Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 18 September 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 16 September 2013, Swansea 2 2 Liverpool; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool         4   10   +3       3.39    90.36     1.42    69.02     8.94    21.31    10.56    24.48    40.14    56.34    83.17     0.01R    0.00  
Arsenal           4    9   +3       1.46    68.10    -0.12    71.17     9.04    26.96    16.30    33.74    50.75    66.21    88.28     0.01R    0.00  
Tottenham         4    9   +3       1.91    74.96     0.65    65.34     9.07    17.40     5.49    14.21    25.60    39.60    70.92     0.05R    0.00  
Man_City          4    7   +5      -1.53    26.26     0.41    71.46     8.92    31.84    17.62    35.86    53.10    68.25    89.57     0.01R    0.00  
Man_Utd           4    7   +4      -0.71    39.19     0.28    76.23     8.70    39.33    35.81    58.58    73.79    84.73    96.14     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea           4    7   +2      -0.05    50.01    -0.43    70.03     8.99    26.27    13.07    28.85    45.65    61.64    86.24     0.01R    0.00  
Stoke             4    7   +1       2.38    83.59     1.97    47.99     8.47    -5.28     0.04     0.17     0.53     1.40     7.09     6.58R    0.98  
Newcastle         4    7   -2       2.27    81.54    -0.74    47.45     8.86   -11.53     0.04     0.20     0.63     1.59     7.06     8.97R    1.69  
Everton           4    6   +1      -0.34    44.37    -0.26    58.11     8.86     9.20     0.91     3.16     7.41    13.92    38.24     0.55R    0.05  
West_Ham          4    5   +1      -0.61    42.68     0.72    45.74     8.69    -6.97     0.03     0.12     0.40     0.99     4.92    11.24R    2.22  
Southampton       4    5   +0      -0.43    45.33    -0.01    44.56     8.74   -10.46     0.01     0.10     0.29     0.81     4.03    14.40R    2.94  
Cardiff           4    5   -1       0.85    65.73     0.78    40.93     8.98   -17.11     0.01     0.05     0.14     0.32     1.79    27.50R    7.77  
Swansea           4    4   -2       0.12    55.09     0.24    47.57     8.83    -6.13     0.05     0.18     0.57     1.49     7.06     8.35R    1.54  
Fulham            4    4   -2      -1.08    36.43    -1.47    46.47     8.74    -7.99     0.03     0.14     0.42     1.14     5.71    10.24R    1.93  
Norwich           4    4   -2      -0.64    42.40    -0.82    41.54     8.69   -15.87     0.00     0.03     0.10     0.27     1.90    24.28R    6.39  
Hull              4    4   -3       0.59    62.85     0.26    34.42     8.20   -25.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.23    56.24R   23.61  
Aston_Villa       4    3   -1      -0.65    40.41     1.98    43.60     8.95   -10.11     0.02     0.07     0.20     0.54     3.31    17.97R    4.48  
Crystal_Palace    4    3   -2      -0.12    49.88     1.97    32.59     8.48   -28.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.18    64.31R   33.12  
West_Brom         4    2   -3      -3.13    11.95    -2.60    43.63     8.82   -10.43     0.01     0.06     0.21     0.56     3.23    17.49R    4.20  
Sunderland        4    1   -5      -3.91     6.29    -4.24    39.43     8.51   -16.68     0.00     0.02     0.05     0.15     0.94    31.79R    9.08  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 18 September 2013, QPR 0 0 Brighton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

QPR              7   17   +5       5.40    93.56     2.13    80.41    10.60    19.68    19.37    34.17    71.46    44.34P    0.03R    0.00  
Leicester        7   16   +5       4.49    88.91     2.17    81.40    10.39    23.06    21.75    37.61    75.47    47.86P    0.03R    0.00  
Blackpool        7   16   +4       4.92    91.18     1.75    74.24    10.41    11.28     7.27    15.63    49.22    23.13P    0.23R    0.03  
Burnley          7   14   +7       2.91    78.88     4.68    72.77    10.42    15.05     5.79    13.19    44.82    20.42P    0.35R    0.01  
Nott'm_Forest    7   14   +5       3.61    84.26     3.85    71.51    10.42    11.44     4.76    10.60    39.55    17.08P    0.55R    0.05  
Watford          7   12   +6       0.16    51.02     2.41    76.33    10.72    22.93    11.14    22.48    59.06    32.52P    0.20R    0.01  
Reading          7   12   +2       0.46    54.35    -0.88    75.66    11.00    17.57    10.62    20.83    55.47    30.97P    0.28R    0.02  
