Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 2 September 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 1 September 2013, Arsenal 1 0 Tottenham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool         3    9   +3       4.04    95.32     1.81    69.87     9.28    22.04    11.48    26.03    42.52    59.27    85.01     0.02R    0.00  
Chelsea           3    7   +3       1.38    77.47     0.66    72.52     9.21    29.41    17.88    37.57    55.59    70.83    90.75     0.00R    0.00  
Man_City          3    6   +5      -0.82    30.70     0.77    73.08     9.17    34.07    20.73    40.74    58.77    73.74    91.96     0.01R    0.00  
Arsenal           3    6   +1       0.42    53.58    -1.24    68.94     9.38    23.99    10.48    23.92    39.43    55.96    82.82     0.02R    0.00  
Stoke             3    6   +1       2.27    83.86     1.41    47.35     8.67    -7.04     0.03     0.19     0.53     1.40     6.88     8.31R    1.33  
Tottenham         3    6   +1       1.01    64.52    -0.28    63.76     9.35    15.54     3.81    10.52    20.06    32.78    64.96     0.17R    0.01  
Man_Utd           3    4   +2      -1.14    32.90     0.48    76.65     8.88    41.72    34.72    57.75    74.21    85.55    96.44     0.00R    0.00  
West_Ham          3    4   +1      -0.43    44.46     0.51    45.84     8.94    -7.86     0.03     0.11     0.42     1.16     5.74    12.27R    2.43  
Norwich           3    4   +0      -0.03    51.73     0.03    42.77     8.92   -14.39     0.00     0.03     0.11     0.47     2.92    21.45R    5.04  
Southampton       3    4   +0       0.08    54.14     0.25    45.17     9.02   -10.52     0.02     0.11     0.38     0.97     5.07    14.08R    3.10  
Cardiff           3    4   -1       1.22    73.62     0.89    41.35     9.35   -17.30     0.01     0.05     0.20     0.51     2.59    27.73R    8.10  
Newcastle         3    4   -3       0.55    62.52    -1.81    44.96     9.05   -14.06     0.01     0.08     0.30     0.91     4.67    15.76R    3.51  
Aston_Villa       3    3   +0       0.78    65.87     3.05    46.18     9.14    -7.43     0.03     0.15     0.45     1.26     6.32    12.26R    2.71  
Crystal_Palace    3    3   +0       0.17    54.53     1.80    32.49     8.79   -30.51     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.26    65.80R   34.65  
Everton           3    3   +0      -2.07    18.39    -1.36    56.24     9.19     7.93     0.67     2.22     5.41    10.90    32.31     1.25R    0.17  
Swansea           3    3   -2       0.20    54.66    -0.11    47.33     9.07    -6.96     0.06     0.22     0.63     1.61     7.53     9.71R    1.87  
Fulham            3    3   -2      -0.55    41.12    -1.25    47.16     9.16    -7.75     0.04     0.20     0.62     1.62     7.64    10.16R    1.95  
Hull              3    3   -3       0.96    69.52     0.39    34.64     8.48   -25.58     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.29    56.25R   23.93  
Sunderland        3    1   -3      -3.10     9.71    -3.06    41.05     8.78   -14.31     0.00     0.02     0.09     0.27     1.86    26.51R    6.79  
West_Brom         3    1   -3      -3.01    10.30    -2.91    43.81     9.10   -10.99     0.01     0.09     0.27     0.73     4.00    18.24R    4.40  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 August 2013, Barnsley 2 1 Huddersfield; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Blackpool        5   13   +5       5.03    95.41     3.29    75.96    10.92    15.27    10.11    20.52    55.99    28.77P    0.28R    0.02  
QPR              5   13   +4       4.72    94.35     1.92    80.20    11.28    20.32    19.86    33.99    69.77    43.90P    0.11R    0.01  
Burnley          5   10   +4       2.38    78.43     2.75    70.31    10.84    10.22     4.11     9.57    36.03    15.59P    0.92R    0.09  
Nott'm_Forest    5   10   +4       3.38    86.68     4.37    71.09    10.70    11.63     4.26    10.26    38.53    16.56P    0.72R    0.07  
Leicester        5   10   +2       2.06    74.30     0.39    76.78    10.87    18.11    11.74    23.11    59.51    32.88P    0.22R    0.01  
Bournemouth      5    9   -6       4.32    91.97    -2.20    50.20    11.02   -31.12     0.06     0.22     2.14     0.46P   33.05R    9.56  
Watford          5    8   +5       0.14    52.50     3.35    76.89    11.15    24.92    12.60    24.57    60.77    34.66P    0.24R    0.02  
