Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 20 August 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 19 August 2013, Man_City 4 0 Newcastle; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City          1    3   +4       0.65    63.58     2.30    77.43     9.81    42.36    24.22    50.37    69.28    81.64    94.40     0.00R    0.00  
Man_Utd           1    3   +3       0.85    67.32     1.73    82.18     9.58    53.67    46.79    70.41    83.76    91.39    97.80     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa       1    3   +2       2.32    91.82     3.25    47.84     9.90    -9.23     0.05     0.26     0.88     2.09     8.30     8.75R    1.42  
Chelsea           1    3   +2       0.57    62.31     0.22    73.66    10.01    34.30    14.41    33.61    53.36    69.19    88.62     0.01R    0.00  
West_Ham          1    3   +2       1.26    75.19     1.44    48.41     9.84    -7.51     0.05     0.29     0.91     2.27     9.26     7.46R    1.11  
Fulham            1    3   +1       1.65    82.04     1.01    51.43     9.99    -3.71     0.13     0.64     1.89     4.49    14.97     4.40R    0.52  
Liverpool         1    3   +1       1.01    71.13     0.12    67.58    10.11    22.48     5.16    14.99    28.95    45.03    72.83     0.08R    0.01  
Southampton       1    3   +1       1.82    84.40     1.30    47.65     9.95   -10.39     0.06     0.29     0.87     2.08     8.42     9.05R    1.39  
Tottenham         1    3   +1       0.82    67.00    -0.30    65.40    10.35    19.08     3.65    11.34    22.58    36.54    64.85     0.19R    0.02  
Everton           1    1   +0      -0.72    38.43    -0.52    59.66    10.05    11.71     0.99     3.86     9.22    17.65    42.06     0.64R    0.07  
Norwich           1    1   +0      -0.03    61.57     0.52    43.00     9.93   -16.27     0.01     0.06     0.24     0.76     3.62    19.32R    4.11  
Crystal_Palace    1    0   -1      -0.62    33.00     0.30    29.35     9.29   -39.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.12    71.91R   38.31  
Stoke             1    0   -1      -0.76    28.87    -0.12    43.31     9.38   -11.71     0.00     0.05     0.18     0.56     3.08    16.66R    2.98  
Sunderland        1    0   -1      -1.37    17.96    -1.01    44.20     9.66   -11.75     0.01     0.07     0.29     0.84     4.04    15.00R    2.93  
West_Brom         1    0   -1      -1.58    15.60    -1.30    46.60    10.08    -9.17     0.06     0.26     0.77     1.78     7.18    11.13R    1.98  
Arsenal           1    0   -2      -2.13     8.18    -3.25    66.58    10.22    23.49     4.38    13.31    26.07    41.40    69.56     0.11R    0.00  
Cardiff           1    0   -2      -1.00    24.81    -1.44    36.32    10.06   -26.92     0.00     0.02     0.06     0.18     1.04    43.91R   14.42  
Hull              1    0   -2      -0.41    37.69    -0.22    32.29     9.34   -31.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.30    60.18R   24.52  
Swansea           1    0   -3      -0.66    32.68    -1.73    45.54     9.77   -11.75     0.03     0.12     0.40     1.23     5.39    12.69R    2.27  
Newcastle         1    0   -4      -0.48    36.42    -2.30    43.56    10.08   -17.82     0.01     0.08     0.29     0.84     4.17    18.52R    3.94  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 20 August 2013, Wigan 2 2 Doncaster; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Nott'm_Forest    3    9   +5       4.35    96.08     4.20    71.98    11.28    11.28     5.83    12.94    43.54    19.61P    0.87R    0.12  
Watford          3    7   +6       2.11    83.23     4.69    80.24    11.89    28.43    20.97    36.60    71.65    46.19P    0.21R    0.03  
Blackpool        3    7   +3       2.06    81.61     1.75    71.26    11.50    10.98     5.42    12.08    41.63    19.00P    1.11R    0.14  
Burnley          3    7   +3       2.04    81.89     1.68    68.55    11.24     7.06     3.26     7.83    32.22    13.24P    1.81R    0.26  
QPR              3    7   +2       1.74    77.47     0.36    74.76    11.92    15.28    10.19    19.87    53.30    29.17P    0.65R    0.07  
Leicester        3    7   +2       2.19    83.14     0.97    76.93    11.31    18.37    12.33    24.22    61.29    34.48P    0.28R    0.03  
Bournemouth      3    6   -3       3.29    91.06    -0.49    51.38    11.60   -24.82     0.15     0.48     3.35     0.90P   30.88R   10.46  
