Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 26 September 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 22 September 2013, Arsenal 3 1 Stoke; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal           5   12   +5       2.14    74.38     0.48    73.04     8.90    29.97    19.98    38.70    55.95    70.70    90.54     0.00R    0.00  
Tottenham         5   12   +4       3.07    84.26     0.98    66.91     8.89    18.32     6.03    15.38    27.66    42.78    74.18     0.03R    0.00  
Man_City          5   10   +8      -0.42    42.70     2.45    75.17     8.69    38.63    28.18    49.74    66.65    79.17    94.28     0.00R    0.00  
Chelsea           5   10   +4       0.73    59.68     0.31    71.67     8.83    28.64    15.26    32.33    49.50    65.42    88.33     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool         5   10   +2       1.47    68.23    -0.38    66.12     8.86    18.12     5.23    13.51    24.90    39.23    71.21     0.05R    0.00  
Everton           5    9   +2       1.02    62.83     0.36    60.62     8.78    11.34     1.44     4.55     9.83    18.32    46.60     0.21R    0.01  
Southampton       5    8   +1       1.64    72.01     1.65    47.82     8.67    -7.14     0.04     0.18     0.49     1.33     6.31     7.18R    1.01  
Man_Utd           5    7   +1      -1.77    27.62    -2.32    74.21     8.67    35.78    23.69    44.84    62.60    76.43    93.18     0.00     0.00  
Swansea           5    7   +0       1.34    68.81     1.66    49.74     8.68    -3.60     0.07     0.25     0.79     1.99     8.87     4.68R    0.64  
Stoke             5    7   -1       1.77    75.53     1.18    46.66     8.34    -7.65     0.00     0.06     0.23     0.68     4.22     8.38R    1.12  
Hull              5    7   -2       2.61    84.16     1.94    37.57     8.36   -23.03     0.00     0.01     0.01     0.05     0.51    40.18R   12.16  
Newcastle         5    7   -3       0.61    59.11    -2.00    44.86     8.70   -15.05     0.00     0.06     0.21     0.62     3.46    13.90R    2.64  
Aston_Villa       5    6   +0       0.93    63.78     2.92    46.23     8.80    -7.82     0.02     0.12     0.32     0.88     4.58    10.44R    1.79  
West_Brom         5    5   +0      -1.98    26.33    -0.23    46.52     8.79    -5.95     0.02     0.11     0.39     1.01     5.03     9.63R    1.71  
West_Ham          5    5   +0      -1.77    29.04     0.01    44.36     8.61    -8.73     0.01     0.07     0.16     0.49     3.01    13.91R    2.57  
Cardiff           5    5   -2       0.08    54.35     0.69    39.77     8.77   -17.94     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.15     1.05    30.50R    8.27  
Norwich           5    4   -3      -1.95    26.52    -1.69    39.62     8.49   -18.06     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.11     0.84    30.53R    8.09  
Fulham            5    4   -4      -1.65    30.00    -2.19    45.20     8.65    -9.99     0.01     0.07     0.22     0.59     3.39    11.99R    2.14  
Crystal_Palace    5    3   -4      -1.09    35.98     0.65    29.90     8.19   -33.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    75.10R   44.59  
Sunderland        5    1   -8      -4.75     3.98    -6.46    36.79     8.34   -22.07     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.05     0.37    43.29R   13.25  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 22 September 2013, Wigan 2 0 Ipswich; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

QPR              8   20   +6       6.39    95.43     2.22    81.98    10.40    20.59    19.88    35.30    74.68    46.05P    0.01R    0.00  
Burnley          8   17   +8       4.36    86.92     5.41    75.16    10.25    17.21     6.96    15.24    51.51    23.51P    0.12R    0.00  
Leicester        8   17   +5       4.11    84.91     2.15    81.05    10.15    23.21    17.19    32.26    73.09    43.25P    0.03R    0.00  
Blackpool        8   17   +4       4.58    87.55     1.78    73.88    10.31    11.22     5.22    12.25    45.75    19.64P    0.21R    0.02  
Watford          8   15  +10       0.89    57.86     4.91    79.60    10.48    29.87    15.26    29.12    68.78    40.04P    0.05R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest    8   15   +5       3.02    77.82     3.56    70.84    10.18    10.88     2.97     7.54    34.93    13.45P    0.42R    0.03  
