Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 18 August 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 18 August 2013, Chelsea 2 0 Hull; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_Utd           1    3   +3       0.79    66.30     1.61    82.08     9.66    53.11    49.54    72.11    84.49    91.59    97.87     0.00R    0.00  
Aston_Villa       1    3   +2       2.27    91.17     3.15    47.76    10.03    -9.13     0.06     0.30     0.97     2.40     8.64     9.28R    1.53  
Chelsea           1    3   +2       0.59    62.58     0.27    73.85     9.98    34.22    16.05    37.23    56.47    71.27    89.10     0.02R    0.00  
West_Ham          1    3   +2       1.30    76.03     1.52    48.48     9.82    -7.23     0.06     0.35     1.02     2.60     9.63     7.58R    1.03  
Fulham            1    3   +1       1.60    81.27     0.94    51.31     9.94    -3.74     0.15     0.73     2.05     4.57    14.80     4.55R    0.54  
Liverpool         1    3   +1       1.08    72.46     0.21    67.48    10.16    22.21     5.42    16.24    30.38    46.07    72.79     0.08R    0.01  
Southampton       1    3   +1       1.74    83.16     1.19    47.65     9.97   -10.10     0.07     0.30     0.92     2.33     8.46     9.26R    1.48  
Tottenham         1    3   +1       0.80    66.55    -0.35    65.07    10.24    18.45     3.80    11.36    22.48    36.14    64.12     0.21R    0.01  
Everton           1    1   +0      -0.77    36.96    -0.59    59.30    10.08    11.16     1.10     4.09     9.56    17.60    41.11     0.75R    0.06  
Norwich           1    1   +0       0.02    63.04     0.59    43.07     9.87   -15.80     0.02     0.07     0.27     0.79     3.63    19.47R    3.92  
Man_City          0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    74.82    10.07    36.15    18.42    41.28    60.22    74.40    90.84     0.01R    0.00  
Newcastle         0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    45.70    10.32   -12.32     0.05     0.27     0.79     1.87     6.80    13.74R    2.56  
Crystal_Palace    1    0   -1      -0.60    33.45     0.35    29.35     9.39   -38.55     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.02     0.14    72.30R   38.12  
Stoke             1    0   -1      -0.82    27.54    -0.21    43.33     9.43   -11.49     0.01     0.05     0.24     0.62     3.13    16.81R    2.93  
Sunderland        1    0   -1      -1.32    18.73    -0.94    44.37     9.68   -11.16     0.01     0.10     0.38     1.01     4.38    14.81R    2.65  
West_Brom         1    0   -1      -1.50    16.84    -1.19    46.65    10.08    -8.88     0.05     0.24     0.76     1.91     7.48    11.28R    1.99  
Arsenal           1    0   -2      -2.07     8.83    -3.15    66.70    10.28    23.65     5.20    15.12    28.41    43.29    70.11     0.14R    0.01  
Cardiff           1    0   -2      -1.04    23.97    -1.52    36.46    10.07   -26.35     0.00     0.03     0.08     0.22     1.18    43.74R   14.23  
Hull              1    0   -2      -0.42    37.42    -0.27    31.70     9.33   -32.54     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.02     0.24    62.97R   26.59  
Swansea           1    0   -3      -0.60    33.70    -1.61    45.46     9.81   -11.67     0.02     0.13     0.48     1.30     5.58    12.99R    2.33  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 17 August 2013, Barnsley 2 2 Charlton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Nott'm_Forest    3    9   +5       4.39    96.31     4.25    71.74    11.05    10.96     4.91    11.55    42.36    18.30P    0.81R    0.08  
Watford          3    7   +6       2.15    83.65     4.76    80.28    11.78    28.43    19.99    35.52    71.69    45.48P    0.17R    0.01  
Blackpool        3    7   +3       2.06    81.69     1.75    70.98    11.43    10.56     4.96    11.25    40.24    18.01P    1.16R    0.17  
Burnley          3    7   +3       2.02    81.64     1.66    68.41    11.27     6.85     3.04     7.50    31.66    12.69P    1.82R    0.26  
QPR              3    7   +2       1.72    77.40     0.33    74.92    11.96    15.51     9.80    19.87    53.61    29.19P    0.64R    0.08  
Leicester        3    7   +2       2.23    83.44     1.02    76.74    11.26    18.11    11.25    23.41    60.37    33.50P    0.29R    0.03  
