Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 25 September 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 22 September 2013, Arsenal 3 1 Stoke; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal           5   12   +5       2.16    74.71     0.49    73.18     8.93    30.15    20.57    39.25    56.38    71.23    90.80     0.01R    0.00  
Tottenham         5   12   +4       3.09    84.58     1.01    66.97     8.98    18.42     6.59    16.03    28.25    42.71    74.03     0.03R    0.00  
Man_City          5   10   +8      -0.43    42.58     2.43    75.15     8.69    38.65    27.88    49.53    66.50    79.33    94.28     0.00R    0.00  
Chelsea           5   10   +4       0.77    60.45     0.38    71.56     8.81    28.38    14.96    31.71    48.60    64.84    88.41     0.00R    0.00  
Liverpool         5   10   +2       1.44    68.02    -0.41    66.20     8.83    18.24     5.32    13.56    25.13    39.71    71.61     0.04R    0.00  
Everton           5    9   +2       1.06    63.26     0.38    60.55     8.76    11.28     1.43     4.55     9.99    18.04    45.86     0.23R    0.02  
Southampton       5    8   +1       1.65    72.00     1.67    47.82     8.69    -7.18     0.04     0.17     0.51     1.26     6.40     7.17R    1.08  
Man_Utd           5    7   +1      -1.77    27.69    -2.35    74.19     8.61    35.76    23.10    44.48    62.30    76.62    93.15     0.00     0.00  
Swansea           5    7   +0       1.36    69.12     1.71    49.75     8.67    -3.60     0.05     0.24     0.70     1.81     9.12     4.72R    0.55  
Stoke             5    7   -1       1.78    75.61     1.20    46.64     8.34    -7.68     0.01     0.08     0.23     0.69     4.31     8.18R    1.12  
Hull              5    7   -2       2.59    83.89     1.95    37.55     8.30   -23.05     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.07     0.47    40.53R   12.03  
Newcastle         5    7   -3       0.59    58.74    -2.02    44.75     8.71   -15.27     0.01     0.05     0.21     0.58     3.34    14.16R    2.81  
Aston_Villa       5    6   +0       0.95    64.08     2.94    46.12     8.69    -8.00     0.02     0.09     0.30     0.78     4.38    10.34R    1.78  
West_Brom         5    5   +0      -2.00    26.25    -0.27    46.60     8.78    -5.76     0.03     0.14     0.42     1.06     5.14     9.65R    1.61  
West_Ham          5    5   +0      -1.73    29.57     0.05    43.90     8.56    -9.38     0.00     0.03     0.13     0.38     2.61    15.13R    3.05  
Cardiff           5    5   -2       0.05    53.80     0.64    39.86     8.77   -17.85     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.14     1.15    30.46R    8.37  
Norwich           5    4   -3      -1.96    26.30    -1.74    39.71     8.43   -17.88     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.09     0.83    29.93R    7.83  
Fulham            5    4   -4      -1.67    29.91    -2.23    45.30     8.69    -9.88     0.00     0.07     0.22     0.61     3.73    12.28R    2.24  
Crystal_Palace    5    3   -4      -1.12    35.62     0.60    30.09     8.18   -33.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06    74.09R   44.02  
Sunderland        5    1   -8      -4.75     3.91    -6.45    36.86     8.42   -22.06     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.32    43.08R   13.48  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 22 September 2013, Wigan 2 0 Ipswich; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

QPR              8   20   +6       6.40    95.45     2.23    81.88    10.35    20.48    19.69    34.78    74.36    45.44P    0.01R    0.00  
Burnley          8   17   +8       4.36    86.85     5.42    75.17    10.26    17.20     7.14    15.55    51.24    23.58P    0.15R    0.01  
Leicester        8   17   +5       4.06    84.60     2.12    81.18    10.15    23.48    17.55    32.82    73.39    43.62P    0.02R    0.00  
Blackpool        8   17   +4       4.54    87.46     1.72    73.97    10.34    11.43     5.49    12.58    45.86    19.70P    0.19R    0.02  
Watford          8   15  +10       0.89    58.14     4.90    79.70    10.35    29.99    15.39    29.35    69.22    40.47P    0.04R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest    8   15   +5       3.03    77.91     3.55    70.86    10.25    10.85     3.17     7.75    35.06    13.68P    0.44R    0.02  
