Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 15 September 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 15 September 2013, Southampton 0 0 West_Ham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal           4    9   +3       1.46    67.96    -0.11    71.08     9.02    26.76    16.02    33.40    49.83    65.65    88.29     0.02R    0.00  
Tottenham         4    9   +3       1.96    75.58     0.73    65.07     9.11    16.94     5.21    13.58    24.70    38.25    69.89     0.08R    0.01  
Liverpool         3    9   +3       4.02    95.23     1.80    69.74     9.18    21.71    12.17    27.19    43.54    59.19    84.62     0.02R    0.00  
Man_City          4    7   +5      -1.53    26.25     0.45    71.43     8.91    31.69    17.26    35.48    52.53    67.98    89.54     0.01R    0.00  
Man_Utd           4    7   +4      -0.68    39.65     0.31    76.13     8.78    39.12    35.46    57.40    73.47    84.35    95.88     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea           4    7   +2      -0.02    50.39    -0.35    69.88     8.99    26.08    12.56    28.38    44.91    61.02    85.69     0.01R    0.00  
Stoke             4    7   +1       2.36    83.32     1.94    48.00     8.37    -5.26     0.04     0.17     0.54     1.39     6.86     6.34R    0.89  
Newcastle         4    7   -2       2.30    81.85    -0.73    47.61     8.85   -11.17     0.05     0.24     0.67     1.58     7.17     8.45R    1.51  
Everton           4    6   +1      -0.37    44.03    -0.32    58.27     8.84     9.44     1.08     3.39     7.49    14.29    39.01     0.48R    0.05  
West_Ham          4    5   +1      -0.60    42.67     0.71    45.85     8.65    -6.73     0.03     0.12     0.37     0.98     4.88    10.87R    2.17  
Southampton       4    5   +0      -0.41    45.74     0.02    44.37     8.66   -10.64     0.01     0.08     0.23     0.64     3.75    14.62R    3.11  
Cardiff           4    5   -1       0.88    66.22     0.81    40.88     8.97   -17.03     0.01     0.04     0.13     0.33     1.83    27.78R    7.86  
Fulham            4    4   -2      -1.07    36.05    -1.45    46.35     8.81    -8.06     0.03     0.15     0.43     1.08     5.73    10.50R    2.05  
Norwich           4    4   -2      -0.66    42.23    -0.84    41.42     8.69   -15.97     0.00     0.03     0.10     0.28     1.82    24.68R    6.52  
Hull              4    4   -3       0.58    62.85     0.20    34.42     8.27   -25.05     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.02     0.22    56.27R   23.90  
Aston_Villa       4    3   -1      -0.67    40.13     1.91    43.85     8.91    -9.61     0.01     0.04     0.19     0.61     3.39    16.85R    4.00  
Crystal_Palace    4    3   -2      -0.13    49.76     1.96    32.61     8.46   -28.36     0.01     0.01     0.01     0.03     0.19    64.42R   33.19  
Swansea           3    3   -2       0.18    54.59    -0.20    47.29     8.98    -6.76     0.04     0.23     0.61     1.55     7.01     9.25R    1.81  
West_Brom         4    2   -3      -3.15    11.70    -2.63    43.55     8.81   -10.55     0.01     0.07     0.20     0.63     3.16    17.57R    4.08  
Sunderland        4    1   -5      -3.89     6.08    -4.24    39.43     8.55   -16.54     0.00     0.02     0.05     0.15     1.05    31.78R    8.86  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 15 September 2013, Reading 0 0 Brighton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Blackpool        6   16   +6       6.17    97.03     3.54    77.34    10.66    15.90    11.67    23.37    60.29    31.63P    0.09R    0.01  
QPR              6   16   +5       5.88    96.64     2.31    81.70    10.97    21.04    22.98    38.41    74.24    48.26P    0.06R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest    6   13   +5       4.31    90.19     4.33    72.19    10.56    11.87     5.02    11.54    41.55    18.00P    0.42R    0.04  
Leicester        6   13   +4       3.41    83.94     1.99    79.84    10.56    22.10    17.36    31.71    69.95    42.55P    0.07R    0.01  
Burnley          6   11   +4       1.93    72.17     2.65    69.43    10.71     9.51     3.33     7.90    32.45    13.51P    0.94R    0.08  
Leeds_United     6   11   +2       3.42    85.08     2.84    66.35    10.63     2.95     1.66     4.43    22.62     8.05P    1.93R    0.24  
