Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 16 September 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 16 September 2013, Swansea 2 2 Liverpool; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool         4   10   +3       3.37    90.21     1.40    69.04     8.99    21.37    10.89    24.95    40.58    56.44    83.16     0.01R    0.00  
Arsenal           4    9   +3       1.46    67.98    -0.12    70.97     9.06    26.69    16.32    33.08    50.22    65.70    87.88     0.00R    0.00  
Tottenham         4    9   +3       1.95    75.44     0.70    65.11     9.04    17.06     5.22    13.77    25.14    38.91    70.04     0.07R    0.00  
Man_City          4    7   +5      -1.54    25.98     0.41    71.57     8.94    31.93    18.04    36.87    53.92    68.84    89.71     0.01R    0.00  
Man_Utd           4    7   +4      -0.71    39.31     0.29    76.00     8.79    39.00    35.66    57.98    73.33    84.28    95.71     0.00R    0.00  
Chelsea           4    7   +2      -0.02    50.30    -0.38    69.91     8.98    26.15    12.65    28.84    45.61    61.47    86.06     0.01R    0.00  
Stoke             4    7   +1       2.36    83.47     1.94    47.99     8.44    -5.29     0.02     0.15     0.52     1.40     7.00     6.47R    1.00  
Newcastle         4    7   -2       2.29    81.80    -0.72    47.44     8.82   -11.54     0.05     0.17     0.57     1.53     6.93     8.99R    1.69  
Everton           4    6   +1      -0.34    44.56    -0.28    58.29     8.88     9.49     0.99     3.34     7.64    14.87    39.63     0.55R    0.05  
West_Ham          4    5   +1      -0.58    42.87     0.74    45.76     8.68    -6.93     0.02     0.13     0.34     0.98     4.78    11.37R    2.21  
Southampton       4    5   +0      -0.40    46.19     0.03    44.49     8.71   -10.53     0.01     0.08     0.28     0.74     3.85    14.64R    3.12  
Cardiff           4    5   -1       0.83    65.22     0.76    41.14     9.14   -16.81     0.01     0.05     0.15     0.36     2.13    27.32R    8.01  
Swansea           4    4   -2       0.13    55.34     0.24    47.36     8.86    -6.39     0.04     0.21     0.54     1.40     6.95     8.96R    1.62  
Fulham            4    4   -2      -1.05    36.52    -1.43    46.40     8.88    -8.14     0.05     0.19     0.50     1.26     5.79    10.64R    2.09  
Norwich           4    4   -2      -0.69    41.45    -0.87    41.66     8.59   -15.57     0.00     0.02     0.12     0.31     1.81    23.65R    5.86  
Hull              4    4   -3       0.61    63.25     0.27    34.44     8.35   -25.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.27    56.24R   23.76  
Aston_Villa       4    3   -1      -0.69    39.90     1.91    43.80     8.96    -9.76     0.01     0.08     0.23     0.63     3.54    17.33R    4.13  
Crystal_Palace    4    3   -2      -0.12    49.95     1.97    32.59     8.56   -28.58     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.19    64.23R   33.06  
West_Brom         4    2   -3      -3.15    11.78    -2.60    43.64     8.89   -10.45     0.02     0.07     0.24     0.66     3.43    17.55R    4.16  
Sunderland        4    1   -5      -3.94     6.18    -4.28    39.48     8.68   -16.53     0.00     0.02     0.07     0.17     1.14    31.95R    9.22  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 15 September 2013, Reading 0 0 Brighton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Blackpool        6   16   +6       6.23    97.24     3.66    77.00    10.59    15.39    11.67    22.89    59.57    30.96P    0.11R    0.01  
QPR              6   16   +5       5.94    96.56     2.37    81.44    10.99    20.74    22.56    37.71    73.64    47.57P    0.05R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest    6   13   +5       4.30    90.02     4.32    72.22    10.58    11.96     5.25    12.03    42.06    18.80P    0.42R    0.03  
Leicester        6   13   +4       3.41    83.98     2.01    79.63    10.51    21.78    16.88    31.18    69.14    41.79P    0.04R    0.00  
Burnley          6   11   +4       1.85    71.02     2.54    69.66    10.69     9.90     3.55     8.30    33.08    13.86P    0.92R    0.08  
Leeds_United     6   11   +2       3.42    85.04     2.87    66.08    10.61     2.58     1.58     4.25    22.03     7.86P    1.90R    0.21  
Derby            6   10   +4       1.40    66.12     3.38    66.98    10.71     7.20     2.04     5.32    25.19     9.68P    1.65R    0.20  
