Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 9 September 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 1 September 2013, Arsenal 1 0 Tottenham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool         3    9   +3       4.02    95.26     1.77    69.88     9.26    22.15    11.61    26.11    42.47    59.27    84.97     0.01R    0.00  
Chelsea           3    7   +3       1.35    77.05     0.63    72.54     9.30    29.49    18.57    37.95    55.38    70.72    90.49     0.01R    0.00  
Man_City          3    6   +5      -0.80    31.09     0.81    72.96     9.13    33.96    20.43    40.23    58.28    73.17    91.77     0.01R    0.00  
Arsenal           3    6   +1       0.40    53.33    -1.28    69.36     9.40    24.71    11.45    25.51    41.54    57.68    83.83     0.03R    0.00  
Stoke             3    6   +1       2.27    83.95     1.41    47.48     8.68    -6.92     0.04     0.17     0.52     1.32     6.84     8.52R    1.31  
Tottenham         3    6   +1       1.01    64.54    -0.28    63.90     9.43    15.82     4.05    10.82    20.45    33.55    65.60     0.14R    0.01  
Man_Utd           3    4   +2      -1.11    33.54     0.54    76.28     8.90    41.07    32.97    55.91    72.66    84.22    95.98     0.00R    0.00  
West_Ham          3    4   +1      -0.45    44.09     0.47    45.92     9.00    -7.72     0.03     0.14     0.42     1.21     5.79    12.27R    2.57  
Norwich           3    4   +0      -0.05    51.36     0.00    42.75     8.93   -14.54     0.01     0.04     0.20     0.47     2.87    21.60R    5.13  
Southampton       3    4   +0       0.10    54.41     0.26    45.06     9.07   -10.77     0.04     0.14     0.38     1.02     4.99    14.57R    3.05  
Cardiff           3    4   -1       1.21    73.60     0.87    41.31     9.33   -17.36     0.01     0.06     0.17     0.44     2.55    27.77R    8.33  
Newcastle         3    4   -3       0.56    62.64    -1.80    44.86     9.08   -14.12     0.01     0.11     0.30     0.83     4.68    15.73R    3.64  
Aston_Villa       3    3   +0       0.81    66.12     3.10    46.25     9.15    -7.34     0.02     0.16     0.42     1.21     6.42    12.30R    2.51  
Crystal_Palace    3    3   +0       0.20    54.91     1.84    32.26     8.71   -30.94     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.02     0.21    66.57R   35.49  
Everton           3    3   +0      -2.06    18.55    -1.35    56.22     9.16     7.91     0.65     2.15     5.25    10.56    31.76     1.13R    0.16  
Swansea           3    3   -2       0.18    54.40    -0.13    47.47     9.03    -6.77     0.04     0.20     0.59     1.58     7.67     9.28R    1.69  
Fulham            3    3   -2      -0.57    40.80    -1.25    47.15     9.09    -7.77     0.04     0.18     0.59     1.62     7.40     9.97R    1.96  
Hull              3    3   -3       0.94    69.11     0.35    34.87     8.55   -25.36     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.37    55.01R   22.82  
Sunderland        3    1   -3      -3.10     9.68    -3.05    41.06     8.80   -14.27     0.00     0.02     0.09     0.29     1.90    26.53R    6.83  
West_Brom         3    1   -3      -3.01    10.17    -2.90    43.71     9.12   -11.22     0.02     0.08     0.27     0.78     3.89    18.54R    4.50  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 August 2013, Barnsley 2 1 Huddersfield; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Blackpool        5   13   +5       5.06    95.57     3.34    75.82    11.04    15.10    10.06    20.40    55.32    28.35P    0.23R    0.02  
QPR              5   13   +4       4.71    94.35     1.92    80.02    11.29    20.09    19.18    33.33    69.32    43.16P    0.08R    0.00  
Burnley          5   10   +4       2.40    78.66     2.78    70.20    10.93    10.05     4.25     9.45    35.64    15.53P    1.05R    0.08  
Nott'm_Forest    5   10   +4       3.35    86.60     4.36    71.26    10.73    11.85     4.49    10.31    39.31    16.78P    0.71R    0.06  
Leicester        5   10   +2       2.05    74.36     0.37    76.85    10.80    18.14    11.67    22.98    59.85    32.95P    0.20R    0.02  
Bournemouth      5    9   -6       4.32    91.83    -2.16    50.19    11.10   -31.21     0.08     0.23     2.16     0.51P   33.05R    9.75  
Watford          5    8   +5       0.09    51.82     3.25    77.23    11.23    25.42    13.24    25.53    61.56    35.43P    0.24R    0.02  
