Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 14 September 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 September 2013, Aston_Villa 1 2 Newcastle; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal           4    9   +3       1.46    68.03    -0.12    71.15     9.11    27.03    16.37    33.15    49.99    65.56    88.06     0.00R    0.00  
Tottenham         4    9   +3       1.92    75.02     0.68    65.28     8.97    17.34     5.08    13.56    24.84    38.90    70.56     0.05R    0.00  
Liverpool         3    9   +3       4.03    95.33     1.79    69.75     9.28    21.78    12.14    27.24    43.08    58.77    83.97     0.03R    0.00  
Man_City          4    7   +5      -1.55    25.95     0.40    71.59     8.93    32.00    17.90    36.19    53.19    68.54    89.56     0.01R    0.00  
Man_Utd           4    7   +4      -0.69    39.60     0.31    76.13     8.70    39.15    34.73    57.32    73.09    84.20    95.97     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea           4    7   +2      -0.02    50.37    -0.38    69.89     9.01    26.17    12.55    28.05    44.69    60.29    85.48     0.01R    0.00  
Stoke             4    7   +1       2.38    83.40     1.96    47.98     8.48    -5.29     0.04     0.20     0.58     1.41     6.74     6.55R    1.02  
Newcastle         4    7   -2       2.27    81.70    -0.73    47.51     8.87   -11.47     0.05     0.20     0.64     1.60     6.97     8.90R    1.61  
Everton           4    6   +1      -0.35    44.29    -0.27    58.19     8.84     9.38     0.95     3.23     7.25    13.89    38.12     0.51R    0.05  
Cardiff           4    5   -1       0.85    65.67     0.78    40.99     9.03   -17.04     0.01     0.05     0.12     0.35     2.01    27.48R    7.78  
West_Ham          3    4   +1      -0.37    45.41     0.58    45.83     8.94    -7.59     0.03     0.15     0.45     1.10     5.22    11.87R    2.42  
Southampton       3    4   +0       0.05    53.52     0.18    45.03     9.03   -10.48     0.03     0.13     0.40     1.00     4.83    14.13R    3.01  
Fulham            4    4   -2      -1.07    36.36    -1.46    46.55     8.73    -7.90     0.04     0.15     0.48     1.15     5.62     9.89R    1.81  
Norwich           4    4   -2      -0.66    42.11    -0.85    41.58     8.71   -15.74     0.01     0.03     0.09     0.24     1.80    24.18R    6.19  
Hull              4    4   -3       0.60    63.30     0.27    34.30     8.28   -25.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.23    56.88R   24.18  
Aston_Villa       4    3   -1      -0.69    39.70     1.93    43.86     8.92    -9.72     0.01     0.07     0.25     0.65     3.34    17.10R    4.03  
Crystal_Palace    4    3   -2      -0.15    49.29     1.93    32.60     8.50   -28.55     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.02     0.16    64.59R   32.78  
Swansea           3    3   -2       0.21    55.13    -0.13    47.26     9.05    -6.88     0.04     0.20     0.58     1.56     7.01     9.30R    1.88  
West_Brom         4    2   -3      -3.17    11.66    -2.66    43.94     8.88   -10.02     0.01     0.07     0.25     0.65     3.41    16.30R    3.83  
Sunderland        4    1   -5      -3.89     6.41    -4.21    39.28     8.58   -16.83     0.01     0.01     0.04     0.13     0.94    32.22R    9.42  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 September 2013, Bolton 0 1 Leeds_United; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Blackpool        6   16   +6       6.14    97.01     3.51    77.49    10.67    16.08    11.74    23.50    60.66    31.88P    0.11R    0.01  
QPR              6   16   +5       5.86    96.50     2.26    82.10    10.92    21.60    23.40    39.03    75.13    48.83P    0.03R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest    6   13   +5       4.31    90.19     4.33    72.31    10.59    11.96     5.16    11.49    41.75    18.31P    0.44R    0.04  
Leicester        6   13   +4       3.40    84.10     1.96    79.71    10.62    21.94    16.46    30.68    68.94    41.14P    0.07R    0.00  
Burnley          6   11   +4       1.91    71.85     2.63    69.55    10.73     9.68     3.24     7.75    32.80    13.40P    0.93R    0.08  
Leeds_United     6   11   +2       3.39    84.75     2.82    66.39    10.71     2.95     1.68     4.45    22.60     8.01P    1.98R    0.20  