Bournemouth      7   12   -6       4.74    90.37    -2.01    50.54    10.21   -30.47     0.03     0.11     1.50     0.31P   29.49R    7.39  
Derby            7   11   +4       1.23    63.65     3.68    67.21    10.50     8.16     2.03     5.25    25.89     9.75P    1.57R    0.16  
Huddersfield     7   11   +4       1.35    65.10     3.82    58.25    10.19    -5.33     0.22     0.81     6.65     1.88P    8.34R    1.39  
Leeds_United     7   11   +1       2.60    77.28     2.66    64.71    10.33     1.54     1.00     2.93    17.94     5.81P    2.75R    0.36  
Ipswich          7   10   +3       0.45    55.61     3.01    59.78    10.23    -2.41     0.32     1.01     8.79     2.50P    6.52R    0.93  
Brighton         7    9   +1      -1.17    37.82     0.00    70.48    10.24    12.93     3.58     8.60    36.35    16.07P    0.63R    0.04  
Blackburn        7    8   +2      -1.97    30.12     1.41    65.09    10.55     7.53     1.36     3.67    20.07     7.46P    2.60R    0.30  
Wigan            6    8   +2      -2.62    22.34    -1.72    74.37    11.47    19.99     9.46    18.99    51.63    28.78P    0.52R    0.04  
Middlesbrough    7    7   -2      -1.45    35.62    -0.23    59.13    10.52    -4.01     0.34     1.03     8.21     2.48P    8.11R    1.38  
Charlton         6    5   -2      -3.18    17.92    -1.88    59.83    10.62    -1.75     0.42     1.32     9.50     3.21P    7.06R    1.12  
Doncaster        6    5   -2      -1.50    34.02     0.76    49.44    10.55   -16.92     0.05     0.12     1.37     0.35P   32.03R    9.10  
Millwall         7    5   -7      -3.83    14.06    -5.98    49.45     9.89   -20.32     0.01     0.07     0.83     0.20P   31.23R    7.87  
Sheff_Wed        6    4   -2      -3.66    12.96    -1.27    51.85    10.35   -12.31     0.04     0.17     2.04     0.57P   23.46R    5.35  
Birmingham       7    4   -6      -4.79     8.44    -4.88    57.89    10.46    -5.23     0.18     0.61     6.50     1.97P    9.92R    1.67  
Yeovil           7    4   -7      -2.08    28.68    -1.47    38.36     9.70   -38.05     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   74.84R   43.38  
Barnsley         7    4   -9      -3.08    19.04    -4.85    44.84     9.79   -29.45     0.00     0.01     0.30     0.07P   50.34R   17.82  
Bolton           7    3   -8      -6.05     3.94    -7.18    58.58    10.47    -4.94     0.24     0.78     7.34     2.25P    8.92R    1.55  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 17 September 2013, Bristol_City 1 1 Shrewsbury; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient    7   21  +16       8.07    99.14    10.80    81.97    10.78    27.29    10.63    26.38    75.94    37.33P    0.05R    0.00  
Peterborough     7   16  +10       2.27    72.06     3.03    91.71    11.13    48.15    40.41    63.96    93.33    73.49P    0.01R    0.00  
Wolverhampton    7   16   +8       2.64    75.82     1.99    90.44    10.95    41.69    33.91    58.68    92.52    69.97P    0.00R    0.00  
Rotherham        7   15   +5       5.97    93.75     6.12    60.90    11.33    -9.55     0.31     1.14    12.00     2.77P   10.42R    1.36  
Preston          7   13   +7       2.69    76.66     6.01    73.26    10.66    17.11     2.22     7.42    46.29    16.18P    0.58R    0.03  
MK_Dons          7   13   +4       1.34    63.86     0.78    78.54    10.54    22.29     5.71    16.74    65.70    29.99P    0.16R    0.01  
Walsall          7   13   +3       3.14    80.13     2.70    69.35    10.71     7.01     1.01     3.84    31.68     9.16P    1.73R    0.12  
Bradford         7   12   +9       2.85    77.25     9.83    57.08    11.05    -5.64     0.07     0.46     6.92     1.55P   16.17R    2.57  
Brentford        7   12   +0       0.78    57.83    -2.45    68.75    10.66     4.58     0.93     3.58    29.42     9.05P    1.82R    0.11  
Crawley_Town     7   11   +2       1.98    71.41     3.44    63.37    10.84    -0.73     0.24     1.25    15.63     3.88P    6.03R    0.67  
Colchester       7    9   -1       0.31    54.27     0.53    54.27    10.34   -14.68     0.02     0.15     3.20     0.63P   22.33R    3.71  
Swindon          7    8   +2      -3.31    17.82    -0.63    75.82    10.56    23.91     3.30    11.00    56.65    25.15P    0.34R    0.02  
