Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 3 October 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 30 September 2013, Everton 3 2 Newcastle; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal           6   15   +6       3.27    83.38     0.67    74.64     8.76    31.06    28.45    48.32    63.80    76.34    92.46     0.00R    0.00  
Liverpool         6   13   +4       2.41    76.04     0.65    68.33     8.74    21.03     9.56    20.97    34.42    49.26    77.74     0.01R    0.00  
Tottenham         6   13   +4       2.71    79.50     0.97    66.81     8.75    18.68     6.71    16.33    28.28    42.01    71.80     0.04R    0.00  
Everton           6   12   +3       2.11    73.10     0.55    62.03     8.71    11.94     2.43     6.84    13.44    22.65    50.38     0.12R    0.01  
Chelsea           6   11   +4       0.31    53.83     0.22    71.52     8.64    28.92    16.63    33.84    50.54    65.47    87.60     0.00R    0.00  
Southampton       6   11   +3       2.65    79.55     2.80    49.15     8.42    -5.68     0.06     0.24     0.66     1.63     6.97     4.94R    0.48  
Man_City          6   10   +7      -2.35    22.26     0.59    72.62     8.52    36.16    20.71    40.17    56.83    70.94    90.17     0.00     0.00  
Hull              6   10   -1       4.31    91.91     2.96    39.99     8.14   -20.92     0.00     0.01     0.02     0.09     0.76    30.47R    6.28  
Aston_Villa       6    9   +1       3.04    83.46     4.74    49.51     8.72    -4.60     0.07     0.27     0.82     1.90     7.98     5.47R    0.71  
West_Brom         6    8   +1       0.13    52.84     1.68    50.40     8.75    -1.48     0.12     0.42     1.14     2.59     9.71     4.32R    0.47  
Cardiff           6    8   -1       1.82    73.14     1.88    42.84     8.70   -14.98     0.01     0.04     0.11     0.32     1.93    20.12R    3.91  
Man_Utd           6    7   +0      -3.85    11.38    -4.44    71.03     8.56    31.87    15.15    32.25    48.88    63.93    86.91     0.01R    0.00  
Swansea           6    7   -1       0.42    56.90     1.40    48.66     8.60    -4.29     0.06     0.16     0.49     1.25     6.49     6.38R    0.75  
Norwich           6    7   -2      -0.13    49.66    -0.52    42.33     8.40   -15.56     0.00     0.02     0.09     0.25     1.43    21.10R    3.95  
Stoke             6    7   -2       0.32    55.67     0.09    44.26     8.14   -10.13     0.00     0.02     0.09     0.34     1.99    13.67R    1.87  
Newcastle         6    7   -4      -0.16    49.27    -2.00    43.84     8.68   -15.98     0.01     0.05     0.19     0.46     2.39    17.14R    3.15  
West_Ham          6    5   -1      -3.11    17.82    -0.96    42.05     8.45   -11.25     0.00     0.01     0.08     0.24     1.31    21.21R    4.16  
Fulham            6    4   -5      -3.18    16.39    -3.39    42.79     8.49   -12.76     0.01     0.04     0.11     0.29     1.78    19.09R    3.50  
Crystal_Palace    6    3   -6      -1.79    28.00    -0.36    28.10     7.91   -36.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.03    82.63R   54.07  
Sunderland        6    1  -10      -5.52     2.63    -7.51    35.03     8.20   -25.16     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.17    53.28R   16.69  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 1 October 2013, Barnsley 1 1 Reading; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Burnley         10   23  +13       6.40    93.05     8.61    80.08     9.66    24.80    13.86    27.69    70.89    38.01P    0.01R    0.00  
QPR              9   23   +8       7.35    96.82     3.26    83.72    10.08    22.79    23.86    41.06    80.05    51.70P    0.00R    0.00  
Leicester       10   23   +7       5.87    91.10     1.84    82.84     9.50    23.03    20.12    37.28    79.55    48.14P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   10   19   +6       3.99    82.02     4.08    72.12     9.61    11.93     3.11     7.80    38.52    14.56P    0.14R    0.01  
Reading         10   19   +6       1.92    66.04     1.00    79.47    10.05    23.04    13.23    26.28    67.84    37.93P    0.02R    0.00  
Blackpool       10   19   +4       3.54    78.16     1.31    72.12     9.67     9.80     2.94     7.54    38.31    14.47P    0.16R    0.01  
Watford         10   18  +10       0.98    58.32     4.70    79.30     9.85    28.77    12.79    26.12    68.60    37.76P    0.04R    0.00  