Reading          3    5   +1       0.18    52.40    -0.07    76.82    12.46    20.92    14.32    26.50    60.31    36.33P    0.58R    0.07  
Leeds_United     3    5   +1       1.16    70.20     1.37    62.04    11.32    -1.86     0.95     2.62    15.36     5.15P    6.74R    1.35  
Wigan            3    4   +3      -1.86    22.73     0.26    77.48    12.38    25.36    15.95    28.61    63.04    39.77P    0.46R    0.05  
Doncaster        3    4   +0       0.86    67.91     1.58    52.92    11.68   -15.15     0.17     0.56     4.49     1.22P   25.38R    7.90  
Derby            3    4   +0       0.21    56.16     0.40    62.36    11.24    -0.69     1.03     2.68    15.82     5.37P    5.99R    1.12  
Middlesbrough    3    4   +0       0.27    57.36     0.51    60.82    11.17    -2.91     0.68     2.05    12.78     4.19P    7.85R    1.56  
Huddersfield     3    4   +0       0.75    65.81     1.15    54.78    11.00   -12.03     0.17     0.54     5.01     1.30P   18.71R    4.69  
Ipswich          3    3   +1      -0.38    43.74     2.10    58.17    11.12    -4.24     0.41     1.12     8.80     2.62P   11.48R    2.52  
Brighton         3    3   -1      -1.41    27.16    -1.47    68.69    11.18     9.23     3.17     7.82    32.77    14.31P    1.78R    0.29  
Birmingham       3    3   -1      -1.42    27.23    -1.46    64.18    11.32     2.58     1.36     3.71    20.19     7.48P    4.48R    0.82  
Yeovil           3    3   -2       0.25    55.61     0.10    42.79    11.13   -33.14     0.02     0.06     0.59     0.15P   60.02R   31.14  
Bolton           3    2   -3      -1.84    23.27    -2.61    66.87    11.49     5.97     2.52     6.34    27.59    11.57P    3.00R    0.52  
Charlton         3    1   -2      -3.54     7.51    -2.65    58.59    11.18    -3.80     0.43     1.32     9.50     3.08P   10.59R    2.42  
Sheff_Wed        3    1   -2      -2.28    17.70    -0.85    53.64    10.95   -10.97     0.12     0.40     4.11     1.07P   21.39R    5.84  
Blackburn        3    1   -3      -3.02    10.66    -2.92    58.98    11.23    -4.09     0.50     1.44     9.92     3.18P   10.44R    2.41  
Barnsley         3    1   -5      -1.99    22.37    -3.22    47.82    10.80   -23.62     0.03     0.08     1.22     0.29P   40.83R   15.21  
Millwall         3    0   -5      -4.35     1.63    -5.41    49.24    10.63   -18.13     0.01     0.09     1.53     0.34P   34.47R   10.97  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 17 August 2013, Bristol_City 1 2 Wolverhampton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient    3    9   +8       4.01    94.57     6.66    72.82    11.59    15.25     3.49     9.95    44.19    17.22P    1.23R    0.05  
Peterborough     3    9   +4       3.43    91.67     1.58    90.09    12.77    42.43    37.29    58.72    88.14    67.37P    0.07R    0.00  
Wolverhampton    3    7   +5       1.45    74.33     2.67    89.60    12.17    43.54    35.01    58.35    88.76    68.34P    0.05R    0.00  
Walsall          3    7   +3       2.38    84.78     2.25    68.53    11.61     6.39     1.57     4.98    29.93    10.11P    2.86R    0.20  
Colchester       3    7   +2       3.21    92.37     2.54    59.73    11.43    -8.56     0.20     0.98     9.81     2.34P   12.42R    1.52  
Brentford        3    5   +2       0.27    54.46     1.08    72.39    11.59    14.93     3.03     9.08    42.77    17.37P    1.32R    0.10  
Rotherham        3    5   +1       1.72    77.20     2.46    50.87    12.05   -23.33     0.03     0.22     3.16     0.69P   36.96R    8.97  
MK_Dons          3    5   +1      -0.03    49.57    -0.45    76.11    11.52    19.83     5.49    15.00    55.86    26.07P    0.58R    0.04  
Bradford         3    4   +3       0.61    64.62     4.39    47.90    11.67   -22.71     0.03     0.12     1.76     0.37P   45.82R   12.38  
Crawley_Town     3    4   +0      -0.17    50.46    -0.03    57.64    11.72   -10.40     0.18     0.77     8.14     1.99P   17.26R    2.57  
Crewe            3    4   +0       0.19    56.39     0.57    53.93    11.42   -16.41     0.05     0.28     4.14     0.92P   26.05R    4.76  
Port_Vale        3    4   +0      -0.02    53.05     0.17    53.47    12.29   -17.13     0.14     0.48     5.04     1.32P   28.93R    6.32  
