Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 8 September 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 1 September 2013, Arsenal 1 0 Tottenham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool         3    9   +3       4.03    95.30     1.80    70.02     9.22    22.27    11.55    26.49    43.29    59.89    85.46     0.01R    0.00  
Chelsea           3    7   +3       1.37    77.30     0.62    72.57     9.28    29.56    18.71    37.96    55.79    71.34    90.73     0.01R    0.00  
Man_City          3    6   +5      -0.79    31.08     0.83    72.94     9.12    33.90    20.57    40.11    57.94    73.16    91.75     0.01R    0.00  
Arsenal           3    6   +1       0.40    53.34    -1.26    69.05     9.38    24.19    10.45    24.18    40.07    56.21    83.23     0.05R    0.01  
Stoke             3    6   +1       2.25    83.52     1.37    47.74     8.74    -6.51     0.04     0.18     0.55     1.49     7.58     7.95R    1.26  
Tottenham         3    6   +1       1.03    64.99    -0.24    63.69     9.32    15.40     3.56    10.12    19.73    32.73    64.88     0.17R    0.02  
Man_Utd           3    4   +2      -1.12    33.17     0.51    76.57     8.89    41.61    34.36    57.76    73.81    85.23    96.23     0.00R    0.00  
West_Ham          3    4   +1      -0.41    44.67     0.53    45.70     8.96    -8.03     0.01     0.11     0.38     1.04     5.52    12.70R    2.67  
Norwich           3    4   +0      -0.07    50.96    -0.02    42.90     8.93   -14.24     0.01     0.06     0.19     0.55     3.15    20.78R    5.07  
Southampton       3    4   +0       0.09    54.32     0.27    45.05     9.07   -10.72     0.02     0.13     0.42     1.04     5.04    14.63R    3.23  
Cardiff           3    4   -1       1.20    73.56     0.86    41.43     9.33   -17.11     0.00     0.05     0.18     0.47     2.63    27.21R    8.05  
Newcastle         3    4   -3       0.55    62.58    -1.82    44.93     9.11   -14.07     0.02     0.10     0.36     0.98     4.85    15.71R    3.64  
Aston_Villa       3    3   +0       0.78    65.64     3.06    46.16     9.18    -7.50     0.02     0.15     0.47     1.24     6.23    12.51R    2.60  
Crystal_Palace    3    3   +0       0.18    54.68     1.81    32.36     8.75   -30.76     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.02     0.21    65.78R   35.17  
Everton           3    3   +0      -2.06    18.16    -1.35    56.07     9.11     7.66     0.56     2.10     5.08    10.26    31.22     1.20R    0.14  
Swansea           3    3   -2       0.20    54.81    -0.12    47.30     9.08    -6.99     0.04     0.19     0.60     1.61     7.62     9.78R    1.82  
Fulham            3    3   -2      -0.55    41.18    -1.23    47.17     9.16    -7.68     0.05     0.21     0.73     1.67     7.42    10.26R    1.93  
Hull              3    3   -3       0.94    69.16     0.36    34.84     8.55   -25.31     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.37    55.45R   23.07  
Sunderland        3    1   -3      -3.08     9.82    -3.04    40.83     8.80   -14.61     0.00     0.02     0.10     0.29     1.91    27.38R    7.07  
West_Brom         3    1   -3      -3.01    10.20    -2.92    43.77     9.12   -11.06     0.02     0.09     0.29     0.74     3.97    18.41R    4.23  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 August 2013, Barnsley 2 1 Huddersfield; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Blackpool        5   13   +5       5.02    95.26     3.28    75.85    10.97    15.12     9.89    20.07    55.35    28.01P    0.25R    0.02  
QPR              5   13   +4       4.70    94.32     1.91    80.12    11.29    20.26    19.07    33.13    69.58    43.15P    0.08R    0.01  
Burnley          5   10   +4       2.39    78.72     2.76    70.21    10.96    10.07     4.11     9.50    35.53    15.44P    1.05R    0.11  
Nott'm_Forest    5   10   +4       3.38    86.74     4.38    71.30    10.82    11.93     4.48    10.49    39.45    17.17P    0.76R    0.06  
Leicester        5   10   +2       2.05    74.35     0.38    76.74    10.89    17.98    11.56    22.81    59.03    32.61P    0.23R    0.02  
Bournemouth      5    9   -6       4.33    92.01    -2.15    50.28    11.08   -31.00     0.07     0.23     2.10     0.54P   32.91R    9.58  
Watford          5    8   +5       0.12    52.20     3.30    76.86    11.33    24.95    12.84    24.59    60.50    34.38P    0.33R    0.02  
