Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 11 October 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 6 October 2013, Norwich 1 3 Chelsea; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal           7   16   +6       2.49    74.64     0.10    73.57     8.48    29.90    22.29    42.04    59.22    73.94    92.05     0.00R    0.00  
Liverpool         7   16   +6       2.98    79.87     0.87    69.12     8.54    21.68     9.65    22.09    36.99    53.38    81.90     0.00R    0.00  
Chelsea           7   14   +6       1.10    62.02     0.98    73.33     8.41    31.56    21.22    40.82    58.74    73.65    92.28     0.00R    0.00  
Southampton       7   14   +5       3.97    87.03     4.32    51.71     8.33    -2.32     0.10     0.44     1.27     2.94    11.95     2.51R    0.16  
Man_City          7   13   +9      -1.41    32.68     1.55    74.53     8.32    38.92    26.83    48.07    65.29    78.56    94.22     0.00R    0.00  
Tottenham         7   13   +1       1.17    62.33    -2.26    62.63     8.55    11.46     2.23     6.67    14.00    24.25    55.20     0.09R    0.00  
Everton           7   12   +1       1.38    64.92    -0.50    60.77     8.48    10.18     1.31     4.41     9.68    18.12    46.25     0.17R    0.01  
Hull              7   11   -1       4.16    89.57     3.19    39.92     7.89   -20.04     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.09     0.69    30.05R    5.57  
Man_Utd           7   10   +1      -2.96    19.32    -4.60    71.95     8.37    31.72    16.22    34.68    52.38    68.42    89.94     0.01R    0.00  
Aston_Villa       7   10   +1       2.53    77.54     4.51    48.96     8.46    -4.69     0.03     0.17     0.51     1.45     7.31     5.64R    0.64  
Newcastle         7   10   -3       1.50    67.30    -0.96    46.20     8.44   -13.93     0.01     0.07     0.26     0.73     3.89    10.55R    1.42  
West_Brom         7    9   +1       0.11    52.20     2.19    50.59     8.55    -0.61     0.07     0.32     0.93     2.29    10.24     3.91R    0.41  
West_Ham          7    8   +2      -1.34    36.21     2.26    46.07     8.36    -4.75     0.02     0.07     0.23     0.69     3.87     9.79R    1.23  
Cardiff           7    8   -2       0.62    59.08     1.17    40.61     8.39   -17.58     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.15     1.01    28.07R    5.56  
Swansea           7    7   -3      -0.68    43.83    -0.24    46.32     8.35    -7.85     0.01     0.07     0.22     0.62     3.87     9.73R    1.15  
Stoke             7    7   -3      -0.76    42.45    -0.56    42.82     7.93   -11.24     0.00     0.02     0.06     0.17     1.35    17.48R    2.27  
Fulham            7    7   -4      -1.80    31.16    -2.73    44.89     8.41   -11.05     0.01     0.04     0.13     0.44     3.01    13.22R    1.85  
Norwich           7    7   -4      -0.77    42.83    -1.40    40.77     8.14   -18.14     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.09     0.82    26.78R    5.03  
Crystal_Palace    7    3   -8      -2.20    24.55    -0.54    27.35     7.76   -38.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    85.62R   57.80  
Sunderland        7    1  -11      -6.19     1.94    -7.36    34.53     8.07   -24.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.16    56.38R   16.89  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 6 October 2013, Wigan 2 1 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Burnley         11   26  +14       7.65    95.45     9.03    81.98     9.40    26.33    17.32    33.30    77.10    43.69P    0.00R    0.00  
QPR             10   26  +10       7.88    97.23     3.68    85.00     9.69    24.26    27.06    44.96    83.97    55.59P    0.00R    0.00  
Leicester       11   23   +6       4.52    83.45     0.87    79.90     9.37    19.64    11.89    24.89    69.42    36.36P    0.01R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   11   22   +8       5.56    88.69     5.93    75.53     9.47    16.56     5.42    13.34    52.17    22.00P    0.06R    0.01  
Watford         11   21  +11       2.29    68.57     5.20    81.36     9.54    30.63    16.50    31.80    75.50    43.74P    0.01R    0.00  
Blackpool       11   20   +4       3.15    74.91     1.30    72.18     9.39    10.47     2.62     7.09    37.29    13.81P    0.11R    0.00  
Reading         11   19   +5       0.75    55.73     0.25    77.89     9.68    21.83     9.06    19.71    62.27    31.65P    0.02R    0.00  
