Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 4 September 2013 at 22:00:02 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 1 September 2013, Arsenal 1 0 Tottenham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool         3    9   +3       4.01    95.27     1.76    70.12     9.22    22.40    11.77    26.79    43.62    60.01    85.71     0.02R    0.00  
Chelsea           3    7   +3       1.37    77.21     0.63    72.44     9.20    29.28    17.89    36.69    54.92    70.53    90.49     0.01R    0.00  
Man_City          3    6   +5      -0.82    30.71     0.77    73.28     9.10    34.45    21.27    41.74    59.40    74.36    92.17     0.00R    0.00  
Arsenal           3    6   +1       0.40    53.38    -1.28    69.03     9.39    24.16    10.74    24.22    39.79    56.31    83.05     0.04R    0.00  
Stoke             3    6   +1       2.27    83.97     1.39    47.33     8.60    -7.06     0.01     0.13     0.45     1.28     6.72     8.37R    1.30  
Tottenham         3    6   +1       1.00    64.56    -0.27    63.78     9.44    15.58     3.88    10.64    20.25    33.22    65.13     0.21R    0.02  
Man_Utd           3    4   +2      -1.11    33.38     0.52    76.39     8.85    41.29    33.61    56.60    72.81    84.30    96.22     0.00R    0.00  
West_Ham          3    4   +1      -0.43    44.44     0.51    45.84     8.92    -7.76     0.01     0.10     0.39     1.10     5.69    12.36R    2.37  
Norwich           3    4   +0      -0.05    51.51     0.01    42.92     8.98   -14.24     0.01     0.07     0.23     0.58     3.24    20.89R    5.16  
Southampton       3    4   +0       0.06    53.85     0.20    45.22     9.03   -10.47     0.03     0.13     0.39     1.02     5.18    14.20R    2.90  
Cardiff           3    4   -1       1.22    73.72     0.86    41.47     9.34   -16.93     0.03     0.07     0.19     0.47     2.58    27.21R    7.79  
Newcastle         3    4   -3       0.55    62.54    -1.81    44.97     9.08   -13.95     0.01     0.08     0.30     0.89     4.71    15.58R    3.50  
Aston_Villa       3    3   +0       0.80    66.10     3.10    46.00     9.18    -7.69     0.02     0.17     0.46     1.20     6.16    12.93R    2.65  
Crystal_Palace    3    3   +0       0.20    54.89     1.83    32.04     8.70   -31.43     0.00     0.01     0.01     0.04     0.24    67.36R   36.50  
Everton           3    3   +0      -2.05    18.65    -1.33    56.12     9.15     7.72     0.61     2.07     5.23    10.50    31.50     1.32R    0.17  
Swansea           3    3   -2       0.20    54.83    -0.12    47.33     9.02    -6.99     0.04     0.19     0.57     1.50     7.44     9.58R    1.77  
Fulham            3    3   -2      -0.55    40.92    -1.24    47.27     9.14    -7.58     0.03     0.21     0.62     1.61     7.60     9.92R    1.87  
Hull              3    3   -3       0.96    69.44     0.41    34.79     8.62   -25.53     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.38    55.38R   23.08  
Sunderland        3    1   -3      -3.09     9.62    -3.04    40.87     8.77   -14.53     0.01     0.02     0.09     0.27     1.83    26.85R    6.82  
West_Brom         3    1   -3      -3.02    10.15    -2.92    44.00     9.12   -10.74     0.02     0.08     0.28     0.77     3.96    17.79R    4.10  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 August 2013, Barnsley 2 1 Huddersfield; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Blackpool        5   13   +5       5.06    95.39     3.37    75.54    10.93    14.65     9.53    19.42    54.37    27.45P    0.25R    0.02  
