Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 2 October 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 30 September 2013, Everton 3 2 Newcastle; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal           6   15   +6       3.28    83.15     0.67    74.68     8.71    31.09    28.41    48.37    64.05    76.53    92.53     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool         6   13   +4       2.46    76.49     0.70    68.20     8.68    20.91     9.08    20.51    33.94    48.72    77.32     0.02R    0.00  
Tottenham         6   13   +4       2.75    79.89     1.04    66.58     8.72    18.32     6.29    15.61    27.54    41.14    71.01     0.02R    0.00  
Everton           6   12   +3       2.00    72.00     0.41    62.42     8.72    12.56     2.51     7.29    14.26    24.00    52.20     0.12R    0.01  
Chelsea           6   11   +4       0.29    53.56     0.18    71.69     8.58    29.23    17.31    34.69    51.12    65.94    87.84     0.00R    0.00  
Southampton       6   11   +3       2.57    78.88     2.68    49.35     8.53    -5.36     0.07     0.29     0.77     1.76     7.41     5.06R    0.50  
Man_City          6   10   +7      -2.34    22.29     0.59    72.67     8.48    36.22    20.94    40.38    57.14    71.07    90.32     0.00R    0.00  
Hull              6   10   -1       4.32    92.01     2.97    39.90     8.16   -21.04     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.09     0.68    30.57R    6.52  
Aston_Villa       6    9   +1       3.03    83.52     4.72    49.53     8.70    -4.53     0.04     0.29     0.80     1.84     7.91     5.26R    0.62  
West_Brom         6    8   +1       0.19    53.27     1.73    50.32     8.65    -1.54     0.07     0.33     0.96     2.33     9.39     4.22R    0.44  
Cardiff           6    8   -1       1.87    73.75     1.95    42.69     8.72   -15.27     0.00     0.03     0.13     0.35     1.92    20.53R    4.11  
Man_Utd           6    7   +0      -3.83    11.62    -4.40    70.91     8.54    31.63    15.21    31.89    48.25    63.50    86.33     0.01R    0.00  
Swansea           6    7   -1       0.42    56.96     1.39    48.50     8.59    -4.46     0.03     0.16     0.53     1.27     6.14     6.55R    0.74  
Norwich           6    7   -2      -0.12    49.84    -0.50    42.23     8.33   -15.65     0.00     0.01     0.08     0.22     1.33    21.08R    3.89  
Stoke             6    7   -2       0.25    54.90    -0.00    44.51     8.17    -9.77     0.00     0.03     0.11     0.32     2.19    13.06R    1.77  
Newcastle         6    7   -4      -0.13    49.78    -1.98    43.69     8.68   -16.25     0.01     0.05     0.14     0.40     2.18    17.87R    3.34  
West_Ham          6    5   -1      -3.07    17.91    -0.90    41.92     8.35   -11.39     0.00     0.02     0.06     0.20     1.37    21.36R    4.09  
Fulham            6    4   -5      -3.24    15.98    -3.44    42.99     8.49   -12.51     0.01     0.02     0.10     0.31     1.75    18.21R    3.34  
Crystal_Palace    6    3   -6      -1.79    28.17    -0.35    28.10     7.84   -36.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    82.69R   53.60  
Sunderland        6    1  -10      -5.48     2.89    -7.46    35.03     8.24   -25.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.16    53.39R   17.03  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 1 October 2013, Barnsley 1 1 Reading; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Burnley         10   23  +13       6.38    93.00     8.59    80.10     9.66    24.82    13.92    27.80    70.74    38.01P    0.01R    0.00  
QPR              9   23   +8       7.29    96.73     3.21    83.82     9.98    22.90    24.11    41.26    80.88    51.83P    0.00R    0.00  
Leicester       10   23   +7       5.93    91.19     1.93    82.48     9.62    22.48    19.23    35.90    78.26    47.02P    0.01R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   10   19   +6       3.98    81.71     4.03    72.04     9.65    11.82     3.15     7.99    38.53    14.52P    0.18R    0.01  
Reading         10   19   +6       1.89    65.69     0.92    79.62    10.02    23.34    13.61    27.00    68.44    38.64P    0.02R    0.00  
Blackpool       10   19   +4       3.58    78.57     1.37    72.16     9.78     9.84     3.22     8.16    38.65    14.98P    0.21R    0.01  
Watford         10   18  +10       1.10    59.65     4.89    78.98     9.86    28.26    12.34    25.09    67.52    36.70P    0.03R    0.00  
