Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 30 September 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 30 September 2013, Everton 3 2 Newcastle; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal           6   15   +6       3.28    83.39     0.68    74.68     8.72    31.17    28.70    48.63    64.07    76.50    92.57     0.01R    0.00  
Liverpool         6   13   +4       2.42    76.23     0.64    68.34     8.77    21.13     9.53    21.45    35.15    49.48    77.61     0.01R    0.00  
Tottenham         6   13   +4       2.71    79.53     0.99    66.62     8.77    18.38     6.42    15.71    27.58    41.47    71.23     0.03R    0.00  
Everton           6   12   +3       2.00    72.05     0.40    62.39     8.66    12.51     2.51     7.16    14.24    24.01    51.86     0.11R    0.01  
Chelsea           6   11   +4       0.30    53.66     0.22    71.66     8.62    29.16    17.21    34.43    50.83    65.69    87.96     0.00R    0.00  
Southampton       6   11   +3       2.58    79.20     2.71    49.43     8.55    -5.26     0.08     0.30     0.78     1.82     7.56     4.98R    0.47  
Man_City          6   10   +7      -2.30    22.63     0.67    72.33     8.50    35.74    20.08    39.13    55.51    69.50    89.45     0.00     0.00  
Hull              6   10   -1       4.29    91.93     2.91    40.02     8.19   -20.86     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.12     0.82    29.97R    6.23  
Aston_Villa       6    9   +1       3.04    83.43     4.72    49.49     8.71    -4.57     0.07     0.28     0.74     1.78     7.72     5.47R    0.70  
West_Brom         6    8   +1       0.13    52.80     1.66    50.42     8.75    -1.41     0.11     0.44     1.13     2.47     9.50     4.32R    0.48  
Cardiff           6    8   -1       1.86    73.42     1.94    42.58     8.80   -15.42     0.01     0.05     0.14     0.38     1.98    21.11R    4.07  
Man_Utd           6    7   +0      -3.85    11.46    -4.43    70.92     8.57    31.65    15.20    32.00    48.59    63.75    86.38     0.01R    0.00  
Swansea           6    7   -1       0.45    57.35     1.41    48.58     8.59    -4.42     0.03     0.20     0.58     1.36     6.24     6.28R    0.69  
Norwich           6    7   -2      -0.08    50.31    -0.46    42.26     8.34   -15.58     0.00     0.02     0.09     0.23     1.31    20.89R    3.99  
Stoke             6    7   -2       0.26    54.84     0.01    44.59     8.21    -9.66     0.01     0.05     0.13     0.42     2.25    12.64R    1.71  
Newcastle         6    7   -4      -0.16    49.28    -2.03    43.85     8.69   -15.97     0.02     0.08     0.23     0.50     2.39    17.19R    2.98  
West_Ham          6    5   -1      -3.05    18.20    -0.88    42.09     8.34   -11.15     0.00     0.01     0.06     0.24     1.34    20.69R    3.79  
Fulham            6    4   -5      -3.19    16.32    -3.37    42.70     8.56   -12.89     0.01     0.04     0.10     0.27     1.70    19.43R    3.56  
Crystal_Palace    6    3   -6      -1.80    28.28    -0.34    28.00     7.88   -37.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    82.73R   54.08  
Sunderland        6    1  -10      -5.47     2.78    -7.44    34.88     8.21   -25.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.12    54.12R   17.25  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 28 September 2013, Bolton 1 1 Yeovil; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

QPR              9   23   +8       7.28    96.73     3.20    83.75    10.00    22.76    22.84    39.69    80.14    50.79P    0.01R    0.00  
Burnley          9   20  +11       5.17    89.68     7.22    77.47     9.86    21.27     8.93    19.29    60.38    28.98P    0.04R    0.00  
Leicester        9   20   +6       4.88    87.76     1.75    81.10     9.89    21.77    15.39    30.17    73.03    41.33P    0.01R    0.00  
Watford          9   18  +11       2.13    69.17     5.32    81.62    10.11    31.42    18.09    33.73    75.47    45.17P    0.01R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest    9   18   +6       4.40    85.56     4.16    72.26     9.86    11.66     3.17     8.06    38.96    14.68P    0.20R    0.01  
Reading          9   18   +6       2.56    72.03     1.38    81.47    10.34    25.60    17.56    32.84    74.03    44.66P    0.03R    0.00  
Blackpool        9   18   +4       4.20    83.71     1.73    73.51     9.92    11.32     3.85     9.74    43.83    16.91P    0.16R    0.02  
