Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 12 October 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 6 October 2013, Norwich 1 3 Chelsea; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal           7   16   +6       2.56    75.39     0.19    73.39     8.54    29.58    22.15    41.43    58.39    72.81    91.79     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool         7   16   +6       2.99    79.90     0.86    69.13     8.55    21.71     9.77    22.51    37.61    53.78    82.16     0.01R    0.00  
Chelsea           7   14   +6       1.11    62.05     1.03    73.25     8.43    31.37    21.15    40.84    58.64    73.53    92.16     0.00     0.00  
Southampton       7   14   +5       3.94    86.67     4.29    51.85     8.35    -2.07     0.11     0.45     1.26     2.92    12.30     2.58R    0.19  
Man_City          7   13   +9      -1.36    33.09     1.62    74.44     8.24    38.71    26.38    47.97    65.07    78.68    94.14     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham         7   13   +1       1.15    62.20    -2.27    62.55     8.58    11.38     2.24     6.65    13.98    24.22    54.84     0.08R    0.00  
Everton           7   12   +1       1.35    64.77    -0.55    60.95     8.53    10.37     1.53     4.74    10.31    18.87    47.09     0.17R    0.00  
Hull              7   11   -1       4.17    89.72     3.20    39.80     7.94   -20.26     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.08     0.68    30.94R    5.75  
Man_Utd           7   10   +1      -2.92    19.82    -4.53    71.86     8.40    31.54    16.52    34.74    52.28    68.44    89.42     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa       7   10   +1       2.56    78.01     4.53    48.88     8.43    -4.76     0.03     0.12     0.50     1.30     6.93     5.90R    0.68  
Newcastle         7   10   -3       1.45    66.67    -1.03    46.34     8.47   -13.68     0.01     0.08     0.26     0.78     4.14    10.58R    1.41  
West_Brom         7    9   +1       0.10    52.06     2.15    50.78     8.49    -0.31     0.07     0.27     0.92     2.42    10.50     3.62R    0.32  
West_Ham          7    8   +2      -1.36    36.23     2.24    46.16     8.26    -4.57     0.01     0.07     0.28     0.71     3.79     9.38R    1.20  
Cardiff           7    8   -2       0.64    59.18     1.19    40.60     8.40   -17.58     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.16     1.05    28.15R    5.47  
Swansea           7    7   -3      -0.70    43.75    -0.27    46.41     8.32    -7.66     0.01     0.06     0.22     0.64     3.84     9.57R    1.06  
Stoke             7    7   -3      -0.79    42.06    -0.61    42.96     7.95   -11.04     0.00     0.02     0.07     0.17     1.45    17.01R    2.15  
Fulham            7    7   -4      -1.82    31.17    -2.77    44.89     8.26   -11.09     0.01     0.03     0.13     0.38     2.80    12.79R    1.73  
Norwich           7    7   -4      -0.79    42.34    -1.43    40.79     8.16   -18.09     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.11     0.79    26.61R    5.08  
Crystal_Palace    7    3   -8      -2.16    25.15    -0.48    27.08     7.66   -38.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    86.39R   58.60  
Sunderland        7    1  -11      -6.20     1.97    -7.36    34.61     8.03   -24.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.12    56.22R   16.34  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 6 October 2013, Wigan 2 1 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Burnley         11   26  +14       7.71    95.47     9.16    81.82     9.44    26.07    16.88    32.75    76.35    43.02P    0.00R    0.00  
QPR             10   26  +10       7.85    97.14     3.63    85.17     9.76    24.44    27.75    45.64    84.37    56.26P    0.00R    0.00  
Leicester       11   23   +6       4.55    83.56     0.92    79.82     9.42    19.58    11.82    25.08    68.89    36.24P    0.01R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   11   22   +8       5.51    88.64     5.84    75.66     9.39    16.74     5.60    13.41    52.85    22.33P    0.04R    0.00  
Watford         11   21  +11       2.34    68.81     5.25    81.32     9.54    30.57    16.28    31.67    75.79    43.69P    0.01R    0.00  
Blackpool       11   20   +4       3.26    75.61     1.43    72.02     9.34    10.23     2.58     6.80    36.89    13.53P    0.13R    0.01  
