Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 31 August 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 August 2013, Cardiff 0 0 Everton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Chelsea           3    7   +3       1.36    77.65     0.61    72.81     9.30    30.11    16.39    37.39    56.42    71.84    91.18     0.00R    0.00  
Man_City          3    6   +5      -0.83    30.30     0.72    73.33     9.15    34.73    19.08    40.35    59.29    74.67    92.50     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool         2    6   +2       2.32    86.38     0.68    67.71     9.52    20.44     7.28    18.76    33.43    49.96    78.77     0.05R    0.01  
Tottenham         2    6   +2       1.98    82.43     0.11    65.34     9.69    16.95     4.94    13.58    25.44    39.97    70.52     0.15R    0.01  
Stoke             3    6   +1       2.26    83.64     1.39    47.51     8.68    -7.10     0.04     0.16     0.47     1.37     7.00     8.25R    1.30  
Man_Utd           2    4   +3       0.22    56.79     1.46    79.02     9.14    45.26    43.49    66.28    80.63    89.52    97.52     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham          3    4   +1      -0.45    44.03     0.49    45.81     8.99    -8.16     0.03     0.13     0.44     1.09     5.90    12.40R    2.56  
Norwich           3    4   +0      -0.05    51.47    -0.00    42.79     9.05   -14.85     0.01     0.06     0.21     0.59     3.22    21.45R    5.22  
Southampton       3    4   +0       0.12    54.86     0.31    44.91     9.08   -11.31     0.02     0.11     0.38     1.07     5.08    15.06R    3.29  
Cardiff           3    4   -1       1.23    74.03     0.91    41.24     9.28   -17.88     0.01     0.04     0.16     0.42     2.55    28.02R    8.28  
Newcastle         3    4   -3       0.52    61.95    -1.83    45.00     9.09   -14.33     0.01     0.08     0.31     0.94     5.08    15.48R    3.52  
Arsenal           2    3   +0      -0.92    28.92    -1.85    67.84     9.62    24.16     8.02    20.26    35.21    51.49    79.20     0.04R    0.00  
Aston_Villa       3    3   +0       0.79    65.98     3.17    46.05     9.23    -7.91     0.03     0.18     0.50     1.26     6.42    12.61R    2.63  
Crystal_Palace    3    3   +0       0.19    54.53     1.86    32.49     8.82   -31.19     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.26    65.32R   34.68  
Everton           3    3   +0      -2.04    18.80    -1.33    56.34     9.24     7.94     0.55     2.14     5.40    11.23    32.82     1.18R    0.16  
Fulham            3    3   -2      -0.51    41.75    -1.18    47.13     9.11    -8.05     0.03     0.18     0.59     1.58     7.53    10.28R    2.01  
Hull              3    3   -3       0.96    69.50     0.44    34.85     8.58   -25.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.36    54.72R   22.84  
West_Brom         2    1   -1      -1.57    24.57    -0.78    46.75     9.40    -6.92     0.05     0.20     0.69     1.81     7.68    11.64R    2.66  
Sunderland        3    1   -3      -3.11     9.65    -3.06    41.10     8.84   -14.62     0.00     0.02     0.10     0.30     2.06    26.03R    6.65  
Swansea           2    0   -4      -1.50    17.56    -2.11    44.20     9.20   -11.45     0.01     0.07     0.31     0.82     4.34    17.30R    4.17  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 August 2013, Barnsley 2 1 Huddersfield; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Blackpool        5   13   +5       5.05    95.34     3.32    75.61    10.87    14.80     9.35    19.38    54.73    27.36P    0.26R    0.02  
QPR              5   13   +4       4.68    94.19     1.87    80.13    11.31    20.30    19.41    33.51    69.29    43.50P    0.10R    0.01  
Burnley          5   10   +4       2.39    78.79     2.74    70.28    11.00    10.19     4.25     9.58    36.10    15.57P    1.03R    0.10  
Nott'm_Forest    5   10   +4       3.34    86.29     4.33    71.44    10.74    12.15     4.69    10.71    39.83    17.14P    0.70R    0.08  
Leicester        5   10   +2       2.05    74.30     0.36    76.99    10.99    18.36    12.07    23.76    60.07    33.69P    0.22R    0.01  
Bournemouth      5    9   -6       4.35    92.04    -2.10    50.00    10.99   -31.56     0.07     0.22     1.97     0.50P   33.64R    9.67  
