Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 19 September 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 16 September 2013, Swansea 2 2 Liverpool; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool         4   10   +3       3.38    90.36     1.39    69.08     8.94    21.39    10.18    24.43    40.00    56.21    83.39     0.00R    0.00  
Arsenal           4    9   +3       1.47    68.20    -0.11    71.08     9.12    26.86    16.46    33.41    50.14    65.17    87.58     0.01R    0.00  
Tottenham         4    9   +3       1.90    74.60     0.65    65.38     9.14    17.51     5.55    14.15    25.58    39.76    70.62     0.06R    0.00  
Man_City          4    7   +5      -1.55    25.77     0.38    71.45     8.84    31.74    17.02    35.56    52.90    68.12    89.49     0.01R    0.00  
Man_Utd           4    7   +4      -0.72    38.92     0.24    76.42     8.68    39.69    36.44    58.81    74.15    85.02    96.34     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea           4    7   +2      -0.04    50.06    -0.42    70.13     9.03    26.55    13.07    29.11    45.89    61.76    86.00     0.01R    0.01  
Stoke             4    7   +1       2.37    83.36     1.96    47.91     8.46    -5.39     0.04     0.14     0.50     1.37     6.78     6.60R    1.00  
Newcastle         4    7   -2       2.27    81.53    -0.74    47.62     8.93   -11.31     0.06     0.26     0.69     1.62     7.35     8.65R    1.65  
Everton           4    6   +1      -0.38    43.80    -0.30    58.42     8.82     9.61     1.04     3.38     7.80    14.67    39.23     0.47R    0.03  
West_Ham          4    5   +1      -0.60    42.64     0.72    45.62     8.68    -7.20     0.01     0.11     0.35     0.92     4.81    11.33R    2.30  
Southampton       4    5   +0      -0.39    46.08     0.06    44.26     8.75   -10.92     0.02     0.07     0.27     0.69     3.64    15.11R    3.22  
Cardiff           4    5   -1       0.89    66.41     0.85    40.68     9.04   -17.51     0.01     0.04     0.12     0.34     1.96    28.42R    8.07  
Swansea           4    4   -2       0.15    55.42     0.27    47.49     8.85    -6.23     0.03     0.16     0.57     1.48     6.93     8.51R    1.49  
Fulham            4    4   -2      -1.06    36.55    -1.44    46.51     8.80    -7.94     0.03     0.15     0.45     1.18     5.75    10.03R    1.88  
Norwich           4    4   -2      -0.68    41.71    -0.87    41.75     8.79   -15.59     0.01     0.03     0.10     0.26     1.91    23.61R    6.15  
Hull              4    4   -3       0.62    63.55     0.28    34.32     8.23   -25.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.24    56.42R   23.40  
Aston_Villa       4    3   -1      -0.66    40.46     1.96    43.70     8.88    -9.99     0.02     0.07     0.23     0.61     3.51    17.36R    3.96  
Crystal_Palace    4    3   -2      -0.12    50.01     2.01    32.37     8.56   -29.04     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.01     0.19    64.98R   33.70  
West_Brom         4    2   -3      -3.18    11.61    -2.66    43.98     8.84   -10.02     0.03     0.09     0.24     0.65     3.28    16.28R    3.68  
Sunderland        4    1   -5      -3.91     6.28    -4.24    39.23     8.55   -16.93     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.12     1.01    32.15R    9.44  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 18 September 2013, QPR 0 0 Brighton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

QPR              7   17   +5       5.37    93.32     2.08    80.69    10.59    20.09    20.43    35.17    72.55    45.78P    0.03R    0.00  
Leicester        7   16   +5       4.51    88.84     2.22    81.23    10.33    22.87    21.27    37.27    75.33    47.50P    0.03R    0.00  
Blackpool        7   16   +4       4.96    91.09     1.79    74.27    10.46    11.33     7.38    16.11    49.78    23.45P    0.25R    0.03  
Burnley          7   14   +7       3.02    79.61     4.84    72.23    10.43    14.24     5.53    12.24    43.24    19.30P    0.42R    0.02  
Nott'm_Forest    7   14   +5       3.61    84.52     3.87    71.37    10.42    11.17     4.47    10.30    39.57    16.87P    0.53R    0.04  
Watford          7   12   +6       0.20    51.48     2.51    76.13    10.69    22.69    11.03    22.42    58.33    31.98P    0.18R    0.01  
Reading          7   12   +2       0.49    54.93    -0.87    75.54    11.09    17.41    10.41    20.49    55.32    30.31P    0.32R    0.02  