Bournemouth     11   16   -6       3.82    79.71    -0.68    51.72     9.45   -27.89     0.02     0.06     1.15     0.20P   21.22R    3.64  
Blackburn       11   15   +4      -0.83    43.38     2.87    67.34     9.39    10.79     0.80     2.64    21.31     6.82P    0.56R    0.04  
Derby           11   15   +3      -0.36    47.43     2.61    64.35     9.52     4.87     0.45     1.43    13.59     3.93P    1.56R    0.11  
Ipswich         11   15   +3       0.63    56.38     4.13    61.34     9.49     0.45     0.21     0.77     8.22     2.14P    3.00R    0.25  
Wigan            9   14   +4      -1.59    35.29    -0.97    75.90    10.41    21.49     7.63    16.41    54.22    27.47P    0.17R    0.01  
Huddersfield    11   14   +3      -0.25    48.74     4.12    56.98     9.17    -4.33     0.06     0.20     3.08     0.71P    7.03R    0.79  
Leeds_United    11   14   -3       0.49    55.22    -0.75    59.77     9.45    -6.31     0.12     0.44     5.69     1.45P    4.62R    0.49  
Brighton        11   13   -1      -3.33    23.56    -2.99    66.17     9.27     6.96     0.58     1.91    17.21     5.85P    0.85R    0.07  
Middlesbrough   11   12   -1      -2.84    27.12    -0.62    56.97     9.50    -6.05     0.04     0.20     3.40     0.80P    7.82R    0.89  
Doncaster       10   12   -2       0.96    60.30     1.99    52.95     9.63   -14.18     0.02     0.08     1.47     0.34P   16.90R    2.83  
Millwall        11   11  -11      -2.12    32.97    -8.08    49.10     8.95   -26.30     0.00     0.02     0.36     0.08P   28.77R    5.26  
Birmingham      11   10   -2      -5.31    12.06    -2.33    59.98     9.54     1.11     0.13     0.44     6.50     1.78P    4.35R    0.42  
Bolton          11    8   -9      -6.23     8.06    -7.83    58.15     9.57    -5.89     0.05     0.24     4.21     1.17P    6.87R    0.84  
Charlton        10    7   -6      -6.08     7.79    -5.03    53.63     9.43    -9.61     0.01     0.05     1.55     0.36P   14.19R    2.10  
Sheff_Wed       10    6   -6      -6.16     6.62    -3.77    47.04     9.39   -18.70     0.00     0.01     0.30     0.06P   36.63R    8.08  
Yeovil          11    5  -12      -3.86    18.48    -2.01    35.84     8.85   -40.35     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   82.03R   50.08  
Barnsley        11    5  -16      -4.65    13.33    -6.92    41.16     9.00   -35.80     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00    63.21R   24.09  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 5 October 2013, Brentford 0 1 Rotherham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient   10   26  +18       8.32    97.58    11.93    82.32     9.88    28.36     6.41    21.03    81.12    34.93P    0.01R    0.00  
Peterborough    10   25  +14       5.42    89.28     4.47    95.17    10.00    48.33    41.97    74.13    97.91    82.15P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   10   25  +14       5.40    89.62     4.96    95.94     9.73    48.01    45.65    76.52    98.44    84.23P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford        10   21  +13       7.23    94.24    12.95    65.65    10.20     5.11     0.29     1.34    21.60     4.63P    2.62R    0.20  
Preston         10   19   +7       5.02    86.92     6.69    75.88     9.92    18.27     1.56     7.06    59.13    18.65P    0.19R    0.01  
Rotherham       10   19   +5       6.69    92.71     7.41    63.20    10.28    -4.21     0.11     0.64    15.20     2.95P    5.05R    0.36  
MK_Dons         10   16   +5      -0.58    44.47     0.60    76.63     9.87    22.02     1.92     8.63    62.92    24.21P    0.14R    0.00  
Crawley_Town    10   16   +3       2.78    73.78     4.18    64.39     9.92     0.88     0.10     0.67    17.64     3.70P    3.26R    0.26  
Walsall         10   15   +1       0.99    59.45     0.62    65.01     9.84     1.72     0.12     0.76    18.58     4.28P    2.82R    0.20  
Brentford       10   15   -1      -0.22    48.51    -3.24    66.79     9.75     2.55     0.24     1.16    23.07     6.07P    1.71R    0.10  
Swindon         10   14   +3      -2.39    29.20    -1.11    75.72     9.90    21.58     1.49     7.03    59.36    23.35P    0.19R    0.01  
Port_Vale       10   14   -2       2.22    69.65     1.27    56.53    10.20   -13.93     0.02     0.14     5.30     0.99P   15.94R    2.29  
