Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 19 August 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 19 August 2013, Man_City 4 0 Newcastle; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City          1    3   +4       0.64    63.35     2.28    77.50     9.69    42.54    24.64    50.49    69.51    82.04    94.56     0.00R    0.00  
Man_Utd           1    3   +3       0.84    67.20     1.69    82.13     9.62    53.67    46.57    70.04    83.54    91.20    97.83     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa       1    3   +2       2.32    91.79     3.25    47.91    10.02    -9.06     0.05     0.30     0.90     2.15     8.59     8.90R    1.41  
Chelsea           1    3   +2       0.55    61.90     0.19    73.74    10.01    34.33    14.20    34.06    53.84    69.52    88.66     0.01R    0.00  
West_Ham          1    3   +2       1.24    74.82     1.42    48.30     9.85    -7.71     0.05     0.28     0.96     2.32     9.24     7.70R    1.09  
Fulham            1    3   +1       1.64    82.02     1.01    51.54    10.03    -3.58     0.14     0.69     2.01     4.55    15.40     4.42R    0.59  
Liverpool         1    3   +1       1.03    71.42     0.13    67.74    10.21    22.81     5.38    15.40    29.26    45.41    73.14     0.08R    0.01  
Southampton       1    3   +1       1.80    84.02     1.28    47.70     9.93   -10.29     0.06     0.26     0.85     2.02     8.23     8.91R    1.43  
Tottenham         1    3   +1       0.82    67.03    -0.28    65.39    10.20    19.07     3.35    10.77    21.92    36.04    64.72     0.13R    0.00  
Everton           1    1   +0      -0.72    38.59    -0.52    59.38    10.04    11.37     0.93     3.60     8.76    16.77    40.95     0.65R    0.06  
Norwich           1    1   +0      -0.03    61.41     0.52    43.05     9.90   -16.22     0.00     0.08     0.24     0.73     3.50    19.12R    4.02  
Crystal_Palace    1    0   -1      -0.62    32.98     0.28    29.46     9.34   -39.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.15    71.19R   37.07  
Stoke             1    0   -1      -0.77    28.58    -0.13    43.69     9.35   -11.14     0.01     0.06     0.21     0.63     3.29    15.07R    2.57  
Sunderland        1    0   -1      -1.37    17.98    -1.01    44.44     9.72   -11.32     0.02     0.10     0.38     0.97     4.25    14.51R    2.78  
West_Brom         1    0   -1      -1.55    15.98    -1.28    46.37    10.01    -9.56     0.03     0.17     0.63     1.73     6.92    11.21R    2.02  
Arsenal           1    0   -2      -2.13     8.21    -3.25    66.66    10.21    23.72     4.53    13.49    26.28    41.71    69.96     0.12R    0.02  
Cardiff           1    0   -2      -0.98    25.18    -1.42    36.02     9.97   -27.38     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.16     0.94    44.88R   14.92  
Hull              1    0   -2      -0.39    38.10    -0.19    31.85     9.37   -32.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.24    62.19R   26.32  
Swansea           1    0   -3      -0.64    32.80    -1.69    45.62     9.80   -11.69     0.02     0.10     0.40     1.21     5.54    12.40R    2.09  
Newcastle         1    0   -4      -0.48    36.65    -2.28    43.44     9.97   -18.03     0.01     0.08     0.26     0.81     3.88    18.51R    3.60  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 17 August 2013, Barnsley 2 2 Charlton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Nott'm_Forest    3    9   +5       4.37    96.21     4.23    71.88    11.17    11.23     5.15    12.24    42.79    19.22P    0.78R    0.09  
Watford          3    7   +6       2.14    83.67     4.73    80.26    11.70    28.46    19.94    35.05    71.66    44.94P    0.13R    0.02  
Blackpool        3    7   +3       2.06    81.94     1.74    71.15    11.40    10.82     5.08    11.53    40.97    18.47P    1.15R    0.17  
Burnley          3    7   +3       2.01    81.37     1.65    68.33    11.19     6.75     2.92     7.16    31.27    12.23P    1.75R    0.23  
QPR              3    7   +2       1.69    76.85     0.29    75.25    11.98    15.94    10.47    20.61    54.77    30.42P    0.62R    0.09  
Leicester        3    7   +2       2.22    83.27     1.01    76.81    11.14    18.23    11.21    22.91    60.74    33.11P    0.28R    0.02  
