Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 27 September 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 22 September 2013, Arsenal 3 1 Stoke; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal           5   12   +5       2.22    75.32     0.58    72.95     8.97    29.81    20.09    38.46    55.29    70.40    90.34     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham         5   12   +4       3.06    84.32     1.00    66.83     8.90    18.19     6.20    15.48    27.73    42.32    73.49     0.02R    0.00  
Man_City          5   10   +8      -0.40    42.72     2.47    75.13     8.63    38.68    27.83    49.65    66.52    79.48    94.39     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea           5   10   +4       0.76    60.29     0.36    71.69     8.77    28.61    15.29    32.23    49.47    65.52    88.73     0.01R    0.00  
Liverpool         5   10   +2       1.47    68.31    -0.35    66.01     8.86    17.95     4.97    13.18    24.58    38.62    71.06     0.04R    0.00  
Everton           5    9   +2       1.04    62.83     0.36    60.73     8.76    11.49     1.46     4.64    10.34    18.76    46.75     0.18R    0.01  
Southampton       5    8   +1       1.64    72.14     1.67    47.65     8.66    -7.44     0.05     0.16     0.51     1.25     6.00     7.45R    1.17  
Man_Utd           5    7   +1      -1.78    27.56    -2.37    74.27     8.63    35.89    23.93    45.30    62.97    76.80    93.23     0.00     0.00  
Swansea           5    7   +0       1.32    68.76     1.63    49.98     8.71    -3.30     0.06     0.33     0.88     2.12     9.36     4.49R    0.60  
Stoke             5    7   -1       1.72    74.77     1.09    46.83     8.39    -7.36     0.00     0.07     0.28     0.79     4.42     7.97R    1.15  
Hull              5    7   -2       2.59    84.12     1.93    37.55     8.29   -23.05     0.00     0.01     0.02     0.06     0.48    40.46R   11.97  
Newcastle         5    7   -3       0.61    59.31    -2.00    44.70     8.73   -15.32     0.02     0.09     0.24     0.66     3.46    14.09R    2.76  
Aston_Villa       5    6   +0       0.93    63.85     2.89    46.15     8.79    -7.90     0.03     0.12     0.33     0.86     4.56    10.44R    1.92  
West_Brom         5    5   +0      -1.99    26.64    -0.24    46.58     8.75    -5.85     0.03     0.14     0.39     1.01     5.01     9.40R    1.59  
West_Ham          5    5   +0      -1.74    29.42     0.05    44.17     8.58    -9.01     0.01     0.05     0.15     0.44     2.70    14.46R    2.81  
Cardiff           5    5   -2       0.07    53.84     0.65    39.89     8.74   -17.67     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.18     1.16    30.18R    8.15  
Norwich           5    4   -3      -1.94    26.64    -1.72    39.64     8.46   -18.04     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.09     0.85    30.54R    7.97  
Fulham            5    4   -4      -1.67    29.87    -2.22    45.27     8.69    -9.91     0.01     0.08     0.21     0.59     3.60    12.23R    2.31  
Crystal_Palace    5    3   -4      -1.09    35.77     0.65    29.92     8.17   -33.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05    74.86R   44.35  
Sunderland        5    1   -8      -4.74     4.03    -6.44    36.77     8.34   -22.13     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.36    43.18R   13.24  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Friday 27 September 2013, Huddersfield 1 1 Blackpool; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

QPR              8   20   +6       6.41    95.50     2.26    81.95    10.37    20.56    20.07    35.32    75.00    45.84P    0.01R    0.00  
Blackpool        9   18   +4       4.14    83.41     1.63    73.41    10.11    11.10     4.73    11.33    44.18    18.42P    0.19R    0.01  
Burnley          8   17   +8       4.35    86.69     5.41    75.11    10.26    17.19     7.22    15.69    51.36    23.77P    0.13R    0.01  
Leicester        8   17   +5       4.09    84.69     2.13    81.06    10.15    23.26    17.54    32.54    73.16    43.45P    0.03R    0.00  
Watford          8   15  +10       0.90    58.23     4.89    79.52    10.49    29.70    15.42    28.94    68.80    39.83P    0.04R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest    8   15   +5       3.05    78.08     3.59    70.79    10.19    10.76     3.09     7.69    34.86    13.48P    0.42R    0.03  