Derby            6   10   +4       1.41    66.12     3.41    66.75    10.75     6.94     1.98     5.12    24.41     9.23P    1.75R    0.16  
Watford          6    9   +5      -0.64    42.12     2.70    75.44    11.04    23.10    10.31    20.43    55.28    30.11P    0.26R    0.03  
Reading          6    9   +1      -0.65    42.32    -1.14    74.35    11.36    17.11     8.70    17.78    50.68    26.94P    0.47R    0.04  
Bournemouth      6    9   -7       3.31    84.41    -2.62    48.77    10.78   -32.09     0.03     0.09     1.29     0.26P   35.33R   10.91  
Blackburn        6    8   +3      -1.07    38.27     1.70    66.21    10.61     8.21     1.69     4.52    22.90     8.84P    1.81R    0.21  
Huddersfield     6    8   +3      -0.08    50.13     3.11    55.59    10.35    -7.75     0.13     0.42     4.27     1.09P   12.67R    2.31  
Wigan            6    8   +2      -2.67    21.66    -1.79    74.42    11.51    19.97     9.26    18.74    51.50    28.54P    0.45R    0.03  
Brighton         6    8   +1      -1.07    37.95    -0.30    70.49    10.45    12.56     3.49     8.55    35.97    16.12P    0.61R    0.04  
Ipswich          6    7   +2      -0.56    44.41     2.95    59.00    10.58    -2.03     0.38     1.09     8.26     2.49P    7.70R    1.24  
Middlesbrough    6    6   -2      -1.25    36.30    -0.56    58.59    10.62    -5.21     0.32     0.86     7.49     2.24P    8.64R    1.46  
Charlton         5    5   -1      -2.01    26.70    -1.20    61.63    10.72     0.02     0.71     1.89    12.32     4.19P    4.84R    0.72  
Doncaster        5    5   -1      -0.71    42.98     0.74    50.05    10.94   -17.13     0.06     0.20     2.00     0.54P   29.58R    8.37  
Sheff_Wed        6    4   -2      -3.71    12.53    -1.33    51.70    10.32   -12.42     0.05     0.15     1.92     0.48P   22.40R    5.00  
Birmingham       6    4   -3      -4.02    11.01    -2.76    60.86    10.70     0.23     0.54     1.59    11.10     3.83P    5.83R    0.89  
Yeovil           6    4   -6      -1.34    35.90    -1.55    39.16    10.06   -37.67     0.00     0.01     0.12     0.02P   70.55R   38.28  
Barnsley         6    4   -8      -1.89    29.48    -4.14    46.71    10.34   -27.74     0.01     0.04     0.64     0.12P   41.21R   14.02  
Bolton           6    2   -8      -5.53     4.21    -7.00    59.15    10.83    -4.54     0.32     1.13     8.32     2.84P    8.35R    1.70  
Millwall         6    2   -9      -5.38     4.11    -7.89    45.82    10.07   -24.93     0.01     0.03     0.43     0.13P   44.05R   14.20  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 15 September 2013, Coventry 2 1 Gillingham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient    6   18  +12       7.35    98.90     8.25    77.79    10.99    19.12     4.76    15.10    63.06    25.14P    0.19R    0.01  
Peterborough     7   16  +10       2.37    72.93     3.20    91.60    11.05    47.81    34.53    63.41    93.75    73.32P    0.01R    0.00  
Wolverhampton    6   16   +9       4.34    91.40     3.38    94.75    11.11    48.09    47.71    73.11    96.16    80.63P    0.00R    0.00  
Rotherham        7   15   +5       6.11    94.21     6.32    60.49    11.19   -10.34     0.21     0.94    11.42     2.44P   10.76R    1.43  
Preston          7   13   +7       2.60    75.65     5.90    73.69    10.69    17.75     2.15     7.86    49.11    17.33P    0.64R    0.05  
MK_Dons          7   13   +4       1.38    64.18     0.84    78.71    10.64    22.50     5.18    16.15    67.34    30.55P    0.13R    0.01  
Bradford         7   12   +9       2.84    77.54     9.79    57.27    10.98    -5.33     0.10     0.42     7.21     1.57P   15.98R    2.34  
Brentford        7   12   +0       0.77    57.51    -2.49    68.67    10.59     4.47     0.74     3.25    30.18     9.10P    1.93R    0.13  
Crawley_Town     7   11   +2       1.95    71.23     3.48    63.31    10.81    -0.72     0.21     1.11    16.27     3.85P    6.01R    0.69  
Walsall          6   10   +2       1.15    62.97     1.08    66.00    10.92     3.08     0.51     2.07    23.03     6.16P    3.79R    0.33  
Colchester       7    9   -1       0.26    53.63     0.44    54.14    10.18   -14.94     0.01     0.11     3.21     0.59P   22.51R    3.52  
Swindon          7    8   +2      -3.28    17.91    -0.56    75.90    10.61    24.08     2.69    10.52    58.05    25.44P    0.33R    0.02  