QPR              5   13   +4       4.70    94.19     1.91    80.09    11.32    20.21    19.37    33.48    69.45    43.31P    0.10R    0.01  
Burnley          5   10   +4       2.36    78.19     2.72    70.35    10.92    10.31     4.15     9.52    36.12    15.53P    1.03R    0.12  
Nott'm_Forest    5   10   +4       3.33    86.44     4.33    71.35    10.73    12.03     4.54    10.54    39.52    17.15P    0.70R    0.07  
Leicester        5   10   +2       2.03    74.19     0.34    76.97    10.99    18.32    11.82    23.52    59.96    33.35P    0.20R    0.02  
Bournemouth      5    9   -6       4.34    92.11    -2.15    50.13    11.06   -31.25     0.05     0.22     2.01     0.46P   33.25R    9.50  
Watford          5    8   +5       0.11    52.24     3.28    76.92    11.39    25.00    13.23    24.91    60.66    34.77P    0.28R    0.03  
Wigan            5    8   +4      -1.59    29.95    -0.32    77.41    11.81    24.73    15.11    27.17    61.64    37.53P    0.32R    0.03  
Reading          5    8   +1      -0.15    48.50    -0.97    75.43    11.78    18.27    11.05    21.29    54.42    30.93P    0.58R    0.05  
Leeds_United     5    8   +1       1.67    71.92     1.72    63.03    10.98    -0.82     0.93     2.72    15.65     5.19P    4.83R    0.67  
Blackburn        5    7   +3      -0.90    39.13     1.39    66.32    11.09     7.65     1.95     5.16    24.39     9.58P    2.58R    0.35  
Huddersfield     5    7   +3       0.50    57.92     3.44    57.07    10.65    -6.56     0.25     0.78     6.07     1.74P   11.86R    2.11  
Brighton         5    7   +1      -0.95    37.88    -0.60    70.60    10.71    12.25     4.01     9.65    37.07    17.00P    0.86R    0.08  
Derby            5    7   +0       0.22    53.70     0.03    61.95    10.82    -1.80     0.69     1.96    13.08     4.21P    5.61R    0.86  
Middlesbrough    5    6   +0      -0.27    47.22     0.92    61.20    10.77    -1.34     0.63     1.74    11.88     3.78P    6.27R    0.92  
Ipswich          5    4   +0      -1.84    27.96     1.49    56.36    10.71    -5.62     0.18     0.62     5.44     1.51P   13.47R    2.57  
Charlton         4    4   -1      -1.96    25.31    -1.71    61.14    11.15    -1.54     0.68     2.03    12.64     4.45P    7.12R    1.16  
Doncaster        4    4   -1      -0.61    43.71     0.48    49.92    11.25   -18.76     0.10     0.23     2.08     0.57P   32.77R    9.73  
Birmingham       5    4   -2      -3.18    15.12    -2.47    61.88    10.96     0.63     0.69     2.14    13.58     4.77P    5.92R    0.85  
Barnsley         5    4   -7      -1.11    37.91    -4.10    47.74    10.46   -27.25     0.02     0.06     0.92     0.20P   40.29R   12.35  
Sheff_Wed        5    3   -2      -2.86    16.66    -0.58    53.24    10.64   -10.91     0.09     0.30     3.02     0.82P   20.82R    4.69  
Yeovil           5    3   -6      -1.35    33.38    -2.04    38.27    10.34   -40.66     0.00     0.01     0.12     0.02P   74.55R   45.25  
Millwall         5    2   -5      -4.47     5.86    -4.57    49.83    10.34   -16.79     0.03     0.09     1.34     0.30P   30.58R    7.67  
Bolton           5    2   -7      -4.12     8.55    -5.91    62.35    11.10    -0.74     0.91     2.44    14.59     5.40P    5.76R    0.90  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 August 2013, Brentford 0 0 Carlisle; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient    5   15  +11       6.35    98.33     8.27    76.62    11.13    18.95     4.84    14.44    59.44    23.95P    0.33R    0.01  