Watford          6    9   +5      -0.67    41.71     2.69    75.40    10.94    23.03    10.03    20.15    55.49    29.84P    0.23R    0.02  
Reading          6    9   +1      -0.60    42.62    -1.10    74.25    11.32    16.90     8.68    17.87    50.41    27.03P    0.44R    0.05  
Bournemouth      6    9   -7       3.34    84.45    -2.62    48.73    10.73   -32.02     0.02     0.11     1.29     0.26P   35.76R   11.31  
Blackburn        6    8   +3      -1.03    38.82     1.75    66.25    10.79     8.16     1.93     4.99    23.50     9.34P    2.02R    0.19  
Huddersfield     6    8   +3      -0.12    49.87     3.03    56.05    10.31    -7.03     0.16     0.51     4.70     1.27P   11.58R    2.14  
Wigan            6    8   +2      -2.63    22.33    -1.74    74.36    11.61    19.90     9.63    18.99    51.20    28.69P    0.49R    0.05  
Brighton         6    8   +1      -1.10    37.88    -0.30    70.44    10.47    12.47     3.75     8.82    35.90    16.19P    0.66R    0.06  
Ipswich          6    7   +2      -0.55    44.58     2.94    58.95    10.56    -2.15     0.36     1.06     8.10     2.46P    7.74R    1.30  
Middlesbrough    6    6   -2      -1.31    35.48    -0.60    58.56    10.58    -5.25     0.30     0.92     7.51     2.17P    8.62R    1.53  
Charlton         5    5   -1      -2.03    26.69    -1.23    61.71    10.78     0.08     0.63     1.89    12.70     4.35P    5.19R    0.79  
Doncaster        5    5   -1      -0.75    42.33     0.67    50.33    10.86   -16.68     0.06     0.19     1.99     0.47P   28.39R    8.03  
Sheff_Wed        6    4   -2      -3.69    12.73    -1.31    51.68    10.43   -12.46     0.06     0.23     2.02     0.58P   23.12R    5.46  
Birmingham       6    4   -3      -4.02    11.04    -2.77    60.77    10.71     0.12     0.50     1.53    10.87     3.77P    5.95R    1.04  
Yeovil           6    4   -6      -1.38    35.54    -1.57    39.43    10.07   -37.30     0.00     0.01     0.11     0.02P   69.73R   37.77  
Barnsley         6    4   -8      -1.86    29.76    -4.09    46.58    10.20   -27.97     0.01     0.03     0.56     0.11P   42.16R   13.87  
Bolton           6    2   -8      -5.57     3.91    -7.04    59.24    10.80    -4.36     0.33     1.01     8.54     2.84P    8.49R    1.56  
Millwall         6    2   -9      -5.35     4.11    -7.84    45.81    10.03   -24.99     0.01     0.03     0.43     0.09P   44.34R   14.29  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 15 September 2013, Coventry 2 1 Gillingham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient    6   18  +12       7.31    98.91     8.21    77.75    10.98    19.07     4.99    15.19    62.89    25.07P    0.23R    0.00  
Peterborough     7   16  +10       2.42    73.62     3.28    91.59    11.19    47.89    35.28    63.35    93.42    73.10P    0.01R    0.00  
Wolverhampton    6   16   +9       4.37    91.56     3.43    94.40    11.12    47.39    46.50    71.94    95.89    79.89P    0.00R    0.00  
Rotherham        7   15   +5       6.10    94.22     6.30    60.58    11.22   -10.23     0.18     0.92    11.80     2.60P   10.73R    1.52  
Preston          7   13   +7       2.70    76.55     6.04    73.33    10.80    17.25     2.04     7.69    47.72    16.77P    0.62R    0.03  
MK_Dons          7   13   +4       1.34    63.75     0.81    78.83    10.60    22.74     5.16    16.65    67.83    30.96P    0.13R    0.01  
Bradford         7   12   +9       2.87    77.53     9.85    57.11    11.17    -5.64     0.09     0.48     7.44     1.68P   16.75R    2.72  
Brentford        7   12   +0       0.73    57.28    -2.55    68.92    10.69     4.84     0.86     3.45    31.04     9.70P    1.89R    0.12  
Crawley_Town     7   11   +2       1.98    71.71     3.50    63.45    10.87    -0.55     0.22     1.23    16.61     4.06P    5.96R    0.62  
Walsall          6   10   +2       1.13    62.80     1.05    66.07    10.92     3.18     0.58     2.19    22.88     6.34P    3.69R    0.32  
Colchester       7    9   -1       0.27    53.99     0.44    54.07    10.28   -14.97     0.02     0.12     3.15     0.60P   22.92R    3.66  
Swindon          7    8   +2      -3.30    17.87    -0.62    75.90    10.63    24.10     2.87    10.70    58.20    25.62P    0.38R    0.03  
