Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 7 September 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 1 September 2013, Arsenal 1 0 Tottenham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool         3    9   +3       4.00    95.25     1.76    69.98     9.31    22.24    11.69    26.80    43.22    59.87    85.26     0.01R    0.00  
Chelsea           3    7   +3       1.37    77.19     0.64    72.35     9.30    29.15    17.83    36.80    54.78    70.21    90.27     0.01R    0.00  
Man_City          3    6   +5      -0.79    31.20     0.84    73.07     9.11    34.00    20.72    40.72    58.75    73.74    92.08     0.00R    0.00  
Arsenal           3    6   +1       0.42    53.65    -1.25    68.99     9.32    24.10    10.58    24.26    39.87    56.09    83.13     0.04R    0.00  
Stoke             3    6   +1       2.27    83.94     1.41    47.40     8.64    -6.96     0.02     0.15     0.52     1.39     7.02     8.35R    1.30  
Tottenham         3    6   +1       1.00    64.34    -0.28    63.91     9.39    15.82     4.02    10.78    20.57    33.75    65.65     0.16R    0.01  
Man_Utd           3    4   +2      -1.12    33.17     0.52    76.49     8.96    41.47    34.30    57.17    73.49    84.87    96.10     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham          3    4   +1      -0.42    44.67     0.51    45.93     8.95    -7.67     0.03     0.17     0.49     1.15     5.86    12.13R    2.42  
Norwich           3    4   +0      -0.05    51.48     0.00    42.73     8.92   -14.52     0.01     0.06     0.20     0.56     2.90    21.51R    5.23  
Southampton       3    4   +0       0.07    53.82     0.22    45.01     9.05   -10.86     0.04     0.12     0.37     1.02     5.02    14.65R    3.19  
Cardiff           3    4   -1       1.20    73.52     0.84    41.51     9.44   -16.94     0.02     0.09     0.24     0.66     2.92    27.33R    8.04  
Newcastle         3    4   -3       0.56    62.65    -1.81    44.96     9.12   -14.00     0.03     0.10     0.35     0.91     4.92    15.59R    3.57  
Aston_Villa       3    3   +0       0.80    66.01     3.09    46.23     9.23    -7.41     0.03     0.16     0.47     1.21     6.37    12.56R    2.62  
Crystal_Palace    3    3   +0       0.18    54.71     1.82    32.52     8.79   -30.49     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.27    65.33R   34.80  
Everton           3    3   +0      -2.06    18.48    -1.34    55.98     9.14     7.54     0.54     2.06     5.04    10.29    31.30     1.25R    0.14  
Swansea           3    3   -2       0.20    54.81    -0.15    47.36     8.98    -6.86     0.04     0.22     0.55     1.57     7.28     9.50R    1.82  
Fulham            3    3   -2      -0.57    40.83    -1.25    47.26     9.13    -7.58     0.05     0.24     0.68     1.64     7.70    10.12R    1.97  
Hull              3    3   -3       0.96    69.45     0.37    34.73     8.52   -25.45     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.31    55.95R   23.40  
Sunderland        3    1   -3      -3.09     9.48    -3.05    41.08     8.84   -14.17     0.01     0.04     0.11     0.33     2.01    26.39R    6.83  
West_Brom         3    1   -3      -3.00    10.25    -2.89    43.54     9.07   -11.42     0.02     0.08     0.27     0.68     3.64    19.12R    4.67  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 August 2013, Barnsley 2 1 Huddersfield; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Blackpool        5   13   +5       5.02    95.37     3.30    75.98    10.93    15.31    10.00    20.38    56.23    28.74P    0.23R    0.01  
QPR              5   13   +4       4.75    94.43     1.99    79.72    11.29    19.67    18.14    32.11    68.24    41.98P    0.15R    0.01  
Burnley          5   10   +4       2.39    78.52     2.78    70.16    11.04    10.01     4.24     9.54    35.74    15.42P    1.11R    0.09  
Nott'm_Forest    5   10   +4       3.36    86.49     4.37    71.25    10.77    11.87     4.60    10.43    39.19    16.70P    0.76R    0.08  
Leicester        5   10   +2       2.03    74.05     0.35    76.97    10.94    18.35    12.13    23.58    59.77    33.30P    0.23R    0.01  
Bournemouth      5    9   -6       4.35    92.13    -2.12    50.07    10.95   -31.34     0.07     0.20     1.91     0.42P   33.36R    9.70  