Huddersfield     9   13   +4       1.01    60.43     4.38    58.26     9.57    -3.95     0.10     0.36     4.90     1.11P    6.19R    0.77  
Ipswich          9   13   +3       1.27    62.84     3.90    61.61     9.92    -0.03     0.29     0.94     9.44     2.54P    3.70R    0.41  
Bournemouth      9   13   -8       3.79    82.44    -2.49    49.11     9.74   -33.03     0.00     0.02     0.69     0.10P   31.55R    8.20  
Blackburn        9   12   +4      -1.56    35.68     2.13    65.92     9.85     8.91     0.83     2.50    18.86     6.28P    1.17R    0.10  
Brighton         9   12   +1      -1.26    38.45    -0.49    70.54     9.75    12.68     2.05     5.74    32.92    12.94P    0.35R    0.04  
Wigan            8   11   +3      -2.76    24.40    -1.24    74.15    10.83    20.14     5.99    13.58    48.43    23.77P    0.33R    0.03  
Derby            9   11   +1      -0.73    44.01     1.89    63.13     9.98     3.07     0.44     1.45    12.34     3.76P    2.69R    0.30  
Leeds_United     9   11   -2       0.30    54.28     0.31    60.37     9.90    -3.85     0.18     0.65     7.39     1.87P    4.90R    0.60  
Millwall         9   11   -4      -0.73    44.02    -3.28    54.74     9.51   -14.16     0.02     0.11     2.12     0.48P   12.66R    2.17  
Doncaster        8    9   -1      -0.09    50.64     1.92    52.72    10.20   -13.11     0.03     0.14     1.86     0.47P   19.18R    4.16  
Middlesbrough    9    8   -4      -3.01    23.53    -2.00    55.59     9.92    -9.12     0.05     0.19     3.02     0.78P   11.52R    1.92  
Birmingham       9    7   -5      -4.42    13.76    -3.65    59.38     9.94    -2.49     0.13     0.49     6.44     1.93P    5.87R    0.89  
Charlton         8    5   -6      -5.37     7.76    -5.01    54.34     9.94    -9.83     0.04     0.14     2.40     0.62P   14.03R    2.66  
Yeovil           9    5   -8      -2.68    25.58    -0.82    38.66     9.33   -35.29     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   72.46R   38.57  
Sheff_Wed        8    4   -6      -5.73     5.50    -4.20    46.91     9.76   -19.94     0.00     0.02     0.43     0.10P   37.71R   10.72  
Bolton           9    4  -10      -7.69     2.38    -9.08    54.85    10.16   -10.15     0.04     0.15     2.83     0.73P   13.88R    2.75  
Barnsley         9    4  -14      -4.24    13.35    -7.04    41.67     9.38   -35.69     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   61.36R   25.69  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 29 September 2013, Coventry 0 2 Brentford; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient    9   25  +18       8.99    98.95    12.35    83.60    10.29    29.80    10.06    26.60    81.88    39.23P    0.02R    0.00  
Peterborough     9   22  +12       4.43    85.36     3.40    93.54    10.43    46.63    39.79    66.68    96.04    75.92P    0.00R    0.00  
Wolverhampton    9   22  +11       4.79    87.52     3.47    93.64    10.19    43.97    39.44    67.00    96.53    76.88P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          9   19   +9       5.68    90.82     7.55    77.69    10.23    20.90     3.26    11.28    63.42    23.04P    0.11R    0.00  
Bradford         9   18  +11       5.80    90.83    11.30    61.90    10.47    -0.44     0.16     0.76    12.36     2.71P    6.36R    0.62  
MK_Dons          9   16   +6       0.98    58.73     1.91    79.41    10.04    25.12     4.28    13.99    70.22    29.93P    0.08R    0.00  
Rotherham        9   16   +4       5.10    88.07     6.55    59.99    10.43    -8.12     0.05     0.35     8.71     1.64P    9.37R    1.14  
Crawley_Town     9   15   +3       2.83    75.41     3.75    64.28    10.19     0.04     0.14     0.81    16.41     3.51P    3.77R    0.31  
Walsall          9   15   +3       2.23    70.39     2.41    68.40    10.12     6.78     0.44     1.96    27.20     7.13P    1.38R    0.10  
Brentford        9   15   +0       1.23    61.18    -2.13    69.75    10.15     5.84     0.65     2.66    31.83     9.29P    0.99R    0.05  
Port_Vale        9   13   -2       2.38    71.88     0.95    56.89    10.48   -14.32     0.02     0.16     5.31     1.00P   15.66R    2.55  
Swindon          9   11   +2      -3.42    20.57    -1.20    74.78    10.21    21.73     1.56     6.69    53.11    20.49P    0.32R    0.01  