Reading         11   19   +5       0.79    56.16     0.31    77.74     9.76    21.64     9.03    19.68    61.68    31.74P    0.05R    0.00  
Bournemouth     11   16   -6       3.90    80.11    -0.60    51.53     9.49   -28.11     0.01     0.05     1.02     0.18P   22.07R    3.86  
Blackburn       11   15   +4      -0.93    42.49     2.72    67.57     9.41    11.19     0.91     2.75    22.02     7.14P    0.65R    0.03  
Derby           11   15   +3      -0.43    47.07     2.53    64.56     9.53     5.24     0.45     1.59    14.17     4.17P    1.56R    0.12  
Ipswich         11   15   +3       0.57    55.69     4.05    61.47     9.45     0.64     0.18     0.68     8.34     2.03P    3.08R    0.28  
Wigan            9   14   +4      -1.55    35.61    -0.89    75.77    10.53    21.34     7.58    16.49    53.92    27.30P    0.18R    0.01  
Huddersfield    11   14   +3      -0.20    49.26     4.20    56.87     9.15    -4.48     0.07     0.20     3.05     0.71P    7.16R    0.82  
Leeds_United    11   14   -3       0.48    55.42    -0.76    59.77     9.35    -6.33     0.08     0.38     5.71     1.41P    4.35R    0.49  
Brighton        11   13   -1      -3.30    23.53    -2.96    66.08     9.27     6.81     0.50     1.74    17.06     5.59P    0.87R    0.05  
Middlesbrough   11   12   -1      -2.86    26.76    -0.66    57.15     9.47    -5.65     0.07     0.21     3.68     0.85P    7.75R    0.87  
Doncaster       10   12   -2       0.83    59.25     1.79    53.40     9.72   -13.49     0.04     0.11     1.79     0.42P   16.10R    2.57  
Millwall        11   11  -11      -2.12    32.83    -8.08    49.03     9.00   -26.51     0.00     0.02     0.39     0.10P   28.98R    5.26  
Birmingham      11   10   -2      -5.31    12.28    -2.33    59.83     9.53     0.88     0.11     0.47     6.21     1.76P    4.51R    0.45  
Bolton          11    8   -9      -6.17     8.13    -7.72    57.81     9.51    -6.38     0.05     0.22     3.86     1.05P    7.25R    0.82  
Charlton        10    7   -6      -6.10     7.65    -5.08    53.61     9.41    -9.68     0.01     0.07     1.58     0.39P   14.24R    2.17  
Sheff_Wed       10    6   -6      -6.14     6.63    -3.74    47.11     9.41   -18.71     0.00     0.00     0.33     0.08P   36.17R    8.40  
Yeovil          11    5  -12      -3.88    17.91    -2.03    35.82     8.82   -40.44     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    82.17R   50.11  
Barnsley        11    5  -16      -4.70    13.01    -6.98    41.28     9.01   -35.59     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   62.65R   23.69  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 12 October 2013, Colchester 1 1 Walsall; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient   11   29  +19       9.69    98.48    12.60    84.73     9.65    30.57     8.16    26.10    88.39    40.67P    0.00R    0.00  
Peterborough    11   28  +15       6.32    91.67     4.39    96.21     9.82    47.93    43.92    75.59    98.63    83.08P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   10   25  +14       5.36    89.19     4.89    96.15     9.89    48.44    43.38    75.38    98.63    83.47P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford        10   21  +13       7.21    94.21    12.92    65.67    10.11     5.16     0.21     1.18    23.10     4.72P    2.65R    0.26  
Preston         11   19   +5       3.50    77.75     4.43    71.95     9.67    12.29     0.52     2.82    45.23    11.50P    0.46R    0.02  
Rotherham       11   19   +1       6.56    91.64     5.40    59.47     9.93   -12.27     0.02     0.24     8.65     1.40P   10.12R    1.24  
Swindon         11   17   +7      -1.79    34.63     1.31    79.03     9.50    28.18     2.40    10.69    74.83    31.48P    0.05R    0.01  
MK_Dons         11   16   +4      -1.73    35.44     0.00    75.09     9.65    20.78     1.08     5.49    59.50    20.62P    0.19R    0.00  
Crawley_Town    10   16   +3       2.70    73.29     4.03    64.29    10.00     0.79     0.07     0.54    19.08     3.70P    3.79R    0.38  
Walsall         11   16   +1       0.56    55.15     0.50    64.17     9.54     1.04     0.07     0.47    17.24     3.68P    3.20R    0.22  
Brentford       11   15   -2      -1.61    37.13    -4.28    64.49     9.59    -0.01     0.06     0.51    18.30     4.34P    3.12R    0.27  
Port_Vale       11   14   -3       1.42    62.81     1.19    55.86     9.76   -13.39     0.01     0.05     4.33     0.74P   17.48R    2.88  
