Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 4 October 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 30 September 2013, Everton 3 2 Newcastle; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal           6   15   +6       3.26    83.22     0.67    74.77     8.73    31.24    29.14    49.22    64.72    77.04    92.71     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool         6   13   +4       2.44    76.38     0.67    68.38     8.69    21.18     9.28    21.21    34.89    49.85    77.98     0.01R    0.00  
Tottenham         6   13   +4       2.71    79.44     0.99    66.76     8.74    18.55     6.59    16.27    28.15    41.97    71.92     0.03R    0.00  
Everton           6   12   +3       2.11    72.96     0.53    61.97     8.70    11.88     2.34     6.58    13.10    22.36    50.13     0.15R    0.01  
Chelsea           6   11   +4       0.32    54.02     0.24    71.48     8.61    28.89    16.55    33.52    50.04    65.21    87.56     0.00R    0.00  
Southampton       6   11   +3       2.57    78.95     2.68    49.42     8.54    -5.28     0.08     0.31     0.82     1.85     7.58     4.91R    0.52  
Man_City          6   10   +7      -2.31    22.58     0.64    72.61     8.50    36.12    20.64    39.91    56.63    70.61    90.16     0.00R    0.00  
Hull              6   10   -1       4.33    92.30     2.97    39.77     8.13   -21.21     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.09     0.71    31.33R    6.55  
Aston_Villa       6    9   +1       3.00    83.01     4.67    49.62     8.74    -4.38     0.06     0.29     0.81     1.93     8.19     5.23R    0.60  
West_Brom         6    8   +1       0.12    52.82     1.66    50.36     8.75    -1.51     0.08     0.36     1.08     2.41     9.53     4.38R    0.48  
Cardiff           6    8   -1       1.83    73.01     1.89    42.72     8.65   -15.17     0.01     0.05     0.13     0.34     1.86    20.54R    3.90  
Man_Utd           6    7   +0      -3.86    11.42    -4.43    70.93     8.53    31.70    15.18    31.95    48.52    63.57    86.58     0.01R    0.00  
Swansea           6    7   -1       0.41    56.87     1.38    48.66     8.56    -4.28     0.02     0.16     0.56     1.30     6.31     6.14R    0.73  
Norwich           6    7   -2      -0.08    50.16    -0.44    42.18     8.39   -15.72     0.00     0.01     0.07     0.21     1.38    21.47R    4.09  
Stoke             6    7   -2       0.28    55.22     0.04    44.49     8.18    -9.80     0.01     0.03     0.12     0.32     2.07    13.06R    1.73  
Newcastle         6    7   -4      -0.16    49.25    -2.05    43.77     8.56   -16.06     0.01     0.05     0.16     0.43     2.14    17.12R    3.00  
West_Ham          6    5   -1      -3.07    17.98    -0.92    41.95     8.42   -11.34     0.01     0.03     0.07     0.22     1.33    21.27R    4.14  
Fulham            6    4   -5      -3.18    16.52    -3.37    42.82     8.48   -12.73     0.00     0.03     0.10     0.27     1.69    18.87R    3.53  
Crystal_Palace    6    3   -6      -1.79    28.25    -0.33    28.11     7.92   -36.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.37R   53.90  
Sunderland        6    1  -10      -5.51     2.77    -7.50    35.06     8.24   -25.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.17    53.09R   16.82  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 1 October 2013, Barnsley 1 1 Reading; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Burnley         10   23  +13       6.44    92.97     8.67    79.99     9.68    24.70    13.76    27.39    70.54    37.49P    0.00R    0.00  
QPR              9   23   +8       7.32    96.63     3.24    83.76     9.98    22.81    24.20    40.89    80.47    51.72P    0.01R    0.00  
Leicester       10   23   +7       5.89    91.10     1.86    82.68     9.57    22.76    19.58    36.59    78.87    47.41P    0.01R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   10   19   +6       4.02    81.99     4.13    71.92     9.57    11.67     2.83     7.55    37.98    14.13P    0.19R    0.01  
Reading         10   19   +6       1.86    65.28     0.92    79.75    10.09    23.55    13.92    27.44    68.81    39.43P    0.03R    0.00  
Blackpool       10   19   +4       3.57    78.68     1.36    72.02     9.61     9.68     2.79     7.53    37.71    14.05P    0.17R    0.01  
Watford         10   18  +10       1.00    58.47     4.70    79.29     9.76    28.76    12.66    25.84    68.98    37.57P    0.01R    0.00  
