Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 5 October 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 5 October 2013, Cardiff 1 2 Newcastle; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool         7   16   +6       2.94    79.39     0.81    69.10     8.51    21.73     9.40    21.56    35.91    51.45    80.75     0.01R    0.00  
Arsenal           6   15   +6       3.29    83.53     0.72    74.70     8.75    31.23    26.60    46.37    62.37    75.32    92.66     0.00     0.00  
Man_City          7   13   +9      -1.41    32.65     1.54    74.44     8.25    38.84    25.53    46.58    63.55    76.86    93.70     0.00R    0.00  
Tottenham         6   13   +4       2.71    79.71     0.95    66.65     8.77    18.45     5.92    14.71    25.99    39.93    71.33     0.01R    0.00  
Everton           7   12   +1       1.30    64.16    -0.60    60.84     8.52    10.23     1.42     4.52     9.66    17.40    44.07     0.16R    0.01  
Chelsea           6   11   +4       0.32    54.05     0.26    71.56     8.52    29.05    15.27    31.67    48.60    64.24    88.11     0.01R    0.00  
Southampton       6   11   +3       2.60    79.30     2.70    49.35     8.47    -5.43     0.05     0.19     0.62     1.54     7.26     4.80R    0.44  
Hull              7   11   -1       4.07    89.16     3.08    39.90     7.92   -20.27     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.07     0.63    29.51R    5.79  
Man_Utd           7   10   +1      -2.93    19.64    -4.56    71.91     8.29    31.62    15.66    33.66    50.99    67.08    88.99     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa       7   10   +1       2.63    78.65     4.65    48.73     8.48    -5.08     0.02     0.12     0.43     1.19     6.40     5.66R    0.68  
Newcastle         7   10   -3       1.43    66.53    -1.06    46.16     8.38   -13.93     0.01     0.06     0.22     0.60     3.43    10.41R    1.45  
West_Brom         6    8   +1       0.13    52.93     1.68    50.41     8.68    -1.53     0.07     0.32     0.93     2.18     9.42     4.23R    0.49  
Cardiff           7    8   -2       0.58    58.68     1.10    40.61     8.33   -17.62     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.13     0.83    26.97R    5.60  
Swansea           6    7   -1       0.40    56.85     1.36    48.57     8.54    -4.51     0.02     0.14     0.41     1.15     6.09     6.04R    0.57  
Norwich           6    7   -2      -0.11    50.08    -0.48    42.03     8.36   -16.07     0.01     0.02     0.07     0.19     1.23    21.74R    3.92  
Stoke             7    7   -3      -0.78    42.23    -0.58    42.93     7.92   -11.05     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.14     1.21    16.51R    2.19  
Fulham            7    7   -4      -1.81    31.07    -2.75    44.72     8.29   -11.35     0.01     0.03     0.09     0.35     2.43    12.87R    1.82  
West_Ham          6    5   -1      -3.10    17.66    -0.95    41.96     8.37   -11.49     0.01     0.02     0.05     0.17     1.32    20.88R    3.76  
Crystal_Palace    7    3   -8      -2.19    24.74    -0.52    27.65     7.72   -37.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    84.22R   55.84  
Sunderland        7    1  -11      -6.19     2.03    -7.34    34.43     8.00   -25.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11    55.98R   17.44  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 5 October 2013, Birmingham 1 2 Bolton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Burnley         11   26  +14       7.73    95.59     9.13    81.83     9.40    26.06    16.91    32.74    76.90    43.17P    0.00R    0.00  
QPR             10   26  +10       7.92    97.25     3.71    84.83     9.75    23.94    26.69    44.45    83.47    55.23P    0.00R    0.00  
Leicester       11   23   +6       4.52    83.49     0.84    80.09     9.34    19.93    12.56    26.11    70.26    37.45P    0.01R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   11   22   +8       5.56    88.52     5.89    75.55     9.58    16.58     5.82    13.71    52.28    21.94P    0.08R    0.00  
Watford         11   21  +11       2.38    69.27     5.29    81.33     9.57    30.65    16.68    32.16    75.43    44.34P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackpool       11   20   +4       3.18    74.95     1.33    72.19     9.34    10.48     2.74     7.19    37.80    14.05P    0.10R    0.00  
