Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 16 August 2013 at 22:30:01 GMT

Premier League    (Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal           0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    72.30    10.40    34.93    13.24    29.70    46.51    61.86    84.10     0.03R    0.00  
Aston_Villa       0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    43.17    10.21   -17.77     0.02     0.10     0.31     0.76     3.60    19.93R    4.34  
Cardiff           0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    38.77    10.69   -24.92     0.03     0.08     0.22     0.53     2.06    35.26R   10.82  
Chelsea           0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    73.59    10.30    37.03    15.83    33.95    51.54    66.82    86.86     0.03R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace    0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    29.64     9.68   -44.23     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.18    71.04R   38.24  
Everton           0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    60.90    10.44    13.52     1.70     5.32    11.32    20.13    44.80     0.66R    0.04  
Fulham            0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    49.07    10.30    -6.73     0.12     0.48     1.24     2.82    10.14     7.64R    1.23  
Hull              0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    32.48     9.72   -34.53     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.06     0.37    59.67R   25.01  
Liverpool         0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    66.98    10.50    24.34     5.32    14.23    26.13    40.52    68.65     0.13R    0.01  
Man_City          0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    75.53    10.18    39.66    20.45    41.70    59.65    73.54    90.39     0.01R    0.00  
Man_Utd           0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    80.16     9.98    51.95    38.81    61.62    76.56    86.21    95.99     0.00R    0.00  
Newcastle         0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    45.91    10.40   -13.28     0.05     0.23     0.64     1.54     6.29    13.75R    2.62  
Norwich           0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    42.88    10.18   -18.07     0.01     0.09     0.29     0.78     3.45    20.59R    4.44  
Southampton       0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    45.13    10.32   -14.28     0.04     0.14     0.53     1.38     5.39    14.79R    3.06  
Stoke             0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    44.43     9.76   -12.23     0.01     0.09     0.32     0.82     3.94    14.80R    2.66  
Sunderland        0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    46.58    10.26   -10.20     0.05     0.23     0.71     1.73     6.94    11.68R    2.16  
Swansea           0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    47.56    10.15    -8.44     0.06     0.29     0.88     2.00     7.62     9.65R    1.65  
Tottenham         0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    65.08    10.66    21.25     4.09    11.04    21.06    33.72    61.51     0.27R    0.03  
West_Brom         0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    49.44    10.52    -6.61     0.11     0.48     1.46     3.26    11.34     7.76R    1.38  
West_Ham          0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    46.29    10.24   -11.39     0.04     0.22     0.62     1.51     6.38    12.32R    2.32  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Friday 16 August 2013, Doncaster 2 0 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Watford          2    6   +6       2.34    86.42     4.41    79.91    12.10    27.26    17.30    32.31    69.14    42.23P    0.19R    0.03  
Blackpool        2    6   +3       2.44    86.97     1.76    71.74    11.86    11.14     5.39    12.37    42.25    19.13P    1.14R    0.15  
Nott'm_Forest    2    6   +2       2.96    91.73     1.55    68.12    11.43     5.05     2.40     6.60    30.08    11.74P    2.10R    0.29  
Burnley          2    4   +1       1.16    74.90     0.84    67.01    11.74     5.19     2.26     5.81    27.35    10.68P    2.89R    0.44  
Derby            2    4   +1       1.41    79.52     1.19    64.13    11.58     0.75     1.33     3.66    19.70     6.87P    4.57R    0.80  