Shrewsbury       6    7   -1       0.24    54.51     1.26    57.59    10.60    -8.13     0.04     0.27     6.42     1.37P   14.91R    2.22  
Port_Vale        7    7   -4      -0.85    42.61    -0.94    50.24    11.05   -22.70     0.03     0.13     2.19     0.46P   37.44R    9.60  
Oldham           7    6   -2      -2.24    27.22     0.45    52.02    10.40   -14.45     0.00     0.07     2.27     0.43P   29.46R    6.00  
Stevenage        7    5   -5      -3.18    19.04    -2.84    51.97    10.25   -15.60     0.01     0.06     2.00     0.34P   29.35R    5.98  
Tranmere         7    5   -8      -4.14    13.17    -7.13    54.14    10.43   -15.60     0.01     0.09     3.32     0.68P   23.11R    4.05  
Crewe            7    5  -10      -1.59    34.29    -4.55    46.07    10.20   -32.36     0.00     0.01     0.49     0.06P   53.18R   17.26  
Carlisle         7    5  -12      -2.30    27.39    -8.06    43.56    10.04   -39.36     0.00     0.00     0.26     0.05P   63.29R   24.39  
Coventry         7    4   +7       1.77    67.54     2.80    65.87    11.01    19.95     0.49     2.35    24.62     8.59P    3.69R    0.34  
Sheff_Utd        7    4   -7      -6.76     3.07    -8.74    61.40    10.57    -1.35     0.12     0.66    11.79     3.55P    7.83R    0.87  
Bristol_City     6    3   -5      -4.80     7.40    -4.01    64.31    11.96     4.64     0.46     2.05    21.18     6.72P    6.91R    0.99  
Gillingham       7    3   -7      -3.66    13.75    -1.87    46.63    10.86   -23.30     0.00     0.02     0.90     0.17P   49.91R   16.40  
Notts_County     6    1   -7      -6.64     1.54    -5.99    56.15    10.99    -7.31     0.04     0.24     5.78     1.46P   18.63R    3.38  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 September 2013, Burton_Albion 1 2 Portsmouth; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield          7   19  +10       7.05    98.26     6.46    86.66    10.19    31.01    42.30    73.56    92.96    79.34P    0.00R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd            7   15   +8       5.02    91.15     7.50    76.22    10.39    19.82    10.57    34.79    68.61    43.12P    0.08R    0.03  
Fleetwood_Town        7   15   +6       4.62    89.45     4.78    69.20    10.34     7.01     3.01    14.11    41.73    20.05P    0.58R    0.17  
Exeter                7   14   +3       3.06    79.98     0.97    71.14    10.33     8.53     4.27    18.51    48.81    25.74P    0.32R    0.07  
Wycombe               7   13   +4       3.16    80.71     3.55    69.31    10.38     8.26     3.14    14.57    41.99    20.75P    0.57R    0.17  
Morecambe             7   13   +2       3.64    84.47     2.47    67.30    10.38     3.32     2.04    10.37    34.49    15.40P    1.01R    0.27  
AFC_Wimbledon         7   13   +2       5.16    92.34     4.70    61.07    10.25    -6.78     0.45     3.27    15.94     5.45P    3.83R    1.38  
Mansfield             7   12   +3       3.45    82.84     4.58    60.68    10.78    -4.33     0.68     3.87    16.64     6.41P    4.48R    1.64  
Rochdale              7   11   +3       0.91    60.27     2.29    69.86    10.50    11.10     3.52    16.02    44.75    23.18P    0.53R    0.17  
Burton_Albion         7   11   +0       1.95    70.74     0.94    63.40    10.41    -2.27     0.98     5.45    22.13     8.86P    2.53R    0.84  
Scunthorpe            7   10   +2      -2.00    28.89    -1.70    73.11    10.85    16.43     7.21    25.63    56.98    35.44P    0.28R    0.08  
Newport_County        7    9   +1       1.40    66.17     4.34    45.87    10.09   -26.71     0.02     0.15     1.16     0.32P   39.23R   21.93  
Portsmouth            7    9   -1      -2.88    22.49    -4.45    77.67    11.06    22.96    14.56    41.73    72.29    51.89P    0.14R    0.05  
Dag_&_Red             7    9   -1      -0.53    44.63    -0.91    56.71    10.05    -9.53     0.15     1.29     7.94     2.70P    7.92R    3.01  
Southend              7    9   -1      -1.16    37.86    -1.88    67.77    10.39     7.01     2.19    11.49    37.01    18.13P    0.90R    0.28  
Plymouth              7    9   -3       0.29    54.39    -1.89    56.97     9.80   -10.12     0.14     1.12     7.51     2.46P    7.40R    2.67  
Bury                  7    7   +1      -3.38    18.40    -0.20    69.29    11.12    14.50     3.83    16.31    44.04    24.55P    0.89R    0.31  
