Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 29 September 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 29 September 2013, Stoke 0 1 Norwich; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal           6   15   +6       3.27    83.37     0.70    74.68     8.65    31.06    28.85    48.93    64.59    77.39    93.09     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool         6   13   +4       2.47    76.67     0.71    68.22     8.76    20.88     9.19    20.96    34.90    49.84    78.22     0.02R    0.00  
Tottenham         6   13   +4       2.77    80.10     1.07    66.53     8.72    18.22     6.26    15.76    27.42    41.42    71.81     0.04R    0.00  
Chelsea           6   11   +4       0.32    53.75     0.22    71.58     8.52    28.96    17.08    34.57    51.42    66.29    88.44     0.01R    0.00  
Southampton       6   11   +3       2.61    79.40     2.73    49.24     8.49    -5.47     0.05     0.27     0.79     1.75     7.56     5.19R    0.51  
Man_City          6   10   +7      -2.31    22.67     0.66    72.63     8.51    36.07    21.05    40.62    57.37    71.47    90.59     0.01R    0.00  
Hull              6   10   -1       4.34    92.08     2.97    39.76     8.12   -21.09     0.00     0.02     0.04     0.12     0.71    31.47R    6.77  
Everton           5    9   +2       1.05    62.98     0.41    60.83     8.84    11.64     1.90     5.67    11.35    19.70    46.00     0.25R    0.01  
Aston_Villa       6    9   +1       3.04    83.32     4.71    49.49     8.67    -4.50     0.06     0.24     0.75     1.85     8.15     5.40R    0.63  
West_Brom         6    8   +1       0.15    53.14     1.69    50.33     8.73    -1.51     0.09     0.36     1.13     2.46     9.93     4.40R    0.56  
Cardiff           6    8   -1       1.83    73.06     1.88    42.65     8.69   -15.25     0.01     0.03     0.12     0.35     1.88    20.93R    4.05  
Man_Utd           6    7   +0      -3.85    11.38    -4.41    70.91     8.53    31.53    15.39    32.23    48.96    64.24    87.04     0.00R    0.00  
Swansea           6    7   -1       0.40    56.59     1.31    48.76     8.55    -4.08     0.04     0.18     0.62     1.52     6.76     5.95R    0.64  
Norwich           6    7   -2      -0.12    49.75    -0.54    42.25     8.26   -15.51     0.00     0.01     0.07     0.23     1.36    20.79R    3.92  
Stoke             6    7   -2       0.26    54.93    -0.00    44.35     8.10    -9.88     0.00     0.03     0.09     0.30     2.14    13.62R    1.81  
Newcastle         5    7   -3       0.63    59.66    -1.95    44.65     8.74   -15.47     0.02     0.08     0.24     0.61     3.01    15.22R    2.66  
West_Ham          6    5   -1      -3.07    17.83    -0.95    42.03     8.30   -11.19     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.17     1.35    20.66R    3.88  
Fulham            6    4   -5      -3.14    16.58    -3.33    42.74     8.50   -12.77     0.01     0.03     0.08     0.26     1.77    19.50R    3.51  
Crystal_Palace    6    3   -6      -1.78    28.45    -0.36    28.12     7.83   -36.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    83.06R   54.11  
Sunderland        6    1  -10      -5.53     2.70    -7.54    35.10     8.17   -25.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.17    53.48R   16.95  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 28 September 2013, Bolton 1 1 Yeovil; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

QPR              9   23   +8       7.21    96.46     3.11    83.91    10.02    23.03    23.66    40.63    80.69    51.76P    0.00R    0.00  
Burnley          9   20  +11       5.21    89.69     7.28    77.57     9.97    21.44     9.32    20.03    60.98    29.43P    0.04R    0.01  
Leicester        9   20   +6       4.87    88.02     1.75    81.22     9.91    21.95    15.84    30.90    73.73    42.11P    0.01R    0.00  
Watford          9   18  +11       2.21    69.76     5.44    81.35    10.06    30.88    17.28    32.64    74.89    43.97P    0.02R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest    9   18   +6       4.37    85.43     4.11    72.33     9.79    11.73     3.16     8.16    39.47    14.77P    0.17R    0.02  
Reading          9   18   +6       2.61    72.61     1.48    81.08    10.32    25.06    16.70    31.41    72.62    43.29P    0.03R    0.00  
Blackpool        9   18   +4       4.13    83.25     1.63    73.56    10.01    11.32     4.16    10.33    44.38    17.55P    0.16R    0.01  