Shrewsbury       7    8   -1       0.16    53.55     1.74    58.30    10.30    -6.23     0.06     0.27     6.33     1.37P   12.44R    1.59  
Port_Vale        7    7   -4      -0.83    42.94    -0.93    50.45    11.02   -22.27     0.01     0.06     2.06     0.35P   36.46R    9.24  
Oldham           7    6   -2      -2.21    27.20     0.50    52.20    10.32   -14.07     0.02     0.07     2.09     0.42P   28.46R    5.59  
Stevenage        7    5   -5      -3.20    19.11    -2.84    51.97    10.31   -15.59     0.01     0.07     1.90     0.36P   29.30R    5.91  
Tranmere         7    5   -8      -4.10    13.55    -7.10    54.29    10.46   -15.29     0.02     0.14     3.35     0.76P   22.52R    3.95  
Crewe            7    5  -10      -1.55    34.87    -4.47    46.63    10.21   -31.31     0.00     0.00     0.56     0.06P   50.51R   15.56  
Carlisle         7    5  -12      -2.25    27.95    -7.93    43.67    10.06   -39.07     0.00     0.01     0.29     0.05P   62.63R   24.22  
Coventry         7    4   +7       1.80    68.00     2.82    65.54    11.07    19.51     0.63     2.47    22.62     7.98P    3.92R    0.44  
Bristol_City     7    4   -5      -5.51     6.69    -4.58    62.63    11.70     2.51     0.32     1.47    16.43     5.13P    8.40R    1.19  
Sheff_Utd        7    4   -7      -6.85     2.78    -8.88    61.57    10.61    -1.08     0.15     0.74    11.71     3.54P    7.41R    0.77  
Gillingham       7    3   -7      -3.71    13.50    -1.98    46.43    10.84   -23.68     0.00     0.02     0.84     0.22P   50.56R   16.92  
Notts_County     7    1  -11      -7.14     1.30    -8.53    52.71    10.73   -14.84     0.02     0.08     2.54     0.59P   27.72R    6.00  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 September 2013, Burton_Albion 1 2 Portsmouth; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield          7   19  +10       7.04    98.19     6.46    86.62    10.21    30.98    42.00    73.26    93.00    79.01P    0.00R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd            7   15   +8       5.02    91.18     7.48    76.53    10.37    20.18    10.83    35.74    69.63    44.24P    0.06R    0.01  
Fleetwood_Town        7   15   +6       4.66    89.76     4.83    69.15    10.35     6.98     3.13    13.98    41.39    19.78P    0.58R    0.17  
Exeter                7   14   +3       2.99    79.54     0.89    71.20    10.36     8.64     4.48    18.79    48.71    25.94P    0.31R    0.09  
Wycombe               7   13   +4       3.11    80.28     3.50    69.29    10.33     8.25     3.08    14.15    42.03    20.58P    0.60R    0.17  
Morecambe             7   13   +2       3.69    84.83     2.55    67.00    10.30     2.90     1.95     9.66    33.59    14.56P    0.94R    0.29  
AFC_Wimbledon         7   13   +2       5.19    92.52     4.76    60.66    10.13    -7.42     0.40     2.94    14.67     4.86P    3.91R    1.33  
Mansfield             7   12   +3       3.52    83.35     4.68    60.48    10.78    -4.70     0.58     3.57    16.00     5.89P    4.94R    1.95  
Rochdale              7   11   +3       0.91    60.44     2.27    69.76    10.52    10.97     3.32    15.86    44.94    23.10P    0.58R    0.18  
Burton_Albion         7   11   +0       1.90    70.17     0.88    63.79    10.46    -1.67     1.02     5.79    23.37     9.41P    2.28R    0.76  
Scunthorpe            7   10   +2      -1.97    29.07    -1.67    73.00    11.02    16.23     7.14    25.45    56.72    35.08P    0.31R    0.12  
Newport_County        7    9   +1       1.25    64.54     4.11    46.49    10.21   -25.63     0.02     0.19     1.30     0.36P   37.17R   20.05  
Portsmouth            7    9   -1      -2.85    22.57    -4.44    77.63    11.03    22.93    14.21    41.26    71.96    51.54P    0.11R    0.03  
Dag_&_Red             7    9   -1      -0.50    45.05    -0.85    56.56    10.07    -9.78     0.19     1.30     7.71     2.56P    8.22R    3.16  
Southend              7    9   -1      -1.15    37.88    -1.88    67.83    10.39     7.06     2.25    11.52    36.83    18.22P    0.85R    0.27  
Plymouth              7    9   -3       0.33    54.88    -1.86    56.98     9.79   -10.18     0.14     1.12     7.47     2.39P    7.33R    2.70  
Bury                  7    7   +1      -3.45    17.98    -0.30    69.64    11.23    14.94     4.29    17.47    45.29    25.60P    0.91R    0.27  
