Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 10 October 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 6 October 2013, Norwich 1 3 Chelsea; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal           7   16   +6       2.56    75.36     0.21    73.44     8.56    29.69    22.54    41.65    58.79    73.27    91.76     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool         7   16   +6       2.96    79.69     0.90    69.06     8.47    21.59     9.55    22.14    37.03    53.34    81.75     0.01R    0.00  
Chelsea           7   14   +6       1.10    62.08     1.03    73.16     8.41    31.13    20.70    40.65    58.28    73.25    91.76     0.00     0.00  
Southampton       7   14   +5       3.93    86.64     4.28    51.84     8.36    -2.13     0.11     0.50     1.41     3.28    12.44     2.57R    0.14  
Man_City          7   13   +9      -1.37    33.05     1.62    74.54     8.25    38.91    26.97    48.38    65.60    78.85    94.32     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham         7   13   +1       1.12    61.75    -2.33    62.79     8.57    11.72     2.43     7.03    14.54    24.94    56.25     0.10R    0.00  
Everton           7   12   +1       1.37    64.83    -0.52    60.77     8.48    10.13     1.41     4.49     9.65    18.25    46.43     0.18R    0.01  
Hull              7   11   -1       4.13    89.34     3.13    40.05     7.88   -19.86     0.00     0.01     0.02     0.08     0.66    29.44R    5.34  
Man_Utd           7   10   +1      -2.93    19.78    -4.54    71.78     8.38    31.37    16.11    34.38    52.15    68.16    89.44     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa       7   10   +1       2.54    77.70     4.51    48.77     8.41    -4.94     0.04     0.19     0.54     1.27     6.93     5.75R    0.65  
Newcastle         7   10   -3       1.46    66.72    -1.02    46.24     8.47   -13.86     0.01     0.06     0.28     0.77     3.98    10.81R    1.44  
West_Brom         7    9   +1       0.12    52.15     2.21    50.64     8.52    -0.52     0.07     0.30     0.97     2.41    10.37     3.85R    0.35  
West_Ham          7    8   +2      -1.30    36.98     2.30    46.11     8.28    -4.70     0.01     0.05     0.19     0.62     3.57     9.72R    1.15  
Cardiff           7    8   -2       0.63    59.21     1.17    40.70     8.39   -17.35     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.13     1.05    27.84R    5.48  
Swansea           7    7   -3      -0.67    44.10    -0.23    46.30     8.33    -7.82     0.02     0.07     0.21     0.60     3.78     9.89R    1.11  
Stoke             7    7   -3      -0.82    41.64    -0.66    43.06     7.96   -10.84     0.00     0.01     0.06     0.17     1.51    16.78R    2.17  
Fulham            7    7   -4      -1.79    31.46    -2.73    44.92     8.41   -11.04     0.01     0.06     0.17     0.48     2.97    13.13R    1.78  
Norwich           7    7   -4      -0.73    43.20    -1.35    40.61     8.19   -18.34     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.12     0.89    27.77R    5.21  
Crystal_Palace    7    3   -8      -2.20    24.61    -0.57    27.23     7.73   -38.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    86.04R   58.39  
Sunderland        7    1  -11      -6.22     1.81    -7.41    34.58     7.99   -24.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.10    56.10R   16.77  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 6 October 2013, Wigan 2 1 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Burnley         11   26  +14       7.61    95.32     8.98    82.14     9.48    26.55    17.52    33.69    77.56    44.29P    0.00R    0.00  
QPR             10   26  +10       7.91    97.21     3.75    84.88     9.67    24.05    26.34    44.39    83.66    55.27P    0.00R    0.00  
Leicester       11   23   +6       4.55    83.58     0.89    79.96     9.39    19.71    12.04    25.03    69.65    36.32P    0.02R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   11   22   +8       5.48    88.26     5.81    75.59     9.40    16.61     5.56    12.97    52.01    21.45P    0.05R    0.00  
Watford         11   21  +11       2.31    68.72     5.19    81.43     9.53    30.79    16.54    32.01    75.93    44.09P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackpool       11   20   +4       3.21    75.08     1.39    72.03     9.37    10.22     2.51     6.81    37.25    13.58P    0.12R    0.01  