Derby            6   10   +4       1.37    65.82     3.36    66.91    10.72     7.13     1.93     4.86    24.39     9.11P    1.75R    0.23  
Watford          6    9   +5      -0.61    42.53     2.79    75.23    11.03    22.72     9.26    19.26    54.04    28.68P    0.29R    0.03  
Bournemouth      6    9   -7       3.34    84.66    -2.60    48.68    10.62   -32.25     0.02     0.10     1.15     0.25P   35.79R   10.79  
Blackburn        6    8   +3      -1.06    38.58     1.73    66.31    10.79     8.24     1.81     4.61    23.40     9.17P    2.01R    0.22  
Huddersfield     6    8   +3      -0.10    50.08     3.07    55.99    10.36    -7.18     0.14     0.51     4.68     1.24P   11.90R    2.08  
Wigan            6    8   +2      -2.63    22.19    -1.73    74.24    11.57    19.64     9.13    18.16    50.32    27.87P    0.49R    0.05  
Reading          5    8   +1      -0.13    48.88    -0.95    75.07    11.74    17.66    10.08    19.98    52.53    29.28P    0.53R    0.05  
Ipswich          6    7   +2      -0.58    44.35     2.95    58.88    10.64    -2.25     0.34     1.03     7.98     2.40P    7.98R    1.38  
Brighton         5    7   +1      -0.88    38.81    -0.51    70.41    10.74    11.93     3.81     9.00    35.59    16.17P    0.77R    0.09  
Middlesbrough    6    6   -2      -1.30    35.62    -0.57    58.61    10.65    -5.26     0.26     0.93     7.47     2.29P    8.63R    1.53  
Charlton         5    5   -1      -1.97    27.19    -1.15    61.41    10.87    -0.37     0.61     1.89    12.37     4.17P    5.35R    0.84  
Doncaster        5    5   -1      -0.75    42.48     0.68    50.45    10.87   -16.64     0.04     0.14     1.98     0.50P   28.03R    7.77  
Sheff_Wed        6    4   -2      -3.72    12.53    -1.33    51.70    10.35   -12.53     0.05     0.17     2.04     0.54P   22.83R    5.11  
Birmingham       6    4   -3      -4.02    10.99    -2.77    60.82    10.63     0.18     0.46     1.36    10.53     3.63P    5.83R    0.87  
Yeovil           6    4   -6      -1.32    36.30    -1.47    38.93    10.07   -38.19     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.01P   71.28R   39.63  
Barnsley         6    4   -8      -1.92    29.15    -4.18    46.91    10.34   -27.61     0.01     0.04     0.64     0.12P   40.80R   13.32  
Bolton           6    2   -8      -5.53     4.28    -6.99    59.28    10.83    -4.39     0.36     1.05     8.47     2.92P    8.10R    1.47  
Millwall         6    2   -9      -5.36     4.09    -7.85    45.87    10.13   -25.03     0.01     0.02     0.43     0.09P   44.06R   14.21  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 September 2013, Bradford 2 2 Colchester; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient    6   18  +12       7.35    98.91     8.24    78.10    10.97    19.65     5.16    15.75    64.03    26.19P    0.20R    0.00  
Peterborough     7   16  +10       2.37    73.14     3.16    91.82    11.12    48.25    36.02    63.84    93.77    73.65P    0.01R    0.00  
Wolverhampton    6   16   +9       4.38    91.61     3.44    94.38    11.21    47.37    46.00    71.88    95.84    79.55P    0.00R    0.00  
Rotherham        7   15   +5       6.08    94.12     6.29    60.62    11.17   -10.11     0.20     0.95    11.86     2.60P   10.45R    1.37  
Preston          7   13   +7       2.70    76.87     6.03    73.44    10.63    17.36     1.80     7.43    48.25    16.72P    0.64R    0.04  
MK_Dons          7   13   +4       1.35    63.83     0.81    78.74    10.63    22.61     5.08    16.24    67.56    30.54P    0.17R    0.00  
Bradford         7   12   +9       2.88    77.77     9.86    57.10    10.93    -5.63     0.12     0.45     6.94     1.51P   16.21R    2.45  
Brentford        7   12   +0       0.72    57.00    -2.57    68.97    10.63     4.87     0.85     3.49    31.15     9.57P    1.74R    0.11  
Crawley_Town     7   11   +2       1.94    71.09     3.45    63.41    10.81    -0.61     0.21     1.20    16.75     3.89P    6.04R    0.56  
Walsall          6   10   +2       1.15    63.17     1.07    66.02    10.86     3.09     0.47     2.22    22.96     6.35P    3.60R    0.24  
Colchester       7    9   -1       0.24    53.75     0.42    54.17    10.32   -14.82     0.03     0.14     3.23     0.63P   22.82R    3.75  
Swindon          7    8   +2      -3.30    17.81    -0.59    75.89    10.59    24.05     2.70    10.45    58.04    25.31P    0.38R    0.01  
