Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 6 October 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 6 October 2013, Norwich 1 3 Chelsea; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal           7   16   +6       2.54    75.06     0.19    73.46     8.52    29.66    22.08    41.71    58.72    73.37    91.76     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool         7   16   +6       2.97    79.65     0.87    69.12     8.58    21.73     9.94    22.57    37.41    53.59    81.89     0.01R    0.00  
Chelsea           7   14   +6       1.13    62.29     1.05    73.26     8.40    31.39    20.76    40.35    58.09    73.46    92.25     0.00R    0.00  
Southampton       7   14   +5       3.92    86.88     4.27    51.76     8.34    -2.23     0.12     0.43     1.21     2.89    12.09     2.54R    0.17  
Man_City          7   13   +9      -1.42    32.55     1.54    74.70     8.27    39.26    27.66    49.30    66.35    79.44    94.33     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham         7   13   +1       1.16    62.54    -2.26    62.62     8.54    11.47     2.23     6.53    13.86    24.30    55.35     0.10R    0.00  
Everton           7   12   +1       1.38    64.86    -0.51    60.86     8.52    10.28     1.39     4.45    10.08    18.48    46.50     0.16R    0.01  
Hull              7   11   -1       4.12    89.40     3.11    40.21     7.87   -19.60     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.08     0.73    28.79R    5.20  
Man_Utd           7   10   +1      -2.93    19.60    -4.55    71.75     8.35    31.30    15.65    33.86    51.70    67.69    89.60     0.00R    0.00  
Aston_Villa       7   10   +1       2.54    77.90     4.52    48.92     8.53    -4.72     0.04     0.15     0.59     1.47     7.52     5.90R    0.61  
Newcastle         7   10   -3       1.50    67.23    -0.99    46.17     8.47   -13.94     0.02     0.08     0.27     0.76     4.00    11.03R    1.37  
West_Brom         7    9   +1       0.12    51.94     2.23    50.43     8.56    -0.85     0.06     0.30     0.89     2.23    10.12     4.10R    0.39  
West_Ham          7    8   +2      -1.33    36.64     2.29    46.27     8.30    -4.48     0.02     0.09     0.26     0.64     3.88     9.42R    1.08  
Cardiff           7    8   -2       0.58    58.54     1.11    40.88     8.43   -17.14     0.01     0.02     0.09     0.23     1.17    27.06R    5.34  
Swansea           7    7   -3      -0.70    43.66    -0.27    46.26     8.32    -7.87     0.01     0.07     0.20     0.59     3.70     9.78R    1.03  
Stoke             7    7   -3      -0.80    41.71    -0.63    43.00     8.00   -11.00     0.00     0.02     0.06     0.22     1.54    17.11R    2.23  
Fulham            7    7   -4      -1.80    31.40    -2.73    44.71     8.34   -11.33     0.01     0.05     0.16     0.42     2.64    13.39R    1.83  
Norwich           7    7   -4      -0.73    42.96    -1.34    40.67     8.18   -18.38     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.12     0.82    27.53R    5.29  
Crystal_Palace    7    3   -8      -2.19    24.71    -0.56    27.26     7.68   -38.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    85.94R   58.00  
Sunderland        7    1  -11      -6.16     2.03    -7.32    34.40     8.05   -25.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.11    57.14R   17.45  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 6 October 2013, Wigan 2 1 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Burnley         11   26  +14       7.69    95.56     9.08    82.07     9.44    26.43    17.58    34.08    77.23    44.32P    0.00R    0.00  
QPR             10   26  +10       7.94    97.30     3.76    84.82     9.71    23.95    26.42    44.26    83.34    55.17P    0.00R    0.00  
Leicester       11   23   +6       4.56    83.70     0.93    79.90     9.41    19.68    12.24    25.06    69.35    36.52P    0.01R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   11   22   +8       5.53    88.63     5.86    75.75     9.43    16.87     5.75    13.54    53.21    22.06P    0.05R    0.00  
Watford         11   21  +11       2.42    69.55     5.38    81.17     9.56    30.30    16.15    31.47    75.08    43.41P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackpool       11   20   +4       3.21    74.83     1.36    71.95     9.39    10.15     2.53     6.80    36.89    13.39P    0.15R    0.01  
