Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 6 September 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 1 September 2013, Arsenal 1 0 Tottenham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool         3    9   +3       4.03    95.40     1.81    69.74     9.30    21.85    11.18    25.64    41.99    58.54    84.54     0.01R    0.00  
Chelsea           3    7   +3       1.37    77.50     0.64    72.38     9.26    29.23    17.81    36.80    54.77    70.33    90.46     0.01R    0.00  
Man_City          3    6   +5      -0.79    31.31     0.80    73.22     9.17    34.31    21.16    41.27    59.12    74.09    92.08     0.01R    0.00  
Arsenal           3    6   +1       0.40    53.45    -1.28    69.27     9.37    24.61    11.04    25.19    40.84    57.42    83.63     0.02R    0.00  
Stoke             3    6   +1       2.27    83.84     1.40    47.36     8.66    -7.03     0.04     0.19     0.53     1.37     6.82     8.48R    1.35  
Tottenham         3    6   +1       1.03    64.77    -0.25    63.87     9.38    15.70     3.77    10.41    20.41    33.44    65.75     0.19R    0.02  
Man_Utd           3    4   +2      -1.12    33.14     0.51    76.53     8.87    41.48    34.19    57.38    73.70    84.96    96.35     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham          3    4   +1      -0.43    44.44     0.50    45.95     8.98    -7.66     0.02     0.10     0.39     1.12     5.98    12.09R    2.45  
Norwich           3    4   +0      -0.05    51.26    -0.00    42.84     8.88   -14.41     0.01     0.05     0.20     0.50     2.99    20.89R    4.86  
Southampton       3    4   +0       0.08    54.12     0.24    45.09     8.99   -10.75     0.02     0.11     0.36     1.00     4.88    14.40R    3.12  
Cardiff           3    4   -1       1.21    73.72     0.86    41.53     9.34   -16.87     0.01     0.06     0.17     0.50     2.62    27.02R    7.82  
Newcastle         3    4   -3       0.55    62.63    -1.80    44.89     9.13   -14.12     0.03     0.12     0.32     0.92     4.62    15.84R    3.55  
Aston_Villa       3    3   +0       0.80    66.21     3.10    46.18     9.26    -7.50     0.02     0.14     0.48     1.21     6.52    12.73R    2.71  
Crystal_Palace    3    3   +0       0.16    54.31     1.78    32.50     8.76   -30.53     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.25    65.57R   34.68  
Everton           3    3   +0      -2.07    18.30    -1.37    56.11     9.11     7.70     0.60     2.09     5.15    10.48    31.66     1.13R    0.13  
Swansea           3    3   -2       0.18    54.21    -0.15    47.38     9.07    -6.94     0.04     0.19     0.64     1.61     7.66     9.64R    1.87  
Fulham            3    3   -2      -0.55    40.82    -1.24    47.04     9.13    -7.97     0.03     0.16     0.60     1.48     7.23    10.46R    2.16  
Hull              3    3   -3       0.95    69.47     0.37    34.70     8.60   -25.47     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.39    55.96R   23.75  
Sunderland        3    1   -3      -3.08     9.80    -3.04    41.03     8.82   -14.31     0.00     0.02     0.09     0.28     1.95    26.66R    6.86  
West_Brom         3    1   -3      -2.99    10.48    -2.88    43.61     9.10   -11.33     0.02     0.09     0.25     0.69     3.62    18.90R    4.65  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 August 2013, Barnsley 2 1 Huddersfield; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Blackpool        5   13   +5       5.07    95.58     3.35    75.74    10.97    14.97     9.93    20.09    54.77    28.03P    0.24R    0.02  
QPR              5   13   +4       4.72    94.33     1.92    80.11    11.27    20.18    19.30    33.71    69.53    43.76P    0.12R    0.00  
Burnley          5   10   +4       2.39    78.59     2.76    70.09    10.99     9.89     4.15     9.18    35.48    14.94P    1.10R    0.14  
Nott'm_Forest    5   10   +4       3.36    86.62     4.35    71.28    10.72    11.99     4.67    10.55    39.38    17.02P    0.70R    0.05  
Leicester        5   10   +2       2.05    74.41     0.37    76.94    10.84    18.32    11.88    23.40    60.11    33.24P    0.23R    0.02  
Bournemouth      5    9   -6       4.32    91.88    -2.15    50.03    11.09   -31.42     0.09     0.23     2.06     0.49P   33.88R    9.92  
Watford          5    8   +5       0.11    52.04     3.30    76.86    11.26    24.83    12.94    24.85    60.47    34.50P    0.26R    0.02  
