Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 7 October 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 6 October 2013, Norwich 1 3 Chelsea; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal           7   16   +6       2.50    75.07     0.13    73.44     8.52    29.68    22.11    41.50    58.65    73.26    91.87     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool         7   16   +6       3.01    80.05     0.91    69.04     8.51    21.58     9.59    22.11    36.90    52.94    81.63     0.01R    0.00  
Chelsea           7   14   +6       1.10    62.20     1.01    73.18     8.39    31.27    20.84    40.27    57.82    73.06    92.01     0.00     0.00  
Southampton       7   14   +5       3.94    86.74     4.30    51.81     8.36    -2.22     0.14     0.44     1.31     3.01    12.18     2.55R    0.14  
Man_City          7   13   +9      -1.38    33.25     1.58    74.63     8.26    39.07    27.28    48.61    66.05    79.16    94.21     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham         7   13   +1       1.14    62.12    -2.31    62.79     8.59    11.71     2.41     7.03    14.26    25.06    55.77     0.10R    0.00  
Everton           7   12   +1       1.36    64.69    -0.55    60.93     8.56    10.37     1.43     4.72    10.19    18.62    47.20     0.20R    0.01  
Hull              7   11   -1       4.15    89.46     3.16    40.01     7.95   -19.87     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.11     0.69    29.96R    5.65  
Man_Utd           7   10   +1      -2.94    19.65    -4.57    71.84     8.38    31.50    16.06    34.53    52.26    68.02    89.42     0.00R    0.00  
Aston_Villa       7   10   +1       2.54    77.64     4.51    48.91     8.49    -4.80     0.04     0.19     0.56     1.46     7.15     5.65R    0.64  
Newcastle         7   10   -3       1.48    66.91    -1.00    46.17     8.47   -13.97     0.01     0.06     0.24     0.71     3.90    10.92R    1.50  
West_Brom         7    9   +1       0.10    52.15     2.22    50.65     8.48    -0.55     0.06     0.30     0.90     2.33    10.16     3.74R    0.38  
West_Ham          7    8   +2      -1.34    36.34     2.26    46.20     8.35    -4.52     0.02     0.09     0.27     0.72     3.93     9.60R    1.21  
Cardiff           7    8   -2       0.63    59.13     1.20    40.63     8.40   -17.46     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.16     1.00    28.15R    5.46  
Swansea           7    7   -3      -0.72    43.40    -0.29    46.42     8.31    -7.70     0.01     0.06     0.21     0.62     3.77     9.59R    0.99  
Stoke             7    7   -3      -0.80    42.00    -0.64    42.97     7.94   -11.05     0.01     0.02     0.07     0.17     1.47    16.84R    2.04  
Fulham            7    7   -4      -1.77    31.76    -2.69    44.64     8.33   -11.44     0.00     0.04     0.16     0.47     2.65    13.65R    1.85  
Norwich           7    7   -4      -0.77    42.64    -1.38    40.74     8.13   -18.12     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.12     0.84    26.96R    5.05  
Crystal_Palace    7    3   -8      -2.14    25.16    -0.43    27.09     7.71   -38.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    86.17R   58.64  
Sunderland        7    1  -11      -6.24     1.92    -7.43    34.64     8.06   -24.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.13    55.90R   16.44  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 6 October 2013, Wigan 2 1 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Burnley         11   26  +14       7.67    95.38     9.02    82.13     9.48    26.51    17.92    34.06    77.59    44.35P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             10   26  +10       7.92    97.34     3.75    84.92     9.74    24.12    27.01    44.68    83.80    55.26P    0.00R    0.00  
Leicester       11   23   +6       4.54    83.22     0.89    79.90     9.35    19.69    11.57    24.78    69.59    36.24P    0.01R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   11   22   +8       5.63    88.93     6.02    75.27     9.47    16.17     5.33    12.66    50.97    21.15P    0.04R    0.00  
Watford         11   21  +11       2.32    68.74     5.24    81.39     9.60    30.72    16.62    32.19    75.72    44.02P    0.02R    0.00  
Blackpool       11   20   +4       3.24    75.30     1.43    71.97     9.47    10.11     2.56     7.01    37.13    13.74P    0.16R    0.01  
