Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 13 August 2013 at 22:30:01 GMT

Premier League    (Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal           0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    71.74    10.43    33.94    12.13    27.82    44.58    60.10    82.58     0.04R    0.00  
Aston_Villa       0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    43.05    10.07   -17.98     0.03     0.09     0.25     0.70     3.41    19.90R    4.37  
Cardiff           0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    38.92    10.62   -24.65     0.02     0.05     0.19     0.45     2.09    34.89R   10.21  
Chelsea           0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    73.52    10.37    36.94    15.90    34.11    51.52    66.50    86.59     0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace    0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    29.51     9.62   -44.33     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.15    71.19R   38.81  
Everton           0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    61.08    10.30    13.78     1.51     5.09    11.31    20.35    45.47     0.53R    0.02  
Fulham            0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    49.27    10.37    -6.41     0.12     0.52     1.33     3.07    10.72     7.80R    1.28  
Hull              0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    32.54     9.68   -34.57     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.37    59.81R   24.79  
Liverpool         0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    67.04    10.46    24.45     5.48    14.54    26.93    40.96    68.82     0.14R    0.01  
Man_City          0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    75.56    10.10    39.82    20.78    42.23    59.95    73.95    90.57     0.01R    0.00  
Man_Utd           0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    80.21     9.96    52.12    39.55    62.20    76.70    86.43    96.05     0.00R    0.00  
Newcastle         0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    46.06    10.51   -13.10     0.04     0.25     0.73     1.77     6.69    13.78R    2.73  
Norwich           0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    42.95    10.18   -18.07     0.01     0.08     0.33     0.78     3.46    20.43R    4.64  
Southampton       0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    44.94    10.27   -14.70     0.03     0.18     0.49     1.23     5.20    15.44R    3.07  
Stoke             0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    44.45     9.74   -12.21     0.01     0.08     0.30     0.82     4.00    15.01R    2.87  
Sunderland        0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    46.61    10.10   -10.14     0.04     0.21     0.66     1.65     6.52    11.35R    2.05  
Swansea           0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    47.69    10.18    -8.32     0.07     0.29     0.90     2.11     8.01     9.54R    1.58  
Tottenham         0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    65.10    10.59    21.43     4.10    11.48    21.59    34.06    61.54     0.23R    0.01  
West_Brom         0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    49.52    10.47    -6.44     0.13     0.57     1.52     3.35    11.32     7.66R    1.32  
West_Ham          0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    46.29    10.22   -11.56     0.06     0.21     0.68     1.63     6.45    12.23R    2.24  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 11 August 2013, Leicester 0 0 Leeds_United; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Watford          2    6   +6       2.32    85.93     4.40    80.07    12.10    27.47    17.17    31.98    68.92    41.99P    0.18R    0.01  
Blackpool        2    6   +3       2.37    86.24     1.66    71.70    11.89    11.12     4.90    11.65    41.59    18.27P    1.05R    0.13  
Nott'm_Forest    2    6   +2       3.01    92.02     1.62    68.17    11.54     5.16     2.55     6.56    29.58    11.59P    1.94R    0.24  
Burnley          2    4   +1       1.17    75.12     0.87    66.66    11.72     4.67     2.05     5.45    25.70     9.89P    2.78R    0.39  
Derby            2    4   +1       1.44    79.80     1.24    64.38    11.59     1.19     1.23     3.56    19.70     6.67P    4.01R    0.63  