Reading          8   15   +4       1.70    65.82     0.52    79.02    10.71    22.36    13.94    26.62    65.59    37.45P    0.08R    0.01  
Bournemouth      8   13   -6       4.71    88.62    -1.27    51.28    10.13   -29.45     0.02     0.06     1.47     0.23P   24.79R    5.24  
Huddersfield     8   12   +4       1.29    63.63     4.28    58.49     9.96    -4.36     0.15     0.52     5.81     1.47P    6.88R    0.91  
Brighton         8   12   +3      -0.10    49.28     1.24    73.17    10.08    16.48     4.40    10.91    44.21    20.05P    0.21R    0.01  
Wigan            7   11   +4      -1.76    31.51    -0.92    76.20    11.10    22.24    10.23    20.12    55.83    30.61P    0.21R    0.02  
Derby            8   11   +2       0.20    52.91     2.26    64.56    10.35     4.03     0.77     2.36    16.56     5.39P    2.42R    0.23  
Leeds_United     8   11   +0       1.27    64.09     1.74    63.03    10.20     0.00     0.50     1.58    12.65     3.78P    3.27R    0.37  
Ipswich          8   10   +1      -0.19    49.08     2.18    58.71    10.18    -3.98     0.15     0.56     6.32     1.66P    7.19R    0.94  
Blackburn        8    9   +2      -2.68    25.10     0.87    63.57    10.26     5.77     0.61     1.83    14.28     4.73P    2.65R    0.31  
Middlesbrough    8    8   -2      -2.29    28.77    -0.89    57.39    10.13    -6.39     0.11     0.39     4.77     1.25P    8.91R    1.33  
Millwall         8    8   -6      -2.03    30.79    -4.73    52.02     9.74   -17.89     0.02     0.09     1.28     0.28P   20.32R    3.63  
Birmingham       8    7   -3      -3.82    16.21    -2.85    61.32    10.33     0.32     0.34     1.09    10.12     3.16P    4.65R    0.59  
Doncaster        7    6   -2      -1.62    33.77     1.21    49.51    10.55   -16.77     0.03     0.10     1.36     0.37P   29.95R    7.73  
Charlton         7    5   -3      -4.77     9.42    -3.17    57.01    10.33    -4.97     0.14     0.46     4.99     1.51P    9.89R    1.52  
Sheff_Wed        7    4   -5      -4.42     9.91    -3.27    49.27    10.11   -17.71     0.02     0.05     0.94     0.21P   29.87R    6.71  
Yeovil           8    4   -8      -2.79    23.05    -1.51    37.18     9.62   -38.89     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   76.72R   44.81  
Barnsley         8    4  -13      -3.62    16.71    -7.27    41.97     9.54   -36.71     0.00     0.01     0.09     0.02P   60.35R   23.76  
Bolton           8    3  -10      -6.88     2.91    -8.37    56.89    10.37    -7.52     0.13     0.41     4.55     1.32P   10.81R    1.82  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 23 September 2013, Brentford 0 2 Leyton_Orient; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient    8   24  +18       9.53    99.61    12.56    84.91    10.45    31.33    13.52    32.68    84.58    44.72P    0.01R    0.00  
Peterborough     8   19  +11       3.43    80.20     3.32    92.94    10.76    48.03    40.74    65.65    95.26    75.23P    0.01R    0.00  
Wolverhampton    8   19   +9       3.79    83.03     2.37    91.92    10.49    41.87    34.64    61.49    94.97    72.68P    0.00R    0.00  
Preston          8   16   +8       4.20    85.45     6.80    75.70    10.43    19.31     2.68     9.10    56.32    19.59P    0.29R    0.00  
Rotherham        8   16   +5       5.93    92.58     6.59    61.30    10.96    -7.92     0.17     0.77    12.34     2.42P    8.80R    1.07  
Bradford         8   15  +10       4.35    85.77    10.59    59.46    10.66    -2.89     0.11     0.55     9.26     1.88P   10.55R    1.33  
Walsall          8   14   +3       2.40    72.96     2.11    68.22    10.41     5.81     0.53     2.26    28.11     7.26P    1.89R    0.15  
MK_Dons          8   13   +3       0.41    54.13     0.53    77.31    10.31    21.46     3.38    11.44    62.85    25.41P    0.18R    0.01  
Crawley_Town     8   12   +2       1.60    66.43     3.42    62.66    10.50    -1.12     0.14     0.77    14.02     3.13P    6.02R    0.67  
Brentford        8   12   -2      -0.30    47.09    -4.02    66.07    10.29     0.56     0.33     1.40    21.00     5.54P    2.84R    0.22  
Swindon          8   11   +3      -2.22    28.23    -0.45    77.15    10.37    24.45     3.28    11.18    62.86    26.73P    0.20R    0.01  
Colchester       8   10   -1       0.01    51.13     0.57    53.90    10.00   -14.34     0.01     0.06     2.64     0.46P   22.56R    3.96  
