Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 21 August 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 21 August 2013, Chelsea 2 1 Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Chelsea           2    6   +3       1.39    74.68    -0.10    74.11     9.72    33.13    14.52    34.47    55.22    71.44    89.81     0.01R    0.00  
Man_City          1    3   +4       0.65    63.61     2.32    77.58     9.70    42.53    24.73    50.78    69.69    82.01    94.56     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd           1    3   +3       0.83    67.12     1.68    82.11     9.54    53.37    46.26    70.19    83.58    91.21    97.89     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham          1    3   +2       1.24    74.90     1.43    48.47     9.93    -7.35     0.05     0.32     1.03     2.44     9.54     7.61R    1.17  
Aston_Villa       2    3   +1       1.69    81.42     3.58    47.79     9.85    -7.77     0.04     0.24     0.80     2.02     8.16     8.53R    1.32  
Fulham            1    3   +1       1.63    81.66     0.99    51.31     9.95    -3.80     0.12     0.57     1.81     4.24    14.67     4.44R    0.61  
Liverpool         1    3   +1       1.03    71.45     0.13    67.61    10.12    22.51     5.17    14.80    28.36    44.53    72.85     0.07R    0.01  
Southampton       1    3   +1       1.81    84.29     1.29    47.65     9.93   -10.36     0.05     0.24     0.84     2.03     8.04     8.95R    1.40  
Tottenham         1    3   +1       0.83    67.17    -0.28    64.95    10.24    18.25     3.28    10.17    20.36    34.04    63.20     0.19R    0.01  
Everton           1    1   +0      -0.72    38.38    -0.54    59.49    10.13    11.47     0.93     3.78     9.03    17.22    41.33     0.72R    0.05  
Norwich           1    1   +0      -0.03    61.62     0.54    43.03     9.92   -16.16     0.00     0.07     0.29     0.74     3.63    19.12R    4.14  
Crystal_Palace    1    0   -1      -0.63    32.83     0.28    29.49     9.32   -38.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.12    71.04R   37.40  
Stoke             1    0   -1      -0.77    28.55    -0.13    43.41     9.39   -11.49     0.01     0.04     0.15     0.56     3.22    15.99R    2.91  
Sunderland        1    0   -1      -1.35    18.34    -0.99    44.26     9.71   -11.55     0.01     0.06     0.31     0.90     4.11    15.07R    2.93  
West_Brom         1    0   -1      -1.57    15.71    -1.29    46.71    10.01    -8.88     0.05     0.19     0.67     1.73     7.34    10.58R    1.89  
Arsenal           1    0   -2      -2.11     8.46    -3.22    66.96    10.15    24.13     4.75    13.87    27.09    42.57    70.87     0.11R    0.01  
Cardiff           1    0   -2      -0.99    25.10    -1.43    36.07    10.03   -27.35     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.15     0.97    44.69R   14.76  
Hull              1    0   -2      -0.42    37.40    -0.26    32.04     9.29   -32.01     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.25    61.19R   25.21  
Swansea           1    0   -3      -0.64    32.88    -1.68    45.53     9.81   -11.82     0.01     0.09     0.42     1.23     5.49    12.71R    2.21  
Newcastle         1    0   -4      -0.49    36.39    -2.32    43.38    10.12   -18.03     0.02     0.09     0.32     0.91     3.93    18.98R    3.98  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 20 August 2013, Wigan 2 2 Doncaster; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Nott'm_Forest    3    9   +5       4.38    96.17     4.24    71.85    11.27    11.14     5.78    12.89    43.05    19.66P    0.88R    0.13  
Watford          3    7   +6       2.14    83.58     4.74    80.14    11.73    28.26    20.96    36.07    71.47    45.75P    0.19R    0.02  
Blackpool        3    7   +3       2.11    82.28     1.82    70.96    11.55    10.50     5.29    12.11    40.61    18.72P    1.27R    0.17  
Burnley          3    7   +3       2.06    82.02     1.73    68.34    11.31     6.72     3.16     7.79    31.92    12.90P    1.93R    0.27  
QPR              3    7   +2       1.76    77.75     0.40    74.55    11.90    14.88    10.12    19.93    52.67    28.98P    0.73R    0.10  
Leicester        3    7   +2       2.21    83.42     1.00    77.03    11.13    18.54    12.33    24.21    61.77    34.39P    0.23R    0.03  
