Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 1 September 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 1 September 2013, Arsenal 1 0 Tottenham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool         3    9   +3       4.02    95.32     1.79    69.98     9.25    22.20    11.76    26.41    42.84    59.74    85.48     0.01R    0.00  
Chelsea           3    7   +3       1.38    77.35     0.67    72.38     9.22    29.20    17.86    37.07    54.97    70.31    90.61     0.01R    0.00  
Man_City          3    6   +5      -0.79    31.20     0.82    73.10     9.16    34.15    21.00    40.99    58.70    73.85    91.98     0.00R    0.00  
Arsenal           3    6   +1       0.40    53.22    -1.27    69.20     9.37    24.44    10.97    25.00    40.93    57.20    83.65     0.03R    0.00  
Stoke             3    6   +1       2.29    84.14     1.41    47.26     8.68    -7.15     0.03     0.16     0.48     1.28     6.78     8.78R    1.38  
Tottenham         3    6   +1       1.01    64.50    -0.25    63.87     9.44    15.73     3.96    10.80    20.66    33.68    65.65     0.19R    0.01  
Man_Utd           3    4   +2      -1.11    33.24     0.52    76.30     8.96    41.03    33.61    56.42    72.80    84.12    95.89     0.00R    0.00  
West_Ham          3    4   +1      -0.42    44.79     0.52    45.76     8.92    -7.91     0.02     0.12     0.43     1.10     5.50    12.75R    2.54  
Norwich           3    4   +0      -0.06    51.40    -0.00    43.02     8.96   -14.12     0.01     0.05     0.22     0.57     3.14    20.75R    5.01  
Southampton       3    4   +0       0.08    54.21     0.24    45.07     8.96   -10.74     0.02     0.12     0.34     0.94     4.84    14.38R    3.17  
Cardiff           3    4   -1       1.19    73.17     0.84    41.67     9.40   -16.71     0.01     0.05     0.20     0.55     2.92    26.81R    7.99  
Newcastle         3    4   -3       0.54    62.31    -1.84    45.10     9.18   -13.76     0.02     0.12     0.40     1.02     5.18    15.65R    3.55  
Aston_Villa       3    3   +0       0.79    65.92     3.07    46.15     9.18    -7.46     0.04     0.17     0.49     1.28     6.45    12.51R    2.80  
Crystal_Palace    3    3   +0       0.17    54.41     1.80    32.49     8.68   -30.51     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.22    65.89R   34.94  
Everton           3    3   +0      -2.04    18.67    -1.33    55.91     9.18     7.45     0.59     2.03     4.92    10.24    30.65     1.39R    0.18  
Swansea           3    3   -2       0.18    54.39    -0.16    47.29     9.02    -6.98     0.04     0.19     0.60     1.53     7.40     9.71R    1.85  
Fulham            3    3   -2      -0.52    41.68    -1.20    46.99     9.19    -8.01     0.04     0.19     0.64     1.63     7.62    10.75R    2.01  
Hull              3    3   -3       0.95    69.28     0.35    34.95     8.61   -25.17     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.42    54.75R   22.94  
Sunderland        3    1   -3      -3.12     9.59    -3.07    40.98     8.80   -14.34     0.01     0.03     0.09     0.26     1.83    26.95R    6.97  
West_Brom         3    1   -3      -3.00    10.34    -2.89    43.64     9.09   -11.33     0.01     0.08     0.27     0.67     3.79    18.69R    4.64  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 August 2013, Barnsley 2 1 Huddersfield; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Blackpool        5   13   +5       5.05    95.39     3.32    75.73    11.04    14.93     9.96    20.11    55.12    28.31P    0.28R    0.03  
QPR              5   13   +4       4.73    94.28     1.95    79.89    11.24    19.91    18.72    32.69    68.76    42.65P    0.10R    0.01  
Burnley          5   10   +4       2.40    78.75     2.77    70.21    10.90    10.05     4.11     9.62    35.63    15.45P    0.97R    0.09  
Nott'm_Forest    5   10   +4       3.33    86.13     4.30    71.45    10.78    12.17     4.61    10.79    39.96    17.53P    0.71R    0.05  
Leicester        5   10   +2       2.05    74.46     0.36    76.98    10.97    18.35    12.28    23.83    60.14    33.63P    0.27R    0.03  
Bournemouth      5    9   -6       4.31    91.81    -2.18    50.26    11.10   -31.10     0.08     0.24     2.18     0.54P   33.18R    9.66  
Watford          5    8   +5       0.13    52.20     3.32    76.90    11.24    24.96    12.67    24.45    60.58    34.37P    0.26R    0.03  