Huddersfield     9   13   +4       1.02    60.07     4.37    58.23     9.65    -4.01     0.10     0.37     5.05     1.26P    6.65R    0.90  
Ipswich          9   13   +3       1.25    62.84     3.88    61.59     9.79    -0.01     0.25     0.87     9.26     2.43P    3.53R    0.45  
Bournemouth      9   13   -8       3.83    82.94    -2.46    48.96     9.84   -33.25     0.01     0.05     0.71     0.13P   32.24R    8.49  
Blackburn        9   12   +4      -1.55    36.07     2.13    65.86     9.96     8.82     0.83     2.53    19.01     6.32P    1.47R    0.13  
Brighton         9   12   +1      -1.11    39.56    -0.31    70.02     9.69    11.97     1.76     5.19    30.88    11.90P    0.41R    0.02  
Wigan            8   11   +3      -2.77    24.13    -1.27    74.06    10.69    19.97     5.99    13.40    48.19    23.87P    0.29R    0.02  
Derby            9   11   +1      -0.75    43.80     1.83    63.24     9.99     3.21     0.43     1.47    12.71     3.85P    2.56R    0.25  
Leeds_United     9   11   -2       0.27    54.05     0.27    60.45     9.82    -3.75     0.19     0.68     7.36     2.04P    4.68R    0.68  
Millwall         9   11   -4      -0.73    43.82    -3.27    54.85     9.52   -14.02     0.03     0.13     2.30     0.54P   12.52R    2.14  
Doncaster        8    9   -1      -0.04    51.02     1.96    52.56    10.22   -13.28     0.02     0.12     1.86     0.49P   19.60R    4.25  
Middlesbrough    9    8   -4      -3.00    23.54    -1.96    55.60     9.87    -9.04     0.06     0.20     3.12     0.74P   11.73R    2.02  
Birmingham       9    7   -5      -4.50    13.27    -3.76    59.60     9.98    -2.10     0.15     0.58     6.82     2.02P    5.73R    0.86  
Charlton         8    5   -6      -5.40     7.82    -5.07    54.50     9.96    -9.58     0.03     0.15     2.60     0.63P   13.79R    2.52  
Yeovil           9    5   -8      -2.70    25.43    -0.87    38.99     9.35   -34.75     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   71.26R   36.92  
Sheff_Wed        8    4   -6      -5.76     5.60    -4.28    47.15     9.83   -19.58     0.00     0.01     0.43     0.08P   36.90R   10.58  
Bolton           9    4  -10      -7.73     2.31    -9.10    55.03    10.08    -9.80     0.03     0.15     2.85     0.82P   13.76R    2.56  
Barnsley         9    4  -14      -4.21    13.45    -6.90    41.35     9.35   -36.19     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   62.42R   27.18  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 29 September 2013, Coventry 0 2 Brentford; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient    9   25  +18       8.95    98.94    12.32    83.62    10.13    29.83     9.98    26.58    82.18    39.43P    0.01R    0.00  
Peterborough     9   22  +12       4.46    85.56     3.45    93.56    10.30    46.50    39.80    67.17    96.19    76.41P    0.00R    0.00  
Wolverhampton    9   22  +11       4.75    87.42     3.45    93.62    10.21    43.94    39.32    66.95    96.60    76.97P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          9   19   +9       5.68    90.94     7.54    77.76    10.16    20.92     3.33    11.04    63.71    22.72P    0.11R    0.00  
Bradford         9   18  +11       5.77    90.79    11.23    62.31    10.44     0.20     0.18     0.78    13.01     2.72P    5.67R    0.64  
MK_Dons          9   16   +6       1.03    59.61     1.99    79.21    10.09    24.87     4.29    14.01    69.35    29.89P    0.07R    0.00  
Rotherham        9   16   +4       5.04    87.82     6.46    60.14    10.57    -7.85     0.09     0.47     9.23     1.86P    9.43R    1.20  
Crawley_Town     9   15   +3       2.87    75.50     3.79    64.02    10.19    -0.35     0.13     0.77    16.00     3.38P    3.93R    0.34  
Walsall          9   15   +3       2.29    71.14     2.51    68.09    10.08     6.28     0.38     1.75    26.41     6.75P    1.56R    0.12  
Brentford        9   15   +0       1.20    61.02    -2.15    69.83    10.05     6.00     0.64     2.64    31.81     9.15P    0.99R    0.07  
Port_Vale        9   13   -2       2.38    71.94     0.96    57.05    10.62   -14.07     0.03     0.19     5.72     1.07P   15.67R    2.65  
Swindon          9   11   +2      -3.42    20.49    -1.23    74.75    10.17    21.77     1.67     6.51    53.19    20.49P    0.28R    0.02  
