Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 8 October 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 6 October 2013, Norwich 1 3 Chelsea; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal           7   16   +6       2.50    74.87     0.13    73.44     8.53    29.69    22.35    41.30    58.36    72.78    91.66     0.00R    0.00  
Liverpool         7   16   +6       2.95    79.52     0.84    69.21     8.53    21.82     9.78    22.85    37.53    53.95    82.09     0.01R    0.00  
Chelsea           7   14   +6       1.15    62.62     1.08    73.19     8.37    31.20    20.49    40.32    58.23    73.23    91.96     0.00R    0.00  
Southampton       7   14   +5       3.97    86.99     4.32    51.77     8.37    -2.22     0.12     0.45     1.23     2.92    12.22     2.52R    0.14  
Man_City          7   13   +9      -1.39    32.94     1.59    74.66     8.26    39.14    27.44    48.64    65.88    79.23    94.51     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham         7   13   +1       1.11    61.65    -2.33    62.72     8.53    11.59     2.31     6.88    14.00    24.55    55.81     0.11R    0.00  
Everton           7   12   +1       1.35    64.83    -0.54    60.89     8.51    10.29     1.37     4.50    10.16    18.64    46.77     0.22R    0.00  
Hull              7   11   -1       4.13    89.50     3.11    40.20     7.90   -19.62     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.10     0.75    29.12R    5.29  
Man_Utd           7   10   +1      -2.94    19.64    -4.57    71.81     8.40    31.40    15.97    34.26    52.17    67.99    89.33     0.01R    0.00  
Aston_Villa       7   10   +1       2.58    78.26     4.54    48.87     8.48    -4.79     0.04     0.17     0.51     1.39     7.18     5.67R    0.65  
Newcastle         7   10   -3       1.46    66.94    -1.03    46.19     8.48   -13.88     0.02     0.09     0.30     0.78     4.00    10.81R    1.40  
West_Brom         7    9   +1       0.14    52.44     2.26    50.39     8.53    -0.94     0.06     0.31     0.89     2.18     9.88     4.09R    0.35  
West_Ham          7    8   +2      -1.32    36.71     2.29    46.18     8.25    -4.59     0.01     0.06     0.19     0.62     3.71     9.28R    1.04  
Cardiff           7    8   -2       0.60    58.92     1.15    40.67     8.43   -17.43     0.00     0.02     0.06     0.19     1.10    27.85R    5.58  
Swansea           7    7   -3      -0.70    43.66    -0.29    46.37     8.40    -7.72     0.02     0.07     0.25     0.68     3.85     9.87R    1.15  
Stoke             7    7   -3      -0.78    41.95    -0.63    42.97     8.02   -11.00     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.19     1.49    17.26R    2.32  
Fulham            7    7   -4      -1.74    31.96    -2.65    44.61     8.34   -11.49     0.01     0.05     0.15     0.46     2.76    13.63R    1.93  
Norwich           7    7   -4      -0.77    42.59    -1.41    40.81     8.16   -18.04     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.12     0.85    26.89R    5.13  
Crystal_Palace    7    3   -8      -2.20    24.65    -0.52    27.25     7.70   -38.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    85.87R   57.91  
Sunderland        7    1  -11      -6.20     1.93    -7.36    34.46     8.01   -25.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.10    56.79R   17.11  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 6 October 2013, Wigan 2 1 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Burnley         11   26  +14       7.68    95.50     9.07    81.96     9.45    26.30    17.18    33.06    76.75    43.33P    0.01R    0.00  
QPR             10   26  +10       7.87    97.20     3.67    85.06     9.73    24.27    27.43    45.23    84.03    55.92P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester       11   23   +6       4.53    83.32     0.85    80.11     9.36    19.96    12.32    25.67    70.23    37.06P    0.01R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   11   22   +8       5.58    88.75     5.95    75.42     9.41    16.35     5.35    12.69    51.59    21.13P    0.04R    0.00  
Watford         11   21  +11       2.35    68.94     5.28    81.20     9.54    30.40    15.90    31.39    75.17    43.44P    0.01R    0.00  
Blackpool       11   20   +4       3.21    74.96     1.36    72.10     9.36    10.31     2.55     6.77    37.23    13.55P    0.13R    0.01  