Bournemouth      3    6   -3       3.31    91.24    -0.47    51.37    11.72   -24.84     0.12     0.37     3.46     0.80P   30.52R   10.37  
Reading          3    5   +1       0.14    51.83    -0.12    76.98    12.52    21.20    14.30    26.50    60.34    36.20P    0.57R    0.08  
Leeds_United     3    5   +1       1.12    69.55     1.31    62.01    11.29    -1.82     0.95     2.57    15.03     5.07P    6.25R    1.15  
Derby            3    4   +0       0.18    55.63     0.35    62.25    11.17    -0.71     0.88     2.49    15.22     5.04P    6.00R    1.14  
Middlesbrough    3    4   +0       0.24    56.97     0.47    61.07    11.06    -2.53     0.65     1.95    12.99     4.09P    7.11R    1.31  
Huddersfield     3    4   +0       0.73    65.44     1.13    55.16    10.89   -11.42     0.16     0.55     5.09     1.30P   17.13R    4.19  
Wigan            2    3   +3      -0.78    32.34     1.42    79.40    12.65    27.85    19.93    34.01    67.90    44.71P    0.36R    0.05  
Ipswich          3    3   +1      -0.35    43.92     2.14    58.15    11.24    -4.22     0.38     1.15     8.73     2.56P   11.80R    2.64  
Doncaster        2    3   +0       0.59    60.36     0.47    50.94    11.80   -18.71     0.14     0.46     3.34     0.99P   31.28R   10.98  
Brighton         3    3   -1      -1.36    27.92    -1.42    68.51    11.09     8.98     2.90     7.28    31.67    13.67P    1.68R    0.26  
Birmingham       3    3   -1      -1.43    27.06    -1.48    64.08    11.14     2.49     1.21     3.44    19.38     7.09P    4.19R    0.67  
Yeovil           3    3   -2       0.27    55.99     0.11    42.77    11.05   -33.24     0.00     0.03     0.54     0.10P   59.37R   30.37  
Bolton           3    2   -3      -1.83    23.51    -2.59    67.08    11.54     6.29     2.44     6.39    28.21    11.78P    2.78R    0.48  
Charlton         3    1   -2      -3.54     7.49    -2.64    58.61    11.22    -3.77     0.46     1.36     9.35     3.10P   10.42R    2.30  
Sheff_Wed        3    1   -2      -2.23    18.29    -0.78    53.63    11.01   -11.03     0.12     0.37     3.97     1.05P   20.92R    5.80  
Blackburn        3    1   -3      -3.04    10.58    -2.95    59.10    11.17    -3.89     0.53     1.39    10.02     3.41P    9.81R    2.04  
Barnsley         3    1   -5      -1.97    22.45    -3.20    47.68    10.79   -23.87     0.03     0.10     1.18     0.29P   40.75R   14.84  
Millwall         3    0   -5      -4.35     1.70    -5.39    49.20    10.55   -18.17     0.04     0.11     1.40     0.35P   34.35R   10.71  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 17 August 2013, Bristol_City 1 2 Wolverhampton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient    3    9   +8       3.98    94.43     6.61    72.86    11.62    15.31     3.52     9.93    44.29    17.25P    1.17R    0.05  
Peterborough     3    9   +4       3.43    91.73     1.57    90.01    12.81    42.44    37.37    58.90    88.10    67.48P    0.06R    0.00  
Wolverhampton    3    7   +5       1.45    74.44     2.66    89.60    12.16    43.60    34.86    57.88    88.79    68.34P    0.04R    0.00  
Walsall          3    7   +3       2.35    84.36     2.22    68.84    11.69     6.95     1.72     5.61    30.95    10.61P    2.83R    0.19  
Colchester       3    7   +2       3.21    92.50     2.53    59.80    11.40    -8.47     0.23     0.99    10.03     2.43P   12.11R    1.49  
Brentford        3    5   +2       0.29    54.93     1.11    71.98    11.61    14.27     2.92     8.77    41.28    16.79P    1.50R    0.09  
Rotherham        3    5   +1       1.70    76.82     2.44    50.98    12.17   -23.03     0.07     0.29     3.30     0.78P   36.65R    9.10  
MK_Dons          3    5   +1      -0.04    49.23    -0.46    76.22    11.51    19.96     5.39    15.02    56.29    26.23P    0.65R    0.05  
Bradford         3    4   +3       0.62    64.89     4.38    47.89    11.65   -22.56     0.02     0.10     1.73     0.34P   45.76R   12.07  
Crawley_Town     3    4   +0      -0.13    51.20     0.03    57.66    11.76   -10.40     0.23     0.86     8.08     2.11P   16.98R    2.55  
Crewe            3    4   +0       0.17    56.33     0.55    54.00    11.48   -16.35     0.06     0.28     4.23     0.84P   26.14R    4.32  
Port_Vale        3    4   +0      -0.01    53.15     0.19    53.38    12.41   -17.36     0.14     0.47     5.12     1.35P   29.37R    6.40  