Reading         11   19   +5       0.77    56.00     0.27    77.72     9.77    21.54     9.18    19.83    61.74    31.62P    0.04R    0.00  
Bournemouth     11   16   -6       3.80    79.63    -0.77    51.82     9.53   -27.55     0.02     0.07     1.17     0.23P   21.25R    3.66  
Blackburn       10   15   +5       0.07    50.79     3.15    68.63     9.65    11.62     1.40     3.97    26.00     8.95P    0.55R    0.03  
Derby           11   15   +3      -0.44    46.86     2.52    64.44     9.59     4.99     0.50     1.56    14.01     4.21P    1.63R    0.12  
Ipswich         11   15   +3       0.60    56.10     4.11    61.30     9.45     0.38     0.17     0.68     8.16     2.14P    3.09R    0.21  
Huddersfield    11   14   +3      -0.24    48.67     4.12    57.12     9.18    -4.16     0.05     0.16     3.29     0.74P    6.79R    0.79  
Leeds_United    11   14   -3       0.48    55.14    -0.70    59.66     9.35    -6.47     0.10     0.37     5.66     1.33P    4.59R    0.41  
Brighton        11   13   -1      -3.31    23.68    -2.93    65.99     9.30     6.76     0.55     1.83    17.13     5.72P    0.89R    0.07  
Middlesbrough   11   12   -1      -2.81    27.36    -0.60    57.06     9.49    -5.88     0.04     0.22     3.44     0.77P    7.85R    0.85  
Doncaster       10   12   -2       0.83    58.85     1.77    53.49     9.71   -13.33     0.03     0.09     1.76     0.35P   15.97R    2.59  
Wigan            8   11   +3      -2.72    24.63    -1.19    74.37    10.68    20.64     6.42    14.13    48.88    24.34P    0.26R    0.02  
Millwall        11   11  -11      -2.11    33.30    -8.04    48.97     9.01   -26.57     0.00     0.01     0.39     0.06P   29.50R    5.44  
Birmingham      11   10   -2      -5.28    12.20    -2.28    59.75     9.52     0.74     0.10     0.39     6.21     1.78P    4.46R    0.46  
Bolton          11    8   -9      -6.21     8.19    -7.76    58.01     9.53    -6.11     0.05     0.26     4.04     1.10P    7.00R    0.84  
Charlton        10    7   -6      -6.08     7.56    -5.02    53.70     9.41    -9.52     0.00     0.06     1.64     0.39P   13.98R    2.11  
Sheff_Wed       10    6   -6      -6.21     6.51    -3.84    47.00     9.30   -18.68     0.00     0.01     0.31     0.06P   36.53R    8.36  
Yeovil          11    5  -12      -3.87    18.18    -2.03    35.79     8.88   -40.47     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   82.07R   50.28  
Barnsley        11    5  -16      -4.70    12.96    -6.99    41.27     8.96   -35.57     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   63.36R   23.76  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 5 October 2013, Brentford 0 1 Rotherham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient   10   26  +18       8.28    97.52    11.90    82.32     9.93    28.33     6.19    21.05    80.84    35.15P    0.01R    0.00  
Peterborough    10   25  +14       5.37    88.88     4.36    95.42     9.96    48.68    42.05    74.58    98.03    82.41P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   10   25  +14       5.31    88.98     4.78    96.24     9.84    48.71    46.09    77.20    98.52    84.88P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford        10   21  +13       7.17    94.05    12.83    65.90    10.16     5.47     0.21     1.25    22.50     4.66P    2.45R    0.17  
Preston         10   19   +7       5.02    86.85     6.71    75.84     9.90    18.19     1.56     6.92    58.96    18.66P    0.17R    0.00  
Rotherham       10   19   +5       6.80    93.01     7.58    63.04    10.37    -4.52     0.16     0.80    14.94     2.87P    5.30R    0.45  
MK_Dons         10   16   +5      -0.59    44.24     0.59    76.64     9.88    22.05     1.86     7.87    63.09    23.68P    0.16R    0.00  
Crawley_Town    10   16   +3       2.75    73.46     4.16    64.35     9.90     0.89     0.09     0.64    17.60     3.53P    3.33R    0.23  
Walsall         10   15   +1       1.00    59.22     0.65    64.95     9.78     1.63     0.11     0.73    18.34     4.35P    2.72R    0.17  
Brentford       10   15   -1      -0.19    48.60    -3.22    66.75     9.70     2.41     0.19     1.12    23.19     6.02P    1.80R    0.10  
Swindon         10   14   +3      -2.42    28.73    -1.16    75.76     9.81    21.61     1.37     6.76    59.72    22.91P    0.17R    0.00  
Port_Vale       10   14   -2       2.17    69.05     1.20    56.63    10.21   -13.85     0.02     0.13     5.47     1.08P   15.55R    2.10  