Bournemouth      7   12   -6       4.63    89.84    -2.20    51.01    10.29   -29.76     0.04     0.16     1.70     0.36P   28.25R    7.26  
Derby            7   11   +4       1.26    63.97     3.75    66.84    10.42     7.51     1.94     4.95    24.65     9.29P    1.74R    0.17  
Huddersfield     7   11   +4       1.36    65.19     3.82    58.46    10.16    -4.98     0.27     0.81     6.87     1.92P    8.07R    1.20  
Leeds_United     7   11   +1       2.56    77.04     2.62    64.81    10.26     1.74     1.05     3.05    18.15     6.03P    2.47R    0.30  
Ipswich          7   10   +3       0.42    55.16     2.98    59.84    10.33    -2.38     0.45     1.26     9.04     2.75P    6.63R    0.88  
Brighton         7    9   +1      -1.23    36.90    -0.07    70.59    10.12    13.13     3.34     8.60    36.81    16.34P    0.55R    0.04  
Blackburn        7    8   +2      -2.03    29.69     1.33    65.31    10.52     7.87     1.45     3.85    20.65     7.83P    2.43R    0.27  
Wigan            6    8   +2      -2.61    22.32    -1.71    74.43    11.43    20.07     9.62    19.16    51.92    29.02P    0.51R    0.05  
Middlesbrough    7    7   -2      -1.43    35.66    -0.19    59.02    10.39    -4.13     0.31     0.99     7.91     2.48P    8.20R    1.27  
Charlton         6    5   -2      -3.16    18.14    -1.86    59.88    10.53    -1.72     0.38     1.26     9.57     3.16P    7.04R    1.08  
Doncaster        6    5   -2      -1.50    34.10     0.77    49.77    10.77   -16.56     0.03     0.11     1.65     0.41P   32.02R    9.04  
Millwall         7    5   -7      -3.82    14.31    -5.95    49.20     9.91   -20.64     0.02     0.08     0.95     0.21P   32.52R    8.06  
Sheff_Wed        6    4   -2      -3.67    12.49    -1.28    51.97    10.33   -12.12     0.05     0.19     2.21     0.61P   23.15R    5.04  
Birmingham       7    4   -6      -4.78     8.34    -4.88    57.72    10.36    -5.50     0.19     0.63     6.17     1.85P   10.05R    1.71  
Yeovil           7    4   -7      -2.09    28.52    -1.51    38.36     9.70   -38.09     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   75.32R   43.78  
Barnsley         7    4   -9      -3.09    18.99    -4.85    44.93     9.89   -29.33     0.00     0.02     0.31     0.05P   50.12R   18.07  
Bolton           7    3   -8      -6.06     4.13    -7.20    58.56    10.50    -4.92     0.31     0.91     7.27     2.50P    9.17R    1.64  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 17 September 2013, Bristol_City 1 1 Shrewsbury; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient    7   21  +16       8.13    99.22    10.88    81.68    10.88    26.81    10.55    25.97    74.67    36.54P    0.06R    0.01  
Peterborough     7   16  +10       2.30    72.39     3.08    91.43    11.02    47.64    39.43    63.22    93.18    72.78P    0.00R    0.00  
Wolverhampton    7   16   +8       2.65    75.85     2.02    90.46    10.94    41.70    34.18    59.18    92.48    70.18P    0.00R    0.00  
Rotherham        7   15   +5       6.03    93.74     6.21    60.47    11.23   -10.36     0.23     0.86    10.98     2.33P   10.82R    1.43  
Preston          7   13   +7       2.69    76.47     5.97    73.47    10.71    17.48     2.39     7.80    46.87    16.65P    0.68R    0.05  
MK_Dons          7   13   +4       1.27    62.94     0.66    78.86    10.59    22.79     6.37    17.62    66.92    31.48P    0.14R    0.00  
Walsall          7   13   +3       3.09    79.98     2.65    69.33    10.72     6.98     1.05     3.84    31.20     9.43P    1.69R    0.11  
Bradford         7   12   +9       2.74    76.67     9.67    57.54    11.05    -4.83     0.14     0.52     7.34     1.69P   15.25R    2.26  
Brentford        7   12   +0       0.77    57.83    -2.49    68.91    10.64     4.78     0.95     3.52    30.06     9.32P    1.76R    0.10  
Crawley_Town     7   11   +2       1.93    71.05     3.36    63.49    10.76    -0.47     0.27     1.16    15.63     3.65P    5.62R    0.60  
Colchester       7    9   -1       0.29    54.09     0.47    54.30    10.30   -14.55     0.03     0.12     3.07     0.58P   22.10R    3.57  
Swindon          7    8   +2      -3.28    17.86    -0.59    75.82    10.55    23.97     3.23    10.95    56.64    24.80P    0.37R    0.02  