Reading         11   19   +5       0.76    55.89     0.27    77.87     9.85    21.86     9.38    20.20    61.95    31.99P    0.04R    0.00  
Bournemouth     11   16   -6       3.88    80.22    -0.58    51.44     9.36   -28.36     0.02     0.07     0.93     0.18P   21.95R    3.89  
Blackburn       11   15   +4      -0.89    42.81     2.77    67.45     9.48    10.95     0.81     2.74    21.81     7.10P    0.64R    0.04  
Derby           11   15   +3      -0.36    47.54     2.63    64.46     9.52     5.04     0.41     1.45    13.96     3.99P    1.63R    0.11  
Ipswich         11   15   +3       0.62    56.20     4.11    61.30     9.49     0.42     0.21     0.72     8.19     2.16P    3.07R    0.24  
Wigan            9   14   +4      -1.56    35.40    -0.92    75.79    10.56    21.34     7.79    16.67    53.90    27.54P    0.13R    0.01  
Huddersfield    11   14   +3      -0.22    49.03     4.13    56.93     9.04    -4.40     0.04     0.15     3.10     0.70P    6.84R    0.81  
Leeds_United    11   14   -3       0.45    54.96    -0.76    59.67     9.36    -6.49     0.08     0.36     5.50     1.30P    4.61R    0.44  
Brighton        11   13   -1      -3.17    24.47    -2.79    65.82     9.34     6.47     0.52     1.76    16.66     5.50P    0.91R    0.06  
Middlesbrough   11   12   -1      -2.78    27.57    -0.53    56.94     9.49    -6.10     0.05     0.18     3.50     0.78P    7.88R    0.96  
Doncaster       10   12   -2       0.91    59.81     1.90    53.16     9.55   -13.84     0.02     0.09     1.55     0.35P   16.32R    2.64  
Millwall        11   11  -11      -2.15    32.94    -8.11    49.10     8.94   -26.28     0.00     0.01     0.33     0.06P   28.81R    5.29  
Birmingham      11   10   -2      -5.37    11.99    -2.43    60.22     9.54     1.44     0.11     0.44     6.72     1.87P    4.14R    0.46  
Bolton          11    8   -9      -6.18     8.13    -7.75    57.89     9.54    -6.23     0.05     0.20     3.92     1.03P    7.25R    0.85  
Charlton        10    7   -6      -6.11     7.75    -5.06    53.81     9.48    -9.41     0.01     0.07     1.58     0.41P   13.88R    2.14  
Sheff_Wed       10    6   -6      -6.18     6.45    -3.78    47.03     9.37   -18.65     0.00     0.01     0.29     0.04P   36.55R    8.53  
Yeovil          11    5  -12      -3.95    17.53    -2.20    36.16     8.85   -39.74     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    81.26R   48.40  
Barnsley        11    5  -16      -4.67    13.18    -6.93    41.07     9.05   -35.95     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00    63.89R   25.10  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 5 October 2013, Brentford 0 1 Rotherham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient   10   26  +18       8.25    97.50    11.85    82.38     9.93    28.45     6.12    20.69    81.00    35.10P    0.01R    0.00  
Peterborough    10   25  +14       5.33    88.99     4.30    95.43     9.98    48.87    42.18    74.60    98.03    82.43P    0.00R    0.00  
Wolverhampton   10   25  +14       5.28    88.77     4.72    96.34     9.89    48.92    46.17    77.40    98.45    85.04P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford        10   21  +13       7.09    93.91    12.74    66.07    10.20     5.70     0.28     1.35    22.91     4.99P    2.31R    0.16  
Preston         10   19   +7       5.05    87.19     6.76    75.74     9.90    18.03     1.35     6.73    58.79    18.37P    0.16R    0.01  
Rotherham       10   19   +5       6.75    92.90     7.50    63.06    10.31    -4.51     0.11     0.62    15.12     2.76P    5.01R    0.40  
MK_Dons         10   16   +5      -0.57    44.59     0.63    76.53    10.00    21.88     1.91     8.26    62.14    23.96P    0.16R    0.01  
Crawley_Town    10   16   +3       2.79    73.62     4.18    64.42     9.99     0.93     0.09     0.67    17.97     3.79P    3.31R    0.26  
Walsall         10   15   +1       0.97    59.07     0.63    65.18     9.82     1.93     0.13     0.75    19.17     4.29P    2.72R    0.19  
Brentford       10   15   -1      -0.18    48.61    -3.21    66.75     9.68     2.40     0.17     1.05    22.98     5.93P    1.71R    0.12  
Swindon         10   14   +3      -2.37    29.17    -1.06    75.62     9.80    21.38     1.36     6.78    59.24    22.67P    0.16R    0.01  
Port_Vale       10   14   -2       2.20    69.41     1.26    56.58    10.12   -13.92     0.01     0.11     5.15     0.91P   15.60R    2.11  