QPR              2    4   +1       0.49    62.04    -0.12    73.61    12.42    15.05     7.68    16.54    48.68    25.54P    0.99R    0.16  
Reading          2    4   +1       0.75    68.14     0.23    77.53    12.87    21.37    14.10    26.58    60.88    36.57P    0.62R    0.09  
Leeds_United     2    4   +1       1.72    84.24     1.67    63.22    11.69    -0.72     1.17     3.18    17.89     6.14P    5.65R    1.07  
Leicester        2    4   +1       0.72    66.96     0.20    74.75    11.54    16.73     7.41    17.18    52.73    26.79P    0.53R    0.07  
Wigan            1    3   +4       1.07    71.62     3.13    84.14    13.10    34.77    30.47    47.17    78.29    56.98P    0.19R    0.03  
Ipswich          2    3   +2       0.56    60.12     2.50    59.41    11.48    -3.67     0.40     1.37    10.68     3.29P    9.90R    2.20  
Doncaster        2    3   +0       0.62    61.01     0.53    51.09    11.82   -18.82     0.11     0.34     3.17     0.79P   29.99R   10.23  
Middlesbrough    2    3   +0       0.59    60.36     0.45    61.35    11.51    -2.86     0.70     2.04    13.87     4.49P    7.30R    1.46  
Birmingham       2    3   +0      -0.07    46.62    -0.47    66.60    11.66     5.06     2.03     5.48    26.07    10.36P    2.97R    0.43  
Yeovil           2    3   +0       0.99    68.54     1.09    44.57    11.66   -31.08     0.04     0.10     1.12     0.29P   52.40R   24.68  
Bournemouth      2    3   -4       1.24    73.30    -2.16    47.36    12.05   -31.04     0.06     0.18     1.90     0.46P   43.28R   18.48  
Bolton           2    2   +0      -0.73    36.54     0.02    70.48    11.91    12.46     4.09    10.25    38.58    17.45P    1.66R    0.26  
Huddersfield     2    1   -1      -1.05    35.58    -0.04    52.15    11.16   -15.00     0.03     0.23     3.15     0.76P   25.14R    7.46  
Blackburn        3    1   -3      -3.10    10.33    -3.02    59.06    11.27    -4.14     0.39     1.17     9.82     3.11P    9.80R    2.12  
Brighton         2    0   -2      -3.05     4.66    -2.47    66.72    11.47     7.78     1.96     5.28    26.51    10.91P    2.70R    0.41  
Sheff_Wed        2    0   -2      -2.17    10.42    -1.20    53.43    11.26   -12.12     0.12     0.35     3.86     0.99P   21.85R    6.13  
Charlton         2    0   -2      -3.14     4.59    -2.59    58.98    11.50    -3.81     0.49     1.44    10.12     3.39P   10.35R    2.25  
Millwall         2    0   -4      -2.88     5.41    -4.22    51.61    11.02   -16.13     0.04     0.21     2.69     0.66P   26.42R    7.69  
Barnsley         2    0   -5      -1.68    16.15    -3.27    48.45    11.06   -23.22     0.03     0.13     1.49     0.37P   37.38R   13.06  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 11 August 2013, Coventry 5 4 Bristol_City; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient    2    6   +7       2.47    86.90     5.80    70.65    11.88    13.28     2.54     7.17    35.15    12.93P    1.93R    0.14  
Peterborough     2    6   +3       2.68    88.36     2.11    90.02    13.09    45.58    37.24    56.96    86.66    65.77P    0.12R    0.01  
Walsall          2    6   +3       2.92    90.70     2.51    69.68    11.92     7.61     1.98     5.88    32.13    11.02P    2.56R    0.20  
Colchester       2    6   +2       3.02    91.62     1.64    58.78    11.59   -11.40     0.23     0.82     8.44     2.03P   14.02R    1.72  
Bradford         2    4   +4       1.69    86.61     4.96    49.69    11.90   -21.90     0.04     0.15     2.19     0.46P   39.39R   10.15  
Wolverhampton    2    4   +4       0.05    54.30     1.96    87.18    12.66    42.03    27.43    47.84    83.19    59.61P    0.12R    0.01  
Brentford        2    4   +2       0.93    70.90     1.50    73.32    11.86    15.94     3.77    10.20    43.69    18.27P    1.22R    0.08  
Crawley_Town     2    4   +1       1.54    81.65     1.51    61.05    11.88    -6.35     0.40     1.36    12.11     3.19P   10.65R    1.43  
MK_Dons          2    4   +1       0.28    58.66    -0.54    76.67    11.80    20.28     6.09    15.77    55.14    26.51P    0.50R    0.03  
Oldham           2    3   +0       0.56    59.44     0.46    55.32    11.56   -14.09     0.11     0.39     5.07     1.12P   21.54R    3.54  
Swindon          2    3   +0      -0.07    46.63    -0.43    78.65    11.59    23.93     7.53    19.28    62.21    31.79P    0.33R    0.01  