Wigan            5    8   +4      -1.59    29.92    -0.29    77.05    11.80    24.14    14.53    26.57    60.37    37.02P    0.39R    0.03  
Reading          5    8   +1      -0.17    48.13    -1.01    75.49    11.68    18.39    10.99    21.40    54.82    30.92P    0.47R    0.03  
Leeds_United     5    8   +1       1.63    71.42     1.66    63.32    10.91    -0.39     1.05     2.82    16.37     5.49P    4.50R    0.61  
Blackburn        5    7   +3      -0.93    38.55     1.38    66.22    10.98     7.52     2.05     5.03    23.91     9.46P    2.57R    0.31  
Huddersfield     5    7   +3       0.52    57.90     3.46    57.06    10.63    -6.57     0.23     0.73     6.15     1.69P   11.89R    1.94  
Brighton         5    7   +1      -0.94    38.19    -0.59    70.62    10.73    12.24     4.18     9.58    37.20    17.23P    0.82R    0.08  
Derby            5    7   +0       0.19    53.44     0.01    62.19    10.85    -1.42     0.77     2.20    13.94     4.55P    5.36R    0.73  
Middlesbrough    5    6   +0      -0.28    47.24     0.91    61.25    10.82    -1.25     0.64     1.84    12.04     3.76P    6.34R    0.99  
Ipswich          5    4   +0      -1.83    28.01     1.50    56.28    10.84    -5.72     0.23     0.67     5.64     1.64P   14.07R    2.75  
Charlton         4    4   -1      -1.94    25.55    -1.69    61.14    10.94    -1.55     0.63     1.92    12.32     4.16P    6.55R    1.08  
Doncaster        4    4   -1      -0.63    43.26     0.43    49.96    11.38   -18.58     0.09     0.26     2.31     0.62P   32.85R    9.97  
Birmingham       5    4   -2      -3.18    15.39    -2.47    61.97    10.85     0.81     0.70     2.12    13.52     4.75P    5.60R    0.83  
Barnsley         5    4   -7      -1.13    37.81    -4.11    47.84    10.42   -26.98     0.01     0.07     0.91     0.22P   39.95R   12.16  
Sheff_Wed        5    3   -2      -2.85    16.57    -0.57    53.47    10.68   -10.60     0.09     0.33     3.28     0.87P   20.14R    4.60  
Yeovil           5    3   -6      -1.37    33.16    -2.06    38.30    10.30   -40.63     0.01     0.01     0.12     0.02P   74.60R   45.03  
Millwall         5    2   -5      -4.46     5.89    -4.55    49.86    10.40   -16.72     0.03     0.12     1.39     0.40P   31.00R    7.62  
Bolton           5    2   -7      -4.11     8.46    -5.89    61.94    11.14    -1.42     0.81     2.31    13.93     5.24P    6.38R    1.06  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 August 2013, Brentford 0 0 Carlisle; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient    5   15  +11       6.31    98.18     8.22    76.76    11.18    19.18     5.34    15.31    59.55    24.53P    0.32R    0.02  
Wolverhampton    5   13   +8       3.19    86.25     3.27    91.87    11.52    44.08    40.49    65.45    93.30    74.85P    0.01R    0.00  
Peterborough     5   12   +7       2.47    76.59     2.60    90.60    11.93    45.19    36.66    61.29    91.11    70.44P    0.02R    0.00  
Brentford        5    9   +3       0.48    54.91     0.48    71.45    10.95    12.26     1.96     6.62    40.59    14.69P    1.22R    0.06  
Rotherham        5    9   +2       3.20    84.01     3.79    53.81    11.57   -18.38     0.07     0.37     4.68     0.98P   26.95R    5.70  
MK_Dons          5    9   +2       0.82    59.29    -0.05    77.17    11.01    20.11     5.31    15.51    61.68    28.14P    0.32R    0.01  
Bradford         5    8   +5       2.18    77.14     6.72    52.24    11.23   -14.60     0.04     0.23     3.43     0.69P   30.59R    6.23  
Colchester       5    8   +1       1.33    67.73     1.25    55.92    10.90   -12.42     0.07     0.31     5.50     1.10P   19.18R    3.00  
Preston          5    7   +3       0.45    56.77     3.49    68.25    11.14    10.45     0.91     3.81    30.76     9.71P    2.63R    0.21  
Swindon          5    7   +3      -1.94    25.86    -0.12    77.26    10.99    24.27     5.09    15.61    62.53    30.15P    0.30R    0.01  
Crawley_Town     5    7   +1       1.22    67.26     3.12    62.43    11.30    -0.90     0.31     1.31    15.87     3.85P    7.86R    0.95  
Walsall          5    7   -1       0.13    52.56    -1.03    62.99    11.10    -1.95     0.36     1.47    16.02     4.22P    6.99R    0.73  
