Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 21 September 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 21 September 2013, Chelsea 2 0 Fulham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Chelsea           5   10   +4       0.81    60.80     0.44    71.72     8.74    28.56    15.85    34.59    52.65    68.48    89.61     0.00R    0.00  
Liverpool         5   10   +2       1.52    69.12    -0.29    66.24     8.84    18.26     5.64    15.16    27.63    42.61    73.59     0.04R    0.01  
Arsenal           4    9   +3       1.40    67.01    -0.20    71.49     9.14    27.63    16.71    34.47    51.45    66.53    87.92     0.01R    0.00  
Tottenham         4    9   +3       1.89    74.52     0.62    65.42     9.14    17.52     5.27    13.93    25.33    39.11    69.78     0.07R    0.00  
Everton           5    9   +2       1.00    62.36     0.32    60.82     8.77    11.70     1.71     5.30    11.47    20.80    49.43     0.18R    0.02  
Southampton       5    8   +1       1.68    72.48     1.70    47.61     8.61    -7.29     0.05     0.21     0.59     1.39     6.36     7.94R    1.27  
Man_City          4    7   +5      -1.59    25.36     0.26    71.83     8.91    32.41    17.98    36.32    53.78    68.86    89.52     0.00R    0.00  
Man_Utd           4    7   +4      -0.77    38.07     0.17    76.57     8.78    40.06    36.59    59.15    74.36    84.96    95.94     0.00     0.00  
Stoke             4    7   +1       2.35    82.98     1.95    47.73     8.53    -5.76     0.05     0.17     0.51     1.32     6.50     7.08R    1.08  
Hull              5    7   -2       2.56    83.68     1.76    37.47     8.25   -22.95     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.06     0.52    41.83R   13.85  
Newcastle         5    7   -3       0.61    58.97    -2.09    44.56     8.67   -15.31     0.01     0.08     0.23     0.61     3.56    14.87R    3.26  
Aston_Villa       5    6   +0       0.88    63.19     2.76    46.35     8.66    -7.38     0.03     0.10     0.37     0.93     5.11    10.15R    1.94  
West_Brom         5    5   +0      -2.02    26.21    -0.30    46.67     8.76    -5.54     0.03     0.16     0.46     1.21     5.57     9.80R    1.81  
West_Ham          5    5   +0      -1.73    29.72     0.05    44.05     8.55    -8.94     0.01     0.05     0.18     0.50     2.87    15.32R    3.34  
Cardiff           4    5   -1       0.90    66.31     0.91    40.96     9.15   -17.11     0.01     0.05     0.14     0.35     1.95    27.93R    8.37  
Swansea           4    4   -2       0.17    55.88     0.35    47.36     8.88    -6.52     0.04     0.19     0.54     1.42     6.46     8.80R    1.67  
Norwich           5    4   -3      -1.88    27.11    -1.65    39.45     8.44   -18.01     0.00     0.01     0.02     0.11     0.90    32.22R    9.50  
Fulham            5    4   -4      -1.70    29.50    -2.30    45.28     8.60    -9.78     0.01     0.06     0.26     0.70     3.86    12.48R    2.47  
Crystal_Palace    4    3   -2      -0.14    49.32     2.00    32.15     8.51   -29.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.16    66.42R   35.84  
Sunderland        5    1   -8      -4.74     4.11    -6.47    36.72     8.33   -21.95     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.37    44.87R   15.57  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 21 September 2013, Barnsley 1 5 Watford; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

QPR              8   20   +6       6.40    95.55     2.20    82.02    10.40    20.62    20.39    35.56    74.86    46.44P    0.01R    0.00  
Burnley          8   17   +8       4.37    86.94     5.43    75.16    10.30    17.20     7.22    15.65    51.72    23.92P    0.15R    0.01  
Leicester        8   17   +5       4.02    84.49     2.03    81.18    10.11    23.38    17.67    32.74    73.67    43.81P    0.02R    0.00  
Blackpool        8   17   +4       4.59    87.51     1.81    74.19    10.31    11.71     5.57    12.90    47.04    20.31P    0.18R    0.01  
Watford          8   15  +10       0.84    57.49     4.81    79.89    10.45    30.27    15.87    30.34    69.87    41.14P    0.04R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest    8   15   +5       3.10    78.48     3.66    70.80    10.21    10.81     3.00     7.57    34.79    13.53P    0.45R    0.03  
