Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 5 September 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 1 September 2013, Arsenal 1 0 Tottenham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool         3    9   +3       4.02    95.29     1.78    69.96     9.25    22.13    11.51    26.61    43.33    59.94    85.20     0.02R    0.00  
Chelsea           3    7   +3       1.37    77.24     0.64    72.27     9.23    29.07    17.30    36.49    54.56    70.34    90.17     0.02R    0.00  
Man_City          3    6   +5      -0.80    30.93     0.80    73.11     9.13    34.21    21.03    41.39    59.02    73.80    92.12     0.00R    0.00  
Arsenal           3    6   +1       0.41    53.58    -1.27    69.04     9.34    24.17    10.95    24.62    40.07    56.63    83.33     0.03R    0.00  
Stoke             3    6   +1       2.28    84.12     1.42    47.34     8.72    -7.08     0.03     0.14     0.51     1.43     7.11     8.72R    1.47  
Tottenham         3    6   +1       1.02    64.78    -0.26    63.75     9.36    15.54     3.81    10.26    20.14    32.98    65.14     0.18R    0.01  
Man_Utd           3    4   +2      -1.12    33.06     0.50    76.42     8.96    41.34    34.66    57.26    73.39    84.52    96.18     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham          3    4   +1      -0.45    44.19     0.48    45.91     8.97    -7.66     0.02     0.14     0.46     1.15     5.91    12.37R    2.41  
Norwich           3    4   +0      -0.04    51.47     0.02    42.82     8.91   -14.35     0.00     0.04     0.18     0.54     2.94    21.18R    5.21  
Southampton       3    4   +0       0.07    54.06     0.22    45.09     9.03   -10.69     0.02     0.11     0.37     0.97     4.89    14.42R    3.23  
Cardiff           3    4   -1       1.22    73.80     0.86    41.37     9.31   -17.21     0.01     0.05     0.16     0.49     2.61    27.64R    8.15  
Newcastle         3    4   -3       0.56    63.06    -1.79    44.97     9.11   -13.95     0.03     0.13     0.35     1.00     4.77    15.81R    3.54  
Aston_Villa       3    3   +0       0.79    65.84     3.10    46.20     9.19    -7.41     0.03     0.15     0.50     1.27     6.46    12.55R    2.68  
Crystal_Palace    3    3   +0       0.17    54.57     1.79    32.45     8.71   -30.59     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.25    65.80R   35.03  
Everton           3    3   +0      -2.07    18.47    -1.35    56.06     9.11     7.68     0.49     2.08     5.26    10.57    31.55     1.26R    0.15  
Swansea           3    3   -2       0.21    54.84    -0.11    47.28     9.05    -6.98     0.03     0.20     0.62     1.62     7.53     9.75R    1.79  
Fulham            3    3   -2      -0.56    40.98    -1.24    47.27     9.07    -7.57     0.04     0.20     0.63     1.58     7.63     9.91R    1.93  
Hull              3    3   -3       0.95    69.19     0.36    34.84     8.59   -25.34     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.39    55.31R   23.30  
Sunderland        3    1   -3      -3.08     9.88    -3.03    41.01     8.75   -14.29     0.01     0.02     0.10     0.27     1.84    26.64R    6.71  
West_Brom         3    1   -3      -3.02    10.27    -2.92    43.84     9.12   -11.00     0.02     0.10     0.32     0.81     4.00    18.39R    4.39  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 August 2013, Barnsley 2 1 Huddersfield; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Blackpool        5   13   +5       5.03    95.39     3.31    75.99    10.98    15.28    10.29    20.73    55.94    28.61P    0.23R    0.02  
QPR              5   13   +4       4.72    94.39     1.95    79.90    11.17    19.91    18.49    32.68    69.26    42.66P    0.13R    0.01  
Burnley          5   10   +4       2.39    78.77     2.78    70.14    10.83    10.01     3.84     9.17    35.87    15.39P    0.92R    0.08  
Nott'm_Forest    5   10   +4       3.35    86.58     4.34    71.49    10.70    12.28     4.61    10.59    39.90    17.25P    0.66R    0.06  
Leicester        5   10   +2       2.01    74.04     0.35    76.97    10.89    18.35    12.09    23.48    60.08    33.65P    0.19R    0.02  
Bournemouth      5    9   -6       4.36    92.24    -2.11    49.99    11.04   -31.63     0.05     0.20     1.99     0.46P   33.74R   10.05  
Watford          5    8   +5       0.12    52.23     3.29    76.97    11.22    25.05    12.82    24.80    60.81    34.40P    0.29R    0.02  
