Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 24 September 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 22 September 2013, Arsenal 3 1 Stoke; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal           5   12   +5       2.18    75.14     0.52    73.07     8.97    29.99    20.36    39.01    56.19    70.73    90.55     0.01R    0.00  
Tottenham         5   12   +4       3.09    84.36     1.02    66.75     8.90    18.06     6.29    15.49    27.28    41.95    73.17     0.03R    0.00  
Man_City          5   10   +8      -0.39    43.06     2.50    75.00     8.63    38.35    27.63    49.29    66.28    79.17    94.28     0.00R    0.00  
Chelsea           5   10   +4       0.73    59.67     0.29    71.75     8.79    28.71    15.75    32.86    49.89    65.93    88.51     0.01R    0.00  
Liverpool         5   10   +2       1.48    68.31    -0.37    66.06     8.85    17.93     5.06    13.47    24.88    39.05    71.03     0.04R    0.00  
Everton           5    9   +2       1.03    62.78     0.38    60.76     8.85    11.56     1.64     4.95    10.41    19.00    47.14     0.17R    0.01  
Southampton       5    8   +1       1.68    72.42     1.72    47.67     8.69    -7.39     0.04     0.17     0.55     1.30     6.21     7.48R    1.19  
Man_Utd           5    7   +1      -1.76    27.68    -2.31    74.02     8.59    35.42    23.07    43.97    61.94    76.26    93.07     0.00R    0.00  
Swansea           5    7   +0       1.32    68.58     1.64    49.77     8.72    -3.52     0.06     0.27     0.81     1.91     9.05     4.80R    0.63  
Stoke             5    7   -1       1.74    75.06     1.13    46.82     8.36    -7.32     0.02     0.06     0.29     0.81     4.40     8.00R    1.10  
Hull              5    7   -2       2.59    83.96     1.95    37.39     8.34   -23.24     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.06     0.53    41.25R   12.59  
Newcastle         5    7   -3       0.60    58.99    -2.03    44.86     8.74   -14.99     0.01     0.08     0.23     0.62     3.40    13.83R    2.67  
Aston_Villa       5    6   +0       0.93    63.78     2.93    46.18     8.83    -7.82     0.02     0.10     0.38     0.88     4.76    10.61R    1.84  
West_Brom         5    5   +0      -1.97    26.78    -0.23    46.63     8.78    -5.76     0.04     0.14     0.40     0.97     5.06     9.54R    1.58  
West_Ham          5    5   +0      -1.76    29.17     0.01    44.21     8.54    -8.96     0.00     0.04     0.14     0.43     2.70    14.28R    2.75  
Cardiff           5    5   -2       0.02    53.30     0.60    39.98     8.78   -17.59     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.17     1.14    29.88R    8.05  
Norwich           5    4   -3      -1.92    26.71    -1.68    39.52     8.51   -18.24     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.09     0.84    31.02R    8.30  
Fulham            5    4   -4      -1.65    30.01    -2.22    45.32     8.69    -9.85     0.02     0.07     0.24     0.65     3.71    12.17R    2.22  
Crystal_Palace    5    3   -4      -1.10    35.78     0.63    29.97     8.13   -33.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05    74.48R   44.45  
Sunderland        5    1   -8      -4.77     3.94    -6.48    37.01     8.32   -21.76     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.42    42.41R   12.61  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 22 September 2013, Wigan 2 0 Ipswich; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

QPR              8   20   +6       6.35    95.41     2.17    82.07    10.27    20.72    20.00    35.62    75.38    46.44P    0.03R    0.00  
Burnley          8   17   +8       4.38    86.73     5.44    75.04    10.33    17.01     7.12    15.29    50.90    23.50P    0.14R    0.01  
Leicester        8   17   +5       4.06    84.72     2.10    81.10    10.09    23.38    17.41    32.51    73.23    43.59P    0.03R    0.00  
Blackpool        8   17   +4       4.60    87.57     1.79    73.88    10.32    11.21     5.28    12.19    45.66    19.37P    0.20R    0.02  
Watford          8   15  +10       0.89    58.22     4.91    79.66    10.46    29.92    15.27    28.96    69.10    39.91P    0.06R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest    8   15   +5       3.09    78.39     3.65    70.73    10.21    10.67     2.87     7.42    34.31    13.30P    0.48R    0.04  
