Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 28 September 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 28 September 2013, Aston_Villa 3 2 Man_City; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal           6   15   +6       3.33    83.77     0.78    74.73     8.64    31.19    29.95    50.43    66.43    78.70    93.39     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham         6   13   +4       2.74    80.01     1.01    66.48     8.72    18.21     6.58    16.57    28.85    43.28    72.66     0.02R    0.00  
Chelsea           6   11   +4       0.37    54.76     0.27    71.37     8.56    28.66    16.90    34.68    51.70    67.02    88.46     0.00R    0.00  
Southampton       6   11   +3       2.58    79.19     2.69    49.20     8.48    -5.54     0.08     0.28     0.81     1.76     7.87     5.30R    0.56  
Man_City          6   10   +7      -2.28    22.90     0.73    72.44     8.48    35.78    21.33    41.22    58.32    72.49    90.93     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool         5   10   +2       1.48    68.15    -0.37    66.05     8.91    18.04     6.66    16.04    27.74    41.57    70.90     0.05R    0.00  
Hull              6   10   -1       4.27    91.96     2.91    39.89     8.13   -20.89     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.10     0.76    31.24R    6.78  
Everton           5    9   +2       1.08    63.33     0.43    60.79     8.82    11.61     2.27     6.08    12.21    20.73    46.99     0.26R    0.01  
Aston_Villa       6    9   +1       2.95    82.78     4.59    49.67     8.64    -4.22     0.07     0.34     0.96     2.15     8.86     5.37R    0.67  
West_Brom         6    8   +1       0.14    53.04     1.68    50.52     8.67    -1.19     0.10     0.46     1.20     2.76    10.73     4.33R    0.53  
Cardiff           6    8   -1       1.84    73.50     1.87    42.83     8.74   -14.99     0.00     0.04     0.17     0.43     2.23    20.82R    4.15  
Man_Utd           6    7   +0      -3.85    11.21    -4.46    70.78     8.63    31.40    15.96    33.42    50.22    65.22    87.09     0.01R    0.00  
Swansea           6    7   -1       0.39    56.50     1.31    48.63     8.50    -4.25     0.04     0.16     0.53     1.50     6.90     6.33R    0.69  
Stoke             5    7   -1       1.71    74.57     1.10    46.55     8.33    -7.76     0.02     0.09     0.30     0.83     4.17     9.41R    1.12  
Newcastle         5    7   -3       0.63    59.48    -1.95    44.78     8.74   -15.23     0.02     0.11     0.29     0.72     3.46    15.24R    2.58  
West_Ham          6    5   -1      -3.07    17.93    -0.92    42.03     8.32   -11.16     0.00     0.02     0.08     0.20     1.46    21.30R    3.95  
Norwich           5    4   -3      -1.86    27.48    -1.59    39.48     8.47   -18.36     0.00     0.02     0.05     0.15     0.77    33.00R    8.04  
Fulham            6    4   -5      -3.18    16.19    -3.39    43.02     8.43   -12.40     0.00     0.02     0.09     0.33     1.93    18.67R    3.36  
Crystal_Palace    6    3   -6      -1.77    28.57    -0.30    28.21     7.84   -36.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    82.90R   54.75  
Sunderland        5    1   -8      -4.71     4.14    -6.38    36.73     8.38   -22.33     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.06     0.41    45.76R   12.81  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 28 September 2013, Bolton 1 1 Yeovil; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

QPR              9   23   +8       7.31    96.84     3.25    83.50     9.98    22.40    22.23    39.13    79.76    50.04P    0.01R    0.00  
Burnley          9   20  +11       5.16    89.50     7.22    77.56     9.93    21.45     9.17    19.85    60.93    29.61P    0.03R    0.00  
Leicester        9   20   +6       4.82    87.67     1.67    81.34     9.91    22.12    16.34    31.06    73.94    42.43P    0.01R    0.00  
Watford          9   18  +11       2.21    69.77     5.44    81.23    10.06    30.68    16.96    32.33    74.40    43.71P    0.02R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest    9   18   +6       4.41    85.58     4.16    72.21     9.87    11.55     3.32     8.25    38.95    14.70P    0.20R    0.01  
Reading          9   18   +6       2.59    72.34     1.45    81.25    10.39    25.24    17.37    32.16    73.09    43.85P    0.03R    0.00  