Reading         11   19   +5       0.81    56.58     0.37    77.63     9.71    21.47     8.66    19.15    61.10    30.81P    0.02R    0.00  
Bournemouth     11   16   -6       3.86    80.20    -0.63    51.61     9.48   -28.06     0.01     0.04     1.06     0.19P   21.54R    3.73  
Blackburn       11   15   +4      -0.82    43.16     2.91    67.32     9.40    10.72     0.82     2.73    21.22     6.92P    0.66R    0.06  
Derby           11   15   +3      -0.45    46.60     2.49    64.50     9.55     5.20     0.41     1.52    14.27     4.20P    1.59R    0.09  
Ipswich         11   15   +3       0.59    55.99     4.06    61.43     9.54     0.54     0.25     0.78     8.46     2.27P    2.96R    0.26  
Wigan            9   14   +4      -1.58    35.28    -0.96    76.06    10.51    21.75     7.91    16.94    55.00    28.14P    0.15R    0.01  
Huddersfield    11   14   +3      -0.27    48.48     4.06    57.10     9.17    -4.20     0.04     0.16     3.23     0.73P    6.88R    0.73  
Leeds_United    11   14   -3       0.44    54.66    -0.81    59.68     9.41    -6.47     0.07     0.32     5.43     1.31P    4.77R    0.49  
Brighton        11   13   -1      -3.25    24.28    -2.88    66.00     9.31     6.72     0.54     1.82    16.92     5.71P    0.91R    0.06  
Middlesbrough   11   12   -1      -2.92    26.64    -0.72    57.31     9.57    -5.43     0.06     0.25     3.95     1.02P    7.57R    0.91  
Doncaster       10   12   -2       0.84    59.12     1.78    53.43     9.68   -13.46     0.01     0.09     1.70     0.32P   15.97R    2.62  
Millwall        11   11  -11      -2.07    33.42    -7.97    48.91     8.96   -26.65     0.00     0.01     0.37     0.07P   29.43R    5.49  
Birmingham      11   10   -2      -5.41    11.87    -2.46    60.12     9.60     1.26     0.12     0.49     6.60     1.98P    4.28R    0.40  
Bolton          11    8   -9      -6.23     8.23    -7.80    57.86     9.61    -6.29     0.06     0.25     4.07     1.17P    7.31R    0.84  
Charlton        10    7   -6      -6.10     7.61    -5.06    53.63     9.41    -9.68     0.02     0.06     1.49     0.36P   14.12R    2.11  
Sheff_Wed       10    6   -6      -6.16     6.52    -3.77    47.09     9.35   -18.56     0.00     0.01     0.29     0.06P   35.87R    8.10  
Yeovil          11    5  -12      -3.83    18.34    -1.98    35.64     8.71   -40.62     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    82.83R   50.99  
Barnsley        11    5  -16      -4.68    13.04    -6.97    41.32     8.97   -35.54     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   62.90R   23.09  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 5 October 2013, Brentford 0 1 Rotherham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient   10   26  +18       8.29    97.56    11.90    82.40     9.82    28.45     6.48    21.19    81.37    35.45P    0.01R    0.00  
Peterborough    10   25  +14       5.42    89.08     4.45    95.26    10.07    48.58    42.16    74.08    97.96    81.91P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   10   25  +14       5.38    89.39     4.90    96.00     9.84    48.26    45.48    76.60    98.39    84.31P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford        10   21  +13       7.21    94.23    12.92    65.61    10.12     5.00     0.24     1.28    21.43     4.75P    2.53R    0.18  
Preston         10   19   +7       5.03    87.15     6.70    75.86     9.92    18.27     1.47     6.98    59.22    18.77P    0.17R    0.01  
Rotherham       10   19   +5       6.86    93.21     7.65    62.76    10.21    -4.97     0.12     0.67    14.11     2.75P    5.29R    0.47  
MK_Dons         10   16   +5      -0.62    44.07     0.53    76.79     9.90    22.30     2.01     8.73    63.53    24.60P    0.14R    0.00  
Crawley_Town    10   16   +3       2.71    73.03     4.09    64.52     9.98     1.17     0.12     0.72    18.07     3.79P    3.26R    0.25  
Walsall         10   15   +1       0.95    59.09     0.58    65.13     9.79     1.89     0.09     0.67    18.84     4.42P    2.79R    0.17  
Brentford       10   15   -1      -0.18    48.69    -3.20    66.82     9.74     2.52     0.24     1.22    23.25     5.97P    1.80R    0.11  
Swindon         10   14   +3      -2.39    28.97    -1.08    75.60     9.84    21.43     1.45     6.76    58.91    22.50P    0.20R    0.02  
Port_Vale       10   14   -2       2.22    69.71     1.28    56.43    10.12   -14.21     0.02     0.11     5.15     0.91P   15.78R    2.29  