Reading         11   19   +5       0.70    55.35     0.21    77.84     9.82    21.85     9.41    20.27    61.94    31.95P    0.04R    0.00  
Bournemouth     11   16   -6       3.80    79.64    -0.73    51.74     9.40   -27.86     0.02     0.05     1.00     0.17P   20.95R    3.61  
Blackburn       11   15   +4      -0.86    43.11     2.80    67.45     9.38    10.95     0.79     2.74    21.66     7.05P    0.68R    0.03  
Derby           11   15   +3      -0.43    46.95     2.54    64.48     9.52     5.03     0.42     1.43    13.80     3.91P    1.51R    0.11  
Ipswich         11   15   +3       0.61    56.16     4.11    61.42     9.47     0.59     0.19     0.72     8.37     2.18P    3.00R    0.26  
Wigan            9   14   +4      -1.58    35.20    -0.94    75.91    10.39    21.53     7.50    16.40    54.36    27.71P    0.12R    0.01  
Huddersfield    11   14   +3      -0.26    48.59     4.12    57.11     9.17    -4.24     0.04     0.18     3.17     0.75P    6.85R    0.72  
Leeds_United    11   14   -3       0.48    55.30    -0.73    59.68     9.36    -6.44     0.10     0.42     5.51     1.37P    4.51R    0.46  
Brighton        11   13   -1      -3.25    24.08    -2.89    66.03     9.34     6.80     0.52     1.85    17.01     5.71P    0.92R    0.07  
Middlesbrough   11   12   -1      -2.82    27.11    -0.58    56.98     9.51    -6.01     0.06     0.24     3.50     0.83P    7.98R    0.83  
Doncaster       10   12   -2       0.93    60.13     1.92    53.08     9.56   -14.04     0.03     0.09     1.50     0.34P   16.57R    2.81  
Millwall        11   11  -11      -2.06    33.55    -7.98    48.93     8.98   -26.62     0.00     0.02     0.34     0.05P   29.40R    5.44  
Birmingham      11   10   -2      -5.36    11.95    -2.40    60.11     9.60     1.26     0.12     0.47     6.65     1.93P    4.30R    0.48  
Bolton          11    8   -9      -6.22     8.22    -7.76    57.93     9.59    -6.19     0.05     0.23     4.05     1.11P    7.15R    0.84  
Charlton        10    7   -6      -6.10     7.83    -5.04    53.73     9.54    -9.52     0.02     0.08     1.74     0.45P   14.04R    2.22  
Sheff_Wed       10    6   -6      -6.18     6.62    -3.80    46.94     9.44   -18.77     0.00     0.01     0.35     0.06P   36.83R    8.61  
Yeovil          11    5  -12      -3.88    18.10    -2.07    35.91     8.83   -40.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.92R   49.57  
Barnsley        11    5  -16      -4.69    13.08    -6.96    41.23     9.05   -35.70     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   63.05R   23.91  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 5 October 2013, Brentford 0 1 Rotherham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient   10   26  +18       8.25    97.51    11.83    82.53    10.00    28.68     6.69    21.70    81.39    35.82P    0.01R    0.00  
Peterborough    10   25  +14       5.36    88.97     4.34    95.43     9.98    48.78    42.62    74.52    98.06    82.45P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   10   25  +14       5.37    89.23     4.88    96.01     9.90    48.33    45.16    76.31    98.27    84.13P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford        10   21  +13       7.22    94.23    12.93    65.65    10.16     5.11     0.20     1.23    21.67     4.55P    2.55R    0.14  
Preston         10   19   +7       5.08    87.33     6.78    75.62     9.94    17.87     1.50     6.69    58.27    18.47P    0.14R    0.01  
Rotherham       10   19   +5       6.82    93.03     7.59    62.95    10.26    -4.69     0.09     0.65    14.58     2.81P    5.17R    0.45  
MK_Dons         10   16   +5      -0.55    44.71     0.66    76.57     9.79    21.99     1.84     8.21    62.39    23.84P    0.11R    0.00  
Crawley_Town    10   16   +3       2.64    72.81     4.01    64.63     9.92     1.34     0.09     0.71    18.37     3.81P    3.11R    0.22  
Walsall         10   15   +1       0.97    59.25     0.61    65.12     9.71     1.86     0.12     0.74    18.41     4.23P    2.62R    0.22  
Brentford       10   15   -1      -0.23    48.20    -3.25    66.72     9.76     2.36     0.21     1.16    23.45     6.04P    1.84R    0.11  
Swindon         10   14   +3      -2.44    28.93    -1.14    75.74     9.89    21.55     1.34     6.91    59.65    22.94P    0.18R    0.01  
Port_Vale       10   14   -2       2.18    69.43     1.19    56.65    10.14   -13.84     0.03     0.15     5.16     0.90P   15.52R    2.17  
