Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 3 September 2013 at 22:00:02 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 1 September 2013, Arsenal 1 0 Tottenham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool         3    9   +3       4.02    95.30     1.79    70.01     9.23    22.24    11.29    26.30    43.04    59.94    85.50     0.02R    0.00  
Chelsea           3    7   +3       1.36    77.25     0.63    72.51     9.31    29.46    18.26    37.44    55.31    70.61    90.66     0.00R    0.00  
Man_City          3    6   +5      -0.80    31.01     0.82    73.06     9.14    34.11    20.65    40.86    58.41    73.48    92.10     0.01R    0.00  
Arsenal           3    6   +1       0.41    53.46    -1.24    69.04     9.44    24.11    10.82    24.09    39.87    56.25    82.99     0.03R    0.00  
Stoke             3    6   +1       2.28    84.00     1.42    47.29     8.69    -7.08     0.04     0.17     0.51     1.27     6.77     8.84R    1.32  
Tottenham         3    6   +1       1.02    64.98    -0.27    63.76     9.37    15.54     3.57    10.26    19.95    33.10    65.04     0.19R    0.02  
Man_Utd           3    4   +2      -1.13    33.16     0.49    76.68     8.94    41.80    34.59    57.68    74.11    85.22    96.28     0.00R    0.00  
West_Ham          3    4   +1      -0.45    44.02     0.48    45.92     9.01    -7.73     0.03     0.13     0.46     1.24     6.00    12.25R    2.42  
Norwich           3    4   +0      -0.04    51.64     0.02    42.82     8.87   -14.38     0.01     0.05     0.17     0.51     2.88    21.05R    4.92  
Southampton       3    4   +0       0.06    53.81     0.22    45.09     8.97   -10.68     0.02     0.11     0.39     1.00     4.95    14.25R    3.05  
Cardiff           3    4   -1       1.21    73.67     0.86    41.39     9.30   -17.05     0.00     0.06     0.20     0.52     2.64    27.52R    7.75  
Newcastle         3    4   -3       0.54    62.42    -1.82    44.97     9.08   -14.06     0.02     0.11     0.37     0.98     4.93    15.51R    3.41  
Aston_Villa       3    3   +0       0.79    65.97     3.09    46.30     9.31    -7.29     0.05     0.18     0.55     1.36     6.70    12.55R    2.60  
Crystal_Palace    3    3   +0       0.19    54.60     1.83    32.24     8.73   -30.97     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.28    66.65R   36.05  
Everton           3    3   +0      -2.05    18.59    -1.34    56.04     9.09     7.58     0.57     2.04     5.08    10.21    31.16     1.15R    0.13  
Swansea           3    3   -2       0.21    55.01    -0.11    47.22     8.98    -7.11     0.03     0.19     0.56     1.55     7.30     9.70R    1.83  
Fulham            3    3   -2      -0.57    40.76    -1.27    47.34     9.12    -7.52     0.04     0.22     0.64     1.61     7.76     9.82R    1.87  
Hull              3    3   -3       0.94    69.16     0.36    34.94     8.57   -25.23     0.00     0.01     0.01     0.05     0.40    54.56R   22.70  
Sunderland        3    1   -3      -3.08     9.63    -3.03    40.77     8.88   -14.74     0.01     0.04     0.09     0.32     1.81    27.76R    7.46  
West_Brom         3    1   -3      -3.01    10.28    -2.91    43.82     9.09   -10.99     0.02     0.07     0.28     0.75     3.86    18.13R    4.47  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 August 2013, Barnsley 2 1 Huddersfield; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Blackpool        5   13   +5       5.04    95.45     3.31    75.87    10.95    15.12     9.98    20.04    55.99    28.50P    0.27R    0.03  
QPR              5   13   +4       4.76    94.53     1.99    79.60    11.19    19.46    18.26    32.04    67.87    41.87P    0.11R    0.00  
Burnley          5   10   +4       2.40    78.78     2.77    70.30    10.91    10.16     4.17     9.56    36.38    15.76P    1.02R    0.07  
Nott'm_Forest    5   10   +4       3.35    86.59     4.33    71.36    10.89    12.11     4.98    11.01    39.29    17.50P    0.78R    0.09  
Leicester        5   10   +2       2.04    74.20     0.34    76.93    10.81    18.30    11.85    23.36    60.08    32.97P    0.20R    0.01  
Bournemouth      5    9   -6       4.30    91.89    -2.20    50.53    11.02   -30.64     0.08     0.20     2.10     0.47P   31.95R    9.22  
Watford          5    8   +5       0.12    52.20     3.31    76.93    11.30    25.03    13.01    25.07    60.77    34.68P    0.30R    0.04  
