Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 22 August 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 21 August 2013, Chelsea 2 1 Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Chelsea           2    6   +3       1.38    74.49    -0.11    74.12     9.82    33.21    14.84    34.60    55.03    71.00    89.57     0.00R    0.00  
Man_City          1    3   +4       0.65    63.47     2.30    77.48     9.77    42.47    24.35    50.15    69.14    81.61    94.46     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd           1    3   +3       0.83    67.01     1.67    82.21     9.62    53.80    46.44    70.07    83.49    91.11    97.81     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham          1    3   +2       1.26    75.31     1.44    48.31     9.87    -7.65     0.05     0.28     0.92     2.27     9.29     7.61R    1.09  
Aston_Villa       2    3   +1       1.69    81.49     3.60    47.60     9.85    -8.11     0.04     0.19     0.66     1.92     7.96     8.90R    1.44  
Fulham            1    3   +1       1.64    81.99     1.00    51.37    10.02    -3.88     0.10     0.58     1.87     4.49    15.12     4.43R    0.60  
Liverpool         1    3   +1       1.02    71.24     0.13    67.69    10.30    22.75     5.11    15.14    29.04    45.15    72.81     0.13R    0.02  
Southampton       1    3   +1       1.80    84.09     1.27    47.85    10.01   -10.08     0.04     0.24     0.88     2.22     8.76     8.88R    1.33  
Tottenham         1    3   +1       0.82    66.92    -0.30    65.15    10.33    18.62     3.29    10.44    21.14    35.09    64.14     0.22R    0.02  
Everton           1    1   +0      -0.72    38.47    -0.52    59.36    10.13    11.28     0.96     3.66     8.86    16.94    40.88     0.69R    0.06  
Norwich           1    1   +0      -0.03    61.53     0.52    43.27     9.84   -15.86     0.01     0.04     0.23     0.77     3.67    18.27R    3.78  
Crystal_Palace    1    0   -1      -0.63    33.08     0.30    29.36     9.31   -39.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.10    71.72R   38.17  
Stoke             1    0   -1      -0.76    28.76    -0.13    43.44     9.40   -11.50     0.01     0.05     0.19     0.55     3.04    16.07R    2.90  
Sunderland        1    0   -1      -1.36    18.01    -1.00    44.35     9.69   -11.45     0.02     0.08     0.34     0.88     4.20    14.93R    2.73  
West_Brom         1    0   -1      -1.55    15.91    -1.27    46.64    10.08    -9.01     0.03     0.23     0.66     1.77     7.23    11.14R    1.91  
Arsenal           1    0   -2      -2.11     8.29    -3.24    66.85    10.30    24.05     4.68    14.05    26.79    42.10    70.53     0.11R    0.02  
Cardiff           1    0   -2      -1.01    24.69    -1.44    36.33    10.01   -26.98     0.00     0.02     0.06     0.19     0.95    43.49R   14.05  
Hull              1    0   -2      -0.41    37.62    -0.25    32.04     9.29   -32.07     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.25    61.28R   25.43  
Swansea           1    0   -3      -0.64    32.99    -1.67    45.48     9.87   -11.90     0.01     0.10     0.42     1.13     5.42    12.77R    2.33  
Newcastle         1    0   -4      -0.49    36.53    -2.30    43.20    10.08   -18.46     0.02     0.07     0.26     0.78     3.83    19.35R    4.12  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 20 August 2013, Wigan 2 2 Doncaster; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Nott'm_Forest    3    9   +5       4.38    96.29     4.24    72.01    11.13    11.39     5.61    12.50    43.59    19.51P    0.83R    0.09  
Watford          3    7   +6       2.13    83.54     4.73    80.23    11.82    28.44    20.78    36.12    71.73    45.87P    0.20R    0.02  
Blackpool        3    7   +3       2.09    82.16     1.80    70.98    11.57    10.62     5.39    11.93    40.63    18.57P    1.31R    0.17  
Burnley          3    7   +3       2.06    82.24     1.71    68.31    11.33     6.62     3.10     7.80    31.52    13.27P    1.97R    0.28  
QPR              3    7   +2       1.73    77.60     0.35    74.66    11.83    15.03     9.75    19.50    53.09    28.55P    0.72R    0.08  
Leicester        3    7   +2       2.22    83.35     1.00    76.79    11.23    18.15    11.75    23.75    60.88    33.74P    0.25R    0.02  