Watford          5    8   +5       0.11    51.74     3.30    76.89    11.18    24.90    12.60    24.46    60.63    34.34P    0.27R    0.02  
Wigan            5    8   +4      -1.62    29.52    -0.38    77.40    11.95    24.69    15.73    27.51    61.29    37.92P    0.37R    0.03  
Reading          5    8   +1      -0.10    48.79    -0.92    75.11    11.82    17.82    10.52    20.62    53.52    29.81P    0.69R    0.09  
Leeds_United     5    8   +1       1.61    71.19     1.64    63.23    10.94    -0.47     1.02     2.69    15.86     5.29P    4.52R    0.68  
Blackburn        5    7   +3      -0.95    38.21     1.31    66.53    10.99     7.99     2.02     5.34    24.66     9.85P    2.46R    0.29  
Huddersfield     5    7   +3       0.49    57.48     3.42    57.34    10.82    -6.23     0.24     0.80     6.68     1.88P   11.79R    2.27  
Brighton         5    7   +1      -0.93    38.37    -0.57    70.61    10.71    12.26     3.98     9.58    36.95    17.09P    0.80R    0.07  
Derby            5    7   +0       0.18    53.35     0.01    62.13    10.79    -1.51     0.76     2.15    13.30     4.40P    5.34R    0.74  
Middlesbrough    5    6   +0      -0.30    46.71     0.90    61.24    10.85    -1.23     0.63     1.79    12.19     3.86P    6.36R    0.95  
Ipswich          5    4   +0      -1.80    28.21     1.56    55.95    10.70    -6.20     0.19     0.59     5.14     1.51P   14.31R    2.81  
Charlton         4    4   -1      -1.94    25.66    -1.70    61.21    11.04    -1.40     0.68     2.07    12.44     4.36P    6.49R    1.05  
Doncaster        4    4   -1      -0.58    44.08     0.51    49.68    11.21   -18.96     0.07     0.22     2.00     0.51P   33.50R   10.12  
Birmingham       5    4   -2      -3.19    15.16    -2.48    62.02    10.93     0.83     0.80     2.27    13.73     4.94P    5.57R    0.82  
Barnsley         5    4   -7      -1.10    38.01    -4.07    47.72    10.43   -27.26     0.02     0.07     0.87     0.19P   40.17R   12.40  
Sheff_Wed        5    3   -2      -2.85    16.68    -0.57    53.32    10.67   -10.74     0.08     0.28     3.26     0.90P   20.48R    4.82  
Yeovil           5    3   -6      -1.38    32.95    -2.08    38.43    10.26   -40.44     0.00     0.01     0.11     0.02P   74.17R   44.23  
Millwall         5    2   -5      -4.47     5.67    -4.55    49.84    10.33   -16.81     0.02     0.10     1.28     0.32P   30.51R    7.69  
Bolton           5    2   -7      -4.10     8.69    -5.86    61.95    11.17    -1.46     0.81     2.30    14.09     5.06P    6.24R    1.04  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 August 2013, Brentford 0 0 Carlisle; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient    5   15  +11       6.35    98.30     8.26    76.61    11.17    19.02     5.12    14.87    59.33    24.10P    0.33R    0.00  
Wolverhampton    5   13   +8       3.10    85.64     3.11    92.35    11.40    44.92    41.69    66.72    94.16    75.91P    0.01R    0.00  
Peterborough     5   12   +7       2.47    76.82     2.59    90.63    11.94    45.20    36.12    61.04    91.29    70.37P    0.03R    0.00  
Brentford        5    9   +3       0.50    55.22     0.50    71.24    10.98    11.90     1.84     6.21    40.15    14.56P    1.25R    0.06  
Rotherham        5    9   +2       3.15    83.44     3.70    54.17    11.64   -17.73     0.08     0.40     5.33     1.10P   26.42R    5.50  
MK_Dons          5    9   +2       0.79    59.04    -0.09    77.24    11.02    20.10     5.27    15.71    62.21    28.43P    0.34R    0.01  
Bradford         5    8   +5       2.19    77.23     6.72    52.21    11.23   -14.60     0.05     0.21     3.43     0.67P   30.98R    6.44  
Colchester       5    8   +1       1.30    67.16     1.22    56.02    10.72   -12.31     0.05     0.28     5.41     1.13P   18.58R    2.60  
Preston          5    7   +3       0.49    57.57     3.59    68.10    11.16    10.21     0.99     3.80    30.18     9.33P    2.67R    0.20  
Swindon          5    7   +3      -1.93    26.06    -0.12    77.14    11.02    24.15     4.89    15.54    62.16    30.04P    0.30R    0.01  
Crawley_Town     5    7   +1       1.29    68.17     3.23    62.32    11.39    -1.17     0.30     1.35    15.69     3.85P    8.23R    0.99  
Walsall          5    7   -1       0.16    52.89    -0.99    62.70    11.14    -2.46     0.35     1.50    15.48     4.31P    7.30R    0.78  