Wigan            5    8   +4      -1.58    30.26    -0.28    77.03    11.96    24.08    14.89    26.75    60.29    36.86P    0.38R    0.04  
Reading          5    8   +1      -0.15    48.55    -0.95    75.36    11.60    18.15    10.77    20.94    54.22    30.39P    0.52R    0.05  
Leeds_United     5    8   +1       1.65    71.61     1.68    63.06    10.90    -0.80     0.95     2.68    15.67     5.20P    4.73R    0.64  
Blackburn        5    7   +3      -0.89    39.02     1.40    66.09    11.03     7.32     2.05     5.01    23.71     9.40P    2.60R    0.32  
Huddersfield     5    7   +3       0.50    57.66     3.45    57.08    10.77    -6.55     0.28     0.90     6.51     1.90P   12.31R    2.16  
Brighton         5    7   +1      -0.94    38.22    -0.58    70.42    10.71    12.01     4.08     9.38    36.48    16.61P    0.94R    0.10  
Derby            5    7   +0       0.14    52.70    -0.05    62.37    10.76    -1.17     0.82     2.24    14.07     4.69P    5.05R    0.66  
Middlesbrough    5    6   +0      -0.27    47.30     0.92    61.19    10.81    -1.37     0.68     1.92    12.11     4.05P    6.41R    1.00  
Ipswich          5    4   +0      -1.83    28.04     1.50    56.35    10.64    -5.61     0.19     0.59     5.40     1.57P   13.45R    2.52  
Charlton         4    4   -1      -1.96    25.20    -1.72    61.26    11.15    -1.35     0.85     2.16    13.02     4.55P    6.87R    1.11  
Doncaster        4    4   -1      -0.61    43.66     0.47    49.71    11.27   -18.98     0.06     0.21     2.12     0.54P   33.80R   10.04  
Birmingham       5    4   -2      -3.19    15.13    -2.50    62.07    10.92     0.92     0.74     2.24    13.94     4.96P    5.53R    0.74  
Barnsley         5    4   -7      -1.12    37.80    -4.13    47.85    10.43   -26.97     0.02     0.09     0.97     0.24P   39.58R   12.12  
Sheff_Wed        5    3   -2      -2.86    16.55    -0.59    53.46    10.69   -10.60     0.09     0.32     3.23     0.87P   20.53R    4.58  
Yeovil           5    3   -6      -1.34    33.27    -2.02    38.20    10.26   -40.69     0.00     0.01     0.09     0.01P   75.02R   45.51  
Millwall         5    2   -5      -4.48     5.76    -4.58    49.90    10.31   -16.65     0.03     0.11     1.39     0.33P   30.68R    7.62  
Bolton           5    2   -7      -4.11     8.42    -5.90    62.16    11.06    -1.07     0.76     2.22    14.05     4.99P    6.06R    1.01  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 August 2013, Brentford 0 0 Carlisle; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient    5   15  +11       6.30    98.23     8.21    76.80    11.15    19.26     5.05    14.83    59.92    24.42P    0.33R    0.01  
Wolverhampton    5   13   +8       3.14    85.82     3.20    92.01    11.48    44.33    40.75    65.37    93.52    74.67P    0.00R    0.00  
Peterborough     5   12   +7       2.45    76.53     2.57    90.76    11.91    45.39    36.87    61.95    91.41    70.97P    0.03R    0.00  
Brentford        5    9   +3       0.45    54.63     0.42    71.65    10.93    12.47     1.95     6.66    41.48    14.89P    1.03R    0.06  
Rotherham        5    9   +2       3.13    83.28     3.69    54.27    11.68   -17.54     0.09     0.39     5.27     1.16P   25.94R    5.26  
MK_Dons          5    9   +2       0.83    59.65    -0.03    77.08    10.98    19.93     4.99    15.04    61.05    27.44P    0.32R    0.01  
Bradford         5    8   +5       2.18    77.17     6.70    52.04    11.15   -14.86     0.03     0.17     3.26     0.65P   31.02R    6.39  
Colchester       5    8   +1       1.34    67.84     1.29    55.67    10.72   -12.77     0.05     0.26     5.00     0.99P   19.80R    2.95  
Preston          5    7   +3       0.45    56.81     3.51    68.35    11.18    10.59     1.02     4.04    30.70     9.73P    2.60R    0.23  
Swindon          5    7   +3      -1.92    26.02    -0.10    77.30    11.14    24.43     5.29    15.98    62.60    30.49P    0.33R    0.01  
Crawley_Town     5    7   +1       1.28    68.20     3.17    62.46    11.08    -0.89     0.27     1.30    15.28     3.79P    7.32R    0.81  
Walsall          5    7   -1       0.10    52.27    -1.06    62.88    11.13    -2.19     0.38     1.46    15.93     4.27P    6.98R    0.70  