Wigan            5    8   +4      -1.65    29.20    -0.37    77.61    11.86    25.05    15.78    28.15    62.25    38.54P    0.35R    0.02  
Reading          5    8   +1      -0.17    48.03    -1.00    75.49    11.66    18.35    10.89    21.29    55.00    30.72P    0.48R    0.05  
Leeds_United     5    8   +1       1.66    71.80     1.70    63.05    10.85    -0.76     0.99     2.77    15.50     5.28P    4.63R    0.68  
Blackburn        5    7   +3      -0.91    38.77     1.38    66.08    10.96     7.29     1.91     4.95    23.50     9.27P    2.53R    0.33  
Huddersfield     5    7   +3       0.49    57.52     3.42    57.09    10.70    -6.53     0.27     0.76     6.32     1.81P   12.10R    2.12  
Brighton         5    7   +1      -0.97    37.73    -0.62    70.71    10.71    12.37     4.06     9.63    37.65    17.26P    0.86R    0.07  
Derby            5    7   +0       0.20    53.65     0.02    61.94    10.84    -1.79     0.74     2.10    13.33     4.37P    5.60R    0.75  
Middlesbrough    5    6   +0      -0.22    47.82     1.00    60.88    10.82    -1.81     0.57     1.65    11.41     3.64P    6.75R    1.06  
Ipswich          5    4   +0      -1.84    27.73     1.50    56.31    10.70    -5.69     0.19     0.64     5.34     1.55P   13.39R    2.71  
Charlton         4    4   -1      -2.01    24.84    -1.78    61.35    11.07    -1.26     0.78     2.08    12.78     4.52P    6.44R    0.99  
Doncaster        4    4   -1      -0.60    43.92     0.47    49.91    11.34   -18.64     0.07     0.21     2.18     0.60P   33.13R    9.91  
Birmingham       5    4   -2      -3.14    15.62    -2.44    61.88    10.95     0.64     0.72     2.14    13.73     4.74P    5.78R    0.88  
Barnsley         5    4   -7      -1.08    38.30    -4.04    47.62    10.46   -27.48     0.02     0.06     0.87     0.21P   40.93R   12.72  
Sheff_Wed        5    3   -2      -2.88    16.21    -0.63    53.55    10.75   -10.46     0.12     0.38     3.37     0.93P   20.22R    4.81  
Yeovil           5    3   -6      -1.38    33.05    -2.07    38.36    10.33   -40.55     0.01     0.01     0.12     0.01P   74.41R   44.47  
Millwall         5    2   -5      -4.47     5.83    -4.56    49.89    10.34   -16.71     0.03     0.09     1.35     0.34P   30.64R    7.63  
Bolton           5    2   -7      -4.08     8.60    -5.84    62.02    11.09    -1.34     0.84     2.25    13.76     4.92P    6.15R    0.96  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 8 September 2013, Coventry 2 0 Colchester; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient    5   15  +11       6.40    98.42     8.35    76.70    11.15    19.09     5.95    16.97    61.35    26.81P    0.34R    0.01  
Wolverhampton    5   13   +8       3.23    86.73     3.30    92.15    11.48    44.48    46.04    69.26    94.21    77.64P    0.01R    0.00  
Peterborough     6   13   +7       1.56    66.50     1.63    88.16    11.58    41.35    30.95    56.41    89.53    66.84P    0.04R    0.00  
Rotherham        6   12   +4       4.76    90.77     5.70    58.65    11.55   -10.95     0.30     1.08    10.39     2.57P   16.12R    2.52  
Bradford         6   11   +9       3.38    84.04    10.01    58.26    11.18    -3.77     0.24     0.90     9.68     2.33P   15.62R    2.06  
Crawley_Town     6   10   +2       2.52    78.30     3.66    63.97    10.89    -0.18     0.43     1.95    19.49     4.95P    6.33R    0.56  
MK_Dons          6   10   +2       0.44    54.85    -0.09    76.47    10.75    19.45     5.14    15.30    61.56    28.25P    0.35R    0.02  
Brentford        6    9   -1      -0.65    42.45    -3.18    65.99    10.58     2.06     0.70     2.74    23.90     7.44P    3.60R    0.25  
Swindon          6    8   +3      -2.23    25.05    -0.03    76.42    10.68    23.53     5.13    15.69    62.01    29.91P    0.33R    0.02  
Colchester       6    8   -1       0.47    57.40     0.17    54.24    10.39   -14.80     0.03     0.19     3.87     0.76P   24.61R    3.74  
Preston          5    7   +3       0.58    58.56     3.71    68.53    10.99    10.84     1.29     4.84    33.20    11.01P    2.57R    0.21  
Walsall          5    7   -1      -0.05    50.12    -1.28    62.80    11.09    -2.33     0.40     1.78    16.98     4.91P    7.89R    0.79  
