Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 9 October 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 6 October 2013, Norwich 1 3 Chelsea; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal           7   16   +6       2.49    74.72     0.09    73.44     8.55    29.65    22.02    41.12    58.31    73.20    91.92     0.00R    0.00  
Liverpool         7   16   +6       2.99    79.79     0.90    69.05     8.52    21.56     9.59    22.23    37.06    53.12    81.67     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea           7   14   +6       1.03    61.36     0.92    73.47     8.34    31.79    21.63    41.48    59.23    74.39    92.70     0.00R    0.00  
Southampton       7   14   +5       3.96    86.88     4.33    51.76     8.28    -2.25     0.10     0.42     1.25     2.84    11.86     2.40R    0.16  
Man_City          7   13   +9      -1.38    33.15     1.59    74.57     8.27    38.95    26.71    48.34    65.69    79.00    94.26     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham         7   13   +1       1.18    62.36    -2.23    62.55     8.58    11.32     2.18     6.74    13.83    24.04    54.65     0.16R    0.00  
Everton           7   12   +1       1.41    65.17    -0.48    60.97     8.51    10.45     1.51     4.62    10.15    18.61    47.10     0.15R    0.00  
Hull              7   11   -1       4.13    89.38     3.15    40.06     7.96   -19.85     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.10     0.73    29.61R    5.42  
Man_Utd           7   10   +1      -2.95    19.50    -4.59    71.80     8.33    31.48    16.12    34.23    51.97    67.93    89.41     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa       7   10   +1       2.56    77.82     4.52    48.99     8.49    -4.67     0.03     0.19     0.55     1.43     7.29     5.65R    0.63  
Newcastle         7   10   -3       1.47    66.83    -1.01    46.25     8.44   -13.78     0.01     0.07     0.27     0.79     4.03    10.67R    1.34  
West_Brom         7    9   +1       0.04    51.23     2.13    50.73     8.52    -0.42     0.05     0.32     0.93     2.33    10.51     3.78R    0.37  
West_Ham          7    8   +2      -1.37    35.98     2.23    46.28     8.26    -4.47     0.01     0.05     0.19     0.65     3.88     9.18R    1.05  
Cardiff           7    8   -2       0.60    58.71     1.15    40.66     8.40   -17.49     0.00     0.02     0.05     0.17     1.01    27.84R    5.52  
Swansea           7    7   -3      -0.66    44.15    -0.21    46.30     8.36    -7.89     0.03     0.08     0.24     0.64     3.86    10.00R    1.09  
Stoke             7    7   -3      -0.76    42.46    -0.56    42.85     7.97   -11.20     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.16     1.27    17.51R    2.44  
Fulham            7    7   -4      -1.75    31.60    -2.67    44.72     8.31   -11.36     0.01     0.06     0.14     0.46     2.84    13.21R    1.79  
Norwich           7    7   -4      -0.78    42.85    -1.42    40.89     8.18   -17.96     0.00     0.02     0.05     0.14     0.88    26.31R    4.91  
Crystal_Palace    7    3   -8      -2.17    25.04    -0.53    27.18     7.70   -38.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.01    86.06R   57.83  
Sunderland        7    1  -11      -6.17     2.00    -7.31    34.30     8.05   -25.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.12    57.47R   17.44  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 6 October 2013, Wigan 2 1 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Burnley         11   26  +14       7.59    95.32     8.94    82.30     9.51    26.78    18.19    34.45    77.94    44.49P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             10   26  +10       7.87    97.22     3.69    84.92     9.75    24.12    26.80    44.76    83.63    55.40P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester       11   23   +6       4.51    83.21     0.84    80.00     9.38    19.77    12.03    25.13    69.88    36.67P    0.01R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   11   22   +8       5.60    88.70     5.97    75.44     9.40    16.41     5.38    12.90    51.47    21.36P    0.05R    0.00  
Watford         11   21  +11       2.39    69.20     5.35    81.08     9.52    30.24    15.66    30.43    75.08    42.61P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool       11   20   +4       3.24    75.17     1.41    71.88     9.35    10.04     2.44     6.59    36.50    13.07P    0.16R    0.00  
