Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 13 October 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 6 October 2013, Norwich 1 3 Chelsea; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal           7   16   +6       2.54    75.03     0.18    73.44     8.53    29.67    22.20    41.40    58.78    73.30    91.71     0.00R    0.00  
Liverpool         7   16   +6       2.98    79.84     0.90    69.10     8.58    21.63     9.77    22.51    37.22    53.08    81.64     0.01R    0.00  
Chelsea           7   14   +6       1.13    62.35     1.04    73.18     8.39    31.22    20.72    40.21    57.67    73.07    92.06     0.00     0.00  
Southampton       7   14   +5       3.96    86.93     4.31    51.85     8.36    -2.13     0.11     0.47     1.36     3.05    12.22     2.50R    0.18  
Man_City          7   13   +9      -1.37    33.04     1.61    74.47     8.30    38.79    26.52    47.67    65.17    78.44    94.03     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham         7   13   +1       1.09    61.57    -2.37    62.86     8.63    11.84     2.51     7.18    14.55    25.18    56.23     0.11R    0.00  
Everton           7   12   +1       1.35    64.75    -0.55    60.83     8.60    10.23     1.52     4.83    10.18    18.68    46.26     0.20R    0.02  
Hull              7   11   -1       4.15    89.52     3.17    39.98     7.90   -20.05     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.12     0.74    30.11R    5.36  
Man_Utd           7   10   +1      -2.97    19.43    -4.61    71.95     8.37    31.69    16.49    34.98    52.55    68.54    89.81     0.00R    0.00  
Aston_Villa       7   10   +1       2.54    77.56     4.49    48.96     8.47    -4.74     0.04     0.14     0.56     1.44     7.31     5.46R    0.66  
Newcastle         7   10   -3       1.49    67.03    -0.98    46.20     8.48   -13.89     0.02     0.10     0.27     0.76     4.04    10.89R    1.37  
West_Brom         7    9   +1       0.09    51.90     2.19    50.71     8.49    -0.44     0.06     0.29     0.93     2.20    10.29     3.82R    0.33  
West_Ham          7    8   +2      -1.33    36.53     2.26    46.18     8.31    -4.54     0.02     0.09     0.27     0.70     3.77     9.39R    1.15  
Cardiff           7    8   -2       0.63    59.15     1.18    40.68     8.36   -17.35     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.14     1.05    27.55R    5.43  
Swansea           7    7   -3      -0.72    43.38    -0.31    46.47     8.36    -7.62     0.01     0.07     0.22     0.64     3.97     9.55R    1.04  
Stoke             7    7   -3      -0.76    42.20    -0.57    42.79     7.90   -11.26     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.19     1.31    17.34R    2.32  
Fulham            7    7   -4      -1.78    31.50    -2.69    44.62     8.37   -11.51     0.00     0.02     0.13     0.41     2.56    13.79R    1.97  
Norwich           7    7   -4      -0.76    42.66    -1.39    40.77     8.17   -18.13     0.01     0.01     0.03     0.09     0.88    26.88R    4.96  
Crystal_Palace    7    3   -8      -2.17    25.09    -0.49    27.19     7.64   -38.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    86.02R   58.24  
Sunderland        7    1  -11      -6.20     2.01    -7.38    34.53     8.07   -24.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10    56.37R   16.97  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 6 October 2013, Wigan 2 1 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Burnley         11   26  +14       7.68    95.50     9.08    81.84     9.49    26.10    17.55    33.03    76.21    43.29P    0.01R    0.00  
QPR             10   26  +10       7.91    97.28     3.72    84.93     9.64    24.15    26.62    44.80    84.11    55.92P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester       11   23   +6       4.49    83.31     0.82    79.93     9.36    19.73    12.20    25.13    69.68    36.62P    0.01R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   11   22   +8       5.50    88.21     5.82    75.60     9.45    16.65     5.70    13.45    52.19    21.92P    0.04R    0.00  
Watford         11   21  +11       2.31    68.62     5.20    81.41     9.45    30.75    16.31    32.07    76.09    44.13P    0.01R    0.00  
Blackpool       11   20   +4       3.31    75.81     1.53    71.78     9.41     9.90     2.44     6.64    36.06    12.90P    0.16R    0.00  