Carlisle        10   12   -9       0.87    58.91    -4.71    49.77     9.46   -29.96     0.00     0.01     0.93     0.15P   37.29R    7.83  
Colchester      10   11   -4      -0.45    47.48    -0.43    52.77     9.46   -15.99     0.00     0.02     1.82     0.29P   24.73R    3.95  
Shrewsbury      10    9   -3      -2.39    30.10     0.51    54.24     9.53    -9.36     0.00     0.04     2.50     0.46P   19.47R    3.00  
Gillingham      10    9   -4      -2.08    32.79     0.38    51.28    10.03   -15.41     0.01     0.02     1.69     0.28P   30.73R    6.25  
Oldham          10    8   -3      -4.02    17.96    -0.21    49.46     9.43   -15.35     0.00     0.01     0.90     0.15P   36.20R    7.12  
Coventry        10    7   +5       0.41    53.12     0.55    61.68    10.09    12.80     0.05     0.41    12.97     3.78P    5.81R    0.60  
Notts_County    10    7   -6      -6.73     6.04    -5.87    55.41     9.91    -8.12     0.01     0.05     3.92     0.85P   17.27R    2.37  
Bristol_City    10    6   -6      -7.42     4.57    -5.14    59.39    10.59    -0.26     0.03     0.26     9.56     2.58P   10.52R    1.46  
Crewe           10    6  -17      -3.09    23.25    -8.79    40.32     9.14   -43.30     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.00P   75.25R   35.90  
Sheff_Utd       10    5  -10      -9.09     1.55   -10.57    56.91     9.74    -6.24     0.01     0.07     4.57     1.16P   13.38R    1.76  
Stevenage       10    5  -11      -5.92     7.45    -6.70    45.18     9.42   -25.43     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.06P   54.69R   16.36  
Tranmere        10    5  -12      -7.25     4.02    -9.75    47.98     9.46   -22.06     0.00     0.00     0.54     0.11P   42.75R    9.97  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 5 October 2013, AFC_Wimbledon 0 2 Northampton; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield         10   22   +9       5.29    88.59     4.54    83.62     9.60    27.05    36.09    66.96    90.24    73.91P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       10   21   +8       6.45    92.69     6.78    72.90     9.77    11.78     6.99    24.95    57.38    32.26P    0.16R    0.03  
Exeter               10   20   +4       4.09    81.89     0.76    72.51     9.93     8.72     6.88    23.44    54.89    30.80P    0.21R    0.04  
Oxford_Utd           10   18   +7       3.62    78.66     6.06    74.10     9.82    17.09     8.61    29.32    62.87    37.72P    0.12R    0.03  
Mansfield            10   18   +4       5.65    89.59     6.14    64.35    10.25    -0.74     1.41     7.24    25.51    10.81P    2.48R    0.76  
Morecambe            10   18   +3       4.28    83.13     3.10    68.52     9.90     4.60     2.98    13.44    39.48    18.73P    0.71R    0.17  
Scunthorpe           10   17   +5      -0.46    45.53    -0.60    76.22    10.29    19.64    14.03    38.21    69.78    48.25P    0.10R    0.03  
Rochdale             10   17   +2       2.70    72.45     1.23    70.51     9.94     8.12     4.63    18.07    47.52    24.94P    0.44R    0.10  
Newport_County       10   16   +4       4.75    86.01     7.97    54.53     9.79   -13.05     0.11     0.83     5.57     1.60P   14.18R    5.21  
Dag_&_Red            10   16   +1       2.65    72.70     1.56    62.07     9.67    -4.02     0.70     4.10    17.69     6.84P    3.05R    0.85  
AFC_Wimbledon        10   16   +1       4.32    83.92     4.12    59.12     9.60    -8.82     0.25     1.95    11.11     3.53P    5.90R    1.88  
Burton_Albion        10   15   -1       2.14    68.73     0.49    63.68     9.95    -2.78     1.12     5.79    22.72     9.20P    2.54R    0.68  
Wycombe              10   14   +2      -0.11    49.42     1.39    64.00     9.78     2.93     1.13     6.23    24.09    10.43P    2.03R    0.59  
Southend             10   14   +1      -0.64    44.68    -0.45    70.11     9.87    10.93     4.07    17.17    46.77    25.13P    0.48R    0.12  
Portsmouth           10   12   -1      -5.01    14.07    -6.03    73.34    10.38    17.56     8.79    28.64    59.47    39.11P    0.28R    0.07  
York                 10   11   -1      -1.14    40.80     1.21    53.69     9.43   -10.66     0.05     0.55     3.88     1.18P   14.63R    5.72  
Plymouth             10   10   -6      -1.79    34.71    -3.48    53.01     9.25   -14.28     0.02     0.30     2.98     0.77P   16.36R    6.16  
Bury                 10    9   +0      -6.04     9.18    -2.01    63.58    10.35     7.70     1.28     6.79    24.71    12.04P    2.92R    0.87  
