Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 26 August 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 26 August 2013, Man_Utd 0 0 Chelsea; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Chelsea           3    7   +3       1.36    76.91     0.61    73.48     9.39    31.47    16.98    38.38    57.28    72.35    90.95     0.01R    0.00  
Liverpool         2    6   +2       2.25    85.51     0.57    68.09     9.74    21.15     7.29    19.03    33.73    49.54    77.64     0.05R    0.01  
Tottenham         2    6   +2       1.93    82.00    -0.01    65.57     9.75    17.28     4.74    12.94    24.38    38.78    68.62     0.11R    0.00  
Man_Utd           2    4   +3       0.22    57.06     1.41    79.76     9.25    47.17    44.40    67.16    80.86    89.46    97.47     0.00R    0.00  
West_Ham          2    4   +2       0.96    71.77     1.57    48.12     9.41    -6.06     0.06     0.29     0.87     2.18     8.98     8.09R    1.26  
Southampton       2    4   +1       1.35    78.46     1.13    46.95     9.50    -9.75     0.06     0.23     0.75     1.74     7.38    10.43R    1.77  
Man_City          2    3   +3      -1.44    19.45     0.28    73.12     9.50    35.36    17.49    37.62    56.12    71.47    90.27     0.01R    0.00  
Arsenal           2    3   +0      -0.90    29.62    -1.85    68.17     9.88    24.90     7.92    20.31    35.08    50.84    77.72     0.08R    0.00  
Aston_Villa       3    3   +0       0.77    65.19     3.14    46.02     9.42    -8.35     0.03     0.15     0.48     1.28     6.01    11.89R    2.03  
Stoke             2    3   +0       0.41    56.84     0.18    44.80     9.08    -9.97     0.02     0.10     0.33     0.85     4.20    13.73R    2.14  
Cardiff           2    3   -1       1.31    75.20     0.66    40.94     9.94   -19.66     0.02     0.08     0.24     0.58     2.65    28.51R    7.63  
Fulham            2    3   -1       0.71    63.15    -0.32    49.28     9.60    -6.21     0.07     0.42     1.24     2.95    11.13     7.03R    1.08  
Hull              2    3   -1       1.34    76.01     0.73    35.15     8.98   -26.51     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.06     0.49    51.52R   17.57  
Everton           2    2   +0      -1.46    22.72    -1.04    57.71     9.64     9.30     0.82     2.84     7.03    13.84    36.37     0.95R    0.11  
Norwich           2    1   -1      -1.53    25.80    -0.71    40.78     9.42   -16.98     0.01     0.04     0.16     0.39     2.12    27.10R    6.50  
Sunderland        2    1   -1      -1.65    24.04    -0.90    44.07     9.21   -10.22     0.02     0.06     0.26     0.71     3.71    15.90R    2.93  
West_Brom         2    1   -1      -1.52    25.90    -0.72    46.74     9.52    -7.15     0.06     0.23     0.66     1.58     7.01    10.75R    1.82  
Newcastle         2    1   -4      -0.91    38.05    -2.51    42.79     9.40   -16.78     0.01     0.05     0.21     0.56     3.03    20.83R    4.44  
Crystal_Palace    2    0   -2      -1.53    16.58    -0.19    28.54     8.90   -37.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.09    76.97R   47.55  
Swansea           2    0   -4      -1.51    17.54    -2.06    44.30     9.36   -11.56     0.01     0.06     0.30     0.84     4.17    16.04R    3.16  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 25 August 2013, Watford 1 1 Nott'm_Forest; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Nott'm_Forest    4   10   +5       4.31    94.75     4.73    73.18    11.03    13.73     6.19    13.73    44.65    20.76P    0.47R    0.03  
