Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 30 August 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 26 August 2013, Man_Utd 0 0 Chelsea; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Chelsea           3    7   +3       1.38    77.32     0.63    73.44     9.30    31.40    16.56    37.66    56.71    71.98    90.92     0.00R    0.00  
Liverpool         2    6   +2       2.26    85.64     0.57    68.18     9.67    21.28     7.41    18.95    33.76    49.86    77.85     0.05R    0.00  
Tottenham         2    6   +2       1.93    81.93    -0.02    65.60     9.87    17.45     4.81    13.16    24.75    39.03    68.66     0.13R    0.01  
Man_Utd           2    4   +3       0.20    56.60     1.38    79.99     9.19    47.64    44.77    68.13    81.78    90.32    97.76     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham          2    4   +2       0.95    71.58     1.57    48.16     9.41    -6.03     0.06     0.27     0.86     2.13     9.18     7.99R    1.24  
Southampton       2    4   +1       1.37    78.78     1.15    46.84     9.62    -9.97     0.07     0.30     0.80     1.81     7.52    10.86R    1.87  
Man_City          2    3   +3      -1.47    19.00     0.23    73.20     9.46    35.52    17.43    37.53    56.29    71.65    90.51     0.00R    0.00  
Arsenal           2    3   +0      -0.91    29.29    -1.84    68.16     9.83    24.84     7.98    20.21    34.85    50.65    77.65     0.06R    0.00  
Aston_Villa       3    3   +0       0.78    65.47     3.15    46.01     9.34    -8.31     0.02     0.11     0.41     1.21     5.73    11.97R    2.10  
Stoke             2    3   +0       0.40    56.63     0.17    44.91     8.95    -9.81     0.01     0.06     0.24     0.72     4.08    12.93R    1.98  
Cardiff           2    3   -1       1.34    75.82     0.70    40.86     9.81   -19.82     0.01     0.04     0.18     0.53     2.60    28.34R    7.57  
Fulham            2    3   -1       0.71    63.04    -0.33    49.28     9.55    -6.23     0.08     0.42     1.21     2.75    10.85     6.72R    0.98  
Hull              2    3   -1       1.33    76.08     0.73    35.22     8.94   -26.28     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.07     0.42    50.89R   17.05  
Everton           2    2   +0      -1.44    22.82    -1.01    57.41     9.60     8.93     0.69     2.69     6.61    13.09    35.22     1.08R    0.11  
Norwich           2    1   -1      -1.53    25.68    -0.72    40.69     9.33   -17.25     0.01     0.03     0.10     0.32     2.06    27.53R    6.46  
Sunderland        2    1   -1      -1.64    24.15    -0.90    44.17     9.27   -10.15     0.02     0.10     0.32     0.80     4.06    15.59R    2.95  
West_Brom         2    1   -1      -1.55    25.43    -0.76    46.97     9.56    -6.90     0.03     0.21     0.65     1.71     7.62    10.60R    1.84  
Newcastle         2    1   -4      -0.91    38.02    -2.50    42.65     9.56   -17.09     0.01     0.06     0.22     0.62     3.23    21.67R    4.82  
Crystal_Palace    2    0   -2      -1.53    16.59    -0.17    28.53     8.93   -37.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07    77.18R   47.92  
Swansea           2    0   -4      -1.50    17.70    -2.04    44.19     9.37   -11.69     0.01     0.07     0.24     0.76     4.01    16.40R    3.10  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 25 August 2013, Watford 1 1 Nott'm_Forest; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Nott'm_Forest    4   10   +5       4.34    94.79     4.75    73.01    11.04    13.50     6.09    13.44    44.51    20.44P    0.54R    0.04  
Blackpool        4   10   +4       3.58    91.14     2.54    73.76    11.33    13.53     7.19    15.32    47.14    22.76P    0.54R    0.07  
Leicester        4   10   +3       3.49    90.53     1.47    79.43    11.17    21.14    16.56    30.23    67.06    40.11P    0.13R    0.01  
QPR              4   10   +3       3.26    89.01     1.17    78.19    11.59    18.99    14.80    27.14    62.21    36.83P    0.21R    0.02  
Watford          4    8   +6       1.35    69.03     4.02    78.86    11.52    27.19    16.37    29.71    65.77    39.61P    0.21R    0.02  
Leeds_United     4    8   +2       2.78    85.02     2.39    65.24    11.21     1.36     1.54     4.17    20.30     7.40P    3.07R    0.43  