Carlisle        10   12   -9       0.81    58.82    -4.78    49.97     9.47   -29.59     0.00     0.02     1.07     0.15P   36.43R    7.40  
Colchester      10   11   -4      -0.44    47.42    -0.44    52.85     9.44   -15.85     0.00     0.01     1.80     0.29P   24.41R    3.88  
Shrewsbury      10    9   -3      -2.34    30.49     0.58    54.05     9.50    -9.64     0.00     0.03     2.34     0.40P   20.06R    3.06  
Gillingham      10    9   -4      -2.06    32.92     0.42    51.24     9.98   -15.54     0.01     0.03     1.64     0.30P   31.07R    6.14  
Oldham          10    8   -3      -4.04    17.56    -0.22    49.31     9.50   -15.57     0.00     0.00     0.85     0.17P   36.60R    7.33  
Coventry        10    7   +5       0.41    53.30     0.57    61.74    10.09    12.89     0.06     0.48    12.98     3.70P    5.66R    0.53  
Notts_County    10    7   -6      -6.78     5.88    -5.96    55.68     9.94    -7.80     0.01     0.08     4.01     0.93P   16.28R    2.19  
Bristol_City    10    6   -6      -7.40     4.51    -5.10    59.33    10.65    -0.40     0.04     0.27     9.54     2.51P   10.72R    1.62  
Crewe           10    6  -17      -3.09    23.19    -8.79    40.34     9.22   -43.29     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.00P   74.94R   35.91  
Sheff_Utd       10    5  -10      -9.12     1.52   -10.63    57.09     9.73    -5.97     0.01     0.07     4.76     1.31P   13.01R    1.71  
Stevenage       10    5  -11      -5.93     7.38    -6.70    45.13     9.35   -25.50     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.02P   55.25R   16.31  
Tranmere        10    5  -12      -7.22     4.14    -9.68    47.75     9.50   -22.42     0.00     0.01     0.48     0.08P   43.60R   10.42  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 5 October 2013, AFC_Wimbledon 0 2 Northampton; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield         10   22   +9       5.27    88.51     4.52    83.67     9.69    27.14    36.03    67.45    90.15    74.14P    0.00R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       10   21   +8       6.44    92.39     6.77    72.85     9.90    11.69     7.23    24.66    57.08    31.63P    0.20R    0.04  
Exeter               10   20   +4       4.17    82.44     0.88    72.20     9.87     8.20     6.20    22.44    54.07    29.84P    0.23R    0.06  
Oxford_Utd           10   18   +7       3.60    78.58     6.00    74.16     9.87    17.17     8.89    29.58    63.18    37.93P    0.17R    0.03  
Mansfield            10   18   +4       5.62    89.48     6.06    64.39    10.21    -0.65     1.34     7.23    25.88    10.85P    2.44R    0.67  
Morecambe            10   18   +3       4.27    83.10     3.07    68.53     9.90     4.58     3.00    13.23    39.47    18.73P    0.73R    0.20  
Scunthorpe           10   17   +5      -0.54    44.54    -0.70    76.46    10.22    20.03    14.30    39.05    70.56    48.77P    0.11R    0.02  
Rochdale             10   17   +2       2.67    72.58     1.18    70.61    10.02     8.31     4.67    18.40    48.07    25.44P    0.48R    0.13  
Newport_County       10   16   +4       4.71    85.82     7.86    54.56     9.72   -13.00     0.13     0.94     5.47     1.73P   13.77R    4.96  
Dag_&_Red            10   16   +1       2.66    72.72     1.60    62.00     9.59    -4.08     0.64     3.88    17.31     6.68P    3.07R    0.87  
AFC_Wimbledon        10   16   +1       4.32    84.01     4.15    59.03     9.55    -8.96     0.27     2.08    10.80     3.50P    6.00R    2.02  
Burton_Albion        10   15   -1       2.11    68.40     0.49    63.94     9.94    -2.28     1.11     6.01    23.75     9.72P    2.43R    0.70  
Wycombe              10   14   +2      -0.08    49.77     1.43    63.99     9.83     2.89     1.21     6.36    23.83    10.48P    2.20R    0.68  
Southend             10   14   +1      -0.64    44.71    -0.46    70.02     9.74    10.84     3.91    16.55    46.26    24.93P    0.42R    0.10  
Portsmouth           10   12   -1      -4.94    14.58    -5.91    73.28    10.50    17.45     8.86    28.44    59.51    38.81P    0.36R    0.10  
York                 10   11   -1      -1.16    40.75     1.19    53.65     9.35   -10.72     0.06     0.54     3.93     1.20P   14.54R    5.63  
Plymouth             10   10   -6      -1.85    34.28    -3.54    53.22     9.36   -14.03     0.04     0.41     3.40     1.04P   16.20R    6.10  