Carlisle        10   12   -9       0.91    59.37    -4.61    49.69     9.45   -30.09     0.00     0.01     0.85     0.13P   37.27R    7.84  
Colchester      10   11   -4      -0.44    47.55    -0.42    52.84     9.42   -15.84     0.00     0.02     1.79     0.26P   24.09R    3.73  
Shrewsbury      10    9   -3      -2.35    30.56     0.58    54.13     9.58    -9.59     0.00     0.03     2.41     0.49P   19.92R    3.01  
Gillingham      10    9   -4      -1.98    33.72     0.57    51.04    10.05   -15.90     0.00     0.02     1.70     0.29P   31.72R    6.44  
Oldham          10    8   -3      -3.97    18.07    -0.12    49.19     9.44   -15.76     0.00     0.01     0.75     0.14P   37.10R    7.54  
Coventry        10    7   +5       0.38    52.93     0.51    61.81    10.10    13.02     0.07     0.52    13.23     3.82P    5.49R    0.61  
Notts_County    10    7   -6      -6.80     5.80    -6.00    55.63     9.94    -7.81     0.00     0.05     4.00     0.93P   16.48R    2.23  
Bristol_City    10    6   -6      -7.45     4.50    -5.20    59.60    10.63     0.02     0.03     0.27     9.96     2.58P   10.12R    1.48  
Crewe           10    6  -17      -3.10    22.97    -8.83    40.45     9.12   -43.11     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P   74.43R   35.23  
Sheff_Utd       10    5  -10      -9.08     1.54   -10.58    57.09     9.75    -5.98     0.01     0.08     4.87     1.24P   12.71R    1.69  
Stevenage       10    5  -11      -5.90     7.47    -6.67    44.99     9.34   -25.80     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.05P   55.52R   16.57  
Tranmere        10    5  -12      -7.22     4.08    -9.68    47.72     9.48   -22.49     0.00     0.00     0.50     0.08P   43.89R   10.31  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 5 October 2013, AFC_Wimbledon 0 2 Northampton; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield         10   22   +9       5.31    88.73     4.55    83.58     9.66    26.99    35.57    67.02    90.09    73.74P    0.00R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       10   21   +8       6.44    92.50     6.79    72.84     9.82    11.65     7.01    24.36    56.96    31.46P    0.16R    0.04  
Exeter               10   20   +4       4.14    82.40     0.81    72.33     9.91     8.41     6.62    23.04    54.11    30.33P    0.28R    0.07  
Oxford_Utd           10   18   +7       3.71    79.48     6.15    73.99     9.90    16.95     8.73    29.23    62.15    37.43P    0.15R    0.03  
Mansfield            10   18   +4       5.57    89.11     6.00    64.70    10.26    -0.20     1.48     7.83    26.78    11.69P    2.24R    0.68  
Morecambe            10   18   +3       4.29    83.25     3.09    68.58     9.88     4.68     3.22    13.42    39.58    19.11P    0.69R    0.18  
Scunthorpe           10   17   +5      -0.49    45.22    -0.59    76.22    10.31    19.59    14.10    38.24    69.64    48.16P    0.14R    0.04  
Rochdale             10   17   +2       2.67    72.46     1.19    70.51     9.93     8.20     4.44    18.05    47.59    24.98P    0.43R    0.09  
Newport_County       10   16   +4       4.74    85.75     7.96    54.61     9.91   -13.01     0.16     1.05     5.76     1.87P   13.96R    5.37  
Dag_&_Red            10   16   +1       2.62    72.71     1.51    62.12     9.70    -3.87     0.63     4.04    17.85     6.78P    3.13R    0.94  
AFC_Wimbledon        10   16   +1       4.34    84.00     4.16    58.87     9.60    -9.29     0.30     1.99    10.64     3.39P    6.03R    2.04  
Burton_Albion        10   15   -1       2.21    69.24     0.59    63.54     9.90    -3.04     1.07     5.59    22.04     8.97P    2.52R    0.73  
Wycombe              10   14   +2      -0.03    50.27     1.50    63.79     9.77     2.58     1.16     5.93    23.32     9.95P    2.27R    0.62  
Southend             10   14   +1      -0.68    44.24    -0.50    70.09     9.84    11.01     4.07    17.10    46.80    25.34P    0.46R    0.13  
Portsmouth           10   12   -1      -5.05    14.09    -6.08    73.37    10.49    17.65     8.92    28.77    59.98    39.03P    0.37R    0.09  
York                 10   11   -1      -1.09    41.12     1.29    53.57     9.42   -10.86     0.07     0.53     3.96     1.21P   14.94R    5.92  
Plymouth             10   10   -6      -1.81    34.47    -3.49    53.01     9.24   -14.28     0.06     0.37     3.00     0.86P   16.54R    6.09  