Shrewsbury       6    7   -1       0.20    53.89     1.19    57.70    10.61    -7.92     0.06     0.27     6.57     1.27P   14.65R    2.10  
Port_Vale        7    7   -4      -0.85    42.45    -0.95    50.17    10.93   -22.76     0.01     0.09     2.05     0.40P   37.68R    9.50  
Oldham           7    6   -2      -2.25    27.13     0.46    51.96    10.43   -14.52     0.01     0.06     2.27     0.42P   29.59R    6.08  
Stevenage        7    5   -5      -3.16    19.29    -2.82    51.91    10.33   -15.76     0.01     0.05     1.94     0.44P   29.74R    6.18  
Tranmere         7    5   -8      -4.11    13.55    -7.11    54.05    10.46   -15.77     0.02     0.08     3.35     0.70P   23.48R    4.20  
Crewe            7    5  -10      -1.61    34.05    -4.59    46.22    10.29   -32.03     0.00     0.01     0.58     0.10P   52.33R   16.88  
Carlisle         7    5  -12      -2.29    27.76    -8.03    43.66    10.00   -39.16     0.00     0.00     0.24     0.03P   62.66R   24.19  
Coventry         7    4   +7       1.79    68.04     2.81    65.60    11.03    19.57     0.50     2.40    23.38     7.92P    3.90R    0.36  
Sheff_Utd        7    4   -7      -6.82     2.94    -8.83    61.80    10.60    -0.74     0.13     0.69    12.57     3.72P    7.17R    0.84  
Bristol_City     6    3   -5      -4.82     7.46    -4.03    64.12    12.11     4.34     0.45     2.11    21.30     6.98P    7.52R    1.10  
Gillingham       7    3   -7      -3.66    13.66    -1.88    46.58    10.76   -23.33     0.00     0.02     0.88     0.16P   49.89R   16.29  
Notts_County     6    1   -7      -6.63     1.54    -5.97    56.37    11.08    -6.99     0.04     0.28     6.00     1.47P   18.08R    3.27  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 September 2013, Burton_Albion 1 2 Portsmouth; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield          7   19  +10       7.06    98.20     6.49    86.62    10.10    30.97    42.38    73.75    93.04    79.43P    0.00R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd            7   15   +8       4.98    90.92     7.45    76.53    10.30    20.27    10.95    35.86    69.91    44.29P    0.07R    0.01  
Fleetwood_Town        7   15   +6       4.65    89.74     4.83    69.15    10.35     6.91     3.19    14.12    41.11    19.84P    0.55R    0.16  
Exeter                7   14   +3       3.03    79.71     0.95    71.16    10.38     8.61     4.46    18.83    49.07    26.11P    0.35R    0.09  
Wycombe               7   13   +4       3.13    80.43     3.50    69.30    10.31     8.28     2.99    14.04    42.17    20.49P    0.55R    0.17  
Morecambe             7   13   +2       3.72    84.98     2.56    66.91    10.25     2.77     1.84     9.42    32.87    14.35P    1.06R    0.32  
AFC_Wimbledon         7   13   +2       5.14    92.29     4.68    60.98    10.28    -6.91     0.55     3.44    15.55     5.45P    3.87R    1.31  
Mansfield             7   12   +3       3.58    83.69     4.79    60.22    10.68    -5.05     0.65     3.55    15.38     5.83P    4.85R    1.72  
Rochdale              7   11   +3       0.94    60.70     2.35    69.65    10.54    10.71     3.45    15.91    44.35    22.76P    0.61R    0.17  
Burton_Albion         7   11   +0       1.95    70.75     0.92    63.59    10.34    -1.93     0.82     5.47    23.00     8.99P    2.37R    0.79  
Scunthorpe            7   10   +2      -1.97    29.34    -1.66    72.85    10.93    16.00     7.03    25.15    56.30    34.88P    0.35R    0.08  
Newport_County        7    9   +1       1.28    64.86     4.13    46.35    10.11   -25.85     0.01     0.16     1.25     0.34P   37.44R   20.43  
Portsmouth            7    9   -1      -2.86    22.36    -4.42    77.50    10.98    22.67    14.07    40.67    71.86    51.00P    0.15R    0.05  
Dag_&_Red             7    9   -1      -0.55    44.37    -0.94    56.83    10.03    -9.36     0.15     1.28     7.98     2.60P    7.93R    3.01  
Southend              7    9   -1      -1.18    37.56    -1.93    67.92    10.33     7.21     2.14    11.63    37.47    18.59P    0.77R    0.24  
Plymouth              7    9   -3       0.33    54.84    -1.84    56.78     9.94   -10.44     0.14     1.22     7.70     2.46P    7.84R    2.97  
Bury                  7    7   +1      -3.37    18.36    -0.19    69.40    11.28    14.60     4.16    17.32    44.69    25.44P    1.03R    0.36  