Watford          5    8   +5       0.08    51.39     3.24    77.20    11.28    25.42    13.47    25.49    61.57    35.35P    0.25R    0.03  
Wigan            5    8   +4      -1.61    29.70    -0.32    77.36    11.85    24.61    15.35    27.57    61.36    37.79P    0.37R    0.05  
Reading          5    8   +1      -0.12    48.98    -0.91    75.24    11.84    18.02    10.83    20.99    53.92    30.41P    0.61R    0.05  
Leeds_United     5    8   +1       1.59    70.96     1.60    63.53    10.87    -0.05     1.00     2.90    16.71     5.60P    4.25R    0.54  
Blackburn        5    7   +3      -0.89    39.19     1.43    66.03    11.11     7.19     1.98     5.05    23.97     9.51P    2.72R    0.34  
Huddersfield     5    7   +3       0.48    57.35     3.40    57.19    10.63    -6.37     0.26     0.76     6.23     1.70P   11.51R    2.02  
Brighton         5    7   +1      -0.96    37.80    -0.60    70.56    10.62    12.18     4.01     9.46    36.84    16.95P    0.76R    0.06  
Derby            5    7   +0       0.22    53.74     0.03    62.05    10.80    -1.67     0.69     2.07    13.38     4.39P    5.56R    0.76  
Middlesbrough    5    6   +0      -0.27    47.11     0.92    61.22    10.80    -1.27     0.53     1.69    12.05     3.80P    6.43R    0.98  
Ipswich          5    4   +0      -1.85    27.61     1.46    56.48    10.75    -5.44     0.18     0.63     5.76     1.68P   13.53R    2.58  
Charlton         4    4   -1      -1.96    25.18    -1.70    61.18    11.07    -1.48     0.75     2.07    12.39     4.48P    6.44R    1.10  
Doncaster        4    4   -1      -0.62    43.75     0.45    49.94    11.37   -18.59     0.08     0.26     2.34     0.67P   33.19R    9.94  
Birmingham       5    4   -2      -3.12    15.67    -2.40    61.68    10.94     0.34     0.77     2.12    13.22     4.71P    6.02R    0.83  
Barnsley         5    4   -7      -1.13    37.63    -4.15    47.86    10.42   -26.95     0.02     0.06     0.89     0.21P   39.70R   12.32  
Sheff_Wed        5    3   -2      -2.86    16.58    -0.59    53.41    10.66   -10.71     0.09     0.29     3.16     0.85P   20.39R    4.67  
Yeovil           5    3   -6      -1.38    33.14    -2.09    38.26    10.21   -40.66     0.00     0.01     0.10     0.01P   75.08R   45.11  
Millwall         5    2   -5      -4.46     5.99    -4.55    49.87    10.39   -16.80     0.02     0.12     1.44     0.39P   30.90R    7.66  
Bolton           5    2   -7      -4.11     8.54    -5.89    61.84    11.14    -1.63     0.79     2.21    13.59     4.94P    6.45R    1.07  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 September 2013, Bradford 4 0 Brentford; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient    5   15  +11       6.38    98.37     8.32    76.81    11.11    19.22     5.92    16.77    61.75    26.39P    0.33R    0.02  
Wolverhampton    5   13   +8       3.20    86.44     3.23    92.48    11.49    45.18    46.63    69.78    94.41    78.10P    0.01R    0.00  
Peterborough     6   13   +7       1.49    65.69     1.51    88.29    11.54    41.58    30.77    56.07    89.65    66.62P    0.04R    0.00  
Rotherham        6   12   +4       4.71    90.74     5.63    58.77    11.39   -10.83     0.22     0.99    10.32     2.57P   15.74R    2.30  
Bradford         6   11   +9       3.46    84.67    10.14    58.07    11.35    -4.05     0.20     0.87     9.47     2.26P   16.37R    2.40  
Crawley_Town     6   10   +2       2.54    78.19     3.71    64.06    11.07    -0.11     0.41     1.98    19.95     5.16P    6.24R    0.63  
MK_Dons          6   10   +2       0.48    55.35    -0.02    76.35    10.82    19.30     5.03    14.98    61.11    27.60P    0.41R    0.02  
Brentford        6    9   -1      -0.70    41.49    -3.25    66.17    10.64     2.33     0.67     2.77    24.47     7.59P    3.54R    0.23  
Swindon          6    8   +3      -2.30    24.46    -0.14    76.76    10.73    24.04     5.00    16.12    62.96    30.69P    0.32R    0.01  
Colchester       5    8   +1       1.22    66.45     1.10    55.89    10.67   -12.60     0.07     0.31     5.68     1.13P   20.54R    2.88  
Preston          5    7   +3       0.57    58.49     3.70    68.57    11.24    10.86     1.29     5.09    33.33    11.22P    2.75R    0.24  
Walsall          5    7   -1       0.00    50.87    -1.21    62.20    11.05    -3.32     0.35     1.52    15.63     4.25P    8.41R    0.95  