Oldham           5    6   +0      -0.16    48.37     1.28    54.83    10.74   -11.59     0.05     0.26     4.50     0.96P   21.72R    3.69  
Shrewsbury       5    6   -1       0.31    55.07     0.75    57.62    10.79    -8.40     0.07     0.40     6.93     1.53P   15.22R    2.21  
Stevenage        5    4   -2      -2.28    23.56    -1.15    54.60    10.93   -11.03     0.06     0.22     4.45     1.00P   22.73R    4.15  
Port_Vale        5    4   -4      -1.59    32.19    -1.83    48.95    11.72   -24.18     0.03     0.12     2.27     0.49P   42.82R   12.96  
Sheff_Utd        5    4   -4      -3.85    10.76    -5.49    68.09    10.97     7.77     0.97     3.59    29.76    10.27P    2.53R    0.20  
Tranmere         5    4   -7      -2.46    22.20    -6.28    56.99    10.87   -12.33     0.06     0.37     6.41     1.48P   16.83R    2.53  
Crewe            5    4   -7      -0.93    40.27    -3.71    47.94    10.73   -28.72     0.01     0.03     1.14     0.19P   46.30R   12.92  
Bristol_City     5    3   -2      -4.16     8.39    -2.37    67.47    12.42    10.73     1.47     4.97    30.93    11.32P    4.65R    0.58  
Gillingham       5    3   -5      -1.74    27.94    -1.54    48.85    11.28   -21.64     0.01     0.10     1.91     0.42P   42.46R   12.20  
Carlisle         5    2  -12      -2.86    17.23    -8.51    42.48    10.61   -40.99     0.00     0.01     0.32     0.05P   66.13R   28.73  
Notts_County     5    1   -5      -5.77     2.39    -4.78    58.11    11.09    -4.08     0.10     0.49     8.43     2.28P   14.37R    2.24  
Coventry         5   -2   +4     -10.17     0.00     1.92    62.76    11.61    17.23     0.40     1.81    18.16     6.20P    7.77R    0.98  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 August 2013, AFC_Wimbledon 2 0 Fleetwood_Town; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield          5   13   +7       5.53    97.05     6.11    84.96    10.44    30.76    38.88    70.07    91.01    76.31P    0.02R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd            5   11   +6       3.77    89.73     5.50    73.03    10.79    14.87     7.61    26.85    58.96    34.78P    0.40R    0.11  
Burton_Albion         5   11   +3       4.30    91.84     3.27    68.60    10.92     4.53     3.66    15.28    42.01    20.88P    1.25R    0.41  
AFC_Wimbledon         5   10   +2       3.97    90.50     3.31    58.67    10.52   -10.56     0.42     2.72    12.86     4.46P    8.44R    3.55  
Exeter                5   10   +2       1.76    71.82    -0.09    68.42    10.61     5.39     3.36    14.52    41.03    20.82P    1.18R    0.39  
Fleetwood_Town        5    9   +2       2.19    76.17     1.94    63.95    10.71    -0.03     1.42     7.58    26.36    11.47P    3.07R    1.10  
Southend              5    9   +2       1.79    72.24     1.40    74.15    10.79    15.49     8.88    30.24    62.78    39.09P    0.33R    0.07  
Newport_County        5    8   +2       2.78    83.77     4.79    49.44    10.86   -22.67     0.08     0.51     3.26     0.88P   31.90R   17.66  
Mansfield             5    8   +2       2.07    76.50     3.46    57.69    11.13    -8.33     0.57     2.89    12.60     4.80P   10.80R    5.02  
Bury                  5    7   +3      -1.12    36.26     1.03    73.13    11.70    18.56     9.29    29.24    58.82    37.65P    0.69R    0.24  
Bristol_Rovers        5    7   +0      -0.07    50.00    -0.28    59.28    10.65    -6.37     0.50     3.23    14.72     5.54P    7.42R    3.09  
Wycombe               5    7   +0      -0.10    49.27    -0.36    62.03    10.56    -1.63     0.93     5.11    20.89     8.64P    4.33R    1.75  
Morecambe             5    7   -1       0.45    56.76    -0.43    60.65    10.54    -4.66     0.63     4.03    17.24     6.83P    5.75R    2.46  
Scunthorpe            5    6   +1      -3.20    14.03    -2.65    70.52    11.49    13.48     6.28    21.78    49.97    30.33P    1.02R    0.36  
Plymouth              5    6   -1       0.05    51.48     0.17    58.70    10.22    -5.54     0.35     2.34    12.49     4.39P    7.19R    2.95  
Torquay               5    6   -1      -1.12    35.88    -1.45    61.04    10.59    -2.56     0.75     4.62    18.35     7.81P    5.24R    2.09  
Rochdale              5    5   +1      -1.48    32.95     1.62    66.49    10.93     8.94     2.42    12.01    36.15    18.03P    2.08R    0.73  
