Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 17 September 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 16 September 2013, Swansea 2 2 Liverpool; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool         4   10   +3       3.37    90.18     1.38    69.22     8.96    21.64    10.81    25.37    40.99    57.11    83.78     0.02R    0.00  
Arsenal           4    9   +3       1.47    68.01    -0.11    71.07     9.08    26.88    16.30    33.18    49.94    65.62    88.22     0.01R    0.00  
Tottenham         4    9   +3       1.93    75.18     0.67    65.16     9.09    17.10     5.21    13.72    24.93    38.72    70.18     0.07R    0.00  
Man_City          4    7   +5      -1.52    26.26     0.42    71.55     8.96    31.91    17.69    36.27    53.40    68.70    89.65     0.00R    0.00  
Man_Utd           4    7   +4      -0.70    39.48     0.30    76.23     8.71    39.34    35.76    58.12    73.68    84.63    96.21     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea           4    7   +2      -0.04    49.91    -0.42    70.03     9.04    26.33    12.94    28.92    45.84    61.32    85.93     0.01R    0.00  
Stoke             4    7   +1       2.39    83.47     1.99    47.80     8.44    -5.54     0.04     0.14     0.48     1.30     6.55     6.87R    1.00  
Newcastle         4    7   -2       2.26    81.29    -0.75    47.55     8.90   -11.36     0.06     0.26     0.66     1.60     7.15     8.98R    1.65  
Everton           4    6   +1      -0.36    43.98    -0.30    58.26     8.87     9.43     1.03     3.26     7.56    14.47    38.97     0.54R    0.05  
West_Ham          4    5   +1      -0.58    43.18     0.75    45.74     8.70    -7.04     0.02     0.09     0.37     0.97     4.96    11.30R    2.26  
Southampton       4    5   +0      -0.45    45.21    -0.03    44.59     8.72   -10.38     0.02     0.11     0.32     0.77     3.92    14.31R    3.05  
Cardiff           4    5   -1       0.88    66.16     0.82    40.74     9.02   -17.40     0.00     0.03     0.12     0.35     1.87    28.31R    8.17  
Swansea           4    4   -2       0.14    55.45     0.26    47.55     8.78    -6.18     0.04     0.16     0.55     1.35     6.87     8.28R    1.49  
Fulham            4    4   -2      -1.07    36.28    -1.46    46.49     8.74    -7.92     0.05     0.16     0.46     1.23     5.65    10.02R    1.90  
Norwich           4    4   -2      -0.65    42.37    -0.82    41.48     8.65   -16.02     0.01     0.03     0.11     0.33     1.75    24.39R    6.16  
Hull              4    4   -3       0.58    62.78     0.23    34.54     8.36   -25.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.29    55.46R   23.22  
Aston_Villa       4    3   -1      -0.67    40.27     1.96    43.68     8.97    -9.94     0.01     0.10     0.28     0.65     3.37    17.76R    4.23  
Crystal_Palace    4    3   -2      -0.14    49.63     1.96    32.48     8.59   -28.77     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.02     0.20    64.72R   33.71  
West_Brom         4    2   -3      -3.16    11.53    -2.62    43.82     8.84   -10.28     0.01     0.06     0.25     0.68     3.38    16.83R    3.93  
Sunderland        4    1   -5      -3.90     6.18    -4.23    39.37     8.60   -16.67     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.17     1.09    32.13R    9.17  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 17 September 2013, Bolton 2 2 Derby; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester        7   16   +5       4.50    89.00     2.17    81.48    10.26    23.21    20.97    37.23    75.59    47.86P    0.02R    0.00  
QPR              6   16   +5       5.89    96.51     2.28    81.57    10.83    20.91    22.38    37.73    74.22    47.73P    0.05R    0.01  
Blackpool        7   16   +4       4.89    90.64     1.69    74.27    10.46    11.36     6.92    15.26    49.23    22.83P    0.25R    0.02  
Burnley          7   14   +7       2.93    79.19     4.69    72.85    10.41    15.09     5.77    13.06    44.83    20.45P    0.35R    0.02  
Nott'm_Forest    7   14   +5       3.62    84.35     3.87    71.48    10.41    11.31     4.29    10.28    38.90    16.60P    0.53R    0.05  
Watford          7   12   +6       0.17    51.19     2.44    76.19    10.64    22.72    10.60    21.36    58.07    31.45P    0.17R    0.02  