Reading          8   15   +4       1.65    65.38     0.46    79.22    10.73    22.63    14.52    27.81    66.50    38.78P    0.09R    0.01  
Huddersfield     9   13   +4       0.92    59.24     4.25    58.64     9.72    -3.50     0.18     0.54     5.69     1.45P    6.17R    0.74  
Bournemouth      8   13   -6       4.65    88.29    -1.35    51.50    10.14   -29.03     0.04     0.12     1.65     0.34P   23.93R    5.03  
Brighton         8   12   +3      -0.06    49.85     1.29    73.06    10.00    16.32     4.27    10.58    43.73    19.72P    0.22R    0.01  
Wigan            7   11   +4      -1.76    31.53    -0.92    75.99    11.18    21.99     9.89    19.98    55.44    30.49P    0.26R    0.03  
Derby            8   11   +2       0.19    52.99     2.24    64.62    10.26     4.18     0.86     2.47    16.71     5.46P    2.19R    0.22  
Leeds_United     8   11   +0       1.25    63.83     1.73    63.08    10.24     0.09     0.51     1.55    12.98     3.81P    3.01R    0.32  
Ipswich          8   10   +1      -0.16    49.17     2.23    58.60    10.20    -4.14     0.20     0.62     6.33     1.67P    7.30R    1.07  
Blackburn        8    9   +2      -2.77    24.21     0.77    63.82    10.25     6.18     0.70     2.08    15.08     5.21P    2.63R    0.24  
Middlesbrough    8    8   -2      -2.27    28.96    -0.87    57.42    10.25    -6.38     0.13     0.48     5.22     1.35P    9.05R    1.38  
Millwall         8    8   -6      -2.07    30.55    -4.80    52.34     9.76   -17.41     0.03     0.11     1.43     0.32P   19.65R    3.52  
Birmingham       8    7   -3      -3.80    16.47    -2.78    61.06    10.36    -0.05     0.28     1.09     9.77     3.06P    4.96R    0.59  
Doncaster        7    6   -2      -1.60    33.85     1.21    49.62    10.53   -16.66     0.02     0.11     1.35     0.32P   29.90R    7.37  
Charlton         7    5   -3      -4.75     9.56    -3.14    56.89    10.32    -5.12     0.13     0.44     4.85     1.43P    9.98R    1.59  
Sheff_Wed        7    4   -5      -4.35    10.38    -3.17    49.11    10.19   -17.95     0.04     0.08     0.97     0.27P   30.36R    7.24  
Yeovil           8    4   -8      -2.86    22.18    -1.66    37.36     9.48   -38.50     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   76.61R   43.27  
Barnsley         8    4  -13      -3.51    17.18    -7.06    41.51     9.58   -37.54     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   61.93R   25.45  
Bolton           8    3  -10      -6.85     2.84    -8.33    56.83    10.43    -7.68     0.12     0.43     4.83     1.51P   10.93R    1.89  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 23 September 2013, Brentford 0 2 Leyton_Orient; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient    8   24  +18       9.58    99.63    12.63    84.84    10.49    31.20    13.48    32.48    84.51    44.19P    0.02R    0.00  
Peterborough     8   19  +11       3.44    80.24     3.33    93.20    10.74    48.46    41.67    66.73    95.58    75.95P    0.00R    0.00  
Wolverhampton    8   19   +9       3.83    83.27     2.40    91.68    10.65    41.59    33.89    60.43    94.65    71.61P    0.00R    0.00  
Preston          8   16   +8       4.22    85.39     6.80    75.60    10.45    19.23     2.67     9.13    56.08    19.70P    0.31R    0.01  
Rotherham        8   16   +5       5.99    92.66     6.71    61.01    10.84    -8.36     0.18     0.76    11.48     2.28P    9.19R    1.24  
Bradford         8   15  +10       4.34    85.49    10.55    59.60    10.69    -2.76     0.12     0.54     9.54     1.99P   10.26R    1.29  
Walsall          8   14   +3       2.40    73.13     2.10    68.14    10.37     5.69     0.53     2.31    27.74     7.31P    1.77R    0.15  
MK_Dons          8   13   +3       0.39    53.74     0.50    77.34    10.22    21.46     3.35    11.55    63.22    25.85P    0.14R    0.00  
Crawley_Town     8   12   +2       1.57    65.99     3.34    62.61    10.49    -1.14     0.13     0.68    13.86     3.01P    6.16R    0.62  
Brentford        8   12   -2      -0.31    46.97    -4.00    66.09    10.29     0.59     0.37     1.48    21.34     5.71P    2.89R    0.22  
Swindon          8   11   +3      -2.15    28.93    -0.37    77.02    10.37    24.25     3.06    11.11    62.25    26.83P    0.18R    0.01  
Colchester       8   10   -1      -0.05    50.24     0.51    54.05    10.07   -14.15     0.02     0.07     2.92     0.53P   22.53R    3.78  