Sheff_Utd        3    4   -1      -0.96    36.09    -2.29    74.53    11.59    16.99     4.49    12.28    50.03    22.59P    0.89R    0.02  
Shrewsbury       3    4   -1       0.73    65.47     0.23    57.79    11.29    -9.70     0.15     0.61     7.24     1.70P   16.09R    2.24  
Preston          3    3   +0      -0.91    34.83     0.28    63.60    11.39     2.30     0.50     1.92    17.06     5.09P    6.58R    0.68  
Oldham           3    3   -1      -0.08    48.88     0.90    54.90    11.23   -12.58     0.06     0.35     4.55     1.06P   22.72R    3.53  
Swindon          3    3   -2      -1.57    24.25    -2.62    74.68    11.46    17.55     4.12    12.07    50.62    23.04P    0.75R    0.03  
Bristol_City     3    1   -2      -3.46     8.02    -2.50    68.20    13.13    11.07     2.34     6.99    32.19    13.59P    5.02R    0.57  
Tranmere         3    1   -3      -3.18    10.12    -3.10    59.59    11.33    -4.08     0.22     0.89     9.70     2.69P   12.12R    1.48  
Notts_County     3    1   -3      -2.41    18.13    -1.81    65.11    11.80     4.62     0.77     2.95    21.41     7.16P    5.78R    0.60  
Gillingham       3    1   -5      -1.98    21.54    -3.03    47.30    11.79   -25.84     0.01     0.08     1.55     0.30P   48.17R   14.50  
Stevenage        3    0   -3      -3.68     3.58    -2.31    52.28    11.34   -14.36     0.05     0.22     3.07     0.75P   30.28R    5.86  
Carlisle         3    0  -12      -3.10     7.17   -10.11    40.60    11.00   -48.26     0.00     0.01     0.24     0.04P   71.65R   32.86  
Coventry         3   -4   +4      -9.04     0.00     2.48    64.15    11.88    18.46     0.78     2.70    20.64     7.88P    6.41R    0.70  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 17 August 2013, Bury 3 0 Accrington_Stanley; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Oxford_Utd            3    9   +6       5.20    98.21     6.53    75.46    11.20    17.57    10.50    32.36    65.18    40.04P    0.21R    0.05  
Southend              3    9   +4       4.01    95.36     2.71    76.94    11.05    17.64    12.77    36.44    69.82    45.25P    0.14R    0.03  
Chesterfield          3    7   +4       2.57    87.31     3.54    79.09    10.98    23.91    17.21    44.71    76.90    54.23P    0.07R    0.02  
Exeter                3    7   +3       1.68    77.47     1.18    69.94    11.23     9.17     4.56    17.05    45.26    23.92P    0.83R    0.30  
Burton_Albion         3    7   +2       3.23    91.82     2.54    66.90    11.34     2.86     2.77    11.50    35.09    16.14P    1.85R    0.70  
Fleetwood_Town        3    6   +3       1.47    70.88     2.34    63.62    11.06     1.01     1.35     6.82    24.80    10.64P    3.11R    1.19  
Newport_County        3    6   +2       2.46    83.67     3.00    46.52    11.18   -29.35     0.03     0.30     2.14     0.54P   40.15R   25.08  
Scunthorpe            3    5   +2      -0.63    38.02    -0.30    75.94    11.88    20.30    12.66    34.89    66.26    44.19P    0.33R    0.09  
Rochdale              3    4   +2      -0.29    47.68     1.78    68.01    11.46     9.66     3.45    13.94    39.49    20.29P    1.57R    0.58  
Portsmouth            3    4   +0      -1.79    23.43    -2.61    80.33    12.24    27.67    23.41    50.07    77.52    59.16P    0.19R    0.05  
Dag_&_Red             3    4   +0       0.49    62.10     0.94    59.64    10.99    -4.89     0.58     3.46    15.25     5.78P    6.47R    2.74  
AFC_Wimbledon         3    4   -1       0.88    68.76     0.57    52.81    10.79   -17.28     0.12     0.77     5.03     1.53P   18.54R    9.26  
Mansfield             3    4   -1       1.15    73.10     0.93    53.18    11.56   -15.92     0.18     1.28     6.55     2.26P   19.44R   10.17  
York                  3    4   -1       0.25    56.90    -0.57    53.95    10.47   -13.22     0.06     0.79     5.57     1.58P   15.10R    7.01  
Bury                  3    3   +0      -1.69    22.46    -0.92    69.47    12.23    11.57     5.31    18.40    45.04    25.92P    1.59R    0.62  
Northampton           3    3   -1      -1.22    28.24    -1.27    61.24    11.19    -2.22     0.86     4.74    19.15     7.98P    5.16R    2.11  
Plymouth              3    3   -1      -0.39    43.41    -0.05    57.88    10.66    -6.10     0.34     2.11    11.03     3.92P    8.09R    3.42  