Wigan            5    8   +4      -1.62    29.48    -0.33    77.37    11.73    24.63    15.01    27.01    61.63    37.40P    0.34R    0.04  
Reading          5    8   +1      -0.15    48.45    -0.98    75.42    11.71    18.24    11.10    21.53    54.47    30.82P    0.54R    0.05  
Leeds_United     5    8   +1       1.65    71.86     1.69    63.08    10.85    -0.78     1.02     2.59    15.48     5.12P    4.68R    0.68  
Blackburn        5    7   +3      -0.88    39.21     1.42    65.98    10.92     7.19     1.83     4.82    23.28     9.08P    2.69R    0.34  
Huddersfield     5    7   +3       0.51    57.87     3.43    57.18    10.77    -6.35     0.29     0.82     6.57     1.86P   12.04R    2.26  
Brighton         5    7   +1      -0.98    37.66    -0.63    70.69    10.72    12.39     4.25    10.01    37.38    17.45P    0.84R    0.08  
Derby            5    7   +0       0.19    53.36     0.02    61.86    10.77    -1.93     0.72     2.09    12.87     4.22P    5.62R    0.80  
Middlesbrough    5    6   +0      -0.25    47.38     0.93    61.21    10.79    -1.32     0.61     1.79    11.86     3.88P    6.32R    1.05  
Ipswich          5    4   +0      -1.82    28.23     1.52    56.00    10.79    -6.15     0.16     0.63     5.29     1.57P   14.49R    2.86  
Charlton         4    4   -1      -1.97    25.19    -1.73    61.29    11.09    -1.36     0.82     2.17    12.83     4.54P    6.45R    0.96  
Doncaster        4    4   -1      -0.60    43.85     0.48    49.81    11.25   -18.80     0.06     0.22     2.12     0.56P   33.34R   10.02  
Birmingham       5    4   -2      -3.17    15.30    -2.45    62.01    10.96     0.84     0.77     2.17    13.88     5.01P    5.60R    0.77  
Barnsley         5    4   -7      -1.08    38.12    -4.03    47.57    10.44   -27.49     0.01     0.05     0.80     0.18P   40.66R   12.93  
Sheff_Wed        5    3   -2      -2.87    16.26    -0.63    53.62    10.67   -10.36     0.10     0.35     3.33     0.93P   20.03R    4.44  
Yeovil           5    3   -6      -1.37    33.10    -2.08    38.32    10.25   -40.42     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.01P   74.90R   44.72  
Millwall         5    2   -5      -4.48     5.83    -4.57    50.03    10.38   -16.53     0.04     0.13     1.42     0.39P   30.33R    7.45  
Bolton           5    2   -7      -4.12     8.48    -5.91    61.99    11.27    -1.33     0.88     2.32    14.20     5.23P    6.50R    1.11  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 August 2013, Brentford 0 0 Carlisle; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient    5   15  +11       6.33    98.24     8.23    76.42    11.26    18.70     4.90    14.49    58.57    23.70P    0.39R    0.01  
Wolverhampton    5   13   +8       3.14    85.83     3.18    92.01    11.52    44.35    40.74    66.01    93.48    75.28P    0.01R    0.00  
Peterborough     5   12   +7       2.47    76.71     2.57    90.84    11.93    45.61    37.03    61.89    91.50    70.73P    0.03R    0.00  
Brentford        5    9   +3       0.48    54.66     0.47    71.10    10.93    11.73     1.78     6.11    39.86    14.16P    1.21R    0.07  
Rotherham        5    9   +2       3.15    83.65     3.71    54.14    11.69   -17.69     0.08     0.39     5.25     1.12P   26.55R    5.62  
MK_Dons          5    9   +2       0.81    59.41    -0.05    77.23    10.93    20.13     5.21    15.21    61.95    28.04P    0.34R    0.02  
Bradford         5    8   +5       2.15    76.83     6.64    52.36    11.28   -14.40     0.06     0.22     3.70     0.72P   29.89R    6.28  
Colchester       5    8   +1       1.27    66.81     1.16    56.23    10.72   -11.93     0.05     0.30     5.51     1.09P   18.13R    2.61  
Preston          5    7   +3       0.45    57.01     3.50    68.39    11.21    10.59     1.10     4.09    31.15     9.89P    2.58R    0.23  
Swindon          5    7   +3      -1.94    25.60    -0.12    77.40    10.96    24.50     5.13    15.94    63.30    30.54P    0.27R    0.01  
Crawley_Town     5    7   +1       1.25    67.67     3.16    62.47    11.28    -0.85     0.28     1.33    15.77     3.83P    7.94R    0.94  
Walsall          5    7   -1       0.16    52.74    -0.99    62.72    11.12    -2.38     0.32     1.38    15.67     4.12P    7.32R    0.81  