Portsmouth            5    5   -2      -3.89    11.06    -5.09    75.01    11.68    19.96    12.19    35.32    65.24    45.25P    0.52R    0.16  
Dag_&_Red             5    5   -3      -1.34    33.49    -2.20    54.61    10.47   -13.13     0.17     1.17     6.89     2.31P   15.14R    7.00  
York                  5    4   -3      -1.59    30.56    -1.25    51.30    10.12   -15.93     0.06     0.51     3.38     1.08P   23.41R   11.82  
Cheltenham            5    4   -6      -2.25    23.12    -5.00    59.73    10.60    -6.56     0.50     3.38    15.13     6.09P    6.85R    2.79  
Northampton           5    3   -3      -3.84     8.88    -3.02    57.17    10.64    -6.29     0.34     2.24    11.09     4.27P   10.15R    4.38  
Hartlepool            5    2   -5      -4.71     5.14    -4.92    60.31    10.98    -1.17     0.72     4.25    17.85     8.06P    6.62R    2.68  
Accrington_Stanley    5    1   -8      -4.57     5.26    -5.86    45.34    10.13   -26.56     0.01     0.09     0.93     0.25P   46.21R   29.21  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 August 2013, Barnet 3 2 Hyde_United; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd     6   14   +9       4.58    92.75     7.04    76.34    10.60    20.70     9.24    49.27    17.80P    0.13R    0.01  
Barnet            6   14   +8       1.83    71.05     1.62    87.39    10.81    37.19    41.97    84.13    55.28P    0.01R    0.00  
Nuneaton          6   14   +5       7.10    98.57     6.92    68.66    10.39     5.16     1.89    21.97     4.91P    0.97R    0.11  
Lincoln_City      6   13   +4       4.98    92.81     4.26    69.33    10.44     6.54     2.42    24.08     6.23P    0.80R    0.08  
Southport         6   12   +1       4.33    89.39     1.87    62.87    10.51    -6.13     0.66     9.85     2.02P    3.96R    0.52  
Forest_Green      6   11  +10       0.48    55.44     6.40    76.51    10.39    26.54     9.17    51.26    20.17P    0.11R    0.01  
Hereford          6   11   +3       0.22    52.08    -0.86    72.07    10.49    13.04     4.15    33.76    10.94P    0.45R    0.04  
Grimsby           6   10   +2      -0.33    45.51    -1.15    76.43    10.19    19.93     8.41    49.98    19.81P    0.11R    0.01  
Braintree_Town    6   10   +1       2.78    80.11     2.52    62.55    10.45    -2.70     0.53     9.47     1.89P    4.06R    0.65  
Halifax           6   10   -2       3.46    84.70     0.91    52.09    11.74   -24.83     0.16     2.63     0.49P   26.87R    8.13  
Luton             6    9   +3      -0.42    44.84     1.18    75.17    10.43    20.42     6.95    45.50    17.45P    0.20R    0.01  
Kidderminster     6    9   +0      -1.56    31.30    -3.68    76.81    10.57    20.61     9.63    51.48    21.39P    0.17R    0.02  
Alfreton_Town     6    9   -1       2.06    73.94     1.25    59.64    10.64    -8.74     0.34     6.05     1.23P    7.52R    1.39  
Welling           6    8   +1       1.31    66.97     3.54    55.38    11.80   -11.25     0.27     4.36     0.99P   17.22R    4.74  
Salisbury         6    7   -1       0.20    54.06     1.21    49.97    11.17   -19.62     0.04     1.33     0.21P   30.66R    9.91  
Dartford          6    6   -5      -1.82    29.57    -4.40    54.74    10.24   -14.30     0.08     2.05     0.39P   15.17R    3.45  
Wrexham           6    5   -4      -6.20     2.98    -8.67    68.69    10.31     9.69     1.98    22.92     7.99P    0.87R    0.08  
Tamworth          6    5   -5      -1.07    39.08    -1.82    49.83     9.95   -19.90     0.02     0.63     0.10P   28.99R    7.77  
Gateshead         6    4   -4      -2.98    18.67    -2.02    56.63    10.51    -7.43     0.12     3.40     0.69P   11.73R    2.41  
Woking            6    4   -4      -3.48    14.77    -2.64    50.07    10.35   -19.32     0.03     0.79     0.14P   28.75R    7.95  
Macclesfield      6    3   -3      -5.33     4.60    -3.21    56.65    10.41    -4.65     0.13     3.26     0.73P   11.10R    2.35  
Chester           6    3   -8      -1.82    27.92    -2.04    41.98    10.91   -33.73     0.01     0.21     0.04P   59.85R   30.41  
Hyde_United       6    2  -11      -3.11    14.89    -5.37    44.93    10.21   -31.87     0.00     0.19     0.01P   48.73R   19.79  
Aldershot         6   -3   +1     -13.78     0.00    -2.86    67.46    10.64    24.65     1.82    21.42     9.10P    1.57R    0.18  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10