Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 13 September 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 1 September 2013, Arsenal 1 0 Tottenham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool         3    9   +3       4.05    95.50     1.82    69.84     9.33    22.02    11.80    26.52    42.74    59.08    84.77     0.02R    0.00  
Chelsea           3    7   +3       1.37    77.26     0.67    72.37     9.27    29.14    17.95    37.18    55.21    70.62    90.36     0.01R    0.00  
Man_City          3    6   +5      -0.79    31.13     0.84    72.96     9.14    33.85    20.66    40.23    58.28    73.48    91.83     0.01R    0.00  
Arsenal           3    6   +1       0.42    53.85    -1.22    69.07     9.34    24.24    10.69    24.51    40.39    56.73    83.13     0.03R    0.00  
Stoke             3    6   +1       2.26    83.72     1.39    47.51     8.72    -6.78     0.05     0.16     0.53     1.49     7.23     8.33R    1.33  
Tottenham         3    6   +1       1.02    64.58    -0.27    63.80     9.38    15.59     3.97    10.80    20.24    32.85    65.05     0.18R    0.02  
Man_Utd           3    4   +2      -1.12    33.21     0.50    76.48     8.93    41.30    34.07    57.14    73.41    84.80    96.09     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham          3    4   +1      -0.43    44.20     0.49    45.99     8.95    -7.54     0.03     0.15     0.44     1.16     5.78    11.88R    2.46  
Norwich           3    4   +0      -0.03    51.66     0.02    42.94     8.99   -14.12     0.01     0.07     0.23     0.56     3.22    20.94R    5.09  
Southampton       3    4   +0       0.07    53.83     0.23    45.02     9.10   -10.73     0.03     0.15     0.41     1.05     5.01    14.98R    3.28  
Cardiff           3    4   -1       1.24    74.15     0.90    41.21     9.31   -17.49     0.01     0.06     0.18     0.44     2.50    28.07R    8.18  
Newcastle         3    4   -3       0.53    62.23    -1.87    45.01     9.02   -13.83     0.01     0.10     0.33     0.93     4.86    15.32R    3.32  
Aston_Villa       3    3   +0       0.78    65.79     3.04    46.38     9.30    -7.10     0.04     0.17     0.55     1.39     6.73    12.19R    2.65  
Crystal_Palace    3    3   +0       0.18    54.70     1.80    32.41     8.73   -30.59     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.02     0.24    65.68R   34.88  
Everton           3    3   +0      -2.11    18.06    -1.41    56.29     9.18     8.00     0.56     2.28     5.40    11.06    32.40     1.23R    0.14  
Swansea           3    3   -2       0.18    54.30    -0.16    47.48     9.08    -6.77     0.04     0.21     0.72     1.84     7.82     9.39R    1.80  
Fulham            3    3   -2      -0.52    41.57    -1.21    46.97     9.05    -7.96     0.05     0.18     0.59     1.53     7.09    10.31R    1.93  
Hull              3    3   -3       0.95    69.43     0.35    34.73     8.52   -25.47     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.38    55.73R   23.30  
Sunderland        3    1   -3      -3.10     9.70    -3.05    40.92     8.75   -14.39     0.00     0.01     0.08     0.23     1.81    26.84R    6.88  
West_Brom         3    1   -3      -2.98    10.50    -2.87    43.57     9.13   -11.36     0.02     0.08     0.25     0.70     3.71    18.85R    4.71  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 August 2013, Barnsley 2 1 Huddersfield; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Blackpool        5   13   +5       5.07    95.56     3.34    75.68    10.89    14.82     9.72    19.60    55.20    27.69P    0.24R    0.03  
QPR              5   13   +4       4.72    94.41     1.94    79.75    11.28    19.72    18.32    32.34    68.47    42.11P    0.11R    0.00  
Burnley          5   10   +4       2.39    78.69     2.77    70.39    10.87    10.29     4.22     9.64    36.45    15.82P    0.98R    0.10  
Nott'm_Forest    5   10   +4       3.37    86.86     4.38    71.18    10.75    11.82     4.42    10.48    38.74    17.02P    0.74R    0.07  
Leicester        5   10   +2       2.04    74.26     0.36    76.90    10.93    18.24    11.96    23.36    59.94    33.21P    0.22R    0.02  
Bournemouth      5    9   -6       4.28    91.74    -2.25    50.65    11.07   -30.46     0.07     0.24     2.31     0.52P   31.68R    9.13  