Bury                 10    9   +0      -5.97     9.32    -1.90    63.49    10.39     7.60     1.32     6.99    24.68    12.26P    2.83R    0.90  
Hartlepool           10    9   -4      -5.41    11.40    -5.11    59.61    10.16    -1.85     0.48     3.00    13.66     5.97P    5.96R    2.09  
Bristol_Rovers       10    9   -5      -3.37    22.69    -2.98    52.84     9.74   -13.86     0.07     0.53     3.74     1.25P   18.09R    7.51  
Torquay              10    9   -7      -3.91    19.18    -5.77    53.58     9.59   -14.30     0.06     0.58     4.06     1.31P   15.56R    6.27  
Cheltenham           10    9   -9      -3.70    20.05    -7.36    56.08     9.74   -12.55     0.09     0.99     6.70     2.32P   10.91R    4.09  
Northampton          10    8   -5      -5.27    11.38    -4.43    53.87     9.64   -10.18     0.09     0.66     4.37     1.47P   14.74R    5.81  
Accrington_Stanley   10    2  -12      -8.44     1.23    -7.02    39.94     9.12   -29.43     0.00     0.01     0.07     0.02P   68.56R   51.03  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 5 October 2013, Aldershot 0 3 Grimsby; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd    13   31  +16       9.70    97.87    10.71    84.12     8.81    28.24    33.88    83.25    45.15P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          13   24   +7       1.66    62.96     0.14    79.70     8.68    23.29    16.72    68.48    31.85P    0.00R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   13   24   +7       6.15    88.84     6.86    70.47     8.84     8.80     2.79    27.78     7.12P    0.27R    0.01  
Nuneaton         13   24   +3       7.67    93.82     5.28    67.46     8.72     0.42     1.15    16.94     3.55P    0.74R    0.02  
Luton            13   23  +10       1.29    60.12     4.09    79.08     8.72    26.81    15.41    66.46    29.77P    0.01R    0.00  
Kidderminster    13   23   +4       0.28    51.82    -3.75    77.34     8.80    18.13    11.31    57.50    24.36P    0.03R    0.00  
Salisbury        13   23   +4       6.09    88.42     5.48    63.78     9.45    -2.83     0.81    10.56     2.38P    2.87R    0.10  
Alfreton_Town    13   22   +2       5.51    85.74     4.45    65.99     8.97    -0.93     0.89    13.91     2.80P    1.40R    0.03  
Lincoln_City     13   21   +5       3.23    74.76     4.98    67.40     8.81     6.95     1.22    17.68     4.45P    0.78R    0.01  
Barnet           13   20   +6      -3.30    25.63    -2.85    76.38     9.21    23.74    11.01    54.78    24.60P    0.08R    0.00  
Halifax          13   20   +0       4.67    82.24     4.66    60.98     9.72    -8.17     0.37     7.10     1.36P    6.11R    0.35  
Welling          13   19   +4       2.88    71.16     6.78    62.82     9.54     1.16     0.63     9.65     2.22P    3.59R    0.15  
Forest_Green     13   18   +6      -2.69    29.75     1.39    67.90     8.83    13.16     1.55    20.11     5.86P    0.69R    0.01  
Southport        13   17   -4       0.85    57.56    -1.30    55.88     8.60   -15.01     0.03     1.50     0.26P   11.97R    0.65  
Hereford         13   16   -1      -3.54    24.34    -3.62    64.97     8.76     5.01     0.61    11.75     3.29P    1.42R    0.05  
Gateshead        13   16   -4      -0.62    45.65    -2.09    58.41     8.75    -8.40     0.09     2.87     0.58P    6.98R    0.36  
Tamworth         13   15   -6       0.78    57.74    -0.50    52.28     8.48   -18.22     0.01     0.49     0.06P   22.26R    1.78  
Dartford         13   13  -10      -2.30    32.61    -6.03    52.37     8.62   -19.24     0.01     0.53     0.12P   22.08R    1.85  
Macclesfield     13   12   -4      -5.44    13.50    -3.48    55.46     8.78    -6.60     0.03     1.47     0.33P   12.38R    0.81  
Wrexham          13   12   -5      -8.99     3.27   -10.07    64.53     8.77     6.22     0.59    10.91     3.53P    1.62R    0.05  
Woking           13   12   -7      -3.64    23.87    -2.98    49.09     8.72   -21.55     0.00     0.26     0.04P   35.59R    3.79  
Chester          13    9  -11      -3.16    26.27    -1.80    40.89     8.75   -32.18     0.00     0.03     0.00P   73.04R   19.95  
Aldershot        13    8   +2      -3.75    22.84    -3.91    66.13     8.94    21.48     0.89    15.99     6.32P    1.20R    0.06  
Hyde_United      13    2  -24      -9.33     0.89   -12.45    32.06     8.09   -50.30     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.89R   69.98  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10