QPR              2    4   +1       0.49    61.96    -0.10    73.67    12.40    15.09     7.63    16.28    47.92    25.23P    0.91R    0.14  
Reading          2    4   +1       0.76    68.25     0.25    77.83    12.85    21.89    14.09    26.89    61.06    36.96P    0.52R    0.06  
Leeds_United     2    4   +1       1.73    84.06     1.68    63.12    11.76    -0.80     1.14     3.08    17.24     5.85P    5.34R    1.02  
Leicester        2    4   +1       0.71    66.77     0.18    74.90    11.65    16.90     7.59    17.21    52.35    26.82P    0.43R    0.05  
Wigan            1    3   +4       1.02    70.67     3.05    84.30    13.12    35.06    30.25    46.71    78.10    56.52P    0.20R    0.02  
Ipswich          2    3   +2       0.55    59.66     2.48    59.35    11.45    -3.76     0.51     1.48    10.34     3.17P    9.00R    1.74  
Middlesbrough    2    3   +0       0.59    60.44     0.46    61.48    11.65    -2.66     0.71     2.18    14.06     4.67P    7.07R    1.35  
Birmingham       2    3   +0      -0.07    46.42    -0.49    66.89    11.71     5.49     2.06     5.59    26.75    10.53P    2.57R    0.39  
Yeovil           2    3   +0       1.01    69.10     1.14    44.35    11.72   -31.45     0.04     0.10     0.99     0.23P   51.54R   23.30  
Bournemouth      2    3   -4       1.24    73.23    -2.18    47.21    12.09   -31.27     0.07     0.24     1.88     0.52P   42.46R   17.00  
Bolton           2    2   +0      -0.75    36.00    -0.02    71.21    11.98    13.52     4.56    11.00    40.28    18.64P    1.29R    0.16  
Blackburn        2    1   -1      -1.72    23.18    -0.99    62.50    11.67     0.94     0.92     2.64    16.12     5.74P    5.84R    1.02  
Huddersfield     2    1   -1      -1.06    35.48    -0.06    51.92    11.26   -15.27     0.09     0.29     2.96     0.74P   24.75R    7.06  
Brighton         2    0   -2      -3.05     4.62    -2.47    66.58    11.37     7.58     1.84     4.93    25.01    10.31P    2.52R    0.37  
Sheff_Wed        2    0   -2      -2.16    10.43    -1.20    53.50    11.31   -11.99     0.11     0.40     3.86     1.03P   20.51R    5.49  
Charlton         2    0   -2      -3.12     4.76    -2.57    58.97    11.46    -3.81     0.37     1.27     9.86     3.18P    9.70R    2.00  
Doncaster        1    0   -2      -1.02    24.80    -1.46    46.64    12.08   -25.55     0.04     0.15     1.72     0.44P   43.21R   17.98  
Millwall         2    0   -4      -2.88     5.31    -4.23    51.74    11.13   -15.80     0.07     0.26     2.71     0.73P   24.70R    6.85  
Barnsley         2    0   -5      -1.67    16.21    -3.25    48.03    11.04   -23.72     0.02     0.09     1.31     0.28P   37.48R   12.60  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 11 August 2013, Coventry 5 4 Bristol_City; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient    2    6   +7       2.50    87.17     5.84    70.79    11.86    13.52     2.51     7.12    35.75    13.01P    1.94R    0.13  
Peterborough     2    6   +3       2.67    88.28     2.08    90.50    13.10    46.78    38.25    58.18    87.54    66.81P    0.10R    0.01  
Walsall          2    6   +3       2.94    90.93     2.51    69.70    12.06     7.54     2.04     6.12    32.26    11.45P    2.69R    0.23  
Colchester       2    6   +2       3.03    91.80     1.64    58.55    11.46   -11.80     0.18     0.71     7.82     1.84P   14.36R    1.98  
Bradford         2    4   +4       1.70    86.35     4.97    49.91    12.05   -21.40     0.05     0.20     2.63     0.56P   38.89R    9.88  
Wolverhampton    2    4   +4       0.04    54.25     1.96    87.37    12.65    42.28    27.58    48.08    83.19    59.78P    0.11R    0.00  
Brentford        2    4   +2       0.91    70.60     1.49    73.56    11.81    16.34     3.83    10.44    44.70    18.72P    1.06R    0.05  
Crawley_Town     2    4   +1       1.53    81.46     1.50    61.36    12.07    -5.91     0.52     1.58    13.02     3.61P   10.74R    1.39  
MK_Dons          2    4   +1       0.31    59.31    -0.51    76.25    11.82    19.59     5.71    14.76    53.68    25.21P    0.56R    0.03  
Oldham           2    3   +0       0.54    59.16     0.45    55.20    11.40   -14.26     0.08     0.33     4.67     1.05P   21.79R    3.68  
Swindon          2    3   +0      -0.06    46.84    -0.43    78.66    11.55    24.02     7.34    19.05    62.23    31.88P    0.27R    0.02  