Port_Vale        6    7   -3      -0.09    50.54    -1.13    51.16    11.23   -21.69     0.05     0.18     3.11     0.67P   37.32R    8.64  
Oldham           5    6   +0      -0.19    48.06     1.25    54.60    10.76   -12.08     0.03     0.22     4.82     0.97P   24.17R    4.06  
Shrewsbury       5    6   -1       0.33    55.44     0.77    57.59    10.87    -8.56     0.11     0.53     7.67     1.75P   16.99R    2.39  
Stevenage        6    5   -2      -2.46    23.93    -0.91    54.79    10.56   -10.00     0.04     0.23     4.69     1.10P   22.82R    3.62  
Crewe            6    5   -7      -0.79    42.89    -2.69    49.44    10.62   -25.44     0.01     0.07     1.71     0.28P   42.67R   10.54  
Tranmere         6    5   -7      -2.89    20.51    -6.40    56.03    10.64   -13.12     0.07     0.32     5.64     1.36P   19.94R    3.01  
Sheff_Utd        6    4   -6      -5.24     6.13    -7.51    64.52    10.75     2.37     0.52     2.09    20.55     6.70P    5.33R    0.50  
Bristol_City     5    3   -2      -3.98     9.52    -2.07    67.69    12.41    11.18     1.79     5.84    33.14    12.94P    4.87R    0.54  
Gillingham       6    3   -6      -2.86    18.54    -1.97    47.14    10.98   -23.49     0.00     0.03     1.24     0.24P   50.53R   15.67  
Carlisle         6    2  -13      -4.07     9.89    -9.27    40.28    10.17   -43.07     0.00     0.01     0.17     0.02P   75.97R   37.86  
Coventry         6    1   +6      -9.18     0.25     2.92    64.41    11.20    19.35     0.69     2.79    22.42     8.21P    5.82R    0.62  
Notts_County     5    1   -5      -5.84     2.23    -4.93    58.01    10.99    -4.24     0.10     0.60     8.68     2.37P   15.77R    2.35  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 September 2013, Burton_Albion 0 2 Oxford_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield          6   16   +8       6.27    97.74     5.78    85.32    10.34    29.49    40.48    71.39    91.75    77.38P    0.01R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd            6   14   +8       5.32    94.53     7.39    76.40    10.46    19.50    12.37    38.07    70.74    46.01P    0.10R    0.03  
AFC_Wimbledon         6   13   +4       5.66    95.36     5.32    62.08    10.38    -5.44     0.90     5.12    19.83     7.62P    3.73R    1.36  
Fleetwood_Town        6   12   +5       3.25    82.87     4.13    66.95    10.39     5.05     2.43    11.41    35.63    16.61P    1.27R    0.39  
Exeter                6   11   +2       1.44    67.06     0.02    68.52    10.52     6.08     3.50    14.68    41.10    20.90P    0.90R    0.29  
Burton_Albion         6   11   +1       3.04    81.41     1.47    65.79    10.62     0.30     2.04     9.76    31.53    14.27P    1.87R    0.58  
Morecambe             6   10   +1       2.31    76.42     1.88    64.92    10.41     1.32     1.61     8.15    28.51    12.50P    2.08R    0.77  
Wycombe               6   10   +1       1.75    70.35     0.90    65.32    10.39     1.82     1.63     8.47    29.77    13.05P    1.87R    0.62  
Newport_County        6    9   +2       2.39    77.01     4.69    48.21    10.42   -23.51     0.02     0.32     2.18     0.62P   33.68R   18.64  
Mansfield             6    9   +2       1.85    71.69     3.67    57.30    10.88    -8.11     0.45     2.45    11.29     4.22P   10.03R    4.44  
Southend              6    9   +0       0.19    52.38    -0.92    70.21    10.55     9.62     4.54    18.61    47.95    26.45P    0.65R    0.20  
Plymouth              6    9   +0       1.39    67.09     0.73    60.57    10.09    -3.91     0.47     3.33    15.75     6.03P    4.65R    1.74  
Rochdale              6    8   +2      -0.13    49.76     2.17    68.14    10.74     9.91     3.22    14.55    40.82    21.19P    1.15R    0.40  
Bury                  6    7   +2      -2.23    25.98     0.50    71.42    11.42    16.71     6.80    24.36    53.43    32.95P    0.80R    0.30  
Scunthorpe            6    7   +1      -3.51    14.87    -2.52    70.05    11.26    13.32     5.71    20.71    48.18    29.18P    0.92R    0.30  
Bristol_Rovers        6    7   -1      -1.12    37.60    -0.87    57.67    10.37    -7.59     0.32     2.16    10.99     4.00P    8.21R    3.25  
Portsmouth            6    6   -2      -4.23    10.96    -5.03    75.17    11.38    20.59    11.97    35.83    65.96    46.03P    0.38R    0.12  
