Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 23 September 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 22 September 2013, Arsenal 3 1 Stoke; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal           5   12   +5       2.16    74.64     0.50    73.01     8.90    29.83    20.26    38.94    55.71    70.53    90.65     0.00R    0.00  
Tottenham         5   12   +4       3.10    84.89     1.05    66.62     8.88    17.87     5.84    14.85    26.97    41.79    72.89     0.02R    0.00  
Man_City          5   10   +8      -0.39    42.99     2.49    74.99     8.60    38.31    27.68    49.11    66.04    79.11    94.18     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea           5   10   +4       0.73    59.86     0.31    71.68     8.79    28.54    15.45    32.38    49.54    65.64    88.63     0.00R    0.00  
Liverpool         5   10   +2       1.48    68.28    -0.36    66.25     8.80    18.23     5.23    13.83    25.60    39.70    71.72     0.02R    0.00  
Everton           5    9   +2       1.02    62.60     0.35    60.66     8.79    11.47     1.42     4.55    10.05    18.44    46.40     0.20R    0.01  
Southampton       5    8   +1       1.66    72.42     1.69    47.70     8.61    -7.31     0.03     0.17     0.51     1.25     6.17     7.08R    1.07  
Man_Utd           5    7   +1      -1.75    27.83    -2.30    74.23     8.60    35.79    23.91    45.35    62.96    76.72    93.20     0.00     0.00  
Swansea           5    7   +0       1.31    68.74     1.62    50.03     8.77    -3.15     0.08     0.30     0.88     2.18     9.68     4.55R    0.58  
Stoke             5    7   -1       1.75    75.14     1.11    46.79     8.31    -7.38     0.01     0.06     0.27     0.76     4.41     8.01R    1.07  
Hull              5    7   -2       2.58    83.88     1.93    37.53     8.39   -23.06     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.05     0.48    40.64R   12.39  
Newcastle         5    7   -3       0.61    59.06    -2.01    44.87     8.76   -15.10     0.01     0.08     0.25     0.63     3.41    13.78R    2.78  
Aston_Villa       5    6   +0       0.93    63.92     2.91    46.33     8.74    -7.65     0.01     0.10     0.31     0.80     4.77    10.11R    1.75  
West_Brom         5    5   +0      -1.99    26.46    -0.24    46.63     8.78    -5.76     0.02     0.11     0.37     1.00     4.94     9.36R    1.64  
West_Ham          5    5   +0      -1.75    29.16     0.04    44.06     8.53    -9.18     0.01     0.05     0.15     0.41     2.54    14.65R    2.86  
Cardiff           5    5   -2       0.06    53.88     0.66    39.75     8.84   -17.98     0.01     0.02     0.08     0.18     1.11    30.85R    8.48  
Norwich           5    4   -3      -1.98    26.20    -1.77    39.82     8.45   -17.64     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.11     0.84    29.63R    7.51  
Fulham            5    4   -4      -1.66    29.95    -2.20    45.18     8.74   -10.05     0.03     0.10     0.26     0.64     3.60    12.51R    2.27  
Crystal_Palace    5    3   -4      -1.09    35.81     0.63    29.94     8.16   -33.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.06    74.76R   44.36  
Sunderland        5    1   -8      -4.73     4.07    -6.41    36.64     8.31   -22.31     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.05     0.32    43.81R   13.22  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 22 September 2013, Wigan 2 0 Ipswich; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

QPR              8   20   +6       6.43    95.56     2.27    81.79    10.41    20.34    19.39    34.86    74.42    45.43P    0.02R    0.00  
Burnley          8   17   +8       4.39    86.86     5.46    74.95    10.30    16.95     6.92    15.30    50.62    23.25P    0.15R    0.01  
Leicester        8   17   +5       4.11    84.96     2.15    81.00    10.13    23.15    17.30    32.04    72.87    43.05P    0.04R    0.00  
Blackpool        8   17   +4       4.54    87.40     1.71    74.04    10.26    11.49     5.37    12.34    46.52    19.91P    0.19R    0.01  
Watford          8   15  +10       0.89    58.04     4.88    79.79    10.48    30.18    15.99    29.90    69.63    40.82P    0.04R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest    8   15   +5       3.09    78.29     3.65    70.66    10.17    10.62     3.01     7.30    34.18    12.97P    0.49R    0.04  