Wigan            5    8   +4      -1.63    29.64    -0.37    77.52    11.86    24.84    15.76    28.06    62.03    38.22P    0.33R    0.02  
Reading          5    8   +1      -0.14    48.55    -0.95    75.21    11.86    17.96    10.93    21.04    53.89    30.58P    0.57R    0.07  
Leeds_United     5    8   +1       1.62    71.19     1.63    63.34    10.83    -0.29     0.95     2.75    16.02     5.41P    4.33R    0.60  
Blackburn        5    7   +3      -0.92    38.67     1.37    66.16    10.99     7.46     1.93     4.95    23.72     9.31P    2.56R    0.31  
Huddersfield     5    7   +3       0.50    57.64     3.42    57.06    10.72    -6.52     0.26     0.80     6.27     1.78P   12.16R    2.06  
Brighton         5    7   +1      -0.95    37.90    -0.58    70.43    10.66    11.92     3.95     9.23    36.14    16.40P    0.88R    0.07  
Derby            5    7   +0       0.21    53.53     0.03    61.97    10.78    -1.78     0.70     2.04    13.23     4.38P    5.61R    0.81  
Middlesbrough    5    6   +0      -0.29    46.99     0.91    61.43    10.77    -0.98     0.63     1.83    12.20     3.88P    6.15R    0.87  
Ipswich          5    4   +0      -1.82    28.02     1.51    56.25    10.78    -5.76     0.19     0.63     5.47     1.58P   13.68R    2.73  
Charlton         4    4   -1      -1.93    25.67    -1.68    60.92    11.03    -1.86     0.62     1.90    11.87     4.06P    6.96R    1.14  
Doncaster        4    4   -1      -0.58    44.23     0.49    49.71    11.27   -18.90     0.06     0.21     2.24     0.58P   33.52R   10.13  
Birmingham       5    4   -2      -3.19    15.21    -2.50    62.02    10.85     0.89     0.80     2.05    13.74     4.88P    5.58R    0.76  
Barnsley         5    4   -7      -1.10    37.97    -4.08    47.93    10.44   -26.94     0.01     0.07     0.90     0.22P   39.15R   11.98  
Sheff_Wed        5    3   -2      -2.85    16.77    -0.60    53.40    10.69   -10.69     0.11     0.33     3.15     0.87P   20.46R    4.65  
Yeovil           5    3   -6      -1.36    33.24    -2.05    38.32    10.26   -40.41     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P   74.53R   44.61  
Millwall         5    2   -5      -4.47     5.92    -4.57    49.76    10.35   -16.87     0.03     0.11     1.28     0.32P   31.23R    7.86  
Bolton           5    2   -7      -4.11     8.23    -5.89    61.99    11.14    -1.33     0.87     2.35    13.90     5.08P    6.14R    1.05  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 August 2013, Brentford 0 0 Carlisle; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient    5   15  +11       6.39    98.37     8.32    76.36    11.11    18.53     4.85    14.22    58.61    23.36P    0.34R    0.01  
Wolverhampton    5   13   +8       3.16    86.13     3.21    92.03    11.40    44.34    40.57    66.12    93.63    75.41P    0.01R    0.00  
Peterborough     5   12   +7       2.42    75.95     2.51    90.96    11.95    45.82    37.64    62.54    91.58    71.33P    0.02R    0.00  
Brentford        5    9   +3       0.52    55.33     0.54    71.15    10.94    11.69     1.74     6.28    39.86    14.30P    1.27R    0.06  
Rotherham        5    9   +2       3.15    83.63     3.70    54.10    11.64   -17.84     0.06     0.31     5.16     1.07P   26.48R    5.71  
MK_Dons          5    9   +2       0.81    59.28    -0.06    77.36    10.99    20.28     5.31    15.85    62.51    28.46P    0.27R    0.01  
Bradford         5    8   +5       2.10    76.27     6.59    52.70    11.21   -13.77     0.04     0.23     3.82     0.78P   29.11R    5.95  
Colchester       5    8   +1       1.26    67.09     1.15    56.25    10.76   -11.93     0.05     0.30     5.58     1.23P   18.25R    2.61  
Preston          5    7   +3       0.48    57.43     3.54    68.13    11.16    10.22     0.99     3.87    30.09     9.67P    2.75R    0.22  
Swindon          5    7   +3      -1.92    26.23    -0.09    77.07    10.98    24.00     5.02    15.33    62.45    29.68P    0.34R    0.02  
Crawley_Town     5    7   +1       1.28    68.09     3.21    62.21    11.35    -1.29     0.29     1.24    15.41     3.70P    8.38R    1.04  
Walsall          5    7   -1       0.08    51.76    -1.10    62.90    11.15    -2.08     0.32     1.52    16.27     4.34P    7.04R    0.73  