Huddersfield     4    7   +4       1.75    75.06     4.25    59.17    11.13    -4.58     0.48     1.33     9.03     2.74P    8.81R    1.53  
Derby            4    7   +3       1.39    70.03     2.76    66.11    11.04     5.41     1.84     4.61    22.58     8.45P    2.35R    0.28  
Burnley          4    7   +1       1.01    65.42     0.13    65.84    11.19     2.97     1.79     4.57    22.28     8.42P    2.68R    0.30  
Brighton         4    6   +1      -0.11    47.50     0.07    72.04    11.05    13.80     5.31    11.88    41.61    19.84P    0.69R    0.08  
Bournemouth      4    6   -7       2.56    83.08    -3.20    46.76    11.29   -36.09     0.05     0.14     1.20     0.27P   44.06R   15.53  
Wigan            4    5   +3      -2.84    15.52    -0.77    75.49    12.34    23.31    12.10    22.35    54.16    32.24P    0.60R    0.08  
Reading          4    5   +0      -1.18    34.41    -1.05    74.79    12.20    19.14    10.31    19.97    51.68    29.28P    0.78R    0.07  
Middlesbrough    4    5   +0       0.31    56.82     1.25    62.28    11.03    -0.39     0.82     2.21    13.70     4.50P    5.24R    0.75  
Blackburn        4    4   +0      -2.04    23.68    -0.87    62.57    11.25     1.45     0.94     2.61    14.97     5.31P    5.10R    0.74  
Doncaster        3    4   +0       0.85    67.75     1.63    53.14    11.96   -15.32     0.22     0.61     4.50     1.31P   23.52R    6.25  
Ipswich          4    3   +0      -1.73    25.48     1.16    55.89    11.00    -7.05     0.18     0.62     5.25     1.49P   14.30R    2.82  
Birmingham       4    3   -2      -2.52    17.39    -2.05    63.63    11.30     2.68     1.19     3.16    17.28     6.46P    4.43R    0.62  
Yeovil           4    3   -5      -0.59    43.00    -1.98    39.23    10.81   -41.44     0.00     0.02     0.22     0.04P   70.01R   38.43  
Sheff_Wed        4    2   -2      -2.78    15.10    -0.97    53.11    10.93   -11.90     0.11     0.33     3.11     0.87P   20.49R    4.57  
Bolton           4    2   -4      -3.19    12.19    -3.58    65.13    11.34     4.42     1.61     4.14    20.85     8.21P    3.39R    0.52  
Charlton         3    1   -2      -3.66     7.16    -2.82    58.68    11.24    -3.90     0.46     1.31     8.72     2.99P    9.74R    1.59  
Millwall         4    1   -5      -4.58     3.75    -5.22    49.40    10.58   -18.17     0.02     0.09     1.33     0.32P   31.36R    7.87  
Barnsley         4    1   -8      -2.72    15.97    -5.05    45.24    10.70   -30.04     0.01     0.03     0.54     0.10P   47.74R   17.40  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 25 August 2013, Coventry 4 4 Preston; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient    4   12  +10       5.02    96.54     7.70    74.81    11.45    17.68     3.19    11.15    52.60    20.22P    0.68R    0.02  
Peterborough     4   12   +9       4.13    93.46     4.97    96.87    12.16    58.21    55.72    77.51    96.14    83.30P    0.01R    0.00  
Wolverhampton    4   10   +6       2.23    80.54     2.27    90.15    11.83    42.37    27.97    58.25    90.78    69.32P    0.02R    0.00  
Brentford        4    8   +3       1.46    69.65     1.42    73.82    11.46    15.45     2.54     9.64    49.00    19.38P    0.91R    0.05  
Colchester       4    8   +2       2.38    81.03     1.79    57.70    10.94   -11.42     0.07     0.42     7.31     1.46P   15.32R    1.82  
Bradford         4    7   +5       2.33    81.61     6.49    52.33    11.52   -15.99     0.03     0.20     3.61     0.75P   31.09R    6.43  
Walsall          4    7   +2       1.33    69.17     1.73    66.66    11.53     4.49     0.72     3.08    25.87     7.75P    4.15R    0.41  
Oldham           4    6   +1       1.28    67.86     2.57    57.45    11.30    -9.34     0.08     0.45     7.60     1.51P   16.56R    2.55  
Rotherham        4    6   +1       1.29    67.32     2.40    50.10    12.05   -24.63     0.03     0.15     2.98     0.62P   39.59R   10.72  
MK_Dons          4    6   +1      -0.75    38.16    -0.96    74.87    11.48    18.30     3.06    11.32    52.84    22.61P    0.76R    0.06  
Shrewsbury       4    5   -1       0.40    58.17     0.35    57.20    11.20   -10.39     0.07     0.43     7.04     1.60P   17.02R    2.56  
Preston          4    4   +0      -1.05    37.69     0.76    64.48    11.37     3.94     0.36     1.85    20.27     5.96P    5.51R    0.54  