Reading         11   19   +5       0.70    55.43     0.19    77.95     9.77    21.97     9.33    20.23    62.49    32.49P    0.04R    0.01  
Bournemouth     11   16   -6       3.81    79.81    -0.70    51.72     9.50   -27.87     0.01     0.05     1.01     0.20P   21.53R    3.92  
Blackburn       11   15   +4      -0.88    42.80     2.83    67.45     9.42    10.89     0.89     2.77    21.69     7.09P    0.65R    0.04  
Derby           11   15   +3      -0.38    47.40     2.61    64.41     9.60     4.93     0.46     1.53    14.05     4.01P    1.66R    0.15  
Ipswich         11   15   +3       0.63    56.32     4.14    61.41     9.46     0.56     0.21     0.76     8.27     2.17P    2.94R    0.25  
Wigan            9   14   +4      -1.54    35.33    -0.90    75.77    10.32    21.29     7.39    16.10    53.89    26.81P    0.13R    0.01  
Huddersfield    11   14   +3      -0.16    49.64     4.25    56.89     9.18    -4.49     0.07     0.19     3.15     0.68P    7.21R    0.82  
Leeds_United    11   14   -3       0.49    55.43    -0.73    59.80     9.27    -6.27     0.09     0.35     5.46     1.29P    4.34R    0.43  
Brighton        11   13   -1      -3.34    23.29    -3.00    66.14     9.25     6.98     0.46     1.81    17.29     5.66P    0.85R    0.06  
Middlesbrough   11   12   -1      -2.91    26.62    -0.73    57.22     9.49    -5.62     0.06     0.23     3.75     0.95P    7.69R    0.96  
Doncaster       10   12   -2       0.88    59.61     1.85    53.11     9.61   -13.97     0.02     0.09     1.55     0.32P   16.51R    2.63  
Millwall        11   11  -11      -2.16    32.72    -8.10    49.10     8.96   -26.40     0.00     0.01     0.38     0.08P   28.71R    5.27  
Birmingham      11   10   -2      -5.30    12.45    -2.35    60.07     9.57     1.20     0.09     0.44     6.68     1.82P    4.31R    0.41  
Bolton          11    8   -9      -6.20     8.26    -7.78    57.85     9.55    -6.27     0.07     0.25     4.04     1.15P    7.05R    0.82  
Charlton        10    7   -6      -6.09     7.72    -5.03    53.73     9.43    -9.56     0.02     0.08     1.61     0.44P   14.24R    2.14  
Sheff_Wed       10    6   -6      -6.20     6.27    -3.81    47.21     9.30   -18.42     0.00     0.01     0.31     0.05P   35.63R    8.02  
Yeovil          11    5  -12      -3.84    18.27    -1.96    35.74     8.79   -40.50     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   82.70R   50.36  
Barnsley        11    5  -16      -4.69    13.09    -6.95    41.20     8.99   -35.73     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   63.58R   23.70  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 13 October 2013, Bradford 0 1 Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient   11   29  +19       9.75    98.67    12.67    84.71     9.60    30.54     8.09    25.86    88.95    40.69P    0.01R    0.00  
Peterborough    11   28  +15       6.40    92.05     4.46    96.28     9.69    48.13    43.84    76.17    98.76    83.67P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   10   25  +14       5.29    88.97     4.80    96.23     9.83    48.44    43.69    75.53    98.68    83.71P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford        11   21  +12       5.88    88.75    11.95    63.44     9.83     2.91     0.08     0.59    17.02     3.18P    4.30R    0.36  
Preston         11   19   +5       3.52    77.80     4.48    72.01     9.65    12.35     0.45     2.75    45.93    11.53P    0.48R    0.02  
Rotherham       11   19   +1       6.54    91.58     5.39    59.50     9.89   -12.25     0.03     0.20     8.70     1.34P   10.47R    1.36  
Swindon         11   17   +7      -1.79    34.58     1.28    78.98     9.53    28.13     2.43    10.92    74.77    31.26P    0.05R    0.00  
MK_Dons         11   16   +4      -1.72    35.75     0.01    75.04     9.64    20.62     1.04     5.31    59.88    20.43P    0.20R    0.00  
Crawley_Town    10   16   +3       2.72    73.46     4.10    64.23     9.97     0.66     0.08     0.58    18.95     3.69P    3.89R    0.38  
Walsall         11   16   +1       0.49    54.46     0.44    64.43     9.56     1.39     0.08     0.54    18.36     4.03P    3.11R    0.28  
Brentford       11   15   -2      -1.56    37.46    -4.21    64.27     9.50    -0.26     0.06     0.51    17.66     4.14P    3.34R    0.30  
Port_Vale       11   14   -3       1.38    62.51     1.16    55.90     9.86   -13.28     0.01     0.05     4.82     0.79P   18.24R    3.19  