Bournemouth      3    6   -3       3.26    90.75    -0.54    51.60    11.63   -24.34     0.11     0.36     3.51     0.79P   30.32R   10.26  
Reading          3    5   +1       0.16    52.21    -0.10    76.79    12.46    20.79    14.50    26.74    60.18    36.32P    0.59R    0.09  
Leeds_United     3    5   +1       1.15    69.88     1.35    62.51    11.33    -1.13     1.11     2.87    16.28     5.50P    6.08R    1.20  
Wigan            3    4   +3      -1.81    23.39     0.34    77.02    12.36    24.75    15.52    28.01    61.50    38.42P    0.56R    0.07  
Doncaster        3    4   +0       0.82    67.31     1.52    52.83    11.60   -15.18     0.17     0.51     4.24     1.25P   25.53R    7.96  
Derby            3    4   +0       0.21    56.37     0.40    62.26    11.21    -0.84     0.96     2.58    15.78     5.34P    6.30R    1.24  
Middlesbrough    3    4   +0       0.23    56.89     0.46    61.06    11.24    -2.55     0.74     2.04    13.45     4.39P    7.56R    1.64  
Huddersfield     3    4   +0       0.72    65.16     1.11    54.66    10.98   -12.23     0.15     0.49     4.79     1.23P   18.96R    5.07  
Ipswich          3    3   +1      -0.38    43.57     2.10    58.15    11.18    -4.24     0.39     1.20     8.77     2.69P   11.62R    2.76  
Brighton         3    3   -1      -1.42    27.04    -1.48    68.75    11.19     9.31     3.35     8.07    33.41    14.93P    1.81R    0.26  
Birmingham       3    3   -1      -1.43    27.01    -1.48    64.43    11.31     2.99     1.53     4.06    21.18     8.15P    4.32R    0.74  
Yeovil           3    3   -2       0.24    55.64     0.08    42.96    11.18   -32.90     0.02     0.04     0.61     0.12P   59.37R   30.81  
Bolton           3    2   -3      -1.84    23.41    -2.62    66.99    11.53     6.14     2.66     6.50    28.03    11.92P    3.06R    0.48  
Charlton         3    1   -2      -3.55     7.75    -2.66    58.55    11.19    -3.86     0.45     1.35     9.70     3.32P   11.09R    2.47  
Sheff_Wed        3    1   -2      -2.30    17.67    -0.88    53.65    11.02   -11.02     0.13     0.42     4.03     1.16P   21.53R    5.95  
Blackburn        3    1   -3      -3.02    10.83    -2.92    59.06    11.30    -3.96     0.52     1.53    10.28     3.41P   10.47R    2.42  
Barnsley         3    1   -5      -2.00    22.15    -3.25    47.90    10.66   -23.45     0.03     0.10     1.21     0.27P   40.55R   14.55  
Millwall         3    0   -5      -4.33     1.74    -5.37    49.14    10.63   -18.32     0.02     0.11     1.56     0.39P   35.05R   11.29  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 17 August 2013, Bristol_City 1 2 Wolverhampton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient    3    9   +8       3.98    94.49     6.62    72.83    11.59    15.29     3.52     9.90    43.98    17.25P    1.19R    0.05  
Peterborough     3    9   +4       3.44    91.76     1.59    90.20    12.82    42.89    38.45    59.69    88.14    67.92P    0.09R    0.01  
Wolverhampton    3    7   +5       1.47    74.87     2.70    89.14    12.22    42.78    33.78    56.67    87.89    67.00P    0.05R    0.00  
Walsall          3    7   +3       2.34    84.41     2.21    68.82    11.67     6.86     1.79     5.61    30.75    10.62P    2.79R    0.19  
Colchester       3    7   +2       3.20    92.33     2.52    59.74    11.39    -8.61     0.27     1.03     9.81     2.55P   11.91R    1.40  
Brentford        3    5   +2       0.27    54.42     1.08    72.32    11.52    14.84     2.90     8.94    42.56    17.14P    1.30R    0.07  
Rotherham        3    5   +1       1.73    77.40     2.48    51.04    12.07   -23.07     0.07     0.27     3.30     0.72P   36.27R    8.82  
MK_Dons          3    5   +1      -0.03    49.52    -0.43    75.99    11.55    19.63     5.45    14.70    55.13    25.46P    0.61R    0.03  
Bradford         3    4   +3       0.64    65.14     4.43    47.68    11.56   -23.01     0.02     0.09     1.70     0.31P   46.48R   12.46  
Crawley_Town     3    4   +0      -0.16    50.68    -0.02    57.83    11.61   -10.12     0.20     0.77     7.97     2.08P   16.36R    2.39  
Crewe            3    4   +0       0.14    55.76     0.50    54.12    11.50   -16.17     0.07     0.31     4.37     0.95P   25.59R    4.66  
Port_Vale        3    4   +0      -0.02    52.83     0.17    53.66    12.40   -16.90     0.15     0.53     5.29     1.43P   28.71R    6.21  