Blackpool        9   18   +4       4.19    83.70     1.73    73.63     9.93    11.46     4.28    10.39    44.26    17.61P    0.13R    0.00  
Huddersfield     9   13   +4       1.00    60.11     4.36    58.28     9.63    -3.92     0.13     0.37     4.91     1.20P    6.43R    0.89  
Ipswich          9   13   +3       1.29    62.93     3.93    61.60     9.92    -0.03     0.30     1.00     9.45     2.59P    3.73R    0.40  
Bournemouth      9   13   -8       3.80    82.61    -2.52    49.18     9.74   -32.79     0.02     0.05     0.76     0.13P   31.44R    7.88  
Blackburn        9   12   +4      -1.60    35.26     2.06    66.11     9.97     9.22     0.88     2.66    19.47     6.71P    1.33R    0.15  
Brighton         9   12   +1      -1.17    39.31    -0.39    70.18     9.76    12.17     1.94     5.43    31.70    12.30P    0.40R    0.04  
Wigan            8   11   +3      -2.82    23.74    -1.35    74.36    10.79    20.47     6.12    14.11    49.23    24.51P    0.24R    0.02  
Derby            9   11   +1      -0.67    44.64     1.95    62.92     9.93     2.72     0.39     1.25    12.00     3.52P    2.78R    0.33  
Leeds_United     9   11   -2       0.30    54.09     0.30    60.41     9.83    -3.82     0.20     0.66     7.45     2.01P    4.72R    0.62  
Millwall         9   11   -4      -0.79    43.39    -3.34    54.91     9.56   -13.85     0.05     0.16     2.39     0.52P   12.53R    2.01  
Doncaster        8    9   -1      -0.05    50.98     1.98    52.64    10.17   -13.22     0.03     0.13     2.00     0.45P   19.36R    4.14  
Middlesbrough    9    8   -4      -2.99    23.51    -1.96    55.47     9.82    -9.24     0.05     0.17     2.70     0.67P   11.66R    2.09  
Birmingham       9    7   -5      -4.44    13.65    -3.71    59.47    10.08    -2.30     0.15     0.53     6.84     1.96P    6.09R    0.84  
Charlton         8    5   -6      -5.36     8.06    -5.02    54.35     9.90    -9.82     0.04     0.15     2.49     0.63P   14.06R    2.45  
Yeovil           9    5   -8      -2.71    25.24    -0.84    38.83     9.40   -35.06     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P   71.46R   37.95  
Sheff_Wed        8    4   -6      -5.78     5.53    -4.29    47.13     9.75   -19.60     0.01     0.02     0.44     0.09P   37.05R   10.36  
Bolton           9    4  -10      -7.73     2.27    -9.15    55.08    10.01    -9.66     0.03     0.15     2.74     0.74P   13.25R    2.42  
Barnsley         9    4  -14      -4.22    13.31    -6.94    41.30     9.39   -36.16     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   63.04R   27.39  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 28 September 2013, Bradford 2 1 Shrewsbury; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient    9   25  +18       8.87    98.92    12.17    83.68    10.15    29.91    10.09    26.60    82.13    39.09P    0.00R    0.00  
Peterborough     9   22  +12       4.50    85.70     3.52    93.39    10.37    46.42    39.31    66.15    96.05    75.92P    0.00R    0.00  
Wolverhampton    9   22  +11       4.81    87.59     3.52    93.57    10.19    43.87    39.41    66.80    96.56    76.84P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          9   19   +9       5.74    91.09     7.63    77.67    10.16    20.84     3.22    10.94    63.60    22.66P    0.11R    0.00  
Bradford         9   18  +11       5.75    90.70    11.19    62.16    10.33    -0.12     0.13     0.69    12.84     2.52P    5.74R    0.64  
MK_Dons          9   16   +6       0.91    58.18     1.75    79.71    10.11    25.70     4.91    15.39    71.24    31.18P    0.05R    0.00  
Rotherham        9   16   +4       5.12    88.18     6.57    59.75    10.55    -8.65     0.08     0.39     8.80     1.62P   10.17R    1.26  
Crawley_Town     9   15   +3       2.89    75.67     3.82    64.17    10.17    -0.10     0.14     0.82    16.07     3.41P    3.74R    0.33  
Walsall          9   15   +3       2.23    70.34     2.42    67.99    10.16     6.12     0.38     1.82    26.33     6.83P    1.67R    0.09  
Port_Vale        9   13   -2       2.42    71.79     1.01    56.98    10.55   -14.17     0.04     0.18     5.50     0.98P   15.58R    2.60  
Brentford        8   12   -2      -0.20    48.18    -3.87    66.19    10.32     0.75     0.28     1.31    21.03     5.38P    2.72R    0.22  
Swindon          9   11   +2      -3.45    19.93    -1.28    75.14    10.17    22.35     1.68     7.18    54.74    21.69P    0.27R    0.01  