Shrewsbury      11   12   -1      -1.27    40.26     1.73    56.58     9.33    -6.22     0.01     0.05     4.41     0.81P   14.36R    2.10  
Colchester      11   12   -4      -0.65    45.58    -0.22    52.38     9.26   -15.97     0.00     0.01     1.74     0.27P   27.55R    5.54  
Carlisle        10   12   -9       0.84    59.06    -4.76    50.08     9.54   -29.36     0.00     0.00     1.26     0.13P   38.32R    9.69  
Coventry        11   10   +6       1.68    63.17     1.00    63.26     9.86    13.75     0.07     0.53    17.53     4.96P    4.47R    0.46  
Gillingham      11    9   -6      -2.88    27.30    -0.73    49.20     9.62   -18.55     0.00     0.01     1.01     0.19P   40.24R   11.15  
Crewe           11    9  -15      -1.33    39.91    -6.71    44.24     9.09   -37.05     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.04P   63.07R   25.11  
Oldham          10    8   -3      -3.99    18.06    -0.21    49.29     9.48   -15.59     0.00     0.00     0.94     0.16P   39.13R   10.21  
Stevenage       11    8  -10      -4.34    16.78    -5.80    47.88     9.22   -22.80     0.00     0.00     0.48     0.08P   46.04R   13.10  
Tranmere        11    8  -11      -5.55    11.00    -8.67    50.50     9.38   -19.56     0.00     0.01     1.11     0.22P   34.96R    8.36  
Notts_County    10    7   -6      -6.80     5.73    -5.99    55.66     9.82    -7.74     0.01     0.05     4.49     0.95P   17.80R    3.20  
Bristol_City    10    6   -6      -7.31     4.92    -4.97    59.30    10.70    -0.46     0.04     0.27    10.83     2.87P   11.74R    2.07  
Sheff_Utd       11    5  -11     -10.29     0.93   -11.23    55.19     9.51    -7.82     0.00     0.04     3.52     0.85P   18.26R    3.12  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 12 October 2013, AFC_Wimbledon 1 1 Accrington_Stanley; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield         11   23   +9       4.92    85.55     4.53    83.13     9.41    26.84    33.45    65.23    89.56    72.26P    0.00R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       11   22   +8       6.11    90.21     6.82    72.56     9.62    11.84     6.24    22.84    55.58    29.89P    0.14R    0.02  
Oxford_Utd           11   21   +9       4.74    83.95     7.29    76.10     9.70    19.64    12.02    36.22    70.12    44.75P    0.06R    0.01  
Morecambe            11   21   +5       5.71    88.77     4.74    71.37     9.66     8.52     5.07    19.24    50.44    25.98P    0.22R    0.04  
Rochdale             11   20   +5       3.43    76.53     2.81    72.83     9.78    12.22     6.85    23.90    56.59    31.54P    0.14R    0.03  
Exeter               11   20   +1       3.15    74.75    -1.60    68.78     9.65     2.17     3.02    13.14    39.20    19.14P    0.52R    0.13  
Mansfield            11   19   +4       5.17    86.25     5.91    63.13     9.89    -1.91     0.95     5.13    20.90     8.20P    2.49R    0.79  
Scunthorpe           10   17   +5      -0.57    44.24    -0.73    76.21    10.24    19.59    14.12    37.58    69.30    47.22P    0.10R    0.03  
Wycombe              11   17   +3       1.19    60.29     1.93    66.22     9.64     4.69     1.82     8.64    30.61    13.51P    1.11R    0.28  
Southend             11   17   +2       0.80    57.24     0.26    72.20     9.54    12.68     5.50    21.81    54.57    30.68P    0.19R    0.04  
AFC_Wimbledon        11   17   +1       3.67    78.96     3.69    58.14     9.32    -9.66     0.22     1.44     8.87     2.74P    5.89R    1.93  
Newport_County       11   16   +1       4.28    82.99     6.40    51.98     9.44   -17.86     0.06     0.37     2.84     0.75P   19.43R    7.89  
Dag_&_Red            11   16   +0       1.28    61.32     0.57    59.61     9.48    -6.58     0.31     2.21    11.66     4.12P    4.55R    1.39  
Burton_Albion        11   15   -2       1.07    59.66    -0.10    61.89     9.70    -4.15     0.62     3.75    17.12     6.57P    3.20R    1.01  
Portsmouth           11   13   -1      -5.50    13.32    -6.16    72.63    10.24    16.99     7.44    25.16    56.87    35.81P    0.32R    0.08  
Hartlepool           11   12   -1      -4.37    18.09    -2.95    64.16     9.91     5.29     1.35     6.44    24.86    11.68P    1.91R    0.55  
Cheltenham           11   12   -8      -2.16    32.88    -6.55    58.62     9.48   -10.13     0.19     1.61     9.57     3.30P    6.01R    1.92  
York                 10   11   -1      -1.12    41.09     1.25    53.46     9.34   -10.82     0.07     0.50     3.64     1.12P   14.49R    5.80  