Reading          8   15   +4       1.70    65.75     0.51    79.07    10.84    22.41    14.46    27.18    65.72    38.24P    0.09R    0.01  
Bournemouth      8   13   -6       4.67    88.55    -1.33    51.43    10.08   -29.15     0.04     0.11     1.51     0.31P   24.37R    5.08  
Huddersfield     8   12   +4       1.27    63.32     4.24    58.50    10.00    -4.28     0.16     0.59     5.97     1.49P    6.88R    0.87  
Brighton         8   12   +3      -0.10    49.56     1.24    73.12    10.02    16.45     4.28    10.78    44.03    19.88P    0.25R    0.01  
Wigan            7   11   +4      -1.80    31.17    -0.97    76.16    11.33    22.25    10.56    20.62    55.56    30.82P    0.25R    0.01  
Derby            8   11   +2       0.15    52.44     2.16    64.73    10.29     4.27     0.97     2.60    16.97     5.63P    2.15R    0.20  
Leeds_United     8   11   +0       1.28    63.98     1.76    62.94    10.14    -0.13     0.47     1.44    12.45     3.52P    3.24R    0.39  
Ipswich          8   10   +1      -0.19    48.83     2.21    58.66    10.18    -4.10     0.16     0.55     6.35     1.62P    7.26R    0.97  
Blackburn        8    9   +2      -2.73    24.54     0.85    63.64    10.19     5.91     0.58     1.79    14.62     4.67P    2.62R    0.28  
Middlesbrough    8    8   -2      -2.25    28.93    -0.82    57.34    10.17    -6.48     0.12     0.40     5.06     1.22P    9.08R    1.38  
Millwall         8    8   -6      -1.97    31.39    -4.67    51.89     9.64   -18.06     0.01     0.04     1.25     0.23P   20.54R    3.80  
Birmingham       8    7   -3      -3.77    16.63    -2.75    60.94    10.38    -0.20     0.38     1.14     9.66     3.08P    5.02R    0.54  
Doncaster        7    6   -2      -1.64    33.43     1.14    49.75    10.57   -16.41     0.03     0.10     1.29     0.27P   29.65R    7.56  
Charlton         7    5   -3      -4.79     9.54    -3.20    57.01    10.33    -4.93     0.13     0.41     4.94     1.38P    9.92R    1.54  
Sheff_Wed        7    4   -5      -4.41     9.80    -3.29    49.18    10.17   -17.76     0.02     0.07     0.95     0.23P   30.43R    7.26  
Yeovil           8    4   -8      -2.81    22.76    -1.55    37.36     9.69   -38.63     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   76.46R   44.23  
Barnsley         8    4  -13      -3.55    16.79    -7.21    41.93     9.63   -36.75     0.00     0.01     0.10     0.02P   60.59R   24.16  
Bolton           8    3  -10      -6.86     2.94    -8.36    57.05    10.36    -7.38     0.16     0.47     4.80     1.43P   10.37R    1.65  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 23 September 2013, Brentford 0 2 Leyton_Orient; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient    8   24  +18       9.53    99.60    12.58    85.01    10.45    31.49    13.81    32.65    85.06    44.51P    0.01R    0.00  
Peterborough     8   19  +11       3.39    79.94     3.27    93.20    10.70    48.57    41.14    66.36    95.60    75.62P    0.01R    0.00  
Wolverhampton    8   19   +9       3.79    83.05     2.35    91.79    10.50    41.65    33.65    60.40    94.86    71.87P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          8   16   +8       4.19    85.43     6.78    75.70    10.40    19.28     2.75     9.05    56.50    19.61P    0.31R    0.01  
Rotherham        8   16   +5       6.00    92.68     6.74    60.87    10.97    -8.67     0.19     0.84    11.33     2.37P    9.44R    1.21  
Bradford         8   15  +10       4.33    85.51    10.53    59.80    10.64    -2.40     0.12     0.50     9.69     1.92P    9.84R    1.17  
Walsall          8   14   +3       2.40    73.26     2.11    67.98    10.32     5.43     0.52     2.11    26.99     6.91P    1.79R    0.15  
MK_Dons          8   13   +3       0.38    53.50     0.51    77.34    10.36    21.45     3.42    11.46    62.98    25.75P    0.22R    0.01  
Crawley_Town     8   12   +2       1.58    65.85     3.37    62.77    10.53    -0.97     0.17     0.81    14.15     3.15P    5.88R    0.61  
Brentford        8   12   -2      -0.30    47.24    -4.03    66.34    10.34     0.96     0.35     1.51    22.38     5.99P    2.70R    0.21  
Swindon          8   11   +3      -2.20    28.34    -0.43    77.10    10.39    24.39     3.30    11.50    62.01    26.73P    0.19R    0.01  
Colchester       8   10   -1       0.01    51.12     0.59    53.97     9.90   -14.24     0.01     0.08     2.57     0.45P   22.00R    3.68  