Wigan            5    8   +4      -1.63    29.55    -0.34    77.18    11.77    24.35    14.74    26.61    60.57    36.85P    0.35R    0.04  
Reading          5    8   +1      -0.17    47.94    -1.00    75.58    11.72    18.50    11.13    21.57    55.20    31.19P    0.49R    0.04  
Leeds_United     5    8   +1       1.63    71.51     1.66    63.24    10.88    -0.50     1.00     2.80    15.80     5.37P    4.50R    0.64  
Blackburn        5    7   +3      -0.91    38.92     1.38    66.23    11.00     7.56     2.06     5.24    23.97     9.56P    2.48R    0.30  
Huddersfield     5    7   +3       0.53    58.24     3.49    56.82    10.62    -6.91     0.19     0.64     5.98     1.63P   12.39R    2.25  
Brighton         5    7   +1      -0.93    38.31    -0.56    70.49    10.71    12.03     3.93     9.28    36.68    16.65P    0.84R    0.08  
Derby            5    7   +0       0.21    53.58     0.01    62.20    10.78    -1.42     0.73     2.14    13.67     4.56P    5.39R    0.74  
Middlesbrough    5    6   +0      -0.24    47.59     0.96    61.18    10.81    -1.35     0.61     1.84    12.02     3.93P    6.46R    1.01  
Ipswich          5    4   +0      -1.81    28.01     1.54    56.12    10.70    -5.95     0.17     0.61     5.28     1.50P   13.95R    2.80  
Charlton         4    4   -1      -1.99    25.11    -1.75    61.25    11.07    -1.41     0.76     2.04    12.64     4.42P    6.62R    1.07  
Doncaster        4    4   -1      -0.61    43.77     0.45    49.88    11.26   -18.66     0.05     0.22     2.24     0.54P   33.36R    9.91  
Birmingham       5    4   -2      -3.17    15.26    -2.46    61.97    10.84     0.74     0.75     2.08    13.38     4.72P    5.52R    0.83  
Barnsley         5    4   -7      -1.11    37.96    -4.07    47.62    10.44   -27.39     0.01     0.05     0.89     0.18P   40.44R   12.51  
Sheff_Wed        5    3   -2      -2.87    16.53    -0.61    53.39    10.64   -10.67     0.09     0.31     3.11     0.84P   20.44R    4.71  
Yeovil           5    3   -6      -1.42    32.73    -2.12    38.57    10.42   -40.11     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P   73.65R   44.02  
Millwall         5    2   -5      -4.47     5.89    -4.57    49.77    10.40   -16.87     0.02     0.08     1.29     0.32P   31.36R    8.09  
Bolton           5    2   -7      -4.09     8.44    -5.86    61.96    11.12    -1.36     0.81     2.26    13.98     5.01P    6.21R    1.02  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 September 2013, Preston 2 1 Oldham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient    5   15  +11       6.41    98.34     8.34    76.61    11.10    18.96     5.65    16.24    60.96    25.75P    0.37R    0.02  
Wolverhampton    5   13   +8       3.23    86.84     3.29    92.33    11.48    44.89    46.67    69.71    94.28    77.99P    0.01R    0.00  
Peterborough     6   13   +7       1.55    66.34     1.62    88.02    11.68    41.21    30.30    55.45    88.85    65.58P    0.04R    0.00  
Rotherham        6   12   +4       4.79    91.08     5.75    58.43    11.40   -11.36     0.23     0.96     9.62     2.31P   16.16R    2.44  
Bradford         6   11   +9       3.45    84.61    10.13    58.14    11.23    -3.93     0.19     0.80     9.45     2.11P   15.79R    2.12  
Preston          6   10   +4       1.73    69.55     4.01    70.01    10.86    11.57     1.55     5.87    37.54    12.78P    1.74R    0.10  
Crawley_Town     6   10   +2       2.51    78.36     3.65    63.89    10.95    -0.32     0.44     1.93    18.86     4.99P    6.22R    0.65  
MK_Dons          6   10   +2       0.47    55.40    -0.05    76.58    10.77    19.61     5.23    15.68    61.50    28.44P    0.37R    0.02  
Brentford        6    9   -1      -0.72    41.61    -3.27    66.42    10.75     2.69     0.78     2.97    25.15     7.98P    3.62R    0.34  
Swindon          6    8   +3      -2.25    24.90    -0.07    76.57    10.63    23.82     4.89    15.36    62.15    29.84P    0.38R    0.01  
Colchester       6    8   -1       0.45    56.89     0.12    54.30    10.41   -14.72     0.03     0.21     4.01     0.81P   24.45R    3.62  
Walsall          5    7   -1       0.01    51.10    -1.21    62.37    11.05    -2.99     0.38     1.53    15.63     4.30P    8.40R    1.01  