Bournemouth      3    6   -3       3.27    91.00    -0.55    52.15    11.60   -23.50     0.13     0.45     3.72     0.97P   27.83R    9.06  
Reading          3    5   +1       0.15    52.07    -0.11    76.92    12.45    21.02    13.90    26.00    60.37    35.95P    0.57R    0.09  
Leeds_United     3    5   +1       1.11    69.08     1.31    62.08    11.34    -1.72     0.90     2.47    15.51     5.07P    6.57R    1.31  
Derby            3    4   +0       0.20    56.09     0.37    62.11    11.10    -0.97     0.78     2.35    15.04     4.98P    6.07R    1.10  
Middlesbrough    3    4   +0       0.24    56.85     0.46    60.75    11.09    -2.99     0.62     1.78    12.44     3.93P    7.68R    1.53  
Huddersfield     3    4   +0       0.73    65.27     1.11    55.02    10.87   -11.62     0.15     0.53     4.95     1.32P   17.41R    4.42  
Wigan            2    3   +3      -0.78    32.11     1.40    79.99    12.71    28.81    21.57    35.63    69.72    46.39P    0.34R    0.05  
Ipswich          3    3   +1      -0.36    43.78     2.14    58.11    11.08    -4.26     0.32     1.09     8.57     2.55P   11.44R    2.48  
Doncaster        2    3   +0       0.60    60.57     0.48    50.64    11.80   -19.07     0.16     0.42     3.24     0.89P   32.08R   11.56  
Brighton         3    3   -1      -1.37    27.72    -1.42    68.61    11.00     9.13     2.80     7.19    32.13    13.58P    1.54R    0.24  
Birmingham       3    3   -1      -1.44    27.13    -1.48    64.00    11.23     2.39     1.30     3.47    19.46     7.29P    4.31R    0.75  
Yeovil           3    3   -2       0.26    56.03     0.11    42.90    11.08   -33.07     0.01     0.04     0.60     0.11P   59.05R   30.17  
Bolton           3    2   -3      -1.84    23.34    -2.63    67.19    11.51     6.43     2.48     6.31    28.48    11.78P    2.83R    0.44  
Charlton         3    1   -2      -3.52     7.69    -2.60    58.55    11.23    -3.78     0.39     1.30     9.58     3.22P   10.88R    2.41  
Sheff_Wed        3    1   -2      -2.24    18.09    -0.81    53.46    10.99   -11.23     0.10     0.38     3.93     1.14P   21.63R    6.08  
Blackburn        3    1   -3      -3.07    10.45    -2.98    58.86    11.19    -4.22     0.37     1.31     9.80     3.07P   10.36R    2.25  
Barnsley         3    1   -5      -1.97    22.63    -3.20    47.98    10.71   -23.33     0.02     0.08     1.22     0.24P   39.92R   14.49  
Millwall         3    0   -5      -4.33     1.68    -5.37    49.04    10.52   -18.43     0.03     0.10     1.34     0.35P   34.60R   10.96  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 17 August 2013, Bristol_City 1 2 Wolverhampton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient    3    9   +8       3.98    94.37     6.62    72.89    11.54    15.40     3.41     9.87    43.94    17.07P    1.10R    0.05  
Peterborough     3    9   +4       3.40    91.56     1.52    90.63    12.74    43.64    38.88    60.40    89.10    68.80P    0.06R    0.00  
Wolverhampton    3    7   +5       1.43    74.15     2.64    89.58    12.28    43.52    34.76    57.81    88.43    68.06P    0.06R    0.00  
Walsall          3    7   +3       2.36    84.66     2.21    68.62    11.73     6.59     1.57     5.17    30.33    10.28P    3.04R    0.24  
Colchester       3    7   +2       3.23    92.46     2.55    59.54    11.44    -8.89     0.28     0.96     9.85     2.38P   12.42R    1.41  
Brentford        3    5   +2       0.29    54.94     1.12    72.35    11.51    14.86     2.83     8.80    42.57    16.94P    1.19R    0.08  
Rotherham        3    5   +1       1.70    76.91     2.44    50.80    12.21   -23.45     0.07     0.27     3.30     0.71P   37.36R    9.36  
MK_Dons          3    5   +1      -0.04    49.18    -0.45    75.90    11.42    19.39     4.94    14.29    54.92    25.43P    0.57R    0.02  
Bradford         3    4   +3       0.61    64.78     4.39    47.88    11.57   -22.72     0.03     0.10     1.59     0.30P   45.59R   12.06  
Crawley_Town     3    4   +0      -0.14    51.00     0.02    57.58    11.52   -10.48     0.18     0.63     7.68     1.87P   16.84R    2.36  
Crewe            3    4   +0       0.16    56.09     0.56    53.89    11.54   -16.56     0.07     0.33     4.40     1.01P   26.26R    4.84  
Port_Vale        3    4   +0      -0.03    52.75     0.16    53.67    12.32   -16.95     0.12     0.49     5.26     1.32P   28.34R    6.03  
