Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 1 October 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 30 September 2013, Everton 3 2 Newcastle; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal           6   15   +6       3.29    83.26     0.69    74.71     8.77    31.21    29.05    48.63    64.21    76.55    92.70     0.00R    0.00  
Liverpool         6   13   +4       2.46    76.72     0.72    68.29     8.77    21.01     9.18    21.32    34.41    49.13    77.50     0.01R    0.00  
Tottenham         6   13   +4       2.74    79.93     1.02    66.57     8.78    18.34     6.34    15.62    27.35    41.22    70.87     0.02R    0.00  
Everton           6   12   +3       2.01    71.98     0.43    62.30     8.72    12.37     2.57     7.07    14.15    23.52    51.89     0.12R    0.02  
Chelsea           6   11   +4       0.32    53.86     0.24    71.65     8.61    29.17    16.74    34.02    50.67    65.82    87.94     0.00     0.00  
Southampton       6   11   +3       2.61    79.37     2.74    49.22     8.47    -5.56     0.06     0.23     0.71     1.70     7.15     5.12R    0.57  
Man_City          6   10   +7      -2.30    22.44     0.65    72.51     8.49    35.90    20.40    39.71    56.30    70.33    89.91     0.01R    0.00  
Hull              6   10   -1       4.31    92.01     2.93    39.91     8.09   -21.04     0.00     0.01     0.02     0.08     0.65    30.39R    6.34  
Aston_Villa       6    9   +1       3.01    83.40     4.68    49.61     8.63    -4.39     0.04     0.21     0.77     1.82     7.85     5.25R    0.62  
West_Brom         6    8   +1       0.16    53.06     1.72    50.30     8.74    -1.60     0.09     0.39     1.09     2.39     9.63     4.52R    0.55  
Cardiff           6    8   -1       1.82    73.13     1.89    42.79     8.64   -15.11     0.01     0.04     0.11     0.29     1.82    20.05R    3.78  
Man_Utd           6    7   +0      -3.88    11.15    -4.48    71.08     8.57    31.95    15.45    32.43    49.16    64.31    86.88     0.00R    0.00  
Swansea           6    7   -1       0.43    57.05     1.40    48.52     8.61    -4.50     0.05     0.17     0.51     1.31     6.22     6.48R    0.74  
Norwich           6    7   -2      -0.07    50.57    -0.44    42.15     8.37   -15.84     0.00     0.02     0.07     0.20     1.37    21.54R    4.06  
Stoke             6    7   -2       0.25    54.65    -0.01    44.46     8.18    -9.83     0.01     0.03     0.13     0.39     2.18    13.18R    1.78  
Newcastle         6    7   -4      -0.14    49.43    -2.01    43.79     8.61   -16.00     0.01     0.05     0.15     0.42     2.20    17.31R    3.20  
West_Ham          6    5   -1      -3.07    18.19    -0.91    41.90     8.40   -11.41     0.00     0.02     0.09     0.22     1.31    21.64R    4.12  
Fulham            6    4   -5      -3.19    16.31    -3.35    42.89     8.51   -12.68     0.00     0.02     0.10     0.28     1.73    18.89R    3.62  
Crystal_Palace    6    3   -6      -1.82    28.14    -0.39    28.12     7.91   -36.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    82.62R   54.06  
Sunderland        6    1  -10      -5.52     2.76    -7.51    35.16     8.23   -25.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.18    52.84R   16.56  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 1 October 2013, Barnsley 1 1 Reading; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Burnley         10   23  +13       6.38    92.87     8.58    80.14     9.66    24.87    14.02    27.68    71.10    37.91P    0.00R    0.00  
QPR              9   23   +8       7.27    96.76     3.16    84.05     9.86    23.24    24.54    41.67    81.75    52.60P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester       10   23   +7       5.90    91.08     1.87    82.49     9.70    22.50    19.26    35.99    78.00    47.07P    0.01R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   10   19   +6       3.98    81.67     4.06    72.05     9.62    11.81     3.04     7.79    38.15    14.48P    0.15R    0.00  
Reading         10   19   +6       1.90    65.71     0.98    79.58    10.13    23.21    13.67    26.92    67.97    38.49P    0.02R    0.00  
Blackpool       10   19   +4       3.56    78.44     1.33    72.05     9.67     9.69     2.90     7.77    37.96    14.34P    0.19R    0.01  
Watford         10   18  +10       0.97    58.37     4.68    79.35     9.76    28.88    12.39    25.92    68.97    37.82P    0.02R    0.00  