Bury                 10    9   +0      -6.10     8.69    -2.09    63.70    10.43     7.95     1.51     7.17    25.28    12.45P    2.85R    0.85  
Hartlepool           10    9   -4      -5.57    10.92    -5.35    60.24    10.14    -0.98     0.56     3.45    15.15     6.73P    5.16R    1.64  
Bristol_Rovers       10    9   -5      -3.36    22.75    -3.00    53.09     9.73   -13.47     0.06     0.56     3.95     1.27P   17.28R    6.97  
Torquay              10    9   -7      -3.97    18.81    -5.87    53.74     9.58   -13.99     0.09     0.55     4.04     1.35P   15.36R    6.16  
Cheltenham           10    9   -9      -3.65    20.75    -7.31    56.00     9.78   -12.67     0.11     1.06     6.74     2.32P   11.06R    3.97  
Northampton          10    8   -5      -5.25    11.68    -4.38    53.78     9.67   -10.35     0.07     0.63     4.50     1.54P   14.93R    5.86  
Accrington_Stanley   10    2  -12      -8.39     1.17    -6.94    39.81     9.23   -29.65     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P   69.06R   51.50  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 8 October 2013, Aldershot 3 3 Luton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd    14   34  +17      11.38    98.84    11.76    86.68     8.66    30.56    43.96    90.60    54.79P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    14   26   +7       0.87    56.14    -2.33    79.73     8.58    22.29    15.47    70.26    31.02P    0.00R    0.00  
Nuneaton         14   25   +3       7.48    92.55     5.56    67.47     8.61     0.96     0.94    17.92     3.45P    0.77R    0.01  
Luton            14   24  +10       0.97    57.12     4.02    79.84     8.60    28.57    15.94    72.01    31.72P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   14   24   +6       4.64    81.01     5.69    67.68     8.56     5.46     1.11    18.95     4.15P    0.69R    0.02  
Grimsby          14   24   +6       0.29    52.10    -0.77    77.25     8.58    20.48     9.25    60.45    23.32P    0.02R    0.00  
Salisbury        14   24   +4       5.87    86.72     5.66    63.70     9.13    -2.23     0.62    10.56     2.20P    2.77R    0.05  
Welling          14   22   +5       4.38    78.80     7.62    65.85     9.34     4.40     0.95    16.21     3.61P    1.85R    0.04  
Lincoln_City     14   22   +5       2.38    68.17     4.27    66.05     8.65     5.57     0.74    15.02     3.43P    1.08R    0.01  
Alfreton_Town    14   22   +1       3.95    77.36     3.15    62.60     8.71    -5.20     0.28     7.62     1.31P    3.19R    0.07  
Barnet           14   21   +6      -3.96    22.36    -3.07    75.71     8.87    23.01     8.34    54.05    22.38P    0.06R    0.00  
Halifax          14   21   +0       4.30    79.24     4.81    60.03     9.41    -9.08     0.19     5.78     1.02P    7.53R    0.35  
Gateshead        14   19   -2       0.64    55.52    -0.67    60.70     8.56    -5.30     0.14     4.94     0.94P    4.59R    0.12  
Forest_Green     14   18   +3      -3.12    27.71    -0.17    65.75     8.71     9.00     0.64    14.59     3.80P    1.27R    0.02  
Southport        14   17   -5       0.15    52.01    -1.27    54.93     8.35   -15.01     0.02     1.02     0.18P   15.27R    0.62  
Hereford         14   16   -2      -4.54    19.79    -4.08    63.15     8.59     3.25     0.28     8.64     2.17P    2.50R    0.04  
Tamworth         14   16   -6       0.82    57.87    -0.04    52.78     8.35   -16.74     0.01     0.53     0.07P   21.91R    1.24  
Macclesfield     14   15   -3      -4.13    21.20    -2.99    57.45     8.55    -4.95     0.05     2.44     0.55P    9.11R    0.42  
Wrexham          14   15   -4      -7.92     6.43    -9.87    65.16     8.67     5.65     0.50    12.88     3.99P    1.59R    0.05  
Dartford         14   14  -10      -2.63    30.85    -6.00    51.33     8.41   -20.14     0.00     0.36     0.05P   28.37R    1.90  
Woking           14   13   -7      -3.71    24.34    -2.66    49.03     8.32   -20.66     0.01     0.18     0.03P   37.85R    3.01  
Chester          14   12  -10      -1.39    40.79    -0.80    44.48     8.60   -27.53     0.00     0.06     0.01P   60.47R    9.27  
Aldershot        14    9   +2      -4.28    21.01    -4.14    65.47     8.83    21.25     0.57    14.93     5.81P    1.64R    0.03  
Hyde_United      14    2  -26     -10.20     0.65   -13.70    29.91     7.84   -53.61     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.46R   82.73  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10