Oldham           5    6   +0      -0.15    48.73     1.30    54.97    10.83   -11.48     0.04     0.26     4.50     0.95P   21.30R    3.77  
Shrewsbury       5    6   -1       0.34    55.43     0.81    57.36    10.78    -8.89     0.07     0.35     6.60     1.37P   15.91R    2.32  
Stevenage        5    4   -2      -2.24    23.68    -1.10    54.59    10.88   -11.06     0.04     0.24     4.34     0.99P   22.74R    3.91  
Port_Vale        5    4   -4      -1.57    32.38    -1.82    48.91    11.58   -24.15     0.01     0.10     2.16     0.46P   43.04R   12.75  
Sheff_Utd        5    4   -4      -3.82    10.73    -5.46    67.93    11.09     7.50     0.88     3.57    29.83    10.47P    2.95R    0.29  
Tranmere         5    4   -7      -2.39    22.78    -6.18    56.64    10.93   -12.88     0.06     0.33     6.23     1.45P   17.78R    2.80  
Crewe            5    4   -7      -0.96    39.90    -3.75    47.88    10.79   -28.81     0.01     0.04     1.20     0.17P   46.56R   13.33  
Bristol_City     5    3   -2      -4.13     8.86    -2.30    67.46    12.48    10.73     1.47     4.91    31.08    11.81P    4.77R    0.61  
Gillingham       5    3   -5      -1.80    27.34    -1.64    49.15    11.33   -21.10     0.01     0.07     1.95     0.42P   41.37R   11.67  
Carlisle         5    2  -12      -2.85    17.77    -8.50    42.36    10.69   -41.17     0.00     0.01     0.37     0.05P   67.00R   29.03  
Notts_County     5    1   -5      -5.75     2.33    -4.75    58.02    11.10    -4.14     0.10     0.47     8.25     2.18P   14.55R    2.16  
Coventry         5   -2   +4     -10.21     0.00     1.87    62.88    11.64    17.47     0.45     1.85    18.52     6.37P    7.78R    1.00  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 August 2013, AFC_Wimbledon 2 0 Fleetwood_Town; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield          5   13   +7       5.56    97.02     6.16    84.84    10.47    30.59    37.98    69.64    90.93    75.95P    0.01R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd            5   11   +6       3.75    89.44     5.47    73.26    10.81    15.22     7.92    27.31    59.60    34.99P    0.41R    0.11  
Burton_Albion         5   11   +3       4.31    91.70     3.27    68.73    10.86     4.75     3.85    15.62    42.46    21.07P    1.16R    0.38  
AFC_Wimbledon         5   10   +2       3.99    90.64     3.35    58.55    10.49   -10.81     0.43     2.64    12.56     4.29P    8.49R    3.57  
Exeter                5   10   +2       1.70    71.24    -0.17    68.72    10.71     5.81     3.84    15.39    42.20    21.86P    1.06R    0.33  
Fleetwood_Town        5    9   +2       2.25    76.65     2.05    63.76    10.59    -0.31     1.41     7.03    25.33    10.95P    3.07R    1.19  
Southend              5    9   +2       1.77    72.31     1.38    74.04    10.71    15.32     8.69    29.42    62.14    38.44P    0.28R    0.07  
Newport_County        5    8   +2       2.80    83.96     4.81    49.20    10.75   -22.94     0.05     0.50     3.10     0.87P   32.33R   18.18  
Mansfield             5    8   +2       2.09    76.75     3.50    57.45    11.05    -8.79     0.49     2.73    11.88     4.50P   11.12R    5.14  
Bury                  5    7   +3      -1.14    35.91     0.98    73.55    11.68    19.10     9.92    30.42    60.37    39.14P    0.58R    0.17  
Bristol_Rovers        5    7   +0      -0.09    49.41    -0.29    59.26    10.50    -6.38     0.51     2.96    14.10     5.29P    7.15R    2.97  
Wycombe               5    7   +0      -0.14    48.72    -0.41    62.18    10.61    -1.36     1.01     5.42    21.01     8.83P    4.33R    1.64  
Morecambe             5    7   -1       0.48    57.38    -0.39    60.66    10.56    -4.65     0.63     3.94    17.32     6.67P    5.74R    2.32  
Scunthorpe            5    6   +1      -3.19    14.22    -2.63    70.25    11.38    13.12     5.64    21.09    49.11    29.69P    1.04R    0.38  
Plymouth              5    6   -1       0.07    52.03     0.18    58.66    10.24    -5.52     0.35     2.40    12.36     4.41P    7.26R    2.91  
Torquay               5    6   -1      -1.16    35.29    -1.50    61.12    10.54    -2.47     0.77     4.39    18.42     7.44P    5.09R    1.96  
Rochdale              5    5   +1      -1.49    33.06     1.61    66.56    11.00     9.09     2.56    12.06    36.04    18.11P    1.99R    0.82  