Blackburn       10   15   +5      -0.01    50.23     3.03    68.04     9.68    10.76     1.21     3.54    24.62     8.14P    0.63R    0.03  
Huddersfield    10   14   +4       0.70    57.13     4.47    58.41     9.39    -3.16     0.09     0.31     4.77     1.12P    5.47R    0.68  
Ipswich         10   14   +3       1.00    60.11     4.13    62.11     9.79     1.06     0.29     1.06    10.31     2.81P    2.85R    0.30  
Leeds_United    10   14   -1       1.34    62.90     0.39    61.72     9.65    -3.39     0.21     0.81     9.00     2.34P    3.01R    0.33  
Brighton        10   13   +1      -1.98    32.60    -1.01    68.93     9.48    10.92     1.37     4.01    26.91     9.86P    0.41R    0.02  
Bournemouth     10   13   -9       2.92    75.86    -2.72    48.11     9.47   -33.49     0.00     0.02     0.47     0.07P   33.82R    8.66  
Derby           10   12   +1      -1.33    39.06     1.58    62.37     9.74     2.31     0.30     1.04    10.74     3.00P    2.74R    0.28  
Wigan            8   11   +3      -2.82    23.94    -1.35    74.13    10.79    20.16     6.29    13.90    48.58    24.33P    0.28R    0.04  
Millwall        10   11   -8      -1.19    40.31    -5.87    51.91     9.22   -20.45     0.01     0.04     0.99     0.18P   18.91R    3.46  
Birmingham      10   10   -1      -3.76    19.53    -1.07    62.66     9.82     4.09     0.30     1.09    11.40     3.46P    2.52R    0.26  
Doncaster        9    9   -3      -0.90    42.84     0.71    50.32     9.82   -16.63     0.01     0.05     0.99     0.21P   24.78R    5.75  
Middlesbrough   10    9   -4      -3.54    20.76    -2.19    54.85     9.66    -9.62     0.03     0.15     2.37     0.54P   11.90R    2.07  
Charlton         9    6   -6      -5.73     7.86    -5.03    53.82     9.65   -10.01     0.02     0.10     1.90     0.45P   13.94R    2.57  
Sheff_Wed        9    5   -6      -5.67     7.03    -3.60    47.61     9.63   -18.27     0.00     0.02     0.44     0.09P   33.43R    9.03  
Yeovil          10    5   -9      -3.43    20.33    -0.83    37.89     9.11   -35.35     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   74.28R   41.19  
Bolton          10    5  -10      -7.86     2.71    -8.78    55.24     9.77    -8.78     0.03     0.13     2.50     0.67P   11.74R    2.02  
Barnsley        10    5  -14      -4.24    15.13    -6.49    42.07     9.20   -34.36     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   58.89R   23.29  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 29 September 2013, Coventry 0 2 Brentford; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient    9   25  +18       8.98    98.98    12.34    83.78    10.17    30.09    10.11    27.17    82.29    39.82P    0.02R    0.00  
Peterborough     9   22  +12       4.52    86.17     3.55    93.29    10.31    46.09    39.17    66.07    96.07    75.74P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    9   22  +11       4.78    87.36     3.49    93.59    10.22    43.83    39.78    66.83    96.39    76.80P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          9   19   +9       5.69    91.09     7.55    77.68    10.13    20.81     3.21    11.02    63.40    22.61P    0.13R    0.01  
Bradford         9   18  +11       5.74    90.62    11.18    62.31    10.36     0.22     0.18     0.71    12.75     2.66P    5.68R    0.59  
MK_Dons          9   16   +6       1.00    58.89     1.94    79.33     9.99    25.02     4.29    14.39    69.99    30.32P    0.05R    0.00  
Rotherham        9   16   +4       5.15    88.31     6.61    59.84    10.53    -8.44     0.09     0.39     8.90     1.65P    9.79R    1.23  
Crawley_Town     9   15   +3       2.90    75.57     3.84    64.13    10.24    -0.19     0.17     0.86    16.38     3.57P    3.87R    0.38  
Walsall          9   15   +3       2.28    70.91     2.49    68.15    10.13     6.35     0.44     1.91    26.69     6.89P    1.50R    0.10  
Brentford        9   15   +0       1.24    61.57    -2.13    69.61    10.06     5.64     0.65     2.62    31.31     8.77P    1.01R    0.06  
Port_Vale        9   13   -2       2.44    72.24     1.07    56.77    10.45   -14.40     0.04     0.20     5.15     1.01P   15.78R    2.54  
Swindon          9   11   +2      -3.43    20.22    -1.23    74.81    10.12    21.76     1.69     6.66    53.34    20.72P    0.29R    0.01  