Carlisle        10   12   -9       0.88    59.34    -4.69    49.89     9.48   -29.76     0.00     0.02     0.87     0.13P   36.48R    7.86  
Colchester      10   11   -4      -0.35    48.27    -0.32    52.63     9.44   -16.16     0.00     0.02     1.81     0.33P   24.94R    4.06  
Shrewsbury      10    9   -3      -2.43    29.89     0.45    54.25     9.47    -9.35     0.00     0.04     2.37     0.45P   19.34R    2.83  
Gillingham      10    9   -4      -2.11    32.36     0.37    51.41     9.96   -15.27     0.00     0.03     1.75     0.32P   30.14R    5.88  
Oldham          10    8   -3      -4.03    18.00    -0.23    49.43     9.50   -15.37     0.00     0.01     0.96     0.16P   36.40R    7.32  
Coventry        10    7   +5       0.48    53.93     0.67    61.47    10.06    12.43     0.06     0.43    12.51     3.66P    5.98R    0.62  
Notts_County    10    7   -6      -6.75     5.80    -5.89    55.38     9.90    -8.19     0.01     0.06     3.86     0.91P   17.14R    2.40  
Bristol_City    10    6   -6      -7.30     4.92    -4.95    59.01    10.73    -0.94     0.03     0.28     9.20     2.46P   11.37R    1.76  
Crewe           10    6  -17      -3.12    22.79    -8.85    40.48     9.16   -43.02     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   74.66R   35.27  
Sheff_Utd       10    5  -10      -9.09     1.48   -10.58    57.04     9.75    -6.08     0.01     0.07     4.63     1.21P   13.11R    1.77  
Stevenage       10    5  -11      -5.93     7.34    -6.68    45.08     9.38   -25.51     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.03P   55.05R   16.68  
Tranmere        10    5  -12      -7.26     3.98    -9.69    47.82     9.55   -22.39     0.00     0.00     0.57     0.13P   43.72R   10.31  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 5 October 2013, AFC_Wimbledon 0 2 Northampton; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield         10   22   +9       5.26    88.59     4.52    83.73     9.64    27.19    36.21    67.33    90.41    74.16P    0.00R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       10   21   +8       6.42    92.50     6.72    72.92     9.78    11.78     7.06    24.70    57.19    31.67P    0.15R    0.03  
Exeter               10   20   +4       4.11    82.28     0.76    72.35     9.89     8.45     6.42    23.01    54.68    30.48P    0.20R    0.05  
Oxford_Utd           10   18   +7       3.65    79.08     6.09    74.22     9.87    17.22     8.90    29.96    63.26    38.26P    0.13R    0.03  
Mansfield            10   18   +4       5.68    89.65     6.14    64.33    10.35    -0.77     1.57     7.56    25.75    11.19P    2.40R    0.74  
Morecambe            10   18   +3       4.31    83.27     3.12    68.43     9.87     4.50     2.93    13.03    38.99    18.47P    0.64R    0.18  
Scunthorpe           10   17   +5      -0.55    44.65    -0.69    76.27    10.20    19.72    13.94    38.00    69.79    47.97P    0.09R    0.02  
Rochdale             10   17   +2       2.72    72.64     1.28    70.41     9.99     8.02     4.50    18.03    47.28    25.03P    0.49R    0.13  
Newport_County       10   16   +4       4.74    85.99     7.92    54.59     9.77   -13.01     0.13     0.91     5.50     1.59P   13.76R    5.13  
Dag_&_Red            10   16   +1       2.70    73.39     1.64    61.82     9.64    -4.33     0.68     3.89    16.79     6.42P    3.26R    0.88  
AFC_Wimbledon        10   16   +1       4.36    83.99     4.18    59.15     9.63    -8.83     0.28     2.09    11.30     3.70P    5.99R    1.96  
Burton_Albion        10   15   -1       2.23    69.20     0.62    63.51     9.90    -2.98     0.99     5.48    22.25     8.88P    2.59R    0.68  
Wycombe              10   14   +2      -0.10    49.42     1.37    64.02     9.72     2.93     1.22     6.17    23.80    10.19P    1.97R    0.56  
Southend             10   14   +1      -0.67    44.51    -0.50    70.13     9.79    11.02     3.98    17.00    46.88    25.29P    0.40R    0.12  
Portsmouth           10   12   -1      -5.00    14.21    -6.02    73.49    10.37    17.82     8.90    28.83    60.16    39.28P    0.30R    0.07  
York                 10   11   -1      -1.13    41.12     1.22    53.64     9.40   -10.73     0.06     0.52     3.97     1.15P   14.85R    5.73  
Plymouth             10   10   -6      -1.84    34.22    -3.52    53.15     9.31   -14.14     0.03     0.43     3.21     0.97P   16.22R    6.11  