Port_Vale        8   10   -3       0.81    59.46     0.14    53.91    10.96   -18.03     0.02     0.13     3.87     0.75P   25.13R    5.38  
Shrewsbury       8    8   -2      -0.70    44.58     1.46    56.92    10.10    -7.06     0.03     0.14     4.67     0.88P   14.71R    2.16  
Carlisle         8    8  -10      -0.58    46.26    -5.93    47.09     9.98   -33.72     0.00     0.01     0.61     0.08P   48.89R   14.80  
Oldham           8    7   -2      -2.76    23.97     0.20    50.77    10.02   -15.55     0.01     0.03     1.39     0.25P   32.61R    7.11  
Crewe            8    6  -10      -1.67    33.95    -4.14    46.56    10.06   -30.36     0.00     0.01     0.53     0.07P   50.56R   15.84  
Stevenage        8    5   -7      -4.48    11.90    -4.70    48.59     9.94   -20.65     0.00     0.01     0.73     0.14P   41.24R   10.55  
Tranmere         8    5  -10      -5.09     9.50    -8.50    51.67    10.15   -19.15     0.00     0.03     1.72     0.37P   30.24R    6.38  
Coventry         8    4   +6       0.28    52.24     1.63    63.11    10.77    16.66     0.25     1.10    16.59     5.31P    5.63R    0.62  
Bristol_City     8    4   -6      -6.37     5.04    -4.67    61.31    11.50     1.59     0.18     0.88    13.75     4.03P    9.68R    1.46  
Sheff_Utd        8    4   -8      -8.10     1.73    -9.69    59.35    10.30    -3.33     0.06     0.32     7.80     2.28P    9.90R    1.40  
Notts_County     8    4   -9      -5.96     5.61    -7.25    55.06    10.52   -11.48     0.01     0.10     3.86     0.89P   20.18R    3.78  
Gillingham       8    3   -8      -4.96     8.02    -2.91    44.03    10.38   -25.87     0.00     0.00     0.34     0.06P   58.83R   23.47  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 21 September 2013, AFC_Wimbledon 3 1 Burton_Albion; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield          8   22  +11       8.58    99.08     7.28    88.83     9.87    32.65    53.24    82.00    96.14    86.22P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town        8   18   +7       6.62    95.51     6.34    72.50    10.17    10.68     5.25    22.99    55.24    29.75P    0.20R    0.05  
AFC_Wimbledon         8   16   +4       6.44    94.88     6.16    63.42    10.14    -3.56     0.77     5.59    22.39     8.47P    2.34R    0.76  
Oxford_Utd            8   15   +7       3.68    82.12     6.51    74.24    10.17    17.77     7.02    29.09    62.78    37.54P    0.13R    0.03  
Mansfield             8   15   +6       4.50    86.94     6.70    63.72    10.65     0.82     1.15     6.87    24.91    10.34P    2.57R    0.91  
Wycombe               8   14   +4       2.34    72.78     2.94    68.09    10.14     7.07     2.30    12.38    38.46    18.43P    0.71R    0.19  
Rochdale              8   14   +4       2.27    71.76     2.87    71.58    10.33    12.29     4.56    21.07    52.31    28.69P    0.35R    0.07  
Morecambe             8   14   +2       2.98    77.84     2.03    65.97    10.19     1.85     1.54     8.85    30.55    13.55P    1.29R    0.39  
Exeter                8   14   +1       1.45    64.46    -1.37    66.94    10.20     2.36     1.88    10.37    34.01    15.95P    1.03R    0.30  
Scunthorpe            8   13   +3      -0.84    41.15    -1.28    74.39    10.62    16.88     8.21    30.54    62.87    40.52P    0.19R    0.05  
Newport_County        8   12   +3       3.12    79.57     6.44    51.00    10.25   -18.39     0.07     0.56     3.34     1.00P   21.93R   10.28  
Burton_Albion         8   11   -2       0.83    59.25    -0.61    61.29    10.16    -5.43     0.56     3.55    16.97     6.29P    3.89R    1.32  
Dag_&_Red             8   10   -1      -0.50    45.51    -0.28    56.87     9.97    -8.79     0.15     1.43     8.44     2.79P    8.14R    3.05  
Southend              8   10   -1      -1.34    36.77    -1.61    67.97    10.14     7.87     2.06    11.99    38.43    19.23P    0.84R    0.24  
Portsmouth            8    9   -2      -4.41    13.99    -5.68    73.78    10.72    17.66     7.37    28.92    60.97    39.79P    0.31R    0.09  
Torquay               8    9   -3      -1.59    35.10    -2.44    59.81    10.04    -4.87     0.28     2.68    13.74     5.07P    4.76R    1.71  
Plymouth              8    9   -4      -0.41    47.07    -1.99    55.89     9.66   -10.64     0.08     0.91     6.34     2.05P    9.24R    3.46  