Colchester       9   11   -1      -0.02    51.15     1.10    54.67     9.64   -12.20     0.01     0.05     2.61     0.45P   18.72R    2.92  
Carlisle         9   11   -9       0.98    60.53    -5.08    49.65     9.71   -30.73     0.01     0.02     0.90     0.15P   37.65R    9.06  
Shrewsbury       9    8   -3      -1.88    33.66     0.69    55.12     9.73    -8.52     0.00     0.05     2.77     0.50P   17.55R    2.63  
Oldham           9    7   -3      -3.80    17.74    -0.35    49.17     9.74   -16.54     0.00     0.01     0.84     0.14P   37.45R    8.91  
Gillingham       9    6   -5      -3.74    18.07    -0.70    48.03    10.22   -18.76     0.00     0.01     0.88     0.13P   42.90R   12.19  
Crewe            9    6  -13      -2.78    24.94    -6.69    43.31     9.65   -36.33     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.03P   63.45R   25.55  
Bristol_City     9    5   -6      -7.05     4.41    -5.16    60.19    11.01     0.36     0.10     0.46    10.64     3.02P   10.06R    1.60  
Stevenage        9    5  -10      -4.96    10.38    -6.26    46.50     9.71   -24.84     0.00     0.01     0.38     0.06P   49.16R   14.89  
Tranmere         9    5  -11      -6.53     5.30    -9.68    49.23     9.84   -21.48     0.00     0.01     0.87     0.17P   38.18R    9.15  
Coventry         9    4   +4      -0.83    42.50     0.15    60.18    10.40    11.92     0.06     0.38     9.79     2.87P    8.39R    0.99  
Notts_County     9    4  -10      -7.38     2.99    -8.33    52.58    10.16   -14.07     0.00     0.03     2.08     0.44P   26.03R    5.38  
Sheff_Utd        9    4  -10      -8.62     1.40   -10.41    57.73    10.07    -5.60     0.02     0.15     5.40     1.48P   12.35R    1.81  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 28 September 2013, Burton_Albion 2 2 Scunthorpe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield          9   22  +10       6.81    95.50     5.79    85.52     9.70    28.67    42.62    73.79    93.43    79.75P    0.00R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd            9   18   +9       4.92    87.74     7.92    77.14     9.89    21.69    13.86    41.41    74.30    49.70P    0.06R    0.01  
Mansfield             9   18   +7       6.38    93.52     8.06    67.78    10.40     5.62     2.92    13.14    38.25    18.20P    1.00R    0.29  
Fleetwood_Town        9   18   +6       5.01    88.16     5.04    70.14     9.90     8.10     4.22    17.42    46.95    23.93P    0.39R    0.09  
Rochdale              9   17   +5       3.50    79.56     3.30    72.98    10.14    12.80     7.04    26.22    58.89    34.27P    0.24R    0.06  
Exeter                9   17   +2       3.17    77.71    -0.27    69.98     9.99     5.34     4.08    16.98    46.11    23.80P    0.48R    0.14  
AFC_Wimbledon         9   16   +3       5.52    90.82     5.84    61.83     9.89    -4.94     0.63     4.17    18.03     6.58P    3.58R    1.18  
Newport_County        9   15   +4       4.64    86.62     7.24    53.93    10.00   -15.25     0.13     0.96     5.36     1.66P   15.75R    6.56  
Morecambe             9   15   +2       2.79    75.02     2.26    65.56     9.93     1.85     1.73     8.59    29.53    13.04P    1.44R    0.46  
Wycombe               9   14   +3       1.36    63.15     2.54    66.86     9.97     6.22     2.11    10.74    35.03    16.43P    1.13R    0.37  
Scunthorpe            9   14   +3      -1.28    37.90    -1.39    74.30    10.31    17.27     9.70    31.50    63.60    41.39P    0.16R    0.04  
Dag_&_Red             9   13   +0       1.08    60.90     0.63    59.83     9.80    -5.81     0.42     2.76    13.49     4.95P    5.00R    1.80  
Burton_Albion         9   12   -2       0.50    55.67    -0.58    61.00     9.98    -5.36     0.56     3.58    16.50     6.25P    4.48R    1.52  
Southend              9   11   -1      -2.20    29.95    -2.30    66.69     9.93     6.47     1.84    10.44    34.48    17.18P    1.12R    0.37  
Plymouth              9   10   -4      -1.15    39.80    -2.53    55.16     9.40   -11.04     0.08     0.74     5.40     1.76P   11.51R    4.37  
Bristol_Rovers        9    9   -3      -2.50    27.72    -1.80    55.36     9.82    -9.91     0.12     1.08     6.66     2.40P   11.57R    4.54  
Portsmouth            9    9   -4      -5.63     9.88    -7.45    70.31    10.68    12.48     5.05    20.32    49.35    29.75P    0.79R    0.24  
Torquay               9    9   -4      -2.87    24.95    -3.30    57.55     9.77    -7.23     0.24     1.74     9.41     3.50P    7.58R    2.84  