Bury                 10    9   +0      -6.09     8.99    -2.07    63.65    10.49     7.87     1.32     7.09    25.37    12.51P    3.01R    0.88  
Hartlepool           10    9   -4      -5.50    11.04    -5.24    59.98    10.10    -1.34     0.52     3.18    14.27     6.24P    5.29R    1.73  
Bristol_Rovers       10    9   -5      -3.35    22.84    -2.96    52.78     9.75   -13.93     0.08     0.55     3.76     1.24P   18.21R    7.45  
Torquay              10    9   -7      -3.96    18.66    -5.82    53.69     9.69   -14.14     0.07     0.59     4.18     1.44P   15.67R    6.39  
Cheltenham           10    9   -9      -3.63    20.68    -7.31    56.10     9.78   -12.53     0.12     1.03     6.94     2.44P   10.76R    3.91  
Northampton          10    8   -5      -5.26    11.43    -4.39    53.73     9.61   -10.42     0.07     0.61     4.15     1.40P   15.14R    6.16  
Accrington_Stanley   10    2  -12      -8.45     1.13    -7.06    39.94     9.27   -29.38     0.00     0.01     0.11     0.03P   68.47R   51.05  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 5 October 2013, Aldershot 0 3 Grimsby; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd    13   31  +16       9.72    97.79    10.71    84.08     8.84    28.21    33.35    82.91    44.61P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          13   24   +7       1.65    62.67     0.05    79.82     8.72    23.41    17.02    68.71    31.76P    0.00R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   13   24   +7       6.21    88.93     6.96    70.37     8.86     8.66     2.62    27.04     6.79P    0.31R    0.00  
Nuneaton         13   24   +3       7.67    93.81     5.28    67.48     8.72     0.41     1.13    16.72     3.49P    0.68R    0.02  
Luton            13   23  +10       1.17    59.15     3.87    79.41     8.63    27.28    15.78    67.95    30.82P    0.01R    0.00  
Kidderminster    13   23   +4       0.17    50.86    -3.90    77.56     8.78    18.41    11.48    58.56    24.68P    0.03R    0.00  
Salisbury        13   23   +4       6.08    88.63     5.48    63.69     9.32    -2.91     0.73    10.08     2.26P    2.68R    0.07  
Alfreton_Town    13   22   +2       5.54    86.02     4.47    66.05     8.94    -0.82     0.89    13.83     2.73P    1.22R    0.02  
Lincoln_City     13   21   +5       3.26    74.89     5.04    67.30     8.84     6.83     1.15    17.51     4.23P    0.71R    0.02  
Barnet           13   20   +6      -3.39    24.65    -2.97    76.55     9.13    24.01    11.14    55.08    24.88P    0.06R    0.00  
Halifax          13   20   +0       4.84    82.94     4.95    60.68     9.77    -8.69     0.38     6.83     1.50P    6.24R    0.34  
Welling          13   19   +4       2.89    71.23     6.75    62.81     9.56     1.25     0.62     9.45     2.26P    3.62R    0.19  
Forest_Green     13   18   +6      -2.71    29.36     1.33    67.96     8.89    13.25     1.53    20.10     5.89P    0.67R    0.01  
Southport        13   17   -4       0.76    56.71    -1.41    55.92     8.59   -14.95     0.03     1.35     0.19P   11.81R    0.65  
Hereford         13   16   -1      -3.59    24.15    -3.64    64.96     8.78     5.01     0.60    11.64     3.10P    1.52R    0.05  
Gateshead        13   16   -4      -0.59    46.03    -2.03    58.47     8.77    -8.33     0.10     2.99     0.60P    6.87R    0.30  
Tamworth         13   15   -6       0.75    57.50    -0.47    52.29     8.55   -18.31     0.01     0.53     0.06P   22.13R    1.75  
Dartford         13   13  -10      -2.19    33.62    -5.86    52.13     8.63   -19.63     0.00     0.47     0.08P   23.07R    2.02  
Macclesfield     13   12   -4      -5.60    12.63    -3.70    55.70     8.72    -6.18     0.04     1.49     0.33P   11.60R    0.77  
Wrexham          13   12   -5      -8.96     3.37   -10.05    64.47     8.86     6.15     0.57    11.10     3.45P    1.77R    0.04  
Woking           13   12   -7      -3.62    24.20    -2.98    49.03     8.69   -21.68     0.00     0.22     0.03P   35.89R    3.73  
Chester          13    9  -11      -3.10    26.95    -1.73    40.84     8.81   -32.26     0.00     0.03     0.01P   72.84R   20.07  
Aldershot        13    8   +2      -3.60    23.90    -3.71    65.91     8.99    21.15     0.82    15.41     6.24P    1.38R    0.03  
Hyde_United      13    2  -24      -9.37     0.84   -12.45    32.06     8.03   -50.27     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.89R   69.92  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10