Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 12 September 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 1 September 2013, Arsenal 1 0 Tottenham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool         3    9   +3       4.01    95.16     1.77    70.02     9.30    22.27    11.69    26.52    42.78    59.63    85.16     0.02R    0.00  
Chelsea           3    7   +3       1.35    77.11     0.60    72.64     9.24    29.70    18.30    37.78    55.80    71.24    90.84     0.01R    0.00  
Man_City          3    6   +5      -0.81    30.68     0.80    73.18     9.11    34.27    20.95    40.97    58.86    73.73    92.23     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal           3    6   +1       0.38    52.82    -1.32    69.21     9.35    24.43    10.91    24.83    40.54    56.98    83.96     0.03R    0.01  
Stoke             3    6   +1       2.25    83.87     1.38    47.50     8.58    -6.77     0.03     0.16     0.50     1.32     6.66     8.00R    1.26  
Tottenham         3    6   +1       1.03    64.83    -0.26    63.77     9.30    15.53     3.66     9.98    19.79    32.76    65.22     0.17R    0.02  
Man_Utd           3    4   +2      -1.11    33.46     0.52    76.43     8.92    41.30    33.69    56.63    73.03    84.43    96.06     0.00R    0.00  
West_Ham          3    4   +1      -0.45    44.18     0.48    45.92     8.92    -7.71     0.03     0.13     0.39     1.12     5.75    12.07R    2.30  
Norwich           3    4   +0      -0.05    51.55     0.00    42.85     8.92   -14.38     0.01     0.06     0.18     0.53     2.90    21.03R    5.00  
Southampton       3    4   +0       0.09    54.37     0.26    45.01     8.99   -10.81     0.02     0.12     0.41     1.02     4.84    14.67R    3.06  
Cardiff           3    4   -1       1.23    74.02     0.89    41.25     9.32   -17.38     0.01     0.05     0.16     0.46     2.46    28.08R    8.22  
Newcastle         3    4   -3       0.55    62.62    -1.82    44.89     9.10   -14.14     0.03     0.11     0.37     0.93     4.86    15.85R    3.51  
Aston_Villa       3    3   +0       0.82    66.41     3.16    46.08     9.23    -7.59     0.03     0.16     0.50     1.30     6.34    12.79R    2.71  
Crystal_Palace    3    3   +0       0.20    54.81     1.83    32.30     8.73   -30.94     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.22    66.46R   35.60  
Everton           3    3   +0      -2.07    18.48    -1.37    56.09     9.15     7.71     0.58     2.04     5.11    10.29    31.55     1.25R    0.15  
Swansea           3    3   -2       0.20    54.81    -0.13    47.44     8.99    -6.82     0.03     0.18     0.61     1.61     7.55     9.28R    1.83  
Fulham            3    3   -2      -0.55    41.11    -1.22    47.18     9.04    -7.73     0.03     0.16     0.57     1.52     7.18    10.05R    1.89  
Hull              3    3   -3       0.94    69.17     0.36    34.84     8.55   -25.34     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.38    55.01R   23.02  
Sunderland        3    1   -3      -3.10     9.80    -3.05    40.97     8.74   -14.43     0.00     0.03     0.09     0.27     1.80    26.74R    6.84  
West_Brom         3    1   -3      -3.00    10.44    -2.90    43.73     9.15   -11.16     0.02     0.09     0.28     0.79     4.03    18.48R    4.59  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 August 2013, Barnsley 2 1 Huddersfield; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Blackpool        5   13   +5       5.02    95.26     3.29    75.97    11.04    15.27    10.41    20.82    55.80    28.92P    0.26R    0.01  
QPR              5   13   +4       4.69    94.09     1.89    80.04    11.27    20.08    19.19    33.12    69.16    42.98P    0.09R    0.00  
Burnley          5   10   +4       2.38    78.41     2.75    70.23    10.99    10.07     4.18     9.63    35.86    15.59P    1.02R    0.10  
Nott'm_Forest    5   10   +4       3.34    86.73     4.34    71.27    10.85    11.93     4.62    10.58    39.28    17.20P    0.78R    0.07  
Leicester        5   10   +2       2.03    74.12     0.33    77.04    10.75    18.43    11.96    23.15    60.21    33.08P    0.14R    0.02  
Bournemouth      5    9   -6       4.31    91.88    -2.19    50.41    11.07   -30.83     0.08     0.23     2.05     0.47P   32.12R    9.41  
Watford          5    8   +5       0.11    52.01     3.28    77.02    11.09    25.13    12.58    24.73    61.28    34.80P    0.23R    0.01  