Blackburn       10   15   +5      -0.10    49.43     2.88    68.47     9.66    11.35     1.39     3.88    26.14     9.10P    0.51R    0.05  
Huddersfield    10   14   +4       0.74    57.22     4.49    58.28     9.36    -3.33     0.07     0.29     4.65     1.06P    5.43R    0.67  
Ipswich         10   14   +3       1.06    60.35     4.25    61.81     9.77     0.61     0.29     0.95     9.61     2.49P    3.12R    0.35  
Leeds_United    10   14   -1       1.31    62.70     0.38    61.67     9.60    -3.39     0.24     0.83     8.86     2.38P    2.98R    0.30  
Brighton        10   13   +1      -1.97    32.96    -0.97    68.85     9.52    10.85     1.37     4.14    26.76    10.09P    0.41R    0.03  
Bournemouth     10   13   -9       2.96    76.18    -2.61    47.99     9.50   -33.77     0.00     0.02     0.53     0.09P   34.39R    9.32  
Derby           10   12   +1      -1.37    38.56     1.54    62.50     9.72     2.54     0.30     1.04    10.62     3.00P    2.67R    0.24  
Wigan            8   11   +3      -2.77    24.09    -1.31    73.87    10.70    19.76     5.96    13.42    47.68    23.31P    0.27R    0.01  
Millwall        10   11   -8      -1.21    40.12    -5.92    51.99     9.32   -20.32     0.01     0.05     0.99     0.21P   18.92R    3.44  
Birmingham      10   10   -1      -3.85    19.00    -1.20    62.92     9.77     4.48     0.36     1.17    11.83     3.60P    2.44R    0.22  
Doncaster        9    9   -3      -0.88    42.76     0.74    50.20     9.86   -16.89     0.00     0.05     1.00     0.21P   25.20R    5.94  
Middlesbrough   10    9   -4      -3.57    20.80    -2.26    54.89     9.65    -9.51     0.03     0.14     2.45     0.57P   11.97R    2.09  
Charlton         9    6   -6      -5.78     7.64    -5.10    54.04     9.66    -9.69     0.03     0.10     2.06     0.55P   13.36R    2.22  
Sheff_Wed        9    5   -6      -5.70     6.93    -3.63    47.66     9.54   -18.19     0.00     0.01     0.48     0.08P   33.36R    8.80  
Yeovil          10    5   -9      -3.44    20.25    -0.85    38.01     9.07   -35.29     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   74.09R   40.69  
Bolton          10    5  -10      -7.81     2.81    -8.75    55.21     9.75    -8.95     0.03     0.14     2.52     0.67P   11.62R    2.04  
Barnsley        10    5  -14      -4.25    15.09    -6.49    42.02     9.22   -34.42     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   58.89R   23.59  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 29 September 2013, Coventry 0 2 Brentford; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient    9   25  +18       8.98    98.98    12.33    83.60    10.26    29.76    10.00    26.36    81.67    38.84P    0.01R    0.00  
Peterborough     9   22  +12       4.45    85.55     3.44    93.64    10.31    46.80    39.92    66.94    96.23    76.46P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    9   22  +11       4.74    87.33     3.43    93.76    10.20    44.13    39.68    67.25    96.71    77.10P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          9   19   +9       5.76    91.26     7.67    77.47    10.09    20.54     2.85    10.29    62.47    21.89P    0.11R    0.00  
Bradford         9   18  +11       5.77    90.68    11.23    62.20    10.40    -0.06     0.14     0.72    12.59     2.52P    5.77R    0.55  
MK_Dons          9   16   +6       0.92    58.40     1.80    79.58    10.07    25.45     4.38    14.68    70.79    31.19P    0.07R    0.00  
Rotherham        9   16   +4       5.10    88.14     6.54    60.03    10.60    -8.05     0.08     0.39     9.20     1.69P    9.39R    1.22  
Crawley_Town     9   15   +3       2.78    74.81     3.66    64.50    10.18     0.35     0.14     0.88    16.54     3.69P    3.66R    0.33  
Walsall          9   15   +3       2.21    70.17     2.39    68.35    10.14     6.65     0.38     1.93    27.12     6.97P    1.53R    0.09  
Brentford        9   15   +0       1.26    61.58    -2.09    69.61    10.08     5.61     0.58     2.58    31.09     8.81P    1.03R    0.07  
Port_Vale        9   13   -2       2.47    72.20     1.09    56.57    10.53   -14.87     0.03     0.19     5.04     0.93P   16.43R    2.75  
Swindon          9   11   +2      -3.46    20.08    -1.26    74.91    10.09    21.98     1.62     6.62    53.75    20.80P    0.28R    0.01  