Blackburn       10   15   +5      -0.04    49.84     2.96    68.25     9.66    11.07     1.33     3.92    25.13     8.60P    0.56R    0.04  
Huddersfield    10   14   +4       0.75    57.53     4.51    58.25     9.42    -3.42     0.08     0.33     4.69     1.15P    5.58R    0.73  
Ipswich         10   14   +3       1.05    60.43     4.19    62.01     9.70     0.96     0.34     1.02    10.02     2.76P    2.87R    0.28  
Leeds_United    10   14   -1       1.29    62.57     0.35    61.72     9.60    -3.36     0.26     0.79     8.86     2.27P    2.95R    0.37  
Brighton        10   13   +1      -1.92    33.34    -0.94    68.79     9.52    10.69     1.28     3.85    26.50     9.83P    0.46R    0.02  
Bournemouth     10   13   -9       2.94    75.74    -2.65    48.01     9.61   -33.67     0.00     0.02     0.59     0.10P   34.98R    9.24  
Derby           10   12   +1      -1.36    38.80     1.53    62.50     9.72     2.50     0.28     1.00    10.92     2.99P    2.66R    0.27  
Wigan            8   11   +3      -2.85    23.58    -1.39    74.12    10.76    20.11     6.24    14.12    48.50    24.38P    0.27R    0.01  
Millwall        10   11   -8      -1.21    40.16    -5.89    51.97     9.17   -20.37     0.01     0.04     0.91     0.20P   18.66R    3.28  
Birmingham      10   10   -1      -3.87    18.72    -1.24    63.05     9.77     4.64     0.35     1.22    11.96     3.71P    2.27R    0.25  
Doncaster        9    9   -3      -0.86    43.16     0.75    50.24     9.83   -16.85     0.01     0.04     0.99     0.23P   25.05R    6.00  
Middlesbrough   10    9   -4      -3.52    21.09    -2.17    54.81     9.60    -9.66     0.03     0.14     2.34     0.56P   11.72R    2.07  
Charlton         9    6   -6      -5.87     7.31    -5.21    54.21     9.70    -9.43     0.02     0.11     2.16     0.59P   13.15R    2.29  
Sheff_Wed        9    5   -6      -5.68     6.72    -3.61    47.51     9.58   -18.46     0.00     0.01     0.41     0.08P   34.04R    9.05  
Yeovil          10    5   -9      -3.45    20.29    -0.86    38.04     9.12   -35.11     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   73.78R   40.56  
Bolton          10    5  -10      -7.84     2.67    -8.76    55.06     9.78    -9.10     0.03     0.15     2.57     0.74P   11.88R    2.09  
Barnsley        10    5  -14      -4.23    15.01    -6.46    41.99     9.19   -34.42     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   58.71R   23.41  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Friday 4 October 2013, Sheff_Utd 1 1 Crawley_Town; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient    9   25  +18       8.96    98.95    12.32    83.63    10.11    29.87     9.68    26.31    82.44    39.09P    0.01R    0.00  
Peterborough     9   22  +12       4.47    85.47     3.48    93.38    10.40    46.34    39.09    66.39    95.98    75.76P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    9   22  +11       4.76    87.31     3.45    93.80    10.17    44.23    40.44    67.62    96.64    77.53P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          9   19   +9       5.71    91.11     7.58    77.52    10.13    20.57     3.15    10.62    62.95    22.08P    0.11R    0.00  
Bradford         9   18  +11       5.80    90.99    11.27    62.16    10.39     0.03     0.16     0.73    12.80     2.64P    5.84R    0.59  
MK_Dons          9   16   +6       0.91    58.16     1.80    79.44    10.14    25.29     4.38    14.61    70.24    30.76P    0.06R    0.00  
Rotherham        9   16   +4       5.09    88.14     6.54    59.95    10.51    -8.25     0.07     0.38     9.05     1.61P    9.52R    1.16  
Crawley_Town    10   16   +3       2.61    72.45     3.93    64.48     9.91     0.97     0.13     0.81    16.23     3.46P    3.17R    0.26  
Walsall          9   15   +3       2.22    70.29     2.40    68.35    10.13     6.64     0.42     1.93    27.52     7.20P    1.51R    0.11  
Brentford        9   15   +0       1.28    61.82    -2.05    69.51    10.13     5.54     0.56     2.48    31.30     8.70P    1.13R    0.07  
Port_Vale        9   13   -2       2.47    72.55     1.09    56.72    10.51   -14.58     0.04     0.23     5.33     1.08P   15.91R    2.73  
Swindon          9   11   +2      -3.44    20.55    -1.23    74.71    10.26    21.65     1.71     6.84    53.19    20.95P    0.31R    0.01  