Wigan            5    8   +4      -1.61    29.58    -0.33    77.21    11.90    24.39    14.96    27.01    60.84    37.14P    0.36R    0.03  
Reading          5    8   +1      -0.12    48.90    -0.91    75.24    11.78    18.03    10.68    21.07    53.76    30.36P    0.52R    0.05  
Leeds_United     5    8   +1       1.62    71.35     1.65    63.34    10.93    -0.31     1.08     2.83    16.43     5.51P    4.34R    0.64  
Blackburn        5    7   +3      -0.91    39.11     1.39    66.02    11.06     7.22     1.99     5.03    23.59     9.31P    2.75R    0.33  
Huddersfield     5    7   +3       0.55    58.38     3.49    56.90    10.59    -6.81     0.19     0.68     5.96     1.57P   12.01R    2.09  
Brighton         5    7   +1      -0.92    38.33    -0.58    70.54    10.73    12.16     4.11     9.53    36.90    16.77P    0.83R    0.07  
Derby            5    7   +0       0.19    53.25     0.00    62.20    10.78    -1.41     0.76     2.18    13.69     4.62P    5.37R    0.71  
Middlesbrough    5    6   +0      -0.21    47.96     1.01    60.95    10.86    -1.73     0.57     1.78    11.71     3.85P    6.73R    1.04  
Ipswich          5    4   +0      -1.82    28.07     1.50    56.15    10.69    -5.86     0.17     0.58     5.24     1.48P   13.81R    2.78  
Charlton         4    4   -1      -1.97    25.22    -1.72    61.30    11.14    -1.33     0.71     2.09    12.88     4.42P    6.69R    1.18  
Doncaster        4    4   -1      -0.62    43.55     0.45    49.91    11.31   -18.60     0.08     0.23     2.21     0.62P   33.31R   10.03  
Birmingham       5    4   -2      -3.15    15.34    -2.43    61.89    10.94     0.62     0.73     2.04    13.66     4.79P    5.73R    0.88  
Barnsley         5    4   -7      -1.08    38.24    -4.07    47.54    10.42   -27.53     0.01     0.05     0.87     0.18P   41.05R   12.94  
Sheff_Wed        5    3   -2      -2.83    16.43    -0.56    53.35    10.64   -10.74     0.10     0.29     3.14     0.88P   20.52R    4.77  
Yeovil           5    3   -6      -1.37    33.08    -2.09    38.37    10.29   -40.27     0.00     0.01     0.11     0.03P   74.59R   44.23  
Millwall         5    2   -5      -4.52     5.55    -4.63    50.01    10.40   -16.49     0.03     0.09     1.50     0.39P   30.44R    7.60  
Bolton           5    2   -7      -4.09     8.84    -5.86    61.97    11.13    -1.40     0.84     2.26    13.86     5.05P    6.29R    1.00  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 September 2013, Preston 2 1 Oldham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient    5   15  +11       6.41    98.32     8.34    76.70    11.06    19.13     6.01    17.01    61.14    26.32P    0.39R    0.01  
Wolverhampton    5   13   +8       3.26    87.01     3.34    91.90    11.52    44.13    45.64    68.04    93.81    76.44P    0.02R    0.00  
Peterborough     6   13   +7       1.55    66.53     1.64    87.90    11.65    40.91    30.30    55.37    88.52    65.58P    0.03R    0.00  
Rotherham        6   12   +4       4.77    90.99     5.74    58.57    11.36   -11.22     0.23     0.94     9.86     2.42P   15.75R    2.43  
Bradford         6   11   +9       3.41    84.42    10.06    58.41    11.26    -3.49     0.25     0.90     9.64     2.35P   15.30R    2.10  
Preston          6   10   +4       1.75    69.97     4.01    69.93    10.78    11.57     1.60     5.69    37.10    12.39P    1.82R    0.12  
Crawley_Town     6   10   +2       2.49    77.98     3.61    64.07    10.97    -0.03     0.40     1.90    19.59     5.00P    6.17R    0.63  
MK_Dons          6   10   +2       0.44    54.91    -0.09    76.50    10.84    19.54     5.41    15.50    61.38    28.44P    0.43R    0.02  
Brentford        6    9   -1      -0.69    41.86    -3.21    66.22    10.66     2.44     0.73     2.97    24.54     7.75P    3.45R    0.24  
Swindon          6    8   +3      -2.27    24.59    -0.10    76.75    10.79    24.03     5.53    16.53    62.64    30.88P    0.34R    0.01  
Colchester       6    8   -1       0.42    56.72     0.12    54.31    10.32   -14.67     0.03     0.20     3.70     0.79P   24.37R    3.60  
Walsall          5    7   -1      -0.02    50.80    -1.25    62.58    11.09    -2.71     0.43     1.65    16.41     4.46P    8.00R    0.87  
