Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 27 August 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 26 August 2013, Man_Utd 0 0 Chelsea; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Chelsea           3    7   +3       1.35    76.71     0.58    73.36     9.40    31.23    16.92    37.79    56.20    71.74    90.46     0.01R    0.00  
Liverpool         2    6   +2       2.24    85.50     0.55    68.38     9.62    21.66     7.79    19.60    34.39    50.33    78.19     0.04R    0.00  
Tottenham         2    6   +2       1.92    81.81    -0.04    65.89     9.79    17.89     5.02    13.76    25.64    40.05    69.56     0.10R    0.01  
Man_Utd           2    4   +3       0.22    57.06     1.42    79.60     9.20    46.78    43.67    66.53    80.57    89.16    97.45     0.00R    0.00  
West_Ham          2    4   +2       1.00    72.58     1.62    47.95     9.33    -6.36     0.05     0.24     0.79     1.95     8.43     8.02R    1.18  
Southampton       2    4   +1       1.35    78.38     1.13    46.91     9.51    -9.91     0.04     0.22     0.68     1.72     7.31    10.41R    1.65  
Man_City          2    3   +3      -1.43    19.54     0.28    72.97     9.48    35.20    17.30    37.20    55.59    70.89    89.98     0.00R    0.00  
Arsenal           2    3   +0      -0.93    29.03    -1.87    68.43     9.74    25.32     8.27    20.66    35.64    51.40    78.38     0.03R    0.00  
Aston_Villa       3    3   +0       0.79    65.76     3.18    45.98     9.36    -8.33     0.03     0.16     0.45     1.15     5.69    11.94R    2.01  
Stoke             2    3   +0       0.40    56.68     0.17    44.98     9.01    -9.69     0.02     0.07     0.29     0.80     4.22    12.94R    1.89  
Cardiff           2    3   -1       1.31    75.11     0.67    40.82     9.84   -19.91     0.02     0.05     0.15     0.52     2.55    28.51R    7.56  
Fulham            2    3   -1       0.71    62.97    -0.31    49.37     9.70    -6.09     0.11     0.50     1.32     2.94    11.23     6.91R    1.05  
Hull              2    3   -1       1.35    76.35     0.77    34.91     8.97   -26.82     0.00     0.01     0.01     0.07     0.41    52.02R   18.14  
Everton           2    2   +0      -1.46    22.59    -1.03    57.61     9.52     9.23     0.69     2.76     6.73    13.05    35.57     0.95R    0.07  
Norwich           2    1   -1      -1.53    25.55    -0.73    40.65     9.43   -17.27     0.01     0.04     0.13     0.35     2.02    27.60R    6.43  
Sunderland        2    1   -1      -1.64    24.19    -0.89    43.92     9.20   -10.50     0.02     0.07     0.26     0.69     3.58    16.29R    3.00  
West_Brom         2    1   -1      -1.53    25.62    -0.73    46.76     9.63    -7.16     0.03     0.20     0.63     1.67     7.32    10.96R    1.97  
Newcastle         2    1   -4      -0.95    37.02    -2.57    42.96     9.46   -16.53     0.01     0.06     0.22     0.63     3.30    20.35R    4.34  
Crystal_Palace    2    0   -2      -1.52    16.67    -0.14    28.52     8.88   -37.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.09    77.17R   47.68  
Swansea           2    0   -4      -1.51    17.67    -2.05    44.42     9.41   -11.30     0.01     0.08     0.30     0.89     4.25    15.75R    3.01  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 25 August 2013, Watford 1 1 Nott'm_Forest; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Nott'm_Forest    4   10   +5       4.32    94.70     4.75    72.82    11.07    13.18     5.83    12.91    43.97    19.91P    0.63R    0.07  