Bournemouth      7   12   -6       4.66    89.82    -2.13    50.71    10.32   -30.40     0.04     0.14     1.65     0.34P   28.96R    7.16  
Derby            7   11   +4       1.21    63.37     3.68    67.04    10.46     7.89     1.95     4.98    24.82     9.15P    1.56R    0.15  
Huddersfield     7   11   +4       1.34    65.09     3.82    58.24    10.10    -5.43     0.22     0.78     6.49     1.84P    8.17R    1.20  
Leeds_United     6   11   +2       3.39    84.92     2.86    66.42    10.62     2.92     1.75     4.55    22.72     8.33P    2.02R    0.24  
Ipswich          7   10   +3       0.46    55.51     3.05    59.98    10.34    -2.20     0.37     1.18     9.07     2.71P    6.50R    0.86  
Reading          6    9   +1      -0.72    41.30    -1.24    74.56    11.27    17.40     9.02    18.17    51.08    27.66P    0.41R    0.04  
Blackburn        7    8   +2      -2.01    29.66     1.37    65.29    10.55     7.80     1.35     3.68    20.37     7.78P    2.37R    0.27  
Wigan            6    8   +2      -2.64    22.12    -1.74    74.42    11.40    20.10     9.40    18.79    51.14    28.19P    0.43R    0.05  
Brighton         6    8   +1      -1.07    38.35    -0.27    70.67    10.42    12.82     3.83     8.99    36.70    16.50P    0.71R    0.05  
Middlesbrough    7    7   -2      -1.45    35.58    -0.21    58.94    10.40    -4.32     0.28     0.89     7.65     2.25P    8.04R    1.32  
Charlton         6    5   -2      -3.14    18.16    -1.83    59.50    10.53    -2.39     0.31     1.06     8.85     2.77P    7.33R    1.20  
Doncaster        6    5   -2      -1.44    34.98     0.87    49.32    10.62   -17.27     0.03     0.11     1.37     0.34P   32.59R    9.21  
Millwall         7    5   -7      -3.79    14.56    -5.91    49.14     9.96   -20.90     0.02     0.05     0.92     0.21P   32.40R    8.09  
Sheff_Wed        6    4   -2      -3.65    12.93    -1.22    51.91    10.29   -12.37     0.05     0.15     2.00     0.50P   22.66R    5.10  
Birmingham       7    4   -6      -4.82     8.31    -4.89    57.93    10.45    -5.23     0.18     0.66     6.32     1.88P    9.78R    1.66  
Yeovil           7    4   -7      -2.02    29.31    -1.34    38.07     9.80   -38.83     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.00P   75.31R   44.27  
Barnsley         7    4   -9      -3.06    19.39    -4.81    44.63     9.84   -29.85     0.00     0.01     0.30     0.05P   50.85R   17.69  
Bolton           7    3   -8      -6.08     3.84    -7.21    58.97    10.53    -4.33     0.27     0.88     7.65     2.57P    8.54R    1.32  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 17 September 2013, Bristol_City 1 1 Shrewsbury; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient    7   21  +16       8.19    99.24    10.97    81.42    10.74    26.38    10.01    24.85    74.23    35.67P    0.05R    0.00  
Peterborough     7   16  +10       2.26    72.08     3.00    91.54    11.13    47.83    39.72    63.46    93.28    73.02P    0.01R    0.00  
Wolverhampton    7   16   +8       2.64    75.80     1.99    90.49    10.92    41.80    34.41    59.16    92.62    70.28P    0.01R    0.00  
Rotherham        7   15   +5       6.02    93.90     6.20    60.49    11.25   -10.24     0.24     0.96    11.10     2.46P   10.82R    1.34  
Preston          7   13   +7       2.69    76.52     6.00    73.31    10.71    17.25     2.30     7.79    46.36    16.36P    0.63R    0.03  
MK_Dons          7   13   +4       1.29    63.37     0.71    78.79    10.61    22.65     6.20    17.39    66.63    30.99P    0.14R    0.01  
Walsall          7   13   +3       3.09    79.76     2.64    69.57    10.65     7.33     1.05     3.99    31.98     9.70P    1.48R    0.08  
Bradford         7   12   +9       2.78    77.17     9.73    57.49    11.00    -5.07     0.13     0.51     6.98     1.50P   15.25R    2.34  
Brentford        7   12   +0       0.75    57.56    -2.52    69.21    10.66     5.24     1.04     4.00    30.81     9.95P    1.57R    0.12  
Crawley_Town     7   11   +2       2.01    71.83     3.48    63.16    10.81    -1.07     0.27     1.20    15.29     3.70P    5.99R    0.66  
Colchester       7    9   -1       0.30    54.28     0.48    54.30    10.29   -14.49     0.03     0.16     3.17     0.61P   22.10R    3.52  
Swindon          7    8   +2      -3.24    18.02    -0.54    75.73    10.60    23.79     3.30    10.99    56.35    24.44P    0.33R    0.01  