Watford          5    8   +5       0.16    52.74     3.38    76.78    11.25    24.77    12.66    24.45    60.25    34.47P    0.29R    0.03  
Wigan            5    8   +4      -1.62    29.57    -0.34    77.42    11.88    24.83    15.27    27.66    61.87    38.04P    0.36R    0.04  
Reading          5    8   +1      -0.21    47.53    -1.06    75.82    11.75    18.86    12.01    22.67    56.09    32.08P    0.49R    0.04  
Leeds_United     5    8   +1       1.64    71.44     1.66    63.14    10.88    -0.69     0.98     2.70    15.85     5.33P    4.81R    0.65  
Blackburn        5    7   +3      -0.93    38.63     1.36    66.20    11.01     7.48     1.97     5.03    24.16     9.43P    2.61R    0.37  
Huddersfield     5    7   +3       0.51    57.85     3.46    57.07    10.78    -6.64     0.28     0.84     6.57     1.83P   12.32R    2.29  
Brighton         5    7   +1      -0.93    38.34    -0.58    70.33    10.77    11.86     4.01     9.33    36.57    16.68P    0.89R    0.09  
Derby            5    7   +0       0.19    53.37    -0.01    62.10    10.80    -1.55     0.77     2.19    13.49     4.51P    5.59R    0.78  
Middlesbrough    5    6   +0      -0.29    46.87     0.91    61.26    10.71    -1.21     0.62     1.84    11.89     3.86P    6.12R    0.96  
Ipswich          5    4   +0      -1.82    27.88     1.53    55.94    10.75    -6.23     0.20     0.63     5.19     1.52P   14.56R    3.06  
Charlton         4    4   -1      -1.91    25.94    -1.65    60.93    11.09    -1.85     0.74     1.92    12.17     4.15P    7.18R    1.30  
Doncaster        4    4   -1      -0.62    43.61     0.45    50.05    11.42   -18.52     0.08     0.24     2.34     0.68P   33.17R   10.06  
Birmingham       5    4   -2      -3.15    15.57    -2.44    61.80    10.85     0.55     0.71     2.13    13.26     4.69P    5.74R    0.84  
Barnsley         5    4   -7      -1.12    37.86    -4.09    47.70    10.42   -27.28     0.02     0.05     0.87     0.16P   40.51R   12.70  
Sheff_Wed        5    3   -2      -2.84    16.46    -0.59    53.39    10.60   -10.66     0.09     0.35     3.17     0.87P   20.51R    4.56  
Yeovil           5    3   -6      -1.42    32.42    -2.13    38.70    10.38   -39.87     0.00     0.01     0.12     0.03P   73.52R   43.68  
Millwall         5    2   -5      -4.46     5.68    -4.56    49.84    10.42   -16.69     0.03     0.11     1.41     0.34P   31.14R    8.23  
Bolton           5    2   -7      -4.07     8.72    -5.84    61.82    11.06    -1.58     0.84     2.19    13.62     4.97P    6.21R    0.97  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 September 2013, Preston 2 1 Oldham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient    5   15  +11       6.40    98.41     8.35    76.54    11.15    18.83     5.73    16.55    60.47    25.72P    0.44R    0.02  
Wolverhampton    5   13   +8       3.21    86.56     3.25    92.31    11.43    44.90    46.22    69.18    94.41    77.56P    0.01R    0.00  
Peterborough     6   13   +7       1.50    65.89     1.53    88.23    11.61    41.50    30.94    56.00    89.17    66.28P    0.05R    0.00  
Rotherham        6   12   +4       4.79    91.11     5.74    58.51    11.45   -11.32     0.25     0.95     9.93     2.33P   16.21R    2.47  
Bradford         6   11   +9       3.37    84.13    10.01    58.55    11.18    -3.32     0.17     0.89     9.88     2.29P   14.61R    1.93  
Preston          6   10   +4       1.68    69.00     3.92    70.42    10.88    12.20     1.71     6.08    38.91    13.12P    1.68R    0.11  
Crawley_Town     6   10   +2       2.56    78.81     3.73    63.85    11.01    -0.38     0.44     1.95    19.19     4.91P    6.34R    0.59  
MK_Dons          6   10   +2       0.41    54.47    -0.13    76.66    10.68    19.72     5.04    15.35    61.64    28.35P    0.34R    0.00  
Brentford        6    9   -1      -0.71    41.47    -3.24    66.16    10.63     2.33     0.64     2.66    24.17     7.49P    3.70R    0.27  
Swindon          6    8   +3      -2.27    24.64    -0.08    76.63    10.74    23.81     5.11    15.63    62.42    30.33P    0.36R    0.01  
Colchester       6    8   -1       0.48    57.28     0.17    54.20    10.42   -14.78     0.03     0.20     3.74     0.74P   24.25R    3.88  
Walsall          5    7   -1       0.05    51.48    -1.14    62.10    11.07    -3.43     0.31     1.49    15.31     4.22P    8.59R    0.98  