Shrewsbury       7    8   -1       0.17    53.71     1.74    58.33    10.37    -6.16     0.06     0.33     6.41     1.43P   12.31R    1.67  
Port_Vale        7    7   -4      -0.80    43.27    -0.90    50.26    11.05   -22.64     0.01     0.09     2.13     0.45P   37.28R    9.45  
Oldham           7    6   -2      -2.14    28.23     0.63    51.96    10.35   -14.61     0.01     0.08     2.11     0.42P   29.37R    5.71  
Stevenage        7    5   -5      -3.25    18.63    -2.92    52.18    10.38   -15.19     0.01     0.05     2.07     0.44P   28.51R    5.81  
Tranmere         7    5   -8      -4.10    13.36    -7.09    54.30    10.58   -15.28     0.03     0.11     3.41     0.74P   22.64R    4.25  
Crewe            7    5  -10      -1.58    34.58    -4.50    46.70    10.32   -31.17     0.00     0.01     0.57     0.10P   50.07R   15.71  
Carlisle         7    5  -12      -2.24    28.30    -7.90    43.54    10.02   -39.33     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.02P   63.19R   24.23  
Coventry         7    4   +7       1.78    67.76     2.80    65.79    10.99    19.96     0.57     2.35    23.09     8.00P    3.86R    0.42  
Bristol_City     7    4   -5      -5.47     7.06    -4.46    62.55    11.79     2.39     0.31     1.42    16.33     4.93P    8.60R    1.33  
Sheff_Utd        7    4   -7      -6.80     2.85    -8.80    61.34    10.56    -1.42     0.16     0.70    11.25     3.30P    7.71R    0.87  
Gillingham       7    3   -7      -3.70    13.46    -2.00    46.62    10.88   -23.31     0.00     0.03     0.89     0.19P   49.57R   16.36  
Notts_County     7    1  -11      -7.11     1.37    -8.47    52.47    10.72   -15.17     0.01     0.06     2.48     0.57P   28.42R    6.05  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 September 2013, Burton_Albion 1 2 Portsmouth; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield          7   19  +10       7.08    98.35     6.52    86.64    10.21    30.97    42.41    73.52    93.16    79.35P    0.00R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd            7   15   +8       5.01    91.11     7.49    76.40    10.39    20.06    10.75    35.30    69.12    43.45P    0.07R    0.01  
Fleetwood_Town        7   15   +6       4.66    89.76     4.83    69.16    10.29     6.92     2.92    13.99    41.28    19.65P    0.58R    0.15  
Exeter                7   14   +3       3.04    79.93     0.97    71.11    10.40     8.50     4.42    18.72    48.80    25.78P    0.34R    0.10  
Wycombe               7   13   +4       3.10    80.24     3.47    69.42    10.30     8.51     3.11    14.59    42.50    21.10P    0.56R    0.16  
Morecambe             7   13   +2       3.71    84.92     2.58    67.10    10.31     3.07     1.91     9.97    33.86    14.97P    0.88R    0.28  
AFC_Wimbledon         7   13   +2       5.13    92.40     4.65    61.03    10.21    -6.85     0.54     3.35    15.81     5.49P    3.69R    1.26  
Mansfield             7   12   +3       3.51    83.23     4.69    60.39    10.69    -4.88     0.59     3.55    15.65     5.83P    4.80R    1.67  
Rochdale              7   11   +3       0.94    60.53     2.31    69.60    10.46    10.75     3.26    15.27    43.98    22.47P    0.57R    0.16  
Burton_Albion         7   11   +0       1.90    70.00     0.89    63.70    10.39    -1.78     0.98     5.67    22.91     9.36P    2.27R    0.69  
Scunthorpe            7   10   +2      -1.95    29.30    -1.60    72.82    10.92    15.97     7.13    25.07    56.35    34.75P    0.34R    0.09  
Newport_County        7    9   +1       1.25    64.59     4.08    46.51    10.18   -25.60     0.00     0.14     1.36     0.35P   36.84R   20.26  
Portsmouth            7    9   -1      -2.88    22.08    -4.48    77.73    10.97    23.07    14.32    41.49    72.66    51.92P    0.15R    0.04  
Dag_&_Red             7    9   -1      -0.51    44.90    -0.86    56.60    10.12    -9.73     0.18     1.30     8.04     2.65P    8.21R    3.09  
Southend              7    9   -1      -1.23    37.19    -1.99    67.95    10.37     7.28     2.28    11.84    37.13    18.55P    0.85R    0.28  
Plymouth              7    9   -3       0.32    54.68    -1.87    57.10     9.93    -9.99     0.14     1.19     8.01     2.58P    7.48R    2.88  
Bury                  7    7   +1      -3.42    18.00    -0.28    69.50    11.17    14.75     4.09    17.31    44.85    25.54P    0.92R    0.29  