Dag_&_Red             6    6   -3      -1.79    29.56    -2.33    54.13    10.28   -13.07     0.12     0.96     5.99     1.94P   14.78R    6.57  
Torquay               6    6   -4      -1.82    29.78    -3.45    58.27    10.33    -7.78     0.35     2.41    11.77     4.48P    7.61R    3.08  
Cheltenham            6    5   -6      -2.65    21.68    -5.10    59.73    10.46    -6.12     0.47     3.12    14.82     5.83P    6.09R    2.45  
Northampton           6    4   -3      -4.31     9.20    -3.20    56.16    10.46    -7.12     0.27     1.70     8.96     3.50P   10.84R    4.62  
York                  6    4   -5      -2.99    17.93    -3.32    48.02     9.77   -20.48     0.01     0.14     1.48     0.37P   32.39R   17.03  
Hartlepool            6    2   -6      -6.30     2.22    -6.23    57.13    10.72    -4.77     0.32     2.22    10.82     4.67P    9.63R    4.12  
Accrington_Stanley    6    1   -9      -5.15     3.75    -5.68    44.76     9.89   -25.81     0.01     0.07     0.77     0.21P   46.38R   28.70  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 September 2013, Aldershot 1 0 Macclesfield; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd     7   17  +10       5.95    95.99     7.64    77.93    10.18    21.67    13.27    57.73    22.62P    0.05R    0.01  
Nuneaton          7   17   +7       8.39    99.22     8.36    71.37    10.02     8.84     3.76    31.21     8.17P    0.50R    0.04  
Barnet            7   14   +7       0.36    53.14     0.53    83.93    10.49    32.90    32.70    77.75    47.11P    0.02R    0.00  
Lincoln_City      7   13   +3       3.32    82.06     2.83    65.76    10.08     2.33     1.32    15.59     3.90P    1.87R    0.20  
Halifax           7   13   -1       5.17    91.90     2.00    56.10    11.24   -19.49     0.30     4.53     0.90P   16.95R    4.02  
Forest_Green      7   12  +10       0.14    51.08     6.42    75.62    10.07    25.78     9.27    49.90    19.84P    0.15R    0.01  
Alfreton_Town     7   12   +1       3.14    80.95     2.33    61.63    10.30    -6.14     0.54     8.60     1.79P    5.47R    0.86  
Kidderminster     7   12   +1      -0.14    47.86    -2.98    78.49    10.09    21.71    14.09    60.00    26.92P    0.05R    0.00  
Southport         7   12   -2       3.54    83.43    -0.17    60.05    10.15   -11.80     0.40     6.20     1.22P    7.10R    1.10  
Hereford          7   11   +2      -0.95    39.70    -1.55    70.02    10.01    11.02     3.09    27.87     8.70P    0.60R    0.04  
Grimsby           7   11   +2      -0.41    45.55    -0.79    76.28     9.95    20.10     9.68    51.50    21.38P    0.12R    0.01  
Braintree_Town    7   11   +1       2.37    75.22     2.38    62.49    10.16    -2.10     0.65     9.51     2.11P    4.17R    0.56  
Luton             7   10   +3      -0.91    40.09     1.06    73.91     9.97    19.13     6.38    42.22    15.88P    0.27R    0.02  
Salisbury         7   10   +0       2.17    73.64     2.57    54.32    10.80   -13.75     0.17     2.91     0.63P   19.09R    4.59  
Welling           7    8   +0       0.24    54.78     3.00    54.04    11.28   -12.29     0.17     3.18     0.73P   21.30R    5.62  
Tamworth          7    8   -2       0.02    51.90     0.37    53.08     9.83   -14.51     0.05     1.34     0.23P   20.32R    4.46  
Gateshead         7    7   -3      -1.55    34.48    -1.31    58.48    10.07    -5.99     0.19     4.49     0.99P    8.81R    1.57  
Dartford          7    7   -5      -2.11    28.27    -4.30    54.43     9.88   -13.88     0.06     1.89     0.37P   16.63R    3.51  
Wrexham           7    5   -6      -7.24     1.95   -10.16    65.85    10.11     5.53     1.32    16.30     5.52P    1.98R    0.20  
Woking            7    4   -6      -4.28    10.93    -3.60    48.12    10.01   -22.31     0.01     0.49     0.08P   37.64R   11.45  
Chester           7    4   -8      -2.27    25.80    -2.33    41.19    10.50   -33.57     0.01     0.16     0.03P   65.43R   34.28  
Macclesfield      7    3   -4      -6.04     3.21    -3.33    56.07    10.13    -4.29     0.12     2.97     0.67P   12.93R    2.61  
Hyde_United       7    2  -12      -4.38     8.41    -6.30    43.47     9.85   -32.81     0.00     0.11     0.01P   57.22R   24.68  
Aldershot         7    0   +2     -12.75     0.00    -2.68    67.98    10.36    23.91     2.46    23.56    10.22P    1.35R    0.16  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10