Reading          8   15   +4       1.70    65.59     0.52    79.04    10.92    22.38    14.28    27.18    65.32    37.88P    0.10R    0.00  
Bournemouth      8   13   -6       4.69    88.66    -1.28    51.24    10.22   -29.52     0.03     0.11     1.54     0.31P   25.18R    5.52  
Huddersfield     8   12   +4       1.28    63.51     4.26    58.58     9.96    -4.17     0.20     0.61     5.98     1.53P    6.65R    0.82  
Brighton         8   12   +3      -0.07    49.45     1.26    73.22     9.94    16.54     4.18    10.58    44.30    19.76P    0.23R    0.02  
Wigan            7   11   +4      -1.82    30.85    -1.04    76.35    11.13    22.57    10.42    20.42    56.10    30.82P    0.21R    0.01  
Derby            8   11   +2       0.23    53.30     2.30    64.45    10.28     3.94     0.79     2.31    16.37     5.24P    2.26R    0.22  
Leeds_United     8   11   +0       1.26    63.84     1.76    62.94    10.25    -0.14     0.50     1.58    12.59     3.57P    3.36R    0.38  
Ipswich          8   10   +1      -0.16    49.18     2.23    58.57    10.11    -4.19     0.16     0.53     6.03     1.64P    7.40R    0.97  
Blackburn        8    9   +2      -2.72    24.60     0.83    63.74    10.24     6.07     0.68     2.04    14.68     5.04P    2.57R    0.25  
Middlesbrough    8    8   -2      -2.30    28.58    -0.88    57.44    10.24    -6.30     0.12     0.45     5.09     1.33P    9.09R    1.42  
Millwall         8    8   -6      -2.02    30.82    -4.73    52.06     9.77   -17.88     0.03     0.10     1.44     0.33P   20.40R    3.71  
Birmingham       8    7   -3      -3.80    16.22    -2.78    61.16    10.35     0.08     0.37     1.12     9.99     3.11P    4.75R    0.58  
Doncaster        7    6   -2      -1.63    33.45     1.16    49.67    10.47   -16.49     0.02     0.07     1.32     0.30P   29.16R    7.48  
Charlton         7    5   -3      -4.77     9.53    -3.18    56.99    10.31    -4.99     0.12     0.38     4.89     1.36P    9.80R    1.67  
Sheff_Wed        7    4   -5      -4.37    10.37    -3.23    49.28    10.15   -17.69     0.02     0.06     0.94     0.22P   29.77R    7.09  
Yeovil           8    4   -8      -2.85    22.32    -1.63    37.42     9.65   -38.52     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00    75.77R   43.41  
Barnsley         8    4  -13      -3.57    16.90    -7.23    41.81     9.59   -36.95     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P   61.14R   24.36  
Bolton           8    3  -10      -6.89     3.05    -8.40    56.84    10.55    -7.65     0.13     0.47     4.72     1.45P   11.23R    2.01  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 23 September 2013, Brentford 0 2 Leyton_Orient; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient    8   24  +18       9.54    99.64    12.54    85.02    10.43    31.49    13.82    33.01    85.01    44.78P    0.01R    0.00  
Peterborough     8   19  +11       3.44    80.12     3.30    93.08    10.82    48.39    41.06    65.73    95.30    75.05P    0.00R    0.00  
Wolverhampton    8   19   +9       3.83    83.31     2.44    91.62    10.61    41.39    33.50    60.01    94.45    71.50P    0.01R    0.00  
Preston          8   16   +8       4.23    85.53     6.81    75.54    10.44    19.05     2.76     9.10    55.76    19.17P    0.29R    0.01  
Rotherham        8   16   +5       5.94    92.65     6.64    61.10    10.98    -8.26     0.19     0.84    11.72     2.43P    9.22R    1.15  
Bradford         8   15  +10       4.35    85.60    10.58    59.78    10.67    -2.46     0.14     0.61     9.82     2.03P    9.97R    1.23  
Walsall          8   14   +3       2.45    73.43     2.16    67.93    10.41     5.33     0.49     2.23    27.00     7.11P    1.96R    0.14  
MK_Dons          8   13   +3       0.38    53.41     0.49    77.50    10.36    21.79     3.71    12.09    63.42    26.42P    0.16R    0.02  
Crawley_Town     8   12   +2       1.59    66.16     3.39    62.61    10.57    -1.21     0.17     0.75    14.12     3.08P    6.03R    0.69  
Brentford        8   12   -2      -0.33    46.80    -4.07    66.33    10.42     0.98     0.38     1.62    22.46     6.08P    2.82R    0.22  
Swindon          8   11   +3      -2.23    28.17    -0.46    77.12    10.37    24.38     3.32    11.35    62.49    26.94P    0.18R    0.01  
Colchester       8   10   -1      -0.01    50.81     0.56    53.87     9.96   -14.40     0.01     0.08     2.66     0.47P   22.47R    3.85  