Portsmouth            5    5   -2      -3.88    10.97    -5.08    75.03    11.58    19.90    11.99    35.17    65.26    45.23P    0.46R    0.13  
Dag_&_Red             5    5   -3      -1.40    33.15    -2.25    54.63    10.48   -13.12     0.16     1.18     6.90     2.28P   15.14R    7.06  
York                  5    4   -3      -1.56    31.21    -1.22    51.13    10.10   -16.09     0.06     0.42     3.22     0.95P   23.51R   11.90  
Cheltenham            5    4   -6      -2.25    23.02    -5.01    59.91    10.59    -6.29     0.58     3.42    15.82     6.22P    6.51R    2.49  
Northampton           5    3   -3      -3.79     9.27    -2.97    56.94    10.69    -6.64     0.30     2.16    10.53     4.03P   10.80R    4.71  
Hartlepool            5    2   -5      -4.76     4.75    -5.00    60.57    11.03    -0.83     0.83     4.60    18.35     8.54P    6.34R    2.63  
Accrington_Stanley    5    1   -8      -4.57     5.16    -5.84    45.32    10.09   -26.71     0.01     0.10     0.99     0.26P   46.13R   28.95  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 August 2013, Barnet 3 2 Hyde_United; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd     6   14   +9       4.59    92.86     7.07    76.27    10.59    20.63     8.74    49.42    17.52P    0.13R    0.02  
Barnet            6   14   +8       1.80    70.75     1.58    87.59    10.95    37.59    42.82    84.32    56.28P    0.00R    0.00  
Nuneaton          6   14   +5       7.08    98.61     6.91    68.78    10.30     5.30     1.92    22.26     5.25P    0.98R    0.10  
Lincoln_City      6   13   +4       5.02    93.13     4.33    68.99    10.44     6.08     2.24    23.20     5.87P    0.93R    0.11  
Southport         6   12   +1       4.34    89.32     1.91    62.86    10.57    -6.15     0.64    10.04     2.00P    4.01R    0.60  
Forest_Green      6   11  +10       0.50    55.79     6.41    76.31    10.36    26.26     8.70    50.39    19.69P    0.11R    0.00  
Hereford          6   11   +3       0.22    52.33    -0.84    71.85    10.47    12.70     3.98    33.20    10.60P    0.50R    0.04  
Grimsby           6   10   +2      -0.32    45.64    -1.16    76.66    10.29    20.30     8.80    51.26    20.65P    0.10R    0.01  
Braintree_Town    6   10   +1       2.75    80.10     2.46    62.93    10.48    -2.15     0.62    10.17     2.13P    3.84R    0.58  
Halifax           6   10   -2       3.43    84.75     0.85    52.26    11.39   -24.49     0.12     2.29     0.42P   25.45R    7.54  
Luton             6    9   +3      -0.41    44.91     1.19    75.10    10.34    20.36     6.91    45.43    17.17P    0.17R    0.02  
Kidderminster     6    9   +0      -1.60    31.04    -3.73    76.87    10.51    20.62     9.57    51.95    21.17P    0.12R    0.01  
Alfreton_Town     6    9   -1       2.12    74.28     1.33    59.51    10.66    -9.02     0.34     6.04     1.22P    7.65R    1.40  
Welling           6    8   +1       1.26    66.44     3.44    55.67    11.85   -10.79     0.37     4.51     1.13P   17.07R    4.52  
Salisbury         6    7   -1       0.22    54.38     1.25    49.98    11.18   -19.57     0.08     1.34     0.27P   31.05R    9.85  
Dartford          6    6   -5      -1.84    29.40    -4.40    54.66    10.25   -14.50     0.08     2.02     0.37P   15.47R    3.37  
Wrexham           6    5   -4      -6.16     2.97    -8.59    68.41    10.36     9.24     1.98    22.17     7.48P    1.00R    0.10  
Tamworth          6    5   -5      -1.05    39.35    -1.77    49.56     9.93   -20.32     0.01     0.58     0.08P   29.73R    8.25  
Gateshead         6    4   -4      -2.98    18.77    -2.02    56.57    10.55    -7.53     0.13     3.53     0.76P   11.97R    2.57  
Woking            6    4   -4      -3.43    15.21    -2.56    50.00    10.45   -19.52     0.03     0.89     0.15P   29.31R    8.33  
Macclesfield      6    3   -3      -5.36     4.41    -3.28    56.89    10.40    -4.32     0.10     3.43     0.71P   10.93R    2.22  
Chester           6    3   -8      -1.82    27.96    -2.01    42.01    11.05   -33.76     0.00     0.24     0.04P   59.54R   30.91  
Hyde_United       6    2  -11      -3.17    14.66    -5.47    45.15    10.28   -31.48     0.00     0.24     0.03P   48.20R   19.20  
Aldershot         6   -3   +1     -13.79     0.00    -2.88    67.31    10.65    24.50     1.79    21.07     9.01P    1.71R    0.26  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10