Blackburn       10   15   +5      -0.10    49.33     2.92    68.28     9.59    11.09     1.27     3.73    25.31     8.62P    0.52R    0.03  
Huddersfield    10   14   +4       0.73    57.34     4.50    58.35     9.41    -3.25     0.10     0.37     4.72     1.09P    5.50R    0.69  
Ipswich         10   14   +3       1.04    60.45     4.21    61.97     9.70     0.89     0.30     1.00     9.62     2.58P    2.98R    0.27  
Leeds_United    10   14   -1       1.31    62.67     0.37    61.64     9.56    -3.43     0.18     0.72     8.74     2.21P    3.10R    0.35  
Brighton        10   13   +1      -2.03    32.32    -1.07    69.09     9.54    11.14     1.53     4.18    27.73    10.35P    0.41R    0.02  
Bournemouth     10   13   -9       2.89    75.60    -2.74    48.17     9.59   -33.48     0.01     0.02     0.58     0.07P   33.94R    8.88  
Derby           10   12   +1      -1.32    39.16     1.61    62.33     9.76     2.22     0.28     0.98    10.57     2.97P    2.87R    0.31  
Wigan            8   11   +3      -2.84    23.59    -1.41    74.19    10.65    20.28     6.30    14.12    48.69    24.39P    0.27R    0.02  
Millwall        10   11   -8      -1.22    39.79    -5.93    52.05     9.23   -20.23     0.01     0.05     0.97     0.23P   18.49R    3.40  
Birmingham      10   10   -1      -3.82    19.23    -1.18    62.90     9.75     4.48     0.33     1.17    11.55     3.63P    2.43R    0.25  
Doncaster        9    9   -3      -0.82    43.45     0.85    50.03     9.85   -17.16     0.01     0.05     0.88     0.20P   26.03R    6.32  
Middlesbrough   10    9   -4      -3.48    21.27    -2.13    54.87     9.62    -9.58     0.03     0.15     2.45     0.59P   11.99R    2.00  
Charlton         9    6   -6      -5.80     7.64    -5.17    54.03     9.68    -9.71     0.03     0.12     2.16     0.55P   13.39R    2.41  
Sheff_Wed        9    5   -6      -5.73     6.74    -3.71    47.87     9.66   -17.85     0.00     0.01     0.49     0.10P   32.52R    8.46  
Yeovil          10    5   -9      -3.45    20.17    -0.80    37.92     9.12   -35.39     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   74.59R   41.40  
Bolton          10    5  -10      -7.81     2.92    -8.74    55.03     9.73    -9.08     0.03     0.13     2.43     0.69P   11.99R    2.06  
Barnsley        10    5  -14      -4.25    14.77    -6.52    42.07     9.16   -34.37     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   58.53R   23.10  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 29 September 2013, Coventry 0 2 Brentford; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient    9   25  +18       8.91    98.93    12.24    83.79    10.11    30.08    10.11    26.80    82.63    39.67P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     9   22  +12       4.48    85.47     3.48    93.41    10.42    46.32    39.45    66.23    96.13    75.69P    0.00R    0.00  
Wolverhampton    9   22  +11       4.80    87.43     3.52    93.58    10.20    43.89    39.39    66.60    96.46    76.57P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          9   19   +9       5.60    90.51     7.43    78.02    10.12    21.37     3.45    11.42    64.29    23.52P    0.10R    0.00  
Bradford         9   18  +11       5.77    90.70    11.26    62.14    10.43    -0.10     0.13     0.71    12.59     2.57P    5.86R    0.59  
MK_Dons          9   16   +6       0.96    58.47     1.85    79.51    10.06    25.38     4.29    14.44    70.33    30.54P    0.09R    0.00  
Rotherham        9   16   +4       5.06    87.75     6.50    60.20    10.57    -7.89     0.08     0.45     9.50     1.78P    9.35R    1.18  
Crawley_Town     9   15   +3       2.92    75.85     3.85    64.06    10.19    -0.26     0.13     0.77    15.68     3.33P    3.88R    0.37  
Walsall          9   15   +3       2.22    70.44     2.39    68.44    10.14     6.79     0.42     1.92    27.33     7.23P    1.47R    0.11  
Brentford        9   15   +0       1.29    61.86    -2.04    69.58    10.04     5.55     0.58     2.41    30.82     8.45P    1.08R    0.06  
Port_Vale        9   13   -2       2.43    72.05     1.06    56.75    10.53   -14.52     0.03     0.19     5.20     1.02P   15.97R    2.69  
Swindon          9   11   +2      -3.44    20.52    -1.24    74.93    10.04    21.98     1.78     6.85    53.40    20.67P    0.25R    0.01  