Shrewsbury      11   12   -1      -1.33    39.79     1.65    56.82     9.27    -5.92     0.01     0.04     4.46     0.81P   13.26R    1.84  
Colchester      11   12   -4      -0.65    45.60    -0.22    52.42     9.21   -15.88     0.00     0.01     1.68     0.25P   26.80R    4.94  
Carlisle        10   12   -9       0.92    59.45    -4.65    49.88     9.53   -29.63     0.00     0.01     1.10     0.16P   38.49R    9.97  
Gillingham      11    9   -6      -2.84    27.84    -0.69    49.30     9.71   -18.35     0.00     0.01     1.03     0.20P   39.46R   10.65  
Crewe           11    9  -15      -1.41    39.31    -6.80    44.34     9.17   -36.89     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.02P   61.58R   24.05  
Oldham          10    8   -3      -3.97    18.25    -0.16    49.14     9.56   -15.90     0.00     0.01     0.93     0.14P   39.58R   10.11  
Stevenage       11    8  -10      -4.30    17.32    -5.76    47.69     9.17   -22.99     0.00     0.00     0.48     0.08P   45.73R   12.70  
Coventry        10    7   +5       0.41    53.40     0.59    61.61    10.09    12.67     0.07     0.47    13.82     3.93P    6.23R    0.73  
Notts_County    10    7   -6      -6.74     5.74    -5.88    55.46     9.93    -8.12     0.01     0.06     4.38     0.95P   18.08R    3.13  
Bristol_City    10    6   -6      -7.38     4.76    -5.10    59.64    10.61     0.15     0.02     0.24    10.69     2.80P   10.75R    1.81  
Sheff_Utd       10    5  -10      -9.19     1.48   -10.70    56.48     9.69    -6.84     0.00     0.07     4.61     1.10P   14.99R    2.51  
Tranmere        10    5  -12      -7.22     4.04    -9.67    48.14     9.56   -21.81     0.00     0.01     0.74     0.15P   43.96R   12.28  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 12 October 2013, AFC_Wimbledon 1 1 Accrington_Stanley; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield         11   23   +9       4.86    85.24     4.46    83.31     9.52    27.09    34.12    65.34    89.59    72.34P    0.00R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       11   22   +8       6.02    89.62     6.71    72.75     9.61    12.09     6.42    23.29    56.33    30.60P    0.15R    0.03  
Oxford_Utd           11   21   +9       4.71    83.81     7.23    76.18     9.58    19.76    11.90    36.20    70.35    44.74P    0.06R    0.01  
Morecambe            11   21   +5       5.65    88.62     4.68    71.36     9.75     8.50     5.15    19.44    50.11    26.06P    0.25R    0.05  
Rochdale             11   20   +5       3.46    76.97     2.87    72.78     9.66    12.10     6.29    23.59    56.61    31.47P    0.17R    0.03  
Exeter               11   20   +1       3.19    75.05    -1.57    68.86     9.67     2.21     3.09    13.18    39.54    18.99P    0.51R    0.13  
Mansfield            11   19   +4       5.06    85.64     5.77    63.47     9.89    -1.42     1.09     5.70    21.67     8.69P    2.32R    0.68  
Scunthorpe           10   17   +5      -0.53    44.92    -0.68    76.07    10.27    19.39    13.58    36.96    68.67    46.71P    0.11R    0.04  
Wycombe              11   17   +3       1.24    60.88     1.98    65.88     9.65     4.26     1.67     7.97    29.25    12.94P    1.16R    0.30  
Southend             11   17   +2       0.87    57.84     0.37    72.17     9.53    12.64     5.61    21.43    54.34    30.39P    0.17R    0.03  
AFC_Wimbledon        11   17   +1       3.70    79.08     3.75    58.02     9.36    -9.88     0.15     1.40     8.53     2.52P    6.23R    2.01  
Newport_County       11   16   +1       4.30    82.76     6.43    51.91     9.48   -17.97     0.04     0.37     2.86     0.76P   19.57R    7.95  
Dag_&_Red            11   16   +0       1.25    61.15     0.52    59.68     9.35    -6.44     0.22     2.04    11.67     3.91P    4.29R    1.33  
Burton_Albion        11   15   -2       1.01    59.03    -0.17    62.00     9.77    -4.05     0.64     3.72    17.39     6.61P    3.31R    0.99  
Portsmouth           11   13   -1      -5.56    12.84    -6.27    72.89    10.09    17.46     7.78    25.84    57.65    36.58P    0.27R    0.05  
Hartlepool           11   12   -1      -4.39    17.96    -2.99    64.31     9.92     5.58     1.29     6.73    25.17    11.95P    1.91R    0.50  
Cheltenham           11   12   -8      -2.08    33.78    -6.42    58.43     9.54   -10.42     0.21     1.56     9.38     3.35P    6.16R    1.98  