Colchester       9   11   -1       0.03    51.55     1.22    54.68     9.70   -12.21     0.01     0.07     2.67     0.50P   18.74R    2.88  
Carlisle         9   11   -9       0.99    60.77    -5.03    49.50     9.76   -31.10     0.01     0.01     0.91     0.13P   38.58R    9.19  
Shrewsbury       9    8   -3      -1.85    33.96     0.78    55.20     9.78    -8.48     0.00     0.04     2.95     0.55P   17.68R    2.73  
Oldham           9    7   -3      -3.78    17.81    -0.35    49.18     9.66   -16.57     0.00     0.01     0.82     0.14P   37.10R    8.50  
Gillingham       9    6   -5      -3.73    18.33    -0.65    48.14    10.20   -18.71     0.00     0.02     0.85     0.16P   42.59R   11.86  
Crewe            9    6  -13      -2.72    25.11    -6.53    43.07     9.65   -36.94     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.01P   63.87R   26.14  
Bristol_City     9    5   -6      -7.03     4.54    -5.08    60.32    11.06     0.59     0.09     0.43    10.89     3.00P    9.94R    1.62  
Stevenage        9    5  -10      -4.97    10.28    -6.24    46.65     9.78   -24.77     0.00     0.01     0.44     0.06P   48.66R   14.68  
Tranmere         9    5  -11      -6.52     5.42    -9.61    48.77     9.73   -22.32     0.00     0.01     0.66     0.11P   39.85R    9.77  
Coventry         8    4   +6       0.35    53.00     1.80    63.57    10.75    17.31     0.19     1.00    17.30     5.35P    4.98R    0.61  
Notts_County     9    4  -10      -7.37     2.91    -8.30    52.67    10.17   -14.00     0.00     0.02     2.13     0.47P   25.62R    5.22  
Sheff_Utd        9    4  -10      -8.66     1.41   -10.46    57.70    10.02    -5.71     0.02     0.13     5.32     1.42P   12.33R    1.64  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 28 September 2013, Burton_Albion 2 2 Scunthorpe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield          9   22  +10       6.82    95.64     5.82    85.59     9.72    28.84    42.85    74.09    93.21    79.79P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd            9   18   +9       4.91    87.34     7.92    77.50     9.98    22.21    14.34    42.95    75.24    51.26P    0.05R    0.01  
Mansfield             9   18   +7       6.36    93.52     8.02    67.90    10.48     5.78     3.08    13.48    38.59    18.64P    0.99R    0.27  
Fleetwood_Town        9   18   +6       5.09    88.60     5.18    69.88     9.95     7.71     3.92    16.89    46.00    22.94P    0.46R    0.12  
Rochdale              9   17   +5       3.44    79.19     3.19    73.09    10.11    13.08     7.11    26.36    58.81    34.50P    0.19R    0.04  
Exeter                9   17   +2       3.18    77.72    -0.26    69.82     9.99     5.14     3.73    16.45    45.25    23.10P    0.58R    0.17  
AFC_Wimbledon         9   16   +3       5.50    90.85     5.80    61.88     9.85    -4.81     0.63     4.13    18.23     6.54P    3.51R    1.23  
Newport_County        9   15   +4       4.73    87.29     7.39    53.47     9.94   -16.10     0.10     0.75     4.98     1.44P   16.90R    7.20  
Morecambe             9   15   +2       2.80    74.85     2.31    65.38     9.93     1.49     1.63     8.28    28.97    12.72P    1.46R    0.43  
Wycombe               9   14   +3       1.35    63.03     2.52    66.93    10.03     6.29     2.14    10.86    35.35    16.61P    1.17R    0.34  
Scunthorpe            9   14   +3      -1.30    37.78    -1.43    74.17    10.44    17.12     9.49    31.10    63.26    41.11P    0.20R    0.05  
Dag_&_Red             9   13   +0       1.08    60.97     0.64    59.62     9.83    -6.15     0.36     2.52    13.10     4.66P    5.58R    2.02  
Burton_Albion         9   12   -2       0.50    55.61    -0.56    61.00     9.97    -5.40     0.56     3.47    16.60     6.17P    4.43R    1.54  
Southend              9   11   -1      -2.15    30.64    -2.25    66.65     9.98     6.41     1.88    10.29    34.42    16.90P    1.18R    0.35  
Plymouth              9   10   -4      -1.13    39.93    -2.51    55.06     9.42   -11.20     0.08     0.73     5.32     1.75P   11.57R    4.38  
Bristol_Rovers        9    9   -3      -2.50    27.87    -1.79    55.22     9.86   -10.08     0.13     1.06     6.51     2.22P   11.90R    4.86  
Portsmouth            9    9   -4      -5.65     9.71    -7.49    70.41    10.59    12.67     4.90    19.83    49.59    29.53P    0.69R    0.21  