Sheff_Utd        2    3   -1      -0.04    46.96    -1.48    76.47    11.94    19.85     5.88    15.05    54.43    25.52P    0.64R    0.03  
Rotherham        2    2   +0      -0.23    47.14     0.91    46.83    12.55   -30.21     0.05     0.17     1.89     0.45P   49.50R   17.05  
Preston          2    2   +0      -0.66    37.57     0.13    63.89    11.59     2.07     0.53     1.90    16.72     5.05P    6.34R    0.62  
Bristol_City     2    1   -1      -2.33    13.45    -1.98    70.36    13.56    13.52     3.59     9.36    36.78    16.30P    3.82R    0.49  
Crewe            2    1   -1      -1.48    25.84    -0.48    51.22    11.53   -20.10     0.03     0.16     2.44     0.53P   33.66R    7.32  
Port_Vale        2    1   -1      -1.26    32.64    -0.23    51.74    12.60   -19.07     0.09     0.32     3.79     0.93P   33.59R    8.79  
Tranmere         2    1   -2      -1.80    21.81    -2.07    61.88    11.71    -1.83     0.39     1.46    13.01     3.81P    8.95R    1.16  
Shrewsbury       2    1   -3      -1.04    36.63    -1.90    53.76    11.47   -16.18     0.06     0.25     3.64     0.82P   25.66R    5.01  
Stevenage        2    0   -2      -2.39     8.61    -1.39    54.68    11.71   -12.33     0.07     0.32     4.52     1.02P   23.43R    4.30  
Notts_County     2    0   -3      -2.17    11.93    -1.99    65.11    11.96     3.95     0.77     2.85    20.45     6.69P    5.77R    0.57  
Gillingham       2    0   -5      -1.94    12.54    -3.43    46.94    12.07   -28.14     0.02     0.08     1.37     0.33P   48.70R   15.63  
Carlisle         2    0   -8      -2.30    11.03    -7.19    44.95    11.57   -39.51     0.00     0.04     0.75     0.12P   55.89R   19.78  
Coventry         2   -7   +0     -10.00     0.00    -0.39    60.62    12.26    11.29     0.45     1.48    12.71     4.49P   11.54R    1.85  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 10 August 2013, AFC_Wimbledon 1 0 Wycombe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Oxford_Utd            2    6   +4       3.49    95.27     4.41    71.68    11.27    12.50     6.51    22.59    51.90    29.48P    0.65R    0.22  
Fleetwood_Town        2    6   +4       3.03    92.52     3.62    66.08    11.23     3.86     2.49    10.85    32.56    15.29P    2.01R    0.72  
Chesterfield          2    6   +4       2.86    91.25     3.43    79.29    11.13    23.73    19.74    47.32    76.85    56.03P    0.08R    0.02  
Southend              2    6   +2       2.92    92.10     1.48    74.84    11.39    15.10    10.83    31.92    62.51    40.13P    0.30R    0.08  
Scunthorpe            2    4   +2       0.34    60.56     0.55    77.59    12.29    22.49    18.44    42.44    70.27    51.04P    0.26R    0.08  
Burton_Albion         2    4   +1       1.40    79.74     1.21    64.16    11.54     0.28     2.09     8.73    27.22    12.72P    3.46R    1.31  
AFC_Wimbledon         2    4   +1       1.67    83.99     1.63    54.98    11.10   -14.32     0.29     1.57     7.93     2.66P   14.21R    6.37  
Exeter                2    4   +1       0.71    67.06     0.19    68.10    11.24     6.93     3.62    14.41    39.50    20.50P    1.27R    0.37  
Rochdale              2    3   +2       0.16    51.39     1.89    68.68    11.60    10.24     4.56    16.38    42.02    22.86P    1.42R    0.50  
Newport_County        2    3   +1       0.90    66.55     2.16    44.08    11.42   -32.42     0.03     0.26     1.41     0.44P   48.88R   32.52  
Northampton           2    3   +1      -0.43    38.46    -0.16    63.28    11.34     0.81     1.58     7.28    25.27    11.30P    3.52R    1.21  
Dag_&_Red             2    3   +0       0.30    54.41     0.07    58.39    11.16    -7.40     0.61     2.98    13.17     4.90P    8.29R    3.52  
Wycombe               2    3   +0       0.01    48.27    -0.36    62.62    11.05    -0.61     1.27     6.07    22.18     9.70P    3.81R    1.42  
York                  2    3   -1       0.57    60.18    -0.59    54.26    10.64   -13.56     0.13     1.04     6.35     2.01P   14.22R    6.18  
Torquay               2    2   +0      -1.01    29.30    -0.43    61.84    11.17    -0.30     1.13     5.77    20.71     9.22P    4.44R    1.67  
Bristol_Rovers        2    1   -1      -1.20    32.67    -0.18    58.72    11.41    -5.19     0.64     3.45    14.34     5.78P    8.34R    3.39  
Morecambe             2    1   -1      -1.60    24.20    -0.84    58.26    11.12    -5.24     0.54     2.92    13.00     5.17P    8.48R    3.47  