Wigan            5    8   +4      -1.60    29.91    -0.31    77.14    11.98    24.29    15.27    27.42    60.69    37.49P    0.43R    0.04  
Reading          5    8   +1      -0.15    48.50    -0.98    75.35    11.85    18.15    11.23    21.38    54.46    30.53P    0.57R    0.05  
Leeds_United     5    8   +1       1.62    71.04     1.66    63.12    10.86    -0.64     0.92     2.66    15.81     5.29P    4.57R    0.65  
Blackburn        5    7   +3      -0.94    38.53     1.36    66.23    10.96     7.53     1.96     5.00    24.15     9.45P    2.47R    0.30  
Huddersfield     5    7   +3       0.54    58.27     3.49    57.01    10.70    -6.64     0.24     0.80     6.14     1.79P   12.12R    2.19  
Brighton         5    7   +1      -0.93    38.29    -0.55    70.45    10.67    12.04     3.88     9.07    36.73    16.42P    0.84R    0.07  
Derby            5    7   +0       0.19    53.27     0.00    62.15    10.86    -1.51     0.78     2.31    13.74     4.65P    5.47R    0.80  
Middlesbrough    5    6   +0      -0.24    47.68     0.97    60.98    10.89    -1.69     0.63     1.77    12.00     3.90P    6.59R    1.08  
Ipswich          5    4   +0      -1.85    27.85     1.48    56.26    10.65    -5.68     0.18     0.56     5.23     1.53P   13.67R    2.70  
Charlton         4    4   -1      -1.97    25.33    -1.75    61.46    11.05    -1.03     0.79     2.15    13.05     4.54P    6.34R    1.05  
Doncaster        4    4   -1      -0.61    43.74     0.45    49.97    11.33   -18.63     0.06     0.23     2.30     0.61P   33.15R    9.94  
Birmingham       5    4   -2      -3.16    15.43    -2.45    61.95    10.92     0.75     0.76     2.17    13.68     4.79P    5.76R    0.88  
Barnsley         5    4   -7      -1.07    38.30    -4.03    47.47    10.41   -27.72     0.01     0.07     0.83     0.17P   41.43R   12.82  
Sheff_Wed        5    3   -2      -2.86    16.66    -0.59    53.36    10.66   -10.73     0.07     0.30     3.24     0.82P   20.51R    4.75  
Yeovil           5    3   -6      -1.39    32.81    -2.08    38.53    10.31   -40.13     0.00     0.01     0.10     0.02P   74.11R   44.15  
Millwall         5    2   -5      -4.52     5.55    -4.64    50.16    10.39   -16.24     0.04     0.12     1.49     0.37P   29.96R    7.50  
Bolton           5    2   -7      -4.12     8.56    -5.89    61.99    11.14    -1.41     0.74     2.25    13.98     5.16P    6.24R    1.13  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 August 2013, Brentford 0 0 Carlisle; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient    5   15  +11       6.34    98.27     8.25    76.67    11.04    19.03     4.90    14.58    59.32    23.74P    0.34R    0.01  
Wolverhampton    5   13   +8       3.11    85.55     3.15    92.29    11.30    44.77    41.60    66.59    94.18    75.82P    0.01R    0.00  
Peterborough     5   12   +7       2.47    76.80     2.60    90.64    12.00    45.16    36.01    60.99    91.20    70.38P    0.03R    0.00  
Brentford        5    9   +3       0.51    55.33     0.51    71.11    11.01    11.80     1.87     6.40    39.59    14.42P    1.22R    0.07  
Rotherham        5    9   +2       3.19    83.90     3.76    54.01    11.57   -17.95     0.09     0.35     4.85     1.01P   26.57R    5.56  
MK_Dons          5    9   +2       0.85    59.66     0.01    77.03    11.04    19.84     5.35    15.31    61.28    28.02P    0.31R    0.01  
Bradford         5    8   +5       2.13    76.48     6.63    52.48    11.33   -14.17     0.04     0.23     3.79     0.80P   30.04R    6.12  
Colchester       5    8   +1       1.29    66.99     1.20    56.25    10.78   -11.86     0.05     0.28     5.60     1.14P   18.29R    2.60  
Preston          5    7   +3       0.46    57.00     3.53    68.25    11.19    10.36     1.00     3.86    30.73     9.63P    2.73R    0.23  
Swindon          5    7   +3      -1.95    25.72    -0.16    77.39    11.00    24.50     5.12    15.99    63.02    30.24P    0.31R    0.01  
Crawley_Town     5    7   +1       1.26    67.81     3.16    62.40    11.27    -1.02     0.21     1.26    15.68     3.81P    7.87R    0.98  
Walsall          5    7   -1       0.12    52.38    -1.05    62.70    11.13    -2.49     0.35     1.41    15.48     4.03P    7.35R    0.85  