Oldham           5    6   +0      -0.15    48.48     1.29    55.02    10.85   -11.37     0.04     0.22     4.81     0.98P   21.66R    3.40  
Shrewsbury       5    6   -1       0.35    55.83     0.80    57.35    10.74    -8.85     0.07     0.36     6.55     1.35P   15.58R    2.25  
Stevenage        5    4   -2      -2.28    23.55    -1.15    54.83    10.82   -10.68     0.05     0.21     4.35     0.96P   21.81R    3.73  
Port_Vale        5    4   -4      -1.53    32.71    -1.73    48.45    11.69   -25.05     0.01     0.10     2.16     0.44P   44.83R   13.64  
Sheff_Utd        5    4   -4      -3.79    11.05    -5.42    67.91    11.18     7.50     1.00     3.73    29.38    10.52P    2.91R    0.23  
Tranmere         5    4   -7      -2.41    22.57    -6.19    56.84    10.88   -12.63     0.07     0.32     6.27     1.45P   17.13R    2.68  
Crewe            5    4   -7      -0.96    39.89    -3.75    47.96    10.85   -28.68     0.01     0.04     1.19     0.19P   45.89R   13.23  
Bristol_City     5    3   -2      -4.14     8.74    -2.33    67.63    12.54    11.06     1.50     5.29    31.47    12.13P    4.69R    0.53  
Gillingham       5    3   -5      -1.79    27.57    -1.64    49.12    11.40   -21.15     0.01     0.08     1.95     0.43P   41.74R   11.61  
Carlisle         5    2  -12      -2.84    17.42    -8.46    42.21    10.60   -41.47     0.00     0.01     0.30     0.05P   67.21R   29.02  
Notts_County     5    1   -5      -5.78     2.29    -4.78    57.99    11.02    -4.24     0.10     0.52     7.88     2.18P   14.46R    2.14  
Coventry         5   -2   +4     -10.19     0.00     1.89    62.79    11.53    17.20     0.46     1.77    17.98     6.10P    7.45R    0.95  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 August 2013, AFC_Wimbledon 2 0 Fleetwood_Town; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield          5   13   +7       5.59    97.05     6.20    84.64    10.64    30.40    37.86    68.69    90.33    75.15P    0.01R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd            5   11   +6       3.74    89.34     5.46    73.26    10.69    15.28     7.82    27.42    59.86    35.15P    0.29R    0.09  
Burton_Albion         5   11   +3       4.28    91.78     3.25    68.83    10.88     4.86     3.82    15.83    42.63    21.33P    1.19R    0.39  
AFC_Wimbledon         5   10   +2       3.99    90.70     3.36    58.53    10.42   -10.89     0.42     2.67    12.26     4.21P    8.28R    3.50  
Exeter                5   10   +2       1.71    71.23    -0.17    68.76    10.68     5.85     3.67    15.33    42.23    21.63P    1.03R    0.34  
Fleetwood_Town        5    9   +2       2.23    76.49     2.02    63.75    10.59    -0.37     1.39     7.03    25.36    10.72P    3.15R    1.18  
Southend              5    9   +2       1.78    72.13     1.37    74.06    10.78    15.45     9.08    30.15    62.31    38.98P    0.33R    0.09  
Newport_County        5    8   +2       2.81    84.35     4.84    49.13    10.70   -23.03     0.05     0.49     3.04     0.87P   32.91R   18.40  
Mansfield             5    8   +2       2.06    76.41     3.44    57.71    11.13    -8.39     0.47     2.87    12.60     4.77P   10.82R    5.03  
Bury                  5    7   +3      -1.12    36.17     1.01    73.25    11.74    18.67     9.41    29.96    59.60    38.66P    0.66R    0.23  
Bristol_Rovers        5    7   +0      -0.08    49.80    -0.29    59.24    10.60    -6.44     0.51     3.15    14.42     5.40P    7.25R    2.95  
Wycombe               5    7   +0      -0.13    49.00    -0.39    62.14    10.50    -1.52     0.81     4.96    21.24     8.51P    4.28R    1.67  
Morecambe             5    7   -1       0.44    56.67    -0.45    60.80    10.55    -4.47     0.69     4.04    17.55     6.90P    5.57R    2.26  
Scunthorpe            5    6   +1      -3.21    14.14    -2.68    70.33    11.47    13.34     6.01    21.32    49.44    30.19P    1.09R    0.41  
Plymouth              5    6   -1       0.06    51.64     0.18    58.67    10.32    -5.58     0.40     2.52    12.36     4.60P    7.64R    3.19  
Torquay               5    6   -1      -1.11    35.54    -1.45    61.04    10.46    -2.58     0.75     4.23    18.12     7.37P    5.02R    1.95  
Rochdale              5    5   +1      -1.50    32.88     1.60    66.64    11.02     9.16     2.87    12.29    36.11    18.26P    1.97R    0.80  