Colchester       9   11   -1      -0.02    51.21     1.10    54.71     9.68   -12.14     0.01     0.05     2.63     0.47P   18.53R    2.92  
Carlisle         9   11   -9       0.97    60.70    -5.10    49.68     9.74   -30.69     0.00     0.01     0.96     0.16P   37.68R    8.96  
Shrewsbury       9    8   -3      -1.80    34.50     0.85    54.84     9.70    -9.04     0.00     0.05     2.70     0.47P   18.22R    2.93  
Oldham           9    7   -3      -3.78    17.91    -0.34    49.29     9.84   -16.41     0.00     0.01     0.87     0.15P   37.09R    8.73  
Gillingham       9    6   -5      -3.76    18.09    -0.72    48.13    10.28   -18.65     0.00     0.01     0.94     0.19P   42.39R   12.00  
Crewe            9    6  -13      -2.66    25.71    -6.45    43.04     9.54   -36.87     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.03P   63.97R   25.82  
Bristol_City     9    5   -6      -7.03     4.50    -5.12    60.21    11.03     0.39     0.07     0.40    10.77     2.96P    9.97R    1.66  
Stevenage        9    5  -10      -5.00    10.27    -6.34    46.51     9.67   -24.82     0.00     0.00     0.39     0.06P   48.95R   14.57  
Sheff_Utd       10    5  -10      -9.19     1.49   -10.71    56.98     9.80    -6.20     0.02     0.09     4.24     1.14P   13.08R    1.79  
Tranmere         9    5  -11      -6.49     5.36    -9.63    49.06     9.74   -21.76     0.00     0.00     0.74     0.15P   38.18R    9.21  
Coventry         9    4   +4      -0.83    42.27     0.13    60.20    10.41    12.04     0.08     0.41     9.97     2.93P    8.28R    1.15  
Notts_County     9    4  -10      -7.33     3.01    -8.26    52.56    10.13   -14.14     0.01     0.03     1.97     0.43P   26.07R    5.34  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Friday 4 October 2013, Accrington_Stanley 1 2 Dag_&_Red; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield          9   22  +10       6.82    95.56     5.78    85.65     9.75    28.86    43.12    73.93    93.25    79.89P    0.00R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd            9   18   +9       4.91    87.44     7.92    77.10     9.97    21.58    13.46    41.22    73.92    49.57P    0.05R    0.00  
Mansfield             9   18   +7       6.37    93.55     8.04    67.84    10.40     5.72     2.93    13.31    38.07    18.52P    0.99R    0.28  
Fleetwood_Town        9   18   +6       5.10    88.53     5.17    69.88    10.02     7.76     3.98    16.74    45.75    23.15P    0.47R    0.14  
Rochdale              9   17   +5       3.41    78.71     3.15    73.17    10.18    13.16     7.03    26.74    59.12    34.72P    0.25R    0.06  
Exeter                9   17   +2       3.26    78.23    -0.17    69.81     9.98     5.10     4.03    16.43    45.02    23.07P    0.45R    0.11  
AFC_Wimbledon         9   16   +3       5.40    90.31     5.67    61.95     9.90    -4.65     0.64     4.34    18.49     6.76P    3.38R    1.02  
Dag_&_Red            10   16   +1       2.60    72.53     1.47    61.90     9.61    -4.28     0.57     3.85    17.63     6.56P    2.81R    0.82  
Newport_County        9   15   +4       4.60    86.64     7.21    53.87    10.02   -15.34     0.13     0.90     5.48     1.63P   15.39R    5.86  
Morecambe             9   15   +2       2.76    74.78     2.23    65.56     9.87     1.88     1.50     8.28    29.43    12.76P    1.42R    0.35  
Wycombe               9   14   +3       1.41    63.68     2.63    66.61    10.02     5.83     1.96    10.30    33.67    15.73P    1.13R    0.28  
Scunthorpe            9   14   +3      -1.24    38.41    -1.35    74.25    10.47    17.26     9.89    31.41    62.81    41.11P    0.21R    0.05  
Burton_Albion         9   12   -2       0.47    55.20    -0.62    61.11    10.06    -5.21     0.57     3.71    16.77     6.36P    4.29R    1.38  
Southend              9   11   -1      -2.19    30.11    -2.31    66.98     9.97     6.88     2.05    10.86    35.30    17.37P    0.99R    0.25  
Plymouth              9   10   -4      -1.11    39.98    -2.50    54.93     9.37   -11.35     0.08     0.69     4.95     1.56P   11.21R    3.87  
Bristol_Rovers        9    9   -3      -2.53    27.78    -1.81    55.48     9.88    -9.76     0.14     1.06     6.64     2.23P   10.89R    4.25  
Portsmouth            9    9   -4      -5.70     9.62    -7.59    70.53    10.69    12.76     5.21    20.31    49.76    30.11P    0.66R    0.17  
Torquay               9    9   -4      -2.85    25.24    -3.24    57.44     9.84    -7.42     0.23     1.64     9.14     3.38P    7.79R    2.76  