Hartlepool           10    9   -4      -5.46    11.15    -5.16    59.74    10.14    -1.72     0.52     3.05    13.81     6.06P    5.74R    1.91  
Bristol_Rovers       10    9   -5      -3.39    22.27    -3.01    52.94     9.75   -13.68     0.06     0.57     3.98     1.28P   17.70R    7.21  
Torquay              10    9   -7      -4.03    18.51    -5.96    54.02     9.64   -13.65     0.09     0.73     4.54     1.61P   14.56R    5.71  
Cheltenham           10    9   -9      -3.63    20.64    -7.29    55.88     9.76   -12.84     0.12     1.02     6.46     2.24P   11.27R    4.06  
Northampton          10    8   -5      -5.30    11.20    -4.46    53.98     9.63   -10.03     0.07     0.64     4.45     1.56P   14.51R    5.52  
Accrington_Stanley   10    2  -12      -8.37     1.25    -6.91    39.64     9.16   -29.84     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P   69.64R   52.27  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 8 October 2013, Aldershot 3 3 Luton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd    14   34  +17      11.48    98.95    11.92    86.51     8.64    30.17    43.79    90.34    54.54P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    14   26   +7       0.88    56.01    -2.32    79.76     8.62    22.36    15.64    70.65    31.62P    0.00R    0.00  
Nuneaton         14   25   +3       7.57    92.64     5.70    67.30     8.50     0.67     0.92    17.17     3.29P    0.72R    0.01  
Luton            14   24  +10       1.09    57.99     4.25    79.61     8.64    28.13    15.52    71.10    31.18P    0.00R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   14   24   +6       4.72    81.61     5.79    67.68     8.67     5.49     1.24    19.22     4.24P    0.80R    0.01  
Grimsby          14   24   +6       0.33    52.24    -0.71    77.04     8.59    20.10     9.29    59.50    22.99P    0.04R    0.00  
Salisbury        14   24   +4       5.81    86.18     5.56    63.77     9.25    -2.09     0.63    11.07     2.44P    2.94R    0.06  
Welling          14   22   +5       4.33    78.56     7.52    65.99     9.41     4.69     1.17    16.82     3.85P    2.00R    0.04  
Lincoln_City     14   22   +5       2.47    68.84     4.41    65.90     8.64     5.30     0.66    14.50     3.22P    1.22R    0.01  
Alfreton_Town    14   22   +1       3.99    77.73     3.16    62.70     8.64    -5.01     0.24     7.72     1.35P    3.06R    0.07  
Barnet           14   21   +6      -3.95    22.51    -3.03    75.59     8.88    22.81     8.11    53.49    22.05P    0.08R    0.00  
Halifax          14   21   +0       4.33    79.47     4.84    59.99     9.48    -9.15     0.28     5.94     1.20P    7.66R    0.35  
Gateshead        14   19   -2       0.67    55.88    -0.60    60.72     8.58    -5.22     0.12     5.20     0.98P    4.53R    0.12  
Forest_Green     14   18   +3      -3.26    26.63    -0.37    66.05     8.73     9.39     0.79    15.69     4.13P    1.30R    0.02  
Southport        14   17   -5       0.04    51.28    -1.43    55.12     8.45   -14.70     0.03     1.22     0.22P   14.93R    0.64  
Hereford         14   16   -2      -4.54    19.70    -4.11    63.10     8.50     3.23     0.26     8.36     2.13P    2.43R    0.05  
Tamworth         14   16   -6       0.89    58.49     0.04    52.69     8.35   -16.85     0.01     0.62     0.09P   22.37R    1.28  
Macclesfield     14   15   -3      -4.31    20.18    -3.24    57.59     8.51    -4.70     0.06     2.53     0.50P    8.54R    0.37  
Wrexham          14   15   -4      -8.00     6.03   -10.00    65.43     8.64     5.97     0.65    13.53     4.34P    1.48R    0.02  
Dartford         14   14  -10      -2.75    30.21    -6.18    51.49     8.34   -19.81     0.00     0.38     0.06P   27.32R    1.87  
Woking           14   13   -7      -3.70    24.42    -2.63    48.98     8.37   -20.77     0.00     0.20     0.03P   38.31R    3.02  
Chester          14   12  -10      -1.33    41.44    -0.71    44.40     8.66   -27.63     0.00     0.08     0.01P   61.10R    9.42  
Aldershot        14    9   +2      -4.21    21.42    -4.02    65.36     8.87    21.04     0.61    14.68     5.57P    1.63R    0.05  
Hyde_United      14    2  -26     -10.28     0.53   -13.85    29.93     7.78   -53.42     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.55R   82.59  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10