Sheff_Utd        2    3   -1      -0.06    46.56    -1.49    76.53    11.84    19.91     6.05    15.26    54.96    26.02P    0.69R    0.03  
Rotherham        2    2   +0      -0.25    46.58     0.88    47.05    12.33   -29.62     0.05     0.15     1.75     0.41P   48.84R   16.12  
Preston          2    2   +0      -0.65    37.87     0.13    63.88    11.53     2.08     0.58     1.97    16.57     4.97P    6.20R    0.58  
Bristol_City     2    1   -1      -2.35    13.37    -2.00    70.41    13.63    13.68     3.89     9.48    36.79    16.50P    4.03R    0.49  
Crewe            2    1   -1      -1.47    26.01    -0.46    51.47    11.61   -19.67     0.04     0.16     2.61     0.51P   33.14R    7.28  
Port_Vale        2    1   -1      -1.28    32.34    -0.25    52.10    12.72   -18.60     0.11     0.43     4.12     1.10P   32.75R    8.57  
Tranmere         2    1   -2      -1.81    21.76    -2.09    62.05    11.72    -1.53     0.42     1.59    13.49     4.05P    8.73R    1.06  
Shrewsbury       2    1   -3      -1.01    37.24    -1.86    53.90    11.54   -16.00     0.08     0.30     3.77     0.82P   25.64R    4.84  
Stevenage        2    0   -2      -2.40     8.50    -1.40    54.64    11.64   -12.44     0.08     0.33     4.51     1.04P   23.64R    4.22  
Notts_County     2    0   -3      -2.17    12.10    -2.00    65.28    11.98     4.14     0.85     2.92    20.61     6.99P    5.62R    0.64  
Gillingham       2    0   -5      -1.93    12.51    -3.42    46.88    12.12   -28.06     0.02     0.09     1.50     0.33P   49.15R   16.02  
Carlisle         2    0   -8      -2.28    11.41    -7.15    44.57    11.50   -40.08     0.00     0.03     0.69     0.11P   57.72R   20.95  
Coventry         2   -7   +0      -9.99     0.00    -0.36    60.62    12.22    11.28     0.48     1.47    12.66     4.46P   11.49R    1.87  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 10 August 2013, AFC_Wimbledon 1 0 Wycombe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Oxford_Utd            2    6   +4       3.47    95.22     4.38    71.77    11.34    12.54     6.66    22.66    52.10    29.67P    0.58R    0.20  
Fleetwood_Town        2    6   +4       3.02    92.43     3.60    66.41    11.29     4.35     2.68    11.47    33.94    16.29P    1.96R    0.64  
Chesterfield          2    6   +4       2.88    91.33     3.44    78.98    11.16    23.28    18.81    45.90    76.06    54.68P    0.07R    0.02  
Southend              2    6   +2       2.90    92.01     1.46    75.09    11.27    15.52    11.03    32.37    63.28    40.39P    0.24R    0.06  
Scunthorpe            2    4   +2       0.30    59.70     0.47    78.16    12.18    23.39    19.19    43.72    72.13    52.60P    0.26R    0.09  
Burton_Albion         2    4   +1       1.43    80.34     1.26    64.25    11.60     0.40     2.07     8.79    27.79    12.87P    3.39R    1.23  
AFC_Wimbledon         2    4   +1       1.66    84.05     1.61    54.79    10.94   -14.57     0.19     1.41     7.33     2.39P   14.20R    6.34  
Exeter                2    4   +1       0.69    66.62     0.15    67.89    11.37     6.65     3.72    14.13    38.66    20.10P    1.43R    0.49  
Rochdale              2    3   +2       0.14    51.10     1.88    68.86    11.55    10.58     4.51    16.59    42.30    22.84P    1.27R    0.45  
Newport_County        2    3   +1       0.87    66.01     2.12    44.27    11.40   -32.15     0.03     0.25     1.56     0.44P   48.22R   31.64  
Northampton           2    3   +1      -0.43    38.39    -0.16    63.45    11.35     1.11     1.61     7.57    24.97    11.68P    3.46R    1.26  
Dag_&_Red             2    3   +0       0.30    54.37     0.07    58.52    11.14    -7.22     0.53     3.12    13.19     5.23P    8.19R    3.40  
Wycombe               2    3   +0       0.05    48.90    -0.31    62.18    11.10    -1.31     1.10     5.67    21.14     9.01P    4.15R    1.57  
York                  2    3   -1       0.58    60.42    -0.59    54.32    10.70   -13.48     0.16     1.14     6.51     2.13P   14.39R    6.36  
Torquay               2    2   +0      -1.04    28.46    -0.47    61.89    11.13    -0.29     1.03     5.54    20.91     9.10P    4.29R    1.66  
Bristol_Rovers        2    1   -1      -1.16    33.72    -0.12    58.26    11.36    -5.95     0.53     3.23    13.52     5.32P    8.85R    3.78  
Morecambe             2    1   -1      -1.60    24.27    -0.84    58.20    11.17    -5.43     0.57     2.96    12.88     5.12P    8.51R    3.44  