Plymouth             11   11   -6      -1.95    34.17    -3.20    53.52     9.00   -12.93     0.02     0.30     2.93     0.80P   13.88R    5.03  
Bristol_Rovers       11   10   -5      -3.56    22.42    -2.76    52.56     9.43   -13.58     0.04     0.34     3.02     0.91P   17.12R    7.15  
Bury                 11    9   -2      -7.15     6.54    -3.61    60.53    10.15     3.21     0.54     3.44    15.94     7.17P    4.85R    1.60  
Torquay              11    9   -8      -4.93    14.50    -6.20    52.66     9.46   -14.70     0.06     0.42     3.23     1.06P   17.12R    7.16  
Northampton          11    8   -7      -6.07     9.02    -5.61    51.86     9.39   -13.01     0.03     0.29     2.48     0.77P   18.96R    7.92  
Accrington_Stanley   11    3  -12      -8.60     1.60    -6.77    40.13     8.98   -28.33     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P   67.29R   49.21  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 13 October 2013, Barnet 1 1 Wrexham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd    15   35  +17      10.87    98.17    11.62    85.57     8.35    29.35    39.65    89.46    51.21P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    15   29   +8       2.29    65.77    -1.59    81.21     8.31    23.06    20.11    77.03    36.00P    0.00     0.00  
Luton            15   27  +13       1.34    59.59     4.91    80.63     8.45    30.12    19.37    75.86    35.58P    0.00R    0.00  
Salisbury        15   27   +5       7.28    90.46     6.24    66.20     8.93     0.17     1.03    16.01     3.47P    1.24R    0.01  
Nuneaton         15   26   +3       7.00    90.24     5.37    66.36     8.27    -0.12     0.69    14.37     2.73P    0.84R    0.01  
Welling          15   25   +7       5.05    81.08     8.07    67.80     9.05     7.16     1.55    21.37     4.98P    0.96R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   15   25   +6       4.46    79.40     5.94    67.61     8.41     6.00     1.12    18.94     4.02P    0.57R    0.00  
Grimsby          15   24   +5      -0.80    43.99    -1.39    75.28     8.39    18.45     6.53    52.07    19.09P    0.04R    0.00  
Barnet           15   22   +6      -4.44    20.77    -3.15    74.51     8.67    21.67     6.80    49.50    19.70P    0.06R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     15   22   +4       1.36    60.41     3.71    64.17     8.44     3.74     0.38    10.55     2.26P    1.61R    0.02  
Gateshead        15   22   +1       1.22    59.25     0.73    63.08     8.30    -1.13     0.27     8.06     1.58P    2.08R    0.02  
Halifax          15   22   +0       4.13    77.57     4.96    60.06     9.08    -8.01     0.22     5.46     0.98P    6.46R    0.22  
Alfreton_Town    15   22   -2       3.42    73.91     1.55    60.54     8.47    -9.31     0.14     4.81     0.82P    4.70R    0.11  
Forest_Green     15   18   +2      -4.72    19.09    -1.43    63.27     8.55     6.19     0.32     9.21     2.31P    2.36R    0.03  
Macclesfield     15   18   -2      -2.47    32.74    -1.92    60.40     8.43    -2.00     0.12     4.51     1.00P    4.48R    0.10  
Hereford         15   17   -2      -5.24    17.05    -4.54    61.68     8.32     1.62     0.16     6.24     1.51P    3.23R    0.06  
Southport        15   17   -6      -0.85    44.87    -1.65    53.48     8.19   -16.30     0.00     0.66     0.09P   18.93R    0.80  
Wrexham          15   16   -4      -8.03     6.35    -9.52    65.77     8.40     7.03     0.60    14.01     4.37P    1.07R    0.01  
Tamworth         15   16   -8       0.24    53.27    -0.89    51.47     8.06   -18.58     0.00     0.31     0.05P   26.15R    1.30  
Dartford         15   15  -10      -2.77    30.76    -5.59    52.08     8.24   -18.47     0.00     0.46     0.08P   23.87R    1.28  
Woking           15   14   -7      -4.16    22.66    -2.84    48.01     8.15   -21.48     0.00     0.12     0.02P   42.62R    3.00  
Chester          15   13  -10      -1.49    40.24    -0.72    44.62     8.34   -26.35     0.00     0.06     0.00P   59.83R    7.53  
Aldershot        15   12   +3      -2.88    29.79    -3.48    67.54     8.55    22.78     0.94    20.94     8.14P    0.79R    0.01  
Hyde_United      15    2  -29     -10.44     0.58   -14.39    29.08     7.65   -55.57     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.13R   85.47  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10