Cheltenham            2    1   -2      -1.59    23.90    -1.80    63.31    11.26     1.31     1.47     7.10    24.69    11.42P    3.61R    1.26  
Mansfield             2    1   -2      -0.87    39.28    -0.56    49.30    11.63   -20.78     0.12     0.72     3.65     1.29P   30.38R   16.82  
Accrington_Stanley    2    1   -3      -1.42    29.41    -2.49    52.16    10.95   -17.68     0.11     0.84     4.87     1.59P   20.26R    9.44  
Portsmouth            2    1   -3      -2.57    11.87    -4.24    76.93    12.49    21.92    17.29    40.47    68.05    49.13P    0.40R    0.13  
Bury                  2    0   -3      -2.56     7.67    -2.73    66.42    12.43     6.42     3.84    13.76    35.78    19.79P    3.16R    1.25  
Plymouth              2    0   -3      -2.31     8.19    -2.43    54.12    10.76   -10.95     0.15     1.11     6.33     2.19P   14.79R    6.56  
Hartlepool            2    0   -4      -2.60     6.93    -3.81    64.53    12.10     2.85     2.52    10.02    29.45    15.35P    3.76R    1.49  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 13 August 2013, Aldershot 3 0 Dartford; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Southport         2    6   +2       3.33    93.31     2.16    62.97    11.19    -5.52     0.63     9.47     1.79P    4.34R    0.62  
Forest_Green      2    4   +8       0.25    60.24     6.19    75.53    11.16    26.40     7.48    43.31    15.70P    0.23R    0.02  
Barnet            2    4   +3      -0.13    50.76     0.55    83.84    11.67    35.39    25.07    70.71    38.99P    0.06R    0.01  
Braintree_Town    2    4   +2       1.31    82.38     2.17    62.11    11.18    -2.68     0.62     8.39     1.73P    4.85R    0.74  
Hereford          2    4   +2       0.29    58.76     0.46    73.49    11.17    17.31     5.08    35.52    11.65P    0.40R    0.02  
Grimsby           2    4   +1       1.10    74.06     0.74    79.87    10.96    26.58    13.26    58.00    24.65P    0.07R    0.01  
Nuneaton          2    4   +1       1.79    85.58     1.77    59.14    10.73    -7.49     0.20     4.64     0.78P    7.31R    1.07  
Lincoln_City      2    4   +1       1.17    76.43     0.93    62.78    11.00    -1.89     0.56     9.05     1.78P    4.16R    0.62  
Tamworth          2    4   +1       1.71    83.62     1.61    56.63    10.73   -11.74     0.14     2.89     0.45P   10.80R    1.79  
Cambridge_Utd     1    3   +4       0.69    64.11     2.33    68.76    11.47    10.36     2.39    22.01     6.05P    1.46R    0.18  
Alfreton_Town     2    3   +1       0.77    63.73     1.85    59.54    11.18    -7.07     0.31     5.55     1.05P    7.67R    1.33  
Luton             2    3   +1      -0.62    34.84    -0.45    73.77    11.04    18.15     5.33    36.17    12.38P    0.40R    0.04  
Kidderminster     2    3   +0      -0.66    34.16    -1.47    79.59    11.00    27.80    13.03    57.37    24.58P    0.08R    0.00  
Wrexham           2    3   +0      -1.14    24.79    -2.33    79.54    10.80    26.63    12.51    57.39    25.19P    0.06R    0.00  
Dartford          2    3   -2       0.65    61.30    -1.23    60.92    11.03    -6.34     0.34     6.68     1.23P    5.81R    0.83  
Halifax           2    3   -3       1.45    77.11    -0.77    48.44    12.85   -33.46     0.10     1.56     0.28P   36.97R   13.48  
Woking            2    1   -2      -1.49    26.43    -1.48    53.93    11.04   -16.54     0.11     2.02     0.36P   17.56R    3.79  
Welling           1    0   -1      -0.43    37.54     0.78    49.23    13.07   -23.96     0.09     1.98     0.36P   33.84R   12.02  
Macclesfield      2    0   -2      -2.91     4.93    -2.22    60.97    11.05    -1.11     0.41     6.90     1.60P    5.60R    0.87  
Gateshead         2    0   -3      -1.94    12.33    -1.60    58.32    11.05    -6.71     0.23     4.35     0.79P    8.91R    1.54  
Salisbury         2    0   -3      -2.04    10.79    -1.69    43.90    12.15   -32.05     0.02     0.55     0.09P   50.34R   21.36  
Chester           2    0   -5      -1.46    18.43    -2.50    42.85    12.17   -37.10     0.01     0.39     0.05P   54.25R   24.84  
Hyde_United       2    0   -9      -2.02    12.34    -7.49    45.56    10.68   -37.85     0.00     0.31     0.04P   44.62R   14.79  
Aldershot         2   -6   +3      -9.50     0.00     1.70    78.31    11.43    42.88    12.08    54.80    28.43P    0.22R    0.02  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10