Colchester       9   11   -1      -0.00    51.08     1.15    54.41     9.68   -12.64     0.01     0.06     2.44     0.44P   19.58R    3.07  
Carlisle         9   11   -9       0.99    60.99    -5.08    49.64     9.63   -30.71     0.01     0.02     0.82     0.11P   38.01R    8.96  
Shrewsbury       9    8   -3      -1.86    34.02     0.76    54.95     9.82    -8.86     0.00     0.03     3.02     0.61P   18.02R    3.01  
Oldham           9    7   -3      -3.80    17.89    -0.36    49.30     9.71   -16.31     0.00     0.01     0.83     0.16P   37.04R    8.80  
Gillingham       9    6   -5      -3.67    18.70    -0.58    47.83    10.19   -19.15     0.00     0.01     0.79     0.13P   43.53R   12.42  
Crewe            9    6  -13      -2.76    24.99    -6.63    43.28     9.59   -36.53     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.02P   63.02R   24.88  
Bristol_City     9    5   -6      -7.01     4.45    -5.07    59.77    11.07    -0.34     0.07     0.40    10.19     2.66P   10.80R    1.78  
Stevenage        9    5  -10      -4.98    10.53    -6.29    46.62     9.75   -24.71     0.00     0.01     0.40     0.08P   48.58R   14.79  
Tranmere         9    5  -11      -6.50     5.56    -9.63    49.21     9.88   -21.50     0.00     0.01     0.78     0.17P   38.12R    9.42  
Coventry         9    4   +4      -0.80    42.68     0.18    60.14    10.37    11.92     0.05     0.35     9.64     2.86P    8.31R    1.15  
Notts_County     9    4  -10      -7.39     2.94    -8.31    52.73    10.15   -13.86     0.00     0.02     2.07     0.42P   25.35R    5.25  
Sheff_Utd        9    4  -10      -8.64     1.49   -10.47    58.02    10.05    -5.24     0.01     0.14     5.84     1.57P   11.59R    1.69  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 28 September 2013, Burton_Albion 2 2 Scunthorpe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield          9   22  +10       6.78    95.40     5.77    85.70     9.78    29.01    43.47    74.49    93.32    80.42P    0.01R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd            9   18   +9       4.90    87.49     7.86    77.32    10.00    21.93    14.01    42.30    74.84    50.82P    0.05R    0.01  
Mansfield             9   18   +7       6.41    93.54     8.10    67.76    10.42     5.57     2.83    13.23    38.35    18.30P    1.14R    0.34  
Fleetwood_Town        9   18   +6       5.03    88.28     5.07    69.97     9.95     7.86     3.95    16.94    46.40    23.30P    0.44R    0.10  
Rochdale              9   17   +5       3.41    78.83     3.15    73.22    10.14    13.23     7.34    26.83    59.30    34.76P    0.23R    0.05  
Exeter                9   17   +2       3.16    77.76    -0.30    69.98     9.90     5.33     3.83    16.79    45.78    23.67P    0.44R    0.12  
AFC_Wimbledon         9   16   +3       5.49    90.75     5.80    61.74     9.77    -5.03     0.58     3.85    17.84     6.29P    3.40R    1.08  
Newport_County        9   15   +4       4.66    87.03     7.32    53.75     9.98   -15.68     0.10     0.85     5.14     1.49P   16.14R    6.75  
Morecambe             9   15   +2       2.76    74.90     2.22    65.56     9.91     1.87     1.53     8.45    29.93    13.07P    1.53R    0.46  
Wycombe               9   14   +3       1.39    63.68     2.57    66.79     9.92     6.13     2.09    10.35    34.72    15.95P    1.06R    0.31  
Scunthorpe            9   14   +3      -1.32    37.30    -1.43    74.16    10.39    17.10     9.51    31.40    63.41    41.43P    0.21R    0.04  
Dag_&_Red             9   13   +0       1.08    60.78     0.64    59.70     9.80    -6.03     0.35     2.62    13.20     4.71P    5.28R    1.89  
Burton_Albion         9   12   -2       0.48    55.47    -0.57    61.01     9.97    -5.43     0.49     3.49    16.52     6.16P    4.54R    1.51  
Southend              9   11   -1      -2.18    30.27    -2.31    66.83    10.01     6.68     2.04    10.67    35.18    17.40P    1.07R    0.31  
Plymouth              9   10   -4      -1.09    40.36    -2.47    55.09     9.39   -11.11     0.06     0.71     5.28     1.66P   11.34R    4.24  
Bristol_Rovers        9    9   -3      -2.55    27.51    -1.86    55.27     9.80   -10.03     0.12     0.98     6.46     2.07P   11.88R    4.79  
Portsmouth            9    9   -4      -5.61    10.04    -7.42    70.26    10.65    12.43     4.94    19.92    48.90    29.28P    0.79R    0.23  
Torquay               9    9   -4      -2.86    24.98    -3.27    57.65     9.86    -7.14     0.20     1.80     9.79     3.71P    7.73R    2.95  