Blackpool        4   10   +4       3.54    91.01     2.49    73.81    11.34    13.56     7.52    15.59    47.49    22.75P    0.45R    0.04  
Leicester        4   10   +3       3.46    90.19     1.44    79.61    11.19    21.46    16.92    30.63    67.23    40.45P    0.13R    0.01  
QPR              4   10   +3       3.30    89.38     1.21    78.25    11.59    19.08    14.98    27.26    62.34    37.12P    0.20R    0.02  
Watford          4    8   +6       1.34    68.74     3.99    78.99    11.57    27.50    16.83    30.28    65.82    40.03P    0.20R    0.01  
Leeds_United     4    8   +2       2.82    85.43     2.44    65.22    11.16     1.37     1.51     4.01    20.35     7.26P    3.05R    0.39  
Huddersfield     4    7   +4       1.79    75.56     4.31    58.89    11.08    -5.06     0.39     1.21     8.70     2.55P    9.11R    1.55  
Derby            4    7   +3       1.36    69.67     2.71    66.15    11.10     5.45     1.74     4.60    22.79     8.49P    2.50R    0.30  
Burnley          4    7   +1       1.02    65.87     0.15    66.05    11.23     3.20     1.99     4.82    22.55     8.64P    2.57R    0.31  
Brighton         4    6   +1      -0.15    47.26     0.02    72.28    10.98    14.21     5.43    12.07    42.02    20.19P    0.62R    0.05  
Bournemouth      4    6   -7       2.54    82.97    -3.24    46.97    11.27   -35.88     0.03     0.12     1.23     0.26P   43.18R   14.48  
Wigan            4    5   +3      -2.86    15.19    -0.76    75.41    12.17    23.16    11.63    21.87    53.85    31.63P    0.58R    0.06  
Reading          4    5   +0      -1.11    35.43    -0.93    74.47    12.05    18.68     9.36    18.66    50.50    27.90P    0.75R    0.08  
Middlesbrough    4    5   +0       0.32    57.19     1.26    62.21    11.12    -0.53     0.82     2.35    13.83     4.72P    5.38R    0.81  
Blackburn        4    4   +0      -2.02    24.11    -0.85    62.75    11.24     1.70     0.93     2.61    15.36     5.42P    4.95R    0.77  
Doncaster        3    4   +0       0.88    68.16     1.66    52.79    11.90   -15.89     0.16     0.53     3.98     1.19P   24.20R    6.60  
Ipswich          4    3   +0      -1.77    24.99     1.10    56.12    11.02    -6.65     0.21     0.65     5.46     1.54P   13.64R    2.69  
Birmingham       4    3   -2      -2.50    17.56    -2.04    63.54    11.22     2.56     1.06     3.00    16.85     6.25P    4.23R    0.60  
Yeovil           4    3   -5      -0.55    43.36    -1.92    39.06    10.69   -41.79     0.00     0.01     0.14     0.02P   70.24R   38.79  
Sheff_Wed        4    2   -2      -2.82    14.72    -1.03    53.26    10.97   -11.66     0.10     0.36     3.31     0.94P   20.31R    4.64  
Bolton           4    2   -4      -3.23    12.16    -3.64    65.19    11.47     4.52     1.72     4.33    21.05     8.58P    3.54R    0.55  
Charlton         3    1   -2      -3.67     7.24    -2.81    58.61    11.31    -4.00     0.43     1.17     8.68     2.86P    9.73R    1.66  
Millwall         4    1   -5      -4.59     3.81    -5.23    49.52    10.59   -18.03     0.03     0.11     1.32     0.34P   30.77R    7.77  
Barnsley         4    1   -8      -2.71    16.04    -5.02    44.90    10.67   -30.67     0.01     0.03     0.48     0.10P   49.19R   17.81  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 25 August 2013, Coventry 4 4 Preston; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient    4   12  +10       5.01    96.65     7.68    74.92    11.35    17.88     3.15    10.99    52.63    19.92P    0.61R    0.02  