Bournemouth      3    6   -3       3.27    90.87    -0.51    51.71    11.69   -24.23     0.12     0.40     3.56     0.88P   29.80R   10.05  
Reading          3    5   +1       0.15    51.99    -0.12    77.10    12.39    21.32    15.15    27.28    61.10    37.09P    0.58R    0.07  
Leeds_United     3    5   +1       1.12    69.23     1.32    62.21    11.25    -1.56     0.90     2.67    15.49     5.17P    6.38R    1.24  
Wigan            3    4   +3      -1.88    22.57     0.26    77.59    12.40    25.57    16.51    29.51    63.09    39.84P    0.53R    0.08  
Doncaster        3    4   +0       0.88    68.20     1.60    52.79    11.65   -15.28     0.20     0.54     4.30     1.19P   25.38R    8.02  
Derby            3    4   +0       0.20    56.06     0.39    62.25    11.29    -0.81     0.94     2.66    15.87     5.51P    6.32R    1.20  
Middlesbrough    3    4   +0       0.26    57.30     0.49    60.81    11.28    -2.93     0.70     2.02    12.89     4.29P    8.16R    1.69  
Huddersfield     3    4   +0       0.73    65.41     1.12    54.65    11.01   -12.19     0.17     0.58     4.75     1.27P   19.01R    4.86  
Ipswich          3    3   +1      -0.37    43.83     2.12    57.84    11.09    -4.68     0.32     1.05     8.27     2.41P   12.00R    2.84  
Brighton         3    3   -1      -1.40    27.37    -1.46    68.78    11.06     9.38     3.21     7.72    32.97    14.60P    1.62R    0.23  
Birmingham       3    3   -1      -1.43    27.10    -1.47    64.26    11.25     2.71     1.50     3.84    20.30     7.69P    4.24R    0.71  
Yeovil           3    3   -2       0.26    55.85     0.11    42.82    11.16   -33.27     0.02     0.06     0.65     0.15P   59.65R   30.83  
Bolton           3    2   -3      -1.85    23.22    -2.61    67.15    11.50     6.33     2.74     6.57    28.41    11.86P    2.92R    0.48  
Charlton         3    1   -2      -3.55     7.48    -2.65    58.44    11.23    -4.00     0.41     1.29     9.50     3.14P   11.32R    2.53  
Sheff_Wed        3    1   -2      -2.28    18.04    -0.85    53.64    11.10   -11.03     0.13     0.39     4.18     1.05P   21.56R    6.04  
Blackburn        3    1   -3      -3.05    10.69    -2.95    59.24    11.25    -3.69     0.56     1.61    10.51     3.63P   10.02R    2.04  
Barnsley         3    1   -5      -2.00    22.17    -3.24    47.97    10.85   -23.32     0.02     0.10     1.28     0.31P   39.83R   14.90  
Millwall         3    0   -5      -4.33     1.77    -5.37    48.98    10.61   -18.56     0.03     0.12     1.48     0.40P   35.43R   11.55  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 17 August 2013, Bristol_City 1 2 Wolverhampton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient    3    9   +8       4.01    94.50     6.67    72.80    11.58    15.20     3.36     9.83    43.98    17.00P    1.19R    0.06  
Peterborough     3    9   +4       3.44    91.72     1.60    90.17    12.73    42.77    38.18    59.65    88.59    68.11P    0.07R    0.00  
Wolverhampton    3    7   +5       1.46    74.87     2.69    89.25    12.17    42.92    34.23    56.95    88.24    67.40P    0.04R    0.00  
Walsall          3    7   +3       2.38    84.74     2.24    68.62    11.70     6.61     1.66     5.38    30.38    10.50P    3.01R    0.28  
Colchester       3    7   +2       3.21    92.54     2.52    59.62    11.30    -8.66     0.28     0.94     9.96     2.47P   12.13R    1.42  
Brentford        3    5   +2       0.28    54.67     1.09    72.18    11.58    14.57     2.88     8.83    42.19    16.83P    1.39R    0.07  
Rotherham        3    5   +1       1.72    77.27     2.46    50.89    11.99   -23.17     0.06     0.23     3.16     0.62P   36.65R    8.89  
MK_Dons          3    5   +1      -0.03    49.41    -0.43    75.92    11.55    19.46     5.47    14.84    54.95    26.00P    0.60R    0.04  
Bradford         3    4   +3       0.61    64.60     4.37    47.90    11.54   -22.64     0.05     0.14     1.67     0.39P   45.88R   12.09  
Crawley_Town     3    4   +0      -0.13    51.07     0.02    57.67    11.64   -10.36     0.19     0.72     7.85     1.89P   16.99R    2.49  
Crewe            3    4   +0       0.15    55.95     0.50    54.22    11.44   -15.99     0.09     0.36     4.33     1.03P   25.32R    4.46  
Port_Vale        3    4   +0       0.00    53.13     0.22    53.18    12.41   -17.65     0.15     0.51     5.12     1.34P   29.90R    6.76  