Reading          8   15   +4       1.70    65.93     0.51    79.13    10.73    22.51    14.08    27.12    66.23    38.22P    0.07R    0.00  
Bournemouth      8   13   -6       4.62    88.05    -1.44    51.54    10.30   -28.83     0.05     0.16     1.69     0.33P   24.77R    5.42  
Huddersfield     8   12   +4       1.32    63.77     4.32    58.30     9.93    -4.69     0.13     0.46     5.58     1.35P    7.21R    0.87  
Brighton         8   12   +3      -0.13    49.12     1.18    73.35    10.04    16.73     4.57    11.11    44.94    20.16P    0.23R    0.01  
Derby            8   11   +2       0.18    52.66     2.23    64.58    10.29     4.06     0.90     2.50    16.54     5.47P    2.38R    0.23  
Leeds_United     8   11   +0       1.28    63.88     1.76    62.91    10.29    -0.15     0.56     1.60    12.87     3.82P    3.33R    0.38  
Ipswich          7   10   +3       0.57    56.73     3.19    60.20    10.47    -2.00     0.36     1.09     8.84     2.50P    6.03R    0.74  
Blackburn        8    9   +2      -2.70    24.87     0.87    63.79    10.27     6.14     0.74     2.10    14.96     5.00P    2.72R    0.33  
Doncaster        8    9   +0      -0.09    50.67     3.01    53.68    10.53   -11.15     0.07     0.27     2.92     0.77P   17.87R    3.62  
Wigan            6    8   +2      -2.64    22.39    -1.77    74.20    11.55    19.74     8.17    16.61    48.87    26.23P    0.48R    0.04  
Middlesbrough    8    8   -2      -2.33    28.64    -0.93    57.40    10.27    -6.42     0.13     0.48     5.14     1.31P    9.40R    1.46  
Millwall         8    8   -6      -2.03    31.04    -4.71    52.07     9.85   -17.84     0.03     0.08     1.42     0.32P   20.84R    3.91  
Birmingham       8    7   -3      -3.81    16.31    -2.78    61.21    10.35     0.19     0.33     1.10    10.11     3.27P    4.96R    0.59  
Charlton         8    5   -5      -6.09     5.74    -5.10    53.48    10.08   -10.23     0.04     0.16     2.40     0.61P   16.79R    3.01  
Sheff_Wed        7    4   -5      -4.41    10.09    -3.26    49.19    10.30   -17.86     0.01     0.04     0.98     0.21P   31.13R    7.41  
Yeovil           8    4   -8      -2.82    22.62    -1.52    37.25     9.61   -38.85     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   76.92R   44.45  
Barnsley         8    4  -13      -3.62    16.73    -7.24    41.62     9.63   -37.24     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.03P   62.51R   25.37  
Bolton           8    3  -10      -6.81     3.07    -8.26    56.58    10.37    -8.09     0.10     0.36     4.41     1.25P   11.49R    2.09  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 21 September 2013, Colchester 1 1 Crawley_Town; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient    7   21  +16       8.19    99.20    11.03    81.69    10.75    26.79     9.40    24.22    75.77    35.64P    0.05R    0.00  
Peterborough     8   19  +11       3.40    79.90     3.23    93.30    10.81    48.83    43.39    68.25    95.51    76.98P    0.00R    0.00  
Wolverhampton    8   19   +9       3.84    83.09     2.44    91.53    10.63    41.34    34.74    61.98    94.41    72.80P    0.00R    0.00  
Preston          8   16   +8       4.24    85.46     6.85    75.48    10.47    19.00     2.87     9.67    55.49    19.94P    0.29R    0.01  
Rotherham        8   16   +5       5.96    92.52     6.68    61.08    10.89    -8.35     0.18     0.80    11.83     2.54P    9.18R    1.13  
Bradford         8   15  +10       4.33    85.84    10.54    59.95    10.63    -2.09     0.14     0.60     9.90     2.04P    9.69R    1.13  
Walsall          8   14   +3       2.36    72.72     2.06    68.23    10.27     5.86     0.57     2.45    27.97     7.57P    1.62R    0.10  
MK_Dons          8   13   +3       0.38    53.57     0.47    77.42    10.23    21.59     3.58    12.42    63.04    26.44P    0.18R    0.01  
Crawley_Town     8   12   +2       1.60    66.23     3.44    62.52    10.37    -1.39     0.13     0.71    13.44     2.94P    6.06R    0.58  
Brentford        7   12   +0       0.79    58.06    -2.46    69.23    10.68     5.39     1.00     3.61    31.81     9.92P    1.71R    0.13  
Swindon          8   11   +3      -2.23    28.17    -0.49    77.17    10.39    24.43     3.46    12.36    62.72    27.84P    0.22R    0.01  
Colchester       8   10   -1      -0.02    50.78     0.56    53.92     9.91   -14.42     0.01     0.08     2.69     0.50P   22.54R    3.74  