Torquay               9    9   -4      -2.90    24.95    -3.32    57.58     9.82    -7.19     0.22     1.70     9.52     3.50P    7.71R    3.07  
Cheltenham            9    9   -7      -2.92    24.56    -6.29    57.74     9.79   -10.12     0.22     1.61     9.58     3.42P    7.66R    2.69  
Bury                  9    8   +0      -5.30    10.95    -1.42    66.17    10.72    11.26     2.37    11.51    34.80    18.59P    1.95R    0.63  
York                  9    8   -4      -2.59    27.16    -1.51    49.64     9.43   -17.20     0.03     0.19     1.80     0.51P   26.85R   13.04  
Hartlepool            9    6   -7      -6.54     5.60    -7.40    56.01    10.23    -7.52     0.21     1.43     8.03     3.24P   11.20R    4.62  
Northampton           9    5   -7      -6.77     4.54    -6.23    50.63     9.78   -14.75     0.02     0.29     2.62     0.82P   23.76R   11.23  
Accrington_Stanley    9    2  -11      -7.26     2.05    -6.35    41.82     9.40   -27.49     0.00     0.01     0.21     0.03P   60.00R   41.51  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 28 September 2013, Barnet 3 1 Salisbury; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd    12   28  +15       8.69    97.06    10.57    82.86     9.01    27.91    30.64    79.21    41.74P    0.00R    0.00  
Nuneaton         12   23   +3       8.14    95.60     5.40    68.29     8.90     1.25     1.72    19.82     4.33P    0.63R    0.03  
Kidderminster    12   22   +4       0.93    57.19    -3.41    78.63     9.04    19.67    15.83    63.29    28.93P    0.03R    0.00  
Grimsby          12   21   +4       0.34    52.59    -2.31    75.96     8.85    17.06     9.33    51.83    20.74P    0.06R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   12   21   +4       5.24    86.52     4.95    67.49     8.99     3.59     1.57    18.00     4.28P    0.83R    0.04  
Luton            12   20   +9       0.41    53.30     4.33    78.35     8.84    27.17    14.82    63.64    28.67P    0.02R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     12   20   +5       3.43    77.01     4.79    67.61     9.01     6.87     1.58    19.01     4.80P    0.72R    0.02  
Salisbury        12   20   +3       4.80    84.45     4.98    61.15     9.57    -5.36     0.52     7.16     1.60P    5.03R    0.32  
Halifax          12   20   +1       5.53    86.94     4.57    60.78     9.79    -9.37     0.44     6.72     1.29P    6.24R    0.49  
Barnet           12   19   +6      -3.01    25.90    -3.04    77.17     9.49    24.57    14.35    57.52    27.39P    0.06R    0.00  
Alfreton_Town    12   19   +1       4.09    80.39     3.69    63.89     9.09    -2.64     0.61    10.04     2.00P    2.39R    0.10  
Forest_Green     12   18   +7      -1.58    37.07     2.00    69.59     9.05    14.85     2.73    26.24     8.31P    0.48R    0.03  
Welling          12   18   +4       3.23    74.42     6.79    63.22     9.78     1.21     0.79    10.93     2.58P    3.57R    0.24  
Hereford         12   16   +0      -2.66    29.44    -3.31    65.98     8.93     5.48     1.03    14.44     4.07P    1.24R    0.06  
Southport        12   16   -4       1.55    63.39    -0.85    57.25     8.81   -13.62     0.10     2.32     0.41P    9.65R    0.77  
Gateshead        12   13   -6      -1.63    37.32    -3.12    56.71     8.95   -10.57     0.05     2.11     0.43P   10.40R    0.90  
Dartford         12   13   -8      -1.49    38.49    -4.90    53.63     8.82   -17.51     0.03     0.92     0.20P   18.28R    1.88  
Macclesfield     12   12   -3      -4.54    16.61    -3.14    57.44     8.94    -4.71     0.11     2.52     0.59P    8.79R    0.80  
Wrexham          12   12   -4      -7.74     4.96    -9.28    66.42     8.99     8.02     1.14    15.79     5.07P    1.19R    0.05  
Tamworth         12   12   -7      -0.68    45.37    -1.16    50.49     8.64   -19.65     0.01     0.34     0.06P   28.85R    3.79  
Woking           12   11   -7      -3.50    23.62    -3.38    48.77     8.83   -23.06     0.00     0.24     0.04P   37.31R    5.30  
Aldershot        12    8   +5      -2.72    28.21    -1.44    69.60     9.10    27.59     2.61    27.90    12.49P    0.54R    0.02  
Chester          12    8  -11      -3.12    25.48    -2.05    40.60     9.01   -33.72     0.00     0.02     0.00    73.28R   26.08  
Hyde_United      12    2  -21      -8.70     1.12   -10.71    34.63     8.44   -45.04     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.40R   59.08  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10