Port_Vale        8   10   -3       0.86    59.77     0.24    53.67    10.83   -18.49     0.02     0.12     3.63     0.65P   25.78R    5.45  
Shrewsbury       8    8   -2      -0.78    43.74     1.36    57.23    10.06    -6.63     0.01     0.12     4.92     0.94P   14.14R    2.09  
Carlisle         8    8  -10      -0.60    46.02    -5.98    47.17     9.94   -33.59     0.00     0.00     0.60     0.09P   48.84R   14.44  
Oldham           8    7   -2      -2.75    24.45     0.20    50.89    10.04   -15.39     0.01     0.03     1.49     0.29P   32.39R    7.16  
Crewe            8    6  -10      -1.72    33.51    -4.20    46.79    10.02   -29.91     0.00     0.01     0.53     0.08P   49.50R   15.15  
Stevenage        8    5   -7      -4.47    12.05    -4.70    48.68    10.07   -20.57     0.00     0.01     0.80     0.14P   40.96R   10.66  
Tranmere         8    5  -10      -5.09     9.45    -8.52    51.61    10.15   -19.19     0.00     0.04     1.79     0.36P   30.27R    6.62  
Coventry         8    4   +6       0.29    52.35     1.66    63.08    10.81    16.49     0.25     1.08    16.74     5.26P    5.73R    0.67  
Bristol_City     8    4   -6      -6.43     4.91    -4.72    61.52    11.53     1.95     0.17     0.88    14.17     4.05P    9.52R    1.63  
Sheff_Utd        8    4   -8      -8.07     1.69    -9.66    59.34    10.30    -3.38     0.05     0.32     7.87     2.23P   10.19R    1.31  
Notts_County     8    4   -9      -6.02     5.35    -7.32    55.15    10.48   -11.34     0.02     0.12     3.94     0.85P   19.97R    3.62  
Gillingham       8    3   -8      -4.95     8.06    -2.88    43.93    10.31   -26.02     0.00     0.00     0.37     0.07P   59.25R   23.89  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Friday 27 September 2013, Southend 1 1 Bristol_Rovers; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield          8   22  +11       8.52    99.14     7.21    88.84     9.89    32.68    53.74    82.12    95.94    86.46P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town        8   18   +7       6.51    95.30     6.21    72.60    10.18    10.80     5.68    23.53    56.01    30.41P    0.27R    0.07  
AFC_Wimbledon         8   16   +4       6.45    95.02     6.21    63.47    10.16    -3.53     0.85     5.68    22.66     8.71P    2.32R    0.67  
Oxford_Utd            8   15   +7       3.68    82.14     6.48    74.20    10.19    17.73     6.84    29.25    63.27    37.60P    0.14R    0.03  
Mansfield             8   15   +6       4.42    86.53     6.62    64.01    10.76     1.25     1.26     7.41    26.27    11.18P    2.55R    0.83  
Wycombe               8   14   +4       2.37    72.98     2.96    67.85    10.09     6.75     2.11    11.86    37.94    17.97P    0.74R    0.20  
Rochdale              8   14   +4       2.23    71.30     2.82    71.72    10.20    12.49     4.45    21.45    53.46    29.46P    0.31R    0.08  
Morecambe             8   14   +2       2.99    78.12     2.03    65.90    10.25     1.69     1.51     9.00    30.79    13.73P    1.36R    0.43  
Exeter                8   14   +1       1.43    64.30    -1.41    67.28    10.08     2.85     1.91    10.79    35.45    16.52P    0.88R    0.23  
Scunthorpe            8   13   +3      -0.87    40.91    -1.36    74.52    10.65    17.13     8.48    31.52    63.39    41.51P    0.17R    0.05  
Newport_County        8   12   +3       3.08    79.03     6.37    51.26    10.21   -17.96     0.05     0.60     3.59     1.06P   21.29R    9.70  
Southend              9   11   -1      -2.05    31.18    -2.10    66.48     9.85     6.24     1.34     9.08    33.00    15.59P    0.94R    0.28  
Burton_Albion         8   11   -2       0.86    59.40    -0.61    61.29    10.18    -5.45     0.52     3.80    17.17     6.52P    3.88R    1.29  
Dag_&_Red             8   10   -1      -0.45    45.88    -0.21    57.17    10.01    -8.34     0.18     1.51     9.17     3.06P    7.99R    2.97  
Portsmouth            8    9   -2      -4.38    14.26    -5.62    73.56    10.89    17.36     7.27    29.04    60.47    39.45P    0.34R    0.11  
Torquay               8    9   -3      -1.59    34.99    -2.44    59.74    10.03    -4.99     0.35     2.82    13.51     5.23P    4.91R    1.72  
Bristol_Rovers        9    9   -3      -2.53    27.73    -1.84    55.05     9.84   -10.37     0.09     0.90     6.09     1.96P   10.78R    4.30  