Oldham           5    6   +0      -0.12    48.97     1.30    54.86    10.78   -11.60     0.03     0.20     4.57     0.85P   21.60R    3.78  
Shrewsbury       5    6   -1       0.35    55.46     0.83    57.41    10.84    -8.80     0.07     0.41     6.70     1.49P   15.65R    2.25  
Stevenage        5    4   -2      -2.28    23.32    -1.14    54.70    10.79   -10.80     0.04     0.19     4.27     0.94P   21.94R    3.96  
Port_Vale        5    4   -4      -1.59    32.14    -1.81    48.52    11.61   -24.93     0.01     0.09     2.06     0.41P   43.88R   13.27  
Sheff_Utd        5    4   -4      -3.86    10.78    -5.50    68.22    11.12     8.00     1.03     3.95    30.30    10.81P    2.62R    0.22  
Tranmere         5    4   -7      -2.41    22.75    -6.19    56.79    10.96   -12.68     0.08     0.34     6.34     1.36P   17.26R    2.82  
Crewe            5    4   -7      -0.96    40.11    -3.76    48.07    10.86   -28.53     0.00     0.05     1.27     0.22P   45.63R   12.90  
Bristol_City     5    3   -2      -4.15     8.74    -2.34    67.54    12.49    10.93     1.43     5.05    31.06    11.62P    4.77R    0.62  
Gillingham       5    3   -5      -1.77    27.69    -1.61    49.03    11.36   -21.28     0.02     0.08     1.85     0.42P   41.75R   11.73  
Carlisle         5    2  -12      -2.84    17.46    -8.50    42.33    10.67   -41.24     0.00     0.01     0.36     0.05P   66.68R   28.79  
Notts_County     5    1   -5      -5.73     2.37    -4.72    57.88    11.14    -4.37     0.11     0.49     8.15     2.22P   14.92R    2.21  
Coventry         5   -2   +4     -10.19     0.00     1.86    62.72    11.53    17.17     0.44     1.70    17.63     6.15P    7.61R    1.01  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 August 2013, AFC_Wimbledon 2 0 Fleetwood_Town; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield          5   13   +7       5.59    97.08     6.20    84.79    10.56    30.64    38.01    69.48    90.66    75.82P    0.01R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd            5   11   +6       3.76    89.54     5.48    73.22    10.67    15.15     7.64    26.89    59.59    34.76P    0.36R    0.10  
Burton_Albion         5   11   +3       4.26    91.48     3.21    69.06    10.89     5.24     3.87    16.11    43.56    21.76P    1.23R    0.44  
AFC_Wimbledon         5   10   +2       4.01    90.94     3.39    58.36    10.50   -11.11     0.38     2.53    12.44     4.15P    8.95R    3.85  
Exeter                5   10   +2       1.70    71.10    -0.18    68.62    10.71     5.64     3.70    15.03    41.72    21.31P    1.11R    0.31  
Fleetwood_Town        5    9   +2       2.22    76.45     2.00    63.70    10.64    -0.47     1.38     7.06    25.37    10.85P    3.04R    1.20  
Southend              5    9   +2       1.78    72.51     1.38    73.94    10.67    15.13     8.54    29.55    62.24    38.51P    0.29R    0.10  
Newport_County        5    8   +2       2.79    83.96     4.81    49.42    10.63   -22.60     0.08     0.45     3.03     0.85P   31.32R   17.30  
Mansfield             5    8   +2       2.15    77.41     3.57    57.29    11.12    -9.01     0.52     2.68    11.68     4.40P   11.44R    5.30  
Bury                  5    7   +3      -1.14    35.92     1.01    73.33    11.64    18.77     9.39    29.50    59.83    38.29P    0.64R    0.22  
Bristol_Rovers        5    7   +0      -0.07    49.79    -0.26    59.29    10.51    -6.38     0.46     3.10    14.18     5.35P    7.27R    2.97  
Wycombe               5    7   +0      -0.15    48.85    -0.44    62.27    10.58    -1.26     0.98     5.37    21.47     8.93P    4.08R    1.67  
Morecambe             5    7   -1       0.41    56.26    -0.49    60.90    10.44    -4.23     0.60     4.15    17.47     6.92P    5.20R    2.09  
Scunthorpe            5    6   +1      -3.27    13.50    -2.76    70.80    11.47    14.00     6.66    22.27    50.65    30.85P    0.95R    0.36  
Plymouth              5    6   -1       0.09    52.28     0.22    58.47    10.25    -5.83     0.35     2.32    11.96     4.39P    7.65R    3.05  
Torquay               5    6   -1      -1.11    35.91    -1.42    60.97    10.46    -2.78     0.67     4.10    17.81     7.15P    5.06R    2.04  
Rochdale              5    5   +1      -1.50    32.91     1.60    66.81    10.98     9.38     2.62    12.40    36.87    18.59P    1.95R    0.70  