Bristol_Rovers        7    7   -3      -2.12    28.47    -2.33    55.18    10.12   -11.21     0.11     0.98     6.35     2.00P   10.28R    4.06  
Torquay               7    6   -5      -2.70    23.12    -3.75    57.10    10.06    -8.37     0.16     1.38     8.53     2.82P    7.49R    2.96  
Cheltenham            7    6   -6      -3.04    20.17    -5.09    58.70    10.25    -7.07     0.23     2.01    11.37     4.10P    6.01R    2.23  
Hartlepool            7    5   -5      -5.19     7.36    -5.96    58.68    10.69    -3.93     0.37     2.54    12.60     5.31P    6.33R    2.45  
Northampton           7    4   -4      -5.70     5.17    -4.24    53.80    10.22    -9.74     0.06     0.76     5.09     1.70P   13.11R    5.61  
York                  7    4   -6      -4.31    10.49    -4.25    45.56     9.55   -23.23     0.00     0.06     0.63     0.17P   38.63R   21.06  
Accrington_Stanley    7    1  -10      -6.03     2.42    -5.96    43.59     9.74   -26.65     0.00     0.02     0.44     0.12P   47.47R   28.57  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 September 2013, Barnet 1 1 Lincoln_City; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd     8   20  +11       7.08    97.38     7.93    79.18     9.84    22.15    15.55    61.55    25.60P    0.03R    0.00  
Nuneaton          8   20   +8       9.96    99.61     9.23    73.89     9.90    11.17     5.95    39.35    11.32P    0.15R    0.01  
Forest_Green      8   15  +11       1.04    60.18     6.28    75.88     9.88    24.58     9.72    49.19    19.77P    0.11R    0.00  
Barnet            8   15   +7      -0.64    41.97    -0.36    82.27    10.26    30.68    26.18    72.61    40.94P    0.02R    0.00  
Alfreton_Town     8   15   +2       4.88    89.63     3.42    64.61    10.17    -2.59     1.01    12.66     2.71P    2.40R    0.28  
Kidderminster     8   15   +2       0.62    55.82    -3.46    78.50     9.96    19.93    14.06    58.57    25.87P    0.04R    0.00  
Grimsby           8   14   +3       0.64    56.36    -0.60    77.60     9.79    20.60    11.95    55.39    24.06P    0.06R    0.00  
Lincoln_City      8   14   +3       3.47    81.97     3.62    66.80     9.89     4.59     1.46    16.70     4.16P    1.27R    0.12  
Salisbury         8   13   +2       3.02    78.53     3.45    56.94    10.69   -10.21     0.27     4.09     0.89P   12.16R    2.11  
Halifax           8   13   -2       4.50    87.56     2.19    55.67    10.95   -18.50     0.26     3.54     0.76P   16.00R    3.43  
Southport         8   13   -2       2.94    77.41    -0.53    58.77     9.90   -13.08     0.25     4.20     0.73P    7.78R    1.10  
Hereford          8   11   +0      -2.01    30.63    -3.09    67.38    10.08     6.89     1.91    19.15     5.68P    1.13R    0.09  
Braintree_Town    8   11   +0       1.51    66.63     2.10    61.33     9.88    -2.62     0.39     6.73     1.41P    4.50R    0.60  
Luton             8   10   +1      -1.81    32.12    -0.34    71.80     9.83    15.92     4.10    32.52    11.57P    0.38R    0.03  
Welling           8    9   +0       0.17    53.43     3.49    54.59    10.96   -10.66     0.18     2.95     0.64P   17.78R    3.95  
Tamworth          8    9   -2      -0.05    51.00     0.79    53.18     9.53   -13.72     0.03     1.11     0.17P   17.62R    3.46  
Wrexham           8    8   -4      -5.98     5.74    -8.72    68.33     9.85     8.72     2.05    21.05     7.50P    0.89R    0.07  
Gateshead         8    7   -4      -2.47    26.75    -1.67    57.27     9.92    -6.54     0.12     3.14     0.63P    9.62R    1.62  
Dartford          8    7   -6      -3.40    19.03    -5.19    52.22     9.72   -15.98     0.04     1.04     0.18P   20.83R    4.23  
Woking            8    5   -6      -4.88    10.00    -3.93    47.16     9.81   -23.05     0.01     0.33     0.04P   39.51R   11.54  
Chester           8    4  -10      -2.87    21.40    -3.11    38.91     9.94   -37.39     0.00     0.03     0.00P   72.32R   40.75  
Aldershot         8    3   +4      -1.43    34.93    -1.17    71.24    10.10    28.20     4.46    32.76    15.05P    0.50R    0.05  
Macclesfield      8    3   -5      -7.51     1.61    -4.48    53.19     9.76    -7.45     0.04     1.26     0.29P   17.76R    3.61  
Hyde_United       8    2  -13      -4.90     6.74    -5.82    43.07     9.79   -31.63     0.00     0.09     0.01P   57.12R   22.92  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10