Blackpool        4   10   +4       3.57    90.91     2.53    73.61    11.36    13.24     7.12    15.14    46.75    22.55P    0.54R    0.05  
Leicester        4   10   +3       3.42    90.00     1.38    79.67    11.26    21.53    17.06    30.78    67.57    40.75P    0.12R    0.01  
QPR              4   10   +3       3.29    89.01     1.21    78.22    11.71    19.07    14.64    27.18    62.00    36.63P    0.22R    0.02  
Watford          4    8   +6       1.33    68.36     3.95    79.19    11.56    27.74    17.05    30.64    66.66    40.64P    0.17R    0.01  
Leeds_United     4    8   +2       2.78    85.25     2.40    65.38    11.13     1.61     1.61     4.07    20.80     7.30P    2.94R    0.35  
Huddersfield     4    7   +4       1.76    75.23     4.24    59.12    11.12    -4.61     0.43     1.30     9.04     2.69P    8.80R    1.42  
Derby            4    7   +3       1.41    70.47     2.77    66.02    11.21     5.25     1.73     4.63    22.63     8.52P    2.64R    0.30  
Burnley          4    7   +1       0.98    65.07     0.09    65.79    11.14     2.88     1.77     4.38    21.80     8.15P    2.59R    0.26  
Brighton         4    6   +1      -0.11    47.84     0.07    72.12    10.98    13.97     5.15    11.76    41.88    19.75P    0.68R    0.08  
Bournemouth      4    6   -7       2.58    83.52    -3.15    46.85    11.31   -36.07     0.02     0.10     1.22     0.26P   43.62R   15.25  
Wigan            4    5   +3      -2.91    14.69    -0.86    75.95    12.13    24.16    12.43    23.00    55.61    33.19P    0.49R    0.06  
Reading          4    5   +0      -1.13    35.41    -0.98    74.60    12.24    18.87     9.85    19.26    51.16    28.37P    0.78R    0.11  
Middlesbrough    4    5   +0       0.35    57.56     1.29    62.17    11.03    -0.55     0.69     2.13    13.61     4.42P    5.41R    0.80  
Blackburn        4    4   +0      -2.06    23.72    -0.91    62.85    11.15     1.90     0.96     2.70    15.22     5.55P    4.61R    0.68  
Doncaster        3    4   +0       0.87    68.10     1.66    53.15    11.81   -15.45     0.18     0.55     4.28     1.24P   22.82R    5.85  
Ipswich          4    3   +0      -1.74    25.54     1.14    56.07    11.04    -6.79     0.22     0.65     5.40     1.58P   13.91R    2.78  
Birmingham       4    3   -2      -2.46    17.98    -1.97    63.18    11.10     1.99     0.97     2.73    15.79     5.72P    4.53R    0.59  
Yeovil           4    3   -5      -0.59    42.88    -1.96    39.10    10.78   -41.75     0.00     0.02     0.18     0.04P   70.29R   38.51  
Sheff_Wed        4    2   -2      -2.81    14.63    -1.01    53.14    10.81   -11.89     0.11     0.32     2.97     0.83P   20.14R    4.63  
Bolton           4    2   -4      -3.20    12.60    -3.58    65.13    11.46     4.45     1.67     4.25    20.84     8.45P    3.50R    0.51  
Charlton         3    1   -2      -3.65     7.23    -2.81    58.68    11.31    -3.88     0.45     1.36     8.74     3.02P    9.61R    1.72  
Millwall         4    1   -5      -4.59     3.81    -5.22    49.41    10.66   -18.21     0.03     0.11     1.32     0.33P   31.28R    8.12  
Barnsley         4    1   -8      -2.69    16.12    -5.00    44.89    10.70   -30.62     0.01     0.04     0.57     0.13P   49.67R   17.82  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 25 August 2013, Coventry 4 4 Preston; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient    4   12  +10       5.02    96.61     7.68    74.83    11.49    17.73     3.10    11.27    52.54    20.20P    0.76R    0.03  