Sheff_Utd        3    4   -1      -0.98    35.51    -2.33    74.60    11.53    17.06     4.39    12.45    50.06    22.64P    0.78R    0.04  
Shrewsbury       3    4   -1       0.78    66.39     0.30    57.68    11.18    -9.89     0.10     0.51     7.00     1.64P   16.02R    2.16  
Preston          3    3   +0      -0.91    35.06     0.29    63.56    11.41     2.25     0.51     1.97    17.02     5.20P    6.57R    0.59  
Oldham           3    3   -1      -0.06    49.23     0.92    54.54    11.36   -13.10     0.06     0.27     4.55     0.96P   23.70R    4.02  
Swindon          3    3   -2      -1.60    23.91    -2.65    74.78    11.40    17.66     4.08    12.08    50.89    23.14P    0.70R    0.03  
Bristol_City     3    1   -2      -3.43     8.04    -2.47    68.40    13.00    11.33     2.48     6.95    32.10    13.36P    4.59R    0.52  
Tranmere         3    1   -3      -3.19    10.06    -3.11    59.64    11.49    -3.94     0.30     0.98    10.16     2.95P   12.24R    1.61  
Notts_County     3    1   -3      -2.37    18.43    -1.77    64.78    11.72     4.09     0.71     2.63    20.34     6.60P    6.10R    0.63  
Gillingham       3    1   -5      -2.01    21.22    -3.08    47.77    11.87   -25.14     0.01     0.07     1.66     0.31P   46.52R   13.80  
Stevenage        3    0   -3      -3.67     3.68    -2.31    52.12    11.33   -14.72     0.03     0.18     3.01     0.73P   30.94R    6.15  
Carlisle         3    0  -12      -3.08     7.19   -10.08    40.37    11.03   -48.69     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.03P   72.37R   33.47  
Coventry         3   -4   +4      -9.06     0.00     2.44    64.31    11.81    18.73     0.79     2.81    20.74     7.89P    6.21R    0.66  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 17 August 2013, Bury 3 0 Accrington_Stanley; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Oxford_Utd            3    9   +6       5.22    98.27     6.53    75.66    11.22    17.81    10.47    32.58    65.60    40.35P    0.21R    0.07  
Southend              3    9   +4       4.02    95.48     2.72    77.25    11.10    18.14    13.44    37.55    70.26    46.09P    0.11R    0.04  
Chesterfield          3    7   +4       2.57    87.10     3.52    79.23    11.00    24.11    17.52    45.15    77.01    54.66P    0.07R    0.01  
Exeter                3    7   +3       1.68    77.71     1.18    69.94    11.12     9.14     4.35    16.67    45.13    23.55P    0.79R    0.29  
Burton_Albion         3    7   +2       3.21    91.90     2.51    67.09    11.38     3.17     2.92    11.78    35.82    16.72P    1.82R    0.70  
Fleetwood_Town        3    6   +3       1.47    71.10     2.35    63.38    11.09     0.64     1.31     6.40    23.99     9.94P    3.42R    1.28  
Newport_County        3    6   +2       2.46    83.55     3.01    46.34    11.11   -29.61     0.04     0.27     1.98     0.51P   40.93R   25.49  
Scunthorpe            3    5   +2      -0.62    38.52    -0.29    75.95    11.93    20.32    12.94    35.00    66.02    44.36P    0.34R    0.10  
Rochdale              3    4   +2      -0.25    48.24     1.84    68.13    11.55     9.87     3.52    14.26    40.36    20.47P    1.53R    0.54  
Portsmouth            3    4   +0      -1.79    23.75    -2.59    80.03    12.02    27.12    22.19    48.70    77.22    58.30P    0.17R    0.07  
Dag_&_Red             3    4   +0       0.49    62.23     0.95    59.37    11.01    -5.23     0.54     3.12    14.64     5.45P    6.95R    2.85  
AFC_Wimbledon         3    4   -1       0.89    68.91     0.58    52.63    10.82   -17.58     0.11     0.81     5.10     1.49P   19.13R    9.58  
Mansfield             3    4   -1       1.16    73.00     0.95    53.24    11.55   -15.96     0.21     1.28     6.75     2.29P   18.98R    9.81  
York                  3    4   -1       0.27    57.02    -0.55    53.67    10.44   -13.67     0.10     0.76     5.33     1.59P   15.45R    7.26  
Bury                  3    3   +0      -1.71    22.50    -0.94    69.63    12.26    11.83     5.50    18.68    45.16    25.91P    1.49R    0.59  
Northampton           3    3   -1      -1.22    28.29    -1.27    61.17    11.19    -2.27     0.83     4.64    18.85     7.91P    5.17R    2.07  
Plymouth              3    3   -1      -0.42    42.75    -0.10    58.22    10.65    -5.68     0.33     2.19    11.54     4.22P    7.52R    3.17  