Sheff_Utd        3    4   -1      -0.99    35.55    -2.34    74.64    11.52    17.10     4.25    12.41    50.10    22.63P    0.86R    0.04  
Shrewsbury       3    4   -1       0.74    65.78     0.26    57.63    11.33   -10.00     0.15     0.59     7.12     1.75P   16.50R    2.36  
Preston          3    3   +0      -0.95    34.46     0.24    63.74    11.52     2.49     0.51     2.03    17.57     5.35P    6.67R    0.62  
Oldham           3    3   -1      -0.06    49.12     0.91    54.59    11.23   -13.03     0.05     0.31     4.37     0.91P   23.24R    3.81  
Swindon          3    3   -2      -1.59    23.99    -2.64    75.08    11.40    18.17     4.29    12.59    51.98    24.05P    0.68R    0.04  
Bristol_City     3    1   -2      -3.47     7.79    -2.51    68.13    13.13    10.81     2.17     6.71    31.79    13.22P    5.15R    0.67  
Tranmere         3    1   -3      -3.15    10.58    -3.04    59.38    11.49    -4.42     0.24     0.92     9.83     2.74P   12.66R    1.65  
Notts_County     3    1   -3      -2.38    18.47    -1.79    64.97    11.75     4.37     0.75     2.72    20.88     6.94P    5.99R    0.66  
Gillingham       3    1   -5      -1.96    22.03    -3.01    46.98    11.88   -26.34     0.02     0.10     1.49     0.33P   49.39R   15.13  
Stevenage        3    0   -3      -3.66     3.62    -2.30    52.39    11.34   -14.18     0.05     0.19     3.03     0.73P   29.80R    5.81  
Carlisle         3    0  -12      -3.10     6.95   -10.14    40.73    11.04   -47.89     0.00     0.01     0.21     0.03P   71.07R   32.26  
Coventry         3   -4   +4      -9.03     0.00     2.49    64.14    11.99    18.51     0.85     2.90    20.73     7.86P    6.62R    0.70  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 17 August 2013, Bury 3 0 Accrington_Stanley; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Oxford_Utd            3    9   +6       5.22    98.24     6.54    75.45    11.27    17.47    10.39    31.98    64.72    39.68P    0.21R    0.05  
Southend              3    9   +4       4.01    95.30     2.71    77.07    11.11    17.85    12.93    36.74    69.98    45.70P    0.12R    0.05  
Chesterfield          3    7   +4       2.57    87.10     3.53    79.11    11.06    23.91    17.26    44.77    76.55    54.14P    0.06R    0.02  
Exeter                3    7   +3       1.68    77.63     1.18    69.88    11.22     9.04     4.38    16.58    45.38    23.64P    0.88R    0.30  
Burton_Albion         3    7   +2       3.21    91.94     2.53    67.20    11.49     3.42     3.05    12.14    36.23    17.12P    1.80R    0.66  
Fleetwood_Town        3    6   +3       1.48    70.91     2.36    63.51    11.17     0.78     1.45     6.64    24.81    10.36P    3.45R    1.33  
Newport_County        3    6   +2       2.43    83.02     2.95    46.68    11.23   -28.95     0.06     0.32     2.17     0.62P   39.56R   24.54  
Scunthorpe            3    5   +2      -0.62    38.30    -0.30    76.11    12.09    20.58    13.47    35.79    65.94    44.96P    0.37R    0.14  
Rochdale              3    4   +2      -0.27    48.27     1.82    68.20    11.43     9.87     3.43    13.97    40.09    20.14P    1.53R    0.57  
Portsmouth            3    4   +0      -1.84    22.72    -2.66    80.48    12.08    27.86    23.10    50.32    78.48    59.55P    0.17R    0.05  
Dag_&_Red             3    4   +0       0.47    62.07     0.92    59.60    10.98    -4.89     0.56     3.15    14.83     5.41P    6.66R    2.88  
AFC_Wimbledon         3    4   -1       0.90    69.16     0.58    52.53    10.85   -17.76     0.12     0.79     4.90     1.41P   19.31R    9.73  
Mansfield             3    4   -1       1.14    72.87     0.93    53.16    11.55   -16.07     0.20     1.25     6.52     2.26P   19.44R   10.30  
York                  3    4   -1       0.27    57.23    -0.55    53.59    10.39   -13.79     0.12     0.81     4.98     1.52P   15.61R    7.26  
Bury                  3    3   +0      -1.67    22.69    -0.89    69.32    12.27    11.22     4.89    18.01    44.55    25.38P    1.63R    0.60  
Northampton           3    3   -1      -1.22    28.34    -1.26    61.23    11.16    -2.25     0.77     4.39    19.07     7.51P    5.31R    2.11  
Plymouth              3    3   -1      -0.39    43.55    -0.05    58.12    10.72    -5.80     0.30     2.16    11.55     4.01P    8.05R    3.41  