Port_Vale        8   10   -3       0.84    59.56     0.19    53.89    10.66   -18.10     0.02     0.13     3.55     0.68P   24.82R    5.01  
Shrewsbury       8    8   -2      -0.76    44.03     1.38    57.03     9.95    -6.92     0.03     0.15     4.70     0.95P   14.14R    2.02  
Carlisle         8    8  -10      -0.65    45.59    -6.04    47.38     9.95   -33.30     0.00     0.01     0.64     0.09P   48.58R   14.07  
Oldham           8    7   -2      -2.78    23.85     0.18    50.85    10.02   -15.46     0.00     0.03     1.45     0.25P   32.55R    7.12  
Crewe            8    6  -10      -1.65    34.13    -4.07    46.34    10.01   -30.78     0.00     0.01     0.46     0.10P   51.74R   16.58  
Stevenage        8    5   -7      -4.42    12.19    -4.63    48.44     9.97   -20.94     0.00     0.01     0.78     0.14P   42.29R   11.15  
Tranmere         8    5  -10      -5.09     9.49    -8.51    51.83    10.12   -18.91     0.01     0.05     1.76     0.37P   29.45R    6.31  
Coventry         8    4   +6       0.32    52.89     1.67    63.12    10.70    16.58     0.25     1.22    16.33     5.22P    5.66R    0.64  
Bristol_City     8    4   -6      -6.38     4.85    -4.64    61.26    11.38     1.43     0.16     0.83    13.57     3.84P    9.67R    1.56  
Sheff_Utd        8    4   -8      -8.08     1.64    -9.65    59.45    10.26    -3.25     0.04     0.31     8.00     2.25P    9.89R    1.25  
Notts_County     8    4   -9      -6.00     5.33    -7.32    55.01    10.44   -11.56     0.01     0.09     3.75     0.87P   20.41R    3.95  
Gillingham       8    3   -8      -4.97     7.98    -2.90    44.03    10.34   -25.78     0.00     0.00     0.41     0.07P   59.26R   23.48  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 21 September 2013, AFC_Wimbledon 3 1 Burton_Albion; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield          8   22  +11       8.55    99.12     7.25    88.83     9.94    32.62    53.73    81.77    95.80    85.85P    0.00R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town        8   18   +7       6.56    95.34     6.32    72.44    10.12    10.61     5.13    22.73    55.23    29.64P    0.19R    0.04  
AFC_Wimbledon         8   16   +4       6.42    94.84     6.18    63.57    10.10    -3.41     0.75     5.63    22.95     8.68P    2.13R    0.67  
Oxford_Utd            8   15   +7       3.68    82.20     6.51    74.06    10.17    17.48     6.60    28.50    62.23    37.09P    0.15R    0.04  
Mansfield             8   15   +6       4.48    86.94     6.70    63.83    10.58     0.91     1.14     6.94    24.76    10.47P    2.29R    0.77  
Wycombe               8   14   +4       2.37    73.13     2.94    68.03    10.14     6.94     2.30    12.19    38.24    18.23P    0.76R    0.24  
Rochdale              8   14   +4       2.23    71.43     2.82    71.67    10.31    12.36     4.51    21.45    52.74    29.26P    0.34R    0.09  
Morecambe             8   14   +2       3.05    78.54     2.11    66.01    10.14     1.87     1.39     8.82    30.71    13.37P    1.31R    0.32  
Exeter                8   14   +1       1.39    63.86    -1.47    67.24    10.11     2.72     1.91    10.74    34.72    16.36P    0.81R    0.25  
Scunthorpe            8   13   +3      -0.85    41.09    -1.31    74.35    10.78    16.83     8.54    30.86    62.51    40.56P    0.20R    0.05  
Newport_County        8   12   +3       3.10    79.15     6.38    51.04    10.25   -18.35     0.07     0.59     3.50     1.08P   22.08R    9.98  
Burton_Albion         8   11   -2       0.87    59.60    -0.59    61.39    10.20    -5.20     0.59     3.91    17.31     6.74P    3.77R    1.28  
Dag_&_Red             8   10   -1      -0.49    45.58    -0.29    57.13     9.98    -8.36     0.19     1.49     8.74     2.97P    7.65R    2.94  
Southend              8   10   -1      -1.36    36.66    -1.69    68.17    10.19     8.10     2.17    12.58    39.03    19.81P    0.81R    0.24  
Portsmouth            8    9   -2      -4.44    13.81    -5.73    73.78    10.75    17.68     7.35    28.87    60.82    39.54P    0.28R    0.08  
Torquay               8    9   -3      -1.59    35.10    -2.44    59.74    10.07    -5.00     0.33     2.66    13.63     5.21P    4.82R    1.66  
Plymouth              8    9   -4      -0.45    46.67    -2.01    56.01     9.70   -10.43     0.11     0.93     6.61     2.12P    8.99R    3.31  