Wycombe               3    3   -1      -1.79    21.94    -1.98    58.94    10.83    -5.02     0.45     2.82    13.55     5.32P    6.90R    2.86  
Torquay               3    2   -2      -2.44    15.35    -2.53    58.55    11.03    -5.35     0.44     2.66    13.02     4.87P    7.92R    3.47  
Bristol_Rovers        3    1   -2      -2.56    15.30    -1.17    55.90    10.97    -8.31     0.22     1.58     8.98     3.02P   11.69R    5.29  
Cheltenham            3    1   -4      -3.19     8.87    -4.10    59.72    10.96    -4.10     0.52     3.25    15.08     6.00P    6.35R    2.65  
Morecambe             3    1   -4      -2.28    17.16    -2.67    56.07    10.99    -9.51     0.27     1.57     9.00     3.12P   11.57R    5.28  
Hartlepool            3    1   -4      -2.95    10.83    -3.84    63.94    11.64     2.52     1.72     7.90    26.79    13.08P    3.48R    1.40  
Accrington_Stanley    3    1   -6      -1.97    22.81    -4.10    49.61    10.76   -22.39     0.04     0.35     2.81     0.77P   27.98R   15.13  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 17 August 2013, Aldershot 0 1 Cambridge_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd     3    7   +5       2.68    90.89     4.54    72.64    11.08    15.92     4.49    33.96    10.13P    0.47R    0.03  
Barnet            3    7   +4       1.27    72.89     1.15    86.17    11.54    37.55    33.20    78.05    46.95P    0.01R    0.00  
Nuneaton          3    7   +3       2.91    90.85     2.99    61.50    10.59    -4.29     0.34     7.21     1.32P    4.96R    0.62  
Lincoln_City      3    7   +2       2.72    88.69     1.79    65.07    10.89     0.24     1.04    13.14     3.01P    2.73R    0.32  
Alfreton_Town     3    6   +2       1.65    74.02     1.62    60.19    11.03    -7.88     0.34     6.41     1.28P    6.98R    0.94  
Kidderminster     3    6   +1       0.83    61.16    -0.66    81.87    10.84    29.60    17.88    67.05    31.02P    0.04R    0.00  
Southport         3    6   +0       2.42    82.57     0.94    61.03    11.09    -8.70     0.40     7.64     1.45P    6.11R    0.90  
Halifax           3    6   -1       2.77    86.94     0.70    52.15    12.50   -26.30     0.15     2.77     0.51P   26.61R    7.24  
Hereford          3    5   +2      -0.34    43.58     0.09    72.68    10.95    16.59     4.40    34.21    10.93P    0.47R    0.02  
Tamworth          3    5   +1       1.51    75.38     1.86    56.53    10.43   -11.44     0.12     2.76     0.47P   10.97R    1.73  
Forest_Green      3    4   +7      -0.95    36.52     5.46    74.01    10.90    24.92     5.65    39.25    13.77P    0.31R    0.02  
Braintree_Town    3    4   +1       0.10    55.02     1.44    59.90    10.89    -4.89     0.27     5.97     1.14P    7.10R    1.03  
Luton             3    4   +1      -1.61    25.07    -1.35    71.78    10.93    15.50     3.78    30.88    10.04P    0.61R    0.06  
Wrexham           3    4   +0      -1.57    26.13    -2.38    79.24    10.74    26.72    12.27    58.02    25.51P    0.06R    0.00  
Welling           3    4   +0       0.97    70.06     1.92    52.88    12.24   -18.44     0.18     2.89     0.61P   23.84R    5.90  
Grimsby           3    4   +0      -0.46    44.23    -0.54    77.22    10.80    23.13     8.85    50.22    19.59P    0.15R    0.01  
Woking            3    4   +0       0.07    54.62     0.39    57.39    10.89   -10.92     0.18     3.88     0.68P   10.58R    1.54  
Dartford          3    3   -4      -0.51    39.82    -2.93    58.05    10.85   -10.66     0.19     4.33     0.84P    9.25R    1.45  
Macclesfield      3    1   -2      -2.71    12.08    -1.37    62.17    10.94     1.49     0.55     8.88     2.14P    4.80R    0.60  
Hyde_United       3    1   -9      -2.27    18.73    -7.30    45.23    10.59   -37.68     0.00     0.26     0.03P   46.78R   15.17  
Gateshead         3    0   -4      -3.12     5.62    -2.33    56.51    10.87    -8.57     0.12     3.23     0.64P   12.00R    2.09  
Salisbury         3    0   -4      -2.72     7.50    -1.42    42.92    11.82   -32.91     0.01     0.36     0.07P   54.66R   22.45  
Chester           3    0   -7      -2.76     7.70    -4.31    38.46    11.39   -44.06     0.00     0.11     0.02P   69.84R   37.80  
Aldershot         3   -6   +2     -11.54     0.00    -0.26    73.30    11.36    35.07     5.58    38.53    17.88P    0.65R    0.07  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10