Shrewsbury       6    7   -1       0.20    54.14     1.21    57.68    10.65    -7.98     0.05     0.31     6.60     1.37P   14.51R    2.15  
Port_Vale        7    7   -4      -0.91    41.75    -1.05    50.41    11.06   -22.42     0.01     0.07     2.10     0.40P   37.08R    9.58  
Oldham           7    6   -2      -2.20    27.48     0.54    51.79    10.30   -14.83     0.00     0.06     2.05     0.40P   30.01R    6.28  
Stevenage        7    5   -5      -3.19    19.21    -2.85    51.77    10.23   -15.91     0.00     0.03     1.90     0.37P   30.49R    6.20  
Tranmere         7    5   -8      -4.10    13.46    -7.07    53.99    10.36   -15.91     0.01     0.06     3.10     0.63P   23.61R    4.25  
Crewe            7    5  -10      -1.66    33.61    -4.67    46.47    10.27   -31.67     0.00     0.01     0.60     0.11P   51.93R   16.49  
Carlisle         7    5  -12      -2.30    27.63    -8.03    43.71    10.06   -39.12     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.02P   62.58R   24.24  
Sheff_Utd        7    4   -7      -6.76     3.11    -8.74    61.41    10.60    -1.32     0.16     0.69    12.09     3.63P    7.74R    0.94  
Bristol_City     6    3   -5      -4.78     7.45    -3.97    64.09    12.22     4.26     0.58     2.26    21.31     7.05P    7.61R    1.23  
Gillingham       6    3   -6      -2.88    18.07    -1.92    47.22    11.06   -23.79     0.00     0.04     1.23     0.21P   47.96R   15.99  
Coventry         6    1   +6       0.80    58.78     2.85    65.15    11.26    20.52     0.51     2.23    22.98     7.96P    4.75R    0.51  
Notts_County     6    1   -7      -6.59     1.49    -5.90    55.82    10.99    -7.92     0.03     0.21     5.40     1.34P   19.47R    3.59  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 September 2013, Burton_Albion 1 2 Portsmouth; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield          7   19  +10       7.00    98.17     6.39    86.77    10.14    31.18    42.60    73.90    93.25    79.66P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd            7   15   +8       4.93    90.74     7.37    76.71    10.31    20.53    11.07    36.29    70.42    44.85P    0.06R    0.01  
Fleetwood_Town        7   15   +6       4.68    89.63     4.83    69.10    10.39     6.88     3.02    14.10    41.40    19.99P    0.71R    0.19  
Exeter                7   14   +3       3.04    79.92     0.96    70.94    10.38     8.22     4.29    18.04    48.11    25.27P    0.36R    0.10  
Wycombe               7   13   +4       3.10    80.15     3.47    69.47    10.36     8.53     3.13    14.45    43.04    21.13P    0.57R    0.16  
Morecambe             7   13   +2       3.76    85.08     2.62    66.83    10.29     2.61     1.73     9.53    32.85    14.36P    0.98R    0.29  
AFC_Wimbledon         7   13   +2       5.21    92.55     4.78    60.57    10.19    -7.54     0.43     2.94    14.87     5.02P    4.01R    1.47  
Mansfield             7   12   +3       3.52    83.19     4.69    60.42    10.80    -4.81     0.62     3.69    16.00     5.95P    4.88R    1.81  
Rochdale              7   11   +3       1.00    61.32     2.39    69.74    10.53    10.94     3.37    15.97    44.20    22.76P    0.61R    0.18  
Burton_Albion         7   11   +0       1.84    69.78     0.79    63.98    10.48    -1.34     1.03     6.13    24.14     9.73P    2.24R    0.75  
Scunthorpe            7   10   +2      -1.97    29.32    -1.67    72.95    10.99    16.14     7.42    25.63    56.60    35.23P    0.32R    0.10  
Newport_County        7    9   +1       1.27    64.96     4.13    46.48    10.19   -25.74     0.02     0.18     1.32     0.33P   36.88R   20.26  
Portsmouth            7    9   -1      -2.83    22.52    -4.39    77.53    11.06    22.65    13.97    41.02    71.91    51.41P    0.12R    0.04  
Dag_&_Red             7    9   -1      -0.50    45.14    -0.85    56.44    10.04    -9.97     0.15     1.23     7.58     2.53P    8.34R    3.21  
Southend              7    9   -1      -1.15    38.13    -1.87    67.92    10.42     7.21     2.27    11.64    37.65    18.39P    0.92R    0.25  
Plymouth              7    9   -3       0.30    54.64    -1.89    56.85     9.75   -10.31     0.11     1.03     7.28     2.33P    7.54R    2.85  
Bury                  7    7   +1      -3.37    18.23    -0.15    69.15    11.14    14.27     3.77    16.31    43.40    24.12P    0.94R    0.34  