Colchester       9   11   -1      -0.00    51.14     1.12    54.57     9.70   -12.39     0.01     0.04     2.64     0.48P   19.23R    3.08  
Carlisle         9   11   -9       0.97    60.76    -5.12    49.78     9.69   -30.44     0.00     0.01     0.90     0.12P   37.08R    8.82  
Shrewsbury       9    8   -3      -1.82    34.11     0.81    54.82     9.75    -9.10     0.00     0.04     2.77     0.57P   18.40R    3.00  
Oldham           9    7   -3      -3.86    17.28    -0.49    49.35     9.61   -16.23     0.00     0.01     0.74     0.12P   36.46R    8.26  
Gillingham       9    6   -5      -3.76    18.06    -0.69    48.08    10.17   -18.80     0.00     0.01     0.78     0.14P   42.59R   12.08  
Crewe            9    6  -13      -2.74    24.83    -6.59    43.17     9.61   -36.65     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.03P   63.39R   25.77  
Bristol_City     9    5   -6      -7.03     4.58    -5.12    59.94    11.22    -0.05     0.08     0.50    10.59     2.91P   10.87R    1.81  
Stevenage        9    5  -10      -4.91    10.35    -6.20    46.42     9.60   -24.94     0.00     0.00     0.35     0.05P   49.41R   14.55  
Tranmere         9    5  -11      -6.48     5.62    -9.60    49.16     9.89   -21.64     0.00     0.01     0.87     0.19P   38.64R    9.37  
Coventry         9    4   +4      -0.72    43.30     0.30    59.93    10.36    11.63     0.06     0.37     9.17     2.61P    8.60R    1.19  
Notts_County     9    4  -10      -7.36     2.90    -8.30    52.61    10.14   -14.03     0.00     0.03     2.06     0.45P   25.86R    5.27  
Sheff_Utd        9    4  -10      -8.63     1.37   -10.45    57.91    10.07    -5.38     0.01     0.13     5.55     1.49P   11.76R    1.77  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 28 September 2013, Burton_Albion 2 2 Scunthorpe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield          9   22  +10       6.84    95.72     5.85    85.61     9.71    28.86    43.06    73.94    93.24    79.69P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd            9   18   +9       4.92    87.68     7.92    77.20    10.01    21.79    13.68    41.87    74.13    50.21P    0.05R    0.01  
Mansfield             9   18   +7       6.35    93.23     8.01    67.94    10.54     5.84     3.17    13.73    38.94    18.79P    1.05R    0.30  
Fleetwood_Town        9   18   +6       5.05    88.65     5.10    69.90     9.88     7.78     3.80    16.70    46.03    22.93P    0.42R    0.14  
Rochdale              9   17   +5       3.43    79.29     3.21    73.17    10.08    13.13     7.02    26.39    59.08    34.27P    0.17R    0.04  
Exeter                9   17   +2       3.18    77.64    -0.27    70.00     9.93     5.38     3.99    16.81    45.94    23.76P    0.47R    0.12  
AFC_Wimbledon         9   16   +3       5.46    90.68     5.76    61.88     9.88    -4.85     0.63     4.20    18.28     6.78P    3.37R    1.15  
Newport_County        9   15   +4       4.69    87.20     7.34    53.58    10.05   -15.87     0.13     0.94     5.29     1.63P   16.57R    7.01  
Morecambe             9   15   +2       2.72    74.67     2.16    65.77     9.91     2.15     1.64     8.70    30.37    13.46P    1.34R    0.39  
Wycombe               9   14   +3       1.39    63.51     2.58    66.88     9.94     6.20     2.17    10.52    34.69    16.11P    1.01R    0.31  
Scunthorpe            9   14   +3      -1.28    37.88    -1.40    74.27    10.46    17.25     9.82    31.77    63.29    41.48P    0.22R    0.06  
Dag_&_Red             9   13   +0       1.16    61.59     0.75    59.59     9.82    -6.23     0.35     2.46    12.98     4.55P    5.47R    1.98  
Burton_Albion         9   12   -2       0.48    55.12    -0.62    61.23    10.08    -5.02     0.58     3.75    17.13     6.45P    4.33R    1.49  
Southend              9   11   -1      -2.17    30.13    -2.28    66.61    10.04     6.35     1.93    10.33    34.06    16.90P    1.21R    0.35  
Plymouth              9   10   -4      -1.08    40.45    -2.44    54.82     9.41   -11.48     0.06     0.69     5.00     1.52P   12.09R    4.58  
Bristol_Rovers        9    9   -3      -2.54    27.53    -1.85    55.27     9.87   -10.06     0.12     1.10     6.60     2.23P   11.61R    4.73  
Portsmouth            9    9   -4      -5.67     9.75    -7.50    70.48    10.62    12.77     5.06    20.24    49.69    29.86P    0.69R    0.20  
Torquay               9    9   -4      -2.85    25.41    -3.25    57.42     9.83    -7.49     0.22     1.51     9.24     3.28P    8.03R    3.20  