Oldham           5    6   +0      -0.10    49.21     1.37    54.39    10.80   -12.36     0.04     0.21     4.22     0.86P   23.07R    3.95  
Shrewsbury       5    6   -1       0.33    55.40     0.79    57.53    10.88    -8.50     0.08     0.43     6.91     1.55P   15.63R    2.28  
Stevenage        5    4   -2      -2.27    23.47    -1.13    54.62    10.88   -11.03     0.03     0.23     4.42     0.97P   22.59R    4.05  
Port_Vale        5    4   -4      -1.56    32.43    -1.81    48.58    11.58   -24.84     0.02     0.10     2.01     0.42P   43.77R   13.21  
Sheff_Utd        5    4   -4      -3.85    10.71    -5.49    68.18    11.13     7.91     1.05     3.75    30.42    10.74P    2.70R    0.26  
Tranmere         5    4   -7      -2.41    22.72    -6.21    56.68    10.83   -12.80     0.06     0.30     5.97     1.34P   17.40R    2.69  
Crewe            5    4   -7      -0.95    40.25    -3.75    47.97    10.87   -28.69     0.01     0.04     1.20     0.23P   45.75R   12.92  
Bristol_City     5    3   -2      -4.16     8.54    -2.35    67.61    12.53    11.01     1.49     5.11    31.29    11.70P    4.81R    0.67  
Gillingham       5    3   -5      -1.75    28.09    -1.57    48.77    11.37   -21.67     0.02     0.08     1.69     0.34P   42.37R   12.36  
Carlisle         5    2  -12      -2.86    17.25    -8.51    42.55    10.66   -40.84     0.00     0.02     0.36     0.06P   65.62R   28.04  
Notts_County     5    1   -5      -5.78     2.20    -4.81    58.20    11.07    -3.92     0.09     0.49     8.21     2.19P   14.03R    2.19  
Coventry         5   -2   +4     -10.20     0.00     1.86    63.06    11.58    17.76     0.52     1.98    18.59     6.56P    7.19R    0.94  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 August 2013, AFC_Wimbledon 2 0 Fleetwood_Town; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield          5   13   +7       5.55    97.11     6.14    84.81    10.59    30.63    38.11    69.40    90.71    75.81P    0.01R    0.01  
Oxford_Utd            5   11   +6       3.72    89.42     5.43    73.18    10.83    15.07     7.88    27.13    59.48    35.00P    0.41R    0.11  
Burton_Albion         5   11   +3       4.26    91.55     3.23    68.90    10.91     5.00     4.02    15.93    42.95    21.27P    1.18R    0.38  
AFC_Wimbledon         5   10   +2       4.00    90.87     3.35    58.45    10.55   -10.89     0.48     2.67    12.47     4.29P    8.58R    3.64  
Exeter                5   10   +2       1.75    71.79    -0.09    68.44    10.68     5.37     3.51    14.71    41.10    20.83P    1.16R    0.41  
Fleetwood_Town        5    9   +2       2.21    76.54     1.97    63.92    10.57    -0.06     1.45     7.28    25.89    11.17P    2.96R    1.12  
Southend              5    9   +2       1.78    72.07     1.38    74.13    10.77    15.46     8.92    30.20    62.52    38.77P    0.29R    0.08  
Newport_County        5    8   +2       2.79    84.13     4.82    49.37    10.67   -22.75     0.07     0.52     2.97     0.93P   31.53R   17.29  
Mansfield             5    8   +2       2.08    76.53     3.49    57.29    11.18    -8.93     0.52     2.84    12.24     4.69P   11.51R    5.31  
Bury                  5    7   +3      -1.04    37.07     1.14    72.85    11.71    18.05     8.81    28.43    58.15    37.15P    0.72R    0.27  
Bristol_Rovers        5    7   +0      -0.09    49.51    -0.30    59.29    10.72    -6.32     0.55     3.41    14.74     5.75P    7.43R    3.07  
Wycombe               5    7   +0      -0.12    49.12    -0.39    62.07    10.57    -1.63     0.84     5.17    20.93     8.66P    4.47R    1.71  
Morecambe             5    7   -1       0.44    56.75    -0.46    60.59    10.42    -4.75     0.65     3.65    16.80     6.35P    5.55R    2.22  
Scunthorpe            5    6   +1      -3.26    13.63    -2.74    70.82    11.50    14.00     6.80    22.51    50.96    31.43P    0.96R    0.34  
Plymouth              5    6   -1       0.06    51.80     0.19    58.72    10.27    -5.50     0.28     2.48    12.52     4.46P    7.41R    3.04  
Torquay               5    6   -1      -1.10    36.20    -1.43    60.86    10.50    -2.87     0.64     4.13    17.74     7.17P    5.26R    2.06  
Rochdale              5    5   +1      -1.48    33.02     1.62    66.64    11.03     9.15     2.62    12.25    36.34    18.30P    2.00R    0.76  