Port_Vale        6    7   -3      -0.06    50.83    -1.05    50.99    11.12   -22.05     0.03     0.15     2.87     0.59P   37.23R    8.43  
Oldham           6    6   -1      -1.15    37.16     0.90    53.55    10.42   -12.61     0.02     0.15     3.44     0.67P   26.48R    4.47  
Shrewsbury       5    6   -1       0.36    55.92     0.82    57.39    10.77    -8.83     0.07     0.38     7.16     1.53P   16.94R    2.42  
Stevenage        6    5   -2      -2.51    23.39    -0.96    54.78    10.58   -10.02     0.06     0.23     4.41     1.05P   22.68R    3.67  
Crewe            6    5   -7      -0.79    42.77    -2.69    49.30    10.54   -25.68     0.01     0.05     1.49     0.27P   42.54R   10.74  
Tranmere         6    5   -7      -2.86    20.68    -6.39    55.92    10.45   -13.27     0.05     0.24     5.19     1.19P   19.68R    2.83  
Sheff_Utd        6    4   -6      -5.23     5.89    -7.51    64.35    10.82     2.13     0.46     1.95    20.03     6.65P    5.49R    0.54  
Bristol_City     5    3   -2      -4.05     9.24    -2.17    68.30    12.45    12.12     2.12     6.66    34.47    13.97P    4.47R    0.60  
Gillingham       6    3   -6      -2.83    18.62    -1.93    47.22    11.07   -23.40     0.01     0.05     1.34     0.27P   49.85R   15.50  
Carlisle         6    2  -13      -4.08     9.80    -9.31    40.40    10.20   -42.99     0.00     0.01     0.20     0.04P   75.34R   37.43  
Coventry         6    1   +6      -9.20     0.29     2.89    64.82    11.16    19.97     0.72     2.81    23.27     8.58P    5.20R    0.50  
Notts_County     5    1   -5      -5.84     2.24    -4.92    57.65    11.12    -4.79     0.11     0.58     8.13     2.32P   16.55R    2.53  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 September 2013, Burton_Albion 0 2 Oxford_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield          6   16   +8       6.25    97.68     5.73    85.24    10.40    29.38    39.87    71.05    91.46    77.14P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd            6   14   +8       5.27    94.41     7.33    76.67    10.56    19.89    12.91    39.32    71.42    47.26P    0.13R    0.05  
AFC_Wimbledon         6   13   +4       5.67    95.38     5.35    61.99    10.46    -5.61     0.91     4.97    20.07     7.53P    3.89R    1.38  
Fleetwood_Town        6   12   +5       3.27    83.42     4.17    66.74    10.55     4.71     2.42    11.55    35.11    16.48P    1.40R    0.46  
Exeter                6   11   +2       1.52    67.83     0.11    68.45    10.46     5.95     3.22    14.22    40.92    20.66P    0.90R    0.28  
Burton_Albion         6   11   +1       3.02    81.44     1.42    65.67    10.67     0.14     1.95     9.47    30.92    13.95P    1.93R    0.64  
Morecambe             6   10   +1       2.31    76.31     1.89    64.82    10.59     1.23     1.63     8.19    28.42    12.46P    2.36R    0.81  
Wycombe               6   10   +1       1.77    70.65     0.93    65.34    10.42     1.84     1.66     8.67    30.04    13.60P    1.90R    0.67  
Newport_County        6    9   +2       2.37    76.94     4.66    48.42    10.54   -23.05     0.04     0.39     2.53     0.74P   33.01R   18.06  
Mansfield             6    9   +2       1.79    70.92     3.57    57.69    10.93    -7.45     0.48     2.75    12.25     4.62P    9.47R    3.99  
Southend              6    9   +0       0.17    52.10    -0.95    70.33    10.60     9.76     4.63    18.99    48.14    26.79P    0.67R    0.18  
Plymouth              6    9   +0       1.42    67.27     0.76    60.36    10.04    -4.21     0.46     3.13    15.21     5.60P    4.84R    1.70  
Rochdale              6    8   +2      -0.15    49.38     2.15    68.30    10.67    10.14     3.26    14.62    41.39    21.35P    1.07R    0.37  
Bury                  6    7   +2      -2.19    26.52     0.52    71.51    11.50    16.80     7.24    24.18    53.42    32.83P    0.76R    0.28  
Scunthorpe            6    7   +1      -3.57    14.20    -2.60    70.37    11.14    13.81     5.69    20.61    49.31    29.47P    0.81R    0.26  
Bristol_Rovers        6    7   -1      -1.11    37.72    -0.85    57.62    10.35    -7.62     0.34     2.12    11.02     3.92P    8.19R    3.21  
Portsmouth            6    6   -2      -4.21    11.24    -5.02    75.08    11.44    20.48    11.91    35.77    65.18    45.47P    0.31R    0.11  