Reading          8   15   +4       1.64    65.27     0.43    79.30    10.73    22.72    14.50    27.74    66.70    38.95P    0.09R    0.01  
Bournemouth      8   13   -6       4.67    88.42    -1.32    51.44    10.24   -29.12     0.03     0.12     1.65     0.31P   24.70R    5.34  
Huddersfield     8   12   +4       1.27    63.22     4.23    58.58    10.00    -4.24     0.18     0.58     6.09     1.55P    6.78R    0.89  
Brighton         8   12   +3      -0.09    49.29     1.26    73.00     9.94    16.22     4.04    10.21    43.52    19.29P    0.23R    0.02  
Wigan            7   11   +4      -1.76    31.50    -0.93    76.14    11.20    22.24    10.16    20.16    55.64    30.54P    0.23R    0.01  
Derby            8   11   +2       0.20    52.92     2.22    64.58    10.33     4.07     0.91     2.50    16.50     5.42P    2.49R    0.25  
Leeds_United     8   11   +0       1.24    63.68     1.74    62.97    10.17    -0.10     0.54     1.52    12.45     3.59P    3.24R    0.38  
Ipswich          8   10   +1      -0.18    48.72     2.22    58.56    10.15    -4.19     0.16     0.60     6.22     1.62P    7.33R    1.00  
Blackburn        8    9   +2      -2.74    24.63     0.83    63.74    10.22     5.97     0.65     2.08    14.66     5.01P    2.61R    0.29  
Middlesbrough    8    8   -2      -2.29    28.63    -0.88    57.51    10.26    -6.25     0.17     0.53     5.28     1.46P    9.24R    1.42  
Millwall         8    8   -6      -1.99    31.12    -4.68    52.01     9.79   -17.91     0.02     0.08     1.41     0.31P   20.50R    3.80  
Birmingham       8    7   -3      -3.80    16.28    -2.81    61.08    10.31    -0.01     0.35     1.12     9.66     3.13P    4.71R    0.61  
Doncaster        7    6   -2      -1.61    33.71     1.20    49.60    10.45   -16.69     0.02     0.08     1.31     0.31P   29.58R    7.67  
Charlton         7    5   -3      -4.76     9.46    -3.16    56.96    10.40    -5.01     0.15     0.50     5.09     1.52P   10.02R    1.59  
Sheff_Wed        7    4   -5      -4.46     9.79    -3.33    49.39    10.25   -17.53     0.03     0.06     0.99     0.24P   29.69R    7.15  
Yeovil           8    4   -8      -2.83    22.34    -1.57    37.42     9.65   -38.52     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   76.33R   43.69  
Barnsley         8    4  -13      -3.59    16.76    -7.24    42.06     9.67   -36.51     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.01P   60.18R   23.87  
Bolton           8    3  -10      -6.85     2.98    -8.33    56.73    10.40    -7.87     0.11     0.38     4.45     1.29P   11.13R    1.95  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 23 September 2013, Brentford 0 2 Leyton_Orient; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient    8   24  +18       9.54    99.60    12.57    85.02    10.42    31.47    13.68    33.09    84.83    44.75P    0.01R    0.00  
Peterborough     8   19  +11       3.52    80.87     3.48    92.85    10.81    47.88    40.66    65.34    95.12    74.62P    0.00R    0.00  
Wolverhampton    8   19   +9       3.84    83.32     2.49    91.51    10.66    41.31    33.87    59.88    94.36    71.20P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          8   16   +8       4.18    85.18     6.75    75.69    10.35    19.29     2.82     9.33    56.33    19.78P    0.27R    0.01  
Rotherham        8   16   +5       5.94    92.52     6.65    61.20    10.89    -8.07     0.18     0.79    11.66     2.34P    8.82R    1.19  
Bradford         8   15  +10       4.31    85.44    10.53    59.65    10.68    -2.64     0.11     0.56     9.60     1.97P   10.26R    1.34  
Walsall          8   14   +3       2.43    73.24     2.15    68.00    10.42     5.43     0.57     2.32    27.23     7.19P    1.81R    0.15  
MK_Dons          8   13   +3       0.36    53.55     0.46    77.62    10.35    21.91     3.77    12.15    63.73    26.69P    0.18R    0.01  
Crawley_Town     8   12   +2       1.55    65.96     3.31    62.74    10.59    -1.01     0.16     0.81    14.34     3.17P    6.04R    0.63  
Brentford        8   12   -2      -0.32    47.07    -4.02    66.21    10.37     0.75     0.33     1.55    21.51     5.72P    2.90R    0.27  
Swindon          8   11   +3      -2.22    28.42    -0.47    77.10    10.40    24.38     3.29    11.36    62.39    26.94P    0.18R    0.01  
Colchester       8   10   -1       0.03    51.37     0.62    53.80    10.02   -14.50     0.01     0.06     2.60     0.43P   22.87R    3.83  