Bury                  8    8   +1      -4.00    16.17    -0.58    68.11    10.98    13.16     2.85    14.67    40.80    22.45P    1.32R    0.42  
Bristol_Rovers        8    8   -3      -2.61    25.78    -2.51    54.81     9.98   -11.36     0.12     0.96     6.01     2.00P   11.42R    4.64  
Hartlepool            8    6   -5      -5.49     7.63    -5.89    59.05    10.44    -3.00     0.38     2.72    13.21     5.69P    5.91R    2.18  
Cheltenham            8    6   -8      -4.12    14.35    -6.62    56.55    10.14   -10.52     0.13     1.44     8.22     3.01P    9.27R    3.52  
York                  8    5   -6      -4.22    12.67    -3.60    46.22     9.39   -21.58     0.00     0.05     0.77     0.17P   37.36R   19.61  
Northampton           8    4   -7      -6.42     4.08    -6.23    51.07     9.93   -14.81     0.03     0.37     2.84     0.93P   20.40R    9.35  
Accrington_Stanley    8    1  -11      -7.14     1.29    -6.56    41.94     9.60   -28.12     0.00     0.01     0.27     0.06P   56.42R   37.38  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 24 September 2013, Barnet 1 2 Macclesfield; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd    11   27  +15       8.73    97.64    10.14    83.42     9.33    28.19    31.24    79.03    42.23P    0.00R    0.00  
Nuneaton         11   23   +5       9.19    97.84     6.88    70.40     9.29     4.24     2.85    27.04     6.57P    0.36R    0.02  
Kidderminster    11   21   +4       1.27    60.51    -3.48    79.65     9.33    20.67    17.66    65.81    30.80P    0.00R    0.00  
Salisbury        11   20   +5       5.22    86.95     5.45    62.39    10.00    -3.57     0.77     9.42     2.33P    4.09R    0.27  
Luton            11   19   +9       0.67    55.56     4.15    78.91     9.12    27.49    15.71    64.45    29.62P    0.01R    0.00  
Alfreton_Town    11   19   +3       4.81    84.94     4.62    65.70     9.45     0.17     1.17    14.22     3.17P    1.60R    0.10  
Welling          11   18   +5       4.10    80.23     6.98    64.64    10.19     2.41     1.32    13.99     3.55P    2.83R    0.19  
Grimsby          11   18   +2      -0.36    46.63    -2.96    74.78     9.18    15.71     7.39    45.40    17.60P    0.09R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   11   18   +2       4.25    82.65     3.93    65.35     9.33     0.80     1.03    13.16     2.98P    1.53R    0.10  
Lincoln_City     11   17   +2       2.79    73.31     3.33    65.90     9.23     3.70     1.04    14.30     3.47P    1.25R    0.08  
Halifax          11   17   +0       4.54    83.83     4.58    59.87    10.15    -9.21     0.45     6.19     1.31P    7.44R    0.81  
Barnet           11   16   +4      -3.66    21.18    -3.39    75.81     9.74    22.79    10.88    51.30    23.19P    0.15R    0.01  
Southport        11   16   -3       2.49    70.99    -0.45    58.48     9.15   -12.97     0.13     3.39     0.58P    7.56R    0.64  
Forest_Green     11   15   +6      -2.58    28.74     1.97    68.46     9.42    14.50     2.26    22.51     7.19P    0.66R    0.05  
Hereford         11   15   +0      -2.19    32.03    -3.17    66.41     9.31     5.54     1.36    16.11     4.77P    1.16R    0.05  
Gateshead        11   13   -5      -0.84    43.61    -2.94    57.38     9.25   -10.84     0.10     2.80     0.58P    8.95R    0.91  
Tamworth         11   12   -5      -0.14    50.25    -0.52    51.32     8.91   -18.32     0.01     0.52     0.09P   24.27R    3.46  
Wrexham          11   11   -4      -7.17     5.42    -8.98    67.44     9.31     9.03     1.69    19.08     6.65P    0.85R    0.03  
Dartford         11   10   -9      -2.76    27.48    -5.31    52.22     9.21   -18.37     0.01     0.73     0.12P   22.05R    3.12  
Macclesfield     11    9   -4      -5.76     9.67    -3.55    55.92     9.26    -5.57     0.05     1.85     0.42P   11.37R    1.37  
Woking           11    8   -9      -4.56    15.84    -4.37    45.80     9.15   -27.56     0.00     0.11     0.02P   48.44R   10.98  
Chester          11    8  -10      -2.25    31.59    -1.92    40.86     9.20   -34.54     0.00     0.03     0.01P   69.72R   27.15  
Aldershot        11    7   +5      -2.54    28.55    -1.70    69.87     9.32    27.50     2.89    28.54    12.75P    0.47R    0.04  
Hyde_United      11    2  -18      -8.22     1.42    -9.29    36.04     8.73   -41.78     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.14R   50.61  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10