Shrewsbury       7    8   -1       0.14    53.34     1.73    58.30    10.34    -6.29     0.05     0.34     6.44     1.46P   12.56R    1.68  
Port_Vale        7    7   -4      -0.87    42.48    -1.01    50.47    11.11   -22.19     0.03     0.10     2.22     0.47P   36.68R    9.19  
Oldham           7    6   -2      -2.19    27.77     0.53    52.11    10.41   -14.24     0.01     0.07     2.19     0.42P   28.91R    5.81  
Stevenage        7    5   -5      -3.19    18.88    -2.88    52.00    10.22   -15.46     0.01     0.05     1.88     0.35P   28.76R    5.76  
Tranmere         7    5   -8      -4.11    13.40    -7.10    54.27    10.47   -15.27     0.01     0.12     3.26     0.73P   22.68R    3.97  
Crewe            7    5  -10      -1.55    34.67    -4.45    46.40    10.23   -31.61     0.00     0.01     0.57     0.09P   51.38R   16.24  
Carlisle         7    5  -12      -2.21    28.60    -7.87    43.56     9.95   -39.20     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.03P   63.12R   24.20  
Coventry         7    4   +7       1.76    67.56     2.75    65.73    10.93    19.84     0.62     2.36    22.90     8.08P    3.66R    0.37  
Bristol_City     7    4   -5      -5.46     6.97    -4.49    62.53    11.73     2.43     0.35     1.54    16.23     5.27P    8.56R    1.32  
Sheff_Utd        7    4   -7      -6.84     2.89    -8.88    61.70    10.60    -0.89     0.19     0.86    12.10     3.68P    7.27R    0.77  
Gillingham       7    3   -7      -3.72    13.50    -2.00    46.49    10.76   -23.54     0.00     0.03     0.76     0.18P   50.08R   16.58  
Notts_County     7    1  -11      -7.13     1.24    -8.50    52.61    10.66   -14.95     0.02     0.07     2.44     0.55P   27.94R    6.02  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 September 2013, Burton_Albion 1 2 Portsmouth; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield          7   19  +10       7.08    98.28     6.52    86.54    10.17    30.81    41.81    73.17    93.01    79.19P    0.00R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd            7   15   +8       4.99    90.97     7.46    76.52    10.47    20.28    11.02    36.10    69.61    44.42P    0.10R    0.02  
Fleetwood_Town        7   15   +6       4.68    89.55     4.85    69.12    10.34     6.87     3.06    13.99    41.23    19.86P    0.56R    0.18  
Exeter                7   14   +3       3.03    79.82     0.94    71.01    10.34     8.36     4.43    18.28    48.30    25.45P    0.32R    0.07  
Wycombe               7   13   +4       3.15    80.69     3.52    69.21    10.36     8.20     3.11    14.11    41.64    20.46P    0.62R    0.17  
Morecambe             7   13   +2       3.69    84.80     2.53    67.17    10.39     3.18     1.98    10.39    34.00    15.42P    0.92R    0.31  
AFC_Wimbledon         7   13   +2       5.18    92.53     4.73    60.82    10.26    -7.15     0.43     3.22    15.71     5.32P    4.08R    1.48  
Mansfield             7   12   +3       3.49    82.85     4.65    60.60    10.80    -4.58     0.63     3.88    16.60     6.23P    4.71R    1.75  
Rochdale              7   11   +3       0.89    60.02     2.28    69.73    10.51    10.85     3.51    15.50    44.28    22.75P    0.57R    0.19  
Burton_Albion         7   11   +0       1.88    69.90     0.83    63.97    10.51    -1.33     1.10     6.16    23.90     9.80P    2.34R    0.75  
Scunthorpe            7   10   +2      -1.95    29.75    -1.62    72.75    10.90    15.86     6.82    24.86    55.91    34.24P    0.36R    0.12  
Newport_County        7    9   +1       1.30    65.12     4.16    46.24    10.25   -26.01     0.03     0.18     1.31     0.33P   38.00R   20.96  
Portsmouth            7    9   -1      -2.85    22.55    -4.45    77.69    11.09    23.03    14.52    41.63    72.26    51.68P    0.11R    0.04  
Dag_&_Red             7    9   -1      -0.56    44.27    -0.93    56.91    10.11    -9.21     0.17     1.43     8.50     2.84P    7.68R    2.81  
Southend              7    9   -1      -1.19    37.25    -1.96    67.88    10.31     7.19     2.30    11.62    37.18    18.42P    0.82R    0.26  
Plymouth              7    9   -3       0.33    54.92    -1.83    56.83     9.82   -10.39     0.14     1.13     7.54     2.33P    7.56R    2.92  
Bury                  7    7   +1      -3.38    18.27    -0.20    69.24    11.20    14.45     3.89    16.45    43.98    24.60P    0.99R    0.33  