Port_Vale        6    7   -3      -0.09    50.52    -1.08    51.13    11.23   -21.80     0.03     0.17     3.02     0.62P   37.01R    8.70  
Oldham           5    6   +0      -0.17    48.29     1.28    54.28    10.68   -12.60     0.04     0.21     4.32     0.89P   24.95R    4.30  
Shrewsbury       5    6   -1       0.37    56.01     0.83    57.40    10.78    -8.84     0.12     0.47     7.31     1.64P   16.99R    2.60  
Stevenage        6    5   -2      -2.46    23.72    -0.90    54.57    10.58   -10.33     0.03     0.19     4.35     1.04P   23.41R    3.98  
Crewe            6    5   -7      -0.73    43.73    -2.57    49.12    10.55   -26.03     0.01     0.05     1.55     0.26P   43.75R   10.99  
Tranmere         6    5   -7      -2.88    20.59    -6.39    55.79    10.51   -13.56     0.04     0.27     5.25     1.26P   20.41R    3.10  
Sheff_Utd        6    4   -6      -5.23     5.91    -7.54    64.43    10.88     2.26     0.50     2.06    20.66     6.94P    5.42R    0.51  
Bristol_City     5    3   -2      -4.06     8.99    -2.20    68.13    12.59    11.91     1.97     6.47    34.67    13.82P    4.84R    0.59  
Gillingham       6    3   -6      -2.85    18.29    -1.97    47.42    11.02   -23.02     0.01     0.05     1.34     0.23P   49.31R   15.09  
Carlisle         6    2  -13      -4.08     9.74    -9.31    40.57    10.16   -42.70     0.00     0.01     0.17     0.03P   74.75R   36.85  
Notts_County     5    1   -5      -5.80     2.34    -4.83    57.62    11.13    -4.90     0.15     0.63     8.56     2.45P   16.92R    2.72  
Coventry         5   -2   +4     -10.17     0.00     1.93    63.24    11.46    18.00     0.53     2.19    20.06     7.21P    7.53R    0.88  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 September 2013, Burton_Albion 0 2 Oxford_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield          6   16   +8       6.26    97.72     5.76    85.31    10.34    29.53    40.66    71.24    91.58    77.33P    0.00R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd            6   14   +8       5.31    94.40     7.37    76.47    10.60    19.59    12.96    38.21    70.99    46.20P    0.11R    0.03  
AFC_Wimbledon         6   13   +4       5.67    95.21     5.35    61.96    10.45    -5.69     0.87     5.01    19.59     7.44P    3.79R    1.38  
Fleetwood_Town        6   12   +5       3.21    82.69     4.08    67.09    10.59     5.19     2.65    12.14    36.44    17.43P    1.37R    0.45  
Exeter                6   11   +2       1.53    67.86     0.12    68.34    10.53     5.81     3.19    14.36    40.46    20.72P    0.86R    0.25  
Burton_Albion         6   11   +1       2.99    81.03     1.38    65.98    10.79     0.58     2.13    10.27    32.42    14.89P    1.95R    0.69  
Morecambe             6   10   +1       2.24    75.58     1.80    65.02    10.51     1.50     1.64     8.37    28.93    12.70P    2.22R    0.73  
Wycombe               6   10   +1       1.78    70.66     0.92    65.24    10.53     1.69     1.80     8.77    29.69    13.38P    2.14R    0.76  
Newport_County        6    9   +2       2.36    76.73     4.63    48.55    10.57   -22.90     0.03     0.40     2.55     0.72P   32.38R   17.76  
Mansfield             6    9   +2       1.83    71.15     3.63    57.41    10.87    -7.92     0.46     2.64    11.44     4.37P    9.81R    4.17  
Southend              6    9   +0       0.15    51.87    -0.96    70.31    10.55     9.76     4.50    18.86    48.06    26.81P    0.56R    0.15  
Plymouth              6    9   +0       1.42    67.38     0.79    60.42    10.06    -4.16     0.51     3.25    15.20     5.71P    4.61R    1.64  
Rochdale              6    8   +2      -0.15    49.24     2.14    68.35    10.63    10.26     3.29    14.81    41.29    21.48P    1.07R    0.38  
Bury                  6    7   +2      -2.14    26.95     0.59    71.18    11.51    16.27     6.71    23.77    52.25    32.14P    0.87R    0.32  
Scunthorpe            6    7   +1      -3.52    14.59    -2.53    70.07    11.20    13.37     5.50    20.12    48.25    28.83P    0.85R    0.32  
Bristol_Rovers        6    7   -1      -1.14    37.35    -0.89    57.68    10.46    -7.58     0.33     2.24    11.05     4.06P    8.36R    3.44  
Portsmouth            6    6   -2      -4.19    11.52    -4.98    74.97    11.25    20.27    11.29    34.86    65.38    45.10P    0.33R    0.12  