Portsmouth            5    5   -2      -3.92    10.75    -5.14    75.20    11.52    20.26    12.30    35.52    65.69    45.51P    0.41R    0.12  
Dag_&_Red             5    5   -3      -1.35    33.40    -2.18    54.44    10.45   -13.44     0.12     1.17     6.55     2.25P   15.43R    7.13  
York                  5    4   -3      -1.54    31.25    -1.21    51.08    10.02   -16.16     0.05     0.39     3.01     0.81P   23.85R   11.90  
Cheltenham            5    4   -6      -2.25    22.92    -5.00    59.71    10.57    -6.57     0.51     3.32    15.06     5.95P    6.73R    2.68  
Northampton           5    3   -3      -3.81     9.09    -2.99    56.90    10.66    -6.76     0.31     2.08    10.34     4.04P   10.66R    4.83  
Hartlepool            5    2   -5      -4.75     5.07    -4.99    60.38    11.04    -1.11     0.84     4.42    17.91     8.32P    6.68R    2.76  
Accrington_Stanley    5    1   -8      -4.55     5.44    -5.82    45.41    10.02   -26.52     0.01     0.09     0.88     0.26P   45.70R   28.87  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 August 2013, Barnet 3 2 Hyde_United; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd     6   14   +9       4.57    92.67     7.02    76.38    10.54    20.74     8.78    49.89    17.61P    0.13R    0.00  
Barnet            6   14   +8       1.76    70.35     1.49    87.80    10.91    37.92    43.58    84.74    56.94P    0.01R    0.00  
Nuneaton          6   14   +5       7.07    98.60     6.90    68.62    10.33     5.09     1.84    21.49     4.88P    1.02R    0.07  
Lincoln_City      6   13   +4       5.02    92.96     4.33    69.07    10.46     6.17     2.20    23.37     5.87P    0.92R    0.09  
Southport         6   12   +1       4.29    89.13     1.83    62.94    10.44    -6.04     0.67     9.83     1.96P    3.82R    0.59  
Forest_Green      6   11  +10       0.53    56.21     6.45    76.19    10.49    26.08     8.64    50.14    19.40P    0.14R    0.01  
Hereford          6   11   +3       0.19    51.82    -0.89    71.98    10.44    12.94     4.06    33.30    10.70P    0.40R    0.03  
Grimsby           6   10   +2      -0.35    45.29    -1.20    76.71    10.29    20.38     8.80    51.05    20.44P    0.13R    0.01  
Braintree_Town    6   10   +1       2.75    80.08     2.45    63.03    10.59    -1.99     0.60    10.39     2.22P    3.78R    0.58  
Halifax           6   10   -2       3.41    84.46     0.85    52.33    11.59   -24.41     0.14     2.43     0.45P   25.39R    7.68  
Luton             6    9   +3      -0.43    44.70     1.17    75.14    10.31    20.37     6.60    45.42    16.72P    0.19R    0.01  
Kidderminster     6    9   +0      -1.56    31.55    -3.69    76.80    10.59    20.60     9.31    51.52    21.05P    0.16R    0.01  
Alfreton_Town     6    9   -1       2.08    73.96     1.28    59.60    10.60    -8.81     0.30     5.96     1.14P    7.52R    1.39  
Welling           6    8   +1       1.30    66.88     3.50    55.44    11.68   -11.13     0.24     4.42     0.93P   16.78R    4.20  
Salisbury         6    7   -1       0.25    54.64     1.32    49.79    11.35   -20.02     0.04     1.35     0.29P   31.66R   10.56  
Dartford          6    6   -5      -1.80    29.74    -4.38    54.51    10.25   -14.67     0.08     2.07     0.40P   15.64R    3.43  
Wrexham           6    5   -4      -6.18     2.92    -8.63    68.54    10.32     9.50     2.00    22.36     7.82P    0.99R    0.12  
Tamworth          6    5   -5      -1.05    39.45    -1.80    49.61     9.90   -20.27     0.01     0.56     0.10P   29.46R    8.05  
Gateshead         6    4   -4      -2.96    19.13    -1.99    56.68    10.45    -7.38     0.10     3.37     0.73P   11.44R    2.46  
Woking            6    4   -4      -3.48    14.77    -2.62    50.18    10.42   -19.13     0.01     0.88     0.15P   28.24R    7.93  
Macclesfield      6    3   -3      -5.31     4.58    -3.23    56.59    10.46    -4.73     0.10     3.42     0.73P   11.61R    2.32  
Chester           6    3   -8      -1.80    28.09    -2.01    42.03    10.90   -33.62     0.00     0.20     0.04P   59.53R   30.15  
Hyde_United       6    2  -11      -3.08    15.04    -5.30    44.72    10.28   -32.30     0.00     0.21     0.02P   49.47R   20.09  
Aldershot         6   -3   +1     -13.78     0.00    -2.86    67.51    10.74    24.71     1.87    21.62     9.40P    1.60R    0.22  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10