Plymouth              8    9   -4      -0.41    47.08    -1.99    55.74     9.67   -10.88     0.08     0.82     6.23     1.90P    9.46R    3.67  
Bury                  8    8   +1      -3.96    16.28    -0.52    67.78    11.02    12.66     2.80    14.24    39.91    21.83P    1.32R    0.42  
Hartlepool            8    6   -5      -5.47     7.81    -5.84    58.95    10.48    -3.14     0.37     2.85    13.19     5.71P    6.13R    2.26  
Cheltenham            8    6   -8      -4.07    14.64    -6.54    56.34    10.25   -10.83     0.09     1.28     8.33     2.92P    9.81R    3.79  
York                  8    5   -6      -4.24    12.74    -3.64    46.41     9.49   -21.25     0.00     0.06     0.86     0.20P   36.84R   19.46  
Northampton           8    4   -7      -6.38     4.30    -6.19    51.06    10.04   -14.80     0.03     0.37     3.02     0.95P   20.91R    9.61  
Accrington_Stanley    8    1  -11      -7.15     1.35    -6.59    41.91     9.62   -28.09     0.00     0.02     0.29     0.06P   56.65R   37.85  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Friday 27 September 2013, Kidderminster 0 0 Aldershot; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd    11   27  +15       8.85    97.78    10.35    82.80     9.20    27.20    30.03    78.02    40.65P    0.00R    0.00  
Nuneaton         11   23   +5       9.21    97.89     6.89    70.18     9.25     3.97     2.85    26.61     6.50P    0.44R    0.02  
Kidderminster    12   22   +4       0.88    56.92    -3.42    78.78     9.08    19.82    15.99    62.97    28.84P    0.02R    0.00  
Salisbury        11   20   +5       5.24    86.98     5.46    62.52    10.05    -3.29     0.86     9.92     2.43P    4.12R    0.29  
Luton            11   19   +9       0.64    55.19     4.10    78.72     9.15    27.21    16.23    63.97    30.00P    0.02R    0.00  
Alfreton_Town    11   19   +3       4.89    85.26     4.74    65.37     9.49    -0.36     1.17    13.81     3.17P    1.69R    0.12  
Welling          11   18   +5       4.13    80.48     7.01    64.64    10.27     2.43     1.49    14.40     3.91P    2.95R    0.22  
Grimsby          11   18   +2      -0.32    47.01    -2.84    74.78     9.21    15.67     7.95    46.02    18.21P    0.11R    0.01  
Braintree_Town   11   18   +2       4.20    82.49     3.82    65.58     9.29     1.18     1.11    13.82     3.21P    1.42R    0.10  
Lincoln_City     11   17   +2       2.89    74.18     3.44    65.68     9.25     3.34     1.08    14.11     3.41P    1.31R    0.10  
Halifax          11   17   +0       4.53    83.38     4.51    60.00    10.19    -8.97     0.47     6.56     1.43P    7.56R    0.89  
Barnet           11   16   +4      -3.69    20.73    -3.42    75.88     9.79    22.92    11.80    51.94    24.05P    0.12R    0.01  
Southport        11   16   -3       2.52    70.99    -0.38    58.40     9.16   -13.09     0.15     3.38     0.62P    7.95R    0.78  
Forest_Green     11   15   +6      -2.60    28.53     1.96    68.62     9.38    14.69     2.44    23.41     7.52P    0.68R    0.02  
Hereford         11   15   +0      -2.21    31.91    -3.20    66.63     9.23     5.89     1.50    16.64     5.11P    1.02R    0.04  
Gateshead        11   13   -5      -0.76    44.30    -2.86    56.97     9.20   -11.37     0.08     2.60     0.51P    9.62R    1.04  
Tamworth         11   12   -5      -0.21    49.39    -0.63    51.43     8.82   -18.03     0.01     0.48     0.07P   23.97R    3.64  
Wrexham          11   11   -4      -7.20     5.43    -9.02    67.56     9.34     9.16     1.95    19.88     7.22P    0.83R    0.02  
Dartford         11   10   -9      -2.79    27.17    -5.37    52.22     9.18   -18.26     0.02     0.73     0.11P   22.33R    3.43  
Macclesfield     11    9   -4      -5.67     9.90    -3.39    55.63     9.24    -5.93     0.05     1.91     0.39P   12.22R    1.40  
Aldershot        12    8   +5      -2.83    27.64    -1.62    69.97     9.08    27.96     2.76    28.59    12.63P    0.43R    0.02  
Woking           11    8   -9      -4.72    14.95    -4.70    46.32     9.16   -26.50     0.01     0.15     0.02P   46.50R   10.39  
Chester          11    8  -10      -2.33    31.14    -2.02    41.07     9.31   -34.19     0.00     0.06     0.01P   69.40R   26.79  
Hyde_United      11    2  -18      -8.24     1.43    -9.40    36.19     8.74   -41.45     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.32R   50.67  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10