Reading         11   19   +5       0.82    56.49     0.36    77.66     9.79    21.50     9.06    19.58    61.48    31.43P    0.05R    0.00  
Bournemouth     11   16   -6       3.95    80.32    -0.42    51.29     9.47   -28.71     0.02     0.05     1.02     0.19P   22.57R    4.31  
Blackburn       11   15   +4      -0.89    42.86     2.78    67.50     9.51    10.97     0.91     2.90    22.19     7.33P    0.75R    0.06  
Derby           11   15   +3      -0.41    47.06     2.56    64.49     9.50     5.12     0.47     1.47    13.94     4.08P    1.55R    0.11  
Ipswich         11   15   +3       0.58    55.70     4.07    61.39     9.48     0.58     0.21     0.70     8.37     2.13P    3.06R    0.26  
Wigan            9   14   +4      -1.58    35.13    -0.95    75.78    10.40    21.37     7.65    16.40    54.01    27.25P    0.15R    0.00  
Huddersfield    11   14   +3      -0.28    48.49     4.07    57.10     9.15    -4.15     0.04     0.21     3.30     0.73P    6.80R    0.78  
Leeds_United    11   14   -3       0.48    55.14    -0.75    59.65     9.24    -6.50     0.07     0.34     5.12     1.23P    4.44R    0.43  
Brighton        11   13   -1      -3.28    23.74    -2.91    65.99     9.34     6.71     0.58     1.93    17.08     5.81P    0.90R    0.06  
Middlesbrough   11   12   -1      -2.90    26.58    -0.73    57.31     9.55    -5.56     0.07     0.24     3.84     0.90P    7.63R    0.91  
Doncaster       10   12   -2       0.87    59.41     1.82    53.21     9.49   -13.67     0.02     0.08     1.47     0.30P   16.15R    2.51  
Millwall        11   11  -11      -2.11    33.22    -8.03    49.02     8.93   -26.48     0.00     0.02     0.37     0.08P   28.84R    5.43  
Birmingham      11   10   -2      -5.38    11.93    -2.47    60.14     9.59     1.39     0.16     0.54     6.93     2.12P    4.25R    0.44  
Bolton          11    8   -9      -6.24     8.20    -7.82    58.00     9.55    -6.11     0.05     0.27     3.86     1.11P    6.99R    0.80  
Charlton        10    7   -6      -6.16     7.47    -5.12    53.83     9.46    -9.36     0.01     0.05     1.59     0.40P   14.05R    2.20  
Sheff_Wed       10    6   -6      -6.14     6.66    -3.76    47.08     9.30   -18.63     0.00     0.01     0.31     0.06P   36.09R    8.15  
Yeovil          11    5  -12      -3.91    17.89    -2.10    35.99     8.80   -40.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.89R   49.28  
Barnsley        11    5  -16      -4.69    13.09    -6.96    41.17     8.95   -35.78     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   63.63R   24.26  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 5 October 2013, Brentford 0 1 Rotherham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient   10   26  +18       8.33    97.54    11.94    82.22    10.03    28.14     6.34    20.78    80.53    34.82P    0.01R    0.00  
Peterborough    10   25  +14       5.42    89.22     4.45    95.29    10.18    48.60    41.69    74.05    97.83    81.76P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   10   25  +14       5.30    88.87     4.75    96.24     9.82    48.72    46.35    77.23    98.57    84.85P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford        10   21  +13       7.08    93.91    12.70    66.05    10.23     5.70     0.27     1.34    22.79     4.91P    2.40R    0.16  
Preston         10   19   +7       5.02    86.96     6.69    75.93     9.94    18.34     1.53     7.08    59.58    19.26P    0.19R    0.00  
Rotherham       10   19   +5       6.80    93.14     7.58    62.88    10.28    -4.71     0.08     0.67    14.55     2.78P    5.44R    0.47  
MK_Dons         10   16   +5      -0.63    44.10     0.57    76.72     9.90    22.18     1.93     8.57    62.97    24.14P    0.14R    0.00  
Crawley_Town    10   16   +3       2.78    73.86     4.19    64.46     9.90     1.03     0.10     0.69    17.69     3.72P    3.16R    0.23  
Walsall         10   15   +1       1.03    59.43     0.69    65.00     9.82     1.66     0.10     0.76    18.73     4.26P    2.84R    0.19  
Brentford       10   15   -1      -0.16    48.95    -3.16    66.75     9.76     2.41     0.17     1.13    23.29     6.17P    1.76R    0.13  
Swindon         10   14   +3      -2.34    29.40    -0.99    75.58     9.75    21.34     1.26     6.48    58.98    22.39P    0.16R    0.00  
Port_Vale       10   14   -2       2.25    69.81     1.31    56.43    10.11   -14.17     0.02     0.12     4.89     0.85P   15.85R    2.24  