Cheltenham            9    9   -7      -2.91    24.84    -6.28    57.73     9.89   -10.12     0.20     1.75     9.58     3.53P    7.81R    2.78  
Bury                  9    8   +0      -5.29    10.72    -1.39    65.99    10.64    11.01     2.08    10.80    33.56    17.63P    1.74R    0.52  
York                  9    8   -4      -2.56    27.25    -1.47    49.60     9.42   -17.34     0.01     0.16     1.61     0.45P   26.27R   11.83  
Hartlepool            9    6   -7      -6.48     5.57    -7.33    55.67    10.17    -8.04     0.17     1.33     7.58     3.09P   11.11R    4.15  
Northampton           9    5   -7      -6.73     4.50    -6.17    50.57     9.69   -14.83     0.03     0.26     2.37     0.78P   23.20R   10.14  
Accrington_Stanley   10    2  -12      -8.45     1.18    -7.05    39.85     9.12   -29.46     0.00     0.01     0.10     0.03P   67.49R   48.92  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 28 September 2013, Barnet 3 1 Salisbury; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd    12   28  +15       8.61    96.83    10.44    83.10     9.05    28.28    31.51    79.94    42.67P    0.00R    0.00  
Nuneaton         12   23   +3       8.26    95.98     5.59    67.96     8.90     0.77     1.52    18.82     4.07P    0.68R    0.02  
Kidderminster    12   22   +4       0.89    56.90    -3.50    78.65     9.03    19.67    15.61    63.25    28.60P    0.01R    0.00  
Grimsby          12   21   +4       0.34    52.53    -2.32    75.94     8.97    17.11     9.56    51.53    20.76P    0.06R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   12   21   +4       5.22    86.25     4.93    67.60     8.96     3.81     1.60    18.38     4.39P    0.74R    0.02  
Luton            12   20   +9       0.48    54.02     4.40    78.39     8.90    27.23    14.73    63.81    28.89P    0.01R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     12   20   +5       3.42    76.97     4.79    67.61     8.97     6.78     1.56    18.83     4.61P    0.69R    0.03  
Salisbury        12   20   +3       4.57    83.15     4.67    61.48     9.64    -4.80     0.55     7.66     1.80P    4.89R    0.26  
Halifax          12   20   +1       5.43    86.76     4.41    61.16     9.61    -8.75     0.44     6.99     1.40P    5.52R    0.39  
Barnet           12   19   +6      -2.96    26.27    -2.93    77.13     9.40    24.46    13.59    57.70    26.66P    0.07R    0.01  
Alfreton_Town    12   19   +1       4.16    80.59     3.82    63.84     9.09    -2.72     0.57     9.98     1.98P    2.41R    0.13  
Forest_Green     12   18   +7      -1.56    36.92     1.99    69.49     9.12    14.60     2.69    25.93     8.19P    0.50R    0.00  
Welling          12   18   +4       3.26    74.68     6.79    63.25     9.75     1.28     0.90    10.82     2.68P    3.44R    0.20  
Hereford         12   16   +0      -2.67    29.44    -3.34    66.06     8.93     5.62     1.13    14.68     4.24P    1.13R    0.04  
Southport        12   16   -4       1.66    64.18    -0.67    56.96     8.87   -14.06     0.07     2.18     0.38P   10.46R    0.84  
Gateshead        12   13   -6      -1.60    37.63    -3.05    56.42     8.91   -11.04     0.06     1.94     0.38P   10.93R    0.86  
Dartford         12   13   -8      -1.55    37.98    -5.00    53.77     8.82   -17.29     0.02     0.91     0.16P   18.17R    1.91  
Macclesfield     12   12   -3      -4.57    16.49    -3.21    57.58     8.99    -4.42     0.11     2.77     0.65P    8.76R    0.68  
Wrexham          12   12   -4      -7.70     4.93    -9.22    66.32     9.00     7.90     1.06    15.75     5.21P    1.13R    0.06  
Tamworth         12   12   -7      -0.64    45.93    -1.09    50.29     8.62   -19.92     0.00     0.28     0.03P   29.46R    4.08  
Woking           12   11   -7      -3.57    23.21    -3.47    48.73     8.89   -23.19     0.01     0.31     0.05P   37.30R    5.47  
Aldershot        12    8   +5      -2.69    28.51    -1.40    69.59     9.01    27.55     2.73    27.50    12.17P    0.45R    0.02  
Chester          12    8  -11      -3.09    25.65    -1.96    40.53     9.08   -33.90     0.00     0.04     0.01P   73.04R   26.74  
Hyde_United      12    2  -21      -8.70     1.13   -10.68    34.66     8.46   -44.97     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.17R   58.26  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10