Port_Vale        6    7   -3      -0.05    51.07    -1.06    51.09    11.13   -21.90     0.02     0.16     2.87     0.60P   36.76R    8.22  
Oldham           6    6   -1      -1.13    37.59     0.95    53.34    10.54   -13.01     0.03     0.16     3.31     0.66P   27.27R    4.91  
Shrewsbury       5    6   -1       0.42    56.66     0.90    57.19    10.82    -9.17     0.09     0.46     6.79     1.55P   17.47R    2.66  
Stevenage        6    5   -2      -2.45    23.86    -0.90    54.56    10.54   -10.30     0.04     0.22     4.17     0.92P   23.25R    3.74  
Crewe            6    5   -7      -0.77    43.20    -2.63    49.18    10.50   -25.89     0.01     0.03     1.36     0.26P   43.02R   10.88  
Tranmere         6    5   -7      -2.89    20.32    -6.42    55.87    10.56   -13.41     0.04     0.29     5.17     1.28P   20.15R    3.24  
Sheff_Utd        6    4   -6      -5.24     5.95    -7.52    64.45    10.80     2.25     0.48     2.12    20.12     6.74P    5.38R    0.53  
Bristol_City     5    3   -2      -3.98     9.65    -2.06    68.06    12.36    11.73     1.77     6.03    33.82    13.33P    4.58R    0.54  
Gillingham       6    3   -6      -2.88    18.15    -2.01    47.41    11.01   -23.04     0.01     0.05     1.33     0.30P   49.43R   14.93  
Carlisle         6    2  -13      -4.10     9.94    -9.33    40.45    10.22   -42.94     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.04P   75.09R   37.15  
Coventry         6    1   +6       0.81    58.97     2.89    64.86    11.19    20.05     0.76     2.97    23.16     8.70P    5.25R    0.57  
Notts_County     5    1   -5      -5.86     2.08    -4.92    57.90    11.06    -4.44     0.13     0.57     8.48     2.30P   15.79R    2.36  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Friday 13 September 2013, Southend 0 1 Scunthorpe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield          6   16   +8       6.30    97.81     5.80    85.02    10.34    29.06    39.01    70.20    91.30    76.35P    0.00R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd            6   14   +8       5.28    94.32     7.32    76.84    10.57    20.18    13.52    39.79    71.96    47.79P    0.11R    0.02  
AFC_Wimbledon         6   13   +4       5.66    95.37     5.33    62.06    10.43    -5.40     0.90     4.99    19.85     7.38P    3.81R    1.35  
Fleetwood_Town        6   12   +5       3.26    83.24     4.15    66.86    10.52     4.94     2.53    11.60    35.33    16.72P    1.40R    0.46  
Exeter                6   11   +2       1.43    66.49     0.01    68.61    10.43     6.23     3.33    14.71    41.76    21.24P    0.91R    0.27  
Burton_Albion         6   11   +1       3.01    81.29     1.42    65.86    10.72     0.46     2.13     9.93    31.87    14.55P    1.90R    0.64  
Scunthorpe            7   10   +2      -1.87    30.34    -1.54    73.07    10.78    16.32     8.11    27.46    58.91    37.16P    0.31R    0.08  
Morecambe             6   10   +1       2.31    76.12     1.87    64.68    10.40     1.02     1.49     7.76    27.57    11.92P    2.18R    0.72  
Wycombe               6   10   +1       1.72    69.98     0.86    65.27    10.46     1.81     1.85     8.69    29.70    13.29P    1.80R    0.59  
Newport_County        6    9   +2       2.38    76.86     4.64    48.30    10.40   -23.12     0.06     0.40     2.35     0.77P   33.15R   17.95  
Mansfield             6    9   +2       1.87    71.62     3.69    57.28    11.02    -8.00     0.42     2.61    11.79     4.42P   10.43R    4.71  
Plymouth              6    9   +0       1.39    67.06     0.71    60.36     9.98    -4.13     0.44     2.98    14.89     5.49P    4.67R    1.71  
Southend              7    9   -1      -1.20    37.22    -1.95    67.89    10.33     7.15     2.55    12.71    39.38    19.65P    0.97R    0.32  
Rochdale              6    8   +2      -0.16    49.10     2.12    68.13    10.73    10.01     3.20    14.62    40.76    21.25P    1.08R    0.37  
Bury                  6    7   +2      -2.16    26.63     0.59    71.12    11.36    16.18     6.58    23.25    52.27    31.70P    0.83R    0.27  
Bristol_Rovers        6    7   -1      -1.05    38.55    -0.78    57.60    10.44    -7.68     0.30     2.23    11.00     4.15P    8.51R    3.51  
Portsmouth            6    6   -2      -4.22    10.91    -5.04    75.10    11.38    20.49    12.10    35.62    65.49    45.50P    0.34R    0.12  