Reading         11   19   +5       0.76    55.90     0.28    77.72     9.77    21.60     8.82    19.78    61.58    31.67P    0.04R    0.00  
Bournemouth     11   16   -6       3.85    79.85    -0.62    51.53     9.50   -28.19     0.02     0.04     1.08     0.17P   21.99R    3.94  
Blackburn       11   15   +4      -0.87    42.95     2.83    67.44     9.39    10.90     0.80     2.63    21.58     7.03P    0.65R    0.02  
Derby           11   15   +3      -0.40    47.37     2.58    64.49     9.57     5.10     0.48     1.56    14.12     4.08P    1.60R    0.11  
Ipswich         11   15   +3       0.61    56.18     4.09    61.43     9.53     0.52     0.21     0.72     8.47     2.20P    3.12R    0.22  
Wigan            9   14   +4      -1.65    34.63    -1.07    76.16    10.55    22.00     8.30    17.47    55.29    28.82P    0.10R    0.01  
Huddersfield    11   14   +3      -0.22    49.13     4.14    56.84     9.12    -4.54     0.03     0.12     2.93     0.62P    7.16R    0.76  
Leeds_United    11   14   -3       0.55    55.90    -0.63    59.51     9.22    -6.71     0.08     0.35     4.99     1.16P    4.46R    0.43  
Brighton        11   13   -1      -3.28    23.82    -2.94    66.12     9.29     6.89     0.56     1.95    17.04     5.83P    0.93R    0.07  
Middlesbrough   11   12   -1      -2.80    27.37    -0.53    56.96     9.51    -6.04     0.04     0.21     3.52     0.84P    8.01R    0.99  
Doncaster       10   12   -2       0.79    58.69     1.74    53.54     9.67   -13.30     0.02     0.10     1.75     0.37P   15.41R    2.53  
Millwall        11   11  -11      -2.07    33.58    -7.98    48.77     8.96   -26.88     0.00     0.01     0.33     0.07P   29.95R    5.62  
Birmingham      11   10   -2      -5.34    12.05    -2.38    60.13     9.57     1.30     0.10     0.44     6.63     1.86P    4.21R    0.40  
Bolton          11    8   -9      -6.22     8.24    -7.82    58.08     9.70    -5.99     0.06     0.28     4.35     1.24P    7.15R    0.89  
Charlton        10    7   -6      -6.15     7.46    -5.12    53.71     9.43    -9.53     0.02     0.08     1.51     0.39P   13.91R    2.12  
Sheff_Wed       10    6   -6      -6.17     6.44    -3.79    47.12     9.37   -18.51     0.00     0.01     0.31     0.06P   35.92R    8.25  
Yeovil          11    5  -12      -3.88    17.93    -2.07    35.98     8.84   -40.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   81.58R   49.17  
Barnsley        11    5  -16      -4.66    13.33    -6.93    41.11     8.97   -35.93     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00    63.60R   24.45  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 5 October 2013, Brentford 0 1 Rotherham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient   10   26  +18       8.23    97.53    11.83    82.34     9.88    28.38     6.27    20.86    80.88    34.88P    0.01R    0.00  
Peterborough    10   25  +14       5.40    89.14     4.40    95.35     9.96    48.71    41.60    74.23    98.02    82.22P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   10   25  +14       5.30    89.35     4.75    96.31     9.79    48.83    46.48    77.39    98.51    84.89P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford        10   21  +13       7.11    93.73    12.79    65.97    10.18     5.60     0.23     1.33    22.77     4.93P    2.38R    0.19  
Preston         10   19   +7       5.00    86.78     6.66    75.87     9.98    18.23     1.56     6.91    59.08    18.53P    0.18R    0.01  
Rotherham       10   19   +5       6.75    92.83     7.56    62.92    10.36    -4.72     0.10     0.57    14.94     2.76P    5.51R    0.47  
MK_Dons         10   16   +5      -0.61    44.30     0.55    76.69     9.91    22.13     1.93     8.44    63.07    24.29P    0.09R    0.00  
Crawley_Town    10   16   +3       2.74    73.50     4.12    64.30     9.94     0.80     0.11     0.67    17.56     3.78P    3.38R    0.24  
Walsall         10   15   +1       1.02    59.55     0.67    64.90     9.84     1.55     0.09     0.74    18.33     4.30P    2.91R    0.18  
Brentford       10   15   -1      -0.13    49.24    -3.12    66.57     9.68     2.10     0.15     1.05    22.69     5.68P    1.87R    0.10  
Swindon         10   14   +3      -2.42    28.71    -1.15    75.74     9.78    21.58     1.34     6.68    59.57    22.90P    0.15R    0.00  
Port_Vale       10   14   -2       2.20    69.62     1.21    56.67    10.10   -13.80     0.02     0.15     5.19     0.92P   15.44R    2.10  