Oldham           5    6   +0      -0.13    48.90     1.31    54.97    10.78   -11.46     0.04     0.22     4.53     0.90P   21.27R    3.57  
Shrewsbury       5    6   -1       0.34    55.66     0.81    57.41    10.74    -8.70     0.08     0.37     6.55     1.39P   15.18R    2.34  
Stevenage        5    4   -2      -2.28    23.54    -1.16    54.75    10.83   -10.84     0.05     0.24     4.23     0.93P   21.81R    3.81  
Port_Vale        5    4   -4      -1.58    32.29    -1.83    48.72    11.58   -24.47     0.02     0.10     2.12     0.43P   43.51R   12.96  
Sheff_Utd        5    4   -4      -3.86    10.72    -5.49    68.02    11.17     7.80     1.08     3.87    29.80    10.67P    2.67R    0.21  
Tranmere         5    4   -7      -2.46    22.22    -6.27    57.09    10.93   -12.23     0.06     0.30     6.52     1.43P   16.74R    2.49  
Crewe            5    4   -7      -0.92    40.46    -3.70    47.85    10.81   -28.90     0.00     0.03     1.16     0.18P   46.41R   13.39  
Bristol_City     5    3   -2      -4.20     8.42    -2.41    67.76    12.56    11.25     1.54     5.28    31.93    12.02P    4.71R    0.64  
Gillingham       5    3   -5      -1.77    27.69    -1.62    48.94    11.34   -21.45     0.02     0.09     1.89     0.40P   42.16R   11.60  
Carlisle         5    2  -12      -2.85    17.21    -8.50    42.26    10.57   -41.33     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.04P   66.92R   28.73  
Notts_County     5    1   -5      -5.78     2.27    -4.79    58.13    11.18    -4.05     0.08     0.49     8.29     2.21P   14.55R    2.28  
Coventry         5   -2   +4     -10.17     0.00     1.90    62.66    11.53    17.08     0.42     1.71    17.66     6.03P    7.66R    1.06  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 August 2013, AFC_Wimbledon 2 0 Fleetwood_Town; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield          5   13   +7       5.53    96.87     6.12    84.86    10.61    30.77    38.94    69.89    90.71    76.12P    0.02R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd            5   11   +6       3.75    89.54     5.47    73.08    10.68    14.88     7.52    26.90    59.20    34.71P    0.45R    0.13  
Burton_Albion         5   11   +3       4.28    91.74     3.24    68.86    10.89     4.91     3.83    16.02    43.06    21.61P    1.37R    0.44  
AFC_Wimbledon         5   10   +2       4.01    90.99     3.37    58.48    10.52   -11.00     0.44     2.68    12.58     4.30P    8.70R    3.71  
Exeter                5   10   +2       1.71    71.12    -0.16    68.84    10.76     5.94     3.71    15.81    42.79    22.28P    1.11R    0.36  
Fleetwood_Town        5    9   +2       2.21    76.66     1.98    63.85    10.58    -0.18     1.45     7.16    25.85    11.08P    3.03R    1.11  
Southend              5    9   +2       1.80    72.51     1.41    73.74    10.74    14.94     8.43    29.22    60.95    37.77P    0.32R    0.09  
Newport_County        5    8   +2       2.80    84.03     4.82    49.40    10.69   -22.62     0.06     0.53     3.07     0.93P   31.87R   17.52  
Mansfield             5    8   +2       2.08    76.36     3.47    57.48    11.13    -8.68     0.48     2.78    12.39     4.58P   11.39R    5.31  
Bury                  5    7   +3      -1.08    36.66     1.08    73.18    11.79    18.56     9.51    29.74    59.22    38.43P    0.71R    0.24  
Bristol_Rovers        5    7   +0      -0.11    49.33    -0.32    59.45    10.68    -6.12     0.54     3.54    15.19     6.00P    7.30R    3.08  
Wycombe               5    7   +0      -0.11    49.13    -0.38    61.95    10.54    -1.73     0.84     5.04    20.66     8.41P    4.60R    1.80  
Morecambe             5    7   -1       0.41    56.46    -0.48    61.07    10.56    -4.06     0.77     4.44    18.30     7.30P    5.23R    2.08  
Scunthorpe            5    6   +1      -3.17    14.23    -2.59    70.08    11.42    12.86     5.90    20.66    48.81    29.27P    1.08R    0.37  
Plymouth              5    6   -1       0.06    51.87     0.19    58.62    10.23    -5.57     0.39     2.43    12.33     4.53P    7.54R    3.11  
Torquay               5    6   -1      -1.13    35.47    -1.46    60.97    10.38    -2.76     0.66     4.10    17.83     7.12P    4.99R    1.97  
Rochdale              5    5   +1      -1.48    32.71     1.61    66.63    10.93     9.15     2.58    12.10    36.42    18.20P    1.91R    0.69  