Port_Vale        8   10   -3       0.79    59.14     0.15    53.93    10.85   -18.02     0.02     0.15     3.84     0.75P   24.93R    5.10  
Shrewsbury       8    8   -2      -0.73    44.51     1.44    57.03    10.06    -6.92     0.03     0.16     4.71     0.93P   14.39R    2.06  
Carlisle         8    8  -10      -0.62    45.54    -6.00    47.06     9.99   -33.82     0.00     0.01     0.56     0.09P   49.09R   14.99  
Oldham           8    7   -2      -2.76    24.07     0.20    50.98    10.04   -15.30     0.00     0.03     1.50     0.28P   31.97R    6.83  
Crewe            8    6  -10      -1.65    34.16    -4.09    46.53     9.95   -30.36     0.00     0.01     0.49     0.07P   50.67R   15.90  
Stevenage        8    5   -7      -4.54    11.56    -4.80    48.82     9.97   -20.26     0.00     0.01     0.77     0.16P   40.15R   10.34  
Tranmere         8    5  -10      -5.08     9.51    -8.49    51.61    10.09   -19.16     0.00     0.03     1.65     0.31P   30.54R    6.29  
Coventry         8    4   +6       0.28    52.55     1.62    63.22    10.70    16.75     0.20     0.97    16.75     5.34P    5.42R    0.62  
Bristol_City     8    4   -6      -6.40     5.10    -4.68    61.38    11.46     1.70     0.16     0.87    13.80     4.06P    9.43R    1.51  
Sheff_Utd        8    4   -8      -8.03     1.79    -9.60    59.19    10.28    -3.61     0.04     0.30     7.58     2.07P   10.29R    1.39  
Notts_County     8    4   -9      -5.94     5.61    -7.23    54.97    10.45   -11.59     0.01     0.11     3.81     0.85P   20.27R    3.74  
Gillingham       8    3   -8      -4.93     8.27    -2.89    43.90    10.33   -25.99     0.00     0.00     0.32     0.05P   59.49R   23.82  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 21 September 2013, AFC_Wimbledon 3 1 Burton_Albion; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield          8   22  +11       8.57    99.10     7.29    88.78     9.94    32.60    52.86    81.68    95.84    85.97P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town        8   18   +7       6.58    95.55     6.31    72.48    10.18    10.61     5.40    22.77    55.06    29.77P    0.26R    0.06  
AFC_Wimbledon         8   16   +4       6.45    95.09     6.20    63.42    10.18    -3.67     0.84     5.52    22.15     8.40P    2.41R    0.73  
Oxford_Utd            8   15   +7       3.69    82.25     6.51    74.25    10.15    17.84     6.87    28.94    62.88    37.46P    0.14R    0.03  
Mansfield             8   15   +6       4.49    86.92     6.69    63.82    10.61     0.91     1.21     6.85    24.75    10.41P    2.32R    0.81  
Wycombe               8   14   +4       2.37    73.09     2.94    67.86    10.13     6.75     2.18    11.90    37.76    17.89P    0.71R    0.19  
Rochdale              8   14   +4       2.24    71.49     2.82    71.68    10.29    12.45     4.54    21.21    52.61    28.97P    0.27R    0.07  
Morecambe             8   14   +2       3.07    78.89     2.16    65.75    10.20     1.52     1.39     8.40    30.22    12.97P    1.38R    0.39  
Exeter                8   14   +1       1.42    64.25    -1.45    67.19    10.12     2.74     1.92    10.65    34.63    16.43P    0.85R    0.22  
Scunthorpe            8   13   +3      -0.87    40.71    -1.36    74.61    10.72    17.20     8.68    31.37    63.45    41.22P    0.18R    0.05  
Newport_County        8   12   +3       3.08    79.10     6.38    51.08    10.15   -18.18     0.03     0.47     3.25     0.95P   21.64R    9.74  
Burton_Albion         8   11   -2       0.87    59.62    -0.56    61.22    10.23    -5.50     0.48     3.61    17.00     6.34P    3.84R    1.25  
Dag_&_Red             8   10   -1      -0.52    45.59    -0.33    57.26    10.00    -8.24     0.18     1.54     9.05     3.10P    7.54R    2.73  
Southend              8   10   -1      -1.30    37.14    -1.59    67.89    10.19     7.73     2.02    11.90    38.24    18.92P    0.92R    0.28  
Portsmouth            8    9   -2      -4.52    13.51    -5.83    73.94    10.75    17.93     7.51    29.68    61.66    40.49P    0.28R    0.07  
Torquay               8    9   -3      -1.59    35.11    -2.43    59.79    10.05    -4.94     0.30     2.78    13.56     5.11P    4.74R    1.70  
Plymouth              8    9   -4      -0.48    46.17    -2.07    56.09     9.77   -10.38     0.10     0.93     6.62     2.08P    9.17R    3.43  
Bury                  8    8   +1      -4.03    15.88    -0.62    68.16    10.87    13.24     2.87    14.47    40.55    22.09P    1.11R    0.33  