Cheltenham            9    9   -7      -2.93    24.53    -6.31    57.76     9.92   -10.06     0.22     1.78     9.90     3.72P    8.11R    2.97  
Bury                  9    8   +0      -5.21    11.31    -1.30    65.76    10.68    10.62     2.22    10.69    33.19    17.32P    2.04R    0.62  
York                  9    8   -4      -2.59    27.18    -1.49    49.49     9.37   -17.37     0.02     0.22     1.69     0.51P   27.59R   13.16  
Hartlepool            9    6   -7      -6.53     5.49    -7.39    55.76    10.17    -7.88     0.19     1.36     7.70     3.05P   11.83R    4.81  
Northampton           9    5   -7      -6.73     4.51    -6.18    50.60     9.76   -14.74     0.03     0.33     2.52     0.79P   24.13R   11.34  
Accrington_Stanley    9    2  -11      -7.25     2.19    -6.32    41.79     9.49   -27.55     0.00     0.01     0.23     0.06P   60.01R   42.22  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 28 September 2013, Barnet 3 1 Salisbury; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd    12   28  +15       8.69    96.89    10.53    82.90     8.97    27.93    30.42    79.42    41.54P    0.00R    0.00  
Nuneaton         12   23   +3       8.35    96.10     5.70    67.91     8.89     0.67     1.66    18.67     4.13P    0.64R    0.02  
Kidderminster    12   22   +4       0.86    56.85    -3.53    78.73     8.96    19.76    15.56    63.56    28.69P    0.02R    0.00  
Grimsby          12   21   +4       0.35    52.64    -2.31    75.87     8.99    16.96     9.45    51.17    20.46P    0.06R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   12   21   +4       5.26    86.63     4.97    67.50     8.93     3.60     1.46    17.86     4.15P    0.81R    0.03  
Luton            12   20   +9       0.44    53.70     4.36    78.43     8.91    27.23    14.94    63.48    28.62P    0.02R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     12   20   +5       3.44    77.23     4.78    67.57     8.99     6.77     1.60    18.74     4.84P    0.69R    0.02  
Salisbury        12   20   +3       4.75    84.02     4.98    61.18     9.76    -5.27     0.52     7.37     1.75P    5.45R    0.33  
Halifax          12   20   +1       5.49    86.73     4.49    60.98     9.84    -9.09     0.53     7.13     1.49P    6.02R    0.45  
Barnet           12   19   +6      -3.00    26.00    -3.05    77.23     9.42    24.67    14.15    58.27    27.57P    0.08R    0.00  
Alfreton_Town    12   19   +1       4.07    80.30     3.67    63.98     9.08    -2.50     0.64    10.06     2.08P    2.35R    0.09  
Forest_Green     12   18   +7      -1.60    36.58     1.96    69.54     9.09    14.69     2.78    25.80     8.16P    0.45R    0.01  
Welling          12   18   +4       3.17    73.81     6.70    63.34     9.77     1.39     0.89    11.02     2.59P    3.47R    0.20  
Hereford         12   16   +0      -2.67    29.43    -3.33    66.00     8.94     5.56     1.15    14.49     4.29P    1.21R    0.04  
Southport        12   16   -4       1.61    63.85    -0.72    56.92     8.89   -14.11     0.07     2.23     0.39P   10.43R    0.84  
Gateshead        12   13   -6      -1.59    37.59    -3.04    56.42     8.92   -11.03     0.06     1.95     0.36P   10.86R    0.94  
Dartford         12   13   -8      -1.53    38.03    -4.94    53.68     8.87   -17.39     0.03     0.94     0.17P   18.28R    1.92  
Macclesfield     12   12   -3      -4.57    16.40    -3.17    57.56     8.96    -4.46     0.10     2.62     0.58P    8.65R    0.66  
Wrexham          12   12   -4      -7.76     4.86    -9.30    66.46     9.02     8.10     1.23    15.93     5.27P    1.17R    0.06  
Tamworth         12   12   -7      -0.67    45.71    -1.11    50.49     8.67   -19.71     0.01     0.32     0.06P   28.98R    3.80  
Woking           12   11   -7      -3.53    23.25    -3.39    48.78     8.85   -22.97     0.00     0.28     0.05P   36.63R    5.43  
Aldershot        12    8   +5      -2.79    27.78    -1.53    69.92     9.04    28.00     2.75    28.69    12.76P    0.47R    0.02  
Chester          12    8  -11      -3.16    25.08    -2.05    40.62     9.02   -33.75     0.00     0.03     0.00P   72.85R   26.11  
Hyde_United      12    2  -21      -8.67     1.15   -10.65    34.56     8.42   -45.05     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.40R   59.01  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10