Peterborough     4   12   +9       4.13    93.60     4.98    96.87    12.16    58.21    56.68    77.86    96.03    83.60P    0.01R    0.00  
Wolverhampton    4   10   +6       2.26    80.85     2.33    89.60    11.84    41.42    26.78    56.69    89.90    67.56P    0.02R    0.00  
Brentford        4    8   +3       1.46    69.96     1.42    74.00    11.37    15.75     2.66     9.70    49.37    19.55P    0.85R    0.04  
Colchester       4    8   +2       2.36    80.92     1.77    57.93    11.05   -11.01     0.11     0.52     7.57     1.65P   14.92R    1.81  
Bradford         4    7   +5       2.35    81.60     6.52    52.08    11.58   -16.34     0.04     0.22     3.63     0.73P   31.57R    6.76  
Walsall          4    7   +2       1.28    68.66     1.67    67.20    11.53     5.40     0.81     3.49    27.27     8.40P    3.80R    0.32  
Oldham           4    6   +1       1.27    67.84     2.56    57.63    11.19    -9.06     0.08     0.51     7.50     1.66P   15.98R    2.17  
Rotherham        4    6   +1       1.28    67.31     2.41    50.19    11.86   -24.36     0.03     0.15     2.96     0.62P   38.92R   10.15  
MK_Dons          4    6   +1      -0.76    37.69    -0.98    74.93    11.43    18.43     3.05    11.25    53.03    22.63P    0.74R    0.06  
Shrewsbury       4    5   -1       0.40    58.00     0.32    57.24    11.16   -10.35     0.07     0.42     6.68     1.44P   16.78R    2.55  
Preston          4    4   +0      -1.01    38.38     0.81    64.27    11.48     3.59     0.41     1.91    19.86     5.73P    6.05R    0.60  
Crawley_Town     4    4   -1      -0.85    40.71     0.25    57.34    11.61    -9.67     0.11     0.56     8.14     1.83P   17.51R    2.91  
Crewe            4    4   -2      -0.68    42.90    -0.56    51.61    11.24   -20.23     0.01     0.13     2.74     0.52P   33.10R    7.32  
Port_Vale        4    4   -2      -0.90    39.87    -1.04    50.52    12.11   -22.56     0.03     0.20     3.31     0.78P   37.97R   10.13  
Swindon          4    4   -2      -2.49    18.21    -3.40    73.44    11.20    16.21     2.04     8.68    48.06    19.96P    0.90R    0.06  
Sheff_Utd        4    4   -3      -2.55    18.47    -4.59    70.83    11.49    11.12     1.48     6.07    38.58    15.02P    1.77R    0.13  
Stevenage        4    3   -2      -1.70    26.65    -0.79    55.33    11.15   -11.07     0.05     0.25     5.24     1.15P   21.04R    3.34  
Bristol_City     4    2   -2      -3.49     9.59    -1.89    68.73    12.97    12.46     1.67     6.18    34.53    13.45P    4.48R    0.51  
Gillingham       4    2   -5      -1.75    26.28    -2.08    48.18    11.82   -24.38     0.02     0.12     2.04     0.45P   45.25R   13.38  
Notts_County     4    1   -4      -3.99     6.91    -3.09    61.73    11.56     0.30     0.21     1.31    14.53     4.37P    9.24R    1.18  
Tranmere         4    1   -8      -3.86     7.78    -6.86    55.10    11.33   -14.37     0.04     0.31     5.19     1.21P   22.32R    4.03  
Carlisle         4    1  -12      -3.00    14.63    -9.28    41.31    10.94   -45.89     0.00     0.01     0.31     0.04P   69.37R   31.70  
Coventry         4   -3   +4      -9.79     0.00     1.85    63.91    11.83    18.66     0.53     2.19    20.99     7.45P    6.66R    0.83  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 24 August 2013, AFC_Wimbledon 3 2 Scunthorpe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Oxford_Utd            4   10   +6       4.43    95.42     5.94    74.63    11.03    16.75     9.74    30.75    62.86    38.68P    0.20R    0.06  