Dag_&_Red             6    6   -3      -1.76    29.89    -2.27    53.91    10.22   -13.32     0.13     0.95     5.65     1.91P   14.93R    6.74  
Torquay               6    6   -4      -1.82    29.79    -3.46    58.24    10.33    -7.78     0.36     2.31    11.80     4.42P    7.51R    3.02  
Cheltenham            6    5   -6      -2.61    21.93    -5.03    59.41    10.41    -6.53     0.43     2.95    14.10     5.57P    6.34R    2.57  
Northampton           6    4   -3      -4.29     9.36    -3.17    56.23    10.41    -7.06     0.19     1.58     8.96     3.30P   10.30R    4.49  
York                  6    4   -5      -2.96    18.20    -3.31    47.82     9.84   -20.73     0.02     0.16     1.50     0.39P   33.42R   18.07  
Hartlepool            6    2   -6      -6.27     2.23    -6.21    57.16    10.86    -4.69     0.35     2.42    11.10     4.89P   10.03R    4.37  
Accrington_Stanley    6    1   -9      -5.19     3.76    -5.75    44.98     9.89   -25.40     0.01     0.07     0.73     0.18P   45.10R   27.64  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Friday 13 September 2013, Hereford 0 2 Aldershot; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd     7   17  +10       5.97    96.05     7.66    77.77    10.17    21.44    12.79    57.35    22.33P    0.07R    0.01  
Nuneaton          7   17   +7       8.38    99.15     8.34    71.55    10.05     9.10     3.88    32.29     8.34P    0.43R    0.03  
Barnet            7   14   +7       0.30    52.71     0.42    84.31    10.53    33.58    34.42    78.39    48.27P    0.01R    0.00  
Lincoln_City      7   13   +3       3.32    81.91     2.83    65.88    10.05     2.49     1.28    15.88     3.81P    1.87R    0.24  
Halifax           7   13   -1       5.23    91.89     2.10    56.18    11.23   -19.50     0.30     4.59     0.89P   16.52R    3.90  
Forest_Green      7   12  +10       0.14    50.99     6.42    75.34    10.05    25.41     9.06    48.45    19.26P    0.15R    0.01  
Alfreton_Town     7   12   +1       3.13    80.97     2.33    61.37    10.31    -6.58     0.56     8.08     1.61P    5.55R    0.87  
Kidderminster     7   12   +1      -0.19    47.46    -3.04    78.36    10.18    21.59    14.11    59.63    26.93P    0.10R    0.00  
Southport         7   12   -2       3.53    83.01    -0.21    60.26    10.20   -11.46     0.37     6.58     1.20P    6.74R    1.03  
Grimsby           7   11   +2      -0.33    46.48    -0.71    76.23     9.93    20.08     9.72    51.46    21.07P    0.09R    0.01  
Braintree_Town    7   11   +1       2.34    74.90     2.34    62.42    10.07    -2.34     0.53     9.29     1.91P    4.07R    0.56  
Hereford          8   11   +0      -2.04    30.30    -3.16    67.45     9.96     6.98     1.85    19.90     5.88P    1.20R    0.12  
Luton             8   10   +1      -1.82    31.89    -0.33    71.87     9.80    16.12     4.03    34.32    11.77P    0.39R    0.04  
Salisbury         7   10   +0       2.11    72.83     2.49    54.53    11.08   -13.55     0.21     3.26     0.80P   19.17R    4.73  
Tamworth          8    9   -2      -0.05    50.89     0.84    53.09     9.53   -14.01     0.03     1.19     0.20P   19.11R    3.82  
Welling           7    8   +0       0.29    55.19     3.03    53.78    11.11   -12.61     0.16     2.79     0.61P   20.99R    5.56  
Wrexham           8    8   -4      -6.04     5.46    -8.80    68.41     9.81     8.91     2.08    22.33     7.60P    0.89R    0.08  
Gateshead         7    7   -3      -1.63    33.40    -1.41    58.61    10.11    -5.74     0.19     4.80     0.94P    8.55R    1.52  
Dartford          7    7   -5      -2.09    28.41    -4.27    54.45     9.86   -13.83     0.07     1.93     0.40P   16.34R    3.30  
Woking            8    5   -6      -4.93     9.93    -3.96    47.40     9.89   -23.00     0.01     0.38     0.08P   40.38R   12.46  
Chester           7    4   -8      -2.26    25.86    -2.30    41.15    10.40   -33.57     0.00     0.13     0.01P   65.34R   33.88  
Aldershot         8    3   +4      -1.44    34.48    -1.20    71.28    10.03    28.33     4.20    34.01    15.43P    0.54R    0.05  
Macclesfield      7    3   -4      -6.00     3.34    -3.21    55.89    10.12    -4.61     0.13     2.86     0.65P   13.41R    2.70  
Hyde_United       7    2  -12      -4.35     8.34    -6.21    43.19     9.86   -33.23     0.00     0.12     0.02P   58.11R   25.10  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10