Portsmouth            5    5   -2      -3.87    10.95    -5.08    75.10    11.60    20.04    12.15    35.53    65.50    45.58P    0.43R    0.14  
Dag_&_Red             5    5   -3      -1.37    33.23    -2.21    54.71    10.41   -13.06     0.15     1.16     6.82     2.25P   15.03R    6.90  
York                  5    4   -3      -1.59    30.92    -1.24    51.21    10.05   -15.97     0.04     0.45     3.31     0.96P   23.67R   11.65  
Cheltenham            5    4   -6      -2.25    22.77    -5.02    59.77    10.57    -6.49     0.53     3.20    15.18     5.97P    6.60R    2.68  
Northampton           5    3   -3      -3.80     9.10    -2.96    56.92    10.67    -6.68     0.32     2.16    10.65     4.12P   10.67R    4.71  
Hartlepool            5    2   -5      -4.71     5.18    -4.95    60.48    10.95    -1.02     0.76     4.47    18.17     8.21P    6.20R    2.43  
Accrington_Stanley    5    1   -8      -4.58     5.30    -5.85    45.42    10.04   -26.58     0.01     0.08     0.91     0.22P   45.90R   29.01  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 August 2013, Barnet 3 2 Hyde_United; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd     6   14   +9       4.57    92.83     7.03    76.17    10.53    20.44     8.59    48.91    17.33P    0.15R    0.01  
Barnet            6   14   +8       1.80    70.55     1.55    87.85    10.85    37.94    43.47    85.12    56.72P    0.01R    0.00  
Nuneaton          6   14   +5       7.11    98.59     6.94    68.77    10.42     5.32     1.92    22.25     5.15P    1.00R    0.10  
Lincoln_City      6   13   +4       5.01    92.83     4.30    69.06    10.48     6.15     2.38    23.36     5.91P    0.99R    0.11  
Southport         6   12   +1       4.31    89.21     1.85    62.97    10.58    -5.95     0.72    10.13     2.06P    3.95R    0.62  
Forest_Green      6   11  +10       0.49    55.53     6.37    76.30    10.41    26.30     8.94    50.58    19.77P    0.13R    0.01  
Hereford          6   11   +3       0.20    51.84    -0.87    72.01    10.48    12.87     4.14    33.68    10.82P    0.45R    0.06  
Grimsby           6   10   +2      -0.33    45.61    -1.19    76.50    10.19    20.01     8.32    50.36    19.72P    0.08R    0.00  
Braintree_Town    6   10   +1       2.78    80.32     2.52    62.91    10.53    -2.12     0.64    10.21     2.15P    3.83R    0.54  
Halifax           6   10   -2       3.42    84.74     0.87    52.40    11.54   -24.27     0.13     2.51     0.49P   25.37R    7.76  
Luton             6    9   +3      -0.40    45.12     1.22    74.95    10.32    20.14     6.56    44.83    16.71P    0.19R    0.02  
Kidderminster     6    9   +0      -1.58    31.05    -3.68    76.77    10.48    20.52     9.42    51.63    21.62P    0.13R    0.01  
Alfreton_Town     6    9   -1       2.14    74.36     1.40    59.48    10.74    -9.06     0.32     6.04     1.14P    8.02R    1.50  
Welling           6    8   +1       1.36    67.80     3.59    55.08    11.62   -11.73     0.26     3.93     0.86P   17.56R    4.79  
Salisbury         6    7   -1       0.14    53.36     1.12    50.27    11.22   -19.10     0.06     1.50     0.32P   30.04R    9.45  
Dartford          6    6   -5      -1.79    29.97    -4.36    54.40    10.22   -14.81     0.07     1.87     0.34P   15.97R    3.58  
Wrexham           6    5   -4      -6.20     2.95    -8.65    68.51    10.35     9.40     1.88    22.30     7.57P    0.98R    0.12  
Tamworth          6    5   -5      -1.04    39.34    -1.78    49.56     9.90   -20.27     0.01     0.52     0.09P   29.82R    8.16  
Gateshead         6    4   -4      -2.96    18.84    -1.97    56.55    10.45    -7.55     0.12     3.24     0.69P   11.60R    2.56  
Woking            6    4   -4      -3.47    15.13    -2.59    49.92    10.42   -19.59     0.03     0.86     0.17P   29.45R    8.57  
Macclesfield      6    3   -3      -5.36     4.48    -3.28    56.75    10.53    -4.49     0.13     3.58     0.84P   11.40R    2.43  
Chester           6    3   -8      -1.85    27.39    -2.08    42.23    11.02   -33.36     0.01     0.26     0.04P   59.12R   30.16  
Hyde_United       6    2  -11      -3.13    15.03    -5.39    45.14    10.37   -31.49     0.00     0.24     0.02P   48.03R   19.23  
Aldershot         6   -3   +1     -13.80     0.00    -2.90    67.52    10.80    24.70     1.88    22.08     9.44P    1.72R    0.21  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10