Bristol_Rovers        7    7   -3      -2.11    28.71    -2.31    55.03    10.25   -11.49     0.13     1.06     6.32     2.08P   11.17R    4.50  
Torquay               7    6   -5      -2.73    22.57    -3.78    57.24    10.13    -8.15     0.18     1.48     8.81     3.11P    7.48R    2.85  
Cheltenham            7    6   -6      -3.08    19.80    -5.15    58.79    10.28    -7.03     0.26     2.04    11.52     4.21P    5.92R    2.24  
Hartlepool            7    5   -5      -5.19     7.27    -5.97    58.83    10.57    -3.78     0.39     2.48    12.39     5.31P    5.90R    2.30  
Northampton           7    4   -4      -5.63     5.43    -4.13    53.55    10.22   -10.07     0.07     0.74     4.93     1.68P   13.63R    5.86  
York                  7    4   -6      -4.31    10.29    -4.25    45.56     9.53   -23.25     0.00     0.08     0.62     0.16P   38.66R   21.23  
Accrington_Stanley    7    1  -10      -5.99     2.39    -5.89    43.61     9.76   -26.64     0.00     0.04     0.46     0.11P   47.49R   28.66  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 17 September 2013, Aldershot 3 3 Barnet; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Nuneaton          9   23   +9      11.33    99.77     9.90    75.23     9.71    11.56     7.17    43.81    12.77P    0.10R    0.01  
Cambridge_Utd     9   21  +11       6.77    95.40     8.06    78.80     9.70    22.04    14.00    59.50    23.97P    0.03R    0.00  
Kidderminster     9   18   +5       1.62    65.00    -1.49    81.43     9.71    24.94    21.23    69.71    34.36P    0.01R    0.00  
Lincoln_City      9   17   +4       4.55    86.86     3.83    68.03     9.70     4.95     1.75    19.03     4.96P    0.77R    0.06  
Barnet            9   16   +7      -0.81    41.20    -0.28    82.76    10.13    32.39    27.65    73.92    42.41P    0.02R    0.00  
Halifax           9   16   +2       5.37    89.74     4.94    61.82    10.86    -7.29     0.81     9.18     2.07P    5.57R    0.96  
Alfreton_Town     9   16   +2       4.50    85.96     3.47    63.67     9.89    -3.76     0.70    10.16     2.10P    2.69R    0.35  
Forest_Green      9   15   +8       0.00    49.60     3.73    73.13     9.77    19.45     5.67    37.73    13.66P    0.20R    0.01  
Salisbury         9   14   +2       2.69    74.58     3.56    56.59    10.35   -10.34     0.22     3.43     0.73P   12.10R    2.28  
Grimsby           9   14   -1      -0.35    46.66    -4.06    73.49     9.60    12.53     5.26    37.57    13.69P    0.15R    0.01  
Luton             9   13   +4      -1.17    38.84     1.25    74.05     9.64    19.85     6.06    41.25    15.68P    0.15R    0.01  
Southport         9   13   -3       2.15    70.29    -0.57    57.75     9.81   -13.76     0.14     3.36     0.63P    9.12R    1.36  
Welling           9   12   +3       1.25    62.60     5.79    59.36    10.80    -3.28     0.48     6.24     1.49P    8.40R    1.52  
Braintree_Town    9   12   +0       1.27    63.24     2.34    60.84     9.76    -3.10     0.32     5.97     1.20P    4.65R    0.61  
Wrexham           9   11   -1      -4.74    12.21    -6.38    71.88     9.60    14.56     3.91    32.35    12.07P    0.21R    0.01  
Hereford          9   11   -1      -3.10    23.39    -3.70    65.32     9.79     4.72     1.12    13.29     3.84P    1.66R    0.15  
Tamworth          9    9   -5      -0.77    43.78    -1.13    50.30     9.35   -19.64     0.01     0.49     0.10P   26.66R    6.40  
Woking            9    8   -4      -3.37    21.24    -2.09    50.08     9.71   -19.12     0.03     0.62     0.12P   28.07R    6.56  
Gateshead         9    7   -7      -3.29    21.23    -3.76    53.81     9.67   -13.19     0.03     1.28     0.23P   16.39R    3.41  
Chester           9    7   -9      -1.44    37.12    -2.30    41.94     9.97   -34.43     0.00     0.09     0.00P   62.31R   28.51  
Dartford          9    7   -9      -3.73    17.71    -6.56    50.26     9.48   -20.44     0.01     0.49     0.08P   27.13R    6.31  
Aldershot         9    4   +4      -2.17    29.23    -1.78    70.56     9.91    28.12     3.41    29.88    13.67P    0.52R    0.03  
Macclesfield      9    3   -6      -8.75     1.00    -5.22    51.04     9.60    -9.83     0.02     0.65     0.15P   23.25R    5.40  
Hyde_United       9    2  -15      -6.28     3.60    -7.54    39.86     9.33   -36.93     0.00     0.01     0.00P   69.84R   36.06  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10