Sheff_Utd        3    4   -1      -0.98    35.66    -2.32    74.63    11.60    17.05     4.10    12.39    50.68    22.86P    0.90R    0.05  
Shrewsbury       3    4   -1       0.77    66.14     0.29    57.45    11.29   -10.22     0.10     0.52     6.93     1.70P   16.69R    2.47  
Preston          3    3   +0      -0.91    35.01     0.27    63.60    11.46     2.34     0.48     1.92    17.08     5.09P    6.55R    0.68  
Oldham           3    3   -1      -0.06    49.23     0.92    54.85    11.24   -12.67     0.06     0.28     4.48     0.95P   22.77R    3.64  
Swindon          3    3   -2      -1.57    24.14    -2.61    74.99    11.52    17.96     4.23    12.43    51.52    23.86P    0.72R    0.05  
Bristol_City     3    1   -2      -3.43     8.13    -2.44    67.94    13.10    10.47     2.03     6.47    31.45    12.70P    5.21R    0.68  
Tranmere         3    1   -3      -3.16    10.43    -3.07    59.29    11.49    -4.58     0.20     1.00     9.74     2.96P   12.58R    1.60  
Notts_County     3    1   -3      -2.39    18.45    -1.80    64.94    11.76     4.33     0.73     2.68    20.77     6.70P    6.05R    0.64  
Gillingham       3    1   -5      -2.01    21.35    -3.06    47.40    11.73   -25.67     0.02     0.08     1.45     0.29P   47.72R   14.25  
Stevenage        3    0   -3      -3.66     3.61    -2.29    52.22    11.31   -14.46     0.05     0.19     2.94     0.66P   30.38R    6.19  
Carlisle         3    0  -12      -3.10     7.03   -10.13    40.73    11.06   -47.88     0.00     0.02     0.27     0.05P   71.23R   32.58  
Coventry         3   -4   +4      -9.05     0.00     2.46    64.41    12.00    18.98     0.84     2.90    21.32     8.02P    6.36R    0.72  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 17 August 2013, Bury 3 0 Accrington_Stanley; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Oxford_Utd            3    9   +6       5.21    98.28     6.54    75.57    11.25    17.79    10.68    32.51    65.36    40.28P    0.22R    0.07  
Southend              3    9   +4       4.02    95.47     2.71    77.17    11.07    18.00    13.09    37.32    70.71    46.15P    0.15R    0.04  
Chesterfield          3    7   +4       2.57    87.09     3.53    79.16    11.11    23.97    17.72    45.38    76.68    54.60P    0.06R    0.02  
Exeter                3    7   +3       1.69    77.70     1.18    69.72    11.19     8.78     4.36    16.37    44.58    23.34P    0.94R    0.29  
Burton_Albion         3    7   +2       3.23    91.96     2.55    66.85    11.56     2.79     3.08    12.12    35.34    16.78P    2.19R    0.83  
Fleetwood_Town        3    6   +3       1.45    70.60     2.32    63.55    11.07     0.85     1.31     6.63    24.75    10.30P    3.26R    1.27  
Newport_County        3    6   +2       2.47    83.80     3.02    46.60    11.14   -29.11     0.05     0.34     2.09     0.57P   39.88R   25.24  
Scunthorpe            3    5   +2      -0.59    38.78    -0.24    75.22    12.04    19.26    11.90    33.13    63.77    42.46P    0.43R    0.14  
Rochdale              3    4   +2      -0.27    48.17     1.80    68.08    11.42     9.81     3.23    13.87    40.04    20.23P    1.60R    0.57  
Portsmouth            3    4   +0      -1.81    23.25    -2.62    80.19    12.27    27.42    22.99    49.63    77.04    58.82P    0.15R    0.04  
Dag_&_Red             3    4   +0       0.49    62.35     0.94    59.47    11.09    -5.14     0.63     3.37    15.10     5.83P    6.85R    2.81  
AFC_Wimbledon         3    4   -1       0.90    69.03     0.58    52.77    10.82   -17.37     0.09     0.77     5.14     1.49P   18.97R    9.43  
Mansfield             3    4   -1       1.13    72.66     0.91    53.21    11.62   -15.98     0.23     1.30     6.78     2.30P   19.79R   10.38  
York                  3    4   -1       0.26    56.90    -0.58    54.01    10.40   -13.15     0.12     0.84     5.60     1.70P   14.52R    6.71  
Bury                  3    3   +0      -1.70    22.35    -0.93    69.86    12.25    12.11     5.56    19.03    46.22    26.45P    1.52R    0.61  
Northampton           3    3   -1      -1.26    27.70    -1.32    61.34    11.23    -2.03     0.90     4.79    19.51     8.06P    5.22R    2.07  
Plymouth              3    3   -1      -0.39    43.53    -0.05    57.95    10.62    -6.07     0.28     2.15    11.21     3.94P    8.01R    3.35  