Port_Vale        8   10   -3       0.86    59.89     0.27    53.78    10.81   -18.27     0.02     0.11     3.49     0.61P   25.40R    5.44  
Shrewsbury       8    8   -2      -0.66    45.17     1.53    56.72    10.03    -7.31     0.01     0.10     4.48     0.86P   15.06R    2.30  
Carlisle         8    8  -10      -0.62    45.72    -5.98    47.24     9.94   -33.51     0.00     0.00     0.61     0.08P   48.31R   14.57  
Oldham           8    7   -2      -2.81    23.87     0.10    51.00    10.08   -15.17     0.00     0.03     1.51     0.28P   32.16R    6.87  
Crewe            8    6  -10      -1.69    33.94    -4.16    46.71    10.02   -30.12     0.00     0.00     0.51     0.09P   50.02R   15.61  
Stevenage        8    5   -7      -4.50    11.81    -4.74    48.74     9.96   -20.37     0.00     0.01     0.87     0.17P   40.60R   10.25  
Tranmere         8    5  -10      -5.06     9.62    -8.43    51.59    10.05   -19.31     0.01     0.02     1.66     0.32P   30.49R    6.38  
Coventry         8    4   +6       0.27    52.47     1.61    63.02    10.69    16.50     0.18     0.99    16.21     5.10P    5.60R    0.65  
Bristol_City     8    4   -6      -6.37     5.18    -4.65    61.31    11.60     1.56     0.17     0.89    13.88     4.17P    9.90R    1.59  
Sheff_Utd        8    4   -8      -8.10     1.72    -9.70    59.47    10.30    -3.14     0.04     0.29     8.20     2.31P    9.87R    1.35  
Notts_County     8    4   -9      -5.98     5.54    -7.27    55.21    10.46   -11.27     0.01     0.12     3.93     0.89P   19.66R    3.71  
Gillingham       8    3   -8      -4.98     8.00    -2.97    43.90    10.41   -26.08     0.00     0.00     0.42     0.07P   59.79R   23.96  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 21 September 2013, AFC_Wimbledon 3 1 Burton_Albion; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield          8   22  +11       8.54    99.14     7.23    88.85     9.95    32.64    53.40    81.75    95.90    85.98P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town        8   18   +7       6.63    95.36     6.39    72.36    10.15    10.45     5.33    22.42    54.65    29.03P    0.23R    0.05  
AFC_Wimbledon         8   16   +4       6.43    94.92     6.18    63.46    10.14    -3.61     0.77     5.49    22.37     8.46P    2.27R    0.71  
Oxford_Utd            8   15   +7       3.70    82.42     6.53    74.07    10.18    17.54     6.81    28.57    62.38    37.15P    0.14R    0.04  
Mansfield             8   15   +6       4.50    86.98     6.73    63.75    10.71     0.81     1.23     7.00    24.95    10.67P    2.53R    0.85  
Wycombe               8   14   +4       2.41    73.44     2.99    67.84    10.16     6.72     2.16    12.00    37.45    17.89P    0.74R    0.24  
Rochdale              8   14   +4       2.26    71.59     2.85    71.61    10.25    12.36     4.53    21.01    52.20    28.84P    0.29R    0.07  
Morecambe             8   14   +2       3.02    78.47     2.09    65.98    10.21     1.86     1.49     9.01    30.71    13.57P    1.31R    0.36  
Exeter                8   14   +1       1.43    64.25    -1.41    66.98    10.10     2.46     1.74    10.30    34.05    16.04P    0.94R    0.26  
Scunthorpe            8   13   +3      -0.81    41.47    -1.25    74.26    10.68    16.65     8.17    30.29    62.24    39.95P    0.21R    0.05  
Newport_County        8   12   +3       3.07    79.29     6.36    50.99    10.22   -18.37     0.07     0.54     3.42     0.95P   22.02R    9.91  
Burton_Albion         8   11   -2       0.87    59.47    -0.54    61.27    10.23    -5.53     0.53     3.75    17.29     6.54P    3.84R    1.32  
Dag_&_Red             8   10   -1      -0.54    45.18    -0.33    57.21     9.94    -8.29     0.14     1.54     8.97     3.08P    7.61R    2.83  
Southend              8   10   -1      -1.34    36.73    -1.60    68.08    10.17     8.01     2.10    12.58    38.78    19.66P    0.76R    0.20  
Portsmouth            8    9   -2      -4.51    13.53    -5.85    74.08    10.77    18.18     7.79    30.05    62.00    40.65P    0.29R    0.09  
Torquay               8    9   -3      -1.56    35.07    -2.41    59.58    10.05    -5.23     0.34     2.54    13.13     4.94P    5.09R    1.69  
Plymouth              8    9   -4      -0.47    46.45    -2.07    56.16     9.65   -10.30     0.09     0.99     6.59     2.14P    8.80R    3.36  
Bury                  8    8   +1      -4.04    15.77    -0.64    68.17    10.78    13.30     2.70    14.45    40.90    22.40P    1.08R    0.30  