Peterborough     4   12   +9       4.16    93.71     5.02    96.66    12.07    57.64    55.07    77.47    96.12    83.34P    0.01R    0.00  
Wolverhampton    4   10   +6       2.20    80.25     2.22    90.35    11.88    42.79    28.50    58.76    90.69    69.49P    0.03R    0.00  
Brentford        4    8   +3       1.47    69.95     1.43    73.86    11.40    15.49     2.47     9.17    49.13    19.07P    0.89R    0.05  
Colchester       4    8   +2       2.34    80.83     1.73    57.96    11.04   -10.94     0.09     0.45     7.54     1.59P   14.75R    1.85  
Bradford         4    7   +5       2.34    81.45     6.51    51.99    11.54   -16.48     0.04     0.20     3.50     0.71P   31.90R    6.76  
Walsall          4    7   +2       1.29    68.56     1.68    67.10    11.59     5.16     0.77     3.40    26.93     8.23P    3.70R    0.35  
Oldham           4    6   +1       1.25    67.45     2.52    57.68    11.27    -8.93     0.07     0.43     7.81     1.64P   15.86R    2.26  
Rotherham        4    6   +1       1.31    67.67     2.43    50.05    11.79   -24.48     0.02     0.16     2.71     0.53P   39.14R   10.37  
MK_Dons          4    6   +1      -0.73    38.50    -0.95    74.89    11.36    18.31     3.10    10.94    52.91    22.30P    0.64R    0.04  
Shrewsbury       4    5   -1       0.37    57.62     0.30    57.31    11.19   -10.29     0.09     0.46     7.08     1.57P   16.72R    2.43  
Preston          4    4   +0      -1.00    38.20     0.84    64.04    11.47     3.27     0.36     1.78    19.26     5.65P    6.00R    0.67  
Crawley_Town     4    4   -1      -0.85    40.40     0.28    57.19    11.56    -9.80     0.10     0.52     7.79     1.82P   17.70R    2.82  
Crewe            4    4   -2      -0.67    42.96    -0.57    51.64    11.09   -20.12     0.01     0.09     2.65     0.48P   32.52R    7.16  
Port_Vale        4    4   -2      -0.90    39.82    -1.03    50.53    12.11   -22.51     0.03     0.23     3.33     0.77P   37.86R    9.93  
Swindon          4    4   -2      -2.48    18.37    -3.39    73.50    11.34    16.23     2.11     8.59    48.34    20.01P    0.95R    0.05  
Sheff_Utd        4    4   -3      -2.55    18.44    -4.60    70.84    11.46    11.06     1.49     5.95    38.56    14.44P    1.82R    0.13  
Stevenage        4    3   -2      -1.73    26.18    -0.85    55.75    11.19   -10.42     0.05     0.29     5.46     1.31P   20.24R    3.30  
Bristol_City     4    2   -2      -3.49    10.02    -1.87    68.72    13.05    12.43     1.78     6.42    34.71    13.95P    4.62R    0.56  
Gillingham       4    2   -5      -1.73    26.52    -2.08    48.43    11.74   -23.92     0.00     0.08     1.94     0.38P   44.08R   12.74  
Notts_County     4    1   -4      -4.00     6.83    -3.12    62.08    11.63     0.84     0.20     1.24    15.45     4.41P    8.96R    1.02  
Tranmere         4    1   -8      -3.83     8.01    -6.82    54.70    11.36   -14.93     0.04     0.24     4.83     1.11P   23.42R    4.20  
Carlisle         4    1  -12      -2.97    14.94    -9.21    41.00    10.86   -46.54     0.00     0.01     0.29     0.05P   70.55R   32.41  
Coventry         4   -3   +4      -9.79     0.00     1.85    63.64    11.91    18.27     0.45     2.15    20.34     7.23P    7.04R    0.89  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 24 August 2013, AFC_Wimbledon 3 2 Scunthorpe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Oxford_Utd            4   10   +6       4.45    95.59     5.98    74.52    11.19    16.63     9.85    30.60    62.74    38.01P    0.31R    0.10  