Wycombe               3    3   -1      -1.78    22.21    -1.97    58.84    10.87    -5.15     0.45     2.76    13.43     5.12P    7.19R    2.99  
Torquay               3    2   -2      -2.45    15.12    -2.54    58.68    10.90    -5.20     0.48     2.77    13.17     5.02P    7.47R    3.28  
Bristol_Rovers        3    1   -2      -2.56    15.43    -1.18    56.04    11.04    -8.14     0.27     1.65     9.40     3.23P   11.85R    5.35  
Cheltenham            3    1   -4      -3.21     8.79    -4.13    59.77    11.07    -4.00     0.54     3.36    15.48     6.32P    6.73R    2.92  
Morecambe             3    1   -4      -2.27    17.25    -2.64    55.95    10.89    -9.65     0.22     1.48     8.74     2.98P   11.90R    5.54  
Hartlepool            3    1   -4      -2.92    10.88    -3.78    63.88    11.72     2.38     1.78     8.02    26.87    13.18P    3.65R    1.44  
Accrington_Stanley    3    1   -6      -1.97    22.88    -4.11    49.77    10.76   -22.17     0.04     0.42     3.01     0.85P   27.45R   14.62  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 17 August 2013, Aldershot 0 1 Cambridge_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd     3    7   +5       2.68    90.88     4.52    72.88    11.04    16.16     4.69    34.48    10.53P    0.45R    0.03  
Barnet            3    7   +4       1.28    73.19     1.18    85.74    11.53    36.83    31.69    76.87    45.19P    0.02R    0.00  
Nuneaton          3    7   +3       2.92    90.80     3.01    61.30    10.63    -4.54     0.39     6.96     1.29P    5.21R    0.65  
Lincoln_City      3    7   +2       2.71    88.49     1.78    65.11    10.88     0.38     0.97    13.20     2.88P    2.51R    0.28  
Alfreton_Town     3    6   +2       1.65    74.10     1.63    60.17    11.03    -7.72     0.35     6.60     1.19P    6.84R    1.03  
Kidderminster     3    6   +1       0.87    61.66    -0.63    81.92    10.88    29.64    18.52    66.73    31.54P    0.02R    0.00  
Southport         3    6   +0       2.43    82.67     0.93    60.96    11.15    -8.72     0.46     7.52     1.42P    6.43R    0.89  
Halifax           3    6   -1       2.76    86.71     0.69    52.36    12.49   -25.90     0.23     2.97     0.57P   25.85R    6.77  
Hereford          3    5   +2      -0.37    42.83     0.05    72.67    11.03    16.56     4.55    33.91    11.04P    0.46R    0.05  
Tamworth          3    5   +1       1.54    75.61     1.90    56.43    10.54   -11.55     0.11     2.87     0.47P   11.50R    1.70  
Forest_Green      3    4   +7      -0.95    36.19     5.43    74.20    11.08    25.25     5.94    40.16    14.14P    0.32R    0.03  
Braintree_Town    3    4   +1       0.11    55.24     1.46    59.85    11.00    -5.01     0.31     6.11     1.16P    7.35R    1.08  
Luton             3    4   +1      -1.63    24.74    -1.39    72.12    10.92    15.95     3.91    31.73    10.71P    0.52R    0.04  
Wrexham           3    4   +0      -1.58    26.27    -2.38    79.08    10.67    26.39    12.04    57.29    24.80P    0.08R    0.00  
Welling           3    4   +0       0.97    70.10     1.91    53.00    12.43   -18.20     0.13     3.03     0.59P   23.55R    6.06  
Grimsby           3    4   +0      -0.48    44.07    -0.55    77.33    10.70    23.30     8.94    50.62    19.93P    0.12R    0.01  
Woking            3    4   +0       0.07    54.53     0.39    57.19    10.91   -11.25     0.15     3.68     0.64P   10.94R    1.69  
Dartford          3    3   -4      -0.50    40.22    -2.91    58.14    10.74   -10.66     0.17     4.12     0.81P    9.08R    1.48  
Macclesfield      3    1   -2      -2.69    12.17    -1.34    61.52    10.96     0.40     0.43     8.03     1.81P    5.34R    0.73  
Hyde_United       3    1   -9      -2.26    18.85    -7.29    45.17    10.55   -37.69     0.00     0.22     0.03P   46.62R   14.60  
Gateshead         3    0   -4      -3.15     5.48    -2.39    56.66    10.90    -8.30     0.09     3.34     0.58P   11.75R    2.05  
Salisbury         3    0   -4      -2.74     7.54    -1.45    43.12    12.06   -32.63     0.01     0.47     0.06P   54.00R   22.31  
Chester           3    0   -7      -2.74     7.76    -4.31    38.27    11.31   -44.13     0.00     0.12     0.01P   70.54R   38.48  
Aldershot         3   -6   +2     -11.53     0.00    -0.26    73.51    11.36    35.44     5.95    38.99    18.61P    0.50R    0.03  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10