Bristol_Rovers        8    8   -3      -2.52    26.74    -2.39    54.72    10.09   -11.51     0.09     1.00     6.10     2.07P   11.84R    4.76  
Hartlepool            8    6   -5      -5.59     7.40    -5.98    59.31    10.39    -2.64     0.33     2.83    13.61     5.75P    5.62R    1.99  
Cheltenham            8    6   -8      -4.10    14.24    -6.59    56.61    10.20   -10.40     0.14     1.51     8.46     3.14P    9.15R    3.54  
York                  8    5   -6      -4.29    12.62    -3.69    46.43     9.49   -21.27     0.01     0.08     0.81     0.24P   36.49R   19.22  
Northampton           8    4   -7      -6.35     4.26    -6.14    50.73     9.97   -15.28     0.02     0.28     2.78     0.80P   21.47R    9.79  
Accrington_Stanley    8    1  -11      -7.07     1.37    -6.44    41.64     9.58   -28.56     0.00     0.02     0.25     0.06P   57.27R   38.38  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 24 September 2013, Barnet 1 2 Macclesfield; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd    11   27  +15       8.83    97.77    10.32    83.02     9.27    27.53    29.80    78.23    40.67P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         11   23   +5       9.17    97.78     6.84    70.51     9.21     4.41     2.93    27.37     6.67P    0.32R    0.01  
Kidderminster    11   21   +4       1.30    60.97    -3.45    79.51     9.29    20.49    17.69    65.42    30.80P    0.02R    0.00  
Salisbury        11   20   +5       5.16    86.55     5.33    62.58    10.01    -3.17     0.88     9.86     2.56P    3.90R    0.28  
Luton            11   19   +9       0.66    55.34     4.18    78.83     9.25    27.35    16.25    63.81    30.02P    0.02R    0.00  
Alfreton_Town    11   19   +3       4.89    85.38     4.72    65.47     9.43    -0.22     1.06    13.73     3.10P    1.65R    0.10  
Welling          11   18   +5       4.22    81.06     7.12    64.48    10.26     2.17     1.39    13.83     3.55P    2.94R    0.24  
Grimsby          11   18   +2      -0.32    46.98    -2.86    74.66     9.18    15.47     7.49    45.06    17.31P    0.07R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   11   18   +2       4.25    82.47     3.94    65.39     9.35     0.86     1.00    13.27     3.05P    1.60R    0.12  
Lincoln_City     11   17   +2       2.86    73.93     3.40    65.70     9.28     3.40     1.01    14.13     3.41P    1.33R    0.06  
Halifax          11   17   +0       4.47    82.98     4.47    60.10    10.24    -8.80     0.42     6.51     1.36P    7.49R    0.93  
Barnet           11   16   +4      -3.67    20.81    -3.44    75.87     9.75    22.92    11.23    51.48    23.59P    0.09R    0.00  
Southport        11   16   -3       2.57    71.78    -0.33    58.29     9.15   -13.18     0.14     3.20     0.56P    7.93R    0.72  
Forest_Green     11   15   +6      -2.74    27.35     1.75    68.87     9.37    15.11     2.44    23.84     7.80P    0.66R    0.03  
Hereford         11   15   +0      -2.25    32.00    -3.23    66.55     9.33     5.75     1.36    16.47     4.89P    1.14R    0.07  
Gateshead        11   13   -5      -0.79    44.20    -2.90    57.15     9.24   -11.17     0.10     2.53     0.51P    9.69R    0.94  
Tamworth         11   12   -5      -0.16    49.85    -0.53    51.36     8.94   -18.30     0.02     0.49     0.07P   24.11R    3.60  
Wrexham          11   11   -4      -7.23     5.19    -9.04    67.49     9.31     9.08     1.69    19.28     6.68P    0.89R    0.04  
Dartford         11   10   -9      -2.72    28.02    -5.25    52.08     9.26   -18.51     0.02     0.79     0.16P   22.85R    3.50  
Macclesfield     11    9   -4      -5.74     9.64    -3.48    55.86     9.31    -5.64     0.06     2.07     0.48P   11.53R    1.44  
Woking           11    8   -9      -4.72    15.04    -4.65    46.08     9.12   -27.10     0.00     0.12     0.02P   47.48R   10.65  
Chester          11    8  -10      -2.32    31.21    -2.00    41.22     9.38   -34.07     0.00     0.05     0.01P   68.43R   26.19  
Aldershot        11    7   +5      -2.48    29.16    -1.61    69.84     9.36    27.42     3.02    28.44    12.73P    0.51R    0.03  
Hyde_United      11    2  -18      -8.22     1.40    -9.29    36.04     8.74   -41.81     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.35R   51.05  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10