Carlisle        10   12   -9       0.87    59.19    -4.70    49.83     9.43   -29.83     0.00     0.01     0.85     0.13P   36.66R    7.64  
Colchester      10   11   -4      -0.34    48.45    -0.27    52.53     9.39   -16.33     0.00     0.01     1.57     0.28P   25.36R    4.07  
Shrewsbury      10    9   -3      -2.43    29.88     0.47    54.33     9.63    -9.31     0.01     0.04     2.61     0.52P   19.69R    2.89  
Gillingham      10    9   -4      -2.06    33.00     0.44    51.27    10.00   -15.48     0.01     0.03     1.70     0.31P   30.77R    5.97  
Oldham          10    8   -3      -4.04    17.67    -0.22    49.29     9.44   -15.58     0.00     0.01     0.76     0.12P   36.65R    7.41  
Coventry        10    7   +5       0.36    52.65     0.50    61.65    10.17    12.78     0.09     0.54    13.13     3.81P    5.98R    0.57  
Notts_County    10    7   -6      -6.77     5.80    -5.94    55.58     9.84    -7.97     0.01     0.05     3.80     0.91P   16.49R    2.18  
Bristol_City    10    6   -6      -7.38     4.64    -5.09    59.28    10.72    -0.49     0.03     0.31     9.77     2.69P   10.90R    1.59  
Crewe           10    6  -17      -3.07    23.40    -8.75    40.32     9.25   -43.31     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P   74.95R   36.31  
Sheff_Utd       10    5  -10      -9.11     1.54   -10.58    56.91     9.74    -6.24     0.01     0.10     4.52     1.16P   13.17R    1.73  
Stevenage       10    5  -11      -5.90     7.47    -6.69    45.10     9.38   -25.59     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.03P   55.09R   16.47  
Tranmere        10    5  -12      -7.34     3.81    -9.87    48.09     9.52   -21.90     0.00     0.00     0.59     0.12P   42.32R    9.74  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 5 October 2013, AFC_Wimbledon 0 2 Northampton; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield         10   22   +9       5.30    88.77     4.55    83.58     9.63    26.96    35.93    66.96    89.89    73.65P    0.00R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       10   21   +8       6.45    92.55     6.80    72.61     9.87    11.34     6.81    24.21    55.97    31.13P    0.18R    0.04  
Exeter               10   20   +4       4.14    82.38     0.82    72.31     9.87     8.41     6.41    22.96    54.45    30.35P    0.24R    0.07  
Oxford_Utd           10   18   +7       3.65    79.20     6.06    74.05     9.92    17.00     8.88    29.56    62.48    37.74P    0.14R    0.03  
Mansfield            10   18   +4       5.66    89.44     6.15    64.24    10.31    -0.93     1.47     7.14    25.42    10.68P    2.51R    0.77  
Morecambe            10   18   +3       4.34    83.70     3.15    68.43     9.88     4.47     2.92    13.03    39.08    18.47P    0.68R    0.16  
Scunthorpe           10   17   +5      -0.48    45.16    -0.57    76.23    10.18    19.65    13.96    38.27    69.66    48.12P    0.11R    0.04  
Rochdale             10   17   +2       2.67    72.60     1.22    70.58     9.99     8.32     4.66    18.57    48.10    25.57P    0.42R    0.09  
Newport_County       10   16   +4       4.64    85.45     7.78    54.77     9.78   -12.58     0.14     1.00     5.70     1.78P   13.52R    4.74  
Dag_&_Red            10   16   +1       2.67    72.83     1.58    62.06     9.68    -3.99     0.68     4.02    17.83     6.86P    3.07R    0.89  
AFC_Wimbledon        10   16   +1       4.34    84.01     4.17    58.94     9.63    -9.14     0.27     2.09    10.98     3.53P    6.42R    2.11  
Burton_Albion        10   15   -1       2.17    68.80     0.54    63.61     9.96    -2.89     1.17     5.83    22.73     9.39P    2.64R    0.78  
Wycombe              10   14   +2      -0.08    49.92     1.42    64.01     9.77     2.91     1.20     6.16    24.03    10.35P    2.03R    0.60  
Southend             10   14   +1      -0.71    44.09    -0.54    70.22     9.76    11.14     4.01    17.38    47.16    25.64P    0.47R    0.11  
Portsmouth           10   12   -1      -5.04    14.26    -6.07    73.52    10.45    17.88     9.27    29.02    60.34    39.56P    0.28R    0.06  
York                 10   11   -1      -1.15    40.84     1.20    53.77     9.43   -10.48     0.07     0.53     4.13     1.19P   14.56R    5.52  
Plymouth             10   10   -6      -1.81    34.24    -3.52    53.07     9.26   -14.22     0.03     0.42     3.17     0.96P   16.39R    6.20  