Dag_&_Red             6    6   -3      -1.79    29.65    -2.32    54.18    10.31   -13.00     0.12     1.01     6.07     2.03P   14.66R    6.48  
Torquay               6    6   -4      -1.86    29.35    -3.50    58.49    10.35    -7.48     0.38     2.50    12.28     4.63P    7.17R    2.89  
Cheltenham            6    5   -6      -2.61    22.16    -5.01    59.38    10.51    -6.62     0.42     3.03    14.02     5.56P    6.70R    2.73  
Northampton           6    4   -3      -4.26     9.52    -3.12    56.03    10.49    -7.36     0.20     1.61     8.74     3.22P   10.89R    4.71  
York                  6    4   -5      -3.00    17.70    -3.34    47.89     9.85   -20.69     0.03     0.16     1.50     0.40P   33.23R   17.78  
Hartlepool            6    2   -6      -6.27     2.29    -6.21    57.18    10.80    -4.69     0.33     2.28    11.06     4.65P    9.95R    4.29  
Accrington_Stanley    6    1   -9      -5.18     3.88    -5.72    44.74     9.97   -25.75     0.00     0.07     0.77     0.21P   46.11R   28.54  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 September 2013, Aldershot 1 0 Macclesfield; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd     7   17  +10       5.86    95.69     7.49    78.19    10.10    22.09    13.21    58.65    23.18P    0.08R    0.00  
Nuneaton          7   17   +7       8.42    99.25     8.43    71.33    10.09     8.75     3.65    31.11     8.07P    0.47R    0.04  
Barnet            7   14   +7       0.29    52.42     0.39    84.18    10.55    33.35    33.28    77.95    47.48P    0.01R    0.00  
Lincoln_City      7   13   +3       3.37    82.52     2.87    65.56    10.06     2.07     1.20    14.99     3.66P    2.02R    0.25  
Halifax           7   13   -1       5.18    92.00     2.04    56.19    11.10   -19.43     0.28     4.24     0.87P   16.17R    3.84  
Forest_Green      7   12  +10       0.15    51.46     6.44    75.55    10.07    25.71     8.86    49.23    19.61P    0.12R    0.01  
Alfreton_Town     7   12   +1       3.11    80.68     2.27    61.65    10.35    -6.02     0.56     8.61     1.78P    5.41R    0.73  
Kidderminster     7   12   +1      -0.14    47.84    -2.97    78.51    10.10    21.77    14.05    60.05    26.60P    0.05R    0.00  
Southport         7   12   -2       3.58    83.57    -0.11    59.94    10.17   -12.02     0.35     5.98     1.09P    7.13R    1.15  
Hereford          7   11   +2      -0.95    39.68    -1.54    69.98    10.24    10.94     3.46    28.04     9.15P    0.67R    0.05  
Grimsby           7   11   +2      -0.43    45.38    -0.84    76.64     9.89    20.70     9.88    52.81    21.73P    0.09R    0.01  
Braintree_Town    7   11   +1       2.34    75.03     2.38    62.54    10.10    -2.09     0.55     9.40     1.92P    4.04R    0.50  
Luton             7   10   +3      -0.90    40.09     1.03    74.11     9.97    19.45     6.41    42.90    15.94P    0.18R    0.01  
Salisbury         7   10   +0       2.12    73.09     2.57    54.25    10.99   -14.06     0.14     2.91     0.61P   19.94R    5.21  
Welling           7    8   +0       0.36    56.09     3.16    53.38    11.14   -13.34     0.14     2.82     0.55P   22.27R    6.04  
Tamworth          7    8   -2       0.06    52.27     0.43    52.88     9.76   -14.80     0.05     1.29     0.26P   20.59R    4.50  
Gateshead         7    7   -3      -1.58    34.17    -1.36    58.79     9.95    -5.53     0.20     4.66     1.07P    7.97R    1.41  
Dartford          7    7   -5      -2.12    28.32    -4.33    54.49     9.89   -13.88     0.06     1.89     0.32P   16.35R    3.29  
Wrexham           7    5   -6      -7.23     1.88   -10.13    65.74    10.07     5.35     1.21    15.55     5.22P    1.90R    0.19  
Woking            7    4   -6      -4.29    10.95    -3.64    48.08     9.94   -22.43     0.02     0.45     0.08P   37.77R   11.48  
Chester           7    4   -8      -2.28    25.70    -2.38    41.53    10.37   -33.01     0.01     0.16     0.04P   64.37R   32.95  
Macclesfield      7    3   -4      -6.02     3.21    -3.29    56.03    10.19    -4.39     0.11     2.88     0.66P   13.10R    2.77  
Hyde_United       7    2  -12      -4.34     8.42    -6.21    43.29     9.83   -33.11     0.00     0.10     0.01P   57.84R   25.39  
Aldershot         7    0   +2     -12.74     0.00    -2.68    67.96    10.40    23.92     2.32    23.34    10.09P    1.46R    0.19  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10