Portsmouth            5    5   -2      -3.87    10.88    -5.08    75.08    11.55    20.07    11.89    35.12    65.33    45.36P    0.46R    0.14  
Dag_&_Red             5    5   -3      -1.35    33.61    -2.19    54.53    10.50   -13.24     0.17     1.20     6.93     2.40P   15.42R    7.08  
York                  5    4   -3      -1.58    30.86    -1.27    51.41    10.11   -15.75     0.05     0.42     3.38     0.95P   22.95R   11.55  
Cheltenham            5    4   -6      -2.30    22.51    -5.07    60.03    10.68    -6.12     0.53     3.68    15.99     6.55P    6.49R    2.67  
Northampton           5    3   -3      -3.80     9.09    -2.96    56.85    10.62    -6.76     0.29     2.01    10.32     3.88P   10.85R    4.89  
Hartlepool            5    2   -5      -4.74     5.06    -4.97    60.68    11.02    -0.67     0.90     4.75    18.54     8.57P    6.26R    2.60  
Accrington_Stanley    5    1   -8      -4.56     5.14    -5.83    45.41    10.08   -26.55     0.01     0.10     1.00     0.25P   46.14R   29.26  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 August 2013, Barnet 3 2 Hyde_United; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd     6   14   +9       4.60    92.92     7.08    76.19    10.56    20.45     8.80    48.90    17.35P    0.14R    0.02  
Barnet            6   14   +8       1.79    70.74     1.56    87.74    10.94    37.75    43.21    84.67    56.72P    0.01R    0.00  
Nuneaton          6   14   +5       7.09    98.60     6.90    68.67    10.42     5.15     1.89    22.35     5.09P    1.07R    0.12  
Lincoln_City      6   13   +4       5.01    92.97     4.32    69.10    10.42     6.17     2.25    23.49     5.85P    0.94R    0.09  
Southport         6   12   +1       4.31    89.22     1.86    62.97    10.51    -5.97     0.71    10.03     2.12P    4.00R    0.59  
Forest_Green      6   11  +10       0.50    55.71     6.40    76.21    10.44    26.14     8.96    50.27    19.75P    0.14R    0.01  
Hereford          6   11   +3       0.25    52.69    -0.82    71.94    10.53    12.83     4.15    33.48    10.95P    0.46R    0.04  
Grimsby           6   10   +2      -0.35    45.52    -1.19    76.55    10.26    20.11     8.56    50.59    20.41P    0.12R    0.01  
Braintree_Town    6   10   +1       2.73    79.88     2.46    62.91    10.49    -2.12     0.57    10.24     2.29P    3.88R    0.52  
Halifax           6   10   -2       3.48    84.86     0.93    52.04    11.61   -24.74     0.18     2.37     0.51P   26.56R    8.25  
Luton             6    9   +3      -0.41    44.99     1.20    74.92    10.31    20.10     6.55    44.62    16.29P    0.18R    0.01  
Kidderminster     6    9   +0      -1.56    31.48    -3.67    76.62    10.49    20.31     9.09    51.15    20.69P    0.14R    0.02  
Alfreton_Town     6    9   -1       2.16    74.80     1.41    59.32    10.62    -9.28     0.27     5.63     0.98P    8.00R    1.52  
Welling           6    8   +1       1.30    66.92     3.52    55.53    11.81   -11.06     0.34     4.40     1.05P   16.88R    4.49  
Salisbury         6    7   -1       0.17    53.72     1.15    50.23    11.23   -19.24     0.06     1.44     0.30P   30.13R    9.56  
Dartford          6    6   -5      -1.83    29.24    -4.43    54.76    10.23   -14.32     0.07     2.15     0.41P   15.27R    3.29  
Wrexham           6    5   -4      -6.24     2.82    -8.73    68.81    10.41     9.89     2.16    23.47     8.06P    0.90R    0.10  
Tamworth          6    5   -5      -1.06    39.33    -1.82    49.77    10.01   -19.97     0.01     0.67     0.10P   29.07R    8.10  
Gateshead         6    4   -4      -2.95    19.04    -1.97    56.43    10.46    -7.68     0.11     3.22     0.68P   11.91R    2.44  
Woking            6    4   -4      -3.45    15.21    -2.58    49.86    10.48   -19.68     0.02     0.87     0.16P   29.48R    8.66  
Macclesfield      6    3   -3      -5.36     4.39    -3.29    56.89    10.46    -4.22     0.16     3.67     0.85P   10.98R    2.21  
Chester           6    3   -8      -1.81    28.24    -2.03    42.01    10.96   -33.69     0.01     0.28     0.06P   60.20R   30.43  
Hyde_United       6    2  -11      -3.13    14.93    -5.38    45.11    10.31   -31.63     0.00     0.24     0.02P   48.00R   19.33  
Aldershot         6   -3   +1     -13.81     0.00    -2.89    67.52    10.70    24.70     1.89    21.79     9.32P    1.55R    0.21  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10