Colchester       9   11   -1      -0.04    50.95     1.07    54.72     9.77   -12.16     0.00     0.08     2.71     0.51P   18.70R    2.88  
Carlisle         9   11   -9       0.97    60.60    -5.09    49.61     9.74   -30.81     0.00     0.01     0.91     0.11P   37.64R    9.12  
Shrewsbury       9    8   -3      -1.84    33.98     0.77    54.96     9.78    -8.84     0.00     0.06     2.82     0.57P   18.06R    2.94  
Oldham           9    7   -3      -3.82    17.66    -0.41    49.31     9.76   -16.32     0.00     0.01     0.78     0.14P   36.92R    8.30  
Gillingham       9    6   -5      -3.77    17.98    -0.76    48.14    10.25   -18.62     0.00     0.01     0.88     0.14P   42.20R   12.12  
Crewe            9    6  -13      -2.72    25.20    -6.52    43.17     9.54   -36.66     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.01P   63.07R   25.38  
Bristol_City     9    5   -6      -7.03     4.51    -5.12    60.08    10.96     0.19     0.07     0.42    10.25     2.79P    9.92R    1.59  
Stevenage        9    5  -10      -4.95    10.22    -6.26    46.48     9.67   -24.85     0.00     0.00     0.35     0.04P   49.11R   14.79  
Tranmere         9    5  -11      -6.47     5.43    -9.59    48.87     9.78   -22.12     0.00     0.01     0.72     0.13P   39.30R    9.58  
Coventry         9    4   +4      -0.74    43.30     0.29    59.93    10.37    11.54     0.07     0.44     9.11     2.74P    8.49R    1.18  
Notts_County     9    4  -10      -7.32     3.07    -8.23    52.37    10.10   -14.41     0.00     0.01     1.90     0.37P   26.47R    5.39  
Sheff_Utd        9    4  -10      -8.63     1.46   -10.43    57.77    10.06    -5.54     0.02     0.16     5.10     1.40P   12.08R    1.73  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 28 September 2013, Burton_Albion 2 2 Scunthorpe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield          9   22  +10       6.80    95.40     5.79    85.60     9.76    28.85    42.93    74.08    93.25    79.75P    0.00R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd            9   18   +9       4.97    87.90     7.99    77.17    10.00    21.65    13.87    41.85    74.51    50.13P    0.05R    0.01  
Mansfield             9   18   +7       6.43    93.54     8.13    67.67    10.46     5.46     2.96    13.26    38.13    18.38P    1.05R    0.29  
Fleetwood_Town        9   18   +6       5.11    88.81     5.19    69.76     9.92     7.55     3.71    16.50    45.31    22.59P    0.53R    0.14  
Rochdale              9   17   +5       3.37    78.68     3.09    73.34    10.01    13.43     7.31    27.05    59.94    35.04P    0.19R    0.03  
Exeter                9   17   +2       3.21    77.96    -0.23    69.79     9.89     5.09     3.80    16.55    45.16    23.34P    0.41R    0.13  
AFC_Wimbledon         9   16   +3       5.45    90.50     5.73    62.01     9.85    -4.60     0.68     4.32    18.68     6.84P    3.33R    1.07  
Newport_County        9   15   +4       4.63    86.63     7.24    53.85    10.06   -15.47     0.15     0.97     5.45     1.71P   16.24R    6.87  
Morecambe             9   15   +2       2.76    75.01     2.24    65.50     9.89     1.75     1.59     8.31    29.29    12.85P    1.43R    0.41  
Wycombe               9   14   +3       1.41    63.59     2.59    66.90     9.99     6.28     2.14    10.79    35.24    16.45P    1.10R    0.37  
Scunthorpe            9   14   +3      -1.36    37.41    -1.52    74.42    10.33    17.51     9.96    31.82    64.27    42.00P    0.19R    0.04  
Dag_&_Red             9   13   +0       1.10    61.11     0.65    59.73     9.73    -5.98     0.33     2.59    13.00     4.63P    5.22R    1.76  
Burton_Albion         9   12   -2       0.50    55.62    -0.55    60.97    10.07    -5.42     0.60     3.66    16.55     6.26P    4.59R    1.57  
Southend              9   11   -1      -2.17    30.26    -2.27    66.57    10.04     6.32     1.98    10.44    34.29    17.16P    1.23R    0.34  
Plymouth              9   10   -4      -1.03    40.66    -2.35    54.73     9.45   -11.66     0.06     0.62     4.97     1.46P   12.38R    4.90  
Bristol_Rovers        9    9   -3      -2.46    28.24    -1.73    55.07     9.83   -10.33     0.14     1.01     6.23     2.18P   12.16R    4.91  
Portsmouth            9    9   -4      -5.65     9.87    -7.49    70.43    10.59    12.68     4.99    20.30    49.91    30.09P    0.75R    0.23  
Torquay               9    9   -4      -2.84    25.41    -3.25    57.65     9.84    -7.21     0.20     1.63     9.87     3.47P    7.85R    3.00  