Chesterfield          4   10   +5       3.82    92.67     3.99    81.23    10.90    25.72    24.07    54.66    82.71    62.82P    0.07R    0.02  
Fleetwood_Town        4    9   +4       3.35    88.27     3.68    66.63    11.03     3.95     2.57    11.09    34.09    15.97P    1.76R    0.62  
Southend              4    9   +3       2.99    85.92     2.19    75.83    11.09    17.02    11.75    34.64    66.67    43.30P    0.19R    0.06  
Burton_Albion         4    8   +2       2.72    84.02     2.35    66.56    11.22     2.75     2.73    11.36    34.37    15.94P    2.12R    0.80  
Newport_County        4    7   +2       2.53    83.77     3.70    47.43    10.93   -27.05     0.03     0.32     2.18     0.61P   37.83R   22.61  
Exeter                4    7   +1       0.61    59.35    -0.41    67.12    10.94     4.86     2.73    11.87    36.21    17.89P    1.53R    0.53  
AFC_Wimbledon         4    7   +0       2.68    84.84     1.84    55.78    10.85   -14.87     0.25     1.64     8.52     2.76P   13.19R    6.29  
Plymouth              4    6   +0       1.09    65.91     0.72    60.32    10.60    -4.05     0.63     3.55    15.91     5.97P    5.47R    2.17  
Scunthorpe            4    5   +1      -2.16    21.74    -1.57    73.41    11.83    17.62    10.01    28.89    58.75    37.85P    0.61R    0.15  
Portsmouth            4    5   +0      -2.51    18.42    -3.14    79.33    12.01    26.88    22.02    48.53    76.02    57.70P    0.24R    0.08  
Dag_&_Red             4    5   +0      -0.41    45.03     0.16    57.41    10.78    -7.84     0.36     2.22    10.97     4.02P    9.66R    4.20  
Torquay               4    5   -1      -0.63    42.16    -1.27    62.01    10.92    -1.84     1.01     5.37    20.81     8.84P    4.50R    1.74  
Mansfield             4    5   -1       1.08    68.45     1.47    53.48    11.45   -15.37     0.22     1.29     6.98     2.29P   19.50R   10.10  
Rochdale              4    4   +1      -1.48    31.30     1.06    66.22    11.30     7.87     2.44    11.17    34.51    16.85P    2.37R    0.84  
Bury                  4    4   +0      -2.01    24.55    -0.78    69.74    11.99    12.55     5.41    19.50    46.60    27.26P    1.44R    0.53  
Bristol_Rovers        4    4   -1      -1.42    32.17    -0.85    57.73    11.02    -7.47     0.42     2.50    12.07     4.46P    9.68R    4.22  
Wycombe               4    4   -1      -1.72    27.53    -1.30    59.80    10.87    -3.48     0.60     3.63    15.59     6.38P    6.42R    2.74  
Morecambe             4    4   -2      -0.86    39.46    -0.96    59.41    10.88    -5.07     0.51     3.09    14.74     5.61P    7.16R    3.11  
York                  4    4   -2      -0.76    40.78    -1.04    52.33    10.36   -15.26     0.07     0.67     4.31     1.34P   19.66R    9.52  
Cheltenham            4    4   -3      -1.60    28.79    -3.17    62.15    10.86    -1.99     0.92     5.10    20.97     8.74P    4.39R    1.74  
Northampton           4    3   -2      -2.76    14.02    -2.48    58.48    11.09    -5.54     0.49     3.06    13.48     5.42P    8.70R    3.68  
Hartlepool            4    1   -5      -4.56     3.83    -5.17    60.84    11.38    -1.05     0.97     4.85    19.02     8.81P    6.31R    2.68  