Bury                  8    8   +1      -3.94    16.29    -0.50    67.88    10.85    12.81     2.63    14.01    39.47    21.45P    1.13R    0.31  
Bristol_Rovers        8    8   -3      -2.55    26.44    -2.41    54.69    10.00   -11.56     0.09     0.96     5.92     1.98P   11.54R    4.67  
Hartlepool            8    6   -5      -5.49     7.84    -5.85    58.98    10.44    -3.13     0.32     2.63    13.02     5.55P    5.94R    2.14  
Cheltenham            8    6   -8      -4.12    14.37    -6.62    56.48    10.16   -10.60     0.11     1.32     8.18     2.93P    9.42R    3.63  
York                  8    5   -6      -4.24    12.73    -3.63    46.26     9.46   -21.52     0.00     0.06     0.74     0.20P   37.45R   19.79  
Northampton           8    4   -7      -6.36     4.32    -6.13    50.88    10.04   -15.09     0.03     0.35     2.88     0.85P   21.01R    9.78  
Accrington_Stanley    8    1  -11      -7.12     1.39    -6.54    41.80     9.62   -28.28     0.00     0.01     0.27     0.08P   56.93R   37.72  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 21 September 2013, Aldershot 2 0 Wrexham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd    10   24  +12       8.10    97.40     8.63    80.49     9.48    23.05    21.82    68.70    31.98P    0.01R    0.00  
Nuneaton         10   23   +8       9.66    98.69     8.51    72.41     9.45     8.24     5.22    34.75     9.87P    0.22R    0.02  
Alfreton_Town    10   19   +4       5.91    90.92     5.09    66.94     9.63     0.85     1.76    17.49     4.25P    1.18R    0.08  
Kidderminster    10   18   +2       0.64    55.55    -3.84    78.09     9.54    18.92    15.45    59.14    27.75P    0.03R    0.00  
Salisbury        10   17   +3       4.42    84.40     4.72    60.42    10.20    -6.09     0.58     7.24     1.73P    6.46R    0.78  
Lincoln_City     10   17   +3       3.79    81.39     3.76    66.85     9.42     4.00     1.56    16.91     4.23P    1.02R    0.09  
Halifax          10   17   +2       4.97    86.50     4.90    61.13    10.48    -7.70     0.76     8.52     2.00P    6.46R    0.86  
Barnet           10   16   +5      -1.98    32.16    -1.94    79.65    10.01    27.67    21.55    65.64    35.27P    0.04R    0.00  
Luton            10   16   +5      -0.12    48.88     1.45    75.10     9.37    20.03     8.85    47.59    19.36P    0.07R    0.00  
Forest_Green     10   15   +7      -0.85    42.36     3.49    71.54     9.57    18.06     4.89    33.44    11.69P    0.32R    0.02  
Welling          10   15   +4       2.59    71.87     6.31    61.79    10.58    -0.75     0.98     9.94     2.64P    5.56R    0.72  
Braintree_Town   10   15   +1       2.38    71.35     2.48    62.11     9.37    -2.50     0.47     7.67     1.66P    3.36R    0.38  
Grimsby          10   15   -1      -0.85    42.47    -4.21    72.52     9.26    11.56     5.09    35.71    12.99P    0.17R    0.00  
Southport        10   13   -4       1.18    61.72    -0.96    56.72     9.32   -14.13     0.11     2.38     0.44P   10.58R    1.41  
Hereford         10   12   -1      -3.33    22.77    -3.47    65.11     9.51     4.96     1.24    13.63     4.05P    1.69R    0.13  
Wrexham          10   11   -3      -5.40     9.95    -7.32    70.08     9.54    11.84     3.48    27.90    10.55P    0.50R    0.02  
Gateshead        10   10   -6      -1.86    34.44    -3.10    56.26     9.41   -10.94     0.09     2.29     0.43P   11.39R    1.63  
Dartford         10   10   -6      -2.33    29.88    -3.89    53.77     9.23   -14.56     0.03     1.13     0.22P   17.07R    2.72  
Tamworth         10    9   -6      -2.09    32.18    -2.06    48.01     8.98   -21.92     0.01     0.23     0.02P   37.45R    8.64  
Woking           10    8   -5      -4.22    16.55    -2.14    49.22     9.39   -19.59     0.01     0.46     0.10P   32.82R    7.03  
Chester          10    8   -9      -1.58    36.78    -2.19    42.27     9.51   -32.84     0.00     0.09     0.01P   63.25R   25.54  
Aldershot        10    7   +6      -1.17    38.80    -0.69    72.33     9.62    30.26     6.04    38.22    18.56P    0.31R    0.02  
Macclesfield     10    6   -5      -7.62     3.20    -4.94    52.50     9.39    -9.26     0.03     0.93     0.21P   20.20R    3.58  
Hyde_United      10    2  -16      -7.66     1.72    -8.58    37.66     8.96   -39.16     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.84R   46.34  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10