Chesterfield          4   10   +5       3.83    92.64     4.00    81.32    10.89    25.87    24.65    54.92    83.00    63.21P    0.04R    0.01  
Fleetwood_Town        4    9   +4       3.35    88.24     3.65    66.62    10.90     3.94     2.52    10.91    33.87    15.81P    1.69R    0.62  
Southend              4    9   +3       2.98    86.05     2.14    76.21    10.82    17.59    11.91    35.17    68.57    44.15P    0.14R    0.04  
Burton_Albion         4    8   +2       2.69    83.61     2.29    66.86    11.37     3.24     2.92    12.14    35.25    16.96P    2.18R    0.80  
Newport_County        4    7   +2       2.53    83.65     3.69    47.62    10.99   -26.65     0.03     0.39     2.44     0.66P   37.28R   22.12  
Exeter                4    7   +1       0.57    58.70    -0.46    67.16    10.91     4.85     2.62    11.92    36.30    17.72P    1.46R    0.49  
AFC_Wimbledon         4    7   +0       2.66    84.80     1.84    55.53    11.00   -15.17     0.27     1.63     8.51     2.74P   14.05R    6.61  
Plymouth              4    6   +0       1.11    66.07     0.76    60.50    10.61    -3.78     0.64     3.69    16.10     6.28P    5.20R    2.04  
Scunthorpe            4    5   +1      -2.16    21.90    -1.55    73.02    11.72    17.04     9.04    27.59    57.60    36.73P    0.63R    0.22  
Portsmouth            4    5   +0      -2.52    18.37    -3.17    79.32    11.80    26.83    21.46    48.38    76.18    57.56P    0.11R    0.03  
Dag_&_Red             4    5   +0      -0.45    44.32     0.10    57.78    10.77    -7.27     0.38     2.39    11.61     4.25P    9.00R    3.83  
Torquay               4    5   -1      -0.63    42.16    -1.26    61.82    10.96    -2.17     0.99     5.13    20.24     8.57P    4.73R    1.82  
Mansfield             4    5   -1       1.05    68.07     1.43    53.58    11.43   -15.26     0.23     1.35     6.93     2.39P   19.32R   10.09  
Rochdale              4    4   +1      -1.46    31.41     1.07    66.08    11.23     7.60     2.53    10.89    33.70    16.59P    2.30R    0.90  
Bury                  4    4   +0      -2.00    24.50    -0.80    69.92    12.07    12.86     5.97    20.15    47.17    27.66P    1.49R    0.58  
Bristol_Rovers        4    4   -1      -1.37    32.38    -0.78    57.36    11.00    -8.11     0.42     2.42    11.40     4.33P   10.27R    4.55  
Wycombe               4    4   -1      -1.68    27.70    -1.28    59.68    10.82    -3.67     0.60     3.28    15.31     6.09P    6.47R    2.68  
Morecambe             4    4   -2      -0.82    39.78    -0.91    59.06    10.90    -5.55     0.50     2.96    14.09     5.40P    7.76R    3.31  
York                  4    4   -2      -0.75    40.99    -1.03    52.23    10.34   -15.44     0.06     0.63     4.13     1.33P   19.82R    9.67  
Cheltenham            4    4   -3      -1.58    29.18    -3.14    62.17    10.97    -1.93     0.94     5.50    21.28     9.26P    4.52R    1.74  
Northampton           4    3   -2      -2.77    14.04    -2.48    58.51    11.08    -5.51     0.53     2.99    13.42     5.31P    8.48R    3.78  
Hartlepool            4    1   -5      -4.55     3.99    -5.16    60.68    11.36    -1.27     0.94     4.80    18.52     8.64P    6.38R    2.68  