Colchester       9   11   -1       0.02    51.37     1.17    54.41     9.68   -12.60     0.00     0.04     2.42     0.41P   19.37R    2.93  
Carlisle         9   11   -9       0.99    61.16    -5.10    49.61     9.76   -30.76     0.00     0.02     0.93     0.17P   37.90R    8.86  
Shrewsbury       9    8   -3      -1.84    34.13     0.76    55.05     9.72    -8.72     0.01     0.05     2.70     0.50P   17.49R    2.82  
Oldham           9    7   -3      -3.78    17.89    -0.35    49.17     9.77   -16.55     0.01     0.02     0.84     0.16P   37.09R    8.92  
Gillingham       9    6   -5      -3.72    18.56    -0.63    47.87    10.28   -19.11     0.00     0.01     0.85     0.15P   42.99R   12.83  
Crewe            9    6  -13      -2.76    24.54    -6.65    43.27     9.53   -36.44     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P   63.25R   24.64  
Bristol_City     9    5   -6      -7.00     4.59    -5.10    60.16    11.09     0.32     0.08     0.50    10.73     2.97P   10.14R    1.69  
Stevenage        9    5  -10      -4.97    10.44    -6.29    46.53     9.72   -24.79     0.00     0.01     0.39     0.06P   48.82R   14.60  
Tranmere         9    5  -11      -6.51     5.44    -9.64    49.17     9.88   -21.61     0.00     0.01     0.83     0.14P   38.27R    9.15  
Coventry         9    4   +4      -0.79    42.97     0.19    60.09    10.46    11.81     0.08     0.38     9.73     2.76P    8.41R    1.21  
Notts_County     9    4  -10      -7.32     3.10    -8.19    52.47    10.14   -14.28     0.00     0.02     1.93     0.44P   26.03R    5.66  
Sheff_Utd        9    4  -10      -8.63     1.45   -10.42    57.79    10.05    -5.58     0.02     0.12     5.31     1.35P   11.97R    1.67  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 28 September 2013, Burton_Albion 2 2 Scunthorpe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield          9   22  +10       6.84    95.58     5.84    85.60     9.68    28.79    43.18    74.10    93.30    79.78P    0.01R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd            9   18   +9       4.87    87.28     7.85    77.33     9.90    21.95    13.90    42.22    75.08    50.70P    0.04R    0.00  
Mansfield             9   18   +7       6.37    93.34     8.05    67.89    10.43     5.77     3.03    13.45    38.80    18.55P    0.97R    0.29  
Fleetwood_Town        9   18   +6       5.13    88.81     5.22    69.66     9.93     7.38     3.65    16.14    45.09    22.39P    0.50R    0.17  
Rochdale              9   17   +5       3.39    78.65     3.14    73.16    10.13    13.08     7.09    26.49    59.04    34.51P    0.22R    0.03  
Exeter                9   17   +2       3.14    77.57    -0.31    70.14     9.86     5.55     3.99    16.99    46.38    23.91P    0.40R    0.11  
AFC_Wimbledon         9   16   +3       5.43    90.61     5.69    62.07     9.84    -4.52     0.71     4.21    18.54     6.68P    3.30R    1.05  
Newport_County        9   15   +4       4.63    86.72     7.26    53.83    10.00   -15.35     0.11     0.94     5.51     1.68P   15.85R    6.63  
Morecambe             9   15   +2       2.73    74.64     2.17    65.71     9.90     2.14     1.60     8.70    30.18    13.39P    1.42R    0.48  
Wycombe               9   14   +3       1.41    63.73     2.61    66.76    10.00     6.01     2.01    10.48    34.39    15.90P    1.13R    0.32  
Scunthorpe            9   14   +3      -1.30    37.66    -1.43    74.37    10.43    17.43     9.90    31.90    64.27    42.11P    0.21R    0.06  
Dag_&_Red             9   13   +0       1.08    60.97     0.63    59.79     9.74    -5.89     0.40     2.62    13.19     4.82P    4.98R    1.79  
Burton_Albion         9   12   -2       0.53    56.07    -0.50    60.92    10.04    -5.56     0.57     3.64    16.25     6.18P    4.66R    1.51  
Southend              9   11   -1      -2.19    29.98    -2.28    66.66     9.98     6.42     1.89    10.37    34.28    16.82P    1.19R    0.38  
Plymouth              9   10   -4      -1.10    40.20    -2.46    54.95     9.44   -11.30     0.09     0.71     5.21     1.59P   11.72R    4.54  
Bristol_Rovers        9    9   -3      -2.48    28.09    -1.76    55.09     9.92   -10.34     0.15     1.13     6.52     2.35P   12.21R    5.04  
Portsmouth            9    9   -4      -5.69     9.81    -7.53    70.44    10.67    12.68     5.00    20.27    49.82    30.15P    0.81R    0.28  
Torquay               9    9   -4      -2.86    25.18    -3.28    57.54     9.78    -7.27     0.25     1.68     9.44     3.42P    7.71R    2.86  