Port_Vale        8   10   -3       0.78    58.99     0.10    54.02    10.82   -17.80     0.02     0.13     3.71     0.70P   24.67R    4.97  
Shrewsbury       8    8   -2      -0.69    44.83     1.50    56.91    10.07    -7.00     0.01     0.14     4.65     0.92P   14.62R    2.21  
Carlisle         8    8  -10      -0.64    45.51    -6.03    47.35     9.95   -33.24     0.00     0.01     0.68     0.11P   48.08R   14.16  
Oldham           8    7   -2      -2.75    24.16     0.19    50.91    10.07   -15.37     0.01     0.04     1.53     0.26P   32.24R    6.96  
Crewe            8    6  -10      -1.69    33.77    -4.20    46.78    10.05   -29.92     0.00     0.01     0.58     0.11P   49.58R   15.24  
Stevenage        8    5   -7      -4.42    12.38    -4.60    48.45    10.00   -20.93     0.01     0.02     0.82     0.15P   41.71R   10.73  
Tranmere         8    5  -10      -5.09     9.57    -8.50    51.50    10.22   -19.43     0.01     0.03     1.82     0.35P   30.82R    6.63  
Coventry         8    4   +6       0.32    52.71     1.66    63.09    10.75    16.56     0.22     1.12    16.52     5.34P    5.44R    0.67  
Bristol_City     8    4   -6      -6.41     4.83    -4.72    61.41    11.48     1.79     0.21     0.85    13.74     4.07P    9.59R    1.44  
Sheff_Utd        8    4   -8      -8.09     1.63    -9.69    59.44    10.34    -3.24     0.06     0.31     7.99     2.28P    9.99R    1.48  
Notts_County     8    4   -9      -6.04     5.34    -7.37    55.27    10.46   -11.15     0.02     0.09     3.92     0.87P   19.57R    3.50  
Gillingham       8    3   -8      -4.93     8.34    -2.85    43.68    10.36   -26.45     0.00     0.00     0.35     0.06P   60.35R   24.58  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 21 September 2013, AFC_Wimbledon 3 1 Burton_Albion; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield          8   22  +11       8.55    99.18     7.26    88.68     9.95    32.47    52.57    81.37    95.91    85.68P    0.00R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town        8   18   +7       6.54    95.30     6.26    72.70    10.16    10.90     5.51    23.49    55.97    30.37P    0.21R    0.06  
AFC_Wimbledon         8   16   +4       6.50    95.09     6.27    63.40    10.16    -3.72     0.75     5.45    22.38     8.35P    2.31R    0.73  
Oxford_Utd            8   15   +7       3.71    82.41     6.53    74.22    10.16    17.80     7.06    28.98    62.77    37.38P    0.15R    0.04  
Mansfield             8   15   +6       4.45    86.63     6.69    63.88    10.62     0.99     1.24     7.06    25.03    10.65P    2.37R    0.81  
Wycombe               8   14   +4       2.40    73.12     2.99    67.81    10.11     6.62     2.22    11.79    37.34    17.90P    0.76R    0.20  
Rochdale              8   14   +4       2.26    71.52     2.85    71.55    10.28    12.23     4.36    20.84    52.02    28.68P    0.36R    0.09  
Morecambe             8   14   +2       3.00    78.15     2.05    66.08    10.19     1.97     1.64     8.88    31.01    13.57P    1.24R    0.36  
Exeter                8   14   +1       1.34    63.34    -1.53    67.31    10.13     2.87     2.04    10.83    35.09    16.61P    0.84R    0.22  
Scunthorpe            8   13   +3      -0.88    40.77    -1.37    74.56    10.68    17.14     8.80    31.17    63.16    41.00P    0.19R    0.06  
Newport_County        8   12   +3       3.10    79.36     6.40    51.11    10.25   -18.22     0.06     0.59     3.49     1.10P   21.51R    9.76  
Burton_Albion         8   11   -2       0.81    58.94    -0.67    61.42    10.18    -5.22     0.50     3.82    17.26     6.53P    3.76R    1.21  
Dag_&_Red             8   10   -1      -0.50    45.69    -0.27    57.10     9.99    -8.40     0.17     1.50     8.75     2.97P    7.76R    2.96  
Southend              8   10   -1      -1.36    36.70    -1.66    68.12    10.11     8.07     2.10    12.40    39.01    19.49P    0.70R    0.22  
Portsmouth            8    9   -2      -4.43    13.82    -5.70    73.71    10.75    17.65     7.26    28.75    60.70    39.51P    0.31R    0.09  
Torquay               8    9   -3      -1.57    35.12    -2.41    59.65    10.06    -5.13     0.35     2.58    13.31     5.00P    4.80R    1.69  
Plymouth              8    9   -4      -0.41    47.30    -1.98    55.74     9.65   -10.86     0.09     0.86     6.14     1.91P    9.28R    3.56  