Bristol_Rovers        8    8   -3      -2.50    26.83    -2.36    54.43    10.07   -11.99     0.08     0.83     5.61     1.84P   12.32R    5.23  
Hartlepool            8    6   -5      -5.47     7.98    -5.85    58.90    10.41    -3.23     0.39     2.62    12.82     5.41P    5.91R    2.18  
Cheltenham            8    6   -8      -4.11    14.21    -6.59    56.69    10.13   -10.33     0.11     1.43     8.35     3.00P    8.85R    3.32  
York                  8    5   -6      -4.19    13.18    -3.56    46.15     9.43   -21.73     0.00     0.09     0.74     0.21P   37.58R   19.69  
Northampton           8    4   -7      -6.42     4.21    -6.23    51.04    10.02   -14.82     0.03     0.35     2.94     0.92P   20.51R    9.28  
Accrington_Stanley    8    1  -11      -7.08     1.35    -6.47    41.68     9.58   -28.49     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.04P   57.09R   38.21  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 24 September 2013, Barnet 1 2 Macclesfield; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd    11   27  +15       8.79    97.78    10.24    83.13     9.31    27.72    30.21    78.46    41.03P    0.00R    0.00  
Nuneaton         11   23   +5       9.21    97.75     6.91    70.23     9.21     4.03     2.68    26.26     6.20P    0.34R    0.02  
Kidderminster    11   21   +4       1.27    60.32    -3.43    79.56     9.32    20.56    17.88    65.56    31.05P    0.02R    0.00  
Salisbury        11   20   +5       5.17    86.66     5.37    62.64    10.01    -3.10     0.86    10.04     2.49P    3.86R    0.29  
Luton            11   19   +9       0.65    55.36     4.13    78.76     9.17    27.28    15.61    64.11    29.70P    0.01R    0.00  
Alfreton_Town    11   19   +3       4.83    85.12     4.62    65.52     9.49    -0.15     1.09    14.07     3.15P    1.74R    0.09  
Welling          11   18   +5       4.16    80.68     7.06    64.57    10.11     2.28     1.28    13.76     3.47P    2.77R    0.19  
Grimsby          11   18   +2      -0.31    47.17    -2.83    74.68     9.23    15.52     7.47    45.41    17.48P    0.08R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   11   18   +2       4.22    82.59     3.87    65.51     9.26     1.02     0.95    13.52     3.17P    1.53R    0.08  
Lincoln_City     11   17   +2       2.93    74.68     3.50    65.58     9.22     3.15     0.98    13.69     3.28P    1.40R    0.08  
Halifax          11   17   +0       4.49    83.48     4.49    60.15    10.17    -8.74     0.47     6.66     1.42P    7.23R    0.86  
Barnet           11   16   +4      -3.66    21.03    -3.39    75.91     9.82    22.93    11.75    51.69    24.03P    0.13R    0.00  
Southport        11   16   -3       2.53    71.16    -0.38    58.41     9.16   -13.05     0.15     3.37     0.65P    7.81R    0.70  
Forest_Green     11   15   +6      -2.63    28.25     1.91    68.53     9.43    14.59     2.31    23.06     7.38P    0.66R    0.04  
Hereford         11   15   +0      -2.24    31.81    -3.20    66.51     9.31     5.69     1.38    16.43     4.74P    1.21R    0.06  
Gateshead        11   13   -5      -0.83    43.88    -2.98    57.31     9.21   -10.86     0.11     2.80     0.57P    8.99R    0.92  
Tamworth         11   12   -5      -0.15    50.11    -0.54    51.21     8.87   -18.50     0.01     0.43     0.07P   24.73R    3.85  
Wrexham          11   11   -4      -7.23     5.44    -9.02    67.41     9.31     8.98     1.59    19.11     6.52P    0.95R    0.04  
Dartford         11   10   -9      -2.77    27.19    -5.30    52.25     9.14   -18.29     0.02     0.75     0.13P   22.05R    3.26  
Macclesfield     11    9   -4      -5.75     9.68    -3.48    55.89     9.30    -5.57     0.09     2.16     0.50P   11.48R    1.29  
Woking           11    8   -9      -4.62    15.55    -4.44    45.96     9.10   -27.39     0.01     0.11     0.02P   48.51R   11.06  
Chester          11    8  -10      -2.31    31.25    -2.04    41.30     9.27   -33.89     0.00     0.05     0.01P   68.41R   25.83  
Aldershot        11    7   +5      -2.52    28.77    -1.70    69.85     9.35    27.46     3.08    28.50    12.93P    0.52R    0.03  
Hyde_United      11    2  -18      -8.27     1.40    -9.37    36.07     8.69   -41.69     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.57R   51.32  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10