Cheltenham            9    9   -7      -2.91    24.80    -6.30    57.84     9.94    -9.97     0.20     1.83    10.15     3.84P    8.03R    2.93  
Bury                  9    8   +0      -5.26    11.00    -1.37    65.96    10.68    10.92     2.18    10.77    33.85    17.99P    1.92R    0.61  
York                  9    8   -4      -2.63    26.59    -1.56    49.71     9.37   -17.12     0.01     0.19     1.69     0.48P   26.41R   12.34  
Hartlepool            9    6   -7      -6.48     5.58    -7.33    55.64    10.20    -8.07     0.15     1.25     7.56     2.92P   11.84R    4.97  
Northampton           9    5   -7      -6.74     4.51    -6.18    50.54     9.79   -14.79     0.03     0.29     2.49     0.81P   24.02R   11.68  
Accrington_Stanley    9    2  -11      -7.26     2.03    -6.34    41.86     9.40   -27.47     0.00     0.02     0.28     0.06P   59.68R   41.42  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 28 September 2013, Barnet 3 1 Salisbury; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd    12   28  +15       8.59    97.00    10.43    83.21     8.99    28.40    31.85    80.26    42.84P    0.01R    0.00  
Nuneaton         12   23   +3       8.25    95.82     5.58    68.14     8.94     1.04     1.62    19.38     4.45P    0.69R    0.02  
Kidderminster    12   22   +4       0.90    57.07    -3.48    78.65     9.02    19.65    15.23    63.06    28.33P    0.02R    0.00  
Grimsby          12   21   +4       0.36    52.69    -2.29    75.96     8.90    17.12     9.48    51.44    20.38P    0.06R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   12   21   +4       5.25    86.42     4.96    67.43     9.07     3.55     1.63    18.17     4.40P    0.89R    0.04  
Luton            12   20   +9       0.48    53.77     4.39    78.40     8.88    27.23    14.77    63.80    28.82P    0.01R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     12   20   +5       3.40    76.77     4.73    67.71     9.02     6.98     1.61    19.11     4.87P    0.83R    0.02  
Salisbury        12   20   +3       4.74    84.10     4.95    61.05     9.55    -5.50     0.43     6.73     1.46P    5.20R    0.34  
Halifax          12   20   +1       5.45    86.67     4.46    61.10     9.82    -8.93     0.55     7.41     1.61P    5.81R    0.46  
Barnet           12   19   +6      -2.91    26.78    -2.91    77.03     9.41    24.28    13.39    57.00    26.45P    0.05R    0.00  
Alfreton_Town    12   19   +1       4.12    80.49     3.76    63.82     9.12    -2.73     0.60     9.98     1.98P    2.46R    0.19  
Forest_Green     12   18   +7      -1.59    36.97     1.95    69.50     9.09    14.64     2.62    26.09     8.09P    0.51R    0.01  
Welling          12   18   +4       3.22    74.19     6.78    63.33     9.88     1.34     1.02    11.28     2.81P    3.63R    0.18  
Hereford         12   16   +0      -2.68    29.38    -3.34    65.94     8.98     5.41     1.17    14.52     4.24P    1.23R    0.03  
Southport        12   16   -4       1.62    64.01    -0.70    57.05     8.92   -13.97     0.08     2.20     0.41P   10.23R    0.83  
Gateshead        12   13   -6      -1.60    37.53    -3.04    56.46     8.88   -10.90     0.05     1.87     0.33P   10.69R    0.92  
Dartford         12   13   -8      -1.62    36.99    -5.09    53.84     8.75   -17.12     0.03     0.87     0.16P   17.58R    1.78  
Macclesfield     12   12   -3      -4.58    16.63    -3.22    57.60     9.08    -4.48     0.09     2.82     0.66P    9.02R    0.71  
Wrexham          12   12   -4      -7.78     4.92    -9.33    66.44     9.00     8.09     1.15    15.86     5.29P    1.11R    0.05  
Tamworth         12   12   -7      -0.68    45.61    -1.17    50.44     8.67   -19.75     0.01     0.34     0.05P   28.99R    3.79  
Woking           12   11   -7      -3.56    23.11    -3.43    48.77     8.81   -23.04     0.00     0.22     0.03P   37.23R    5.33  
Aldershot        12    8   +5      -2.72    28.49    -1.44    69.62     9.07    27.61     2.61    27.58    12.35P    0.49R    0.02  
Chester          12    8  -11      -3.09    25.82    -1.96    40.54     8.96   -33.90     0.00     0.02     0.00P   73.14R   26.63  
Hyde_United      12    2  -21      -8.65     1.15   -10.62    34.63     8.46   -45.03     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.11R   58.65  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10