Port_Vale        6    7   -3      -0.10    50.39    -1.13    51.34    11.18   -21.60     0.04     0.18     3.08     0.66P   35.95R    8.16  
Oldham           6    6   -1      -1.14    37.40     0.92    53.34    10.52   -12.96     0.04     0.17     3.32     0.68P   27.31R    4.65  
Shrewsbury       5    6   -1       0.35    55.67     0.82    57.57    10.77    -8.61     0.10     0.52     7.23     1.68P   16.40R    2.38  
Stevenage        6    5   -2      -2.46    23.76    -0.90    54.66    10.55   -10.19     0.04     0.20     4.36     0.93P   23.15R    3.71  
Crewe            6    5   -7      -0.78    42.92    -2.67    49.27    10.65   -25.76     0.01     0.07     1.61     0.29P   43.21R   11.00  
Tranmere         6    5   -7      -2.86    20.55    -6.38    55.83    10.55   -13.42     0.03     0.23     5.10     1.08P   20.29R    3.17  
Sheff_Utd        6    4   -6      -5.25     5.89    -7.54    64.68    10.85     2.63     0.54     2.21    20.74     7.02P    5.29R    0.53  
Bristol_City     5    3   -2      -3.98     9.41    -2.04    67.81    12.49    11.33     1.76     6.21    32.98    13.38P    4.94R    0.60  
Gillingham       6    3   -6      -2.84    18.41    -1.95    47.21    11.06   -23.36     0.01     0.05     1.29     0.28P   50.22R   15.59  
Carlisle         6    2  -13      -4.06    10.03    -9.28    40.38    10.13   -43.00     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.02P   75.35R   37.07  
Coventry         6    1   +6       0.77    58.57     2.83    64.91    11.11    20.14     0.72     2.84    23.48     8.73P    5.12R    0.50  
Notts_County     5    1   -5      -5.83     2.23    -4.90    57.66    11.12    -4.80     0.14     0.60     8.34     2.42P   16.67R    2.61  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 September 2013, Burton_Albion 0 2 Oxford_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield          6   16   +8       6.33    97.78     5.85    84.92    10.33    28.94    38.79    70.00    91.19    76.13P    0.00R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd            6   14   +8       5.31    94.54     7.37    76.54    10.52    19.71    12.92    38.54    71.05    46.59P    0.13R    0.03  
AFC_Wimbledon         6   13   +4       5.70    95.36     5.38    61.95    10.50    -5.67     0.91     5.12    19.85     7.65P    4.05R    1.51  
Fleetwood_Town        6   12   +5       3.20    82.68     4.07    67.03    10.42     5.18     2.58    11.76    35.73    17.00P    1.30R    0.44  
Exeter                6   11   +2       1.45    66.72     0.00    68.48    10.56     6.01     3.52    14.69    41.17    20.94P    0.91R    0.30  
Burton_Albion         6   11   +1       3.05    81.72     1.48    65.75    10.55     0.29     1.99     9.46    31.09    13.90P    2.00R    0.67  
Morecambe             6   10   +1       2.32    76.60     1.90    64.66    10.46     0.94     1.53     7.74    27.77    11.95P    2.32R    0.84  
Wycombe               6   10   +1       1.74    70.18     0.89    65.33    10.50     1.80     1.91     8.94    30.11    13.71P    1.88R    0.64  
Newport_County        6    9   +2       2.40    77.17     4.71    48.36    10.56   -23.34     0.07     0.41     2.51     0.74P   33.44R   18.40  
Mansfield             6    9   +2       1.88    71.80     3.69    57.26    10.85    -8.14     0.38     2.54    11.44     4.25P   10.01R    4.32  
Southend              6    9   +0       0.14    51.94    -0.97    70.36    10.61     9.81     4.79    19.33    48.49    27.11P    0.60R    0.18  
Plymouth              6    9   +0       1.43    67.58     0.79    60.32    10.03    -4.27     0.50     3.25    15.18     5.78P    4.65R    1.63  
Rochdale              6    8   +2      -0.20    49.03     2.08    68.41    10.71    10.36     3.52    14.85    41.51    21.42P    1.12R    0.39  
Bury                  6    7   +2      -2.20    26.39     0.51    71.42    11.48    16.70     7.00    24.31    53.32    32.92P    0.84R    0.31  
Scunthorpe            6    7   +1      -3.55    14.43    -2.59    70.21    11.27    13.57     5.73    20.80    48.82    29.45P    0.88R    0.34  
Bristol_Rovers        6    7   -1      -1.14    37.35    -0.90    57.78    10.32    -7.33     0.28     2.08    10.99     3.91P    8.23R    3.30  
Portsmouth            6    6   -2      -4.22    11.18    -5.03    75.02    11.43    20.37    12.02    35.42    65.05    45.40P    0.39R    0.13  