Crawley_Town     4    4   -1      -0.83    40.96     0.31    56.88    11.52   -10.35     0.08     0.44     7.25     1.65P   18.44R    3.12  
Crewe            4    4   -2      -0.67    42.84    -0.58    51.84    11.23   -19.75     0.01     0.13     3.05     0.54P   32.22R    6.81  
Port_Vale        4    4   -2      -0.90    39.99    -1.03    50.54    11.97   -22.53     0.03     0.19     3.07     0.70P   37.74R    9.87  
Swindon          4    4   -2      -2.49    18.22    -3.40    73.57    11.30    16.42     2.04     8.65    48.91    20.18P    0.97R    0.07  
Sheff_Utd        4    4   -3      -2.56    18.51    -4.62    70.95    11.53    11.28     1.62     6.19    39.34    14.80P    1.74R    0.13  
Stevenage        4    3   -2      -1.74    25.89    -0.86    55.78    11.17   -10.30     0.05     0.31     5.53     1.19P   20.32R    3.27  
Bristol_City     4    2   -2      -3.51     9.96    -1.92    68.91    12.89    12.76     1.69     6.21    35.35    13.71P    4.30R    0.61  
Gillingham       4    2   -5      -1.74    26.35    -2.06    48.46    11.80   -23.96     0.01     0.10     2.00     0.39P   44.09R   12.94  
Notts_County     4    1   -4      -3.99     6.83    -3.08    61.82    11.48     0.41     0.21     1.17    14.45     4.29P    9.20R    1.06  
Tranmere         4    1   -8      -3.89     7.75    -6.92    55.02    11.27   -14.46     0.04     0.27     5.02     1.24P   22.67R    3.92  
Carlisle         4    1  -12      -2.98    14.86    -9.24    41.23    10.93   -46.07     0.00     0.01     0.30     0.06P   69.72R   32.18  
Coventry         4   -3   +4      -9.77     0.00     1.91    63.43    11.71    17.88     0.35     1.88    19.70     6.80P    6.96R    0.85  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 24 August 2013, AFC_Wimbledon 3 2 Scunthorpe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Oxford_Utd            4   10   +6       4.42    95.38     5.94    74.75    11.03    17.04     9.81    30.94    63.67    38.97P    0.26R    0.08  
Chesterfield          4   10   +5       3.84    92.59     4.03    81.22    10.99    25.71    24.13    54.35    82.50    62.44P    0.05R    0.01  
Fleetwood_Town        4    9   +4       3.30    87.95     3.59    66.92    10.98     4.42     2.68    11.47    35.33    16.68P    1.61R    0.56  
Southend              4    9   +3       2.93    85.63     2.11    76.30    10.95    17.67    12.10    35.84    68.53    44.82P    0.17R    0.05  
Burton_Albion         4    8   +2       2.73    84.08     2.36    66.73    11.27     3.04     2.85    11.80    34.89    16.51P    2.12R    0.77  
Newport_County        4    7   +2       2.58    84.20     3.79    47.25    11.11   -27.45     0.08     0.36     2.41     0.67P   38.75R   23.42  
Exeter                4    7   +1       0.58    59.01    -0.45    67.30    10.93     5.12     2.95    12.36    36.41    17.99P    1.43R    0.48  
AFC_Wimbledon         4    7   +0       2.65    84.69     1.82    55.81    10.64   -14.75     0.18     1.46     8.08     2.61P   12.77R    5.95  
Plymouth              4    6   +0       1.16    67.16     0.82    60.00    10.50    -4.49     0.51     3.13    14.89     5.46P    5.75R    2.21  
Scunthorpe            4    5   +1      -2.16    21.54    -1.57    73.32    11.78    17.46     9.59    28.62    58.17    37.53P    0.63R    0.19  
Portsmouth            4    5   +0      -2.52    18.36    -3.17    79.39    11.91    26.92    21.77    48.43    76.34    57.87P    0.17R    0.06  
Dag_&_Red             4    5   +0      -0.44    44.35     0.12    57.76    10.87    -7.37     0.39     2.36    11.80     4.27P    9.12R    3.98  
Torquay               4    5   -1      -0.63    41.96    -1.26    61.96    10.79    -1.88     0.95     5.07    20.39     8.47P    4.36R    1.64  
Mansfield             4    5   -1       1.04    68.18     1.43    53.50    11.30   -15.36     0.19     1.26     6.62     2.21P   19.12R    9.78  
Rochdale              4    4   +1      -1.48    31.29     1.04    66.11    11.30     7.72     2.56    10.97    33.70    16.60P    2.28R    0.90  
Bury                  4    4   +0      -1.98    24.84    -0.76    69.41    11.88    12.03     5.28    18.43    45.21    25.94P    1.48R    0.52  
Bristol_Rovers        4    4   -1      -1.39    32.27    -0.81    57.42    11.00    -7.93     0.40     2.52    11.47     4.43P   10.10R    4.37  
Wycombe               4    4   -1      -1.69    27.83    -1.29    59.80    10.72    -3.52     0.55     3.35    15.31     5.94P    6.25R    2.48  