Wycombe               3    3   -1      -1.75    22.50    -1.93    58.68    10.82    -5.47     0.48     2.58    12.92     4.77P    7.43R    3.13  
Torquay               3    2   -2      -2.46    15.04    -2.56    58.60    10.91    -5.31     0.41     2.67    13.20     4.93P    7.68R    3.22  
Bristol_Rovers        3    1   -2      -2.55    15.35    -1.17    55.90    11.03    -8.35     0.28     1.62     9.13     3.17P   12.04R    5.53  
Cheltenham            3    1   -4      -3.20     8.81    -4.12    59.73    11.01    -4.12     0.53     3.29    15.23     6.21P    6.61R    2.83  
Morecambe             3    1   -4      -2.29    17.12    -2.66    56.19    10.99    -9.24     0.25     1.74     9.35     3.33P   11.48R    5.26  
Hartlepool            3    1   -4      -2.92    11.12    -3.78    63.90    11.79     2.46     1.83     8.05    27.13    13.39P    3.80R    1.52  
Accrington_Stanley    3    1   -6      -1.96    22.77    -4.11    49.68    10.81   -22.36     0.04     0.41     2.96     0.84P   28.11R   15.09  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 17 August 2013, Aldershot 0 1 Cambridge_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd     3    7   +5       2.68    90.87     4.53    72.61    11.14    15.75     4.47    33.68     9.90P    0.53R    0.05  
Barnet            3    7   +4       1.27    73.38     1.13    86.21    11.45    37.63    33.18    78.14    47.01P    0.02R    0.00  
Nuneaton          3    7   +3       2.94    90.94     3.06    61.31    10.69    -4.56     0.34     7.22     1.33P    5.04R    0.62  
Lincoln_City      3    7   +2       2.73    88.53     1.81    65.15    10.94     0.44     1.01    13.27     2.99P    2.64R    0.29  
Alfreton_Town     3    6   +2       1.66    74.24     1.61    60.22    11.01    -7.73     0.39     6.60     1.30P    6.68R    0.94  
Kidderminster     3    6   +1       0.85    61.33    -0.66    82.00    10.84    29.77    18.17    67.05    31.34P    0.03R    0.00  
Southport         3    6   +0       2.40    82.09     0.90    61.09    11.10    -8.55     0.43     7.64     1.35P    6.04R    0.82  
Halifax           3    6   -1       2.77    86.81     0.71    52.30    12.43   -26.24     0.22     2.83     0.54P   26.06R    6.68  
Hereford          3    5   +2      -0.35    43.19     0.06    72.66    11.00    16.65     4.29    33.79    10.67P    0.46R    0.04  
Tamworth          3    5   +1       1.56    76.02     1.92    56.26    10.50   -11.86     0.08     2.67     0.39P   11.54R    1.70  
Forest_Green      3    4   +7      -0.97    36.08     5.44    74.40    10.86    25.56     5.93    40.44    14.52P    0.29R    0.03  
Braintree_Town    3    4   +1       0.11    55.17     1.46    59.81    11.03    -5.06     0.31     6.14     1.17P    7.42R    1.12  
Luton             3    4   +1      -1.61    25.07    -1.38    72.14    11.02    15.93     4.01    32.09    10.91P    0.56R    0.04  
Wrexham           3    4   +0      -1.59    25.99    -2.40    79.18    10.70    26.64    11.98    57.37    24.99P    0.06R    0.00  
Welling           3    4   +0       0.95    69.59     1.90    52.76    12.49   -18.52     0.21     3.12     0.67P   24.31R    6.49  
Grimsby           3    4   +0      -0.47    44.24    -0.55    77.08    10.76    22.95     8.63    49.41    19.17P    0.13R    0.01  
Woking            3    4   +0       0.05    54.52     0.37    57.31    10.93   -10.99     0.20     3.92     0.72P   10.64R    1.56  
Dartford          3    3   -4      -0.52    40.05    -2.94    58.04    10.84   -10.75     0.16     4.21     0.78P    9.30R    1.41  
Macclesfield      3    1   -2      -2.71    12.32    -1.36    61.99    10.95     1.17     0.50     8.52     2.00P    4.82R    0.58  
Hyde_United       3    1   -9      -2.27    18.67    -7.33    45.39    10.51   -37.24     0.00     0.24     0.03P   46.05R   14.24  
Gateshead         3    0   -4      -3.12     5.35    -2.35    56.52    10.93    -8.42     0.13     3.27     0.70P   12.04R    2.10  
Salisbury         3    0   -4      -2.73     7.40    -1.41    42.99    11.99   -32.98     0.01     0.47     0.07P   54.31R   22.66  
Chester           3    0   -7      -2.74     7.89    -4.28    38.17    11.35   -44.48     0.00     0.12     0.01P   70.47R   38.60  
Aldershot         3   -6   +2     -11.53     0.00    -0.23    73.26    11.23    34.89     5.34    37.80    17.44P    0.56R    0.03  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10