Portsmouth            5    5   -2      -3.88    10.96    -5.08    74.99    11.55    19.89    11.99    35.07    65.16    45.25P    0.39R    0.13  
Dag_&_Red             5    5   -3      -1.37    33.36    -2.23    54.61    10.57   -13.09     0.17     1.26     6.97     2.41P   15.49R    7.29  
York                  5    4   -3      -1.57    31.01    -1.24    51.34    10.16   -15.78     0.07     0.49     3.58     1.04P   23.23R   11.68  
Cheltenham            5    4   -6      -2.28    22.67    -5.05    60.00    10.68    -6.18     0.54     3.61    15.91     6.43P    6.74R    2.81  
Northampton           5    3   -3      -3.81     9.22    -2.99    57.12    10.61    -6.40     0.39     2.12    10.71     3.98P   10.40R    4.59  
Hartlepool            5    2   -5      -4.70     5.17    -4.93    60.24    10.93    -1.29     0.77     4.33    17.34     8.00P    6.61R    2.79  
Accrington_Stanley    5    1   -8      -4.57     5.11    -5.86    45.48    10.07   -26.42     0.01     0.09     0.98     0.25P   45.55R   28.70  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 August 2013, Barnet 3 2 Hyde_United; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd     6   14   +9       4.61    92.86     7.08    76.18    10.58    20.46     8.51    49.28    17.16P    0.16R    0.02  
Barnet            6   14   +8       1.78    70.35     1.53    87.60    10.94    37.65    42.87    84.27    56.23P    0.01R    0.00  
Nuneaton          6   14   +5       7.12    98.52     6.96    68.69    10.46     5.17     1.94    22.03     5.28P    0.99R    0.11  
Lincoln_City      6   13   +4       5.03    92.90     4.33    68.96    10.49     6.05     2.27    23.22     6.02P    0.95R    0.11  
Southport         6   12   +1       4.29    89.30     1.82    63.14    10.55    -5.71     0.74    10.38     2.17P    3.71R    0.55  
Forest_Green      6   11  +10       0.54    56.16     6.46    76.14    10.45    26.01     8.71    49.39    18.88P    0.16R    0.01  
Hereford          6   11   +3       0.23    52.14    -0.86    71.95    10.43    12.87     3.99    33.24    10.67P    0.42R    0.04  
Grimsby           6   10   +2      -0.38    44.84    -1.24    76.91    10.27    20.61     8.93    51.92    20.77P    0.10R    0.02  
Braintree_Town    6   10   +1       2.78    80.28     2.52    62.79    10.52    -2.35     0.58     9.93     2.06P    3.89R    0.59  
Halifax           6   10   -2       3.49    85.06     0.96    51.85    11.45   -25.14     0.14     2.27     0.42P   26.72R    8.20  
Luton             6    9   +3      -0.43    44.43     1.18    75.17    10.35    20.49     6.95    45.47    17.31P    0.13R    0.01  
Kidderminster     6    9   +0      -1.60    30.82    -3.73    76.89    10.47    20.68     9.41    51.59    21.29P    0.12R    0.01  
Alfreton_Town     6    9   -1       2.10    74.21     1.29    59.64    10.69    -8.86     0.31     6.05     1.17P    7.57R    1.36  
Welling           6    8   +1       1.36    67.56     3.62    55.23    11.74   -11.61     0.25     4.14     0.91P   17.46R    4.72  
Salisbury         6    7   -1       0.21    54.21     1.21    50.00    11.23   -19.50     0.07     1.44     0.29P   30.92R    9.77  
Dartford          6    6   -5      -1.84    29.59    -4.41    54.60    10.22   -14.54     0.06     2.08     0.40P   15.47R    3.35  
Wrexham           6    5   -4      -6.24     2.89    -8.73    68.70    10.43     9.69     2.05    23.16     7.87P    0.98R    0.08  
Tamworth          6    5   -5      -1.11    38.73    -1.88    49.95     9.96   -19.69     0.02     0.64     0.10P   28.31R    7.73  
Gateshead         6    4   -4      -2.93    19.23    -1.96    56.65    10.35    -7.40     0.12     3.19     0.68P   11.27R    2.18  
Woking            6    4   -4      -3.47    14.86    -2.59    49.83    10.45   -19.80     0.02     0.86     0.16P   30.00R    8.76  
Macclesfield      6    3   -3      -5.35     4.47    -3.28    56.51    10.34    -4.83     0.11     3.03     0.63P   11.32R    2.32  
Chester           6    3   -8      -1.81    27.95    -2.00    41.88    10.91   -33.91     0.00     0.18     0.04P   59.88R   30.98  
Hyde_United       6    2  -11      -3.12    15.02    -5.37    45.20    10.33   -31.42     0.00     0.24     0.03P   47.99R   18.89  
Aldershot         6   -3   +1     -13.81     0.00    -2.91    67.70    10.68    25.09     1.93    21.98     9.46P    1.46R    0.18  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10