Morecambe             4    4   -2      -0.83    39.87    -0.92    59.00    10.81    -5.67     0.47     2.92    13.88     5.19P    7.56R    3.18  
York                  4    4   -2      -0.76    40.85    -1.03    52.32    10.46   -15.31     0.09     0.73     4.39     1.43P   19.65R    9.64  
Cheltenham            4    4   -3      -1.61    28.58    -3.19    62.26    10.92    -1.80     1.02     5.51    21.21     9.16P    4.29R    1.71  
Northampton           4    3   -2      -2.77    13.96    -2.51    58.65    11.04    -5.31     0.49     3.09    13.87     5.54P    8.18R    3.46  
Hartlepool            4    1   -5      -4.54     3.98    -5.16    60.87    11.43    -1.05     0.93     4.85    19.21     8.80P    6.41R    2.68  
Accrington_Stanley    4    1   -7      -3.25    11.07    -4.94    47.22    10.56   -25.22     0.02     0.18     1.72     0.47P   37.48R   21.88  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 26 August 2013, Aldershot 2 1 Woking; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barnet            5   11   +7       1.18    64.84     2.22    87.10    10.94    38.62    39.44    83.29    53.76P    0.01R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd     5   11   +6       3.82    90.94     5.36    74.13    10.64    16.94     6.15    41.09    13.06P    0.27R    0.02  
Nuneaton          5   11   +4       5.02    95.74     5.30    65.19    10.44     1.43     0.93    13.85     2.88P    2.11R    0.21  
Grimsby           5   10   +3       1.48    68.25     0.47    79.73    10.32    24.06    13.70    62.58    26.87P    0.03R    0.00  
Lincoln_City      5   10   +3       3.38    86.52     3.33    66.74    10.58     4.02     1.42    17.61     4.28P    1.74R    0.18  
Halifax           5   10   +0       4.31    92.11     2.04    55.63    11.83   -18.93     0.30     4.43     0.94P   17.23R    3.74  
Kidderminster     5    9   +2      -0.15    46.52    -1.81    79.72    10.64    25.22    14.69    62.36    27.94P    0.07R    0.00  
Alfreton_Town     5    9   +1       2.69    80.87     2.00    61.37    10.77    -6.29     0.45     8.36     1.59P    5.55R    0.76  
Southport         5    9   +0       2.55    78.95     0.71    60.21    10.53    -9.16     0.28     6.59     1.17P    6.48R    0.85  
Forest_Green      5    8   +8      -0.40    45.03     5.53    74.11    10.61    23.53     6.12    42.24    14.94P    0.28R    0.02  
Welling           5    8   +2       2.11    76.75     3.64    55.89    11.78   -11.95     0.32     4.61     1.02P   15.86R    3.11  
Hereford          5    8   +2      -0.76    40.13    -0.85    70.87    10.60    12.86     3.44    30.23     9.36P    0.58R    0.03  
Braintree_Town    5    7   +0       0.97    64.08     1.29    60.10    10.60    -5.31     0.30     6.53     1.24P    6.64R    0.96  
Luton             5    6   +1      -2.26    22.40    -1.09    71.16    10.47    15.11     3.27    30.58    10.03P    0.61R    0.04  
Dartford          5    6   -4      -0.36    45.44    -3.24    57.51    10.38   -11.23     0.15     3.75     0.73P    9.92R    1.46  
Wrexham           5    5   -2      -4.13     8.36    -5.65    73.64    10.42    17.47     5.42    39.58    14.78P    0.24R    0.01  
Tamworth          5    5   -2      -0.50    45.59    -0.07    52.17    10.12   -15.65     0.03     1.17     0.18P   21.10R    4.03  
Woking            5    4   -3      -2.14    24.69    -1.63    52.43    10.58   -16.91     0.04     1.62     0.26P   21.67R    4.17  
Salisbury         5    4   -3      -0.86    40.89     0.06    47.24    11.32   -23.44     0.03     0.85     0.15P   39.98R   12.04  
Macclesfield      5    3   -2      -3.82     8.92    -2.02    59.81    10.61    -1.04     0.25     6.33     1.46P    6.91R    1.03  
Hyde_United       5    2  -10      -2.73    17.20    -6.27    45.30    10.24   -33.04     0.00     0.20     0.03P   47.10R   14.34  
Gateshead         5    1   -5      -4.59     5.03    -2.97    54.03    10.52   -10.10     0.07     2.06     0.39P   16.89R    3.13  
Chester           5    0  -10      -3.92     3.86    -4.53    36.00    10.80   -44.50     0.00     0.06     0.01P   77.82R   49.78  
Aldershot         5   -3   +2     -12.34     0.00    -1.82    70.23    10.91    28.29     3.20    30.04    12.93P    0.92R    0.09  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10