Bury                 10    9   +0      -6.01     9.06    -1.94    63.56    10.46     7.69     1.34     6.98    25.26    12.25P    3.04R    0.96  
Hartlepool           10    9   -4      -5.44    11.34    -5.16    59.80    10.01    -1.59     0.46     2.97    13.86     6.15P    5.44R    1.79  
Bristol_Rovers       10    9   -5      -3.39    22.54    -3.02    52.93     9.75   -13.69     0.06     0.52     3.84     1.21P   17.81R    7.47  
Torquay              10    9   -7      -3.93    18.87    -5.79    53.73     9.68   -14.13     0.07     0.66     4.41     1.49P   15.58R    6.28  
Cheltenham           10    9   -9      -3.69    20.43    -7.35    56.07     9.81   -12.52     0.14     1.10     6.97     2.37P   11.06R    3.97  
Northampton          10    8   -5      -5.27    11.47    -4.45    53.92     9.60   -10.12     0.05     0.61     4.46     1.56P   14.66R    5.88  
Accrington_Stanley   10    2  -12      -8.42     1.16    -7.00    39.87     9.23   -29.49     0.00     0.01     0.09     0.02P   68.75R   51.46  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 5 October 2013, Aldershot 0 3 Grimsby; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd    13   31  +16       9.73    97.89    10.72    84.17     8.73    28.35    33.71    83.47    45.35P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          13   24   +7       1.72    63.15     0.18    79.67     8.72    23.19    16.83    68.25    31.43P    0.01R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   13   24   +7       6.25    89.38     7.01    70.39     8.86     8.64     2.76    27.28     7.04P    0.30R    0.00  
Nuneaton         13   24   +3       7.69    93.82     5.34    67.40     8.70     0.38     1.12    16.67     3.49P    0.67R    0.01  
Luton            13   23  +10       1.30    59.96     4.08    79.20     8.72    27.01    15.55    67.30    30.15P    0.01R    0.00  
Kidderminster    13   23   +4       0.25    51.43    -3.79    77.23     8.78    17.95    10.70    57.20    23.68P    0.02R    0.00  
Salisbury        13   23   +4       6.00    88.18     5.38    63.84     9.35    -2.70     0.72    10.44     2.28P    2.71R    0.08  
Alfreton_Town    13   22   +2       5.54    86.17     4.51    65.92     8.95    -1.05     0.89    13.47     2.73P    1.32R    0.05  
Lincoln_City     13   21   +5       3.11    74.03     4.77    67.74     8.89     7.48     1.48    18.93     4.73P    0.62R    0.01  
Barnet           13   20   +6      -3.38    25.08    -2.95    76.58     9.21    24.01    11.57    55.31    25.44P    0.07R    0.00  
Halifax          13   20   +0       4.76    82.83     4.83    60.85     9.67    -8.48     0.35     6.77     1.38P    6.04R    0.35  
Welling          13   19   +4       2.86    71.13     6.71    62.87     9.60     1.30     0.63     9.64     2.30P    3.70R    0.14  
Forest_Green     13   18   +6      -2.73    29.43     1.31    67.99     8.89    13.35     1.59    20.28     6.02P    0.63R    0.01  
Southport        13   17   -4       0.79    56.98    -1.41    55.96     8.66   -14.91     0.04     1.54     0.28P   12.04R    0.57  
Hereford         13   16   -1      -3.50    24.75    -3.56    64.71     8.75     4.67     0.59    11.01     3.00P    1.63R    0.03  
Gateshead        13   16   -4      -0.63    46.00    -2.09    58.40     8.71    -8.47     0.07     2.86     0.56P    7.01R    0.33  
Tamworth         13   15   -6       0.81    58.00    -0.43    52.20     8.48   -18.32     0.01     0.49     0.06P   22.09R    1.77  
Dartford         13   13  -10      -2.19    33.38    -5.88    52.17     8.63   -19.55     0.01     0.52     0.09P   23.03R    1.87  
Macclesfield     13   12   -4      -5.63    12.44    -3.77    55.75     8.78    -6.16     0.03     1.58     0.34P   11.79R    0.77  
Wrexham          13   12   -5      -8.97     3.33   -10.05    64.56     8.78     6.29     0.53    10.94     3.49P    1.74R    0.05  
Woking           13   12   -7      -3.65    23.70    -2.99    49.10     8.67   -21.60     0.00     0.27     0.05P   35.53R    3.54  
Chester          13    9  -11      -3.10    26.77    -1.70    40.80     8.81   -32.42     0.00     0.02     0.00P   72.84R   20.63  
Aldershot        13    8   +2      -3.69    23.36    -3.78    66.04     9.00    21.37     0.82    15.78     6.10P    1.32R    0.06  
Hyde_United      13    2  -24      -9.36     0.87   -12.45    32.03     8.04   -50.35     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.87R   69.71  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10