Bristol_Rovers        7    7   -3      -2.12    28.37    -2.35    55.12    10.21   -11.35     0.11     0.92     6.22     2.02P   10.61R    4.24  
Torquay               7    6   -5      -2.71    22.67    -3.75    56.93    10.14    -8.60     0.13     1.26     8.37     2.90P    7.85R    3.09  
Cheltenham            7    6   -6      -3.08    19.99    -5.11    58.85    10.43    -6.96     0.28     2.27    12.04     4.50P    6.04R    2.35  
Hartlepool            7    5   -5      -5.19     7.30    -5.97    58.83    10.65    -3.79     0.39     2.68    12.63     5.50P    6.07R    2.31  
Northampton           7    4   -4      -5.65     5.35    -4.16    53.72    10.24    -9.82     0.08     0.75     5.05     1.69P   13.31R    5.53  
York                  7    4   -6      -4.29    10.39    -4.23    45.48     9.56   -23.38     0.00     0.05     0.66     0.16P   39.14R   21.67  
Accrington_Stanley    7    1  -10      -5.97     2.53    -5.85    43.50     9.76   -26.79     0.00     0.03     0.41     0.10P   47.87R   29.29  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 17 September 2013, Aldershot 3 3 Barnet; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Nuneaton          9   23   +9      11.31    99.77     9.88    75.40     9.64    11.81     7.28    44.72    13.14P    0.09R    0.01  
Cambridge_Utd     9   21  +11       6.73    95.28     8.02    78.90     9.69    22.22    14.50    60.15    24.49P    0.03R    0.00  
Kidderminster     9   18   +5       1.65    65.15    -1.45    81.30     9.66    24.73    20.97    69.38    34.53P    0.01R    0.00  
Lincoln_City      9   17   +4       4.61    87.14     3.93    67.77     9.63     4.50     1.61    18.31     4.58P    0.80R    0.05  
Barnet            9   16   +7      -0.83    40.86    -0.29    82.72    10.08    32.34    27.68    74.05    42.46P    0.00R    0.00  
Halifax           9   16   +2       5.30    89.25     4.81    62.14    10.89    -6.71     0.91     9.66     2.29P    5.27R    0.77  
Alfreton_Town     9   16   +2       4.48    85.91     3.38    63.74     9.96    -3.61     0.85    10.41     2.27P    2.70R    0.28  
Forest_Green      9   15   +8       0.05    50.14     3.82    73.08     9.75    19.35     5.52    37.64    13.39P    0.17R    0.01  
Salisbury         9   14   +2       2.73    74.96     3.61    56.29    10.38   -10.87     0.21     3.25     0.71P   12.68R    2.45  
Grimsby           9   14   -1      -0.29    47.27    -3.97    73.34     9.60    12.31     5.02    36.92    13.36P    0.17R    0.01  
Luton             9   13   +4      -1.14    38.88     1.31    73.97     9.65    19.70     5.90    40.58    15.15P    0.11R    0.00  
Southport         9   13   -3       2.07    69.67    -0.69    57.96     9.73   -13.40     0.13     3.37     0.60P    8.71R    1.24  
Welling           9   12   +3       1.19    61.85     5.69    59.43    10.83    -3.14     0.52     6.59     1.64P    8.31R    1.49  
Braintree_Town    9   12   +0       1.26    63.10     2.31    60.80     9.69    -3.16     0.30     5.92     1.28P    4.41R    0.60  
Wrexham           9   11   -1      -4.74    12.11    -6.37    71.97     9.61    14.68     4.14    32.63    12.53P    0.22R    0.01  
Hereford          9   11   -1      -3.14    22.95    -3.76    65.40     9.72     4.84     1.00    13.49     3.82P    1.58R    0.12  
Tamworth          9    9   -5      -0.73    44.48    -1.08    50.29     9.30   -19.54     0.01     0.46     0.09P   26.85R    6.04  
Woking            9    8   -4      -3.38    20.83    -2.11    50.01     9.64   -19.24     0.02     0.53     0.09P   28.30R    6.46  
Gateshead         9    7   -7      -3.31    21.19    -3.79    53.91     9.56   -13.04     0.03     1.23     0.27P   15.99R    3.14  
Chester           9    7   -9      -1.43    37.49    -2.24    41.83     9.95   -34.60     0.00     0.09     0.02P   62.51R   28.92  
Dartford          9    7   -9      -3.72    17.73    -6.55    50.37     9.42   -20.26     0.01     0.43     0.08P   26.98R    6.13  
Aldershot         9    4   +4      -2.13    29.88    -1.71    70.40     9.96    27.86     3.37    29.55    13.09P    0.62R    0.05  
Macclesfield      9    3   -6      -8.79     0.95    -5.28    51.20     9.64    -9.61     0.03     0.64     0.13P   23.29R    5.16  
Hyde_United       9    2  -15      -6.24     3.63    -7.48    39.78     9.45   -37.15     0.00     0.02     0.01P   70.20R   37.05  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10