Cheltenham            9    9   -7      -2.97    24.15    -6.36    58.10     9.85    -9.57     0.24     1.86    10.36     3.79P    7.45R    2.88  
Bury                  9    8   +0      -5.16    11.55    -1.23    65.80    10.65    10.69     2.11    10.69    33.41    17.38P    2.11R    0.67  
York                  9    8   -4      -2.54    27.37    -1.41    49.45     9.34   -17.54     0.02     0.17     1.57     0.40P   27.56R   13.18  
Hartlepool            9    6   -7      -6.50     5.67    -7.34    55.74    10.12    -7.91     0.16     1.33     7.60     3.12P   11.41R    4.62  
Northampton           9    5   -7      -6.73     4.56    -6.18    50.49     9.70   -14.82     0.03     0.26     2.42     0.78P   24.10R   11.49  
Accrington_Stanley    9    2  -11      -7.25     2.15    -6.35    41.78     9.41   -27.54     0.00     0.01     0.28     0.06P   60.08R   41.97  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 28 September 2013, Barnet 3 1 Salisbury; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd    12   28  +15       8.59    96.84    10.45    83.01     9.01    28.12    31.57    79.41    42.39P    0.00R    0.00  
Nuneaton         12   23   +3       8.24    95.86     5.54    68.20     8.90     1.09     1.62    19.60     4.34P    0.64R    0.02  
Kidderminster    12   22   +4       0.88    56.94    -3.49    78.66     8.94    19.71    15.39    63.48    28.75P    0.01R    0.00  
Grimsby          12   21   +4       0.39    52.85    -2.28    75.85     8.90    16.93     9.15    51.19    20.19P    0.05R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   12   21   +4       5.26    86.55     4.99    67.43     9.04     3.55     1.61    18.13     4.40P    0.88R    0.02  
Luton            12   20   +9       0.44    53.51     4.35    78.53     8.85    27.42    15.33    64.37    29.19P    0.03R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     12   20   +5       3.41    76.80     4.74    67.66     9.02     6.90     1.55    19.14     4.86P    0.72R    0.01  
Salisbury        12   20   +3       4.66    83.71     4.81    61.33     9.52    -5.03     0.48     7.10     1.54P    4.92R    0.28  
Halifax          12   20   +1       5.57    87.37     4.62    60.81     9.75    -9.37     0.51     6.84     1.47P    6.38R    0.45  
Barnet           12   19   +6      -2.89    26.80    -2.82    76.85     9.42    24.02    13.29    56.44    26.34P    0.08R    0.00  
Alfreton_Town    12   19   +1       4.11    80.23     3.71    63.90     9.09    -2.64     0.69    10.20     2.16P    2.36R    0.12  
Forest_Green     12   18   +7      -1.61    36.70     1.96    69.57     9.02    14.73     2.65    26.26     8.24P    0.47R    0.00  
Welling          12   18   +4       3.25    74.53     6.80    63.23     9.81     1.21     0.91    11.02     2.71P    3.59R    0.22  
Hereford         12   16   +0      -2.64    29.58    -3.30    66.02     8.93     5.53     1.05    14.61     4.05P    1.14R    0.05  
Southport        12   16   -4       1.56    63.53    -0.80    57.06     8.87   -13.92     0.09     2.28     0.38P   10.16R    0.81  
Gateshead        12   13   -6      -1.62    37.43    -3.08    56.56     8.90   -10.80     0.05     1.92     0.37P   10.77R    0.93  
Dartford         12   13   -8      -1.61    37.21    -5.09    54.04     8.88   -16.86     0.02     1.02     0.17P   17.50R    1.77  
Macclesfield     12   12   -3      -4.55    16.65    -3.15    57.45     8.98    -4.63     0.12     2.69     0.66P    8.66R    0.68  
Wrexham          12   12   -4      -7.72     4.86    -9.27    66.38     9.03     7.99     1.10    15.89     5.28P    1.14R    0.05  
Tamworth         12   12   -7      -0.71    44.92    -1.19    50.48     8.63   -19.71     0.00     0.30     0.04P   29.20R    3.82  
Woking           12   11   -7      -3.58    22.96    -3.47    48.81     8.85   -22.94     0.00     0.26     0.04P   36.98R    5.56  
Aldershot        12    8   +5      -2.74    28.28    -1.48    69.75     9.02    27.80     2.83    27.81    12.42P    0.55R    0.02  
Chester          12    8  -11      -3.11    25.63    -1.99    40.53     8.94   -33.91     0.00     0.04     0.00P   73.36R   26.14  
Hyde_United      12    2  -21      -8.62     1.19   -10.58    34.52     8.46   -45.19     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.40R   59.04  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10