Cheltenham            9    9   -7      -2.91    24.65    -6.32    57.94     9.97    -9.84     0.23     1.87    10.23     3.75P    7.96R    2.90  
Bury                  9    8   +0      -5.17    11.20    -1.24    65.67    10.73    10.54     2.11    10.44    32.81    17.26P    2.14R    0.76  
York                  9    8   -4      -2.62    26.61    -1.58    49.72     9.37   -17.11     0.01     0.21     1.69     0.47P   26.46R   12.46  
Hartlepool            9    6   -7      -6.43     5.75    -7.25    55.51    10.16    -8.28     0.12     1.18     7.29     2.75P   11.97R    5.02  
Northampton           9    5   -7      -6.72     4.58    -6.16    50.61     9.74   -14.69     0.02     0.24     2.45     0.81P   23.67R   11.19  
Accrington_Stanley    9    2  -11      -7.28     1.99    -6.35    41.76     9.37   -27.59     0.00     0.02     0.24     0.05P   60.47R   42.13  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 28 September 2013, Barnet 3 1 Salisbury; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd    12   28  +15       8.60    96.81    10.45    83.08     9.02    28.22    31.21    79.62    42.18P    0.00R    0.00  
Nuneaton         12   23   +3       8.27    95.96     5.60    68.01     8.92     0.80     1.64    18.92     4.18P    0.62R    0.02  
Kidderminster    12   22   +4       0.92    57.25    -3.46    78.67     8.95    19.71    15.22    63.41    28.42P    0.02R    0.00  
Grimsby          12   21   +4       0.33    52.38    -2.36    75.94     8.92    17.12     9.60    51.41    20.48P    0.05R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   12   21   +4       5.19    86.09     4.87    67.57     9.00     3.74     1.60    18.36     4.32P    0.84R    0.04  
Luton            12   20   +9       0.35    52.83     4.22    78.66     8.91    27.66    15.58    64.70    30.18P    0.01R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     12   20   +5       3.47    77.12     4.84    67.64     9.05     6.86     1.48    19.26     4.72P    0.78R    0.02  
Salisbury        12   20   +3       4.75    84.31     4.91    61.19     9.57    -5.28     0.52     7.14     1.57P    5.03R    0.28  
Halifax          12   20   +1       5.43    86.62     4.41    60.98     9.77    -9.08     0.51     7.09     1.49P    5.82R    0.38  
Barnet           12   19   +6      -2.90    26.58    -2.87    76.97     9.44    24.17    13.52    57.02    26.68P    0.07R    0.00  
Alfreton_Town    12   19   +1       4.13    80.50     3.78    63.91     9.07    -2.65     0.55     9.95     1.95P    2.37R    0.11  
Forest_Green     12   18   +7      -1.56    37.13     2.03    69.44     9.04    14.52     2.55    25.48     7.94P    0.47R    0.02  
Welling          12   18   +4       3.25    74.45     6.80    63.21     9.80     1.25     0.81    10.82     2.63P    3.71R    0.25  
Hereford         12   16   +0      -2.69    29.19    -3.36    66.05     8.98     5.65     1.04    14.66     4.07P    1.21R    0.07  
Southport        12   16   -4       1.59    63.91    -0.73    57.16     8.90   -13.75     0.10     2.29     0.42P   10.01R    0.74  
Gateshead        12   13   -6      -1.62    37.31    -3.10    56.60     8.94   -10.75     0.06     2.08     0.38P   10.32R    0.86  
Dartford         12   13   -8      -1.55    37.91    -4.98    53.84     8.87   -17.18     0.02     0.98     0.18P   18.00R    1.91  
Macclesfield     12   12   -3      -4.54    16.54    -3.17    57.47     8.97    -4.61     0.10     2.50     0.53P    8.76R    0.69  
Wrexham          12   12   -4      -7.71     4.76    -9.23    66.35     8.97     7.93     1.06    15.60     5.06P    1.07R    0.04  
Tamworth         12   12   -7      -0.69    45.31    -1.17    50.40     8.70   -19.83     0.01     0.39     0.06P   29.12R    3.68  
Woking           12   11   -7      -3.60    23.06    -3.47    48.84     8.89   -23.01     0.01     0.23     0.03P   36.86R    5.48  
Aldershot        12    8   +5      -2.76    28.01    -1.49    69.77     9.10    27.92     2.83    28.05    12.52P    0.48R    0.01  
Chester          12    8  -11      -3.02    26.25    -1.80    40.23     8.95   -34.47     0.00     0.02     0.00    74.21R   27.37  
Hyde_United      12    2  -21      -8.68     1.20   -10.71    34.68     8.41   -44.95     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.18R   58.03  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10