Bristol_Rovers        7    7   -3      -2.10    28.69    -2.31    55.04    10.19   -11.46     0.14     1.06     6.27     2.10P   10.76R    4.39  
Torquay               7    6   -5      -2.72    22.94    -3.77    57.09    10.15    -8.36     0.18     1.42     8.59     2.94P    7.74R    3.07  
Cheltenham            7    6   -6      -3.05    20.12    -5.10    58.78    10.23    -7.07     0.24     1.96    11.44     4.19P    5.91R    2.18  
Hartlepool            7    5   -5      -5.12     7.73    -5.88    58.38    10.62    -4.36     0.32     2.41    11.85     4.84P    6.63R    2.62  
Northampton           7    4   -4      -5.66     5.25    -4.17    53.85    10.25    -9.67     0.08     0.77     5.28     1.86P   13.30R    5.74  
York                  7    4   -6      -4.31    10.41    -4.25    45.50     9.56   -23.32     0.00     0.05     0.62     0.15P   39.29R   21.48  
Accrington_Stanley    7    1  -10      -6.00     2.41    -5.92    43.54     9.80   -26.76     0.00     0.04     0.46     0.12P   47.82R   29.10  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 17 September 2013, Aldershot 3 3 Barnet; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Nuneaton          9   23   +9      11.29    99.72     9.83    75.47     9.68    11.88     7.38    44.63    13.15P    0.08R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd     9   21  +11       6.77    95.53     8.07    78.78     9.71    21.95    14.16    59.36    23.97P    0.02R    0.00  
Kidderminster     9   18   +5       1.63    64.96    -1.50    81.49     9.67    25.09    21.32    69.66    34.93P    0.01R    0.00  
Lincoln_City      9   17   +4       4.62    87.30     3.94    67.74     9.64     4.47     1.51    17.97     4.43P    0.83R    0.10  
Barnet            9   16   +7      -0.83    41.10    -0.32    82.81    10.10    32.47    27.58    74.21    42.48P    0.01R    0.00  
Halifax           9   16   +2       5.45    89.94     5.05    61.51    10.91    -7.73     0.80     8.94     2.05P    6.13R    0.99  
Alfreton_Town     9   16   +2       4.48    85.99     3.38    63.89     9.85    -3.39     0.73    10.28     2.19P    2.47R    0.31  
Forest_Green      9   15   +8      -0.02    49.46     3.70    73.15     9.80    19.53     5.59    37.67    13.33P    0.18R    0.01  
Salisbury         9   14   +2       2.74    75.06     3.65    56.29    10.45   -10.88     0.20     3.26     0.76P   12.66R    2.43  
Grimsby           9   14   -1      -0.29    47.11    -3.98    73.36     9.62    12.29     4.98    37.02    13.13P    0.20R    0.02  
Luton             9   13   +4      -1.16    38.84     1.29    73.93     9.59    19.67     5.73    40.36    15.14P    0.13R    0.01  
Southport         9   13   -3       2.08    69.64    -0.68    57.83     9.77   -13.64     0.16     3.24     0.61P    8.83R    1.34  
Welling           9   12   +3       1.21    62.12     5.75    59.40    10.93    -3.26     0.53     6.77     1.73P    8.46R    1.60  
Braintree_Town    9   12   +0       1.24    62.89     2.30    60.84     9.68    -3.10     0.33     5.91     1.25P    4.30R    0.55  
Wrexham           9   11   -1      -4.80    12.01    -6.46    72.15     9.65    14.99     4.18    33.32    12.60P    0.21R    0.01  
Hereford          9   11   -1      -3.18    22.52    -3.82    65.59     9.85     5.11     1.22    13.97     4.03P    1.55R    0.16  
Tamworth          9    9   -5      -0.75    44.02    -1.08    50.30     9.28   -19.62     0.00     0.44     0.06P   26.55R    5.98  
Woking            9    8   -4      -3.35    21.27    -2.04    49.91     9.62   -19.39     0.02     0.47     0.08P   28.27R    6.72  
Gateshead         9    7   -7      -3.31    21.03    -3.80    53.94     9.69   -12.91     0.03     1.35     0.26P   16.10R    3.27  
Chester           9    7   -9      -1.40    37.45    -2.22    41.95     9.83   -34.42     0.00     0.08     0.01P   61.95R   28.15  
Dartford          9    7   -9      -3.73    17.70    -6.55    50.25     9.44   -20.43     0.01     0.39     0.06P   27.18R    6.35  
Aldershot         9    4   +4      -2.17    29.55    -1.80    70.61    10.01    28.23     3.54    30.01    13.58P    0.52R    0.05  
Macclesfield      9    3   -6      -8.79     0.95    -5.27    51.13     9.63    -9.73     0.01     0.68     0.17P   23.17R    5.38  
Hyde_United       9    2  -15      -6.23     3.53    -7.45    39.74     9.37   -37.15     0.00     0.01     0.00P   70.17R   36.58  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10