Accrington_Stanley    4    1   -7      -3.23    11.02    -4.92    47.55    10.57   -24.66     0.01     0.17     1.64     0.36P   36.36R   21.28  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 26 August 2013, Aldershot 2 1 Woking; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barnet            5   11   +7       1.20    65.23     2.27    86.94    10.91    38.37    38.97    83.16    53.33P    0.02R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd     5   11   +6       3.85    91.02     5.38    73.98    10.59    16.68     5.69    40.69    12.53P    0.28R    0.02  
Nuneaton          5   11   +4       5.02    95.74     5.30    65.11    10.38     1.28     0.90    13.59     2.88P    2.28R    0.21  
Grimsby           5   10   +3       1.50    68.27     0.48    79.89    10.40    24.27    14.78    62.91    28.03P    0.03R    0.00  
Lincoln_City      5   10   +3       3.37    86.59     3.31    66.79    10.46     4.16     1.42    17.58     4.02P    1.59R    0.12  
Halifax           5   10   +0       4.28    91.94     2.01    55.45    11.88   -19.14     0.34     4.35     0.93P   17.59R    3.83  
Kidderminster     5    9   +2      -0.16    46.41    -1.84    79.70    10.59    25.17    14.41    62.64    27.72P    0.05R    0.00  
Alfreton_Town     5    9   +1       2.71    81.23     2.02    61.31    10.70    -6.34     0.45     8.07     1.47P    5.43R    0.66  
Southport         5    9   +0       2.53    78.55     0.67    60.32    10.60    -9.07     0.34     6.63     1.20P    6.26R    0.82  
Forest_Green      5    8   +8      -0.46    44.41     5.45    74.33    10.53    23.89     6.34    42.99    15.36P    0.25R    0.02  
Welling           5    8   +2       2.02    75.80     3.50    56.54    11.82   -10.91     0.31     5.23     1.09P   14.57R    2.72  
Hereford          5    8   +2      -0.75    40.32    -0.84    70.81    10.63    12.71     3.33    30.15     9.34P    0.67R    0.04  
Braintree_Town    5    7   +0       0.95    63.67     1.26    60.10    10.64    -5.30     0.33     6.59     1.30P    6.60R    0.89  
Luton             5    6   +1      -2.24    22.21    -1.08    71.05    10.47    14.91     3.32    30.35    10.04P    0.58R    0.03  
Dartford          5    6   -4      -0.35    45.82    -3.25    57.34    10.40   -11.38     0.18     3.72     0.73P   10.05R    1.49  
Wrexham           5    5   -2      -4.12     8.21    -5.63    73.70    10.42    17.57     5.25    39.86    15.07P    0.30R    0.02  
Tamworth          5    5   -2      -0.52    45.43    -0.11    52.06    10.05   -15.68     0.03     1.11     0.17P   21.26R    3.89  
Woking            5    4   -3      -2.09    25.26    -1.57    52.39    10.48   -16.97     0.06     1.47     0.27P   21.75R    4.16  
Salisbury         5    4   -3      -0.84    41.23     0.12    47.16    11.35   -23.63     0.03     0.82     0.15P   40.32R   12.49  
Macclesfield      5    3   -2      -3.81     9.20    -2.02    59.89    10.58    -0.88     0.29     6.38     1.40P    6.60R    0.99  
Hyde_United       5    2  -10      -2.74    16.90    -6.24    45.25    10.36   -33.09     0.01     0.21     0.03P   47.28R   14.85  
Gateshead         5    1   -5      -4.58     5.07    -2.94    53.98    10.47   -10.21     0.05     1.90     0.33P   17.01R    3.21  
Chester           5    0  -10      -3.90     3.85    -4.51    36.03    10.64   -44.30     0.00     0.03     0.00P   78.38R   49.47  
Aldershot         5   -3   +2     -12.30     0.00    -1.74    70.05    10.87    27.91     3.17    29.58    12.61P    0.85R    0.08  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10