Sheff_Utd        3    4   -1      -0.99    35.43    -2.35    74.60    11.58    17.02     4.50    12.61    50.39    23.06P    0.91R    0.06  
Shrewsbury       3    4   -1       0.75    65.86     0.25    57.84    11.22    -9.61     0.15     0.62     7.35     1.76P   15.65R    2.11  
Preston          3    3   +0      -0.92    34.77     0.27    63.51    11.38     2.11     0.48     1.90    16.84     5.09P    6.71R    0.60  
Oldham           3    3   -1      -0.09    48.73     0.87    54.96    11.24   -12.45     0.05     0.28     4.59     1.01P   22.50R    3.74  
Swindon          3    3   -2      -1.57    24.32    -2.62    74.63    11.51    17.47     3.92    12.17    50.72    23.10P    0.86R    0.06  
Bristol_City     3    1   -2      -3.46     8.14    -2.49    68.26    13.13    11.04     2.43     7.04    32.34    13.43P    4.84R    0.56  
Tranmere         3    1   -3      -3.17    10.11    -3.08    59.44    11.46    -4.22     0.22     0.89     9.89     2.75P   12.54R    1.64  
Notts_County     3    1   -3      -2.40    18.25    -1.81    65.21    11.68     4.78     0.70     2.85    21.30     7.04P    5.69R    0.62  
Gillingham       3    1   -5      -1.97    21.96    -3.03    46.98    11.79   -26.32     0.00     0.07     1.52     0.32P   49.37R   15.13  
Stevenage        3    0   -3      -3.67     3.77    -2.30    52.23    11.33   -14.45     0.04     0.19     3.02     0.72P   30.41R    6.03  
Carlisle         3    0  -12      -3.12     6.85   -10.16    40.88    11.03   -47.46     0.00     0.01     0.28     0.05P   71.11R   32.27  
Coventry         3   -4   +4      -9.05     0.00     2.48    64.46    11.92    19.04     0.90     3.00    21.34     8.11P    6.25R    0.62  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 17 August 2013, Bury 3 0 Accrington_Stanley; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Oxford_Utd            3    9   +6       5.22    98.32     6.55    75.50    11.31    17.67    10.87    32.36    64.91    39.92P    0.23R    0.08  
Southend              3    9   +4       3.99    95.36     2.68    77.15    11.19    17.98    13.53    37.51    70.12    45.96P    0.15R    0.04  
Chesterfield          3    7   +4       2.58    87.35     3.54    79.07    11.13    23.81    17.41    44.80    76.43    54.10P    0.08R    0.03  
Exeter                3    7   +3       1.67    77.31     1.17    69.97    11.22     9.20     4.38    17.38    45.69    24.27P    0.91R    0.28  
Burton_Albion         3    7   +2       3.22    91.87     2.53    67.07    11.39     3.22     2.99    11.82    35.63    16.69P    1.91R    0.67  
Fleetwood_Town        3    6   +3       1.47    71.02     2.34    63.46    11.06     0.78     1.39     6.70    24.35    10.30P    3.17R    1.21  
Newport_County        3    6   +2       2.46    83.62     2.99    46.53    11.03   -29.08     0.04     0.28     1.94     0.53P   40.03R   24.64  
Scunthorpe            3    5   +2      -0.62    38.33    -0.28    75.88    11.96    20.20    12.93    34.94    66.04    44.47P    0.33R    0.11  
Rochdale              3    4   +2      -0.27    48.33     1.81    68.03    11.39     9.70     3.39    13.72    39.74    20.04P    1.52R    0.55  
Portsmouth            3    4   +0      -1.81    23.31    -2.62    80.18    12.06    27.34    22.55    49.54    77.62    59.16P    0.16R    0.06  
Dag_&_Red             3    4   +0       0.47    61.85     0.92    59.73    10.98    -4.70     0.54     3.38    15.45     5.80P    6.38R    2.62  
AFC_Wimbledon         3    4   -1       0.87    68.51     0.54    53.02    10.85   -17.01     0.14     0.95     5.41     1.74P   18.34R    8.98  
Mansfield             3    4   -1       1.15    73.06     0.93    53.17    11.56   -15.91     0.20     1.33     6.85     2.39P   19.71R   10.31  
York                  3    4   -1       0.25    56.74    -0.58    53.73    10.47   -13.57     0.09     0.73     5.44     1.59P   15.59R    7.34  
Bury                  3    3   +0      -1.71    22.39    -0.93    69.25    12.17    11.24     4.95    17.72    44.12    24.96P    1.61R    0.59  
Northampton           3    3   -1      -1.21    28.32    -1.25    61.11    11.16    -2.45     0.72     4.46    18.80     7.75P    5.29R    2.18  
Plymouth              3    3   -1      -0.38    43.60    -0.03    57.94    10.72    -6.08     0.28     2.01    11.37     3.97P    8.12R    3.64  