Cheltenham            9    9   -7      -2.99    24.27    -6.40    58.03     9.86    -9.69     0.20     1.85    10.25     3.85P    7.67R    2.85  
Bury                  9    8   +0      -5.21    11.17    -1.27    65.64    10.71    10.44     2.13    10.46    32.75    17.08P    2.11R    0.67  
York                  9    8   -4      -2.65    26.42    -1.59    49.83     9.44   -16.94     0.01     0.19     1.93     0.50P   26.16R   12.43  
Hartlepool            9    6   -7      -6.60     5.31    -7.48    56.01    10.26    -7.48     0.23     1.39     8.28     3.36P   11.31R    4.55  
Northampton           9    5   -7      -6.75     4.51    -6.21    50.63     9.72   -14.71     0.03     0.31     2.53     0.83P   23.96R   11.47  
Accrington_Stanley    9    2  -11      -7.23     2.01    -6.29    41.86     9.35   -27.51     0.00     0.02     0.21     0.05P   60.08R   41.98  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 28 September 2013, Barnet 3 1 Salisbury; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd    12   28  +15       8.65    97.05    10.50    83.09     8.98    28.23    31.11    79.87    42.32P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         12   23   +3       8.23    95.76     5.52    68.20     8.88     1.11     1.65    19.36     4.25P    0.61R    0.02  
Kidderminster    12   22   +4       0.86    56.78    -3.53    78.82     8.99    19.92    15.94    63.91    29.35P    0.02R    0.00  
Grimsby          12   21   +4       0.41    52.74    -2.24    75.84     8.90    16.92     9.24    51.11    20.46P    0.06R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   12   21   +4       5.22    86.52     4.93    67.51     9.04     3.65     1.55    18.17     4.21P    0.81R    0.03  
Luton            12   20   +9       0.43    53.60     4.35    78.46     8.89    27.32    15.01    63.90    28.62P    0.02R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     12   20   +5       3.48    77.57     4.88    67.50     8.96     6.65     1.51    18.38     4.53P    0.73R    0.02  
Salisbury        12   20   +3       4.72    83.98     4.94    61.06     9.65    -5.41     0.44     7.07     1.52P    5.59R    0.33  
Halifax          12   20   +1       5.49    86.78     4.45    61.02     9.87    -9.01     0.49     7.36     1.54P    6.04R    0.46  
Barnet           12   19   +6      -3.00    25.93    -3.02    77.19     9.43    24.53    13.76    57.69    27.33P    0.06R    0.00  
Alfreton_Town    12   19   +1       4.16    80.81     3.83    63.80     9.09    -2.80     0.63     9.94     2.04P    2.41R    0.13  
Forest_Green     12   18   +7      -1.61    36.64     1.95    69.48     9.11    14.56     2.61    25.84     8.06P    0.45R    0.01  
Welling          12   18   +4       3.19    73.97     6.71    63.35     9.82     1.41     0.96    11.18     2.84P    3.48R    0.23  
Hereford         12   16   +0      -2.68    29.41    -3.35    66.04     8.94     5.58     1.08    14.60     4.16P    1.25R    0.05  
Southport        12   16   -4       1.55    63.41    -0.85    57.28     8.91   -13.54     0.07     2.40     0.37P    9.64R    0.76  
Gateshead        12   13   -6      -1.64    37.24    -3.13    56.64     8.96   -10.70     0.06     2.02     0.40P   10.54R    0.82  
Dartford         12   13   -8      -1.61    37.38    -5.10    53.91     8.77   -17.03     0.03     0.98     0.18P   17.46R    1.73  
Macclesfield     12   12   -3      -4.56    16.52    -3.17    57.48     9.05    -4.59     0.11     2.72     0.60P    8.76R    0.76  
Wrexham          12   12   -4      -7.73     4.97    -9.28    66.28     8.99     7.82     1.06    15.46     5.08P    1.10R    0.04  
Tamworth         12   12   -7      -0.66    45.47    -1.11    50.37     8.67   -19.78     0.00     0.32     0.05P   29.22R    3.83  
Woking           12   11   -7      -3.57    23.26    -3.42    48.76     8.82   -23.09     0.00     0.28     0.04P   36.97R    5.33  
Aldershot        12    8   +5      -2.69    28.44    -1.39    69.63     9.04    27.58     2.69    27.43    12.04P    0.53R    0.02  
Chester          12    8  -11      -3.02    26.48    -1.82    40.25     8.96   -34.46     0.00     0.03     0.00P   74.19R   27.33  
Hyde_United      12    2  -21      -8.65     1.12   -10.65    34.67     8.44   -44.87     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.05R   58.09  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10