Dag_&_Red             6    6   -3      -1.77    29.71    -2.27    54.02    10.35   -13.24     0.12     0.96     6.06     1.98P   15.11R    6.86  
Torquay               6    6   -4      -1.82    29.88    -3.46    58.38    10.36    -7.65     0.33     2.46    12.17     4.67P    7.62R    3.10  
Cheltenham            6    5   -6      -2.61    22.09    -5.03    59.36    10.42    -6.60     0.49     2.95    14.07     5.47P    6.39R    2.54  
Northampton           6    4   -3      -4.27     9.45    -3.14    56.16    10.52    -7.14     0.27     1.77     9.03     3.48P   10.95R    4.62  
York                  6    4   -5      -3.00    17.55    -3.34    48.08     9.85   -20.43     0.02     0.18     1.48     0.43P   32.46R   17.27  
Hartlepool            6    2   -6      -6.28     2.27    -6.22    57.34    10.70    -4.42     0.33     2.36    11.11     4.89P    9.35R    4.00  
Accrington_Stanley    6    1   -9      -5.22     3.54    -5.77    45.01     9.98   -25.44     0.00     0.09     0.82     0.24P   45.38R   28.21  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 September 2013, Aldershot 1 0 Macclesfield; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd     7   17  +10       5.97    96.11     7.66    77.83    10.23    21.56    13.02    57.01    22.71P    0.08R    0.01  
Nuneaton          7   17   +7       8.41    99.16     8.40    71.33    10.11     8.73     3.75    31.09     8.04P    0.56R    0.04  
Barnet            7   14   +7       0.31    52.73     0.42    84.19    10.49    33.30    33.28    78.38    47.56P    0.01R    0.00  
Lincoln_City      7   13   +3       3.32    82.17     2.83    65.69     9.98     2.22     1.19    15.19     3.64P    1.92R    0.21  
Halifax           7   13   -1       5.15    91.66     1.96    56.35    11.22   -19.23     0.29     4.61     0.93P   16.25R    3.77  
Forest_Green      7   12  +10       0.14    51.13     6.42    75.71    10.07    25.91     9.42    50.13    20.02P    0.14R    0.01  
Alfreton_Town     7   12   +1       3.15    80.92     2.36    61.60    10.25    -6.12     0.55     8.29     1.72P    5.37R    0.84  
Kidderminster     7   12   +1      -0.16    47.60    -2.98    78.29    10.11    21.47    13.64    59.31    26.34P    0.09R    0.01  
Southport         7   12   -2       3.53    83.17    -0.22    60.27    10.25   -11.43     0.39     6.54     1.29P    7.03R    1.06  
Hereford          7   11   +2      -0.92    40.09    -1.51    69.94    10.18    10.84     3.16    27.98     8.75P    0.70R    0.04  
Grimsby           7   11   +2      -0.42    45.47    -0.82    76.48     9.96    20.49     9.99    52.13    21.50P    0.10R    0.00  
Braintree_Town    7   11   +1       2.35    75.16     2.37    62.41    10.10    -2.26     0.57     9.12     1.94P    4.28R    0.56  
Luton             7   10   +3      -0.88    40.17     1.08    73.96     9.94    19.22     6.03    42.34    15.81P    0.20R    0.02  
Salisbury         7   10   +0       2.03    72.45     2.41    54.80    10.90   -13.06     0.18     3.21     0.69P   17.95R    4.30  
Welling           7    8   +0       0.34    55.88     3.13    53.51    11.33   -13.25     0.19     2.87     0.61P   22.42R    6.30  
Tamworth          7    8   -2       0.09    52.76     0.49    52.92     9.68   -14.82     0.03     1.14     0.19P   20.33R    4.27  
Gateshead         7    7   -3      -1.55    34.55    -1.30    58.52    10.14    -5.94     0.24     4.67     1.01P    8.66R    1.58  
Dartford          7    7   -5      -2.13    28.28    -4.30    54.30     9.92   -14.08     0.06     1.81     0.32P   16.98R    3.49  
Wrexham           7    5   -6      -7.23     1.81   -10.16    65.80    10.07     5.47     1.35    16.00     5.31P    1.94R    0.22  
Woking            7    4   -6      -4.32    10.55    -3.68    48.08    10.08   -22.47     0.02     0.52     0.09P   38.33R   11.59  
Chester           7    4   -8      -2.23    26.18    -2.29    41.29    10.43   -33.40     0.00     0.15     0.03P   64.86R   33.71  
Macclesfield      7    3   -4      -6.00     3.27    -3.25    55.91    10.11    -4.64     0.11     2.76     0.62P   13.16R    2.78  
Hyde_United       7    2  -12      -4.39     8.18    -6.27    43.37     9.90   -32.99     0.00     0.12     0.02P   57.44R   25.05  
Aldershot         7    0   +2      -2.79    21.23    -2.76    68.31    10.37    24.44     2.54    24.63    10.86P    1.20R    0.15  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10