Cheltenham            2    1   -2      -1.62    23.01    -1.87    63.25    11.21     1.27     1.36     6.89    24.28    11.19P    3.54R    1.23  
Mansfield             2    1   -2      -0.84    39.95    -0.49    49.01    11.63   -21.37     0.09     0.57     3.50     1.07P   31.09R   17.42  
Accrington_Stanley    2    1   -3      -1.38    29.96    -2.44    52.05    11.00   -17.90     0.11     0.76     4.76     1.49P   20.62R    9.70  
Portsmouth            2    1   -3      -2.58    11.75    -4.27    77.36    12.46    22.66    18.00    41.70    69.33    50.76P    0.32R    0.09  
Bury                  2    0   -3      -2.53     7.88    -2.68    65.80    12.45     5.51     3.49    12.56    33.56    18.17P    3.41R    1.45  
Plymouth              2    0   -3      -2.29     8.36    -2.39    54.32    10.69   -10.68     0.15     1.10     6.46     2.20P   14.02R    6.11  
Hartlepool            2    0   -4      -2.61     6.91    -3.82    64.71    11.99     3.10     2.37     9.90    29.87    15.27P    3.52R    1.36  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 14 August 2013, Welling 2 2 Cambridge_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Southport         2    6   +2       3.32    93.36     2.16    62.97    11.25    -5.60     0.65     9.81     1.81P    4.51R    0.67  
Forest_Green      2    4   +8       0.25    60.05     6.20    75.65    11.16    26.56     7.32    43.53    15.80P    0.21R    0.02  
Cambridge_Utd     2    4   +4       0.36    62.48     2.38    68.34    11.19    10.21     1.96    20.62     5.43P    1.32R    0.14  
Barnet            2    4   +3      -0.14    50.55     0.52    83.73    11.94    35.42    25.24    70.10    38.77P    0.04R    0.00  
Braintree_Town    2    4   +2       1.34    82.86     2.23    61.78    11.28    -3.34     0.61     8.20     1.72P    5.41R    0.82  
Hereford          2    4   +2       0.28    58.88     0.44    73.53    11.23    17.38     5.21    35.78    11.58P    0.46R    0.04  
Grimsby           2    4   +1       1.09    73.72     0.73    80.01    10.88    26.84    13.34    58.83    24.98P    0.06R    0.00  
Nuneaton          2    4   +1       1.78    85.42     1.75    59.13    10.80    -7.50     0.26     4.71     0.89P    7.48R    1.16  
Lincoln_City      2    4   +1       1.17    76.52     0.91    62.87    11.00    -1.82     0.59     9.16     1.93P    3.97R    0.56  
Tamworth          2    4   +1       1.71    83.54     1.62    56.50    10.64   -11.95     0.11     2.79     0.44P   10.99R    1.77  
Alfreton_Town     2    3   +1       0.77    63.94     1.85    59.79    11.22    -6.56     0.38     6.05     1.16P    7.45R    1.22  
Luton             2    3   +1      -0.64    34.44    -0.48    73.76    11.06    18.17     5.25    36.15    12.33P    0.36R    0.03  
Kidderminster     2    3   +0      -0.66    34.15    -1.48    79.75    11.18    28.16    13.54    57.93    25.12P    0.11R    0.01  
Wrexham           2    3   +0      -1.15    24.64    -2.33    79.62    10.84    26.66    12.67    57.52    25.22P    0.06R    0.01  
Dartford          2    3   -2       0.66    61.73    -1.20    60.93    11.11    -6.37     0.43     6.78     1.35P    6.01R    1.00  
Halifax           2    3   -3       1.45    77.25    -0.75    48.18    12.81   -34.12     0.12     1.59     0.31P   37.86R   13.92  
Welling           2    1   -1      -0.86    39.40     0.70    49.71    12.78   -22.93     0.12     1.99     0.39P   32.41R   10.99  
Woking            2    1   -2      -1.50    26.55    -1.49    54.06    11.12   -16.29     0.09     2.11     0.36P   17.17R    3.81  
Macclesfield      2    0   -2      -2.89     4.97    -2.21    60.67    11.07    -1.64     0.32     6.70     1.44P    6.03R    0.97  
Gateshead         2    0   -3      -1.95    12.34    -1.61    58.48    11.12    -6.46     0.21     4.65     0.96P    8.79R    1.55  
Salisbury         2    0   -3      -2.04    10.83    -1.67    43.83    12.30   -32.37     0.04     0.58     0.11P   50.56R   21.90  
Chester           2    0   -5      -1.47    18.30    -2.50    42.87    12.03   -37.11     0.01     0.42     0.06P   53.95R   24.32  
Hyde_United       2    0   -9      -2.01    12.34    -7.49    45.50    10.71   -37.98     0.01     0.28     0.05P   44.60R   15.07  
Aldershot         2   -6   +3      -9.50     0.00     1.71    78.12    11.45    42.64    11.52    53.74    27.77P    0.20R    0.03  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10