Wycombe               3    3   -1      -1.76    21.93    -1.95    58.86    10.80    -5.09     0.46     2.69    13.50     5.06P    7.04R    2.94  
Torquay               3    2   -2      -2.45    15.28    -2.54    58.69    11.00    -5.17     0.50     2.80    13.41     5.08P    7.54R    3.30  
Bristol_Rovers        3    1   -2      -2.54    15.53    -1.15    55.92    11.00    -8.30     0.21     1.62     8.94     3.12P   11.97R    5.52  
Cheltenham            3    1   -4      -3.20     8.81    -4.13    59.60    11.06    -4.29     0.53     3.27    15.30     6.02P    6.84R    2.96  
Morecambe             3    1   -4      -2.27    17.21    -2.64    56.05    10.88    -9.49     0.19     1.51     8.87     3.05P   11.43R    5.23  
Hartlepool            3    1   -4      -2.92    11.02    -3.80    63.95    11.71     2.50     1.66     8.10    27.12    13.20P    3.58R    1.45  
Accrington_Stanley    3    1   -6      -1.96    22.88    -4.11    49.63    10.83   -22.47     0.03     0.38     2.95     0.83P   28.06R   15.27  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 17 August 2013, Aldershot 0 1 Cambridge_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd     3    7   +5       2.68    91.06     4.53    72.42    11.10    15.39     4.55    33.07    10.05P    0.55R    0.05  
Barnet            3    7   +4       1.30    73.30     1.20    85.89    11.48    37.08    32.36    77.51    46.12P    0.03R    0.00  
Nuneaton          3    7   +3       2.92    90.74     3.02    61.32    10.65    -4.50     0.41     7.06     1.28P    5.21R    0.69  
Lincoln_City      3    7   +2       2.72    88.40     1.79    65.23    10.90     0.51     1.00    13.69     3.02P    2.62R    0.28  
Alfreton_Town     3    6   +2       1.65    74.06     1.59    60.24    11.03    -7.75     0.35     6.54     1.25P    6.93R    0.97  
Kidderminster     3    6   +1       0.86    61.43    -0.62    81.85    10.82    29.39    18.12    66.71    31.28P    0.03R    0.00  
Southport         3    6   +0       2.42    82.67     0.94    60.88    11.14    -8.97     0.47     7.40     1.50P    6.37R    0.87  
Halifax           3    6   -1       2.79    87.25     0.73    51.95    12.32   -26.71     0.18     2.59     0.51P   26.69R    7.17  
Hereford          3    5   +2      -0.33    43.66     0.11    72.63    11.04    16.56     4.61    33.99    11.04P    0.51R    0.04  
Tamworth          3    5   +1       1.50    75.22     1.85    56.48    10.58   -11.40     0.11     2.98     0.52P   11.24R    1.81  
Forest_Green      3    4   +7      -0.95    36.36     5.45    74.11    10.90    25.08     5.57    39.78    13.61P    0.35R    0.03  
Braintree_Town    3    4   +1       0.09    54.91     1.42    60.00    10.86    -4.69     0.35     6.17     1.26P    6.94R    1.08  
Luton             3    4   +1      -1.61    25.14    -1.36    72.14    10.85    15.91     3.88    32.18    10.44P    0.53R    0.06  
Wrexham           3    4   +0      -1.59    25.87    -2.40    79.22    10.77    26.71    12.48    57.91    25.72P    0.09R    0.01  
Welling           3    4   +0       0.98    70.10     1.94    52.59    12.37   -18.85     0.15     2.81     0.59P   24.52R    6.54  
Grimsby           3    4   +0      -0.48    43.76    -0.56    77.25    10.79    23.19     8.83    50.24    19.57P    0.12R    0.01  
Woking            3    4   +0       0.07    54.59     0.39    57.33    10.88   -10.90     0.17     3.92     0.63P   10.57R    1.65  
Dartford          3    3   -4      -0.52    39.96    -2.94    58.14    10.74   -10.65     0.21     4.21     0.83P    9.05R    1.40  
Macclesfield      3    1   -2      -2.72    12.00    -1.38    62.14    10.80     1.48     0.44     8.63     1.99P    4.48R    0.53  
Hyde_United       3    1   -9      -2.27    18.55    -7.31    45.28    10.46   -37.43     0.00     0.23     0.03P   46.74R   14.41  
Gateshead         3    0   -4      -3.14     5.36    -2.38    56.73    10.96    -8.06     0.15     3.32     0.67P   12.11R    2.03  
Salisbury         3    0   -4      -2.71     7.61    -1.38    42.95    11.98   -32.84     0.02     0.47     0.12P   54.35R   22.87  
Chester           3    0   -7      -2.78     7.64    -4.37    38.55    11.36   -43.60     0.00     0.11     0.02P   69.36R   37.45  
Aldershot         3   -6   +2     -11.53     0.00    -0.25    73.36    11.26    35.04     5.58    38.50    17.95P    0.61R    0.07  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10