Bristol_Rovers        7    7   -3      -2.08    28.81    -2.27    54.92    10.16   -11.61     0.09     0.92     6.25     2.00P   11.14R    4.55  
Torquay               7    6   -5      -2.76    22.34    -3.81    57.31    10.16    -8.10     0.18     1.56     8.95     3.08P    7.39R    3.01  
Cheltenham            7    6   -6      -3.13    19.30    -5.24    59.06    10.31    -6.59     0.28     2.23    12.27     4.60P    5.70R    2.10  
Hartlepool            7    5   -5      -5.18     7.46    -5.95    58.86    10.57    -3.68     0.38     2.60    12.48     5.38P    5.88R    2.13  
Northampton           7    4   -4      -5.68     5.29    -4.21    53.77    10.28    -9.72     0.08     0.80     5.22     1.82P   13.34R    5.67  
York                  7    4   -6      -4.32    10.42    -4.28    45.70     9.52   -23.00     0.01     0.05     0.69     0.15P   38.61R   21.10  
Accrington_Stanley    7    1  -10      -5.98     2.50    -5.91    43.50     9.78   -26.77     0.00     0.02     0.47     0.11P   48.14R   29.55  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 September 2013, Barnet 1 1 Lincoln_City; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd     8   20  +11       7.07    97.47     7.93    79.07     9.90    22.00    15.29    60.67    25.12P    0.04R    0.00  
Nuneaton          8   20   +8      10.05    99.64     9.32    73.70     9.90    10.92     5.89    38.68    11.09P    0.20R    0.01  
Forest_Green      8   15  +11       0.97    59.50     6.17    76.12     9.91    25.00     9.97    50.43    20.17P    0.07R    0.00  
Barnet            8   15   +7      -0.63    42.10    -0.34    82.19    10.28    30.56    26.12    72.35    40.63P    0.02R    0.00  
Alfreton_Town     8   15   +2       4.89    89.75     3.42    64.86    10.16    -2.14     1.08    12.90     2.87P    2.22R    0.25  
Kidderminster     8   15   +2       0.51    54.34    -3.63    78.78     9.88    20.40    14.59    59.51    26.80P    0.03R    0.00  
Grimsby           8   14   +3       0.60    56.00    -0.66    77.63     9.76    20.64    11.83    55.46    23.84P    0.04R    0.00  
Lincoln_City      8   14   +3       3.49    82.19     3.63    66.73     9.88     4.53     1.41    16.48     4.10P    1.22R    0.11  
Salisbury         8   13   +2       3.04    78.49     3.47    56.98    10.81   -10.19     0.34     4.37     1.07P   11.95R    2.09  
Halifax           8   13   -2       4.57    88.04     2.32    55.59    10.87   -18.71     0.18     3.49     0.64P   15.92R    3.30  
Southport         8   13   -2       2.84    76.54    -0.67    58.91     9.89   -12.95     0.24     4.30     0.82P    7.54R    1.13  
Hereford          8   11   +0      -2.03    30.53    -3.11    67.23     9.99     6.76     1.82    18.36     5.48P    1.25R    0.08  
Braintree_Town    8   11   +0       1.59    67.15     2.22    61.16     9.92    -2.90     0.42     6.73     1.49P    4.33R    0.52  
Luton             8   10   +1      -1.76    32.52    -0.27    71.77     9.76    15.92     4.02    32.35    11.26P    0.30R    0.01  
Welling           8    9   +0       0.17    53.40     3.49    54.59    10.81   -10.65     0.13     2.69     0.63P   17.26R    3.78  
Tamworth          8    9   -2      -0.02    51.21     0.88    52.85     9.56   -14.20     0.04     1.00     0.21P   18.54R    3.72  
Wrexham           8    8   -4      -6.06     5.48    -8.83    68.43     9.84     8.91     2.09    21.39     7.46P    0.70R    0.06  
Gateshead         8    7   -4      -2.43    27.18    -1.62    57.26     9.89    -6.60     0.11     3.14     0.65P    9.54R    1.52  
Dartford          8    7   -6      -3.41    18.86    -5.18    52.20     9.60   -16.10     0.03     0.85     0.16P   20.93R    4.16  
Woking            8    5   -6      -4.88     9.74    -3.93    47.12     9.86   -23.18     0.00     0.30     0.05P   40.24R   11.80  
Chester           8    4  -10      -2.91    21.04    -3.16    39.11    10.07   -36.96     0.00     0.06     0.01P   71.47R   39.88  
Aldershot         8    3   +4      -1.44    34.76    -1.20    71.40    10.07    28.42     4.33    33.15    15.18P    0.48R    0.03  
Macclesfield      8    3   -5      -7.56     1.59    -4.56    53.28     9.87    -7.30     0.04     1.24     0.28P   17.43R    3.72  
Hyde_United       8    2  -13      -4.83     7.21    -5.67    42.75     9.77   -32.17     0.00     0.09     0.01P   58.27R   23.83  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10