Accrington_Stanley    4    1   -7      -3.24    11.00    -4.94    47.32    10.51   -25.08     0.03     0.25     1.65     0.49P   37.00R   21.53  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 26 August 2013, Aldershot 2 1 Woking; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barnet            5   11   +7       1.16    64.83     2.19    87.34    10.89    38.88    39.86    84.34    54.24P    0.00R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd     5   11   +6       3.85    91.09     5.39    73.93    10.60    16.59     5.49    40.55    12.27P    0.29R    0.02  
Nuneaton          5   11   +4       5.03    95.84     5.32    65.07    10.39     1.18     0.93    13.53     2.76P    2.22R    0.20  
Grimsby           5   10   +3       1.45    67.83     0.41    80.11    10.32    24.61    14.55    63.67    27.98P    0.04R    0.00  
Lincoln_City      5   10   +3       3.37    86.38     3.32    66.69    10.58     4.05     1.44    17.41     4.14P    1.67R    0.15  
Halifax           5   10   +0       4.29    91.92     2.01    55.50    11.86   -19.06     0.36     4.59     0.99P   17.57R    3.56  
Kidderminster     5    9   +2      -0.16    46.33    -1.84    79.77    10.56    25.29    14.59    62.31    27.98P    0.05R    0.00  
Alfreton_Town     5    9   +1       2.74    81.28     2.08    61.18    10.79    -6.61     0.49     8.03     1.48P    5.74R    0.78  
Southport         5    9   +0       2.55    78.81     0.71    60.15    10.60    -9.21     0.36     6.60     1.22P    6.63R    0.90  
Forest_Green      5    8   +8      -0.47    44.26     5.46    74.21    10.45    23.72     5.97    42.44    14.70P    0.22R    0.02  
Welling           5    8   +2       2.08    76.53     3.58    56.25    11.90   -11.43     0.34     5.05     1.13P   15.61R    3.14  
Hereford          5    8   +2      -0.77    40.10    -0.85    70.90    10.62    12.85     3.41    30.19     9.50P    0.58R    0.03  
Braintree_Town    5    7   +0       0.97    64.17     1.27    60.22    10.51    -5.11     0.28     6.57     1.18P    6.37R    0.88  
Luton             5    6   +1      -2.22    22.44    -1.05    70.90    10.42    14.67     3.08    29.65     9.55P    0.56R    0.03  
Dartford          5    6   -4      -0.34    45.74    -3.22    57.33    10.47   -11.46     0.17     3.85     0.77P   10.08R    1.53  
Wrexham           5    5   -2      -4.10     8.18    -5.60    73.49    10.38    17.26     4.99    39.04    14.51P    0.24R    0.03  
Tamworth          5    5   -2      -0.51    45.41    -0.09    52.05    10.11   -15.71     0.02     1.08     0.19P   21.62R    4.00  
Woking            5    4   -3      -2.15    24.54    -1.64    52.46    10.60   -16.80     0.04     1.61     0.25P   21.62R    4.01  
Salisbury         5    4   -3      -0.87    41.14     0.07    47.40    11.23   -23.28     0.03     0.81     0.17P   39.70R   11.72  
Macclesfield      5    3   -2      -3.82     9.13    -2.01    59.80    10.60    -1.06     0.32     6.38     1.47P    6.75R    0.97  
Hyde_United       5    2  -10      -2.76    16.84    -6.31    45.54    10.23   -32.55     0.00     0.27     0.03P   46.11R   13.70  
Gateshead         5    1   -5      -4.58     5.11    -2.97    54.09    10.54   -10.03     0.07     2.00     0.40P   16.74R    3.03  
Chester           5    0  -10      -3.90     3.98    -4.47    35.74    10.80   -44.96     0.00     0.04     0.00P   78.66R   51.23  
Aldershot         5   -3   +2     -12.32     0.00    -1.77    70.18    10.90    28.16     3.21    29.98    13.10P    0.93R    0.07  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10