Wolverhampton    5   13   +8       3.17    85.97     3.23    91.83    11.45    44.00    40.58    65.35    93.17    74.56P    0.00R    0.00  
Peterborough     5   12   +7       2.43    76.33     2.52    90.93    11.87    45.85    37.31    62.17    91.67    71.28P    0.03R    0.00  
Brentford        5    9   +3       0.49    55.16     0.50    71.34    11.02    12.09     1.96     6.78    40.40    14.78P    1.26R    0.08  
Rotherham        5    9   +2       3.17    83.80     3.74    53.95    11.60   -17.98     0.08     0.38     5.05     1.03P   26.56R    5.80  
MK_Dons          5    9   +2       0.82    59.16    -0.03    77.24    11.04    20.17     5.26    15.67    61.91    28.34P    0.31R    0.02  
Bradford         5    8   +5       2.14    76.87     6.67    52.34    11.29   -14.36     0.05     0.20     3.59     0.74P   30.48R    6.19  
Colchester       5    8   +1       1.30    67.24     1.21    56.14    10.81   -12.08     0.07     0.30     5.57     1.14P   18.59R    2.67  
Preston          5    7   +3       0.40    56.34     3.43    68.46    11.15    10.75     1.11     4.09    31.19    10.01P    2.44R    0.20  
Swindon          5    7   +3      -1.92    26.19    -0.07    77.09    10.98    24.06     4.84    15.41    62.15    29.64P    0.35R    0.02  
Crawley_Town     5    7   +1       1.27    68.08     3.18    62.37    11.25    -1.01     0.26     1.30    15.36     3.78P    7.82R    0.83  
Walsall          5    7   -1       0.15    52.84    -0.99    62.70    11.15    -2.47     0.33     1.40    15.60     4.20P    7.23R    0.89  
Oldham           5    6   +0      -0.13    48.78     1.33    54.80    10.72   -11.73     0.04     0.21     4.34     0.80P   21.78R    3.69  
Shrewsbury       5    6   -1       0.31    55.01     0.75    57.58    10.76    -8.55     0.06     0.35     6.65     1.41P   15.14R    2.18  
Stevenage        5    4   -2      -2.26    23.72    -1.11    54.52    10.94   -11.15     0.04     0.20     4.40     0.93P   22.89R    4.18  
Port_Vale        5    4   -4      -1.54    32.81    -1.77    48.48    11.67   -25.03     0.02     0.08     1.99     0.36P   44.32R   13.36  
Sheff_Utd        5    4   -4      -3.83    10.80    -5.47    68.03    11.05     7.71     0.99     3.63    29.43    10.37P    2.65R    0.20  
Tranmere         5    4   -7      -2.42    22.47    -6.20    56.75    10.91   -12.73     0.06     0.34     6.20     1.49P   17.25R    2.65  
Crewe            5    4   -7      -0.95    40.07    -3.77    47.90    10.85   -28.88     0.01     0.05     1.17     0.21P   46.26R   13.14  
Bristol_City     5    3   -2      -4.19     8.67    -2.38    67.85    12.48    11.43     1.57     5.29    32.41    12.23P    4.48R    0.60  
Gillingham       5    3   -5      -1.78    27.69    -1.63    49.01    11.36   -21.33     0.02     0.08     1.84     0.34P   41.80R   11.72  
Carlisle         5    2  -12      -2.85    17.05    -8.53    42.47    10.63   -40.95     0.00     0.01     0.30     0.05P   66.14R   28.30  
Notts_County     5    1   -5      -5.77     2.30    -4.79    58.03    11.08    -4.19     0.10     0.47     7.96     2.17P   14.45R    2.28  