Bury                  8    8   +1      -4.00    16.27    -0.55    68.00    10.90    13.02     2.74    14.40    40.08    21.97P    1.13R    0.37  
Bristol_Rovers        8    8   -3      -2.57    26.35    -2.45    54.72    10.06   -11.49     0.09     0.97     6.00     1.97P   11.82R    4.90  
Hartlepool            8    6   -5      -5.49     7.86    -5.87    58.96    10.38    -3.14     0.30     2.60    12.87     5.50P    5.94R    2.24  
Cheltenham            8    6   -8      -4.08    14.45    -6.54    56.47    10.15   -10.66     0.12     1.31     8.09     2.90P    9.29R    3.51  
York                  8    5   -6      -4.19    13.04    -3.57    46.16     9.45   -21.71     0.00     0.05     0.73     0.16P   37.88R   19.78  
Northampton           8    4   -7      -6.37     4.22    -6.17    50.87     9.99   -15.04     0.02     0.30     2.68     0.75P   21.12R    9.73  
Accrington_Stanley    8    1  -11      -7.13     1.33    -6.56    41.87     9.56   -28.11     0.00     0.01     0.21     0.05P   56.25R   37.41  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 21 September 2013, Aldershot 2 0 Wrexham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd    10   24  +12       8.08    97.42     8.61    80.55     9.43    23.17    21.84    68.90    32.20P    0.01R    0.00  
Nuneaton         10   23   +8       9.67    98.78     8.51    72.40     9.32     8.23     5.07    34.44     9.74P    0.20R    0.01  
Alfreton_Town    10   19   +4       5.90    90.92     5.07    67.14     9.62     1.18     1.91    17.79     4.39P    1.16R    0.08  
Kidderminster    10   18   +2       0.60    55.10    -3.91    78.27     9.53    19.18    15.69    59.75    27.89P    0.03R    0.00  
Salisbury        10   17   +3       4.42    84.28     4.72    60.44    10.28    -6.08     0.68     7.30     1.83P    6.41R    0.77  
Lincoln_City     10   17   +3       3.73    80.95     3.68    67.07     9.49     4.31     1.72    17.53     4.61P    1.02R    0.08  
Halifax          10   17   +2       5.01    86.70     5.00    61.00    10.41    -7.96     0.77     8.15     1.97P    6.39R    0.80  
Barnet           10   16   +5      -1.91    32.72    -1.84    79.43     9.99    27.38    20.90    64.88    34.52P    0.04R    0.00  
Luton            10   16   +5      -0.10    49.12     1.45    75.15     9.44    20.13     8.92    47.33    19.11P    0.08R    0.01  
Forest_Green     10   15   +7      -0.91    41.76     3.38    71.71     9.55    18.38     5.01    34.28    12.09P    0.32R    0.01  
Welling          10   15   +4       2.67    72.51     6.40    61.49    10.39    -1.24     0.83     9.03     2.23P    5.57R    0.67  
Braintree_Town   10   15   +1       2.36    71.45     2.49    62.17     9.38    -2.52     0.56     7.67     1.73P    3.33R    0.33  
Grimsby          10   15   -1      -0.86    42.34    -4.23    72.33     9.30    11.28     5.06    34.94    12.96P    0.19R    0.01  
Southport        10   13   -4       1.23    62.09    -0.86    56.48     9.44   -14.60     0.11     2.50     0.48P   11.31R    1.59  
Hereford         10   12   -1      -3.41    22.27    -3.56    65.31     9.38     5.23     1.16    13.82     4.09P    1.51R    0.10  
Wrexham          10   11   -3      -5.43     9.88    -7.35    70.05     9.45    11.77     3.28    27.40    10.17P    0.48R    0.02  
Gateshead        10   10   -6      -1.79    34.86    -3.03    56.13     9.38   -11.10     0.10     2.27     0.49P   11.55R    1.70  
Dartford         10   10   -6      -2.39    29.44    -3.98    54.06     9.32   -14.11     0.04     1.22     0.23P   16.46R    2.54  
Tamworth         10    9   -6      -2.10    31.90    -2.06    48.04     8.95   -21.90     0.00     0.22     0.03P   37.07R    8.45  
Woking           10    8   -5      -4.22    16.75    -2.14    49.25     9.42   -19.51     0.01     0.44     0.08P   32.07R    6.88  
Chester          10    8   -9      -1.54    37.26    -2.12    42.12     9.58   -33.14     0.00     0.09     0.02P   63.82R   26.09  
Aldershot        10    7   +6      -1.24    38.03    -0.81    72.66     9.54    30.81     6.29    39.08    18.92P    0.25R    0.01  
Macclesfield     10    6   -5      -7.56     3.34    -4.85    52.30     9.48    -9.59     0.03     0.95     0.23P   20.89R    3.78  
Hyde_United      10    2  -16      -7.64     1.82    -8.58    37.60     8.95   -39.32     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.87R   46.09  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10