Wycombe               3    3   -1      -1.77    22.04    -1.95    58.69    10.85    -5.37     0.45     2.66    12.89     4.92P    7.30R    3.05  
Torquay               3    2   -2      -2.46    15.11    -2.53    58.60    10.94    -5.38     0.42     2.70    13.10     5.04P    7.44R    3.12  
Bristol_Rovers        3    1   -2      -2.55    15.57    -1.15    55.90    10.95    -8.37     0.22     1.67     8.79     3.17P   11.68R    5.10  
Cheltenham            3    1   -4      -3.23     8.59    -4.16    60.00    11.08    -3.71     0.55     3.56    15.97     6.49P    6.29R    2.59  
Morecambe             3    1   -4      -2.28    17.25    -2.66    56.06    10.92    -9.43     0.19     1.55     8.83     3.15P   11.48R    5.28  
Hartlepool            3    1   -4      -2.94    11.06    -3.81    63.81    11.63     2.34     1.64     7.70    26.70    13.00P    3.57R    1.43  
Accrington_Stanley    3    1   -6      -1.94    23.24    -4.07    49.58    10.88   -22.55     0.04     0.37     2.96     0.84P   28.09R   15.41  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 17 August 2013, Aldershot 0 1 Cambridge_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd     3    7   +5       2.68    90.89     4.52    72.81    11.06    16.08     4.59    34.52    10.38P    0.47R    0.04  
Barnet            3    7   +4       1.31    73.57     1.21    85.71    11.47    36.73    31.49    77.02    45.39P    0.03R    0.00  
Nuneaton          3    7   +3       2.91    90.87     3.00    61.44    10.70    -4.32     0.39     7.36     1.32P    4.99R    0.60  
Lincoln_City      3    7   +2       2.73    88.76     1.82    64.66    10.79    -0.40     0.98    12.13     2.66P    2.85R    0.25  
Alfreton_Town     3    6   +2       1.64    73.97     1.60    60.22    11.06    -7.66     0.38     6.62     1.19P    6.96R    0.89  
Kidderminster     3    6   +1       0.87    61.59    -0.62    81.93    10.75    29.59    18.22    67.11    31.40P    0.03R    0.00  
Southport         3    6   +0       2.43    82.53     0.95    60.76    11.14    -9.17     0.54     7.20     1.36P    6.78R    1.01  
Halifax           3    6   -1       2.76    86.83     0.68    52.11    12.43   -26.46     0.16     2.65     0.51P   26.53R    7.30  
Hereford          3    5   +2      -0.33    43.70     0.11    72.54    10.97    16.30     4.37    33.51    10.77P    0.49R    0.03  
Tamworth          3    5   +1       1.53    75.59     1.88    56.35    10.50   -11.64     0.08     2.70     0.41P   11.46R    1.70  
Forest_Green      3    4   +7      -0.96    36.45     5.45    74.02    10.89    24.96     5.82    39.51    13.76P    0.31R    0.03  
Braintree_Town    3    4   +1       0.09    54.75     1.42    60.15    11.00    -4.49     0.39     6.39     1.30P    6.89R    1.00  
Luton             3    4   +1      -1.61    25.14    -1.35    72.09    10.86    15.89     3.88    31.94    10.53P    0.52R    0.04  
Wrexham           3    4   +0      -1.58    26.33    -2.38    79.50    10.67    27.17    12.93    58.79    26.24P    0.07R    0.00  
Welling           3    4   +0       0.95    69.64     1.89    53.07    12.35   -17.94     0.18     3.05     0.60P   23.32R    6.05  
Grimsby           3    4   +0      -0.44    44.75    -0.50    77.14    10.76    23.02     8.71    49.94    19.40P    0.14R    0.01  
Woking            3    4   +0       0.04    54.11     0.33    57.45    10.89   -10.65     0.20     4.03     0.71P   10.51R    1.64  
Dartford          3    3   -4      -0.48    40.48    -2.88    57.92    10.75   -10.96     0.17     4.02     0.79P    9.55R    1.42  
Macclesfield      3    1   -2      -2.69    12.27    -1.36    61.73    10.88     0.80     0.46     7.99     1.82P    5.10R    0.75  
Hyde_United       3    1   -9      -2.28    18.41    -7.33    45.22    10.53   -37.61     0.00     0.21     0.03P   46.67R   14.61  
Gateshead         3    0   -4      -3.16     5.28    -2.41    56.81    10.97    -7.98     0.11     3.54     0.69P   11.57R    2.05  
Salisbury         3    0   -4      -2.74     7.49    -1.46    43.34    11.98   -32.17     0.02     0.51     0.08P   53.08R   21.91  
Chester           3    0   -7      -2.75     7.80    -4.30    38.20    11.34   -44.49     0.01     0.14     0.02P   70.99R   38.57  
Aldershot         3   -6   +2     -11.55     0.00    -0.28    73.50    11.44    35.38     5.94    39.13    18.62P    0.67R    0.08  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10