Carlisle        10   12   -9       0.86    59.17    -4.74    49.88     9.44   -29.77     0.00     0.02     0.92     0.12P   36.69R    7.67  
Colchester      10   11   -4      -0.40    48.00    -0.34    52.69     9.42   -16.11     0.00     0.01     1.69     0.29P   24.52R    4.09  
Shrewsbury      10    9   -3      -2.33    30.38     0.58    54.09     9.50    -9.67     0.00     0.02     2.38     0.46P   19.92R    2.95  
Gillingham      10    9   -4      -2.08    32.73     0.41    51.31    10.01   -15.34     0.00     0.02     1.67     0.33P   30.53R    6.20  
Oldham          10    8   -3      -3.94    18.61    -0.10    49.14     9.44   -15.84     0.00     0.00     0.80     0.13P   37.42R    7.63  
Coventry        10    7   +5       0.45    53.75     0.65    61.50    10.20    12.50     0.07     0.46    12.99     3.75P    6.15R    0.63  
Notts_County    10    7   -6      -6.81     5.67    -6.01    55.66     9.86    -7.79     0.00     0.07     3.93     0.94P   16.65R    2.29  
Bristol_City    10    6   -6      -7.33     4.77    -5.02    59.31    10.58    -0.44     0.03     0.29     9.52     2.55P   10.53R    1.50  
Crewe           10    6  -17      -3.06    23.69    -8.74    40.30     9.26   -43.35     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.00    74.89R   36.24  
Sheff_Utd       10    5  -10      -9.09     1.51   -10.55    56.93     9.71    -6.23     0.00     0.07     4.52     1.18P   13.04R    1.78  
Stevenage       10    5  -11      -5.90     7.38    -6.67    45.25     9.36   -25.39     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.03P   54.83R   15.90  
Tranmere        10    5  -12      -7.31     3.89    -9.74    48.04     9.56   -21.98     0.00     0.00     0.63     0.13P   42.91R    9.81  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 5 October 2013, AFC_Wimbledon 0 2 Northampton; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield         10   22   +9       5.36    88.88     4.64    83.52     9.72    26.84    35.89    66.42    89.73    73.33P    0.00R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       10   21   +8       6.44    92.44     6.79    72.88     9.87    11.75     7.32    25.02    56.97    32.04P    0.17R    0.04  
Exeter               10   20   +4       4.16    82.47     0.81    72.42     9.82     8.53     6.62    22.97    54.58    30.31P    0.20R    0.04  
Oxford_Utd           10   18   +7       3.70    79.29     6.15    73.91     9.91    16.77     8.44    28.98    61.86    37.18P    0.16R    0.04  
Mansfield            10   18   +4       5.69    89.76     6.16    64.31    10.27    -0.74     1.46     7.38    25.39    10.80P    2.39R    0.72  
Morecambe            10   18   +3       4.30    83.50     3.13    68.51     9.88     4.59     3.02    13.19    39.45    18.84P    0.70R    0.19  
Scunthorpe           10   17   +5      -0.51    45.08    -0.61    76.33    10.27    19.82    14.20    38.66    69.89    48.51P    0.12R    0.03  
Rochdale             10   17   +2       2.67    72.45     1.19    70.58    10.01     8.28     4.82    18.52    47.77    25.46P    0.46R    0.09  
Newport_County       10   16   +4       4.69    85.81     7.87    54.68     9.75   -12.90     0.15     0.95     5.58     1.63P   13.61R    5.09  
Dag_&_Red            10   16   +1       2.66    72.95     1.58    62.01     9.66    -4.06     0.66     4.08    17.72     6.80P    3.17R    0.89  
AFC_Wimbledon        10   16   +1       4.38    84.04     4.20    58.86     9.62    -9.31     0.31     2.06    10.82     3.53P    6.16R    2.04  
Burton_Albion        10   15   -1       2.11    68.51     0.43    63.85     9.91    -2.43     1.09     5.82    23.21     9.51P    2.51R    0.68  
Wycombe              10   14   +2      -0.18    48.97     1.25    64.34     9.84     3.41     1.32     6.72    25.28    11.10P    1.85R    0.50  
Southend             10   14   +1      -0.63    44.90    -0.42    69.95     9.75    10.80     3.87    16.67    46.09    24.82P    0.47R    0.12  
Portsmouth           10   12   -1      -5.03    13.88    -6.05    73.35    10.34    17.62     8.47    28.59    60.05    39.06P    0.35R    0.10  
York                 10   11   -1      -1.14    40.85     1.24    53.53     9.42   -10.90     0.06     0.50     3.84     1.21P   15.08R    5.98  
Plymouth             10   10   -6      -1.89    33.73    -3.60    53.24     9.25   -13.96     0.03     0.34     3.21     0.95P   15.83R    5.88  