Coventry         5   -2   +4     -10.17     0.00     1.91    62.90    11.50    17.44     0.39     1.79    18.18     6.18P    7.45R    1.00  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 August 2013, AFC_Wimbledon 2 0 Fleetwood_Town; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield          5   13   +7       5.56    97.02     6.15    84.83    10.58    30.66    38.46    69.54    90.75    75.64P    0.00R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd            5   11   +6       3.75    89.51     5.48    73.03    10.74    14.84     7.58    26.63    58.82    34.45P    0.37R    0.10  
Burton_Albion         5   11   +3       4.26    91.59     3.21    68.92    10.90     5.01     4.01    16.13    42.80    21.75P    1.19R    0.40  
AFC_Wimbledon         5   10   +2       3.99    90.77     3.35    58.45    10.43   -10.99     0.39     2.60    12.19     4.11P    8.65R    3.60  
Exeter                5   10   +2       1.72    71.48    -0.13    68.55    10.62     5.49     3.44    14.73    41.74    21.26P    1.01R    0.36  
Fleetwood_Town        5    9   +2       2.23    76.89     2.01    63.92    10.57    -0.08     1.40     7.14    25.97    10.98P    3.00R    1.05  
Southend              5    9   +2       1.79    72.24     1.39    74.13    10.77    15.51     8.88    30.13    62.54    39.04P    0.29R    0.08  
Newport_County        5    8   +2       2.81    84.21     4.81    49.24    10.66   -22.84     0.06     0.45     3.01     0.85P   32.06R   17.85  
Mansfield             5    8   +2       2.12    76.87     3.54    57.40    11.12    -8.81     0.48     2.75    12.00     4.42P   11.42R    5.26  
Bury                  5    7   +3      -1.11    36.50     1.06    73.25    11.63    18.65     9.26    29.60    59.46    38.19P    0.66R    0.21  
Bristol_Rovers        5    7   +0      -0.05    50.10    -0.28    59.19    10.68    -6.58     0.54     3.26    14.43     5.53P    7.63R    3.20  
Wycombe               5    7   +0      -0.13    48.97    -0.41    62.06    10.59    -1.63     1.01     5.30    20.83     8.82P    4.30R    1.67  
Morecambe             5    7   -1       0.40    56.12    -0.50    61.00    10.59    -4.14     0.75     4.26    18.07     7.11P    5.27R    2.11  
Scunthorpe            5    6   +1      -3.20    14.12    -2.64    70.17    11.35    13.06     5.88    20.62    48.77    29.32P    1.08R    0.35  
Plymouth              5    6   -1       0.04    51.66     0.16    58.69    10.25    -5.50     0.37     2.49    12.49     4.51P    7.58R    3.02  
Torquay               5    6   -1      -1.07    36.48    -1.39    60.88    10.60    -2.87     0.79     4.40    18.12     7.54P    5.39R    2.11  
Rochdale              5    5   +1      -1.47    32.89     1.62    66.70    11.04     9.29     2.64    12.42    36.52    18.58P    2.13R    0.72  
Portsmouth            5    5   -2      -3.89    10.90    -5.10    75.20    11.57    20.21    12.16    35.73    65.92    45.75P    0.43R    0.12  
Dag_&_Red             5    5   -3      -1.40    32.84    -2.26    54.69    10.45   -13.05     0.14     1.14     6.95     2.31P   14.82R    6.98  
York                  5    4   -3      -1.60    30.56    -1.25    51.45    10.17   -15.69     0.07     0.55     3.54     1.07P   22.89R   11.48  
Cheltenham            5    4   -6      -2.25    23.09    -4.98    59.68    10.67    -6.65     0.49     3.45    15.11     6.11P    7.22R    2.92  
Northampton           5    3   -3      -3.81     9.18    -2.96    56.94    10.56    -6.66     0.32     1.98    10.35     3.85P   10.50R    4.60  
Hartlepool            5    2   -5      -4.76     5.00    -5.01    60.73    11.03    -0.61     0.88     4.63    18.73     8.63P    6.14R    2.64  