Dag_&_Red             6    6   -3      -1.77    30.01    -2.28    53.88    10.32   -13.43     0.11     0.95     5.87     1.92P   15.45R    6.99  
Torquay               6    6   -4      -1.82    29.75    -3.46    58.33    10.38    -7.80     0.37     2.45    11.92     4.58P    7.52R    3.11  
Cheltenham            6    5   -6      -2.62    21.95    -5.01    59.20    10.42    -6.84     0.43     2.82    13.69     5.36P    6.71R    2.62  
Northampton           6    4   -3      -4.28     9.37    -3.16    56.16    10.43    -7.16     0.20     1.50     8.89     3.31P   10.75R    4.74  
York                  6    4   -5      -3.04    17.57    -3.39    48.16     9.84   -20.34     0.02     0.18     1.52     0.42P   32.13R   17.10  
Hartlepool            6    2   -6      -6.26     2.24    -6.19    57.07    10.67    -4.80     0.24     2.03    10.59     4.36P    9.69R    4.25  
Accrington_Stanley    6    1   -9      -5.17     3.81    -5.67    44.77     9.94   -25.82     0.01     0.07     0.72     0.19P   46.13R   28.73  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 September 2013, Aldershot 1 0 Macclesfield; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd     7   17  +10       5.92    95.93     7.61    77.96    10.14    21.74    13.07    57.68    22.69P    0.07R    0.01  
Nuneaton          7   17   +7       8.41    99.20     8.40    71.32    10.06     8.79     3.64    31.25     7.88P    0.49R    0.05  
Barnet            7   14   +7       0.27    52.00     0.38    84.23    10.48    33.40    33.22    78.64    47.99P    0.01R    0.00  
Lincoln_City      7   13   +3       3.32    81.98     2.82    65.82     9.94     2.45     1.22    15.19     3.69P    1.80R    0.20  
Halifax           7   13   -1       5.23    92.23     2.09    55.91    11.09   -19.83     0.25     4.10     0.76P   16.79R    4.14  
Forest_Green      7   12  +10       0.12    50.92     6.38    75.84    10.07    26.16     9.44    50.69    20.05P    0.16R    0.00  
Alfreton_Town     7   12   +1       3.15    81.11     2.35    61.51    10.36    -6.31     0.54     8.14     1.68P    5.67R    0.97  
Kidderminster     7   12   +1      -0.13    47.95    -2.97    78.40    10.17    21.60    13.94    59.49    26.60P    0.08R    0.00  
Southport         7   12   -2       3.54    83.42    -0.16    60.04    10.09   -11.76     0.39     5.99     1.16P    6.90R    1.03  
Hereford          7   11   +2      -0.93    39.84    -1.52    69.89    10.15    10.81     3.19    27.52     8.64P    0.73R    0.05  
Grimsby           7   11   +2      -0.44    45.41    -0.83    76.55     9.93    20.52     9.90    52.78    21.83P    0.11R    0.00  
Braintree_Town    7   11   +1       2.40    75.58     2.45    62.36    10.14    -2.37     0.52     9.01     1.94P    4.25R    0.60  
Luton             7   10   +3      -0.89    40.21     1.07    74.05    10.02    19.36     6.37    43.10    16.07P    0.24R    0.01  
Salisbury         7   10   +0       2.03    72.41     2.41    54.59    10.89   -13.39     0.16     2.98     0.66P   18.54R    4.64  
Welling           7    8   +0       0.33    55.58     3.14    53.52    11.17   -13.19     0.14     2.80     0.64P   22.24R    6.17  
Tamworth          7    8   -2       0.05    52.15     0.43    52.99     9.72   -14.68     0.02     1.25     0.21P   20.15R    4.39  
Gateshead         7    7   -3      -1.54    34.51    -1.31    58.46    10.05    -6.03     0.20     4.53     0.94P    8.83R    1.64  
Dartford          7    7   -5      -2.14    28.23    -4.35    54.44     9.85   -13.93     0.07     1.91     0.38P   16.50R    3.30  
Wrexham           7    5   -6      -7.21     1.89   -10.13    65.84    10.01     5.45     1.34    15.84     5.29P    1.84R    0.18  
Woking            7    4   -6      -4.29    11.05    -3.64    47.97    10.00   -22.52     0.01     0.46     0.08P   38.50R   11.79  
Chester           7    4   -8      -2.32    25.23    -2.41    41.54    10.38   -33.05     0.00     0.15     0.03P   64.44R   33.17  
Macclesfield      7    3   -4      -6.04     3.27    -3.31    56.06    10.11    -4.40     0.12     2.90     0.74P   12.99R    2.62  
Hyde_United       7    2  -12      -4.37     8.43    -6.28    43.51     9.90   -32.69     0.00     0.12     0.02P   57.32R   24.86  
Aldershot         7    0   +2     -12.68     0.00    -2.62    67.97    10.33    23.88     2.24    23.48    10.05P    1.36R    0.17  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10