York                 10   11   -1      -1.19    40.48     1.16    53.64     9.46   -10.65     0.09     0.52     3.93     1.17P   14.08R    5.53  
Plymouth             11   11   -6      -1.89    34.57    -3.12    53.43     9.12   -13.12     0.05     0.37     3.06     0.88P   14.42R    5.28  
Bristol_Rovers       11   10   -5      -3.60    22.32    -2.83    52.77     9.46   -13.26     0.03     0.41     3.32     1.01P   16.42R    6.83  
Bury                 11    9   -2      -7.14     6.46    -3.59    60.32    10.11     2.93     0.51     3.30    15.14     6.60P    4.81R    1.58  
Torquay              11    9   -8      -4.84    14.98    -6.08    52.46     9.48   -15.02     0.05     0.41     2.92     0.97P   17.49R    7.15  
Northampton          11    8   -7      -6.04     9.34    -5.53    51.73     9.34   -13.25     0.02     0.24     2.42     0.74P   18.93R    7.93  
Accrington_Stanley   11    3  -12      -8.55     1.60    -6.67    40.01     8.98   -28.54     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P   67.20R   49.58  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 12 October 2013, Chester 0 0 Cambridge_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd    15   35  +17      10.84    98.13    11.59    85.56     8.38    29.35    39.13    89.22    50.70P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    15   29   +8       2.15    65.08    -1.80    81.34     8.32    23.29    20.06    77.10    36.21P    0.00R    0.00  
Luton            15   27  +13       1.32    59.58     4.86    80.67     8.41    30.20    18.81    76.12    35.31P    0.01R    0.00  
Salisbury        15   27   +5       7.45    91.23     6.52    65.87     8.82    -0.33     0.86    14.45     2.86P    1.46R    0.01  
Nuneaton         15   26   +3       6.97    90.18     5.31    66.50     8.30     0.11     0.72    14.65     2.75P    0.79R    0.00  
Welling          15   25   +7       4.92    80.24     7.89    67.95     9.11     7.38     1.61    22.00     5.32P    0.97R    0.01  
Braintree_Town   15   25   +6       4.50    79.64     6.01    67.56     8.40     5.80     1.08    18.54     3.91P    0.59R    0.00  
Grimsby          15   24   +5      -0.82    43.62    -1.42    75.27     8.28    18.48     6.25    51.43    18.45P    0.02R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     15   22   +4       1.38    60.50     3.74    64.06     8.43     3.60     0.32    10.02     2.05P    1.64R    0.02  
Gateshead        15   22   +1       1.20    59.22     0.71    63.14     8.38    -1.00     0.21     8.15     1.55P    2.19R    0.03  
Halifax          15   22   +0       4.01    76.85     4.77    60.36     9.04    -7.47     0.21     5.68     1.08P    5.96R    0.19  
Alfreton_Town    15   22   -2       3.47    74.33     1.62    60.50     8.38    -9.38     0.13     4.46     0.77P    4.76R    0.12  
Barnet           14   21   +6      -3.87    23.04    -2.89    75.58     8.89    22.79     8.47    53.86    22.45P    0.08R    0.00  
Forest_Green     15   18   +2      -4.67    19.26    -1.39    63.33     8.51     6.25     0.34     9.26     2.29P    2.16R    0.03  
Macclesfield     15   18   -2      -2.46    32.88    -1.87    60.36     8.39    -2.07     0.12     4.41     0.94P    4.44R    0.10  
Hereford         15   17   -2      -5.27    17.03    -4.60    61.83     8.37     1.82     0.17     6.47     1.64P    3.08R    0.06  
Southport        15   17   -6      -0.88    44.50    -1.73    53.65     8.19   -16.01     0.01     0.74     0.13P   18.41R    0.68  
Tamworth         15   16   -8       0.30    53.82    -0.83    51.35     8.04   -18.75     0.00     0.30     0.05P   26.85R    1.32  
Wrexham          14   15   -4      -7.82     6.33    -9.75    65.24     8.56     5.69     0.61    13.08     4.05P    1.39R    0.02  
Dartford         15   15  -10      -2.69    31.11    -5.47    52.01     8.20   -18.56     0.01     0.36     0.06P   24.38R    1.34  
Woking           15   14   -7      -4.30    21.72    -3.05    48.20     8.11   -21.10     0.00     0.11     0.02P   41.45R    2.80  
Chester          15   13  -10      -1.43    40.92    -0.60    44.48     8.36   -26.58     0.00     0.05     0.01P   60.43R    7.58  
Aldershot        15   12   +3      -2.76    30.75    -3.29    67.24     8.51    22.29     0.88    19.51     7.41P    0.81R    0.01  
Hyde_United      15    2  -29     -10.42     0.58   -14.30    28.99     7.67   -55.79     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.11R   85.67  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10