Bury                 10    9   +0      -6.09     8.82    -2.08    63.78    10.51     8.02     1.49     7.40    25.89    12.68P    2.98R    0.91  
Hartlepool           10    9   -4      -5.48    11.10    -5.23    59.93    10.03    -1.43     0.47     2.99    14.16     5.99P    5.16R    1.70  
Bristol_Rovers       10    9   -5      -3.37    22.81    -2.99    52.97     9.72   -13.64     0.06     0.54     3.77     1.22P   17.75R    7.30  
Torquay              10    9   -7      -3.89    19.07    -5.75    53.57     9.62   -14.33     0.06     0.54     3.98     1.28P   15.84R    6.33  
Cheltenham           10    9   -9      -3.68    20.34    -7.36    55.92     9.72   -12.74     0.13     1.00     6.39     2.21P   11.03R    3.89  
Northampton          10    8   -5      -5.29    11.35    -4.44    53.72     9.66   -10.43     0.06     0.64     4.25     1.51P   14.99R    6.02  
Accrington_Stanley   10    2  -12      -8.39     1.22    -6.93    39.80     9.17   -29.57     0.00     0.02     0.12     0.03P   69.01R   51.43  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 8 October 2013, Aldershot 3 3 Luton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd    14   34  +17      11.38    98.95    11.78    86.73     8.56    30.56    44.58    91.07    55.40P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    14   26   +7       0.87    56.00    -2.29    79.64     8.57    22.19    15.17    70.07    30.83P    0.00R    0.00  
Nuneaton         14   25   +3       7.50    92.39     5.58    67.38     8.60     0.86     1.05    17.85     3.61P    0.70R    0.01  
Luton            14   24  +10       1.05    57.90     4.19    79.70     8.54    28.34    15.55    71.69    31.68P    0.00R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   14   24   +6       4.67    81.21     5.72    67.62     8.57     5.34     1.19    18.81     4.07P    0.73R    0.01  
Grimsby          14   24   +6       0.27    51.77    -0.77    77.23     8.54    20.39     9.19    60.37    23.16P    0.04R    0.00  
Salisbury        14   24   +4       5.81    86.41     5.59    63.79     9.12    -2.13     0.57    10.82     2.29P    2.81R    0.05  
Welling          14   22   +5       4.39    78.65     7.58    66.00     9.37     4.71     1.18    16.56     3.94P    1.83R    0.04  
Lincoln_City     14   22   +5       2.41    68.44     4.30    66.09     8.63     5.65     0.71    15.09     3.36P    1.09R    0.02  
Alfreton_Town    14   22   +1       3.94    77.57     3.11    62.63     8.69    -5.12     0.29     7.72     1.43P    3.04R    0.08  
Barnet           14   21   +6      -3.91    22.87    -3.00    75.46     8.88    22.64     8.03    53.08    21.94P    0.08R    0.00  
Halifax          14   21   +0       4.32    79.27     4.80    60.07     9.44    -9.01     0.21     5.90     1.06P    7.30R    0.34  
Gateshead        14   19   -2       0.57    54.90    -0.80    60.94     8.59    -4.92     0.17     5.36     1.12P    4.19R    0.10  
Forest_Green     14   18   +3      -3.15    27.56    -0.21    65.80     8.68     9.04     0.70    14.65     3.84P    1.34R    0.03  
Southport        14   17   -5       0.12    51.95    -1.32    55.05     8.45   -14.82     0.03     1.17     0.19P   15.31R    0.69  
Hereford         14   16   -2      -4.55    19.73    -4.08    63.14     8.49     3.23     0.28     8.38     2.11P    2.44R    0.04  
Tamworth         14   16   -6       0.92    58.48     0.05    52.72     8.33   -16.85     0.01     0.56     0.09P   22.23R    1.29  
Macclesfield     14   15   -3      -4.12    21.16    -2.99    57.45     8.53    -4.96     0.04     2.35     0.46P    9.04R    0.36  
Wrexham          14   15   -4      -7.95     6.17    -9.94    65.31     8.65     5.83     0.49    13.25     4.00P    1.55R    0.02  
Dartford         14   14  -10      -2.70    30.37    -6.09    51.43     8.43   -19.95     0.00     0.39     0.07P   27.84R    2.00  
Woking           14   13   -7      -3.77    23.93    -2.75    49.07     8.40   -20.60     0.00     0.20     0.03P   37.67R    2.88  
Chester          14   12  -10      -1.31    41.46    -0.67    44.30     8.64   -27.78     0.00     0.07     0.01P   61.53R    9.45  
Aldershot        14    9   +2      -4.21    21.33    -4.02    65.26     8.86    20.93     0.57    14.59     5.32P    1.83R    0.04  
Hyde_United      14    2  -26     -10.26     0.57   -13.76    29.90     7.84   -53.58     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.39R   82.56  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10