Accrington_Stanley    5    1   -8      -4.56     5.28    -5.86    45.30    10.10   -26.61     0.01     0.08     0.88     0.19P   45.96R   29.18  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 August 2013, Barnet 3 2 Hyde_United; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd     6   14   +9       4.57    92.63     7.03    76.40    10.60    20.76     9.00    50.09    17.84P    0.13R    0.01  
Barnet            6   14   +8       1.82    70.83     1.60    87.44    10.91    37.29    42.13    83.92    55.67P    0.00R    0.00  
Nuneaton          6   14   +5       7.09    98.62     6.92    68.59    10.38     5.06     1.82    21.78     4.92P    0.97R    0.08  
Lincoln_City      6   13   +4       4.99    92.79     4.30    69.31    10.53     6.56     2.49    24.38     6.48P    0.88R    0.09  
Southport         6   12   +1       4.30    88.91     1.82    62.95    10.58    -6.01     0.77    10.11     2.16P    3.99R    0.58  
Forest_Green      6   11  +10       0.52    56.00     6.45    76.25    10.42    26.20     8.87    50.07    19.46P    0.12R    0.00  
Hereford          6   11   +3       0.21    52.08    -0.84    72.05    10.55    13.00     4.32    33.58    11.05P    0.46R    0.04  
Grimsby           6   10   +2      -0.34    45.32    -1.19    76.66    10.28    20.29     8.85    50.81    20.45P    0.07R    0.01  
Braintree_Town    6   10   +1       2.73    79.71     2.42    62.92    10.50    -2.07     0.57    10.26     2.13P    3.72R    0.54  
Halifax           6   10   -2       3.49    85.07     0.96    51.92    11.58   -25.06     0.12     2.23     0.44P   26.49R    8.20  
Luton             6    9   +3      -0.41    44.96     1.17    75.16    10.25    20.43     6.68    44.76    16.91P    0.18R    0.01  
Kidderminster     6    9   +0      -1.57    31.67    -3.68    76.72    10.53    20.45     9.28    50.93    20.87P    0.13R    0.01  
Alfreton_Town     6    9   -1       2.04    73.39     1.21    60.01    10.65    -8.15     0.34     6.42     1.25P    7.12R    1.26  
Welling           6    8   +1       1.29    66.64     3.49    55.50    11.78   -11.16     0.30     4.48     1.01P   17.03R    4.41  
Salisbury         6    7   -1       0.24    54.64     1.28    49.77    11.25   -19.92     0.06     1.40     0.30P   31.49R   10.30  
Dartford          6    6   -5      -1.81    29.78    -4.39    54.65    10.27   -14.49     0.08     2.09     0.38P   15.41R    3.46  
Wrexham           6    5   -4      -6.21     2.95    -8.69    68.68    10.50     9.68     2.29    23.21     8.07P    0.98R    0.12  
Tamworth          6    5   -5      -1.09    38.87    -1.87    49.79     9.99   -19.94     0.02     0.63     0.10P   29.00R    7.76  
Gateshead         6    4   -4      -2.94    19.00    -1.94    56.44    10.45    -7.67     0.10     3.27     0.68P   11.76R    2.44  
Woking            6    4   -4      -3.47    14.96    -2.60    49.94    10.43   -19.53     0.02     0.89     0.12P   29.35R    8.39  
Macclesfield      6    3   -3      -5.31     4.54    -3.22    56.81    10.38    -4.42     0.11     3.46     0.81P   10.87R    2.25  
Chester           6    3   -8      -1.78    28.58    -1.98    41.81    10.91   -33.98     0.01     0.25     0.05P   60.50R   31.09  
Hyde_United       6    2  -11      -3.14    14.99    -5.41    45.18    10.32   -31.57     0.00     0.24     0.04P   47.67R   18.75  
Aldershot         6   -3   +1     -13.76     0.00    -2.83    67.21    10.67    24.24     1.78    20.77     8.81P    1.67R    0.20  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10