Carlisle        10   12   -9       0.86    58.87    -4.73    49.81     9.54   -29.92     0.00     0.01     1.02     0.14P   36.83R    7.76  
Colchester      10   11   -4      -0.33    48.40    -0.26    52.58     9.44   -16.30     0.00     0.01     1.79     0.27P   24.92R    4.14  
Shrewsbury      10    9   -3      -2.39    30.25     0.51    54.18     9.47    -9.48     0.00     0.04     2.38     0.45P   19.63R    2.88  
Gillingham      10    9   -4      -1.99    33.31     0.57    51.03     9.93   -15.89     0.00     0.03     1.46     0.29P   31.35R    6.28  
Oldham          10    8   -3      -3.96    18.22    -0.12    49.23     9.50   -15.75     0.00     0.01     0.82     0.14P   37.19R    7.41  
Coventry        10    7   +5       0.47    53.76     0.66    61.43    10.07    12.38     0.07     0.41    12.31     3.56P    6.01R    0.60  
Notts_County    10    7   -6      -6.79     5.87    -5.94    55.61     9.93    -7.86     0.01     0.06     3.95     0.86P   16.51R    2.33  
Bristol_City    10    6   -6      -7.40     4.54    -5.15    59.43    10.70    -0.23     0.05     0.31     9.78     2.72P   10.67R    1.49  
Crewe           10    6  -17      -3.06    23.49    -8.78    40.37     9.28   -43.27     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   74.59R   35.65  
Sheff_Utd       10    5  -10      -9.12     1.49   -10.60    57.00     9.81    -6.13     0.01     0.10     4.66     1.18P   13.08R    1.78  
Stevenage       10    5  -11      -5.87     7.60    -6.66    45.03     9.35   -25.62     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.04P   55.42R   16.64  
Tranmere        10    5  -12      -7.33     3.90    -9.82    48.02     9.53   -21.94     0.00     0.01     0.60     0.09P   42.65R    9.79  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 5 October 2013, AFC_Wimbledon 0 2 Northampton; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield         10   22   +9       5.30    88.79     4.58    83.63     9.64    27.05    35.97    67.23    90.14    74.05P    0.01R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       10   21   +8       6.44    92.56     6.77    72.81     9.78    11.63     6.88    24.56    56.74    31.57P    0.15R    0.04  
Exeter               10   20   +4       4.17    82.47     0.86    72.08     9.92     8.05     6.34    22.31    53.23    29.74P    0.22R    0.06  
Oxford_Utd           10   18   +7       3.66    78.93     6.11    74.02     9.81    16.98     8.47    28.82    62.38    37.21P    0.15R    0.03  
Mansfield            10   18   +4       5.65    89.56     6.10    64.37    10.14    -0.76     1.42     7.14    25.21    10.57P    2.27R    0.69  
Morecambe            10   18   +3       4.32    83.70     3.13    68.52     9.88     4.62     3.09    13.29    39.48    18.71P    0.72R    0.15  
Scunthorpe           10   17   +5      -0.58    44.39    -0.74    76.59    10.28    20.24    14.59    39.62    70.80    49.53P    0.10R    0.03  
Rochdale             10   17   +2       2.71    72.74     1.27    70.51     9.99     8.16     4.57    17.95    47.78    25.18P    0.48R    0.11  
Newport_County       10   16   +4       4.72    85.90     7.93    54.61     9.88   -12.95     0.14     0.98     5.79     1.76P   14.06R    5.09  
Dag_&_Red            10   16   +1       2.71    73.17     1.65    61.80     9.68    -4.39     0.64     3.72    17.18     6.28P    3.41R    0.96  
AFC_Wimbledon        10   16   +1       4.40    84.23     4.22    58.99     9.61    -9.15     0.30     2.05    11.00     3.54P    5.95R    1.95  
Burton_Albion        10   15   -1       2.13    68.71     0.47    63.85     9.91    -2.44     1.14     5.90    23.33     9.38P    2.30R    0.65  
Wycombe              10   14   +2      -0.09    49.70     1.42    64.01     9.81     2.93     1.19     6.37    24.11    10.52P    2.06R    0.59  
Southend             10   14   +1      -0.65    44.64    -0.45    70.00     9.86    10.85     3.92    16.76    46.37    24.81P    0.52R    0.13  
Portsmouth           10   12   -1      -5.09    13.78    -6.17    73.57    10.43    17.97     9.02    29.33    60.50    39.80P    0.32R    0.08  
York                 10   11   -1      -1.09    41.33     1.31    53.40     9.40   -11.05     0.05     0.55     3.84     1.16P   15.39R    5.93  
Plymouth             10   10   -6      -1.81    34.35    -3.48    53.02     9.26   -14.28     0.03     0.38     3.03     0.93P   16.20R    6.03  