Bristol_Rovers        7    7   -3      -2.10    28.87    -2.28    54.84    10.08   -11.72     0.10     0.82     5.87     1.85P   10.99R    4.30  
Torquay               7    6   -5      -2.76    22.45    -3.81    57.16    10.19    -8.20     0.18     1.48     8.76     3.06P    7.71R    3.00  
Cheltenham            7    6   -6      -3.04    20.24    -5.09    58.84    10.39    -6.95     0.28     2.12    11.97     4.48P    6.12R    2.38  
Hartlepool            7    5   -5      -5.21     7.38    -5.99    58.91    10.62    -3.65     0.34     2.68    12.71     5.44P    6.07R    2.38  
Northampton           7    4   -4      -5.73     5.07    -4.27    54.08    10.25    -9.25     0.11     0.77     5.47     1.79P   12.56R    5.23  
York                  7    4   -6      -4.33    10.58    -4.27    45.65     9.61   -23.02     0.00     0.04     0.69     0.18P   38.68R   21.16  
Accrington_Stanley    7    1  -10      -6.01     2.36    -5.92    43.51     9.89   -26.66     0.00     0.02     0.51     0.12P   48.40R   29.56  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 September 2013, Barnet 1 1 Lincoln_City; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd     8   20  +11       7.06    97.42     7.92    79.20     9.87    22.15    15.38    61.25    25.30P    0.02R    0.00  
Nuneaton          8   20   +8      10.08    99.58     9.39    73.53     9.94    10.65     5.59    38.02    10.89P    0.20R    0.01  
Forest_Green      8   15  +11       0.94    58.99     6.11    76.30     9.86    25.22    10.06    51.01    20.47P    0.09R    0.00  
Barnet            8   15   +7      -0.65    42.02    -0.38    82.24    10.38    30.64    26.33    71.91    40.85P    0.01R    0.00  
Alfreton_Town     8   15   +2       4.88    89.56     3.42    64.71    10.16    -2.39     1.10    12.50     2.79P    2.37R    0.28  
Kidderminster     8   15   +2       0.51    54.41    -3.60    78.68     9.90    20.27    14.32    58.94    26.13P    0.05R    0.00  
Grimsby           8   14   +3       0.61    56.01    -0.63    77.58     9.69    20.56    11.73    55.18    23.68P    0.05R    0.00  
Lincoln_City      8   14   +3       3.48    82.09     3.63    66.66     9.92     4.47     1.43    16.45     4.09P    1.23R    0.12  
Salisbury         8   13   +2       3.01    78.57     3.44    56.94    10.75   -10.29     0.33     4.35     1.01P   12.02R    2.15  
Halifax           8   13   -2       4.55    87.85     2.22    55.82    10.94   -18.31     0.27     3.64     0.72P   15.51R    3.26  
Southport         8   13   -2       2.85    76.73    -0.67    58.96     9.90   -12.84     0.24     4.25     0.85P    7.52R    1.09  
Hereford          8   11   +0      -2.01    30.47    -3.08    67.35     9.92     7.00     1.83    18.62     5.63P    1.01R    0.08  
Braintree_Town    8   11   +0       1.59    67.41     2.22    61.22     9.92    -2.85     0.41     6.63     1.50P    4.56R    0.63  
Luton             8   10   +1      -1.77    32.41    -0.31    71.83     9.83    15.97     3.95    32.77    11.12P    0.31R    0.01  
Welling           8    9   +0       0.17    53.38     3.51    54.43    10.95   -10.90     0.18     3.03     0.66P   17.89R    4.03  
Tamworth          8    9   -2      -0.00    51.27     0.90    52.84     9.54   -14.21     0.03     1.06     0.20P   18.42R    3.51  
Wrexham           8    8   -4      -6.05     5.48    -8.84    68.45     9.88     8.92     2.17    21.56     7.63P    0.82R    0.07  
Gateshead         8    7   -4      -2.40    27.50    -1.57    57.25     9.90    -6.56     0.13     3.09     0.63P    9.65R    1.61  
Dartford          8    7   -6      -3.40    19.00    -5.18    52.24     9.62   -16.04     0.02     0.83     0.15P   20.65R    4.02  
Woking            8    5   -6      -4.90     9.75    -3.97    47.09     9.83   -23.25     0.01     0.27     0.07P   39.64R   11.74  
Chester           8    4  -10      -2.89    21.28    -3.06    38.96    10.05   -37.38     0.00     0.05     0.01P   71.77R   40.18  
Aldershot         8    3   +4      -1.44    34.62    -1.19    71.40    10.00    28.39     4.43    33.16    15.28P    0.40R    0.04  
Macclesfield      8    3   -5      -7.54     1.53    -4.51    53.30     9.81    -7.28     0.05     1.33     0.34P   17.69R    3.65  
Hyde_United       8    2  -13      -4.89     6.75    -5.79    42.84     9.74   -31.95     0.00     0.08     0.01P   58.12R   23.51  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10