Bury                 10    9   +0      -6.08     8.96    -2.06    63.80    10.38     8.06     1.44     7.16    25.59    12.63P    2.77R    0.85  
Hartlepool           10    9   -4      -5.50    11.06    -5.23    59.87    10.16    -1.50     0.46     3.10    14.29     6.24P    5.73R    1.83  
Bristol_Rovers       10    9   -5      -3.38    22.36    -3.03    52.88     9.71   -13.84     0.08     0.50     3.63     1.17P   17.79R    7.38  
Torquay              10    9   -7      -3.97    18.77    -5.86    53.85     9.67   -13.94     0.08     0.61     4.37     1.46P   15.04R    6.04  
Cheltenham           10    9   -9      -3.68    20.14    -7.36    56.08     9.67   -12.51     0.13     1.04     6.53     2.22P   10.62R    3.77  
Northampton          10    8   -5      -5.34    11.13    -4.55    54.04     9.63    -9.92     0.06     0.63     4.57     1.51P   14.36R    5.69  
Accrington_Stanley   10    2  -12      -8.35     1.25    -6.89    39.67     9.17   -29.81     0.00     0.01     0.10     0.03P   69.38R   51.91  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 8 October 2013, Aldershot 3 3 Luton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd    14   34  +17      11.44    98.92    11.85    86.68     8.55    30.48    44.68    90.67    55.41P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    14   26   +7       0.90    56.15    -2.30    79.69     8.66    22.25    15.57    70.08    30.94P    0.01R    0.00  
Nuneaton         14   25   +3       7.44    92.56     5.48    67.43     8.55     0.94     0.99    17.73     3.40P    0.75R    0.01  
Luton            14   24  +10       1.13    58.46     4.27    79.51     8.58    28.07    14.69    70.96    30.60P    0.01R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   14   24   +6       4.63    81.13     5.67    67.81     8.63     5.68     1.23    19.44     4.20P    0.70R    0.01  
Grimsby          14   24   +6       0.28    51.73    -0.78    77.23     8.61    20.50     9.33    60.33    23.52P    0.03R    0.00  
Salisbury        14   24   +4       5.97    87.05     5.86    63.47     9.11    -2.62     0.56    10.02     2.10P    2.94R    0.04  
Welling          14   22   +5       4.30    78.34     7.45    66.13     9.37     4.86     1.16    16.88     4.12P    1.85R    0.04  
Lincoln_City     14   22   +5       2.38    68.36     4.28    66.05     8.63     5.54     0.79    14.81     3.28P    1.06R    0.01  
Alfreton_Town    14   22   +1       3.82    76.58     2.88    62.89     8.71    -4.62     0.33     8.22     1.43P    2.89R    0.07  
Barnet           14   21   +6      -3.87    23.11    -2.95    75.54     8.85    22.72     8.06    53.38    21.99P    0.08R    0.00  
Halifax          14   21   +0       4.40    79.75     4.99    59.72     9.33    -9.65     0.18     5.32     0.91P    7.73R    0.32  
Gateshead        14   19   -2       0.60    55.16    -0.71    60.86     8.62    -5.09     0.14     5.23     1.02P    4.43R    0.08  
Forest_Green     14   18   +3      -3.21    27.17    -0.33    65.96     8.73     9.28     0.74    15.36     4.19P    1.24R    0.01  
Southport        14   17   -5       0.09    51.72    -1.34    55.00     8.42   -14.88     0.02     1.14     0.20P   15.14R    0.68  
Hereford         14   16   -2      -4.54    19.74    -4.10    63.18     8.62     3.28     0.39     8.97     2.33P    2.50R    0.04  
Tamworth         14   16   -6       0.87    58.09    -0.03    52.78     8.30   -16.75     0.00     0.59     0.09P   21.63R    1.20  
Macclesfield     14   15   -3      -4.21    20.82    -3.15    57.68     8.58    -4.62     0.05     2.67     0.56P    8.68R    0.31  
Wrexham          14   15   -4      -7.98     6.09    -9.96    65.28     8.61     5.79     0.55    12.83     4.07P    1.45R    0.02  
Dartford         14   14  -10      -2.71    30.31    -6.10    51.44     8.38   -19.94     0.00     0.35     0.06P   27.49R    1.71  
Woking           14   13   -7      -3.67    24.63    -2.60    48.94     8.39   -20.77     0.00     0.24     0.02P   38.48R    3.03  
Chester          14   12  -10      -1.29    41.67    -0.62    44.24     8.60   -27.88     0.00     0.06     0.01P   61.71R    9.65  
Aldershot        14    9   +2      -4.25    20.98    -4.08    65.42     8.75    21.16     0.52    14.74     5.56P    1.60R    0.03  
Hyde_United      14    2  -26     -10.22     0.53   -13.69    29.82     7.84   -53.74     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.62R   82.73  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10